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64% Of Rwanda Politicians Are Women; Just 4% In Nigeria Data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union shows the extent to which differences in gender equality in parliament exist between countries, with only four nations currently representing an even or almost even 50:50 split of men to women in their lower house of parliament. These are Andorra, Mexico, Bolivia and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, as Statista's Anna Fleck details below, there are only three countries worldwide with a higher ratio of women to men. These are Rwanda (63.8 percent share of women), Cuba (55.7 percent) and Nicaragua (55.0 percent). You will find more infographics at Statista A look at selected countries shows that gender parity in parliaments is lagging behind in European nations as well as in the United States, where only around 29 percent of House members where women most recently. In Europe, Scandinavian nations lead, like Sweden at 45 percent, Finland at 45.5 percent and Iceland at 46 percent. Spain follows suit with 44.3 percent. Lowlights in Europe include Hungary at 15.2 percent, Bosnia and Herzegovina at 19.1 percent and Bulgaria at 21.3 percent. However, Germany is not far ahead at 32.4 percent. Globally, Nigeria was among the countries with the lowest female participation in parliament at 4.2 percent. Sri Lanka, Syria, Iran and Algeria all stayed below 10 percent. India reached 13.8 percent. The country is scheduled to up representation to 33 percent after its next census towards the end of the decade. Japan stood at a slightly improved 15.7 percent, but still towards the bottom of the ranking. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 05:45
Sweden Tells Citizens To Prepare For "War Mode" Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com, Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson said that NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) members should prepare their citizens for “war mode.” Jonson said that the possibility of a war with Russia is still on the table. Jonson told RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND), as reported by RT, in an interview published on Sunday. “To preserve peace, we must prepare ourselves both mentally and militarily for the possibility of war,” the official said. “A change in mentality is necessary: We must switch to war mode to resolutely deter, defend, and preserve the peace.” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson, Warsaw, Poland, April 3, 2025. © Foto Olimpik / NurPhoto via Getty Images Moscow has long viewed the Ukraine conflict as a NATO proxy war aimed at undermining Russia’s security following decades of expansion. Sweden is the bloc’s newest member, while Ukraine was 'promised' accession sometime in the future. RT reports that The European Commission last week unveiled a roadmap outlining its plans to expand joint arms procurement to at least 40% by 2027. The document emphasized the need to “invest more, invest together, and invest European,” citing global strategic shifts to other regions among “traditional allies.” The push for greater defense spending aligns with calls from US President Trump, who has demanded that European members buy more American weapons – including for Ukrainian use. Jonson justified such purchases, saying that Europe “simply doesn’t have or cannot yet produce” the necessary systems. “Ukraine needs these assets fast,” he said. “If Europe lacks them, it’s logical to procure them from the US.” Recently, several American officials told the Wall Street Journal, according to a report by Yahoo News that Trump is putting much more pressure on the Ukrainian ruler Volodymyr Zelensky than he is on Russia. Officials say that they have observed Trump’s “hesitation to push Putin, who has shown little interest in concessions needed for a deal.” One Wall Street Journal source noted that “the White House has put more pressure on Kiev than on Moscow.” Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 05:00
EU Energy Ministers Want To Finish Ditching Russian Gas In Two Years European Union energy ministers think they'll be able to phase out the import of Russian gas by 2028, and have backed a proposal that would begin the process by phasing out the contracts themselves for both pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) by Jan. 1, 2026. Gas pipelines at the Atamanskaya compressor station facility of Gazprom's Power Of Siberia project outside the far eastern town of Svobodny, in Amur region, Russia, on Nov. 29, 2019. Maxim Shemetov/Reuters Current agreements may continue until June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts may would be cut off on Jan. 1, 2028. That said, landlocked members states (Hungary, Slovakia) which have limited alternatives to Russia would be afforded some flexibility. If the proposed regulations are backed by the European Parliament, it would require member states to submit plans for how they will diversify their energy supplies if they're currently receiving (directly or indirectly) gas from Russia. Composed of national ministers from each member state, the Council of the EU said in a press release, "The same requirement to submit a national diversification plan will apply to those member states that are still importing Russian oil, with a view to discontinuing those imports by 1 January 2028." Danish minister for climate, energy and utilities, Lars Aagaard, said "An energy independent Europe is a stronger and more secure Europe. Although we have worked hard and pushed to get Russian gas and oil out of Europe in recent years, we are not there yet," adding that it's critical for Denmark - which currently holds the rotating presidency of the Council of the EU, secures "overwhelming support from Europe’s energy ministers for the legislation that will definitively ban Russian gas from coming into the EU." The Council presidency will begin negotiations with European Parliament (720 lawmakers) before agreeing on the final text of the regulations. In other words - two years will have come and gone by the time they're done talking... That said, Europe has already significantly cut back on Russian gas; Between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025, the EU-27 reduced Russian oil imports by more than 90 percent, cutting the share of Russian oil in total extra-EU imports from 29 percent to less than 2 percent. During the same period, Russia’s share of the EU’s natural gas imports dropped from 39 to 13 percent, driven mainly by a 52-percent reduction of natural gas imports in gaseous state. The value of liquefied natural gas imports from Russia actually almost tripled between Q1 2021 and Q2 2025 but still accounted for a smaller share of the EU’s total LNG imports in the most recent quarter. This is due to total LNG imports more than quadrupling during this period, as the EU replaced Russian pipeline gas with LNG from suppliers like the United States, Qatar and Norway. -Staista As the Epoch Times notes further, when it comes to Hungary and Slovakia: Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU has sought to reduce its dependence on energy from Russia. According to an explainer on the European Council’s website, “Russia’s share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from over 40 percent in 2021 to about 11 percent in 2024.” In 2024, Russia accounted for less than 19 percent of the EU’s imported gas and LNG combined. While much of Europe has moved away from Russian energy and Brussels has imposed extensive sanctions on most Russian oil imports, Slovakia and Hungary still receive Russian supplies via the Druzhba oil pipeline. Bratislava and Budapest maintain closer ties with Moscow than the rest of the bloc and have defended their continued purchase of Russian oil, saying alternatives are too expensive. