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Vietnam Replacing China As Key Link In Global Supply Chains Vietnam is turning into a production powerhouse for the world as a result of the U.S. trade war, , according to Caixin. For example, once a farming region, Bac Ninh has become northern Vietnam’s industrial hub, driven by Chinese manufacturers relocating operations south to avoid U.S. tariffs and diversify supply chains. The shift began with the U.S.-China trade war and has accelerated as clients pressure suppliers to set up in Vietnam. “When the trade tensions began in 2018, one client suggested we look into Vietnam,” said Li Fangting of Mingjie, a Dongguan-based plastics maker. “After the pandemic, those suggestions turned into demands. Some clients said we wouldn't be considered for new orders unless we had a presence in Vietnam.” Mingjie now produces in Bac Ninh for U.S. and European markets. But costs are rising. Industrial land in Bac Ninh is pricier than in many Chinese regions, and wages are catching up. Some firms now produce goods costlier than their Chinese equivalents, relying on tariff gaps that could vanish overnight. In April, the U.S. slapped a 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports, later trimmed to 20%. Despite these pressures, northern Vietnam is emerging as a “world assembler.” Samsung, which has invested over $23 billion since 2008, anchors a cluster of electronics producers, joined by Apple suppliers like Foxconn, Goertek, and Luxshare. “Over the past few years, we’ve seen a surge in supply chain companies, logistics providers, and packaging firms entering Vietnam, following in the footsteps of their major clients,” said Anchalee Prasertchand of Thailand’s WHA Group. Caixin writes that supply chains remain incomplete, forcing many manufacturers to import components from China. In textiles, 80% of yarn still comes from China, said Tian of Hechang Threads Dyeing. Furniture is more self-sufficient, with 90% of inputs sourced locally, though steel and panels remain scarce. As one factory owner put it: “In fact, the global center of furniture production shifted from Dongguan to Binh Duong by 2018. This industry won’t be going back to China.” Even with higher costs, Vietnam’s tariff advantage sustains momentum. Executives estimate Vietnamese goods are 15% more expensive than Chinese ones, but with U.S. tariffs averaging 57.6% on Chinese products versus 20% on Vietnamese, the gap is decisive. Chinese firms are also eyeing Vietnam’s domestic market of 100 million people. “Trade wars may be the spark, but going overseas is really about tapping global markets — not just the U.S., but also Europe and Southeast Asia,” said Niu Qiang of KCN Investment Consulting. “For Chinese companies, this is the true start of globalization.” Automakers highlight the shift. Shineray Motors, which entered in 2018, adapted trucks for local roads and weather. Its mini-commercial vehicles now hold 30% of Vietnam’s market. “Now is a good time to lay the groundwork for the passenger car and new energy vehicle market,” said general manager Wang Lu. Giants like Geely and Great Wall are also investing, cementing Vietnam’s role as both a manufacturing hub and consumer battleground. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 18:50
Democrat Extremism Underwrites Trump Authored by J.T. Young via RealClearPolitics, Democrats’ extremism continues to underwrite Donald Trump’s agenda. Since 2021, this has been the case, and it shows no sign of stopping. Rather than bolstering them as an alternative, Democrats are giving Trump the leverage to pursue his aggressive agenda. President Trump remains divisive. While his job approval and favorability ratings are higher than they were eight years ago, they remain low. According to Real Clear Politics’ August 28 average of national polling, Trump’s approval rating is 45.3%-51.5% for -6.2% net; on August 28, 2017, Trump sat at -16.9%. According to RCP’s polling average of Trump’s favorability, he is 44.3%-52.1%, for -7.8%; on August 28, 2017, Trump was -17.9%. Trump’s 2024 victory was a landslide in swing states and states between the coasts. However, Trump’s win in the popular (below 50%) and in the electoral votes (312-226) was hardly historic. Nor did he bring home large congressional majorities: Republican control of the Senate (by six votes, 53-47) and House (by five votes, 220-215) do not approach past presidents’ majorities. Yet Trump took office governing like FDR in his first 100 days. Now into his third “hundred days,” Trump is still doing so. And this is a president who was twice impeached and once defeated: No impeached president has ever been reelected (let alone a twice-impeached one), and the last time a defeated president was reelected occurred over 130 years ago. How is this continued momentum possible? Democrats’ extremism is making them even less popular. According to a recent WSJ poll, Democrats’ popularity is at a 35-year low. This is no outlier: Other polls show similar results. Between 2020 and 2024, Republicans gained up to 4.5 million registered voters versus Democrats, who saw net losses in all 30 states reviewed by the NYT. And Trump’s 2024 victory was attributable to an overwhelming win in “fly-over” country: The 46 states outside California, New York, Massachusetts, and Washington contain 80.5% of America’s electoral votes; Trump won 72% of them in 2024. The issues that the Biden-Harris ticket lost on last November are the same issues that Democrats are insistent about fighting Trump on now. On illegal immigration, RCP’s average of national polling showed Biden’s last job approval rating was just 33.5%. Yet Democrats continue to challenge Trump at every juncture: They have tried to make Kilmar Abrego Garcia into a martyr; they have stormed ICE detention facilities; they have tried to jeopardize ICE agents’ safety by pushing to bar them from wearing masks. On crime, RCP’s average of national polling showed Biden’s last job approval rating was just 38%. Yet Democrats continue to challenge Trump on his push against crime: They have objected to him deploying the National Guard in Washington, D.C., despite D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser saying it has reduced the city’s crime; and they have threatened to take him to court if he tries to deploy the National Guard in crime-ridden Chicago. The same anti-Trump intransigence has led Democrats to take similarly extremist positions on allowing biological males to compete against biological females (something Americans overwhelmingly oppose), to lock arms against Trump’s push to keep tax rates from rising to pre-2017 levels (every Democrat in the House and Senate voted against it), and for many, to object to his strike against terrorist-backing Iran’s nuclear facilities. Americans oppose allowing biological males to compete against girls and women. RCP’s average of national polling showed Biden’s last job approval rating on the economy – which would have been devastated by the tax hike that would have occurred if Democrats had blocked keeping 2017 tax rates in place – was just 38.8%. The RCP average showed Biden’s last job approval rating on foreign policy – to which America’s support for Israel has been foundational for decades – was a mere 35.6%. Time and time again, Democrats are choosing the wrong side of lopsided issues. In doing so, they are maintaining the margin between themselves and Trump, and they are not giving Americans a plausible alternative to Trump. No alternative means giving Trump all the leverage. There is an old joke about two men encountering a lion. Terrified, the first man whispers to the other man, “What are you going to do?” “Run,” the other man whispers back. The first man responds, “Are you crazy, you can’t outrun a lion!” “I don’t have to outrun the lion,” says the second, “I just have to outrun you.” Right now, Trump is outrunning the Democrats, and the Democrats aren’t even making it a race. J.T. Young is the author of the recent book, Unprecedented Assault: How Big Government Unleashed America’s Socialist Left from RealClear Publishing and has over three decades’ experience working in Congress, the Department of Treasury, the Office of Management, and Budget, and representing a Fortune 20 company. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 18:25
450 Illegal Aliens Arrested At Hyundai Battery Plant In Georgia About 450 illegal aliens were detained in a multi-agency raid at Hyundai's massive construction site for a new EV battery plant in Bryan County, Georgia. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF), along with ICE, the FBI, and other agencies, said the workers were unlawfully employed, prompting investigations into immigration and labor violations. This highlights the need for the Trump administration to crack down on companies that hire illegals, including imposing criminal fines. ATF's field office in Atlanta wrote on X that on Thursday, "A major immigration enforcement operation at the Hyundai mega site battery plant in Bryan County, GA, leading to the apprehension of ~450 unlawful aliens, emphasizing our commitment to community safety." Today, @ATFAtlanta joined HSI, FBI, DEA, ICE, GSP and other agencies in a major immigration enforcement operation at the Hyundai mega site battery plant in Bryan County, GA, leading to the apprehension of ~450 unlawful aliens, emphasizing our commitment to community safety. #ATF pic.twitter.com/su6raLrLu6 September 4, 2025 Hyundai released a statement, quoted by Bloomberg, indicating it was aware of the mass arrests at its mega-site battery plant in Bryan County. Its partner, LG Energy Solution, said it is assessing the situation and coordinating with the Korean government and other authorities. "We are closely monitoring the situation and working to understand the specific circumstances. As of today, it is our understanding that none of those detained is directly employed by Hyundai Motor Company," Hyundai said. Bloomberg noted, "Unauthorized immigrants make up an estimated 5% of the American workforce and the widening crackdown threatens to wipe out hundreds of billions of dollars in economic output." Recall that Hyundai received tax breaks and other incentives to create jobs at the battery plant. Yet, those 450 jobs did not go to Americans, but instead to illegals who likely sent some of their wages overseas. Should Hyundai be held liable? Perhaps the Trump administration should get serious about fining employers who hire illegals and steal American jobs. Related: Illegal Alien Arrested With Arsenal Of Weapons, Ammunition, Cocaine . . . Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 18:00
Do Doctors Make Money Off Vaccines? A Look At Incentives And Bonus Structures Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times, “Doctors are being paid to vaccinate, not to evaluate,” Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said in a recent video. “They’re pressured to follow the money, not the science.” Doctors administer dozens of vaccines to many children in the United States. Adults are also advised to receive multiple shots. Here’s what to know about vaccines and payments. What Does the Literature Say? A review of studies confirms that some doctors profit from vaccinating. In a 2020 paper, researchers found when analyzing three years’ worth of vaccination claims for five Colorado clinics that reimbursements averaged 125 percent of costs, making administering vaccines “financially favorable across the practices.” Another study found that various providers in North Carolina, when receiving the maximum payment for reimbursement from insurers or the government, profited from vaccinating patients. Even if they received the minimum payment, pediatric and family medicine practices still reported positive income, according to the 2019 study. On the other hand, other doctors say the costs of administering certain vaccines to certain people exceed the vaccine payments. In a survey of 34 pediatricians, for instance, more than half said they do not profit from vaccinating, according to a 2009 paper. A number of practitioners have also said they face escalating costs associated with vaccination, such as staffing, leading them to stop or consider stopping providing vaccines to patients with private insurance. Reimbursement for vaccinating patients varies depending on whether patients have private or public insurance. Under a program called Vaccines for Children, the government also provides vaccines to doctors for free. It does not pay for related costs, but doctors can charge an administration fee that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says “helps providers offset their costs of doing business,” with the maximum varying by state. A nurse prepares to give a COVID-19 vaccine to a boy as his mother comforts him in Denver on Nov. 3, 2021. Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images What About Those Bonuses? Doctors can make extra money for vaccinating under incentive programs from insurers, as highlighted by Brian Hooker, a senior scientist with Children’s Health Defense—a group Kennedy chaired through 2023—and other witnesses during a hearing in July on vaccines held by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.). “Some pediatricians can make upwards to a million or more a year just in those incentives,” Hooker said. Asked for citations, Hooker pointed The Epoch Times to documents he collected from insurance companies that list available bonuses. Links to those and other documents that outline incentives and are available online are provided below: Blue Cross Blue Shield Blue Care Network of Michigan: $400 per child who receives a set of 24 or 25 vaccine doses on or before their second birthday. Aetna Better Health of Louisiana: $10–$25 per member, depending on level of COVID-19 vaccination coverage practice-wide. Molina Healthcare of Ohio: $100 incentive for COVID-19 vaccination. Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield Medicaid: $50 per individual aged 6 months and older who received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, 2022. United Healthcare Community Plan of Michigan: Incentives for patients who receive the meningococcal, Tdap (tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis), and HPV vaccines by their 13th birthday. Meridian: Up to $120 per child who receives the 24 or 25 doses by their second birthday, or adolescents who received three certain doses by their 13th birthday, capped at $9,600 for each category. BlueCross BlueShield of Illinois: $149 for each child, if 63 percent or more meet criteria, who received the 24 or 25 vaccine doses by the time they turn 2. Central California Alliance for Health: Bonuses for children who receive at least 24 doses by the time they turn 2 and the three certain doses before they turn 13. The sets of vaccines for which providers receive bonuses are recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dr. Paul Thomas, who ran a pediatric practice in Oregon, estimated in a 2021 study that he was losing more than $1 million a year by offering parents what he called informed consent, or detailed discussions about the benefits and risks of the recommended vaccines. Thomas—who surrendered his license in 2022 after the Oregon Medical Board determined that his alternative vaccination schedule posed a danger to the public—told The Epoch Times in an email that he was forced to work harder, freeze salaries, and impose an administration fee on every patient to cover income he did not receive due to administering fewer vaccines than many practices. Thomas has said he was unfairly targeted, in litigation denied by courts that found the board is protected by “absolute immunity.” People attend an American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) conference in Anaheim, Calif., on Oct. 8, 2022. AAP, as well as some other groups and doctors, have said physicians are not motivated by money when vaccinating patients. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times “It would be near impossible for current pediatric practices to survive if not clearly impossible if they were to suddenly lose half or all their vaccine income, not to mention the catastrophic nature of loss of ‘quality’ bonuses,” Thomas said. Dr. Renata Moon, who sits on the board of directors for the American College of Pediatricians, said that her former employer in 2020 started tracking the vaccination rate for patients. She was unable to determine why and said she would not be surprised if they were receiving compensation. “It is unethical for physicians to receive bonuses or monetary compensation for pushing the products of pharmaceutical companies. It’s a massive conflict of interest!” Moon told The Epoch Times via email. “Do they have the patient’s best interest at heart or are they focused on their bank accounts?” What Do Other Doctors Say? The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), as well as some other groups and doctors, have said physicians are not motivated by money when vaccinating patients. “Pediatricians do not profit off vaccines,” the AAP said in a July 16 post on X. The organization declined to make one of its experts available for an interview on the topic. When a spokeswoman was sent studies, including multiple published by the AAP’s journal Pediatrics, that show some pediatricians have made money from vaccinating, she pointed to an AAP webpage that states “pediatricians recommend childhood vaccines because they are one of our most effective tools to help keep children healthy and prevent diseases from spreading in communities.” It also states, “pediatricians often take on significant costs to provide the vaccinations their patients need, and the minimal payments they receive do not always cover these costs.” Among the costs, the group said: purchasing vaccines and storing them. Dr. Todd Porter, a pediatrician employed in Illinois for a multi-specialty physician-led organization, said that he has not paid attention to whether he makes money from vaccinating children. Doses of H1N1 influenza vaccine sit in a basket at Rush University Medical Center in Chicago on Oct. 6, 2009. Scott Olson/Getty Images “I have to surprisingly side with the AAP on this one even though I no longer support the AAP on just about everything else,” Porter told The Epoch Times in an email. “As a pediatrician, my recommendation of routine childhood vaccines has nothing to do any reimbursement my office may receive and again I can honestly say I have no working knowledge of what that reimbursement would be.” Porter says he has been motivated for the more than 20 years he has worked as a doctor to provide vaccines to minimize vaccine-preventable disease. He has never recommended the COVID-19 vaccines and believes the CDC and AAP did not provide adequate details around the risks and benefits of the shots. “I have become a bit uncertain about the risk/benefit of each of the vaccines. I still would recommend these historical routine childhood vaccines, but with the growing vaccine hesitancy amongst parents I do not push them,” he wrote. “I also have stopped generally recommending the influenza vaccine until I see more rigorous data to show that it really works.” Vaccination rates among kindergartners have declined in recent years, and a third of parents in a recent survey said they would be refusing some or all vaccines for their children. Kennedy’s Statements Kennedy has spoken several times recently about the payments for vaccinations. During an interview released in June with political commentator Tucker Carlson, he mentioned an article stating half of the revenue for most pediatricians comes from vaccines. The Department of Health and Human Services did not respond to a request for that alleged article. “And then there’s a whole structure where Blue Cross and the other insurance companies pay bonuses to the pediatrician ... and that’s why your pediatrician, if you say, ‘I want to go slow on the vaccines,’ or, ‘I want to have a little different schedule,’ your pediatrician will throw you out of his practice because you’re now jeopardizing that bonus structure,” Kennedy said. “And these are all perverse incentives that stop doctors from actually practicing medicine and caring for the client because they’re looking at the bottom line.” Twenty-one percent of pediatricians told surveyors that they dismissed families who declined one or more vaccines, Dr. Sean O'Leary, the current chair of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases, reported in a 2015 study. A 2020 review co-authored by O'Leary found evidence that dismissing families “appears to be increasing as a strategy for dealing with vaccine refusal.” A form dismissal letter offered to doctors by the AAP states, “It has become clear that our philosophies regarding medical care differ greatly.” The letter directs parents to arrange for medical care for their children elsewhere. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington on June 24, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times O'Leary and other AAP officials said in a 2024 report that there are ethical issues about dismissing families, including whether doctors have a responsibility to care for all patients who come to them, Dismissal, they wrote, “can be an acceptable option ... after repeated attempts to help understand and address parental values and vaccine concerns, engender trust, and strengthen the therapeutic alliance.” Kennedy added in the X video on Aug. 8 that “we’re scanning every corner of the health care system for hidden incentives that corrupt medical judgment” and that officials had found “doctors are being paid to vaccinate, not to evaluate.” He said that officials discovered that more than 36,000 doctors had reimbursements from Medicare altered based on the vaccination rates of children in their practices. The video was released as Kennedy announced officials were repealing a previous policy that favored hospitals that reported the vaccination rates of staff members. “Doctors should be guided by medical judgment and their Hippocratic Oath, not by financial incentives or government mandates,” Kennedy said. “That’s what this policy change is about, and it’s just the beginning.” Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 17:40
California To Spend $239 Million Turning San Quentin Into "Scandinavian-Style Rehab Center" California is spending $239 million to transform San Quentin State Prison into what Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office once called the state’s “most notorious prison” into a Scandinavian-style rehabilitation center. Construction is set to finish in January 2026, with the first incarcerated people moving in soon after, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. The Chronicle writes that the plan dates back to Newsom’s 2018 election, when he halted executions, began dismantling Death Row, and ordered transfers of San Quentin inmates. In 2023, he unveiled a full-scale conversion into a Nordic-inspired campus aimed at preparing prisoners for life outside. Modeled after systems in Norway, Denmark, and other Nordic countries, the project emphasizes rehabilitation through work, education, and “normalizing spaces” such as a self-service grocery store, café, farmers market, and podcast studio. Prisoners will have single rooms, reducing San Quentin’s population from 3,400 to about 2,400. “The holistic initiative leverages international, data-backed best practices to improve the well-being of those who live and work at state prisons,” said Todd Javernick, a spokesperson for the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. He added the goal is “creating safer communities and a better life for all Californians, by breaking cycles of crime for the incarcerated population, while improving workplace conditions for institution staff.” The state hired Danish architecture firm Schmidt Hammer Lassen and convened an advisory council of reform advocates, which recommended measures like making “good nutrition foundational to the San Quentin experience.” Supporters hope the California Model will serve as a national blueprint, but critics argue the money should instead go to crime victims. Families of incarcerated people also worry transfers will send loved ones far from spouses and children. San Quentin has already shifted from maximum to medium security, allowing in prisoners deemed lower-risk. Officials also note that closing Death Row reduces costs, as housing death-sentenced inmates can be twice as expensive. The redesign includes three new buildings for media production, coding classrooms, a large multipurpose hall, café, and store. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 17:20
Quinn: WW3 Is Inevitable, Compromise Isn't An Option During 'The Fourth Turning' Authored by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog, Fourth Turnings never fizzle out. They build to a crescendo of death and destruction. Is there any indications whatsoever that we are not on a course towards all-out war? How it started... "We gave categorical assurances to Gorbachev that if a United Germany could remain in NATO, NATO would not be moved Eastward" Jack Matlock, US Ambassador to the Soviets 1987-1991 speaking 30 years ago. "We gave categorical assurances to Gorbachev that if a United Germany could remain in NATO, NATO would not be moved Eastward" Jack Matlock, US Ambassador to the Soviets 1987-1991 speaking 30 years ago NATO did, however, move Eastwards towards Russia, and the rest is history pic.twitter.com/21EjyDetYm September 3, 2025 NATO did, however, move Eastwards towards Russia, and the rest is history How's it going? Professor Jeffrey Sachs explains: Now, we have the return of the most primitive kind of Russophobia imaginable. So Europe meets, as, as you note, every two or three days in terror of Russia with these fools around the table, without talking to the Russians at all. If you just watch these people, they don't know anything, and they don't want to learn anything, and they don't want to hear anything. And especially, in Europe, the most desperate thing is, for God's sake, don't talk to the other side. It may be a little annoying. And so we actually have a spectacle of grown people like Starmer, Merz, Macron, grown people that won't even have ... a discussion with President Putin. Professor Jeffrey Sachs "FIRED" Starmer, Merz & Macron Now, we have the return of the most primitive kind of Russophobia imaginable. So Europe meets, as, as you note, every two or three days in terror of Russia with these fools around the table, without talking to the Russians… pic.twitter.com/GVUrNc69uy September 4, 2025 And what happens next? Dmitry Medvedev: "The United Kingdom has sent Ukraine $1.3 billion obtained as profit from the use of frozen Russian assets. This was said by the English idiot Lammy. Well, this means one thing: British thieves have handed over Russian money to the neo-Nazis. The consequences? Britain has committed an offense, and Russia has, as lawyers say, a claim against it and the current Banderite Ukraine. But considering that these funds cannot be recovered through legal proceedings for obvious reasons, our country has only one way to reclaim the assets. To return what was seized in kind. That is, with "Ukrainian land" and other real estate and movable property located on it. (I am obviously not talking about the lands of the new Russian regions, they are already ours.) So any illegal seizure of arrested Russian funds or income from them must be converted into additional territories and other property of country 404. Or by confiscating the valuables of the British Crown. There are still enough of them in various places, including those located in Russia." The path has been set on the Fourth Turning - it's now when not if. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 17:00
The Power-Bill Crisis Keeps Energy Secretary Wright Up At Night Weeks after Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Glenn Beck that the power-bill crisis would last for "a few years," America's top energy official told Fox Business on Tuesday that rising electricity costs remain his top concern. "It's what I worry about most seven days a week," Wright told Fox Business' Maria Bartiromo. "We want to stop the rise in electricity for Americans and reshore jobs and opportunity there." The Trump administration is racing to restore and expand stable fossil-fuel power generation (see the EO), after parts of the nation's grid were left in a fragile state by the Biden-Harris regime's unreliable green-energy policies, amid surging power demand from data center buildouts - all in an effort to compete with China. In mid-August, Goldman analysts led by Hongcen Wei told clients, "We find that 9 out of 13 US regional power markets have already reached critical tightness this summer, while expecting all but one to reach critical tightness by 2030." Wei warned: "Critical tightness could lead to power price spikes and blackouts with significant social and economic losses." By the end of the summer, nine of the 13 U.S. regional power grids have already reached dangerously low spare capacity levels, which are at or below the critical reliability threshold. This raises blackout threats and results in power price spikes during high-demand usage hours. This tightening is most evident in the Mid-Atlantic region... The epicenter of the power crisis is in Maryland. Bloomberg suggested earlier that the power bill crisis could become a political liability for Republicans ahead of the midterms. However, the real-world example playing out in Maryland shows it's hurting Democrats bigly. Maryland Democrats are pointing fingers at the regional grid operator. Still, it was their own party that spent years championing unreliable solar and wind while retiring coal plants, leaving the grid in a state of chaos - on the brink of collapse last month (read here). Now comes the informational war used by both parties that will blame each other for the power bill mess. In one year, this will be the most popular chart on this site pic.twitter.com/h93gWXMoNL August 11, 2025 Wright told Congress earlier this year that solar and wind subsidies have been disastrous for the grid. Lobbyists' worst nightmare: 4 minutes of Energy Secretary Chris Wright telling Congress why solar and wind subsidies must be terminated ASAP. pic.twitter.com/GlBNv75pDp June 11, 2025 Recently, Wright told Fox Business about Trump's plan to add "more energy to the grid." Sec. Chris Wright: "For 30 years... we've paid people to build intermittent sources that only work when the wind's blowing or when the sun's shining. The more of that you put on the grid, the more expensive electricity becomes for Americans."pic.twitter.com/P0iXZKlFMj July 2, 2025 . . . Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 16:40