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has repeatedly called for the EU to drop its plan to stop Russian energy from being imported, and his environment minister, Aniko Raisz, echoed those sentiments on Sept. 18. “I think you know our position. We are one of the few landlocked countries in the region. So, our position has always been guided by the energy security for Hungary,” Raisz told reporters in Brussels. “We know that we have important, important tasks ahead of us, but let’s not daydream.” Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico (R) signs a mutual memorandum of cooperation with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) in the Mirror Hall of the Slovak Governmental Office in Bratislava, Slovakia, on April 28, 2025. Zuzana Gogova/Getty Images Last month, Slovakia pushed back on U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for Europe to curb Russian oil imports. “We don’t have any other options which could be sustainable and also for the price to be reasonable,” Slovak Foreign Minister Juraj Blanar told Reuters during an interview on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 24. “It takes time to diversify this. So that’s why we are calling for some kind of empathy.” Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Sept. 24 that the country will not stop buying Russian oil. “We are a landlocked country,” Szijjarto told ATV television in an interview in New York City, where he was also attending the U.N. General Assembly. “It would be great if we had access to the sea; we could build an oil refinery or an LNG terminal on the coast and cover the entire world market. But that’s not the case.” Guy Birchall and Owen Evans contributed to this report. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 04:15
Victor Hanson: Who Or What Will Finally End Hamas? Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via AmericanGreatness.com, Hamas was born and exists to kill Jews, seek the destruction of Israel, and, to some extent, overthrow or subvert pro-Western Arab governments. Period. For those ends, it diverted billions of dollars from the people of Gaza to build a vast subterranean labyrinth of military headquarters and arsenals. It expropriated hospitals, mosques, and schools for use as tunnel entries and exits, using expendable civilian shields to protect its rich terrorist hierarchy. Hamas always counted on plenty of collateral damage to sway the Western left to become active enablers of its murderous causes—in a way, it is also stone silent on other “occupied land” and “refugees,” from the recent ethnic cleansing in Azerbaijan and Nigeria to the long-standing illegal occupations of Northern Cyprus and swaths of the Congo. Hamas was willing to execute its Palestinian Authority rivals, cancel all elections after its first and only victory, hold kangaroo death courts to murder dissidents, and steal hundreds of billions of dollars in Western and international relief. It has already violated the ceasefire, attacking and killing Israelis, and now claims it has “lost” the remains of Israeli hostages, whom it likely murdered (and thus does not want more physical evidence of their barbarity). Hamas will never give up power, despite the fact that its ruling elite is all but wiped out, thousands of its foot soldiers are dead, and it is now loathed by most nations of the Middle East. The subtext of every negotiation over the future of Gaza is that almost every Arab regime privately wants the U.S. or Israel to eliminate Hamas. It is likely more popular at American college campuses, or in Dearborn, Michigan, and New York City—than in the Middle East. Nonetheless, the remnants of Hamas are already in public view, in SS fashion, publicly executing any alleged critics or rivals. And it hopes to be reinvigorated by the recent release of 1,700 convicted terrorists, most with Hamas ties and many flush with cash for their past killing of Jews. Hamas’s current strategy? It hopes first to crush any internal Gaza opposition by liquidating critics, particularly oppositional clans and tribes, before mounting terrorist operations against Israel. It then expects that Iran and Hezbollah will similarly feign cooperation with moderate Arab regimes and the U.S. to “deescalate” and eventually seek “peace”—until the old ring of fire and its Iranian patronage are rebuilt, and once a Democrat administration in Washington returns. It counts on assistance from an insidious UN, expatriate Arabs and Muslims in the West, Western leftist groups, and suicidal Western governments. For now, Hamas will limit most of its killing to Gazans who complain about the mass death it brought to Gaza by its murderous rampage against Israelis on October 7, or small groups of Israeli peacekeepers. So, given that peace is impossible with Hamas in the negotiations, who or what is going to eradicate Hamas as it seeks to return to its accustomed killing and terrorism? If it is allowed power in Gaza, either solely or as part of a coalition, then the entire “peace process” is doomed. To grant it semi-legitimacy would be analogous to allowing the surviving Nazi apparat to participate in a postwar German democracy, or Tojo and his militarists to help rebuild Japan. There are three entities who bear the responsibility to end Hamas under the new peace accords: the moderate Arab regimes of the Gulf, Egypt, Jordan, and perhaps Turkey, along with the U.S. and Israel. All of them wish Hamas to vanish as much as they fear doing so themselves. So while it is far-fetched that the three forces would act in concert to finish off Hamas, it is incumbent upon them not to prevent any of the others from crushing Hamas at its first sign of regrouping to doom the peace. In practical terms, that reality likely means that Israel must finish off Hamas, with full U.S. support—and tacit Arab acquiescence. But key to the present ceasefire and possible peace is a comprehensive plan to anticipate Hamas’s return to terrorism. One, Hamas’s entire underground complex must be destroyed as a prerequisite for any rebuilding of Gaza. The tunnels should be blown up, collapsed, and filled with the rubble of the war Hamas precipitated. Two, before Hamas returns to its accustomed killing, it is also important that both Turkey and Qatar expel what’s left of its leadership. Qatar fears another Israeli strike on the Hamas terrorists residing in its territory. So it now seeks U.S. protection, given that all its enemies, neutrals, and friends are tired of its triple-dealing. The Trump administration is apparently offering Qatar a life raft with the status of a protectorate. But the Trump administration should first insist that the Qataris disown Hamas and bar the group from its borders. The same with Turkey, over which the Trump administration has some considerable leverage. Three, no Arab, Western, or UN aid money should be sent anywhere near Gaza without assurances that Hamas is barred from appropriating it. Four, anyone with Hamas ties, formal or informal, should be prohibited from entering the U.S. and the EU and their Western allies. Five, because Hamas has already been branded a terrorist organization for the past 28 years, U.S. campuses should finally be warned that student participation in pro-terrorist demonstrations championing Hamas would be equivalent to rapid expulsion. Businesses, NGOs, and fronts that empower Hamas should be warned that they will be debanked, fined, and prosecuted. In the West, Hamas should be further rebranded as a pariah no different from ISIS. Six, no sanctions should be lifted from Iran until the end of its nuclear program is verified, and it ceases all funding of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. The quickest way for the bankrupt theocracy to implode is to keep it under sanctions and embargoes while it shorts its own people in stealthy attempts to fund its terrorist tentacles—a suicidal trajectory that alone might lead the Iranian street or military to turn on the theocracy. The chief obstacle to Phase II of the ceasefire and hostage exchange is the elimination of Hamas. Otherwise, we are at a rare moment of opportunity in the Middle East, where the once unimaginable has become a reality. Iran, for now, is broke, defenseless, humiliated, and discredited. Russia has lost its Syrian client and any foothold in the Middle East, and is still trapped in its forever Ukraine War. China has bet on the wrong Middle East horse. Hezbollah is still shell-shocked and dismembered. The equally untrustworthy Palestinian Authority nevertheless sees an opportunity finally to turn on its rival Hamas. So there is a rare opportunity for the U.S., the Arabs, and Israel finally to forge a peace without the fear of foreign-funded, nihilist terrorism—but only the moment and solely if the last obstacle, the terrorists of October 7 who prompted the last two years of war and death, are finally disarmed, discredited, humiliated, and eliminated. * * * Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 03:30
Brazil Has The Worst Wealth Inequality In The World, Slovakia The Least This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, compares countries by wealth inequality in 2024 using the Gini coefficient, a standard measure where 0 represents perfect equality and 1 represents maximum inequality. The data for this graphic comes from the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025, which analyzes wealth levels and distribution across more than 50 markets. Where Inequality Is Highest Brazil, Russia, and South Africa top the list for wealth inequality, each posting Gini coefficients around the low 0.8s. These scores imply a highly concentrated distribution of assets relative to the rest of the population. Several energy-rich economies—such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia—also rank high, reflecting significant concentrations of financial and real assets among upper tiers of wealth holders. Country Gini Coefficient 2024 🇧🇷 Brazil 0.82 🇷🇺 Russia 0.82 🇿🇦 South Africa 0.81 🇦🇪 United Arab Emirates 0.81 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia 0.78 🇸🇪 Sweden 0.75 🇺🇸 United States 0.74 🇮🇳 India 0.74 🇹🇷 Türkiye 0.73 🇲🇽 Mexico 0.72 🇸🇬 Singapore 0.70 🇩🇪 Germany 0.68 🇨🇭 Switzerland 0.67 🇮🇱 Israel 0.66 🇳🇱 Netherlands 0.65 🇭🇰 Hong Kong SAR 0.63 🇨🇳 Mainland China 0.62 🇵🇹 Portugal 0.61 🇬🇷 Greece 0.60 🇹🇼 Taiwan 0.60 🇫🇷 France 0.59 🇬🇧 United Kingdom 0.58 🇰🇷 South Korea 0.57 🇵🇱 Poland 0.57 🇮🇹 Italy 0.57 🇪🇸 Spain 0.56 🇦🇺 Australia 0.55 🇱🇺 Luxembourg 0.55 🇯🇵 Japan 0.54 🇶🇦 Qatar 0.47 🇧🇪 Belgium 0.47 🇸🇰 Slovakia 0.38 Where Wealth Is Most Evenly Shared On the other end of the spectrum, Slovakia and Belgium post the lowest Gini readings in this dataset. These countries tend to combine robust social safety nets, relatively high savings among households, and policy frameworks that diffuse asset ownership more broadly. Global Context Since 2000 Globally, wealth equality has decreased slightly since 2000 (–0.4%). At the same time, UBS estimates that millionaire households account for nearly half of all personal wealth worldwide. If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Ranked: The Countries With the Most Millionaires on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist. Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 02:45
"If We Do Not Stop This, [Dutch] Society Will Explode..." Via Remix News, Dutch Minister of Asylum and Migration Policy and Minister of Foreign Affairs David van Weel says the continued influx of migrants will destroy the Netherlands. He also had some harsh words about the realities of globalization. Van Weel believes that the global situation is uncertain, and even countries like the Netherlands, which are theoretically ready for major changes, must be careful. “The assumption that globalization will protect us from conflict has proven wrong. We are witnessing economic blackmail and armed clashes. People are worried. We must learn from this and protect ourselves. And we are already doing so, including at the EU level,” he told news outlet Rzeczpospolita, as cited by Do Rzeczy. He then pointed directly at the EU mandate regarding migrants. “For too long we have accepted an excessive influx of immigrants. If we do not stop this, society will explode,” he stated. Emphasizing the social toll this has taken, van Weel highlighted the ongoing housing crisis in the Netherlands: “Today we have a very serious housing crisis. Houses are so expensive that immigrants have to stay in refugee centers. And at the same time, society does not want more such centers to be opened. And it is very negative that it is impossible to send back those who do not deserve asylum.” Nevertheless, van Weel, a member of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) party, ruled out any further cooperation with Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party (PVV). The Netherlands will be holding its next general election on Oct. 29, and the VVD politician is lamenting the stance of many voters across Europe. “In many, almost all European countries, the political scene is very polarized today. The extremes dominate. That’s the will of the voters. And yet, we have to govern the country.” The VVD previously entered a coalition with the PVV, which van Weel says Wilders violated. “We have to try to build bridges, try to reach an agreement with the extreme parties. We made such an attempt with the PVV. But Wilders didn’t keep his end of the bargain. He broke the agreement. And yet, even if his party is weakened, it remains the largest in the polls. But we will not enter into a coalition with him again,” he said. Notably, van Weel is employing a tactic used by many mainstream centrist parties, speaking about the issues of immigration without taking any concerted action against the issue. Wilders himself ended the coalition because the government was failing to take action on the issue of mass immigration. WIthout his party included in a future coalition, the issue is only expected to grow worse. Read more here... Tyler Durden Tue, 10/21/2025 - 02:00