The Grifters' Lament Authored by James Howard Kunstler, "We are the sickest country in the world. That's why we have to fire people at the CDC ... They did not do their job! This was their job to keep us healthy!" - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. What a gruesome spectacle it was to see HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. take on a conclave of vicious grifters on the Senate Finance Committee straining to warp reality in defense of their mighty patron, the nation-wrecking pharmaceutical companies. Do you understand how deep, convoluted, and grave the political sickness is? Over the years, the public health agencies and “big pharma” had evolved into a symbiotic vector driving the nation into chronic illness. They allowed the population to poison themselves on a diet of corn syrup, engineered snack foods, and chemical additives. Result: epidemic obesity, diabetes, and many other illnesses. To counter that, they dosed everybody to-the-max with sketchily-tested pharma products while the agency employees raked in royalties and pharma got a get-outa-jail-free card in the 1986 National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act (NCVIA) — legal liability cancelled. Then, they all badly mis-stepped, conniving in the Covid-19 operation, a still poorly-comprehended scheme to punk the American people and enable mail-in ballot fraud to steal the 2020 election. First, there was Dr. Fauci’s years’ long effort to hatch a novel corona virus, Covid-19, in labs here and overseas. Then, there was the opportune release of the virus in 2019. Then, the pharma response to the virus: a “miracle” mRNA vaccine that was likely already developed in secret, even before Operation Warp Speed was acted-out to pretend that pharma just came up with it. And, of course, there was President Trump 1.0 getting hosed by his Covid Response Team (Fauci, Birx, et al.) on all this. Thus, you have that battery of US Senators all paid handsomely by Pharma to defend the industry with hysterical obfuscation against the lone figure, Mr. Kennedy, striving to correct all that fantastic corruption. He retorted to their malign nonsense honorably, revealing their conflicts of interest, their cupidity, the bales of dollars paid by pharma to the likes of Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and the rest over the years, and their longstanding silence on the afore-mentioned poisoning and drugging of America. Incidentally, to understand how this grift got so exorbitant, look to the unfortunate 2010 Supreme Court decision Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (558 U.S. 310). In a 5-4 ruling (by majority conservative justices, then including Alito, Thomas, and Scalia), SCOTUS decided that previous prohibitions on corporate money in election campaigns were unconstitutional because corporations enjoy legal status as persons, that is, as citizens, and giving money to election campaigns is a form of free speech under the first Amendment, which can’t be abridged by any law. And so, the spigot opened on vast fortunes laid on politicians by corporations seeking to protect their interests. If anything went to warp speed, it was the Beltway lobbying industry. The Citizens United decision was a singular tragedy for our country. The legal reasoning behind it was specious because corporations, unlike real human citizens, do not have duties, obligations, and responsibilities to the nation, entailed in their citizenship. Rather, corporations have duties, obligations, and responsibilities solely (and explicitly in law) to their shareholders, whose interests are not necessarily consistent with the public interest. Why has no one noticed this? Well, they haven’t and that is exactly where American politics went badly off-the-rails. The resulting accelerated corruption in the public health agencies of our government has been a disgusting side effect of all that, which RFK, Jr., has been called to clean up, a Herculean task. The most visible manifestation of that corruption is the chronic illness of the people — 76.4 percent of all of us, he told the committee, with eight out of ten young men physically unfit for military service. We’re the sickest nation in the world. When the senators confabulate over “the science,” what they really mean is the armature of medical authority that has enabled the money-flow to their campaign committees (and eventually to their own bank accounts.) It’s that very scaffold of authority that has collapsed. Why? Because the medical authorities lied over and over about the Covid-19 episode, and especially about the vaccines, which were never properly tested, and were neither safe nor effective. Your own doctors got paid extravagantly to push the vaccine. The so-called Pfizer Papers, collected, collated, and analyzed by Naomi Wolf’s organization (because nobody else would do it) showed the sloppiness of the whole process behind the vaccines’ development and release, and the pharma companies’ evasion of responsibility for the damage done. The medical journals lied about everything from the origin of the virus to the efficacy of the vaccine. The CDC campaigned against viable, inexpensive treatments for the virus. The CDC pushed the worthless, gamed PCR tests to jack up the case numbers. The CDC pushed the idiotic mask rules, school closings, business closures, and the vaccine mandates. The hospitals killed people with remdesivir and respirators, and got paid for it! The authority of all these parties is blown, especially the CDC’s — and these perfidious senators have the gall to hide behind this “science”? What Mr. Kennedy is challenged with is sorting through all the official lies told by these agencies — the so-called “data” — to arrive at a comprehensible picture of what really happened. And then to inquire beyond Covid into many other pharma products that might be making Americans sick. Neither the politicians nor the people employed by the agencies when Covid went down want that to happen. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 16:20
Tether, El Salvador Deepening Ties To Gold, The 'Natural Bitcoin' Authored by Vince Dioquino via Decrypt.co, Stablecoin issuer Tether has held talks on investing in gold miners and royalty firms, after already acquiring $8.7 billion worth of bullion. Meanwhile, El Salvador bought nearly 14,000 ounces of gold for $50 million, its first central bank purchase since 1990. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has previously described gold as “natural Bitcoin,” and suggested in a separate interview that if a global “reset” were to occur, it would “happen in gold.” Tether, the world’s largest stablecoin issuer, has reportedly been in discussions with mining and investment groups to deploy billions into the gold industry, according to a Financial Times report late Thursday. The talks reportedly span mining, refining, trading, and royalty companies, following chief executive Paolo Ardoino’s view of gold as “the natural Bitcoin.” “I prefer to think in Bitcoin terms, and I think gold is kind of a resource of nature and is almost like the natural Bitcoin,” Ardoino said onstage at the Bitcoin 2025 conference back in May. Tether is also moving to deepen its role in the sector, planning to spend about $100 million more to increase its previous 37.8% stake in Toronto-listed Elemental Altus Royalties, a Canadian firm that buys future revenue streams from gold mines, according to a report from Bloomberg early Friday. "Access to capital is one of the key constraints in the royalty and streaming business; Tether’s support is fully aligned with our growth strategy," David Baker, CFO at Elemental Altus Royalties, said in a statement shared with Decrypt. He added that, "Since their first investment in June, Tether has been very supportive of the company and management," noting that prior to the merger announcement the firm had announced almost $70 million of gold royalty acquisitions in Australia and Liberia. Tether is already among the world’s biggest private holders of the metal. The company disclosed $8.7 billion in gold bars held in a Zurich vault in its Q2 2025 attestation report, collateralizing part of its operations. In 2020, the firm launched Tether Gold, a gold-backed stablecoin backed by more than 7.7 tons of the precious metal, according to an April 2025 attestation report by accounting firm BDO Italia. Tether did not immediately return Decrypt's request for comment. El Salvador’s first gold buy in 35 years Tether’s gold push comes as Banco Central de Reserva, El Salvador's central bank, announced its first bullion purchase in 35 years, buying 13,999 troy ounces for $50 million, raising the country’s holdings to 58,105 ounces, worth an estimated $207 million. The central bank characterized the purchase as a diversification play for its $4.7 billion in foreign reserves, according to a syndicated report from Agencia EFE. El Salvador has already accumulated more than 6,200 bitcoin, now valued at over $706 million based on current prices, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. Earlier this week, the country’s Bitcoin Office confirmed that it has moved its crypto holdings to new addresses, following security concerns. These moves suggest that large sovereign Bitcoin holders, such as El Salvador, and major crypto industry names, including Tether, are beginning to frame gold as a complementary hedge, treating it less as a rival asset and more as a partner in diversification strategies. A source working on Tether's regional expansion efforts declined to comment, citing internal policies, and instead directed Decrypt to Ardoino’s interview with Anthony Pompliano in August, where he argued that gold could be viewed as a counterweight to fiat, not a rival to Bitcoin. In the interview, Ardoino suggested traders might choose to rotate into bullion at cycle peaks, given its 6,000-year history and scale as a reserve asset. “There is time for everything, and I think that when [...] if the world will go to hell in the next 5 years, there’s good chances that part of the reset will happen in gold,” Ardoino said. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 15:45
Akin To Damaging 'Brand USA': Bessent Exposes Cracks In Fed's So-Called 'Independence' Amid all the hair-pulling and teeth-gnashing over President Trump's 'firing' of Fed Governor Lisa Cook (for alleged mortgage fraud), the market seems increasingly complacent that The Fed's holier-than-thou independence is under threat. For its part, the market shows no fear whatsoever about USA sovereign risk... Perhaps the market doesn't believe the hype that Fed 'independence' is actually under threat by the president's actions... or perhaps, the market knows full well that The Fed has never been truly independent, and the temper tantrums being thrown by establishment types is merely the vinegar strokes ending the delusion that maintains The Fed's unquestionable omniscience? First things first though, we need to know what's at stake and no one has described the shifts in perceptions of Fed independence better recently than Citadel Securities' Nohshad Shah: RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS, GLOBAL LEADERSHIP IN TECH INNOVATION, THE WORLD’S BEST ACADEMIC INSTITUTIONS, BEING A MAGNET FOR GLOBAL TALENT…AND CRUCIALLY, THE RULE OF LAW WITH INDEPENDENT INSTITUTIONS…HAVE COMBINED TO ENSURE THAT THE US HAS BEEN THE MOST COMPETITIVE PLACE ON EARTH TO DO BUSINESS AND GROWTH HAS EXCEEDED MOST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD BY A WIDE MARGIN…OTHERWISE KNOWN AS “US EXCEPTIONALISM”. A core part of this construct is the independence of the Federal Reserve, and this remains sacrosanct in the minds of global investors. There is concern amongst market participants that President Trump’s recent move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook could be an attempt to garner greater influence over central bank policy. Whilst the merits of the case will surely be analysed thoroughly by the courts, markets are uneasy about the broader emphasis of this Administration on Unitary Executive Theory…the constitutional doctrine that the US President holds sole absolute authority over the entire executive branch including all federal agencies, departments, and officers…and the power to remove any executive branch official at will. Proponents of this doctrine argue it is vested in the President from Article II of the Constitution and that other branches of government (including Congress and Courts) should not limit or interfere with Presidential Authority, thereby ensuring maximum accountability…ultimately to voters. Of course, as with much of US public discourse, this is a contentious issue with critics warning that it concentrates too much power in one seat undermining checks and balances, risking authoritarianism. In the near-term, should the President succeed in removing Cook, he would be appointing two new governors (including Miran), which when you include Governors Waller and Bowman, takes him to a majority of four out of seven on the Board aligned with his views. Not only does this have an impact on upcoming FOMC decisions, but it allows Trump to re-shape the entire FOMC given the Board must reappoint all regional Fed presidents in February next year. However, there are several obstacles. First, it is unclear if Cook’s firing will stand – the President can fire a Fed member for “cause”, but there remains uncertainty around whether the mortgage fraud allegations made against Cook meet this definition: negligence of duty, inefficiency, or malfeasance. Friday’s initial hearing of the case ended without a ruling – we will learn more in coming days. There is also a broader executive authority consideration for the Supreme Court, which in May allowed the President to fire two members of the NLRB, asserting that agencies exercising “considerable executive power” fall closer to Article II authority in a boon to unitary executive theory… BUT…earmarking the Federal Reserve as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States” suggesting a carve out of sorts for the Fed due to it being a constitutionally exceptional institution with roots in the country’s earliest banking history. Interestingly, Justice Kavanaugh has written approvingly of the Fed’s independence in the past (h/t Brooke Cucinella): “To be sure, in some situations it may be worthwhile to insulate particular agencies from direct presidential oversight or control—the Federal Reserve Board may be one example, due to its power to directly affect the short-term functioning of the U.S. economy by setting interest rates and adjusting the money supply.” (Brett M. Kavanaugh, Separation of Powers During the Forty-Fourth Presidency and Beyond, 93 Minn. L. Rev. 1454, 1474 (2009)). So even with SCOTUS’ broader embrace of unitary executive doctrine, we remain in murky waters as to where this issue lands. Second, whilst Governors Waller and Bowman are currently firmly in the dovish camp, this was certainly not always the case…indeed when inflation surged in 2021, Waller was an early proponent for tightening monetary policy pushing for both tapering asset purchases and aggressive rate hikes in 2022. Similarly, Bowman’s stance until late 2023 was hawkish. The point here is that whilst there might be short-term incentives to be dovish given the backdrop of Chair selection, both are seasoned professionals with a track-record of public service…so if the economic growth and inflation picture shifts (as I expect), so should their monetary policy views. And finally, regarding the election of regional fed bank presidents…the Board of governors does indeed have an effective veto on appointments, but it will not be trivial to exert influence upon each of the 12 regional bank boards of directors, with a total of 6 per board (72 directors in total, most of them public representatives) required to affect the selection process. In sum, I expect this to be an ongoing saga to be played out in the courts in coming months whilst remaining a source of uncertainty and volatility for asset prices. ANY EROSION OF FED INDEPENDENCE WILL HAVE UNTOLD IMPLICATIONS FOR THE US AND GLOBAL ECONOMIES… ...and this is starting to play out in market pricing…1y1y USD forward swaps are 3.02%, priced for a return of policy rates back to what most consider neutral…something I would consider to be a dovish outcome, given the current backdrop for the US economy (unless the labour market collapses in coming months)…and yet 10y10y forward swaps have risen to 4.66%, the highest in over a decade (chart below). This likely reflects a level of concern from bond markets around deficits (which continue to rise)….inflation (above target and at-risk of rising w/tariff effects)…and risk premium for Fed independence. It also serves as a reminder for policymakers that the economy is most impacted by the long-end rate not the short-end (10x multiplier for FCI). Whilst these levels are still within acceptable ranges, one need only look over the pond at the UK to see what happens when investors are perennially concerned about governments’ ability to manage the fiscal outlook…30y Gilt yields (5.60%) have been rising consistently for four years now and have risen over 100bps since July 2024 when the BOE started cutting policy rates from 5.25% to 4.00%! Perhaps the biggest sign for US policymakers should be the ~13% depreciation of the US dollar against EUR this year, far outpacing what interest rate differentials would suggest. All told, the risks of damaging Fed independence are akin to damaging Brand USA and the medium-term implications are likely to be wide-ranging and uncertain…not to mention the consequences of allowing inflation to spiral out of control. Inflation credibility has been hard won by central banks across the developed world, most notably in the 1970s. In their most recent fight, the majority have been unable to bring inflation back to target reflecting wide ranging changes in the global economy…most importantly the introduction of pro-cyclical fiscal policy (despite large deficits) and a partial unwind of globalisation. This does not seem like an opportune time to lose control of this mandate. But, what if The Fed is already un-independent? No lesser authority than Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has just this day unleashed his sword pen in a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, "The Fed’s ‘Gain of Function’ Monetary Policy", pointing out that the central bank put its own independence at risk by straying from its narrow statutory mandate. In the lengthy op-ed, Bessent critiques the Fed’s post-2008 monetary policies, comparing them to a risky "gain-of-function" experiment with unpredictable outcomes. He argues that The Fed’s over-use of complex, nonstandard tools, mission creep, and regulatory overreach have undermined its independence, credibility, and effectiveness. The most notable aspects of The Fed's failures include: Failed Forecasts: The Fed’s over-reliance on flawed models led to significant errors, like overestimating GDP growth post-2008, missing the impact of supply-side policies, and fostering inequality through a wealth effect that favored asset owners. Economic Inequality: Policies like quantitative easing disproportionately benefited large firms and homeowners, widening class and generational gaps, as noted in Karen Petrou’s book: "Engine of Inequality". Eroded Independence: The Fed’s expanded role in fiscal-like interventions, Treasury debt management, and bank regulation (e.g., post-Dodd-Frank) has blurred lines between monetary and fiscal policy, creating conflicts of interest and enabling fiscal irresponsibility. Regulatory Failures: The 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse highlights the risks of combining monetary policy with bank supervision, which should be delegated to agencies like the FDIC. Bessent concludes by stating that The Fed’s overreach has caused economic distortions, inequality, and a loss of credibility, threatening its independence. It must scale back and recommit to its core mandate to ensure economic stability and public confidence. Bessent's suggestion is that The Fed should simplify its toolkit, use unconventional policies only in emergencies, and undergo an independent review to refocus on its mandate of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate interest rates. This is critical to restore public trust and safeguard its independence. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 15:25
New York AG Asks Appeals Court To Reinstate Trump's $500 Million Civil Fraud Penalty Authored by Matthew Vadum and Sam Dorman via The Epoch Times, New York Attorney General Letitia James filed an appeal on Sept. 4 of a court ruling that threw out an estimated $500 million penalty in President Donald Trump’s business fraud case. James’s office filed a notice of appeal with the New York Supreme Court in Manhattan, indicating an appeal was being launched with the state’s highest court, the Court of Appeals of the State of New York, on behalf of the state. The brief notice does not spell out arguments from James as to why the appeal should be allowed. The filing came after a ruling on Aug. 21 by the New York Appellate Division’s First Judicial Department, a branch of the New York Supreme Court, tossed the penalty in a fractured ruling but left the civil judgment against Trump undisturbed. The case concerned allegations that the Trump Organization was involved in financial fraud by misrepresenting property values. The trial judge, New York Supreme Court Justice Arthur Engoron, ruled against Trump in February 2024, issuing a judgment of more than $460 million, with interest accruing. Trump posted a bond of $175 million, and the appeals process moved forward in the New York Appellate Division’s First Judicial Department. The Appellate Division affirmed the judgment issued by Engoron, but the panel of five judges was divided, filing three separate opinions, including partial dissents. Two of the jurists—Justices Peter Moulton and Dianne Renwick—said they thought James “acted well within her lawful power in bringing this action, and that she vindicated a public interest in doing so.” However, both disagreed with the high-dollar penalty. Moulton said in a concurring opinion that the lower court’s penalty order “is an excessive fine that violates the Eighth Amendment of the United States Constitution.” Justices John Higgitt and Llinet Rosado joined an opinion saying Engoron’s judgment should be vacated and a new trial ordered. Justice David Friedman criticized James, saying she was focused on “political hygiene, ending with the derailment of President Trump’s political career and the destruction of his real estate business.” He said that the court’s ruling “unanimously derails the effort to destroy his business.” Trump hailed the Appellate Division ruling in an Aug. 21 post on Truth Social, saying he achieved “total victory” and that he was “so honored by Justice David Friedman’s great words of wisdom.” James lauded the Appellate Division ruling when it came out. “The First Department today affirmed the well-supported finding of the trial court: Donald Trump, his company, and two of his children are liable for fraud,” she said on X. “The court upheld the injunctive relief we won, limiting Donald Trump and The Trump Organization officers’ ability to do business in New York.” It is unclear when the Court of Appeals of the State of New York will act on the appeal. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 15:05
Trump Deploys F-35s To Puerto Rico Airfield After Pair Of Venezuelan Jets Buzz US Warship The Pentagon has warned Venezuela after two of its miliary aircraft buzzed a United States Navy ship in international waters, as an apparent show of force after a US naval build-up in the region. The pair of warplanes, identified in various media as F-16 jets, flew over over the guided-missile destroyer Jason Dunham in the southern Caribbean Sea on Thursday, and while the US ship did not engage the aircraft, a subsequent Department of Defense statement called it "highly provocative" and "an attempt to interfere with our counter-narco-terror operations." US Navy file image "Today, two Maduro regime military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters," the Pentagon said in a post on X. "The cartel running Venezuela is strongly advised not to pursue any further effort to obstruct, deter or interfere with counter-narcotics and counter-terror operations carried out by the US military," the Pentagon said. This was clearly President Maduro's response to Tuesday's US strike on an alleged drug trafficking speedboat in the same waters and general posture of saber-rattling. President Trump says the blown-up boat belonged to a criminal organization tied to Maduro, and the rare military action resulted in the deaths of eleven people. However, some international monitors have noted that if those slain were civilians, this amounts to an extra-judicial killing, also given there was no apparent attempt to intercept the vessel or arrest those aboard. This is likely what's behind the sudden frequent use of the term 'narco-terrorists' by the US administration. The sudden terror pretext and label makes it easier to justify direct military action in front of the American people, who have become generally wary of the potential for new, unnecessary wars and foreign adventurism abroad - even if in Latin America. Maduro has ordered a heightened defense posture due to the US sending some eight naval ships, with Venezuela’s Noticias Venevision news outlet quoting him as saying it is the "first time in history that the communal units of the militia will be activated, spanning the national map from north to south, from east to west, down to the last community." Are they gonna use this as a pretext to bomb Venezuela? https://t.co/xFWtcOIzBz September 5, 2025 But the White House is answering further by deploying even more assets near Venezuela in the dangerous environment of rising tit-for-tat tensions. President Trump has newly ordered ten F-35 fighter jets to be deployed to Puerto Rico, the American territory and Caribbean archipelago, in what's becoming (or rather, being sold to the public) an all-out Pentagon war on drug cartels. Reports say the advanced aircraft will be in position by week's end. They will join the at least eight warships and one nuclear-powered fast attack submarine to the eastern Caribbean, which are also there. Just ahead of this new jet deployment, Trump warned after hitting the drug boat, "Please let this serve as notice to anybody even thinking about bringing drugs into the United States of America." What's really going on here? One trend being reflected, as we've long previewed, is that President Trump's worldview is for greater coordination of national and hemispheric defense across the Americas, hence the push for stronger economic integration between the United States and Canada, coupled with a hardened defense perimeter stretching from the Arctic to the Panama Canal. Monroe Doctrine on steroids? But this surge in major defense assets off Venezuela's coast could also more likely be about renewing regime change efforts targeting Caracas, after some apparent failed externally-backed coup efforts which happened during Trump's first term. After all, the 'war on drugs' is a losing proposition in the historic US policy playbook (and ironically the CIA was a hidden hand which helped fuel drugs on American streets), given it had been on for past many decades, and deploying warships and stealth jets is hardly the right tool set for something the DEA and Coast Guard have conventionally done. They are lying about Venezuela because they want regime change and to strip the country's natural resources. It's really not that complicated. They lie. About everything. https://t.co/iU4jSLRhuR September 4, 2025 There's also the question of to what degree one takes seriously the US administration's claims concerning Maduro and his socialist country's role in shipping dangerous substances into the United States. Why not a force concentration against the Mexican drug cartels instead - or at least in parallel? Of course, Mexico is not home to the world's largest known reserves of oil, as Venezuela is, and consideration of what's really going on can't happen without that key fact front and center. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 14:45
Justin Sun Urges Trump-Linked WLFI To Unlock 'Unreasonably' Frozen Tokens Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com, Tron founder Justin Sun is urging World Liberty Financial (WLFI), a crypto project linked to the Trump family, to unfreeze his token allocation. His wallets were blacklisted after suspicious transactions flagged by blockchain trackers sparked accusations of selling. Sun’s World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token address was blacklisted on Thursday, after blockchain data from Nansen and Arkham flagged the address for a $9 million transfer, Cointelegraph reported. In a Friday response to the blacklisting, Sun said his pre-sale tokens were “unreasonably frozen,” urging the team behind World Liberty Financial to unlock his investment, in respect to the principles of decentralized blockchain technology. World Liberty’s decision to block his tokens is a violation of investor rights and risks “damaging broader confidence in World Liberty Financial,” wrote Sun in a X post, adding: “I call on the team to respect these principles, unlock my tokens, and let’s move forward together toward the success of World Liberty Financials.” “Tokens are sacred and inviolable—this should be the most basic value of any blockchain. It’s also what makes us stronger and more fair than traditional finance,” added Sun. Source: Justin Sun Sun was among the first investors to join the Trump family-linked WLFI pre-sale, and said that he was looking to hold the tokens long-term. Sun “stated he will not be selling soon (his words) and is creating yield on HTX for WLFI deposits — plus minting $200M USD1 on Tron to power the ecosystem,” wrote the WLFI platform in a Tuesday X post, referencing Sun’s earlier statement. Source: WLFI “Justin and the WLFI team are in active communication about this matter,” a spokesperson for Justin Sun previously told Cointelegraph. Justin Sun moved $9 million of WLFI to HTX: Bubblemaps The blacklisting occurred shortly after Sun had started moving WLFI tokens to the HTX cryptocurrency exchange. “Justin Sun moved $9M of his still-unlocked $WLFI to HTX. In total, he sent $10M to CEXs over the past 3 days,” wrote Bubblemaps in a Friday X post. Source: Bubblemaps Other crypto analysts have also suggested that Sun was selling his allocation, despite earlier promises. “If Justin Sun really lured in WLFI tokens from HTX users with a 20% APY to lock them, and then sell them to get out of ‘his’ own position while they’re still unvested, then he deserves to get his account frozen,” wrote Quinten François, cryptocurrency analyst and the co-founder of social decentralized application weRate, in a Friday X post. Others, including Nansen crypto intelligence platform founder Alex Svanevik, contend that Sun has not been selling his allocation. Source: Alex Svanevik “At first, it (an AI agent) thought @justinsuntron caused the dump. Then I asked it to scrutinize the timestamps. Conclusion seems to be: he did not,” wrote Svanevik in a Friday X post, referencing his conversation with the Nansen AI agent. Still other industry analysts allege that Sun circumvented HTX to end up selling via the Binance exchange instead. “A Binance deposit wallet connected to Justin Sun received over 60 million WLFI tokens worth $12M yesterday from HTX,” according to Conor Grogan, head of product at Coinbase exchange. “The 60M WLFI deposit represents about 52.6% of HTX’s total WLFI holdings at present from what I can find onchain based on HTX’s public wallets,” Grogan said in a Thursday X post. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 14:25