What Are The Chances Of A Food Stamp Collapse In November? A classic saying among preparedness experts in the US is that America is capable of weathering many crises, but when the food stamps shut down all bets are off. In other words, when the free stuff army loses their handouts, that's when all hell breaks loose. The US government spends over $100 billion on SNAP programs every year; the largest single food welfare project in the world. It's difficult to predict what an end to SNAP might look like. One can assume the worst and be ready for a "Walking Dead" disaster in which angry mobs run rampant. Or, tensions might continue to simmer. Many people might be forced to simply get a job, and the welfare subset could decide to adapt. But they probably won't. Food banks offer short term relief, though, these programs can be easily overwhelmed in the event of a broad cancellation of EBT. In 2025 around 42 million people have tapped into federal SNAP benefits, which amounts to 12% of the population. More than enough people to create chaos should they be politically weaponized to do so. But what are the chances of food stamps actually being canceled? The longest federal shutdown in history occurred in 2018-2019. It lasted 35 days and food stamps continued to remain available through the duration of the political standoff. That said, around half of the staff of the USDA was on furlough which led to delays in new applications and renewals. A shutdown would have to run for a substantial length of time beyond the record for SNAP benefits to completely vanish, right? It really depends on Democrats. A number of economists are warning that the nation’s largest "anti-hunger program" has a contingency fund of about $6 billion, but November benefits are expected to total around $8 billion. The USDA’s shutdown plan noted that funding is available in the event of a lapse, but if the current conditions hold, SNAP would ostensibly run out of cash in early November. BREAKING: Letters are being sent out from the Department of Agriculture directing states to pause EBT and SNAP benefits beginning in November due to the Government shutdown The letter shows benefits will be paused 🚨 Democrats are about to cause millions to lose food assistance pic.twitter.com/AiqprI9jF9 October 16, 2025 At this time, the government shutdown has lasted 18 days, well below the record. However, conditions for an extended shutdown have never been so numerous and the nation is quickly heading into the holiday season when the effects will be keenly felt. The Trump Administration is facing a rabidly hostile Democratic Party with no intention of compromise. The Senate requires several of these Democrats to vote in favor of a funding package in order to secure a 60 member majority in tandem with Republicans, and this prospect is growing unlikely. Keep in mind, Democrats have voted against temporary funding measures seven times. The crux of the conflict is over ACA benefits - Democrats demand that Trump continue subsidized health care for millions of illegal immigrants, who qualify for ACA as long as they declared asylum during the Biden Administration. Trump and Republicans say no. Democrats have spun a narrative that Trump is seeking to end benefits for millions of American citizens, but the reality is that conservatives want non-citizens removed from the rolls. Betting website Polymarket places the odds of the shutdown stretching into the middle of November at 38%, up from 10% a week ago. Progressives have become even more unhinged than usual in the past year, making a diplomatic arrangement impossible. Democrat party leaders and the establishment media act as truth filters, keeping left leaning people in the dark. The world they see is astonishingly different from the world the rest of Americans see. Furthermore, Democrats may view a continuing shutdown as a useful crisis in their favor. They have been successful in the past in scapegoating conservatives as the cause of nearly every budget impasse, even when Democrats were the clear culprit. Dems may want the shutdown to drag on, hoping that they can blame any negative consequences on the White House. If Trump gives them an inch in negotiations, leftists will claim victory and paint the administration as weak. If Trump refuses to bend, they will paint him as a monster who made little babies starve. That is to say, the odds of a food stamp collapse may be far higher than Polymarket currently predicts. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 23:00
He Co-Founded Wikipedia, Now He Says The Site Needs A Radical Change Authored by Jan Jekielek and Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times, Wikipedia, a popular online encyclopedia millions of people treat as an authoritative source of information, is systemically biased against conservative, religious, and other points of view, according to the site’s co-founder, Larry Sanger. Larry Sanger, co-founder of Wikipedia and former philosophy professor, among stacks of reference books at a library in Columbus, Ohio, on March 26, 2007. Kiichiro Sato/AP Photo Sanger, 57, who now heads the Knowledge Standards Foundation, believes Wikipedia can be salvaged either by a renewed emphasis on free speech within the organization or by a grassroots campaign to make diverse viewpoints heard. Failing that, Sanger said, government intervention may be required to pierce the shell of anonymity that now protects Wikipedia’s editors from defamation lawsuits by public figures who believe the site portrays them unfairly. In an Oct. 9 interview with Jan Jekielek, host of EpochTV’s “American Thought Leaders,” Sanger discussed Wikipedia’s derailing and what could get the site back on track. Systemic Bias Wikipedia, launched in 2001, was co-opted by a globalist, academic, secular progressive worldview in the early 2000s, Sanger said. He added that the viewpoint monopoly accelerated following the 2016 U.S. presidential election, when many media outlets began to abandon the notion of impartiality. Though the site is overseen by the nonprofit Wikimedia Foundation, Wikipedia describes itself as a self-governing project and states “its policies and guidelines are intended to reflect the consensus of the community.” Sanger said that eventually, the site’s original neutrality rules, which he authored, were rewritten to instead forbid “false balance.” “Basically, it’s required now, even for the sake of neutrality, that they take a side when [they believe] one side is clearly wrong,” Sanger said. “Pretensions of objectivity are out the window.” One way this is enforced is through a color-coded rating system that favors or bans certain sources, Sanger said. “You simply may not cite as sources of Wikipedia articles anything that has been branded as right wing,” he said. “I don’t think that The Epoch Times, for example, is particularly right wing, but it is colored red on this list.” Information from some “green” sources is taken as fact and repeated without attribution, Sanger said. Sanger, who has long campaigned for a restoration of free speech and accountability on the platform, said many people continue to think of Wikipedia as neutral and accurate. “Even now, people are still sort of waking up to the reality that Wikipedia does, on many pages … act as essentially propaganda,” he said. As evidence, Sanger listed a host of public figures, including novelist Philip Roth, journalist John Seigenthaler Sr., and filmmaker Robby Starbuck, who complained to him that they were misrepresented on Wikipedia. In 2022, Wikipedia deleted its page on U.S. Senate candidate Kathy Barnette, a Republican, saying she was not a notable person. The page was later restored. Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Republican candidate Kathy Barnette speaks during a Republican leadership forum at Newtown Athletic Club in Newtown, Pa., on May 11, 2022. In 2022, Wikipedia deleted its page on Barnette, saying she was not a notable person. The page was later restored. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images The same year, editors deleted an entry for Hunter Biden’s investment company, Rosemont Seneca Partners, saying it was not notable. An editor said keeping the page online could turn it into “a magnet for conspiracy theories about Hunter Biden.” That editor didn’t elaborate or provide any evidence. Sanger likens the intellectual takeover of Wikipedia’s content to the “long march through the institutions,” a communist tactic of taking over a society by gaining control of essential institutions, including media, education, and government. “Wikipedia is one of the institutions that the left marched through,” Sanger said. Wikipedia did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment. Lack of Transparency, Accountability The way Wikipedia is organized creates a self-perpetuating cycle that Sanger described as an “irrational bureaucracy.” He said the application of Wikipedia’s editorial rules has become a way to enforce ideological conformity and that some rules need to be revived and others abolished. One problem is the platform’s policy of preferring secondary sources over primary or original sources. This is contrary to the approach of journalists and higher education institutions, who favor original sources, such as direct quotes from public figures, documents written by historical figures, and original research. Wikipedia, by contrast, favors sources that have already interpreted original sources, such as magazines and newspapers. “As a former academic, I find that to be absurd,” Sanger said. He recalled an incident in which Roth told Sanger he asked Wikipedia to correct its page mentioning the origin story of a character in his book “The Human Stain.” Though Roth told Wikipedia directly how he created the character, the site’s editors refused to update the page, preferring to rely on a speculative account published in The New York Times. Roth then wrote an article about the matter in The New Yorker, Sanger said, giving Wikipedia a secondary source for what the author had told them directly. “There’s something really ridiculous about that,” Sanger said. Novelist Philip Roth in 1967. Roth is among a list of public figures that Sanger mentioned who have complained to him that they have been misrepresented on Wikipedia. Bernard Gotfryd/Public Domain The anonymity of the majority of Wikipedia’s 62 most influential editors perpetuates the problem, Sanger said, noting it creates a situation in which no one is held responsible for the potential harm the site’s content may cause. “Eighty-five percent of them are anonymous. So you can’t sue them,” Sanger said. Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996 shields companies from lawsuits related to user-generated content, meaning the Wikimedia Foundation cannot be sued either. Ideas for Reform On his website, Sanger outlines a series of ideas for returning Wikipedia to its original stance on fairness and free speech. A handful of his ideas center on increasing transparency into site management, such as revealing who Wikipedia’s leaders are, allowing the public to rate articles, ending decision-making by consensus, and adopting a legislative process for determining editorial policy. Wikipedia’s current policies effectively make Wikipedia insular and ideologically exclusive, according to Sanger, who believes determining policies in an open forum could expose the site to other viewpoints. Sanger’s other suggestions focus on free speech, such as enabling competing articles on the same subject, abolishing source blacklists, reviving the original neutrality policy, and ending the indefinite blocking of some editors. Sanger also calls on the site to repeal the “ignore all rules” policy, which he created in Wikipedia’s early days. The rule was intended to encourage editors who were nervous about amending articles to simply focus on the task at hand. “That was since made into a rule that is used by insiders to exert control over the newbies. So it’s, again, entirely inverted,” Sanger said. A computer screen shows Larry Sanger’s website on Oct. 16, 2025. Sanger said the way Wikipedia is organized creates a self-perpetuating cycle that he described as an “irrational bureaucracy.” Oleksii Pydsosonnii/The Epoch Times How Change Could Arise More broadly, Sanger said change could come in one of three ways. First, the Wikimedia Foundation could voluntarily end the ideological monopoly. “Centrists and libertarians and Republicans and conservatives, religious people, religious Hindus and Jews and Christians, Falun Gong, they should all be able to participate,” Sanger said. Failing that, Sanger said a public campaign seeking fairness might move the site to change. “I’m going to set up a letter of protest,” Sanger said. “I’m going to try to circulate this to a lot of prominent people who have been wronged in various ways by Wikipedia.” He invites others to contact the Wikimedia Foundation directly to make their feelings known. As a last resort, Sanger said Congress could intervene by creating an exception to Section 230 that would enable a site to be taken down if it published defamatory material. A precedent exists, according to Sanger, who cited a 2018 law that created a similar exception for websites used to organize human trafficking. “Even if the people who run the website aren’t doing the human trafficking, if it’s being organized on the website, they can still be sued,” Sanger said. “Wikipedia really does need some reform,” Sanger said. Though he’s hopeful the site may adopt his proposals, he acknowledged it may not happen. “They might find ways that are more palatable to them,” he added. “[If so,] I’d be all in favor of that.” Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 22:35