Kenvue Craters On Report RFK Jr To Link Autism To Tylenol Use In Pregnancy The stock of Tylenol maker Kenvue is crashing after a WSJ report according to which Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plans to announce that pregnant women’s use of an over-the-counter pain medication is potentially linked to autism in a report that will also suggest a medicine derived from folate can be used to treat symptoms of the developmental disorder in some people. The report, sourced to "people familiar" and expected this month from the Department of Health and Human Services, is likely to highlight low levels of folate, an important vitamin, and Tylenol - which has been mass produced since 1955 - taken during pregnancy as well as other potential causes of autism. Kennedy’s department also plans to pinpoint a form of folate known as folinic acid, or leucovorin, the people said, as a way to decrease the symptoms of autism, which affected roughly one in 31 eight-year-olds in the U.S. in 2022. Tylenol, whose active ingredient is acetaminophen, and has been used for decades, is a widely used pain reliever, including by pregnant women. While a handful of previous studies indicated risks to fetal development, others have found no association. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists says it is safe to use in pregnancy, though it recommends pregnant women consult with their doctors before using it, as with all medicines. Tylenol is made by McNeil Consumer Healthcare, a division of Kenvue, and other companies make similar acetaminophen-based products. “Nothing is more important to us than the health and safety of the people who use our products,” a Kenvue spokeswoman told the WSJ. “We have continuously evaluated the science and continue to believe there is no causal link between acetaminophen use during pregnancy and autism.” Of course in a market where nobody is surprised when crazy things come out of left field late on Friday, the stock of KVUE plunged, losing 12% of its value because RFK Jr., long leeches, short tylenol pair trade was taking on water in recent decades. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 14:15
One Of Russia's Largest Oil Refineries Once Again On Fire After Ukraine Drone Strike Ukrainian drones have yet again targeted one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight - this time a Rosneft facility in the Ryazan region, which lies southeast of Moscow. Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov in confirming the strike on what he called an "industrial enterprise" described that eight drones were shot down in the area, but which resulted in no injuries or damage to residential buildings. The attack unleashed two active fires at the Ryazan refinery, with witnesses hearing explosions around 2 am local time, after which large flames and thick smoke were spotted above the southern outskirts of the city. Over 90 drones in total were launched across various parts of Russia overnight. Cross-border drone attacks have been a regular feature of the war, coming nightly, and Russia has just as frequently responded with its own major missile and UAV attacks. One Ukrainian military blogger has claimed that due to Ukraine's sustained attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure, "Gasoline (in Russia) is becoming scarce, while gas and oil are quickly running out." Strikes from this summer have reportedly disrupted some 20% of Russia’s refining capacity, or roughly 1.1 million barrels per day. Ukraine's military and media have classified Russia's refineries as essentially military targets, given they prop up funding of the armed forces as they execute Putin's 'special military operation' in Ukraine: According to Ukraine's General Staff, the ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil processing unit, with an estimated annual capacity of 6 million tons, was hit. The plant, which has a capacity of 13.8 million tons per year, was previously struck by Ukrainian drones on Aug. 2, forcing two of its three main refining units to halt operations. Ukraine's military said the facility plays a role in supporting Russia's armed forces. Just the past month has seen at least a dozen similar attacks on Russian crude refineries and distribution sites - revealing a concerted effort to permanently damage the Kremlin's ability to fund the war. Newsmax writes that "The impact has been felt nationwide. Motorists face fuel shortages, long lines, and record prices." The report adds, "Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 54% since January, prompting authorities to suspend exports and impose rationing in some regions." Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 14:05
Is Lisa Cooked? By Molly Schwartz, cross-asset macro strategist at Rabobank Yesterday, the Department of Justice opened an investigation into Fed Governor Lisa Cook, probing allegations of mortgage fraud. This comes after a series of tweets from Bill Pulte, Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, with supposed evidence supporting claims that she was not living at her home in Ann Arbor, MI. Questions, however, still remain as to if she is even guilty, given that she has not yet been convicted (though the DOJ probe might change that) and whether this is even fair grounds to fire her from her position on the Board of Governors in the first place. Cook’s legal team maintains that she “never committed mortgage fraud,” asserting that discrepancies in her mortgage paperwork were already flagged and addressed during her 2022 confirmation process. Indeed, her legal team has filed a lawsuit against Trump over his attempts to remove her. The rest of the Governing Board, including Chair Powell, were also named in the suit, though they are “being sued only to the extent that they are able to effectuate President Trump’s purported termination of Governor Cook.” Whether Cook is guilty or not, there are clear political incentives for Trump to fire her. As it stands, Trump has two Governors, Waller and Bowman, ready and willing to vouch for cuts if it means it will get them on the short list for Fed Chair. Meanwhile, Stephen Miran is on deck to replace Kugler, who stepped down shortly after the July FOMC decision. With Cook still employed, Trump sympathizers are capped at a 3-4 minority. If Trump can stack the Fed with another pick of his own to replace Cook and pull in a sympathetic outsider to act as Fed Chair when Powell steps down, Trump would achieve a 5-2 majority on the Board in 2026. But before Miran can step into Kugler’s shoes, he must be confirmed by the Senate. Yesterday, Miran testified before the Senate Banking Committee, making his case for confirmation. According to Senator Moreno, Miran is already ahead, having confirmed that Miran has “never lied on a mortgage application.” Miran made sure to emphasize his commitment to Fed independence in his prepared statement. However, Senator Warren challenged this, asking Miran several pointed questions, including whether Trump lost the 2020 election. Miran avoided a direct answer, stating only that Congress confirmed Biden’s victory. Other questions included if he believed the Bureau of Labor Statistics falsified data ahead of the 2024 election (in an attempt to sway public sentiment in favor of Harris) and if he thought tariffs had caused tangible price increases. Warren criticized Miran’s responses, saying he had “blown it” and made his loyalty to Trump clear. Another point of contention among Democratic senators was Miran’s dual role as Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) and his nomination to the Fed. Miran stated he would take an unpaid leave of absence for the remainder of Kugler’s term – about four and a half months – as advised by counsel, but that he would resign from the CEA if granted a longer term. Still, senators expressed concern that even on leave, Miran remains functionally employed by the Trump Administration and therefore may be influenced to make decisions that serve political interests rather than economic ones. Another major proponent of “imposing bans on the revolving door between the executive branch and the Fed” is none other than Stephen Miran himself, as explained in a co-authored paper published in March of 2024. In the article, Miran (and Katz) take aim at Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, indirectly referring to him as a “Biden campaign surrogate.” While complimenting Goolsbee’s talents as an economist, Miran and Katz went so far as to argue that “to pretend that one can easily shift between highly political and allegedly nonpolitical roles without letting political biases inform policy is, at best, naïve – and, at worst, sinister.” While perhaps a tad melodramatic, it’s an unfortunate position for Miran to be in the hot seat and have his own words spun back at him by Elizabeth Warren. But question remains if Miran is the exception to his own rule. Across the Atlantic, European leaders gathered at the Coalition of the Willing Summit – seated on bouclé chairs – to discuss the future of Ukrainian security. According to Macron, 26 countries agreed to support Ukraine, including sending troops if necessary. Zelenskiy tweeted after the event, speaking of a “long and detailed conversation” with Trump and thanked him for his support, though he did not elaborate on what exactly that support entailed and what commitments the US would make towards Ukrainian security going forward. He did, however, hint at the continued use of US sanctions and tariffs, citing “strong economic measures to force an end to the war.” Zelenskiy also praised the NATO’s Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) initiative, agreed upon in July of this year, which helps to supply Ukraine with American weapons. In an absence of data yesterday on the Eastern Hemisphere, we once again turn our focus back to the United States. Yesterday morning, ADP employment data registered only 54k payrolls added to the economy, down from 104k the month prior, for the fifth sub-100k print year-to-date. This was followed by similarly weak data in ISM services employment at 46.5, fueling the ever-increasing likelihood of a Fed cut at the September meeting. Surprisingly enough, despite slipping yields, USD was still the strongest performing G10 currency. We also saw economic activity data from south of the U.S. border, suggesting continued economic lethargy in Mexico as gross fixed investment contracted at a rate of 6.4% year-over-year and 1.4% month-over-month in June. Meanwhile, the Canadian trade balance, which registered its deepest deficit in April, has shown some improvement in July, with the deficit creeping back up to “only” -$C 4.94 billion, which is at least better than the April 2020 deficit. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 13:45
Six Flags Faces Bankruptcy Fears After $500M Debt And Park Closures We're not sure what more of a comment about discretionary spending one would need... Six Flags, less than a year removed from its merger with Cedar Fair, is drowning in debt, closing parks, and facing warnings of bankruptcy, according to The Sun. The company has racked up $500 million in debt, seen revenue fall by $100 million in Q2, attendance drop 9%, and season pass sales decline 8%. Two parks have already been shut down, with California’s Great America set to close in 2027. “The whole company needs to be reimagined,” said Dennis Speigel of International Theme Park Services, who warned “bankruptcy is not out of the question.” Citi analyst James Hardiman agreed, saying “everything should be on the table as we think about asset sales,” though flagship parks like Cedar Point are expected to survive. The July 2024 merger was billed as a growth engine, with executives projecting 6% attendance gains in 2025. Instead, attendance fell 9%. “It’s about the biggest miss I’ve ever seen in the theme park industry versus expectations,” Hardiman said. The Sun writes that leadership turmoil has added to the crisis. CEO Richard Zimmerman announced he will step down at year’s end, a move Hardiman called “odd,” especially mid-season. Chairman Selim Bassoul remains in charge. Six Flags blames poor weather for disrupting nearly 50 operating days, but critics say demand for multi-park passes was overstated. Controversial new fees for haunted houses at Halloween events have further angered passholders. Stock prices have plunged to $23.84, less than half their pre-merger value. Two law firms are already exploring potential securities-fraud lawsuits. “If I were running the company, there are 10 to 12 parks I would keep, pay off debt and start over,” said Speigel. “I wouldn’t be surprised if you see the company on the precipice of bankruptcy to get that debt off the books.” Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 13:25
Why Keynes' Economic Theories Failed In Reality Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, A recent post from Daniel Lacalle, “How Keynesians Got The US Economy Wrong Again,” exposed the widening gap between John Maynard Keynes’ economic theory and reality. Despite the confident forecasts of leading Keynesian economists, the U.S. economy in 2025 continues to defy expectations. The Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle failed to trigger the widely predicted “hard landing,” and growth has proven more resilient. Simultaneously, inflation remains somewhat sticky, but still declining, and the economy refuses to follow the neat, linear pathways that textbook models suggest. This latest embarrassment for Keynes’ orthodoxy is part of a much larger story. The failures aren’t isolated miscalculations but the predictable result of a flawed framework that policymakers have clung to for decades. Keynesian economics didn’t just “get it wrong” in 2025, but has repeatedly failed to deliver on its promises for over forty years. And the consequences are becoming impossible to ignore. At its core, Keynesian economics is deceptively simple. When demand for the private sector falls, the government should borrow and spend to fill the gap. The idea is that temporary fiscal stimulus injections will smooth business cycles, reduce unemployment, and quickly return the economy to full capacity. But the key word here is temporary. John Maynard Keynes was clear: governments should run deficits during downturns and surpluses during expansions. The debt incurred to rescue the economy should be repaid once conditions normalize. However, in practice, this discipline never materialized. Politicians discovered that voters liked stimulus but hated austerity. Since the 1970s, deficits have become a permanent feature of U.S. fiscal policy, regardless of the business cycle. The results are sobering: the U.S. national debt now exceeds 120% of GDP, entitlement programs are structurally underfunded, and each crisis requires larger interventions with diminishing economic benefits. The COVID-19 pandemic was the ultimate Keynes experiment. Between 2020 and 2022, the federal government injected over $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus into the economy, complemented by the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates to zero and expanding its balance sheet by $120 billion each month. According to the Keynesian model, this unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus should have ushered in a durable economic boom. The Failure of Artificial Growth However, as we noted in “MMT Was Tried And Failed,” the massive flood of stimulus temporarily boosted economic growth by “pulling forward” future demand, but it also created several problems. “The most obvious problem was the impact of dramatically increasing demand on a supply-stricken economy. With the economy “shut down” due to Government-mandated restrictions, the flood of stimulus payments led to a demand boost. Given the basic economics of supply versus demand, prices rose. As expected would be the case, the implementation led to a massive surge in inflation. (Given most Americans’ have fixed healthcare and housing payments for a contractual period, the third measure shows what cost-of-living is for most every month.)” Crucially, inflation, excluding housing and healthcare, surged to nearly 12% during the pandemic-stimulus-infused spending spree. However, today, as the economy slows and the stimulus fades from the system, that inflation rate has declined to just 1.61%. Secondly, the “economic boom” created by the demand-pull stimulus continues to disappear as the economy normalizes slowly back to roughly $3.50 in debt to make $1 of economic activity. Following the pandemic shutdown, the economy surged to unprecedented levels, nearing 17.5% nominal growth. On a shuttered economy, the byproduct of all that demand was an inflation surge to 40-year highs, peaking above 9% in 2022. Five years later, inflation continues to decline towards the Fed’s 2% target, but remains sticky as remnants of monetary and fiscal stimulus continue to flow through the system. The Broken Transmission of Monetary Policy A further failure of modern Keynesian policy is its overreliance on central banks. Through rate cuts and quantitative easing (QE), monetary stimulus has become the go-to solution for any economic slowdown. Yet the transmission mechanism between monetary policy and real economic activity has fundamentally broken. Artificial interventions and “MMT” failed to work in reality because the underlying transmission system failed. “The promise of something for nothing will never lose its luster. So MMT should be viewed as a form of political propaganda rather than any real economic or public policy. And like all propaganda, we must fight it with appeals to reality. MMT, where deficits don’t matter, is an unreal place.” Meanwhile, the velocity of money, the rate at which money changes hands in the economy, while recovering somewhat from the economic shutdown, continues to trend lower. In other words, the Fed can inject liquidity but fails to circulate productively. The velocity trend does not provide an encouraging outlook for GDP growth. Given the weakening economic growth rates and subsequently declining inflation, a direct reflection of weakening consumer demand, banks have little incentive to expand lending at current rates, especially in an environment of tighter regulations and poor credit quality. One key problem is that Keynesian models assume a linear cause-and-effect relationship between government spending and economic output. They focus almost entirely on aggregate demand, neglecting critical dynamics like debt saturation, supply chain fragilities, and the feedback loops of global capital markets. In today’s highly financialized economy, government spending does not circulate efficiently. As noted, much of it gets trapped in financial markets, inflating asset prices rather than stimulating productive investment. Ultra-low interest rates, another hallmark of Keynesian policy, discourage savings and encourage debt-fueled speculation. This distorts capital allocation, causing malinvestment in unproductive assets like meme stocks, speculative real estate, and unprofitable tech ventures. Most benefits remain trapped in the top 10% of the economy, which owns roughly 88% of the inflation-adjusted financial assets. In other words, the wealthy retain the monetary injections while inflation taxes them away from the poor. Mr. Lacallie highlighted this mismatch between Keynes’ theories and economic realities. As he noted, many mainstream economists repeatedly forecasted a 2023-2024 recession that never arrived, underestimated inflation persistence, and misread the impact of fiscal tightening. These forecasting errors expose deeper flaws in how Keynesians model the modern economy. Hayek’s Warnings Prove Prophetic The Austrian school of economics, particularly Friedrich Hayek’s views, starkly contrasts with Keynesian thinking. Austrian economists believe that a sustained period of low interest rates and excessive credit creation creates a dangerous imbalance between saving and investment. In other words, low interest rates tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking system, which leads, as one would expect, to the expansion of credit. This expansion of credit, then, in turn, increases the supply of money. Therefore, as one would ultimately expect, the credit-sourced boom becomes unsustainable as artificially stimulated borrowing seeks out diminishing investment opportunities. Finally, the credit-sourced boom results in widespread malinvestments. When the exponential credit creation is no longer be sustainable, a “credit contraction” occurs, ultimately shrinking the money supply. The markets eventually “clear,” which causes resources to be reallocated towards more efficient uses. Modern policymakers refuse to allow this natural process. Each downturn results in more aggressive stimulus, which only delays the necessary corrections. The result has been a relentless build-up of economic imbalances. Inefficient businesses survive on cheap debt, zombie firms proliferate, and innovation suffers. Each economic expansion is weaker than the last, and each recovery depends on larger interventions to stay afloat. Perhaps the greatest misconception perpetuated by Keynesian economists is that debt-financed stimulus is a free lunch. In reality, servicing the debt and rising debt service costs become a significant economic headwind. The Congressional Budget Office projects that U.S. interest payments will exceed national defense spending in the coming years and approach $1.5 trillion annually by 2030. Of course, that is assuming that rates stay where they are currently. The next crisis, which has become more common since the turn of the century, will significantly lower rates. As shown, a reduction in rates by 1% would dramatically impact future liabilities. This is not just a fiscal issue—it’s a macroeconomic drag. Spending dollars on interest payments diverts them from infrastructure, education, or productive investment. Worse, rising debt levels crowd out private investment, distort capital markets, and reduce the flexibility to respond to future crises. Conclusion: Keynes’ Economic Theory Has Failed For the last 40 years, each Administration and the Federal Reserve have continued to operate under Keynes’s monetary and fiscal policies, believing the model worked. The reality, however, is that most of the economy’s aggregate growth is financed by deficit spending, credit expansion, and a reduction in savings. This reduced productive investment and slowed the economy’s output. As the economy slowed and wages fell, the consumer took on more leverage, decreasing savings. The result of the increased leverage required more income to service the debt, rather than fuel increased consumption. Secondly, most government spending programs redistribute income from workers to the unemployed. Keynes’ economists argue that this increases the welfare of many hurt by the recession. What their models ignore, however, is the reduced productivity that follows a shift of resources toward redistribution and away from productive investment. All of these issues have weighed on the overall prosperity of the economy. What is most telling is the inability of current economists, who maintain our monetary and fiscal policies, to realize the problem of trying to “cure a debt problem with more debt.” This is why Keynes’ economic policies have failed, from “cash for clunkers” to “Quantitative easing.” Each intervention either dragged future consumption forward or stimulated asset markets. Pulling future consumption forward leaves a “void” in the future that must be continually filled. However, creating an artificial wealth effect decreases savings, which could be used for productive investment. It’s time we wake up and realize we are on the same path. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 13:05
EU Slaps Google With Massive €2.95 Billion Antitrust Fine The European Commission has slapped Google with a €2.95 billion fine for abusing its dominance in the search advertising market through "self-preferencing" practices, according to a new Financial Times report. The EU ordered Google to end these behaviors within two months or risk a potential breakup. This marks one of the largest EU fines against a company, following the €4.12 billion Android fine in 2018. EU competition chief Teresa Ribera warned Google to draw up a "serious remedy to address its conflicts of interest, and if it fails to do so, we will not hesitate to impose strong remedies." Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google's global head of regulatory affairs, called the fine "unjustified" and said "it requires changes that will hurt thousands of European businesses by making it harder for them to make money." The commission's investigation began around 2021, with formal charges issued in 2023. Brussels warned back then that the only solution for Google might be breaking up its ad-tech business. Not since US v Microsoft, filed in 1998, has Silicon Valley been so threatened. Meanwhile, in the US, Google earlier this week avoided a breakup order after a judge ruled against forcing divestitures of Chrome or Android. Instead, Google must share more data and stop exclusive distribution deals. "Plaintiffs Over-Reached": Alphabet Shares Soar After Judge Rules In Antitrust Case https://t.co/wpHPO05oKA September 2, 2025 Even as Brussels and Washington ramp up antitrust actions against the tech giant, its New York-listed shares have gone parabolic this year. . . . Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 12:45
Biden-Appointed Judge Blocks Trump's Transgender Passport Order Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), A federal appeals court on Sept. 4 upheld a lower court ruling that blocked enforcement of President Donald Trump’s executive order banning the use of gender-neutral markers on passports. U.S. passports are arranged for a photograph in Tigard, Ore., on Dec. 11, 2021. Jenny Kane/AP Photo U.S. District Judge Julia Kobick issued an injunction in April blocking the Department of State from enforcing the passport policy against six plaintiffs who filed the case, later expanding it in June to grant class certification, covering other Americans identifying as nonbinary or transgender. In the Sept. 4 ruling, the court’s three-panel judge stated that the government failed to meaningfully address the district court’s finding that the changes to passport policy were rooted in “unconstitutional animus toward transgender Americans.” The judges noted that the federal government did not meet its burden to secure a stay, despite its argument that blocking the policy could harm “certain long-term institutional interests of the executive branch.” “In contrast, based on the named plaintiffs’ affidavits and the expert declarations submitted by the plaintiffs, the district court made factual findings that the plaintiffs will suffer a variety of immediate and irreparable harms from the present enforcement of the challenged policy, including ‘a greater risk of experiencing harassment and violence’ while traveling abroad,” the judges stated. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Massachusetts, which represented the plaintiffs, said the ruling ensures that “transgender, non-binary, and intersex people will continue to be able to obtain accurate passports.” The White House did not respond to a request for comment by publication time. The United States had permitted individuals who identify as transgender and intersex to choose a different sex for their passport than their birth sex since 1992, pending submission of medical documentation, until the rules were changed in 2021 under President Joe Biden. The Biden administration allowed people to self-select their passport sex marker based on gender identity. Individuals who identified as non-binary or intersex were allowed to select an “X” marker rather than “M” or “F.” After taking office on Jan. 20, Trump signed an executive order titled “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,” mandating that government-issued identification documents, including passports, use sex rather than gender identity. “It is the policy of the United States to recognize two sexes, male and female. These sexes are not changeable and are grounded in fundamental and incontrovertible reality,” the order stated. ACLU filed the lawsuit in February on behalf of the plaintiffs challenging Trump’s order. Kobick ruled in their favor in April, noting that the administration failed to demonstrate substantial government interests in changing the passport policy. Joseph Lord contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 12:20
Schiff: Trump's Wrong; "We Screw Over The World" On Trade Donald Trump’s tariffs split opinion—champions said they were leverage to rebuild U.S. industry, while critics argued they were hidden taxes that raised costs and invited retaliation. At last night’s ZH Debate, Cornell chemistry professor Dave Collum — fresh off his Tucker Carlson controversy — moderated as Peter Schiff and Brent Johnson squared off on trade, tariffs, and the future of the dollar. Brent is no fan of tariffs but thinks there is some wisdom to Trump’s long-term plan and that the U.S. dollar still reigns supreme. Peter… well all ZH readers know where Peter stands. Below were the key moments for those short on time: Trump Has Trade Deficits Wrong Peter Schiff argued that America’s trade deficits are misunderstood. “It’s actually the other way around,” he said, pushing back on Donald Trump’s claim that the U.S. is being taken advantage of. “We take advantage of the world. They give us goods produced at significant cost in resources, land, labor, capital… and all we do is run off dollars on a printing press, cost us nothing, and we give it to them.” Brent Johnson responded that this imbalance is exactly what comes with America’s position. “That’s the privilege of being the hegemon as you get global.” Schiff countered that such privilege is temporary. “It’s the privilege that we are about to lose. That’s what $3,500 gold tells you. Dollar is on the way out as the reserve currency.” pic.twitter.com/mgb8ovZcPy September 5, 2025 “I expect Powell to lose” Brent went on record with a bold call that included something rarely seen in market commentary: timing. He predicts — as soon as October — a 10 or 20% market downturn… perhaps welcomed by the Trump admin so they can blame the Fed and lower rates. “To get the cover to do that, they need some pain. I don’t think they can do that right now with things the way they already are.” “Some kind of a crisis that they blame on the Fed, and then they go back to even easier monetary policy than maybe they had last time. And that is what then gives the fuel to go much higher.” With markets at record highs and inflation still sticky, “it’s really hard to do it now.” Brent’s prediction: “I think Powell is pushing back a little bit. But this is the thing—I expect Powell to lose. I think Trump and Bessent are going to get control.” pic.twitter.com/glftJKmeJ6 September 5, 2025 Watch the full debate below or listen on Spotify for more fun moments like this one… Schiff on the world’s attitude towards the U.S. dollar once rates drop: “Shove it up your ass.” pic.twitter.com/WUfI9OLwqc September 5, 2025 Full Debate (X, YT, and Spotify): https://t.co/dhOGAvwTtX September 4, 2025 Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 12:05