For The First Time, More Schoolchildren Worldwide Are Obese Than Underweight For the first time ever, more children and adolescents aged 5 to 19 worldwide are obese than underweight. As Statista's Calentina Fourreau details below, according to UNICEF, around 188 million schoolchildren and adolescents worldwide are obese, while only around 180 million are underweight. In total, more than 420 million children of all ages are overweight. At the same time, an estimated 370 million children globally are underweight, almost half of them under the age of five and suffering from stunting or wasting due to food shortages and poor nutrition. You will find more infographics at Statista This year's UNICEF report on child nutrition sheds light on the reasons behind this long-standing reversal. According to the report, ultra-processed, sugary and energy-dense food has been replacing fruits, vegetables and protein in children's diets, leading to potentially long-lasting health issues. The UN sees this as directly linked to aggressive marketing by food companies, which, according to the report, countries around the world should counter with legislative changes, clear labelling, as well as targeted taxes. In countries in the Global South in particular, growing prosperity has been accompanied for years by an increase in the consumption of unhealthy foods and thus the spread of obesity. In the 5- to 9-year-old age group, there have been more obese than severely underweight children since 2019. This change is predicted for older children and adolescents in 2028 and 2029, respectively. While 60 per cent of adolescents between the ages of 15 and 19 worldwide consume more than one sweet drink or food item per day, the proportion in Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and East Asia already exceeds this average. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 22:10
Who's Most Affected By Federal Cuts To DEI And EBT The inherent threat of socialist programs rests in the fact that they can be used by a political party or a politician as a means to bribe voters from certain demographics to support destructive policies in exchange for handouts. The Democratic Party understood this well when they introduced "The Great Society" welfare programs under President Lyndon B Johnson in the 1960s. The idea? Primarily to secure the votes of minorities and people under the poverty line in the US for the Democrats for generations by offering taxpayer funded subsidies that would eventually make these groups dependent on the government for their very survival. Specifically, the welfare system lured in black women and single mothers, offering increasing incentives per child as long as there was no father in the picture. This encouraged black women to have multiple children out of wedlock and increased their divorce rate from 17% in 1960 to 48% in 2024. Single mother households in the black community skyrocketed from 20% in 1960 to 65% in 2024. Compare this to the white community in the US, which has an 18% single mother rate. Economist Thomas Sowell cites the Great Society programs and endless welfare as more destructive to black Americans than any other factor in US history, including the legacy of slavery that progressive activists often rant about. In the past decade, welfare privilege took a backseat to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) efforts. Black women received overwhelming special treatment in college admissions (until 2023 when the Supreme Court stepped in) as well as job applications. Schools and corporations were given access to government subsidies in exchange for increasing their minority quotas. DEI also gave black women preferential access to the jobs market through a multitude of subsidies offered to corporations. These included tax cuts through the Work Opportunity Tax Credit and Affirmative Action. Government programs, largely created by Democrats, funded a 103% jump in black female employment in white collar jobs from 2010 to 2024. The problem is, many of these women did not get those jobs based on ability, they got those jobs simply because of racial identity. What happens when the government stops pumping cash into special privileges? The result is a mass exodus of DEI workers because they no longer have any value for the companies that hired them. It's a catastrophe for women that relied on handouts for so long. When Uncle Sam is no longer your sugar daddy, what do you do? Over 300,000 black women have reportedly lost their jobs since February and the ending of DEI initiatives is cited as the most likely cause. The black female unemployment rate has spiked to nearly 7%. Black women (and single mothers in general) have also been hit hardest by cuts to SNAP benefits (EBT). The percentage of black households on SNAP benefits in 2024 was around 25% (compared to 8% of white households). Approximately 1.3 million of these families are slated to lose benefits this quarter. Many more will lose benefits if the government shutdown continues into November and the programs run out of money. The change has caused a panic among recipients who complain that they are required to apply for or hold a job in order to get the benefits back. Critics of DEI argue that the disruption of subsidies is a reckoning for black women and single mothers after at least 15 years of life on easy mode. Democrats argue that DEI is similar to "reparations"; a transfer of wealth to make up for slavery and segregation. Regardless of the supposed effects of historic "inequality", a society cannot function based on "fairness", because fairness is largely subjective. Only merit keeps the world running smoothly, and it would appear that the black female community is learning quickly that merit matters far more than skin color. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 21:20
Japan Eyes Letting Banks Hold And Trade Bitcoin As Crypto Adoption Grows Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is reportedly considering reforms that would allow domestic banks to acquire and hold digital assets, including Bitcoin, for investment purposes. This would be a drastic move away from the conservative stance established in 2020, when local banks were barred from holding crypto due to concerns over volatility and financial stability. Under the proposed framework, banks could trade digital assets similarly to stocks and government bonds, with specific safeguards designed to ensure their financial soundness. The FSA plans to develop risk management protocols to mitigate the potential impact of sudden price swings on banks’ balance sheets. The reforms are expected to be discussed soon at a working group meeting of the Financial System Council, an advisory body to the Prime Minister. Officials are reportedly examining mechanisms that would allow banking groups to register as licensed cryptocurrency exchange operators. Back in 2020, Japan enforced strict crypto rules through amendments to the Payment Services Act (PSA) and the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA). These laws established a comprehensive framework governing crypto asset service providers, custodial businesses, and derivatives trading. Japan as a safe crypto environment By involving established banks, regulators hope to create a safer environment for crypto investment while expanding access to digital assets across Japan. The timing of the proposed reforms comes as Japan faces significant economic challenges. The country carries a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 240%, among the highest in the world, which has prompted policymakers to explore tools to manage financial pressures, including low interest rates and targeted regulation. In this context, digital assets may offer investors alternative avenues for returns outside traditional financial systems, potentially boosting adoption. Japan’s crypto market has grown rapidly in recent years. As of February 2025, over 12 million cryptocurrency accounts were registered in the country, representing a roughly 3.5-fold increase from five years prior. Major Japanese banks have already signaled their interest in expanding crypto services. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., and Mizuho Bank have collaborated to issue stablecoins pegged to both the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar. A great example of Japan’s booming crypto market comes from Metaplanet. Metaplanet has acquired and held Bitcoin as a treasury reserve while launching Bitcoin-backed financial products to generate income in Japan’s low-yield market. The company raises capital through equity and preferred shares, similar to Strategy, to fund its Bitcoin purchases. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 20:55
One Third Of Americans Have More Credit Card Debt Than Savings One in three Americans now have more credit card debt than emergency savings, according to the latest survey by financial services company Bankrate. As Statista's Anna Flecks shows in the chart below, this is up ten percentage points from 2011, when the company first started polling the question. Meanwhile, around 53 percent of respondents said that their savings were currently exceeding their credit card debt. This is down two percentage points from the same time last year, but slightly up from 2011. Around one in ten Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck in 2025, not making any debt or saving up money. You will find more infographics at Statista Millennials were the most likely to say that they had tapped into their emergency savings over the past 12 months. The most common uses for emergency savings among all groups were unplanned emergency expenses, such as car repairs or medical bills, followed by monthly bills, including rent and mortgages, followed by day-to-day expenses such as food. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 20:30
New Generation Of Industries Emerges In Texas As Rare Earths Race Ignites Authored by Dylan Baddour via Inside Climate News (emphasis ours), Major oil companies are drilling in East Texas again, but not for oil. This time, they're after lithium for batteries and other rare elements. Chevron and Halliburton announced East Texas projects this summer. Exxon has acreage across the border in Arkansas. Smackover Lithium, a joint venture of a Norwegian oil giant and a Canadian miner, announced in late September the discovery of the most lithium-rich fluids ever reported in North America, measured deep beneath its Texas claims in a massive brine deposit called the Smackover Formation. "It's ripe for development," said Jamie Liang, a former Wall Street banker and founder of Houston-based lithium startup TerraVolta, which is developing a lithium refinery on the Smackover with federal support. "There's tremendous growth potential." Lithium mining is one of several mineral industries emerging in Texas as part of broad federal efforts to urgently establish American production of the materials required for advanced manufacturing, from batteries and solar cells to wind turbines, microchips and cruise missiles. Competition with China looms over this effort. For much of this year, the world's two largest economies have been locked in trade tensions— and much of the ire is linked to minerals used in technology. This month, China announced new export controls on critical mineral products, including lithium battery components. President Trump, in social media posts, described China as "very hostile" and threatened to impose export controls on critical software and add 100 percent tariffs to Chinese imports. Near Texarkana, the chase for lithium is backed with robust federal support. Liang's TerraVolta received $225 million from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2024 for its lithium refinery complex. This year the project was selected for fast-tracked permit review. It will pump up the naturally metallic super-salty fluids from the Smackover, extract lithium and other minerals and then inject the leftover liquids back underground. At least two other lithium refineries are planned in the area and companies have leased tens of thousands of acres for drilling. More will likely follow as long as lithium prices stay strong. "There's going to be a very large-scale infrastructure buildout," Liang said. "You're going to be drilling wells. You're going to need those service companies. You'll need pipelines." Elsewhere in Texas, a mine is planned near El Paso for the rare metals used in magnets for electric motors. On the rural Gulf Coast, the Department of Defense has invested almost $300 million in a project that would process rare metals like samarium, used in jet engines, guided munitions and stealth technology. From Houston's petrochemical complex to the Permian Basin, a flurry of startups, oil majors and mining giants intend to recover minerals from industrial waste like coal ash, discarded electronics, mine tailings and oilfield wastewater in hopes of accelerating U.S. mineral supplies. Presently, the United States produces a dribble of the raw materials. China broadly owns the global production lines, following decades of investment and securing a dominance that has raised national security concerns as well as financial risk. The United States has just one operating lithium mine, in Nevada, where a second mine with government backing expects to begin production in 2027. Only one lithium refinery operates in the country, on the Gulf Coast of Texas. "Our exposure to China is unacceptable," said Douglas Wicks, a former program director at the Advanced Research Projects Agency of the Energy Department. It raises threats that the outbreak of conflict could leave the United States cut off from essential supply chains. That's the biggest reason why federal agencies are pushing so hard to play catch-up and boost American mining, Wicks said. As geopolitical tensions squeeze the flow of globalized commerce, Washington hopes to challenge Beijing's monopolies in a battle of extraction. "I think American industry can outproduce them," said Wicks, who retired this year. The United States has "the deposits to do this." However, the United States has to contend with China's gargantuan economy where the state owns key industries and provides subsidies, preferential finance schemes and other market support. Still, Wicks said, the United States knows how to move quickly. Just consider the recent evolution of American oil and gas. Technical innovations and loosened environmental standards in the shale revolution turned the United States from the world's largest importers of oil and gas to a major exporter in barely over a decade. Wicks believes the United States can transform again. In 2023, under the Biden administration, the Pentagon was ordered to establish mineral supply chains independent of China. Since then, billions of dollars have flowed to mining and processing projects across the country, spurring a rush of prospectors and entrepreneurs hoping to cash in on federal grants. Wisk said, "Now there's a big push in Texas to ask: 'Is there something else under the ground other than oil and gas?" Tiny Concentrations, Big Mines In the desert of far-west Texas, a company called Texas Mineral Resources Corp. (TMRC) had plans to dig for rare earth elements at a 950-acre Round Top Mountain site. The company won its first Defense Department contract in 2015. In January it reported a "breakthrough," producing a sample of high-purity dysprosium, which is used in semiconductors and electric vehicle motors. . These rare