ActBlue Lawyers Subpoenaed As House GOP Investigation Into Donor Fraud Intensifies Via American Greatness, Three top lawyers for the Democratic fundraising organization ActBlue have been subpoenaed by members of the House Administration, Judiciary and Oversight committees who are probing the group’s ties to alleged fraudulent donations. The individuals who have been summoned to be deposed by House investigators include former ActBlue general counsel Darrin Hurwitz and ex-director and associate general counsel Aaron Ting as well as another anonymous ActBlue lawyer. They have been asked to appear for depositions on Oct. 15, 21 and 28. 🚨 Our investigation into ActBlue continues. Today, Chairmen @RepBryanSteil, @Jim_Jordan, and @RepJamesComer issued subpoenas to one current and two former ActBlue employees to appear for depositions. Read more from @nypost ⬇️https://t.co/nVvNydQREg September 4, 2025 The New York Post reports that records previously uncovered by the House committees show that Hurwitz, Ting and the unidentified counsel worked with the platform’s fraud prevention team to relax the organization’s donation standards during the 2024 election cycle. ActBlue is accused of allowing debit and credit transactions to be processed without requiring a card verification value (CVV) until January 2024 and then further instructed employees to “look for reasons to accept contributions.” In April and September of 2024, guidelines were further relaxed allowing between 14 and 28 fraudulent contributions each month. A report released in March from House Oversight and Administration Committee staff, showed that ActBlue had 1900 fraudulent transactions between February 2022 and November 2024. The letter released Thursday by the House committees, says, “Other internal ActBlue documents show that top fraud-prevention staff assessed that there were several mechanisms by which bad actors could evade ActBlue’s fraud-prevention systems and make illicit donations.” In that letter, Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil (R-WI), Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-KY) affirmed that, “Congress has a specific interest in ensuring that bad actors, including foreign actors, cannot make fraudulent or illegal political donations through online fundraising platforms. Our oversight to date indicates that current law may be insufficient to stop these illicit donations.” The organization was also found to have fraudulently used the names and personal confidential information of American citizens, without their knowledge or permission, to launder money through the ActBlue platform. An overnight investigation has found even more disturbing evidence of donation fraud in my name... ActBlue FEC campaign reports claim I donated multiple $2 amounts to Democratic candidates in Kansas. I have never stepped foot in Kansas. I have never donated to any candidate. pic.twitter.com/JPYA9ZTp3m March 20, 2025 Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 11:40
Lululemon Plunges On Weak Guidance As Sexy Leggings Demand Slumps Lululemon shares in New York crashed on Friday after the upscale athletic apparel retailer slashed its full-year earnings guidance, citing the Trump administration's move to end the de minimis exemption loophole. "This is a disappointing update from LULU, and we expect shares to underperform peers tomorrow as a result," Goldman analyst Brooke Roach wrote in a first take note to clients after the earnings release on Thursday. Across the board, Lululemon cut its FY25 outlook, lowering revenue expectations in the US, Canada, and China as demand for its overpriced sports bras, workout tops, and leggings weakens. Roach provided more color on the outlook downgrade: The company lowered its FY25 outlook across all key line items. For FY25, LULU's lowered its revenue growth expectations for the US, Canada and China as consumer demand for the brand continues to soften, and margin pressures have increased as a result of (1) Incremental tariff rate increases (~50bps net headwind vs. 40bps prior); (2) Changes in the de minimis exemption (~170bps net headwind); (3) Elevated promotionality (~50bps headwind vs. 10-20bps prior); and (4) Incremental SG&A deleverage due to FX and ongoing investments in Power of 3x2 initiatives (~80-90bps deleverage vs. ~50bps prior). Management noted they expect a ~$320mn EBIT headwind from tariffs (incl. de minimis pressures) as they look out to FY26. As a result, Lululemon shares plunged in New York, down about 16% by 10:00 a.m. EST. Year-to-date, the stock is off 55%, hitting lows not seen since early 2020. Roach is "Neutral" on the stock. He explained (Pro Subs read here) that he lowered his 12-month price target to $200 from the previously stated $232. Other Wall Street analysts noted weakness in its US business. Stifel downgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Buy." According to Bloomberg data, 28.9% of Wall Street analysts rate the stock a "Buy," 57.9% a "Hold," and 13.2% a "Sell." More commentary (courtesy of Bloomberg): Stifel's Peter McGoldrick (cut to hold from buy, PT to $205 from $324) The meaning FY25 guidance cut was due to challenges from domestic market pressures and removal of the de minimis exemption While the acknowledgment of underperformance within the casual side of the business is a starting point, "reigniting brand momentum in the US is likely to take longer than we had previously anticipated" Bloomberg Intelligence's Poonam Goyal "Lululemon is facing increased pain from tariffs and slowing sales, notably in the Americas" Along with guidance for a $240 million annual hit to gross profit from tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption, the company cut its earnings guide JPMorgan's Matthew Boss (neutral, PT to $191 from $224) The company's 2Q same-store-sales was weighed down by weak Americas comps, "which sequentially worsened over the course of the quarter despite taking higher than planned markdowns" "Merchandise mix reset required into spring 2026" Jefferies' Randal Konik (underperform; PT $150) Says the US business is declining, adding that the third- quarter earnings appear to be a "little better," but the topline miss is the major issue due to competition and will continue to worsen given the below Street outlook "We believe guidance cuts continue and will become more severe through the end of the fiscal year" EMARKETER's Suzy Davidkhanian Lululemon's second-quarter results were mixed as revenue grew 7% to $2.5 billion, but missed guidance, while adjusted EPS beat expectations "Once the trailblazer in athleisure, Lululemon has lost its innovation edge, now squeezed by luxury newcomers like Alo Yoga and private-label dupes with comparable fabric tech at lower prices" "Looking ahead, holiday gifting may provide a short-term lift, but sustainable growth hinges on whether Lululemon can move credibly into new sport verticals and find the right formula for its footwear" Queue the Sweeney ad... And... it's up 50% https://t.co/BjlDaAs5fu pic.twitter.com/MMkzdTcNxV September 4, 2025 . . . Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 11:20
California Passes Bill To Require Schools To Notify Parents Of ICE Operations Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), An emergency bill to require California schools to notify parents and school staff when federal immigration officers are operating in the area passed the state Legislature on Sept. 2. A Homeland Security officer speaks to classmates and relatives gathered outside immigration court in Chelmsford, Mass., on June 5, 2025. Brian Snyder/Reuters Senate Bill 98—dubbed the Sending Alerts to Families in Education, or SAFE Act—is now waiting to be signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom. “With students returning to school, this legislation is more important than ever,” the bill’s author, state Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez, a Democrat from Pasadena, said in a statement. “The SAFE Act will inform and protect immigrant students and their families on school campuses.” If signed into law, the measure will require all elementary, secondary, charter schools, and college campuses to make the notifications. The schools would need to update their safety plans to include procedures for the notifications and provide additional resources for families about their educational rights, state privacy laws, and counseling or support services. The notification would also be required to include the date, time, and location of the immigration enforcement. The legislation includes an urgency clause, which means it would take effect immediately after Newsom signs it, instead of the typical date of Jan. 1, 2026. California schools serve an estimated 133,000 children ages 3 to 17 who are illegal immigrants, according to the Migration Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based global immigration policies think tank. More than 2.7 million people in California are illegal immigrants, and over 400,000 have moved to the state within the last five years, the institute reported. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border on his first day in office Jan. 20, making immigration enforcement a top priority. Since then, federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations have included checking the welfare of immigrant children who crossed the border illegally and without a parent in the past four years. In April, two elementary schools in Los Angeles denied entry to Department of Homeland Security investigators checking on the health and safety of such children. “DHS is leading efforts to conduct welfare checks on these children to ensure that they are safe and not being exploited, abused, and sex trafficked,” a department spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email at the time. In the face of ongoing federal immigration operations, Pérez said the SAFE Act can help “inform and empower school communities to make the best decisions about their safety and their family’s safety.” “I urge [Newsom] to sign the SAFE Act,” Pérez continued. “Students and their families have been living in fear. California must ensure our schools and colleges remain places where students can learn, teachers can teach, and classrooms can be safe places for young Californians.” Flanked by images of a person arrested for violence during the ICE protests in Los Angeles, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt speaks about President Donald Trump's response to the protests at the White House on June 11, 2025. Bryan Dozier/Middle East Images via AFP via Getty Images The legislation was a priority of the California Latino Legislative Caucus and was sponsored by the state’s Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, the University of California Student Association, California State Student Association, Student Senate for California Community Colleges, California Faculty Association, and others. “Our immigrant families are living in fear and our time to act is limited,” Thurmond said in a statement. “The school year has begun, and now is the time to make decisive efforts to protect our communities and maintain school as a safe place for learning.” Aaron Villarreal, chair of the Cal State Student Association, said he has witnessed classmates and colleagues struggle with fear of immigration enforcement. “This anxiety is not unique to Sacramento State but is shared across all 22 campuses,” Villarreal said. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 11:00
UK Deputy PM Resigns After Home Purchase Tax 'Error' While Fed Governor Lisa Cook attempts to litigate her way out of an alleged mortgage fraud (for which the Trump administration has delivered the receipts), The U.K.’s deputy prime minister, Angela Rayner, resigned this morning following an 'ethical' error on her home purchase tax payments. Rayner, who admitted on Wednesday that she did not pay enough tax on her purchase of an apartment in Hove, on England’s south coast, earlier this summer, said the report found that she acted in good faith, but that, crucially, she should have sought more specific tax advice. “I take full responsibility for this error," she said in her resignation letter to Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Of course, this is very different from Lisa Cook's playing of the race-card, not addressing the actual crime she is accused of, and distracting from her actual fraud by claiming it's a witch hunt. As AP reports, in the U.K., levies are charged on property purchases, with higher charges due on more expensive homes and secondary residences. Reports have suggested that Rayner saved 40,000 pounds by not paying the appropriate levy, known as a stamp duty, on her 800,000-pound ($1 million) purchase. Rayner, 45, had sought to explain that her “complex living arrangements” related to her divorce in 2023 and the fact that her son has “lifelong disabilities” underlay her failure to pay the appropriate tax. In response, Starmer voiced his sadness but said Rayner had made the right decision. “I have nothing but admiration for you and huge respect for your achievements in politics,” Starmer wrote. The handwritten letter signed off “with very best wishes and with real sadness.” But, as Stephen Bush writes at The Financial Times, Angela Rayner’s resignation leaves Sir Keir Starmer’s government weaker and his own position more uncertain, even as the full extent of the damage is still unclear. Those around Starmer knew full well that if they could keep Rayner, they were better off doing so, because of the chaos and uncertainty that a fresh election for deputy leader creates within the Labour party. This is why the loudest defenders of the now ex-deputy prime minister were not her core allies but those of Starmer — Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, whose political career lives or dies with his, and Peter Kyle, the ultraloyal secretary of state for science and technology. As far as the government as a whole is concerned, today’s events force Starmer’s hand in conducting a ministerial reshuffle, at a time when he did not want one. Given that Downing Street’s own weakness makes a wider reshuffle too risky, he may be saddled with a less far-reaching set of changes than he might have been able to make in the new year. ... Everything from the government’s position on the UK’s relationship with the EU to wealth taxes to trans rights to its handling of Donald Trump could now come under fire from rival deputy leadership candidates. For Rayner, her housing arrangements have already extracted their price. The costs to Starmer are only just beginning. Rayner's previous comments had opened her up to charges of hypocrisy, particularly from current Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who said Rayner's position had been “untenable for days.” “The truth is simple, she dodged tax," she said in a video posted on social media. “She lied about it.” Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 10:40
More Than 40% Of Americans Expect To Work Until They Die: Survey Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), A significant share of Americans believe they may never retire, with 43 percent admitting they see themselves working until death, financial services company WalletHub said in a Sept. 2 survey. “50 percent of people don’t think it’s realistic for the average American to expect to retire comfortably,” WalletHub said. “These concerns aren’t unfounded, given the heavy debt burden many households carry, the lack of adequate savings, and the uncertainty surrounding the future of government benefits.” For instance, the average American household held $152,653 in debt by the end of the second quarter of 2025, WalletHub said last month, based on data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate has been hovering below the 5 percent level since 2022, a stark contrast to pre-2022, when the rate remained mostly above this level, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis data. In the WalletHub survey, two out of five respondents said they felt anxious when thinking about retirement. One in four said they don’t have a retirement plan. A quarter of respondents said they are counting on family members to support them financially once they retire. “Most Americans (53 percent) think paying off debt is more important than making retirement contributions,” WalletHub said. The survey was conducted online among 200 respondents nationwide. A May 1 report from investment company State Street had also made similar findings—that Americans were worried about preparing for retirement. However, respondents in the survey expressed higher confidence regarding retirement, it said. “Americans’ overall confidence in their ability to retire at some point improved by eight percentage points, from 54 percent to 62 percent, with certain demographic groups showing particular optimism,” said the report. “Young people were more likely to plan to fully retire, with 75 percent of those respondents between the ages of 18 and 34 expecting they will do so completely—perhaps not surprising, given the longer runway ahead and a less clear picture of what will be required to make it to retirement.” Best Places to Retire A key factor for a good retirement is where people choose to spend their life after retiring. Locations that are affordable and have a good quality of life and health care would be optimal for this stage. A Sept. 2 WalletHub report compared the retirement friendliness of more than 180 American cities in 45 metrics such as cost of living and health infrastructure. Orlando, Florida, topped the list as the best city for retirees, followed by Scottsdale, Arizona, and Minneapolis, Minnesota. Miami and Tampa took the remaining two of the top five spots. “It’s important to choose wisely when picking where to retire, as many retirees are on a fixed income,” said WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo. “As a result, the best cities for retired people are those that minimize taxes and expenses, as well as have good opportunities for retirees to continue paid work for extra income, if they choose to do so. “In addition, the top cities provide high-quality health care and offer plenty of enjoyable activities for retirees.” According to a June 18 post by the Investment Company Institute, total U.S. retirement assets amounted to $43.4 trillion as of March 31, accounting for 34 percent of household financial assets. Assets in individual retirement accounts made up $16.8 trillion out of the $43.4 trillion. Defined contribution plan assets accounted for $12.2 trillion. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is taking action to protect the retirement benefits of millions of Social Security beneficiaries. During Aug. 25 remarks to reporters at the Oval Office, President Donald Trump emphasized that he would not touch Social Security when it comes to congressional cost-cutting proposals. “One thing I said and I gave my word—we’re not going to hurt anybody on Medicaid, Medicare, or Social Security,” he said. “We’re doing great on Social Security,” and “we’re going to protect it.” According to Social Security Administration data, there were 69.9 million Social Security beneficiaries as of July, out of which 53.17 million were retired workers. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 10:25
Let's Get Ready To Rumble: UFC Cage Match Planned At White House Ultimate Fighting Championship CEO Dana White emerged from a White House meeting on Thursday, declaring to his nearly 11 million Instagram followers: We had the meeting at the White House. It could not have gone better. This is going to be awesome. The White House fight is on. I'll have more details on that in the next couple of weeks, but we got it done today. What White was referring to is UFC's Octagon fight, which is coming to the White House's South Lawn next year. In fact, the event is scheduled for June 2026, just before America's 250th birthday celebration on July 4. Here are more details from The Wall Street Journal: The initial idea called for the event—a full card featuring men and women—to be held July 4, 2026, as a capstone to America's 250th birthday celebration. But with so many events already planned, the date shifted to sometime in June, people involved in the planning said. UFC plans to have a large presence in Washington ahead of the event, with several days of fan festivities on the National Mall, which are to include autograph sessions with UFC stars and punching bags for tourists to test their skills. Trump spokesman Steven Cheung told the outlet: This will be one of the greatest and most historic sports events in history, and President Trump hosting it at the White House is a testament to his vision to celebrate America's monumental 250th anniversary. UFC at the White House represents a new era in America - one that celebrates the youth of "strong men" - in sharp contrast to the Biden-Harris regime years, when all things woke projected from the White House lawn, including transgenders flaunting their fake body parts... ... which ushered in a period of toxic wokeism and the dark age of weak men. History reminds us: strong men build nations, weak men destroy them. And America's young men crave strength and health - not the Democratic Party's hollow, rainbow-colored messaging of weakness. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 10:05
Sharia Law? US Police Dept Introduces Arabic Patch Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, A police department in Michigan has introduced a uniform patch that has Arabic writing on it, prompting fierce backlash. Dearborn Heights Police Department is believed to be the first in the country to have a patch with a language other than English. Reports indicate that the patch was designed by an Officer Ermily Murdoc, who claims to have created it to “reflect and honor the diversity of our community – especially the many residents of Arabic descent who call Dearborn Heights home.” NEW: Dearborn Heights Police Department in Michigan becomes the first in the country to offer a police patch in Arabic. The patch was designed by Officer Ermily Murdoc, who created it to "reflect and honor the diversity of our community." "The Dearborn Heights Police Department… pic.twitter.com/YmDAEGyroR September 4, 2025 The patch includes the Michigan seal in the center with the words ‘Dearborn Heights Police’ written in both English and Arabic. It was introduced under the authority of recently appointed Police Chief Ahmed Haidar. The Dearborn Heights Police Department in Michigan, under the authority of Police Chief Ahmed Haidar, created an official police department patch for officers to wear with Arabic writing on it. Ahmed Haidar took over the police department a few months in replacement of Chief… pic.twitter.com/3rxQhzqzz8 September 4, 2025 “The Dearborn Heights Police Department is proud to share a new optional patch that our officers may wear as part of their uniform,” a Facebook statement announced. “By incorporating Arabic script alongside English, this patch represents unity, respect, and our shared commitment to service,” it adds. “Our officers proudly serve all members of our community, and this new design is another way we continue to celebrate the rich cultures that make our city unique,” the statement further asserts. The department quickly disabled comments on the Facebook post due to an influx of negative feedback, including accusations of promoting “Sharia law” or enabling a “cultural takeover.” Dearborn Heights has a combined Middle Eastern and North African population of around 40 percent, while nearby Dearborn has a majority 55 percent. Both areas, along with other towns such as Hamtramck, have attracted Arab communities with immigration from Lebanon, Yemen, and other Middle Eastern countries. Islamization of Michigan! Just days ago, thousands of Shia Muslims marched down the streets of Dearborn, Michigan, in the Tenth Annual Ashura Procession. This controversial event took place in Muslim Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib's district, and as you will notice, there… pic.twitter.com/Gwxj9zUUfR July 17, 2024 This is Dearborn, Michigan. It’s known for being the first Muslim-majority city in the US. What many don’t know is that before Muslims moved there, it was a majority Middle Eastern Christian town, mostly populated by Lebanese Christians and Assyrians fleeing persecution. The… pic.twitter.com/WK8VSVvwDx April 15, 2025 The city of Dearborn in Michigan is home to the largest Muslim population in the United States per capita as well as the largest mosque in North America. Large anti-Israel protests have been taking place there over the past 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/WqxgGgQp3X January 7, 2024 While there are Arabic speaking Orthodox Christians in Dearborn from earlier immigration movements in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, they have become proportionally smaller due to immigration trends favoring Muslim-majority groups, which now define much of the city’s Arab identity. Did you know that before becoming America’s jihad capital, Dearborn, Michigan, was a thriving center of Middle Eastern Christian culture? Not a lot of people know, but Dearborn was initially settled in the early 20th century by Lebanese Christians and Assyrians/Chaldeans fleeing… pic.twitter.com/quIAQ2933K February 5, 2024 This has sparked controversies, such as over public broadcasts of the Islamic call to prayer. Many Americans are… not best pleased with this latest development, to say the least. This is how it starts. Dearborn Heights Police Dept. now has the nation's first-ever uniform patch in Arabic. The civilization takeover has begun. pic.twitter.com/9s7Dnpc7Nz September 4, 2025 That’s more than an inch. That was a leap. September 4, 2025 It's not September 5, 2025 Islam requires Muslims to hide all crimes by Muslim brethren. How on Earth can Western policing and Islam be together? The Baal Demon Cult is in charge. September 4, 2025 Wonder how the Dearborn heights non Muslim police officers feel about this. I wonder how many Muslims are on the Dearborn heights police force? September 4, 2025 Sharia law has arrived. September 4, 2025 It is political ideology cloaked in religion designed to conquer and maintain dominion over conquered lands. September 5, 2025 This is how Islam conquers… small incremental steps, slowly, then before you even know it, the most popular baby name is Muhammad and you've been conquered. September 4, 2025 Unacceptable. Everyone has to Assimilate to the USA not the USA to the third world. September 4, 2025 * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 09:50
Rate-Cut Odds Surge After Soft Labor Market Signals; Here's What Wall Street Thinks... Rate-cut expectations surged this morning following the weak labor market signals from the payrolls report with 2025 now pricing in 3 full cuts... Source: Bloomberg As we predicted, the chance of a 50bps cut in September are also rising, but for now it appears 25bps in each of Sept, Oct, and Dec is the most likely outcome... Source: Bloomberg As The Wall Street Journal's fed Whisperer, Nick Timiraos, pointed out in a brief post on X: "Weak hiring this summer will make it easier for Fed policymakers to agree on a 25 bps cut at their meeting in two weeks but further muddies the debate over the pace of cuts after that." Consensus across Wall Street appears to be that Powell will cut in September, and continue to cut at each meeting this year at least: Gregory Faranello, head of US rates trading and strategy for AmeriVet Securities: “The job market has weakened and the transition between public to private sector job growth will require lower rates. The Fed will begin to lower rates this month and we expect a string of more cuts along the way. The forward curve has us down to neutral by the end of 2026 but that timeline could very well be sooner.” BI chief US interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey has a first take: “The bull steepening is no surprise given the overall payroll report. Negative revisions continue and hourly earnings growing more slowly point to the potential for a slowing in non-debt-fueled consumption growth in the next few quarters.” “Bull steepening should be maintained for the present, and we still target 10-year yields below 4% by year end, with 10-year yields having about a 0.5 beta to 2-year yields.” Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak: “[Bad news is good news for stocks] is the initial response. However, history tells us that if lower yields are signaling a significant slowdown in growth, it’s negative for stocks. So, we’re going to see how the market acts once the cash market opens.” Audrey Childe-Freeman, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist: “Dollar bears have just been given another lift, with the August employment report which will not only validate the September 25-bp Fed rate-cut talks, but is also likely to entertain speculation of more aggressive Fed easing going forward.” “This confirms our US yield-driven euro-dollar bullish case as we consider 4Q, with a break of $1.1750 now looming. Note that the euro context isn’t rosy at all — see French politics in particular — but for now, we expect this pair to be mainly driven by US considerations.” A jumbo rate cut? Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, goes there in his reaction to the data. "A 50 basis-point cut is back on the table. Everyone was probably more keyed-in on the revisions than the headline number. With revisions, there was nearly net zero job creation. Aggregate weekly hours were unchanged in August with broad declines across industries. Anything trade or tariff related saw declines in aggregate weekly hours worked. The diffusion index for private sector employment has been below 50, so it’s a top-heavy economy. You need some better breadth to remove the economic anxiety out there." BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg on the payrolls print on Bloomberg TV: “What it really puts on the table is a Fed that gets back in motion for cutting rates, and if the economy is not falling off a cliff, that’s a pretty good combination for risk assets.” Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro says the numbers are a comprehensive defeat of the policy hawks and growth bulls. “To borrow from Powell, now is the time to unleash the great monetary power of the United States.” Seema Shah, chief global strategist, Principal Asset Management: “Today’s report just about strikes a balance between reinforcing market expectations for a sequence of Fed rate cuts and not yet inviting renewed concerns around recession, so the broad market response should be mildly positive. But concerns about the health of the economy are starting to creep in and a further deterioration in the health of the labor market would soon tip the balance to ‘bad news is simply bad news.’” Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree says, “The markets are leading the Fed and the jobs report was the last data point needed for a quarter point cut this month. A half point is not out of the question, but at this stage of the game I would still lean to a quarter-point cut, now if we had seen a negative payroll, then a 50bps cut would be on the table.” Ali Jaffery‘s take at CIBC Capital Markets: While the macro case for easing policy isn’t so clear cut, with the economy looking fairly resilient in the face of a major trade war and an immigration crackdown, the politics of monetary policy are getting complicated and it’s likely not worth defending keeping rates on hold. Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research LLC, gave ger first thoughts on the report on Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance: “First take is another weak summer employment report. Immigration seems to be having another impact on the data. When you look at the household survey, the foreign-born population was again, sort of the weaker part of it.” “On Sept. 9, once we get the annual preliminary benchmark revisions, that’s going to be revised down to the tune of something like 600,000 — that’s going to be another really bad negative headline. Then beyond that, we think that the signs will look a little bit better. Finally, the factory sector is clearly showing pain and reflects ongoing uncertainty linked to the new tariffs and the need for lower borrowing costs, Alliance for American Manufacturing President Scott Paul says in a release: “The August jobs report should hopefully spur on two important actions. First, a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Second, concluding tariff actions and trade deals to provide businesses with the certainty they need to hire, invest in new capital equipment, and realign supply chains. Manufacturing will be treading water until we see those changes.” For now, stocks are higher, Treasury yields are significantly lower (and bull steepening), gold hit a new record high, and bitcoin is surging . Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 09:33
NATO Troops In Ukraine 'Legitimate Targets' Even If There For Peace Deal: Putin French president Emmanuel Macron had on Thursday hosted a 'coalition of the willing' on Ukraine in Paris, involving 26 nations which have declared readiness to get directly engaged in providing security guarantees for a post-war order. The plan will reportedly be finalized with US approval, as American forces are sought to 'backstop' the plan, including possibly by air. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has reiterated in Friday comments that any Western troops in Ukraine would become legitimate targets, even in the scenario of enforcing a peace deal. Via Reuters Speaking before the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, Putin described that "The West’s dragging of Ukraine into NATO was one of the causes of the conflict. If any troops show up now, while the hostilities are ongoing, we would consider them legitimate military targets," according to state media translation. "If decisions are made that result in long-term peace, then I simply see no sense in such a presence," he clarified further. "Nobody should doubt that Russia would implement the agreed terms fully. We will respect security guarantees that both Russia and Ukraine need to be offered." Putin additionally complained that despite all of these Western meetings and talk of security guarantees, none of these things have been directly discussed with Moscow - which remains an essential if there's hope of ending the war. The Kremlin's position is certainly nothing new, and so it seems as usual that the two sides are talking past each other. Some analysts read it as the more hawkish Europeans putting up yet more obstacles to peace. One such example is featured in The Guardian as follows: Finland’s president Alexander Stubb said president Donald Trump in a call with European leaders on Thursday suggested the US and Europe should act together on further sanctions against Russia, and that sanctions on oil and gas were up for discussion. “Trump’s approach was very much that we must act together on sanctions policy and now look for ways in particular to halt Russia’s war machine by economic means,” Stubb told Finnish media after the meeting, Reuters reported. “In that case there are two targets, namely oil and gas. The President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and President Trump’s close advisers will discuss this over the next 24 hours,” Stubb said. All of this underscores the need of the Europeans and Washington to get on the same page if they hope to enact any of this, or also achieve ceasefire and deescalate the proxy war nature of the conflict. "Without the participation of the USA, all the talk of the ‘coalition of the willing’ will remain words on paper," a Russian analyst, Sergey Poletaev, editor of the Vatfor project, has stated. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 09:20
Crude Prices Tumble To 3-Mo-Lows As Saudis Push To Accelerate OPEC+ Production Boost Oil pries are tumbling further this morning following reports that OPEC+ leader Saudi Arabia wants the group to consider reviving more oil production ahead of its scheduled return at the end of next year to reclaim market share. Bloomberg reports that, according to people familiar with the matter, key alliance members will hold a video conference on Sunday that will consider what to do with a 1.66 million barrels a day tranche of halted supplies, having just fast-tracked the return of a previous layer over the past five months. “Our latest soundings from the group suggest they are very much considering unwinding that final tranche” of halted supply “sooner rather than later,” Livia Gallarati, global crude lead at Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg television interview. WTI tumbled back to a $61 handle - at three month lows - after the headlines... While extra supply would be a boon for consumers and a win for Trump, it’s a financial threat for producers from the US shale industry to OPEC+ members themselves. The move would underscore a clear pivot by OPEC+ toward defending market share and not prices. Delegates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have said the Saudis are eager to claw back sales volumes ceded to rivals like US shale drillers. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit Washington in November to meet President Donald Trump, who has called for lower fuel prices. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 09:03
Vance Blasts Democrat Senators: "You're Full Of Sh*t" Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Vice President JD Vance tore into Senate Democrats after they acted like a group of school children playing courtroom during RFK Jr’s testimony today. The Senators lined up to take pot shots at Kennedy, who remarkably held his own, in what was clearly an attempt to sour the American people on the HHS Secretary. The Democrats’ efforts appear to have spectacularly backfired. “When I see all these senators trying to lecture and ‘gotcha’ Bobby Kennedy today,” Vance wrote in an X Post, “all I can think is: You all support off-label, untested, and irreversible hormonal ‘therapies’ for children.” Vance added that the Dems stand up for “mutilating our kids and enriching big pharma.” “You’re full of shit and everyone knows it,” he further asserted. When I see all these senators trying to lecture and "gotcha" Bobby Kennedy today all I can think is: You all support off-label, untested, and irreversible hormonal "therapies" for children, mutilating our kids and enriching big pharma. You're full of shit and everyone knows it. September 4, 2025 Oof. The Senators also look very stupid. Totally uninformed. All they had are bullet points from their Big Pharma handlers. Secretary Kennedy took them into deep waters, and they all drowned! September 4, 2025 Today revealed that Democrats have nothing other than delusional opposition to Trump. If the American people were to watch the hearing from today in full, not a single Democrat Senator would win another election. They behaved like grade school children. September 4, 2025 Follow the money.. They sold their souls to BigPharma to enrich themselves at the expense of the population Totally corrupted politicians pic.twitter.com/pxBeTP5XVR September 4, 2025 “We all support off-label, untested, and irreversible hormonal therapies for children, mutilating your kids and enriching big pharma. But you! You Bobby Kennedy! You’re the biggest threat to American children!” pic.twitter.com/oArVPTmF2i September 4, 2025 Senators grilling RFK while backing child mutilation drugs is peak hypocrisy. They push IRREVERSIBLE pharma experiments on kids, then dare to preach about HEALTH and SCIENCE like frauds. September 4, 2025 Here are some of the exchanges Kennedy had with the Dems, expertly fending off their attacks. RFK Vs Wyden: 🚨 BOOM!!!!! WYDEN: Former CDC Dir. Susan Monarez said you told her, 'Just go along with vaccine recommendations even if they don't match with science.' You calling her a LIAR? RFK: I did not say that to her. WYDEN: She's lying? RFK: Yes. 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/HduxcSzULq September 4, 2025 🚨 OMG, RFK JR. isn't taking any SHT from Senator Wyden, HOLY SMOKES! WYDEN: I don't get any letters from THOUSANDS of people who aren't political saying this set of changes will damage healthcare! I don't get any! RFK: Maybe you're listening to a selective group of people.… pic.twitter.com/oWLJ23zskG September 4, 2025 🚨 HOLY CRAP! RFK Jr. just absolutely EVISCERATED Democrat Senator Ron Wyden "Senator, you've sat in that chair for how long? 20, 25 years? While the chronic disease in our children went up to 76%. And you said NOTHING. You never ASKED the question why it's happening!" 🔥 pic.twitter.com/kFDt8ErDS6 September 4, 2025 🚨BOOM — @SecKennedy 's OWNS Sen. Wyden: "You have sat in that chair for…25 yrs? While the chronic disease for our children went UP to 76%, you said NOTHING…For the first time in 20 yrs, infant mortality has INCREASED…it's not because I came in…We're going to END it" pic.twitter.com/Ie3vs7m8du September 4, 2025 Brutal. RFK Vs Bennet: 🚨 HOLY SH*T! A SHOUTING MATCH erupts, RFK Jr. holds nothing back. "Are you saying, senator, that the mRNA vaccine has NEVER been associated with myocarditis or pericarditis in teens? Is THAT what you're trying to tell us?!" "You're EVADING THE QUESTION! I asked YOU a… pic.twitter.com/e5VQYLsk95 September 4, 2025 🚨 BREAKING: Senator Michael Bennet is trying to TRAMPLE the credibility of Dr. Robert Malone and it is backfiring massively! BENNET: Malone said common mRNA vaccine can cause a form of AIDS and damaged children's brains, heart and immune system KENNEDY: Dr. Malone is an… pic.twitter.com/Wbj9tGKT21 September 4, 2025 Sit down bitch. RFK Vs Warren: 🚨 BREAKING: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. just EXPOSED Elizabeth Warren! Holy crap! "I know you've taken $855K from PHARMA COMPANIES, SENATOR!" "I'm not gonna recommend a product for which there is no clinical data for that indication! [COVID vax for healthy people]" GO OFF, BOBBY… pic.twitter.com/TOcAa7LgmB September 4, 2025 She has such an excretory voice. RFK Vs Sanders: 🚨 JUST IN: RFK Jr. has Bernie Sanders YELLING during the hearing after he called out Elizabeth Warren for taking Phrma dollars – he struck a NERVE. RFK: Are you saying the Pharma industry supported my presidential campaign?! I don't think so! SANDERS: To suggest every… pic.twitter.com/KfChpbnRzd September 4, 2025 Why is Sanders screaming? RFK Vs Lujan: 🚨 HOLY SHT! Bobby Kennedy is losing his patience with these Pharma-bought buffoons! – "You're not understanding how the WORLD WORKS!" SEN. LUJAN (D): Will you commit to sharing protocols used for the autism study with Congress? RFK: They're PUBLIC… LUJAN: Will you commit to… pic.twitter.com/IL0zANmYxC September 4, 2025 Lol. RFK Vs Smith: 🚨 JUST IN: Old liberal woman Senator Tina Smith lectures Robert F. Kennedy Jr. she wants HIM to listen to HER, NOT answer a question. SMITH: More denial, more back-and-forth. Here's what I know. RFK: Want me to explain? Or you just wanna… SMITH: No. Actually, I want you to… pic.twitter.com/ipzwBOOcq2 September 4, 2025 🚨 HOLY CRAP! RFK is not taking any sh*t from Sen. Tina Smith! SMITH: You went on Fox and blamed school sh*otings on antidepressants. But you have no evidence. RFK: You're making stuff up. You're TWISTING. Yeah you are. You're being DISHONEST right now! SMITH: You want to talk… pic.twitter.com/yZbF8PGJk4 September 4, 2025 He knew exactly what they were up to. RFK Vs Warnock: 🚨 HOLY MIC DROP! SEN. WARNOCK (D): You have an agenda. It is a threat to the public health of the America people. RFK JR: Senator, we’re the sickest people in the world! We’re the sickest people on earth – how am I A THREAT? pic.twitter.com/1MzDja4lBy September 4, 2025 Sometimes the simplest answer is the most effective. RFK Vs Hassan: 🚨 FASCINATING that these senators don't have a CLUE what they are talking about. HASSAN: Scientists wanted to brief you and understand why you unilaterally changed the parameters for giving vaccines, making it possible to make them go off-label! RFK JR: This is CRAZY TALK, you… pic.twitter.com/b94LS9p42R September 4, 2025 They don’t even know what they’re talking about. RFK Vs Warner: 🚨 HOLY CRAP! RFK Jr. is PUMMELING Senator Mark Warner after he ridiculously questioned, "You're saying the Biden admin politicized the [COVID] data?!" RFK JR: "…YEAH! They fired ALL of the people who questioned the orthodoxy!"pic.twitter.com/hOFIrT93OF September 4, 2025 Owned. RFK Vs Cassidy: 🚨 WTF? Republican Senator Bill Cassidy is ATTACKING Robert F. Kennedy Jr now, PITTING HIM against President Trump! Are you kidding me? CASSIDY: You said the COVID vax k*lled more people than COVID. RFK: Wait…I did NOT say that. CASSIDY: We'll check the record. […] Also,… pic.twitter.com/n7lF7Eaanq September 4, 2025 That about sums it up. Responding to the line of questioning about COVID vaccines, Kennedy stated “There were more reports to VAERS of injuries and deaths from that COVID vaccine than all vaccines put together in history! We have to acknowledge that there was a cause, we acknowledge that there was a benefit – we can’t quantify either one because of the data chaos at CDC!” “And they think I’m being ‘evasive’ because I won’t make a kind of a statement that’s almost RELIGIOUS in nature?! Did it save a million lives? Well, there’s no data to support that. There may be data. There’s no study. There’s faulty data,” Kennedy added. He concluded, “I’m not going to sign on to something if I can’t make it to a scientific certainty! It doesn’t mean that I’m anti-vax – it just means I’m PRO-SCIENCE.” 🚨 BREAKING: Secretary RFK Jr. just laid out his entire philosophy on the COVID vaccine and it perfectly shows why Big Pharma is petrified of him. "There were more reports to VAERS of injuries and deaths from that COVID vaccine than all vaccines put together in history! We have… pic.twitter.com/EzUve3wvGa September 4, 2025 Kennedy has come out of this looking like an absolute boss. * * * Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 08:55
US Job Growth Collapses To Just 22K, Unemployment Rate Rises To 4.3% Putting 50bps Rate Cut In Play Ahead of today's jobs report, consensus was that a print between 40K and 100K is largely priced in and greenlighting a 25bps rate cut by the Fed in two weeks, and that we would need a real outlier number for the Fed to either cut 50bps... or not hike. Well, we got a real outlier when moments ago the BLS reported that in August the US added only 22K jobs, a big drop from the upward revised 79K (from 73K previously) but more importantly June was revised from 27K to -13K, ushering in the first negative jobs print since 2020. With these revisions, employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported, continuing to trend of negative revisions into a labor market slowdown. The revisions pushed the 3-month average jobs print to just 29K, which however was a tiny improvement from the 28K in July. Just as importantly, the payrolls number came in far below Wall Street estimates of a 75K print. In fact, it was higher than just one of the 80 estimates provided to Bloomberg. The household survey was not quite so bad, and in fact the number of employed workers rose by 288K to 163.394MM, the biggest increase since April. The number of unemployed workers also increased, rising from 7.236MM to 7.384MM, and with the labor force increasing to 170.778MM, it meant the unemployment rate also rose to 4.3% from 4.2%, in line with expectations. Among major groups, the unemployment rates for blacks rose to 7.5%, the highest since 2021; All other unemployment rates also rose modestly: Whites (3.7 percent), Asians (3.6 percent), and Hispanics (5.3 percent). Developing. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 08:42
Futures Rise Further Into Record Territory Ahead Of Jobs Report US equity futures are higher into NFP, rising after strong results from Broadmcom and on optimism that Friday’s jobs report will set the stage for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates this month. At 8:00am, futures for the S&P 500 ticked 0.1% higher - reaching a new record high - but eased off the best levels of the session. Nasdaq contracts advanced 0.5%. In premarket trading, Broadcom rallied more than 9% following its pact with OpenAI to create an artificial-intelligence chip. Tesla rose 2% after the board proposed a potentially $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk. US Treasuries were little changed, with the two-year yield near the lowest in almost a year. The dollar headed for its weakest showing this week. Commodities are mixed: oil and base metals are lower, while gold and ags are mostly higher. In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed (Tesla +2%, Meta Platforms +0.3%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.1%, Amazon -0.3%, Alphabet -0.1%, Nvidia -0.8%) as Broadcom (AVGO) soars 11% after the chipmaker is said to be helping OpenAI design and produce an artificial intelligence accelerator from 2026. It also said that its artificial intelligence outlook will improve “significantly” in fiscal 2026. Crypto-linked stocks rose with Bitcoin and Ether prices up as broader markets gain on hopes that US jobs data on Friday will increase the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this month. Coinbase (COIN) +1.2%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +1.8%, Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) +2.7% BioNTech ADRs (BNTX) gains 10% after the drugmaker said a late-stage trial of an experimental therapy for breast cancer met its primary endpoint. Braze (BRZE) climbs 18% as the cloud software company beat its second-quarter revenue and third-quarter revenue forecast estimates. An analyst at Needham notes that AI is seen to be a growth driver. . DocuSign (DOCU) rises 6.6% after the e-signature company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast. Guidewire (GWRE) is up 14% after forecasting revenue for the first quarter above the average analyst estimate. Lululemon (LULU) falls 18% after slashing its outlook, disappointing investors for a third straight quarter as the company struggles to meet high expectations and balance tariff expenses in a difficult consumer environment. Samsara (IOT) is up 12% as the US hardware-software platform company boosted its adjusted earnings guidance for the full year. Investors are riding high ahead of today’s nonfarm payrolls report, with hopes it will strike the balance of a softer labor market that clears the way for policy easing without undercutting confidence in the economy. A bigger surprise in either direction could unsettle markets. August payrolls are projected to rise by roughly 75,000, extending a four-month streak of job growth below 100,000. The unemployment rate is seen climbing to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 (our full preview is here). JPMorgan Market Intel estimates a better than 90% chance that the S&P 500 will advance following the payrolls report. Although the data is unlikely to sway the September decision, a weaker-than-expected print could amplify calls for a 50 basis-point cut, the team led by Andrew Tyler noted earlier this week. While softer numbers may briefly stoke recession fears, the bank notes that the real risk lies in a substantially stronger-than-expected report. “Today’s release is unlikely to show the kind of pronounced weakness that would force the Fed to accelerate its easing plans,” wrote Max McKechnie, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “Instead, investors should focus on the unemployment rate and wage growth for a clearer sense of the Fed’s next steps.” The run-up to today’s payrolls report has brought a raft of data signaling a slowdown in the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautiously opened the door to a first rate cut for 2025 in his Jackson Hole speech, citing risks to the jobs backdrop even as inflation concerns persist. Some investors are approaching the release cautiously after recent revisions showed significantly weaker growth than previously reported. The downward adjustments, published with the July report, also led US President Donald Trump to dismiss the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the integrity of data going forward. Stretched valuations also argue for restraint. “We’re at a pivotal moment not only on growth and the labor market but also on inflation,” said Patrick Brenner, chief investment officer of multi-asset at Schroders Plc. “The market is priced for perfection and so we’re taking a wait-and-see approach by taking profits on our equity position.” European stocks rise for a third straight session as investors await key US payrolls data later in the day. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% to 551.97 with the FTSE 100 outperforming European peers. The CAC 40 lagged, flat on the day. Miners, industrials and tech led sector moves. Dutch chip equipment maker ASML gains after an upgrade at UBS. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday: ASML shares rise as much as 2.9% after UBS upgraded the firm to buy from neutral, noting that the factors that have seen the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker underperform over the past year are now priced in. Hexagon gains as much as 7.7% after the Swedish industrial design and measurement firm announced it would sell its design and engineering (D&E) unit to Cadence Design Systems for €2.7 billion ($3.2 billion). Berkeley Group rises as much as 2.5% as the housebuilder reassures that trading has been stable over the first four months of the year. Peers Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Bellway, Vistry, Barratt Redrow and Crest Nicholson also rise. Sixt gains as much as 6.9% after being initiated with a buy recommendation at UBS, with the bank saying the market underestimates tailwinds from better fleet management as well as US market-share gains. Ashmore shares fall as much as 15% after full-year results from the UK asset manager missed analyst estimates. Temenos shares drop as much as 14% after the Swiss banking software provider dismissed CEO Jean-Pierre Brulard, naming CFO Takis Spiliopoulos as his successor and interim CEO. Orsted falls as much as 2.2% after the wind farm developer cut its Ebitda excluding items forecast for the full year. BioArctic shares drop as much as 13% after Nordea analysts cut their recommendation on the Swedish biopharma company to sell from hold, setting their price target at a Street-low. Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track for a weekly advance, supported by a rebound in Chinese equities as well as bullish sentiment around a US-Japan trade deal. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.2% in Friday’s session, set to finish higher on the week. China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index rose more than 2% after a three-day selloff. Stocks in Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan also advanced. Chinese stocks are bouncing back as investors mull the week’s events, including President Xi Jinping’s strengthening ties with India and North Korea as well as market policy proposals. Regulators are considering measures to curb the speed of the rally in its stock market, which may introduce more stable structural growth. Elsewhere in the region, Thailand got a new prime minister, with parliament electing Anutin Charnvirakul on Friday. Thailand’s stock index gained to its highest since mid-August. Shares in India traded lower, dragged by information technology firms. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged down 0.3%, trimming its weekly gain. Markets have almost fully priced a Fed rate cut in September, with a follow-up reduction cemented by year-end, according to swaps data compiled by Bloomberg In rates, Treasuries are steady with yields close to Thursday’s closing levels as investors wait for the August payrolls data and the potential impact on expectations for the September FOMC decision. Treasury yields marginally richer on the day, underpinned by gilts, where a broader bull-flattening move has been seen over the early London session. US 10-year yields trade around 4.15%, with gilts outperforming by 1bp in the sector and bunds trading broadly in line. Ahead of the jobs report, Fed-dated OIS is pricing in around 23bp of easing for the September policy meeting. For nonfarm payrolls change, which was 73k in July, the Bloomberg survey median estimate is 75k, matching the crowd-sourced whisper number. French and UK bonds advanced, while bunds were little changed. In commodities, WTI held near $63.44 and gold added about $3 to $3,548/oz. Bitcoin gained another 2%. Today's US economic data slate includes only the August jobs report at 8:30am. The Fed speaker slate is empty for the session, and external communications blackout ahead of Sept. 17 rate decision begins Saturday Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini +0.2% Nasdaq 100 mini +0.5% Russell 2000 mini +0.1% Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2% DAX +0.1% CAC 40 little changed 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.16% VIX -0.1 points at 15.24 Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1203.5 euro +0.4% at $1.1692 WTI crude -0.3% at $63.32/barrel Top Overnight News Trump signed an order implementing the US-Japan trade deal, imposing a 15% tariff on most imports. The pact requires Japan to set up a $550 billion US investment fund or risk higher levies. BBG At a White House dinner, Silicon Valley leaders including Mark Zuckerberg pledged to increase AI spending. Trump said he would soon impose tariffs on chip imports but exempt goods from companies such as Apple that are expanding their US investments. BBG Lisa Cook argued that Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her is a cover for his real motive — taking control of the Fed. She pointed to a court ruling that Trump’s purported concerns about antisemitism at Harvard were a “smokescreen” to target the university. BBG Congressional leaders begin formulating a short-term deal to avoid a gov’t shutdown on 10/1, but the two sides still have a lot to work through in the coming weeks. NYT China's investors borrowed a record $322 billion to buy stocks this year, but sharp corrections this week and heightened regulatory scrutiny to cool overheated markets are now making them jittery about the leveraged bets. While risks for China's broader financial system have been elevated for months due to deflation in the economy and a persistent property debt crisis, the stock investors' recent actions could add more pressure. RTRS Japan’s nominal wages rose by a more-than-expected 4.1% in July from a year earlier, the fastest clip in seven months. Separately, prefectures nationwide will raise the minimum hourly wage by a record 6.3%. BBG U.K. retail sales increased at the start of the third quarter, a boost as the country looks to get some momentum into its sluggish economy. Retail sales came in at +0.5% M/M (vs. the Street +0.3%). WSJ German factory orders unexpectedly slumped in July, as weaker foreign orders reflected a fragile export market amid increased trade barriers. Factory orders came in at coming in -2.9% M/M (vs. the Street +0.5%). WSJ Trump is to sign an order on Friday to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, according to a White House official. However, a CBS News reporter noted regarding President Trump signing an executive order to rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War, that it will be a secondary title as an official name change requires an Act of Congress. US House Speaker Johnson has, in an interview with Punchbowl, opened the door somewhat to extending Obamacare subsidies that are scheduled to expire at end-2025. Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the labor market might be deteriorating and inflation might be picking back up, while he added there is a bit of wait and see because of uncertainty and that rates are better indicators for the labour market than raw job growth. Goolsbee also commented that the impact of tariffs on price increases is dependent on sector and noted the September Fed meeting is a live meeting, but he hasn't made up his mind. Trade/Tariffs US President Trump said he would be placing chip tariffs “very shortly,” which will be “fairly substantial”, but signalled Apple (AAPL) and others will be safe during his dinner with tech CEOs at the White House on Thursday, according to CNBC. US President Trump is reportedly preparing to start North American trade deal renegotiations and public consultations on the key US trade deal with Mexico and Canada, which will be the first acts of a likely lengthy and contentious review, according to WSJ. White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement, while it added that Japan is working towards an expedited implementation of a 75% increase of US rice procurements and the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports. It was later reported that Japan and the US issued a memorandum of understanding on the USD 550bln plans with investments to be made up to January 19th, 2029. Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy and employment, while he added the US and Japan tariff agreement is very meaningful and it is important to implement the agreement sincerely and promptly. Japan's top trade negotiator Akazawa said Japan agreed to issue joint statements on the US request and they signed an MOU on Japan's investment package. Akazawa said nothing had changed from the July 22nd agreement with regards to the USD 550bln investment package and the amended executive order does not mention most-favoured-nation treatment for pharma and chips, and will continue to push for the treatment. Furthermore, he said their stance that additional tariffs themselves are regrettable remains unchanged, as well as stated that lower auto tariffs will take effect within up to two weeks. Anthropic is to stop selling AI services to majority Chinese-owned groups and is trying to limit the ability of Beijing to use its technology to benefit China’s military and intelligence services, while Anthropic's policy will also apply to US adversaries including Russia, Iran and North Korea, according to FT. Indian oil skips US crude and buys Nigerian and Middle Eastern oil via tender, according to Reuters sources. Swiss Economy Minister set to visit the US this weekend, according to EconomieSuisse. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks mostly took their cues from the gains on Wall Street where participants digested soft labour metrics and dovish Fed speak ahead of today's NFP report. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in real estate, tech and consumer discretionary, although gains were capped with the commodity-related sectors, consumer staples and utilities at the other end of the spectrum. Nikkei 225 rallied at the open and briefly returned to above the 43,000 level after US President Trump signed an Executive Order to officially implement the US-Japan trade deal in which the US will apply a baseline 15% tariff on nearly all Japanese imports, although some of the gains were pared amid a firmer yen and an acceleration in Labour Cash Earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the constructive mood following recent tech-related support pledges by Beijing and with DeepSeek targeting an AI agent release by year-end, while reports also noted the PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity this month and that cities in China are said to examine new tactics to buy unsold homes. Top Asian News PBoC may inject reasonably ample liquidity into the money markets this month, according to China Securities Journal. Japanese PM Ishiba says they are to compile an economic package this autumn. European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.3%) opened modestly firmer across the board but dipped slightly off best levels in early-morning trade. Currently, still displaying a positive picture in Europe, but are off best levels. European sectors hold a positive bias, and with the breadth of the market to the downside fairly narrow. Basic Resources takes the top spot, buoyed by strength in underlying metals prices. Tech follows closely behind, with the sector boosted by a trifecta of factors; 1) strong Broadcom results, 2) broker upgrade for STMicroelectronics, 3) broker upgrade for ASML. On the latter, ASML was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and got a 13% boost to its PT. Analysts cite recent underperformance, and note that the "overhang" from China is well understood by investors. Top European News German GDP growth is exp. to grow by 0.2% in 2025 (prev. saw 0.3%); sees growth of 1.7% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, via DIW. FX After a resilient showing in the wake of soft labour metrics yesterday, DXY is on the backfoot in the run up to the August payrolls report. For today's release, expectations are for a modest uptick in payrolls to 75k from 73k and for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. DXY has slipped below yesterday's trough @ 98.08 and is sat around its 50DMA at 98.05. EUR is currently taking advantage of the broadly weaker USD. Newsflow surrounding the Eurozone is light during today's trade and therefore the dollar is likely to be in the driving seat for EUR/USD. Traders are mindful of French political risk at the start of next week with PM Bayrou set to face a confidence vote on Monday. Betting markets are overwhelmingly expecting him to suffer a defeat. Desks have touted a move towards 90bps (2024 peak) in the event Bayour is defeated with the risk of a venture to 100bps if fresh elections are called. The follow-through into the EUR may be limited by the looming ECB rate decision and accompanying macro projections. EUR/USD has moved back above its 50DMA at 1.1664 with clean air until the 1.17 mark. USD/JPY has trickled closer towards the 148.00 level to the downside after mixed data including the hotter-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings which showed the fastest pace of increase in seven months, while Real Cash Earnings unexpectedly grew for the first time in seven months. On the trade front, the White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. On the trade front, the White House said US President Trump signed an Executive Order officially implementing the US-Japan trade agreement. Subsequently, Japanese PM Ishiba reiterated they will work to minimise the impacts on the economy. For USD/JPY, a soft NFP print could see the pair lose its footing on a 148 handle and head towards Thursday's low at 147.78. GBP is firmer vs. the USD but not showing much in the way of outperformance relative to peers despite a better-than-expected outturn for UK retail sales. Commenting on the release, Pantheon Macroeconomics observes that the ONS made major revisions to retail sales today by correcting seasonal factors. As such, H1 retail sales were actually softer than initially assumed. For the BoE, following the data and the MPC's appearance before the TSC earlier in the week, Investec now expects that the Bank rate will remain on hold over the remainder of the year at 4.00%. Cable has eclipsed Thursday's best at 1.3460 and is now eyeing the 50DMA at 1.3477. Antipodeans are both are firmer vs. the USD and towards the top of the G10 leaderboard in what has been a choppy/directionless week for AUD/USD and NZD/USD. Fresh macro drivers from Australia and New Zealand are lacking and as such, both pairs' fates are likely to be determined by events stateside and broader risk dynamics. CAD is marginally stronger vs. the USD in the run up to Canadian and US labour market reports, both due at 13:30BST. It is likely that the latter will deliver the greatest source of traction for the pair. Fixed Income USTs are contained into NFP. Holding in a very thin 112-28 to 113-00 band, but at a WTD high and comfortably above the week’s 112-15+ opening mark. NFP is expected to inch higher to 75k (prev. 73k) in August, though revisions to the series will undoubtedly draw attention, particularly as Trump has replaced the BLS head since the last report. OATs are firmer counting down to Monday’s confidence vote. The base case remains that PM Bayrou will lose. Thereafter, President Macron is likely to try and appoint a new PM in an attempt to bring the centrist bloc and the Left closer; current Finance Minister Lombard is a potential candidate. The bias for OAT-Bund 10yr spread is likely some further widening, though the fall of Bayrou itself is likely already priced at this stage. Bunds are trading in-line with USTs. Specifics for the EZ light, aside from more updates (downgrades) to the German growth outlook from domestic bodies. Elsewhere, China has announced preliminary anti-dumping measures on the EZ, though this has had no discernible effect. Currently at the upper end of a 128.52-74 band, at a fresh WTD high and looking to 128.81 and 128.87 from last week. Gilts are outperforming, higher by just over 40 ticks at most in 90.65-87 parameters. Despite the stronger-than-expected UK retail metrics for July, the ONS’ revision YTD data has trimmed the H1 monthly average by 10bps. Revisions which have seemingly provided some bullish impetus for Gilts. Though, ultimately, the revision is unlikely to change the BoE’s trajectory and the strength may just be more a case of Gilts continuing the move seen in the last few days and paring some of the recent pressure spurred by fiscal jitters. Commodities Crude futures were lower but now flat after recent declines and reports that OPEC-8 are mulling another production hike at the meeting on Sunday, while demand was also not helped by the surprise build in the weekly EIA headline crude stockpiles. In geopolitics, Russia's Kremlin says the next round of Russian President Putin and US President Trump talks are possible in the near future, via Ria. This follows on from Trump saying he will speak to Putin to get the war in Ukraine settled. WTI currently resides in a 63.04-63.42/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.59-66.97/bbl range. Spot gold is kept afloat in rangebound trade after yesterday's sideways price action and with the NFP report on the horizon. Spot gold resides in a USD 3,540.01-3,561.28/oz range at the time of writing, yesterday's range between USD 3,511.75-3,564.15/oz, and with the all-time-high set on Wednesday at USD 3,578.66/oz. Copper futures steadily gain alongside the mostly positive risk appetite in the Asia-Pac region and then Europe. 3M LME copper remains under USD 10k after recently topping the level. The contract currently trades in a USD 9,895.30-9,991.45/t range awaiting the US jobs report. Russian Deputy PM Novak said OPEC-8 are not discussing production increase now and no agenda has been set for the upcoming OPEC+ meeting yet, while he added that current market conditions and forecasts are to be considered. Novak also said the OPEC+ deal shows its effectiveness and the level of implementation of OPEC+ deal is 102% in January-August. Aluminium producers seek USD 98-103/t in Oct-Dec premiums in talks with Japan, down 5-9% from current quarter levels, via Reuters citing sources. Geopolitics: Ukraine Russia's Kremlin says the next round of Russian President Putin and US President Trump talks are possible in the near future, via Ria US President Trump said he will speak to Russian President Putin in the near future and they are going to get the war in Ukraine settled. Kremlin's Peskov said security guarantees for Ukraine cannot be provided by foreign military contingents, while the Kremlin said the level of the Russian negotiating team with Ukraine is already quite high and a huge amount of work needs to be done before there could be a meeting between Russia and Ukraine at a higher or the highest level, according to RIA. Russian President Putin says "we have open dialogue with US President Trump"; have not yet spoken to Trump. Russia assumes military contingents in Ukraine will be legal targets for strikes and sees no sense in their deployment if there is a peace deal. Adds, "we are ready for a summit with Ukraine, please come to Russia, we will provide security"; says the best place for a summit is Moscow. Iranian delegation will be in Vienna for IAEA talks today, via WSJ's Norman. EU Energy Commissioner says if there is a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, "we should still not return to Russian energy", adding this is not a temporary sanction; US supports that EU stops Russian energy imports. Will meet US Energy Secretary next week to discuss the trade deal. Ukrainian President Zelensky says he has spoken with NATO's Rutte, security guarantee work needs to be accelerated. Geopolitics: Other South Korea, Japan and US militaries will conduct a joint aerial, naval and cyber defence exercise from September 15th. North Korean leader Kim returned to North Korea following a summit with Chinese President Xi, while Kim told Xi about strengthening strategic cooperation and protecting common interests in international and regional issues. Furthermore, the leaders exchanged candid opinions on strengthening high-ranking strategic communication and Kim said that North Korea will continue to support China to protect its sovereignty, territory and development interests, according to KCNA. US Secretary of State Rubio announced a new US visa restriction policy and will restrict US visas for Central American nationals who act on behalf of China. US and Taiwanese defence officials held secret talks in Alaska, according to FT. US Defense Department said two Venezuelan military aircraft flew near a US Navy vessel in international waters. US Event Calendar 8:30 am: Aug Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 75k, prior 73k 8:30 am: Aug Change in Private Payrolls, est. 75k, prior 83k 8:30 am: Aug Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -5k, prior -11k 8:30 am: Aug Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% 8:30 am: Aug Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 3.9% 8:30 am: Aug Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.2% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Today see's the first of the three massive days for markets in the next nine business days. US Payrolls today, US CPI next Thursday and then the FOMC decision the following Wednesday. Ahead of today's start to this run, markets have put in a strong performance over the past 24 hours, after soft data meant investors became increasingly convinced that the Fed would cut rates this month. Those prints pointed to growing weakness in the US labour market, which is top of mind given that last month’s jobs report was unexpectedly bad. So bonds saw a broad rally on both sides of the Atlantic, and the 2yr Treasury yield (-2.9bps) even closed at an 11-month low of 3.59%. In turn, the prospect of imminent rate cuts lifted equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.83%) closing at a new record high. In terms of that jobs report, our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to come in at +100k in August, picking up from the +73k reading back in July, with the unemployment rate staying at 4.2%. However the revisions will be of massive importance after last month saw the biggest downward revisions in over 5 years to the prior two months. As you will no doubt remember this contributed to BLS chief Erika McEntaref losing her job hours after the release. The presumptive nominee E.J. Antoni hasn't yet been confirmed by the Senate with hearings expected this month. After last month's report, the entire picture of labour market resilience after Liberation Day was suddenly undercut, and the current data shows payrolls up by just +19k in May and +14k in June. So as it stands, both the 3-month and 6-month average of payrolls are at their weakest levels of this economic cycle, at +35k and +81k respectively. However such numbers might still reflect a tight labour market as our economists believe that due to the crackdown on immigration and the increase in deportations, the breakeven level of payrolls that keeps the unemployment rate steady could now be as low as 50k per month. Ahead of the big print, labour market jitters got more traction yesterday, as the ADP’s report of private payrolls was a bit weaker than expected in August, at +54k (vs. +68k expected). Then 15 minutes later, we found out that the weekly initial jobless claims hit a 10-week high of 237k in the week ending August 30 (vs. 230k expected). To be fair, there was a bounceback in the ISM services index, which rose to a 6-month high of 52.0 (vs. 51.0 expected). But even there, the employment component was still in contractionary territory at 46.5. So when it came to the labour market, it was hard to generate much of a positive narrative from yesterday’s releases. All that helped to fuel the bond rally, with investors dialling up their expectations for Fed rate cuts over the months ahead. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by the June 2026 meeting rose +3.8bps by the close to 113bps. And in turn, that helped to push Treasury yields lower across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-2.9bps) at an 11-month low of 3.59%, whilst the 10yr yield (-5.6bps) hit a 5-month low of 4.16%. Over the last couple of days, the market has been less worried about inflation but the prices paid component of the ISM services remained at a very high 69.2 yesterday even if it was three tenths less than expected and seven tenths below last month. See my CoTD from yesterday here for why that's still a potential worrying sign for future CPI even if the prices paid number is more volatile. Those inflationary concerns were echoed by Cleveland Fed President Hammack, one of the hawks on the FOMC, who said that “inflation is still too high, and we’re trending in the wrong direction” and reiterated that she did not see the case for a September rate cut. By contrast, NY Fed President Williams said that concerns on the labour market have ticked up relative to ones on inflation and that it will "become appropriate" to cut interest rates "over time", though he did not comment on exact timing. Yesterday also saw the Senate confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran to join the Fed’s Board of Governors, which is an important one given investor concerns about the Fed’s independence. In his testimony, Miran said that “If I’m confirmed to this role, I will act independently, as the Federal Reserve always does”. Miran was also questioned on his intention to take a leave of absence from, but keep his current CEA Chair role as he fills the rest of the Governor term expiring in January, though he said would resign from his CEA post if nominated for a longer term role at the Fed. Separately, we heard that the US Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook committed mortgage fraud. That comes as we await to hear whether Cook will succeed in getting a temporary court order blocking her dismissal. Thrown altogether, this provided a strong backdrop for equities, as investors became increasingly confident that the Fed would cut rates in a couple of weeks’ time. So that helped drive both the S&P 500 (+0.83%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.31%) to new all-time highs. All of the Mag-7 were higher on the day, led by Amazon which jumped +4.29% after Business Insider reported that it is testing a new AI-powered workspace software. Overnight the FT reports that Open AI are teaming up with Broadcom to produce a new AI chip to rival Nvidia. So it'll be interesting to see if that creates any competition to Nvidia over the medium term. Broadcom itself issued a rosy revenue outlook overnight and was up +4.6% in extended trading. Nasdaq futures are up +0.35% overnight with the S&P equivalent up around half that. Switching continents, and attention is increasingly turning back to France, as the confidence vote is being held on Monday in the National Assembly. We should hear the results after 5pm local time. The announcement of the vote several days ago led to considerable market concerns, as investors feared a prolonged bout of instability that would make fiscal tightening even more difficult. But since then, French assets have stabilised over recent days, as a defeat is now widely expected given the positions of the various parties, meaning that the prospect of a defeat in itself isn’t driving market moves anymore. Indeed, French OATs outperformed yesterday, with their 10yr yield down -5.0bps to 3.49%, which was bigger than the decline for bunds (-2.1bps) and BTPs (-4.4bps). So that brought down the 10yr Franco-German spread to 77bps, which is its lowest in the last week and a half. The STOXX 600 rose +0.61%. In Asia, Chinese equities have recovered some of yesterday's losses which came from fears of a regulatory clampdown, with the CSI (+0.92%), the Hang Seng (+0.62%), and the Shanghai Comp (+0.35%) all higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.64%) is also trading higher following President Trump's signing of an executive order that enacts the trade agreement with Japan, under which the US will impose a maximum 15% tariff on most of its products. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.41%) is building on its previous session gains with the KOSPI (+0.08%) struggling for momentum after seeing decent gains in the previous three sessions. Coming back to Japan, nominal wages increased by +4.1% year-on-year (compared to +3.0% anticipated), representing the fastest growth in seven months during July, and an acceleration from a revised +3.1% rise in June. Real wages unexpectedly increased for the first time this year, rising by +0.5% year-on-year in July (against an expected -0.6%), contrasting with a revised -0.8% decline the previous month, thereby strengthening the case for the BOJ to consider a rate hike in the forthcoming months. Additionally, household spending rose by +1.4% year-on-year in July (versus +2.3% expected), compared to a +1.3% increase the prior month. Looking ahead, the main highlight today will be the US jobs report for August. Meanwhile in Europe, data releases include German factory orders and UK retail sales for July. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 08:23
"Incentivizing Elon": Tesla Offers Musk Unprecedented $1 Trillion Pay Package The same leftist activist judge who torpedoed Elon Musk's Tesla pay deal earlier this year will likely go berserk over the company's latest plan: a jaw-dropping 10-year, $1 trillion compensation package for the billionaire. This is the largest in the history of corporate America. Then again, when you're running a company positioned to dominate the 2030s - from EVs to robots to chips to AI - and make the U.S. competitive against China in these critical technologies, it all starts to make sense. Bloomberg reports Musk's trillion-dollar pay package over ten years is contingent on achieving ambitious growth milestones, such as: Musk must expand Tesla's robotaxi business and increase market value from $1 trillion to $8.5 trillion. The terms of the new pay package were outlined in Tesla's proxy filing on Friday. The additional shares would raise Musk's stake in the electric-vehicle maker to at least 25%, a level he has previously stated he wants. Unlocking the full 423 million-share payout will be challenging. To justify an $8.5 trillion market value - up from about $1 trillion on Friday - Tesla would need to sell 12 million additional EVs, secure 10 million autonomous driving subscriptions, deploy 1 million robotaxis, sell 1 million AI-powered robots, and expand adjusted earnings 24-fold to $400 billion. Tesla's proxy filing highlights some novel features of this new CEO performance award: Despite a leftist activist judge in a Delaware court who struck down Musk's prior $50 billion pay package from 2018, Tesla's board offered the CEO an interim $30 billion pay package in August (read here). "Simply put, retaining and incentivizing Elon is fundamental to Tesla achieving these goals and becoming the most valuable company in history," Tesla Board Chair Robyn Denholm wrote in a letter to shareholders. Tesla's proxy filing also details how Musk must participate in the board's development of a framework for long-term succession planning as the CEO. There was also talk that Musk would "wind down" political work... Recall yesterday, Musk was snubbed from a tech CEO party at the White House. As for the leftist activist judge, Democrats, and others on the left who bash capitalism while promoting socialism and Marxism... 🚨 BREAKING - ZOHRAN MAMDANI: “I don't think that we should have billionaires.” Oh man… pic.twitter.com/mM8My038Nu June 29, 2025 ...this pay package will no doubt be the talk of the town among the left. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 08:15
Trump Ready To Place More US Troops In Poland Amid Russia Threat Authored by RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com, Trump told President Karol Nawrocki the U.S. is prepared to expand its 8,000-strong military presence in Poland. The meeting underscores Warsaw’s push for stronger U.S. security guarantees amid Russia’s war on Ukraine. Nawrocki, a conservative close to Trump’s movement, won the election narrowly on a “Poland first” platform while pledging support for Ukraine but opposing NATO membership. US President Donald Trump told his Polish counterpart the United States was ready to increase its military presence in the Central European nation, one of the countries on NATO’s so-called “eastern flank” warily watching Russia's actions. Trump welcomed conservative President Karol Nawrocki to Washington in an event highlighted by a flyover of US F-16 fighter jets honoring a Polish military pilot who had died last month in a crash. Asked if he planned to keep US forces deployed to Poland, Trump replied in the affirmative. "We'll put more there if they want," he added, while citing the United States’ "tremendous relationship" with Poland, one of the more important military and political allies of Ukraine during its war with Russia. "We never even thought in terms of removing soldiers from Poland." "We're with Poland all the way, and we'll help Poland protect itself," Trump added. Warsaw has long sought an increased US military presence in Poland. The United States has based troops in Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, and other European nations since the end of World War II, initially to serve as a deterrence to Soviet aggression on the Continent. The first permanently stationed US troops arrived in Poland in March 2023. There are an estimated 8,000 US troops now garrisoned in Poland, some on a rotational basis. Nawrocki added that it is "the first time in history" that Poland has been happy to host foreign troops. Nawrocki, a vocal admirer of the US leader, said after the talks with Trump that the two presidents had discussed bolstering troop levels, adding that Trump had strongly guaranteed Poland's security. "The success of his [Nawrocki's] special relationship with the MAGA movement and with President Trump would be if the United States increased its presence in Poland," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters a day earlier -- a reference to Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement. Nawrocki was elected in a narrow contest following a campaign echoing many of Trump's slogans and had promised a "Poland first" policy, worrying some in Europe over the country's support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. The election result dealt a major setback to Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a pro-Europe, centrist leader and vocal supporter of Ukraine who had backed Nawrocki's liberal opponent. Nawrocki, too, has voiced support for Ukraine in its war against invading Russian forces. But he has said he opposes NATO membership for Ukraine, a view more and more Poles appear to share. Although largely supportive of Kyiv's fight against Russia, many Poles have grown impatient with the influx of some 1.5 million Ukrainian war refugees and the related costs in the country. Despite some tensions within the Polish leadership, the European Union, and the United States, Nawrocki said there is unity and clarity about the Russian threat. “Regardless of the differences that exist within the European Union, regardless of the differences that exist in Poland between me and the Polish government, I guarantee that on security matters, including at this closed meeting, I spoke unequivocally about how I perceive [Russian President] Vladimir Putin and the threat he poses to the free world,” Nawrocki said. Trump said that "you'll see things happen" if Putin does not move toward peace in his war on Ukraine, building on his long-standing threats of sanctions or tariffs on Moscow. "I have no message to President Putin. He knows where I stand, and he'll make a decision one way or the other," Trump told reporters. A White House official told AFP that Trump plans to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on September 4, along with other European leaders. Zelenskyy and Kyiv's European allies in the "Coalition of the Willing" are scheduled to meet on September 4 in Paris to discuss the situation in Ukraine and potential security guarantees for the country following any peace deal with Russia. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 07:45
Broadcom Jumps Most In Months After $10 Billion OpenAI Chip Order Broadcom shares jumped the most since April in premarket trading, assuming the gains hold into the cash session, after a Financial Times report earlier said the chipmaker will produce a line of artificial intelligence chips for OpenAI. The new chips, set to enter series production next year, will reduce the ChatGPT maker's reliance on Nvidia. On Thursday, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan announced that a new customer had placed a $10 billion order for AI chips. While Tan did not disclose the customer's identity, FT sources confirmed it was OpenAI, noting that the new chips are scheduled to ship in 2026. The market reaction in premarket trading sent Broadcom shares in New York up by more than 9%. If these gains are held into the cash session, this would make the largest daily increase since shares jumped nearly 20% in early April. Year-to-date, shares are up 32% (as of Thursday's close). Shares are headed for the largest daily increase in months. Rally continues. FT sources said OpenAI plans to use the new chips internally. The move mirrors strategies by tech giants such as Amazon, Google, and Meta, which have all developed their own chips to handle massively increasing AI workloads. Here's more from the outlet: On a call with analysts, Tan announced that Broadcom had secured a fourth major customer for its custom AI chip business, as it reported earnings that topped Wall Street estimates. Broadcom does not disclose the names of these customers, but people familiar with the matter confirmed OpenAI was the new client. Broadcom and OpenAI declined to comment. Tan said the deal had lifted the company's growth prospects by bringing "immediate and fairly substantial demand", shipping chips for that customer "pretty strongly" from next year. Commenting on Broadcom's earnings and new AI chip customer, Goldman analyst James Schneider told clients that third-quarter results were solid with upside guidance, and that securing OpenAI as a customer is a huge win that reinforces the bull case: Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to trade up following a solid quarter with guidance above the Street, despite elevated expectations heading into the quarter. We believe the most significant development was Broadcom's announcement that it has converted another new custom silicon customer focused on inference, which is expected to help drive "material" upside to management's prior expectation of AI Semiconductor revenue growth of ~60% in 2026. The company's AI Networking prospects remain compelling heading into 2026 with significant scale-up and scale-out opportunities driven by its Tomahawk 6 and Jericho 4 products. Management noted that it currently has a total backlog of over $110bn, which implies significant business visibility over the next two years. Finally, the company announced that CEO Hock Tan has announced his intention to remain CEO through at least 2030. We remain Buy rated on Broadcom as we see the company remaining the leader in AI custom compute and merchant networking silicon (which is likely to grow in importance), and we believe the company's enterprise software portfolio is under-appreciated. Quarterly results were in line with the Street: Broadcom reported revenue of $16.0 bn, above GS and the Street (Visible Alpha) at $15.9 bn. Gross margin of 78.4% was in line with GS at 78.5% and modestly above the Street at 78.2%. Operating margin of 65.5% was in line with GS and the Street at 65.4%. Operating EPS of $1.69 was modestly below GS at $1.73 and above the Street at $1.67. AI Semiconductor revenue of $5.2 bn was in line with GS at $5.2 bn and above the Street at $5.1 bn. Semiconductor Solutions revenue of $9.2 bn was in line with GS at $9.2 bn and modestly above the Street at $9.1 bn. Infrastructure Software revenue of $6.8 bn was above GS and the Street at $6.7 bn. Other analyst commentary on the Street (courtesy of Bloomberg): Bloomberg Intelligence "Broadcom's strong fiscal 3Q and 4Q guidance beat across all metrics, but more specifically its AI revenue, suggests better- than-anticipated AI custom application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) ramp-ups at its two large customers" JPMorgan (overweight, PT to $400 from $325) Broadcom reported better-than-expected 3Q results and issued solid 4Q revenue outlook "driven by accelerating AI demand" "This performance puts Broadcom on track to drive ~$20B in AI revenues for FY25" Bernstein (outperform, PT $400) Broadcom's 3Q earnings were good "with both semis and software better than expected" "While non-AI semis remain slow to recover AI semis revenues were quite strong" CFRA "AI momentum remains robust with 11 consecutive quarters of growth and hyperscaler infrastructure investments driving sustained demand for custom accelerators" "We expect continued outperformance through CY 2026" Evercore ISI (outperform, PT $342) This was a beat-and-raise report, with AI revenue ahead of Evercore's expectations Meanwhile, OpenAI's deal with Broadcom means less reliance on Nvidia's graphics chips. Shares of Nvidia fell about 1% in premarket trading. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 07:07
UBS: Orsted Lawsuit Signals Wind Talks With Trump Admin "Not Going Well" Revolution Wind LLC, co-owned by Orsted and Global Infrastructure Partners, sued the Trump administration on Thursday over last month's order halting construction of the 80%-complete Revolution Wind offshore project off Rhode Island. The multi-billion-dollar, 65-turbine wind farm was suspended by the Interior Department's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), which cited unspecified national security concerns. The Orsted-backed wind farm venture sued the Trump administration in federal court in Washington. This came shortly before the attorneys general of Connecticut and Rhode Island announced lawsuits of their own in the U.S. District Court for Rhode Island to overturn the stop-work order on the wind farm project, which is slated to produce intermittent electricity (not reliable) for more than 350,000 homes. "The Stop Work Order is invalid and must be set aside because it was issued without statutory authority, in violation of agency regulations and procedures and the Fifth Amendment's Due Process Clause, and is arbitrary and capricious," the lawsuit stated. The lawsuit continued, "If unabated, the Stop Work Order will inflict devastating and irreparable harm on Revolution Wind. Revolution Wind has already spent or committed approximately $5 billion on the project, and will incur over $1 billion in breakaway costs if the project is cancelled, all of which Revolution Wind may lose if the unlawful Stop Work Order remains in effect." Last month, the BOEM issued a directive (read here) to halt all offshore construction activities on the Revolution Wind project. The order stems from a Presidential Memorandum issued on Jan. 20, which triggered a broad review of renewable projects on the Outer Continental Shelf. BOEM listed items it wanted to address with the project: Environmental protections National security concerns (e.g., interference with U.S. defense/naval activity in the exclusive economic zone, high seas, territorial seas). At a press conference earlier, Connecticut Attorney General William Tong called Trump's stop order an "all-out war" on wind power, adding, "This is an utterly unlawful and baseless — and frankly senseless and stupid stop-work order." While White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told Bloomberg in a statement, "President Trump's day one executive order instructed agencies to review leases and permitting practices for wind projects with consideration for our country's growing demands for reliable energy, effects on energy costs for American families, the importance of marine life and fishing industry, and the impacts on ocean currents and wind patterns." Here's UBS analyst Dominic Ellis' first take on the legal spat: Orsted announced it is suing the Trump administration in an effort to get the stop work order on Revolution Wind removed. This does not look to me like a sign that behind the scenes negotiations are going well. From memory, Equinor threatened a lawsuit over Empire Wind but never formally filed before the suspension was lifted. Though over 68% of Orsted shareholders have indicated they will vote to approve the rights issue at tomorrow's EGM, the key question now is how soon (if at all) Orsted can resolve its issues in the U.S. The lawsuit suggests a resolution is not imminent, in my opinion, though obviously its impossible to tell from the outside looking in. Connecticut and Rhode Island have also both announced they are suing the administration. Last month, Orsted shares in Denmark plunged due to the combination of a rights issue, a halt order on the wind farm, and overall pessimism across the green energy sector. Wind Giant Orsted Suffers Worst Week On Record As Green Energy Demise Accelerates Orsted Shares Crash Below IPO Price On "Unexpected" Rights Issue Orsted Shares Crash To Record Lows After Trump Halts Rhode Island Offshore Wind Project The Trump administration is prioritizing reliable, cheap fossil fuel power generation, along with a nuclear plant pipeline that is expected to be operational later this decade, extending into the 2030s. All of this stable power is what's needed on fragile grids nationwide amid the AI data center supercycle. Green is too fragile. We wouldn't be surprised if a few 'Solyndra-style' implosions rock the green industry within Trump's second term. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 05:45
Top German Judge Says Overzealous ECHR 'Endangers The Existence Of Western Democracies' Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News, Hans-Jürgen Papier, Germany’s former chief justice and one of the country’s most senior legal scholars, has warned that the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is undermining national sovereignty by creating what he called a “de facto right to immigration through the back door.” The 82-year-old Ludwig Maximilian University professor, who led Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court at the start of Angela Merkel’s chancellorship, told The Times newspaper that a growing body of asylum case law from national courts and the ECHR in Strasbourg had created an “ever deeper reaching and ever more closely meshed agglomeration” of rulings. These, he said, were now “settling like mildew over the states’ political power to take action.” In his view, the result has been a dramatic broadening of the right to asylum, far beyond what was originally intended under the Geneva Convention. “The citizens expect those with political responsibility to revise the asylum policies to suit the changed circumstances. But that is in danger of failing because of the ossification of a body of law that is getting increasingly rarefied and ultimately looks irreversible to many politicians,” he said. Papier criticized the way European courts have interpreted Articles 3 and 8 of the ECHR — the rights against inhuman treatment and to family life — to block deportations, including cases where asylum seekers could face homelessness or irregular work in other EU states. “That simply goes too far,” he argued. “Here, human dignity is being treated like small change and thereby robbed of its special dignified status.” The former judge warned that the overzealous application of human rights laws by the ECHR was “generally destroying the European citizen’s trust in the capacity of their democratic institutions to act, and so at the end of the day endangering the existence of Western democracies.” He called for reforms to the ECHR itself, though he admitted this was unlikely given the need for consensus among all 46 Council of Europe states. Instead, he suggested that the EU or national parliaments draft a “precisely formulated law of migration” that would reduce judges’ scope for interpretation and return asylum rights to the original Geneva standards. Among his proposals are electronic asylum visas for those with a realistic chance of success, strict annual ceilings on “subsidiary protection” — a weaker asylum status covering people at risk of violence or hardship — and potential third-country solutions for processing applications abroad. Papier has long been a critic of what he sees as Europe’s open-border approach. In an op-ed for the Bild newspaper in November 2023, he warned that “essentially nothing has changed” since the 2015 migration crisis. He accused Germany of allowing migrants to bypass the Dublin Regulation, which requires asylum seekers to lodge claims in the first EU country they enter, and insisted that Berlin should move “as quickly as possible” to introduce clear and enforceable rules. “It is not about affecting the right to asylum for people who are actually being persecuted,” he wrote, “it is about protecting this right from being abused for reasons that are clearly unrelated to asylum.” Read more here... Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 05:00
Watch: Brand-New Superyacht Sinks Minutes After Launch Luxury motor yacht builder Medyılmaz Shipyard launched a 24-meter (or about 79-foot) superyacht named Dolce Vento, which capsized and sank just minutes into its maiden voyage earlier this week. On Tuesday, Dolce Vento was launched from the Ereğli district of Zonguldak, Turkey, according to SuperYacht Times. Within about 15 minutes, the vessel developed a “stabilization issue,” began taking on water, and ultimately capsized, the yachting news website wrote in a report. ‼️The newly launched 24-metre Medyılmaz Shipyard motor yacht Dolce Vento sinking just minutes after entering the water in the Ereğli district of Zonguldak, Turkey. At the time of the launch, the yacht’s owner, captain and two crew members were allegedly onboard.Find out more via… pic.twitter.com/iienA7qVqD September 3, 2025 SuperYacht Times provided more color on the vessel: Dolce Vento was built at Medyılmaz Shipyard with construction beginning in 2024. The 160 GT motor yacht features a steel hull and aluminium superstructure and was known as NB65 while in-build. The owner of the vessel was not named in the report. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 04:15
Microplastics Are Linked To Heart Disease - Here's How To Lower Your Risk Authored by Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Tiny yet treacherous, microplastics have infiltrated our bodies, silently wreaking havoc on our health. Emerging research reveals their alarming link to weakened immune systems, increased risk of heart disease, and even early death. Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) offers a time-honored solution, aiming to restore balance in the body and help protect against these widespread pollutants. Microplastics Can Stay in the Body Microplastics enter the human body through food, air, and skin contact. A study published in the Archives of Toxicology in June identified polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate, and polyacrylonitrile nanoparticles in autopsy samples. These findings show that microplastics can pass through biological barriers and accumulate in specific tissues. The highest levels were found in the thyroid, kidneys, and brain tissues. Lo Yueh-Hsia, an associate professor from the Department of Life Sciences at Taiwan’s National Central University, shared that microplastics have been detected in human blood. This suggests that not all microplastics are excreted through feces or urine. Some may stay in the body, and how they are broken down and eliminated is still unclear. How Microplastics Affect Hormones and Immunity More than 10,000 chemicals are used in plastic production, including plasticizers, flame retardants, colorants, and ultraviolet stabilizers—many of which are proven endocrine disruptors, such as bisphenol A. These substances can interfere with hormone function, harm the reproductive system, and weaken the immune system. Studies show that microplastics may trigger inflammation. When they build up in the spaces around cells, they can block communication pathways and prevent immune cells from responding properly. Microplastics May Increase Risk of Heart Disease and Stroke Growing evidence suggests a link between microplastics and impaired cardiovascular function. A 2024 study in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology found that microplastics and nanoplastics may damage blood vessels and promote clotting through several toxic effects. Extremely powerful antioxidant... check it out Dr. Chia-Ming Chang, an attending physician in the Department of Medical Genetics and Eugenics at Taipei Veterans General Hospital, told The Epoch Times that microplastics lingering in blood vessels can attract immune cells, initiating repair processes and triggering chronic inflammation. This worsens the risk of atherosclerosis—fatty buildup in the arteries—and thrombosis—blood clot formation—increasing the likelihood of stroke and death. A study in The New England Journal of Medicine found that, over a 34-month follow-up period, patients with microplastics detected in their carotid artery plaques had a higher risk of stroke, death, or other serious events than those without detectable microplastics. How TCM May Help Lower Risk Conventional medicine currently focuses on limiting exposure, drinking enough water, and eating more fiber to promote excretion. However, TCM takes a different route—strengthening the body’s defenses and detox systems to make it harder for toxins to take hold in the first place. Dr. Jingduan Yang, CEO of Northern Medical Center in New York, told The Epoch Times: “In TCM, we see microplastics as a modern toxin. When the body’s vital energy is deficient, foreign substances can invade and lodge in tissues. The key is to strengthen the body’s metabolic and detoxification functions to address the problem at its root.” Read the rest here... Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 03:30
France Issues Arrest Warrant For Syria's Assad, Who's Believed Living In "Russia's Beverly Hills" France this week issued an arrest warrant for Syria's ex-President Bashar al-Assad, who has been living in Russia under the protection of the Putin government, after he was overthrown on December 8 by invading Hayat Tahrir al-Sham forces under Jolani (and backed by external governments). A French court additionally issued arrest warrants for seven former top Syrian officials. It charges that Assad committed war crimes as his forces allegedly bombed a press center in Homs in February 2012, which killed prominent American journalist Marie Colvin and French photographer Remi Ochlik, along with injuring others. via Associated Press Her death drove US and world headlines, and came at a height of global coverage of Syria, and at a moment then President Barack Obama began to more openly call for regime change in Damascus. Mainstream media claimed a 'democratic uprising' against Assad led by 'moderate rebels' - though many of the same outlets would years later be forced to admit that Al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked militants were at the forefront of the regime change efforts. Western and Gulf intelligence agencies were supporting and stoking jihadist factions as well. An anti-Assad opposition outlet, Syrian Centre for Media and Freedom of Expression, apparently helped with the new legal action and warrant for Assad. It said in a statement, "The judicial investigation clearly established that the attack on the informal press centre in Bab Amr was part of the Syrian regime’s explicit intention to target foreign journalists in order to limit media coverage of its crimes and force them to leave the city and the country." The death of Colvin and her colleagues occurred reportedly when a rocket hit the "informal press center" on February 22, 2012. This was alleged as a "targeted bombing" - however, some independent analysts questioned at the time what Assad would have to gain from going out of his way to deliberately kill a leading journalist who worked for London's Sunday Times. As for Assad, he's believed to be residing with his family at an unknown location in Moscow. He's not made a single statement since being ousted and sent into exile. One report says: Six months after fleeing Syria following the fall of his regime, former President Bashar al-Assad is reportedly living in opulent exile in Moscow, sheltered from justice but under intense secrecy and likely surveillance by his Russian hosts. According to an investigative report by France Info, Assad arrived in Russia on December 8, 2024, after being ousted by the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The report places him in the ultra-luxurious “City of Capitals” complex in Moscow's business district, though alternative sources point to the elite Rublyovka suburb, often referred to as “Russia’s Beverly Hills.” There's been much reporting and speculation over how his government fell so rapidly, with one prime theory involving an Israeli-backed (or other foreign intel agency) hack of his high military's command's communications systems. Marie Colvin, file image Certainly the US-led sanctions, combined with American troop occupation of Syria's oil and gas fields, greatly contributed and kept the population in misery. Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 02:45
EU Flag Ordered Removed From Polish President's Office: Report Via Remix News, Polish President Karol Nawrocki ordered the European Union flag removed from his office, and now, other officials have followed his example, Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza reported. The source cited by Gazeta Wyborcza stated that removing the EU flag from the office was one of the first decisions after Nawrocki moved into the Presidential Palace. “No order was issued in this regard, but everyone considered it a signal to take down the flags wherever they were,” the source said. According to the same report, Paweł Szefernaker, head of the President’s Office, also removed the EU flag from his office. However, Gazeta Wyborcza may be making the issue bigger than it actually is, as the EU flag is still present outside the building, where it is supposed to be most visible. The head of state’s spokesman, Rafał Leśkiewicz, told Gazeta Wyborcza that the EU flag “is present” in the Presidential Chancellery. He emphasized that three flags were present during Karol Nawrocki’s statements last week: the Polish flag, NATO, and the EU flag. “The spokesman did not provide any response regarding the removal of the EU flag from the head of state’s office. Photographs from Andrzej Duda’s presidency show that the EU flag was there, standing next to the white-and-red one,” according to Gazeta Wyborcza. The paper is not known to be friendly to Nawrocki. In a commentary published on the newspaper’s front page on Wednesday, Wojciech Maziarski writes that “the president is having EU flags displayed during some of his speeches, just for show, to mislead public opinion and lull the vigilance of those citizens who are terrified by the prospect of Poland’s strategic isolation.” “Let’s not underestimate this gesture. It’s not a curiosity about the interior design of government offices, but a political declaration indicating the goals of the man who, by the will of a tiny majority of voters, became the leader of our country. The declaration is all the more important because it was not made public,” the columnist writes. Notably, the columnist wrote that the democratic winner of the election only won by the “will of a tiny majority of voters.” Read more here... Tyler Durden Fri, 09/05/2025 - 02:00
The Rise Of A Multipolar World Order: The West Just Watched The World Shift In Tianjin Authored by Prof. Ruel F. Pepa via GlobalResearch.ca, At the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, leaders representing over half of humanity signaled the rise of a multipolar world order. As China, Russia, India, and Central Asia push new financial and trade systems, the West risks being left on the sidelines. When the leaders of China, Russia, India, and several Central Asian states gathered in Tianjin last week for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit, the world should have paid far closer attention. Collectively, the countries represented at the table account for more than half of humanity, command immense reserves of natural resources, and increasingly drive a larger share of global GDP. This is not a peripheral coalition but a core pillar of the international system in the making. Yet much of the Western press treated the gathering as little more than a diplomatic sideshow, overshadowed by domestic political debates or the latest updates from NATO. That was a mistake. What unfolded in Tianjin was not just another regional summit. It was the clearest indication yet that the unipolar world of U.S. primacy, which dominated the decades after the Cold War, is giving way to a new and contested multipolar order. The symbolism was unmistakable. Beijing positioned the SCO as a platform for “equal partnership,” implicitly contrasting it with Western alliances built around hierarchy and U.S. leadership. Moscow emphasized strategic coordination in the face of sanctions and military pressure from the West. India, while carefully balancing its ties with Washington, underscored its role as a civilizational power charting an independent path. The Central Asian republics, long seen as geopolitical battlegrounds between outside powers, asserted their relevance as connectors of trade, energy, and security across Eurasia. Beyond symbolism, the summit carried substance. Agreements on energy cooperation, cross-border infrastructure, digital technology, and security coordination point toward an increasingly institutionalized bloc. Taken together, they signal that the SCO is evolving from a loose forum into a framework capable of shaping the rules of the 21st-century world. For policymakers in Washington and European capitals, the lesson is sobering. Ignoring the SCO or dismissing it as a talking shop risks overlooking the consolidation of an alternative power center that is steadily building legitimacy outside of Western institutions. For the rest of the world, particularly in the Global South, Tianjin served as a reminder that power is no longer concentrated in a single pole, but dispersed across multiple capitals with diverging visions of order. The summit was therefore more than a diplomatic calendar entry. It was a milestone in the slow but unmistakable rebalancing of global power and a process that will define international politics for decades to come. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the SCO Summit. (GODL-India) A New Architecture Emerges Chinese President Xi Jinping used the summit to press his vision of a world that renders Cold War mentalities a matter of the past. His remarks were not mere diplomatic pleasantries; they were a direct critique of the U.S.-led alliance system and its reliance on deterrence, sanctions, and bloc politics. Backed vocally by Vladimir Putin, Xi pledged to accelerate the creation of a multipolar order in which Western dominance would be checked by new centers of power across Eurasia and beyond [1]. What distinguished Tianjin from previous summits was that these calls were tied to concrete initiatives. Beijing unveiled a 10-year development strategy for the SCO, underwritten with billions of dollars in loans and grants earmarked for infrastructure, energy corridors, and digital connectivity projects [2]. This framework goes well beyond aspirational communiqués: it signals a deliberate attempt to institutionalize the SCO as both an economic and geopolitical force. One of the boldest proposals on the table was the creation of a dedicated SCO development bank that poses an explicit challenge to the Bretton Woods institutions, particularly the IMF and World Bank. Such a body, if realized, would allow SCO members to finance projects without the conditionalities often imposed by Western lenders. It would also complement other Chinese-led initiatives such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the Belt and Road Initiative, weaving them into a broader Eurasian financial ecosystem. The implications are far-reaching. For decades, the global financial order has revolved around institutions headquartered in Washington and Brussels, shaping development trajectories in the Global South. By offering alternative sources of capital, Beijing and its partners are signaling that the monopoly of Western financial governance is coming to an end. The SCO’s proposed bank would not only fund railways, pipelines, and fiber-optic networks across Eurasia but also serve as a symbolic assertion of financial sovereignty. The message from Tianjin was unambiguous: the institutions of the West will no longer go unchallenged. A parallel architecture emerging reflects the priorities of Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, and the capitals of Central Asia. It is not yet clear how cohesive or durable this architecture will prove, but its mere existence underscores that the world has moved beyond unipolarity. The battle is no longer over whether the West will be challenged, but over how rapidly alternative institutions can be consolidated, and how effectively they can deliver. Central Asia at the Core The Shanghai Cooperation Organization is increasingly positioning Central Asia as the backbone of the emerging multipolar world. Far from being a peripheral region, the Central Asian republics are becoming the crossroads of Eurasian connectivity and influence. Trade corridors linking Shanghai to St. Petersburg are facilitating the movement of goods, capital, and people across thousands of kilometers. Energy pipelines crisscross Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and beyond, ensuring that the region’s vast natural resources flow to both Chinese and Russian markets while integrating it into a broader strategic network. Meanwhile, digital “Silk Roads” are introducing Chinese standards for 5G, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications infrastructure, further embedding Beijing’s technological footprint across the continent [3]. For decades, Central Asia was largely treated as a geopolitical periphery, a buffer zone caught between the lingering influence of Russia and the rising ambitions of China. Moscow maintained traditional security ties and economic leverage, while Beijing cultivated trade and investment links primarily through infrastructure projects. Western powers, by contrast, engaged only sporadically, mostly through development aid or counterterrorism initiatives. The region’s strategic importance was recognized, but its potential as a hub of independent, multipolar influence remained unrealized. That era is now coming to an end. With the SCO providing both institutional frameworks and concrete projects, Central Asia is transitioning from a passive periphery to an active strategic heartland of the new order. Its cities, railways, pipelines, and digital networks are not just local assets but the connective tissue of a Eurasian system designed to operate largely independently of Western-dominated institutions. By anchoring trade, energy, and technology in Central Asia, Beijing, Moscow, and their partners are effectively recasting the region as a central node in the global architecture of power. The implications are profound. Central Asia is no longer a “backyard” for external powers; it is a linchpin of geopolitical strategy, economic integration, and technological standard-setting. As the SCO continues to consolidate its influence, the region’s rising prominence underscores that multipolarity is not merely a distant aspiration; it is being physically and institutionally constructed, rail line by rail line, pipeline by pipeline, and gigabyte by gigabyte. The Electro-Yuan Gambit Perhaps the boldest and most consequential development in Tianjin was Chinese President Xi Jinping’s call to expand the use of the yuan in energy settlements. Analysts quickly dubbed the concept the “electro-yuan,” a system designed to link China’s digital currency with cross-border trade in oil, gas, and electricity. Unlike conventional trade settlements, which rely on correspondent banking in U.S. dollars, the electro-yuan would enable real-time, blockchain-enabled transactions directly between SCO member states, bypassing traditional financial intermediaries. This is about far more than convenience or modernization. If widely adopted, the electro-yuan could significantly weaken the petrodollar system, which has underpinned U.S. financial dominance since the 1970s. The dollar’s centrality in global energy markets has long allowed Washington to exert extraordinary influence over international finance and foreign policy. By creating a credible alternative settlement system, Beijing and its SCO partners would undermine this leverage, diminishing the reach of dollar-based sanctions and reducing the United States’ ability to enforce geopolitical objectives through financial pressure. The implications extend beyond energy. A robust electro-yuan network could accelerate the internationalization of China’s digital currency, the e-CNY, and provide a model for other nations seeking to hedge against the dollar. Coupled with SCO-led development projects and cross-border trade corridors, it represents a deliberate attempt to construct the “plumbing” of a parallel financial system that operates on terms favorable to Eurasian partners rather than Western institutions. The ripple effects for global markets could be profound. If SCO countries begin pricing energy, commodities, and infrastructure projects in yuan rather than dollars, it could reduce demand for U.S. currency reserves, influence exchange rates, and reshape global investment flows. Commodity markets may see shifts in pricing benchmarks, particularly in oil and natural gas, as the electro-yuan provides a viable alternative to the dollar-based contracts that dominate today. For investors and multinational corporations, reliance on the dollar as the default currency for trade and finance may gradually diminish, introducing new risks and opportunities in hedging, capital allocation, and currency management. For policymakers in Washington and Brussels, the message is stark: the rules of global finance may be shifting beneath their feet. A system that decouples trade and investment from the dollar would not only reduce the United States’ economic influence but also recalibrate global alliances, making financial sovereignty a tangible tool of statecraft for countries like China, Russia, and their SCO partners. In short, the electro-yuan is more than a financial experiment but a strategic gambit, signaling that the SCO is not content merely to challenge Western hegemony rhetorically. It is building the infrastructure that could one day rival, and perhaps circumvent, the very foundations of U.S.-led global economic power, with consequences that extend to every corner of the global market. India’s Pragmatic Hedge The presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Tianjin summit lent the gathering even greater weight and global significance. Historically cautious about Chinese-led initiatives, India has often approached regional multilateral frameworks with skepticism, wary of being overshadowed by Beijing or Moscow. Modi’s participation signaled a subtle but meaningful shift in India’s strategic calculus that acknowledged engagement, rather than isolation which is essential in a rapidly evolving multipolar world. Image: Xi Jinping meeting with Narendra Modi (GODL-India) At Tianjin, New Delhi agreed to concrete measures aimed at rebalancing trade with China, loosening visa restrictions, and enhancing connectivity initiatives within the SCO framework [4]. These steps demonstrate a willingness to separate economic pragmatism from ongoing territorial and border disputes, particularly in regions such as Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh. By compartmentalizing these issues, India is signaling that it can cooperate on economic and regional integration while maintaining its security concerns. For India, engagement in the SCO is not a matter of siding with Beijing or Moscow. Instead, it reflects a strategic hedging approach: mitigating the risks posed by tariff threats from Washington, strengthening resilience against supply chain disruptions, and ensuring that it cannot be sidelined from emerging Eurasian trade and infrastructure networks. By participating actively, India secures a voice in shaping regional rules and norms rather than remaining a passive observer to a process that will define the geopolitical landscape for decades. This approach aligns with India’s broader foreign policy of “strategic autonomy” wherein flexibility is maintained to navigate between competing power centers while advancing national interests. At the same time, India continues to cultivate robust partnerships through the Quad (with the U.S., Japan, and Australia) and its growing bilateral ties with Washington. In practice, this means India is simultaneously engaging with China-led institutions like the SCO while strengthening security and technological cooperation with the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific bloc. This dual-track strategy allows New Delhi to hedge against uncertainty on multiple fronts: it ensures access to Eurasian markets and energy corridors without sacrificing strategic alignment with Western partners. The Tianjin summit thus reflects a uniquely complex Indian strategy: neither confrontation nor unconditional alignment, but calculated engagement, ensuring that India remains both relevant and resilient as global power structures shift. By balancing its SCO participation with Quad commitments, India positions itself as a pivotal actor capable of bridging competing spheres of influence, maximizing strategic flexibility in an era defined by multipolar competition. The West on the Sidelines The Tianjin summit was a warning shot: the world is moving on, with or without the West. While Washington and Brussels continue to wield significant economic, military, and diplomatic power, their ability to unilaterally dictate global terms is steadily eroding. For decades, Western institutions such as the IMF, World Bank, NATO, and dollar-based financial systems served as the primary levers of influence, shaping trade, development, and security outcomes across the globe. Today, however, alternative frameworks like the SCO are demonstrating that other nations can pursue prosperity and security without relying solely on Western guidance. Across Eurasia, countries are increasingly prioritizing strategic autonomy over rigid alignment. They seek options that provide economic resilience, infrastructure development, and energy security without the political strings often attached to Western loans or alliances. From pipelines in Central Asia to digital connectivity projects extending China’s 5G standards, the SCO is offering practical alternatives that simultaneously advance regional integration and multipolar governance. The message is clear: the rules and institutions of the West are no longer the only game in town. Nations that fail to recognize this realignment risk being left behind not just economically, but politically and strategically. Participation in emerging trade corridors, digital networks, and financial mechanisms will increasingly define influence in Eurasia and beyond. Those who ignore these shifts may find their voice diminished in global decision-making and their access to vital markets and resources constrained. Moreover, the SCO’s rise signals a broader psychological shift. For decades, Western primacy framed global debates and set expectations of power projection. Tianjin revealed a growing willingness among Eurasian states to assert their own terms, challenge Western norms, and pursue partnerships that align with their strategic interests rather than defaulting to U.S. or European approval. The West can no longer assume that its preferences will automatically shape outcomes; influence must now be earned, negotiated, and, in some cases, competed for. In short, the Tianjin summit underscores a central truth of the emerging era: multipolarity is not a distant possibility as it is taking shape here and now. To remain relevant, Western policymakers must move beyond complacency and recognize that a world with the SCO at its center demands engagement on terms that are increasingly pluralistic, flexible, and contested. Ignoring this reality is not just shortsighted but a strategic liability. A Multipolar Future What unfolded in Tianjin was not the birth of a new Cold War but the emergence of something far more complex and consequential: a multipolar future in which the West is no longer the sole arbiter of global norms, trade, and security. This is not merely a shift in power; it is a transformation of the architecture of international relations. Multiple centers of influence such as Beijing, Moscow, New Delhi, and the capitals of Central Asia are actively shaping the rules, institutions, and economic flows that will define the 21st century. The West, powerful as it remains, is increasingly one participant among many rather than the default decision-maker. The unipolar era of American dominance, which followed the Cold War, had its run, dictating the terms of finance, trade, and security for decades. The Tianjin summit, however, signaled that the next chapter will be written differently. The SCO is not simply a forum for dialogue; it is a deliberate effort to institutionalize an alternative framework for regional and global governance, encompassing trade, energy, technology, and finance. From the expansion of the yuan in energy settlements to infrastructure corridors across Central Asia, the SCO is constructing the material and institutional foundations of a multipolar order that can operate independently of Western-led institutions. This new reality poses a strategic test for the West. Can Washington and Brussels adapt to a world in which their primacy is no longer assumed, and influence must be negotiated rather than imposed? Or will they risk being relegated to the sidelines, observing as new power centers define the economic rules, geopolitical alignments, and technological standards that will shape global affairs for decades to come? Crucially, multipolarity is not zero-sum since it does not necessarily mean confrontation, but it does demand recognition that influence, leverage, and legitimacy are now dispersed. States and institutions that cling to a unipolar mindset may find themselves increasingly marginalized, while those capable of engaging with multiple power centers, hedging risks, and participating in alternative frameworks will thrive. Tianjin was therefore more than a summit; it was a glimpse of the emerging world order in motion. The SCO, with its blend of economic initiatives, security coordination, and financial innovation, illustrates that the 21st century will be defined by complexity, interdependence, and competition among multiple poles of power. The central question now is whether the West will acknowledge and adapt to this new reality or allow others to shape the future on their own terms. Welcome to the Eurasia Century. pic.twitter.com/lcotVl0hZY September 3, 2025 Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 23:50
Israel Tells Hamas: Lay Down Arms, Free All Hostages - Or Gaza City Gets Leveled Israel has once again given Hamas a tough ultimatum - release all the hostages and surrender or prepared to see Gaza City leveled - according to a new Thursday Times of Israel headline. This came after Hamas declared its willingness to release all the hostages, based on a ceasefire proposal the group said it accepted two weeks ago. Hamas has said it will agree "to enter into a comprehensive deal in which all enemy prisoners held by the resistance will be freed in exchange for an agreed-upon number of Palestinian prisoners held by the occupation." AFP/Getty Images However, it made demands which Israel has consistently rejected - that all Israeli troops withdraw from the Gaza Strip, and that all border crossings be immediately opened for the arrival of aid. Hamas further said it is ready to form "an independent national administration of technocrats" to run Gaza. But the Netanyahu government has quickly shot back that all hostages must be freed at once, and the group must disarm, and agree that it will no longer govern. Israel has said it will not accept Palestinian Authority governance either. "This is more spin by Hamas, containing nothing new," Netanyahu’s office said. This means the Gaza City offensive will more than likely proceed and continue, given Hamas is not going to lay down its arms, which they will see as certain defeat, death or imprisonment. Netanyahu has called for "the establishment of an alternative civilian administration that does not indoctrinate for terror, does not dispatch terror, and does not threaten Israel." Meanwhile, even ahead of plans to take over the strip's largest city, Israeli's military had declared it controls about 40% of Gaza City. It has been declared a combat zone, with civilians ordered out - particularly areas designated highly dangerous "red zones". This week, Axios' global affairs correspondent Barak Ravid cited Israeli officials who say that the White House is ready to greenlight a Netanyahu-ordered seizure of West Bank Palestinian territory. "Rubio has signaled to Israeli officials in private meetings that he does not oppose Israel's West Bank annexations and that the Trump administration will not stand in the way," wrote Ravid. IDF footage purporting to show tunnels being detonated in the Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza City... Explosion of a Hamas terror tunnel located in the Zaytoun neighborhood of Gaza City. Big bada boom pic.twitter.com/xDzuimx3lr September 4, 2025 Still, Trump has cautioned that even though Israel may be winning the war, it is losing global opinion. Despite such statements, the White House hasn't done much to bring serious pressure to bear on Tel Aviv. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 23:15
Trump Tariffs Go From Terriying To Indispensable To Prevent A Bond Market Crash How long does it take for conventional wisdom to make a 180 degree U-turn? In the case of anything Trump related, it's just under 6 months. It was in early April, just after Liberation Day's reciprocal tariffs were announced, that US bond markets suddenly cratered, sparking a collapse in hundreds of billions of basis trades, and triggered fears of a global economic shock. That's when tariffs were widely seen as bad and anyone who dared to say it's never that black or white - such as this website - were blasted as economic illiterates. Well, fast forward to today when quietly conventional wisdom has been turned on its head and the mere possibility of tariffs getting pulled is now seen as one of the biggest threats to the stability of the bond market! That's right: if the Financial Times is to be believed - and it is, since it loathes Trump with a passion and would never say anything even remotely complementary if it could avoid it - Trump’s tariffs are now a key factor keeping Treasury investors on board (the same tariffs that were widely blamed for the relentless selling back in April). According to the paper, the tariff revenues - which so many of the establishment economists never even considered in April - are now seen as a crucial income stream that offsets the costs of the Big Beautiful Bill, and investors are now counting on hundreds of billions of dollars raised by the remaining tariffs to offset Trump’s tax cuts and keep a lid on US borrowing. “The only way I can see for the US government to reduce its outstanding debt in the near term is to use the tariff revenue,” said Andy Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, citing also revenues from chipmakers’ China sales. “If all of the sudden the tariff revenue will not be there, that is a problem.” Not only that, but as we noted two weeks ago, both S&P and Fitch recently conceded that tariff revenues for the US federal government were one factor that prevented them from downgrading the sovereign. The Congressional Budget Office last month forecast Trump’s tariffs would boost US government revenues by $4tn over the coming decade. That would help pay for tax cuts in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which is projected to increase borrowing by $4.1tn over the same period. The shift in market sentiment comes after months of turmoil in Trump’s economic strategy, including his trade war with trading partners such as China and his attacks on the US Federal Reserve. Thierry Wizman, a global rates strategist at Macquarie Group, said: “If the bulk of Trump’s tariff programme is nullified by the courts some analysts will cheer, inflation will subside, growth may improve, and the Fed may be more inclined to ease monetary policy. But if the focus is on debt and deficits at that time, the bond market may riot.” He added: “The risk that tariffs go away but the [One Big Beautiful Bill Act] stays may become the dominant risk for [US Treasuries] over the next few weeks.” Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at PGIM Fixed Income, said there was “a hope that tariff revenue can help control the budget deficit”. To be sure, even with tariff revenues, investors warn about the daunting scale of the US government’s borrowing needs. Des Lawrence, senior investment strategist at State Street Investment Management, said if the tariffs “were put on pause, it deprives Uncle Sam of a revenue source”. But the “bigger negative picture” is the sheer scale of government spending, he said. Without tariff revenue, the CBO expects US debt relative to GDP to surpass its second world war peak by 2029. “It’s helpful in plugging a gap, but there’s still a big issue in America spending much more than it’s receiving,” Lawrence said, and he too is right as we showed a few weeks ago when we demonstrated that despite record tariff revenue, the US budget deficit hit a whopping $291bn in July, the second highest deficit for the month on record. And now the fate of the US bond market is in the hands of a handful of supreme court justices, whose decisions are never taken on the merits of the underlying argument but are purely and unapologetically political. Last week, the Court of Appeals ruled against the Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that the emergency powers law did not give the US president the legal authority to impose these tariffs. And last evening, the Trump administration appealed this decision before the Supreme Court, and the enforcement of the earlier ruling has been delayed until the Supreme Court can review the case. So, pending the Supreme Court decision, tariffs remain in effect. But if Trump loses this appeal, that key source of revenue would quickly dry out. Undoubtedly the administration will already have alternatives up its sleeve –with sectoral tariffs a key candidate– but it would unleash a new wave of uncertainty that could sap confidence. No wonder Trump has said that if the Supreme Court does not overturn the Appeal court decision, the consequences would be catastrophic for the US: he is, after all, correct. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 22:20
DHS Terminates 2021 Temporary Protected Status For Venezuelans Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times, The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on Sept. 3 that it was revoking the 2021 designation of temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals in the United States. That status, which was previously set to expire on Sept. 10, will now be terminated 60 days after that date when the department publishes its notice to the Federal Register. The department indicated that it no longer believes Venezuelan nationals met the statutory requirements for temporary protected status. “Given Venezuela’s substantial role in driving irregular migration and the clear magnet effect created by Temporary Protected Status, maintaining or expanding TPS for Venezuelan nationals directly undermines the Trump Administration’s efforts to secure our southern border and manage migration effectively,” U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services spokesman Matthew Tragesser said in a statement. “Weighing public safety, national security, migration factors, immigration policy, economic considerations, and foreign policy, it’s clear that allowing Venezuelan nationals to remain temporarily in the United States is not in America’s best interest.” Temporary protected status (TPS) is a program that gives people from certain countries the ability to stay in the United States legally for a period of time. The head of the Department of Homeland Security creates the program if temporary and extraordinary conditions prevent the migrants from returning to their home countries safely. President Joe Biden, President Donald Trump’s predecessor, established two designations of temporary protected status for Venezuelan nationals residing in the United States. The first, which was unveiled in 2021, was affected by Wednesday’s revocation. The second, which Biden announced in 2023 and was set to expire in April before it was extended for 18 months, was terminated by the Trump administration earlier this year. At the time, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem determined that “it is contrary to the national interest to permit the covered Venezuelan nationals to remain temporarily in the United States.” Biden’s Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas had granted temporary protected status to roughly 348,202 Venezuelan nationals, deeming that there were “extraordinary and temporary conditions in Venezuela that prevent individuals from safely returning.” In May, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked a lower court’s order to prevent the Trump administration from removing the temporary legal protections for Venezuelans so that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit could weigh in on the issue. Then, the federal appeals court last week upheld the original order that stopped the administration from moving forward with the policy that would make it easier to deport Venezuelan nationals. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen, who issued the original order, said at the time that ending the program “for reasons of national security” was not backed by evidence. “Venezuelan TPS holders have lower rates of criminality than the general population,” he said. “Generalization of criminality to the Venezuelan TPS population as a whole is baseless and smacks of racism predicated on generalized false stereotypes.” On Wednesday, the Homeland Security Department said Noem had moved to end the 2021 designation of temporary protected status for Venezuelans because keeping the program “is contrary to the national interest.” “Venezuelan nationals leaving the United States are encouraged to use the U.S. Customs and Border Protection CBP Home app to report their departure from the United States and take advantage of a safe, secure way to self-deport that includes a complimentary plane ticket, a $1,000 exit bonus, and potential future opportunities for legal immigration,” the agency wrote in a news release. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 21:45
Trump Considers Leasing Parts Of Camp Pendleton To Fund Golden Dome The Pentagon is exploring the possibility of leasing sections of Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California to commercial customers, and potentially using the proceeds to bankroll President Trump's Golden Dome missile defense scheme, NBC News was first to report on Wednesday, citing a current DOD official, as well as a former one. Positioned between Los Angeles and San Diego, Camp Pendleton boasts more than 125,000 acres of land and 17 miles of Pacific coastline, with Interstate 5 conveniently traversing it near the coastline. The topography is diverse, ranging from the seafront to mountainous terrain. As you'd imagine, it's the largest undeveloped coastline expanse in all of Southern California. Marines conduct a vehicle egress drill at Camp Pendleton's Del Mar Boat Basin (1st Marine Division Photo - Cpl Anita Ramos) Navy Secretary John Phelan toured the base last week via helicopter, looking at various sections of the base that have been preliminarily identified as potential revenue-drivers, NBC's sources said. A Phelan spokeswoman confirmed that the trip included “initial conversations about possible commercial leasing opportunities by DoD. These opportunities are being evaluated to maximize value and taxpayer dollars while maintaining mission readiness and security. No decisions have been made and further discussions are needed,” said Lt. Cmdr. Courtney Williams. Many elements of the proposition are unclear, to include what type of usages are envisioned, how much land would be available, or how long any leases would be. As opposed to carving off one major section of Camp Pendleton, it's likely that multiple, separate tracts around the installation would be offered for lease, the officials told NBC. They emphasized that the conversion of parts of Camp Pendleton to commercial use would not diminish its military use or Marine Corps readiness. Among many other units, Camp Pendleton is the home of the 1 Marine Expeditionary Force, which the Corps touts as its "largest warfighting Marine Air-Ground Task Force." Ten of the installation's service members -- nine Marines and a sailor -- were among the 13 killed in the 2021 suicide bombing of the Kabul airport, amid the terribly-executed if long-overdue withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. It also has many military schools, including Assault Amphibian School. There are typically 70,000 people on the installation on any given day. Proceeds of the commercial leases may be directed to Trump's Golden Dome, his vision of an American missile defense shield inspired by Israel's Iron Dome -- but far exceeding it in both complexity and scale. The multi-faceted defense scheme would likely include ships, jets and surface-to-air components, with the potential for space-based interceptors as well. Trainees march on a dirt road at Camp Pendleton during the three-day Crucible event that is their last hurdle before earning the title of US Marine (Nelvin C. Cepeda / San Diego Union-Tribune) Last month, new details of Golden Dome began to emerge, based on a Reuters review of a U.S. government slide presentation on the project, titled "Go Fast, Think Big!", which was presented to 3,000 defense contractors. According to the slides, the Golden Dome's missile defense shield architecture calls for: Space layer: satellites for missile warning, tracking, and boost-phase interception. Upper layer: Next Generation Interceptors (NGI), THAAD, and Aegis systems — with a new missile field likely in the Midwest. Under layer: Patriot systems, new radars, and a common launcher for current and future interceptors. The Big Beautiful Bill signed into law on July 4 includes $25 billion to start developing Golden Dome, and the Trump administration claims the whole thing will cost $175 billion. Having watched the history of US weapons development, we'll take the over. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 21:20
Military Pursues AI Systems To Suppress Online Dissent Abroad Authored by José Niño via Headline USA, The U.S. military wants artificial intelligence to do what human propagandists cannot: create and spread influence campaigns at internet speed while systematically suppressing opposition voices abroad, according to internal Pentagon documents obtained by The Intercept. The classified wishlist reveals SOCOM’s ambition to deploy “agentic AI or multi-LLM agent systems” that can “influence foreign target audiences” and “suppress dissenting arguments” with minimal human oversight. The military branch seeks contractors who can provide automated systems that operate at unprecedented scale and speed. “The information environment moves too fast for military remembers [sic] to adequately engage and influence an audience on the internet,” the document said. “Having a program built to support our objectives can enable us to control narratives and influence audiences in real time.” As reported by The Intercept, the proposed AI systems would extend far beyond simple content generation. SOCOM envisions technology that can “scrape the information environment, analyze the situation and respond with messages that are in line with MISO objectives.” More controversially, the systems would “suppress dissenting arguments” and “access profiles, networks, and systems of individuals or groups that are attempting to counter or discredit our messages.” The Pentagon plans to use these capabilities for comprehensive social manipulation, creating “comprehensive models of entire societies to enable MISO planners to use these models to experiment or test various multiple scenarios.” The systems would generate targeted messaging designed to “influence that specific individual or group” based on gathered intelligence. SOCOM spokesperson Dan Lessard reportedly defended the initiative, declaring that “all AI-enabled capabilities are developed and employed under the Department of Defense’s Responsible AI framework, which ensures accountability and transparency by requiring human oversight and decision-making.” The Pentagon’s move comes as adversaries deploy similar technology. Chinese firm GoLaxy has developed AI systems that can “reshape and influence public opinion on behalf of the Chinese government,” according to recent reporting by The New York Times. The company has “undertaken influence campaigns in Hong Kong and Taiwan, and collected data on members of Congress and other influential Americans.” However, experts question whether AI-generated propaganda proves effective. Emerson Brooking of the Atlantic Council noted that “Russia has been using AI programs to automate its influence operations. The program is not very good.” He warned that “AI tends to make these campaigns stupider, not more effective.” The Pentagon has previously conducted covert influence operations with mixed results. In 2022, researchers exposed a network of social media accounts operated by U.S. Central Command that pushed anti-Russian and Iranian messaging but failed to gain traction, becoming what Brooking called “an embarrassment for the Pentagon.” Critics worry about the broader implications of automated propaganda systems. Heidy Khlaaf, former OpenAI safety engineer, cautioned that “framing the use of generative and agentic AI as merely a mitigation to adversaries’ use is a misrepresentation of this technology, as offensive and defensive uses are really two sides of the same coin.” Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 20:55
Illegal Alien Arrested With Arsenal Of Weapons, Ammunition, Cocaine The optics for the Democratic Party are not great at the moment. Whether it's vehemently rejecting President Trump's mission to restore law and order in crime-ridden progressive cities or opposing the deportation of criminal illegal aliens, the party of confused radicals - still unable to define what a woman is - bankrolled by rogue leftist billionaires and propped up by dark-money NGOs, has firmly branded itself as the party of "America Last." If Democrats had their way, no illegal alien would ever be deported. That's because these third-worlders are seen as the party's future voting base to seize more political power. For a glimpse into exactly who these individuals are, look no further than a shocking new report out of Charleston, South Carolina. Local outlet WCBD reported earlier this week that deputies with the Dorchester County Sheriff's Office pulled over Joaquin Lopez-Rubio for speeding. Deputies say Lopez-Rubio is in the country illegally, and what they found in his vehicle was shocking. Here's more from the local station: Lopez-Rubio was detained for reckless driving and operating a vehicle without a valid license. It was also determined that he was a "Mexican national in the United States illegally," according to the sheriff's office. During a search of Lopez-Rubio's vehicle, deputies and troopers found three clear plastic bags with 8.6 gross grams of cocaine, ten firearms, and multiple magazines with various rounds of ammunition. How does the illegal pick fruit on farms and clean dishes at restaurants with these tools? How does one pick fruit with these? https://t.co/5BPk3thrSk pic.twitter.com/NYgFP7PkUV September 3, 2025 Democrats are losing the plot. Related: 57% Of Americans Approve Deportation Of All Illegal Immigrants; CBS News Poll Admits Americans are waking up and fed up with the globalist regime in the previous administration that flooded the nation with millions of illegals. Now, some of these criminal illegals are heavily armed. Tyler Durden Thu, 09/04/2025 - 20:30