elements aren't actually hard to find. They're all over the world, but they exist in tiny concentrations that require a tremendous amount of effort to extract in significant volumes. The process also generates large waste streams. TMRC had said it would crush up 20,000 tons of rock a day. The material then would soak for a month in pools of diluted acid and undergo a series of electromagnetic processes to separate and cull the much-desired minerals. According to TMRC, the rocks hold 15 rare earth elements and other metals including lithium, gallium, hafnium, zirconium and beryllium. Some processed byproducts "are expected to show hazardous waste characteristics," and "the waste may contain naturally occurring radioactive material," according to a 2019 economic assessment by TMRC. It noted "potential impacts to water quality resulting from mine operations and the storage of mine waste." The operations are located in Hudspeth County, home to about 3,400 people, according to the latest census. However, financial analysts have warned about TMRC's viability, amid reports of a growing deficit and lack of revenue. In July, according to analyst reports, TMRC had a "severe liquidity crisis." The Round Top site is not an anomaly and, as TMRC struggles, other miners could step in, according to Brent Elliot, a geologist with the Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin, the state's official geological survey. There are "many Round Top-like igneous rocks in west Texas to explore," he said, noting that a recent survey of the area "has shown some hot targets that I'll go out and investigate." Holiday O'Bryan, a 22-year-old PhD student at the University of Texas, plans a career in mining. At a recent conference in Austin on mineral industries, she pointed out that most mining related to new technologies occurs in faraway countries, which often have lower environmental standards and enforcement. America's surging investment in extraction should be seen in context of the clean innovations it will support. Mining operations will change the landscape—particularly as the Trump administration cuts backs on regulations of federal land—and no one should be surprised by the compromises that the race for rare earths will demand, she said. "You have to have extraction for these technologies to work," she said. "In the age of the green energy transition that doesn't fly very well for someone who is trying to protect the environment." U.S. Mining Losses Before 1990 the United States dominated the world's mineral markets. But domestic production dropped that decade, in part, because of rising environmental protections at home and enticing low-cost foreign production possibilities. New industries and products emerging in the mid-2010s—smartphones and Tesla cars among them—prompted a re-think of the American economy and future needs. Mining had become a lost opportunity. "People started looking at what you actually need to be able to build things like electric vehicles," said Michelle Michot Foss, fellow in energy, minerals and materials at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. "We started realizing, oh my gosh, we don't produce any of this stuff." In recent years, it became clear that China had invested in and developed a strategic market, she said. The first Trump administration, within its first year, assessed mineral production as a national security matter. A federal mandate was laid out in a 2017 Trump executive order, "A Federal Strategy To Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals." In 2018, 35 minerals were designated "critical" for vulnerable supply chains and essential economic functions. Federal funding for mineral industries expanded at pace during the Biden administration. The 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act injected billions of dollars into projects around the country. Notably, the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act ordered the military to remove and replace Chinese-processed minerals from its processes within four years, sparking a race to rebuild complex supply chains. Amid escalating trade tensions in 2024, China banned exports of several key minerals to the United States. The second Trump Administration so far has allocated billions more dollars toward mineral industries, opened federal lands to mining exploration, ordered expedited permitting for certain projects and imposed tariffs on imports from more than 90 countries. China responded with export controls on 17 minerals used in military manufacturing. The Modern War Institute at West Point military academy has called that, "a shot across the bow of the U.S. defense industrial base." Can America fill the gap? It won't be easy, said Foss of Rice University. As the U.S. mining sector faded, so did its talent, expertise and a workforce pipeline. "Nobody knows anything about this," Foss said. "Not even in the agencies themselves are there good metallurgists anymore… except for down in the bowels of USGS." The United States will have to develop more than mines to secure a position in global mineral markets. It needs midstream and downstream industries to process extractions—or the raw material will have to be shipped to China, which has a proficient processing capacity. Rare earth elements are critical components of the advanced magnets used in electrical motors and generators. For every megawatt of generating capacity, a wind turbine requires 180 kilograms of neodymium, 17 kg of dysprosium and 7 kg of terbium, according to a 2023 report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory at the Energy Department. Notably, the first large-scale lithium refinery in the United States is owned by Tesla, the electric car manufacturer, and located near Corpus Christi, Texas. Launched in December, Tesla's plant imports ore from Canada's only lithium mine for processing into battery-grade material. It will eventually use eight million gallons of water per day. That might be difficult given the water shortages there. About 70 miles north of Tesla's refinery, another rare earths processing plant, a joint project between an Australian miner, Lynas, and the Defense Department, is also planned. The Defense Department has invested $288 million since 2021 into Lynas Rare Earths Limited's plans for a processor near the tiny town of Seadrift, on the shore of San Antonio Bay. If completed, the mining company would oversee the country's first processor for elements such as samarium, used in ultra-high-temperature magnets for spacecraft, satellites, missile guidance systems, stealth aircraft and electronic warfare technologies. But there's a hitch, again, tied to water issues. Lynas aims to discharge wastewater through an existing treatment system at a nearby Dow Chemical plant, according to a draft environmental impact statement dated November 2023. That same month, Texas' environmental regulators issued a draft wastewater permit amendment for Dow, which would increase daily discharge limits at one of its outfalls from 17 million to 42 million gallons. The draft permit amendment did not mention Lynas or the reason for the sudden rise in daily discharges.. Diane Wilson, a 78-year-old environmental activist in Seadrift who has battled Dow for decades, filed a challenge to the permit amendment, questioning Dow's need. Dow's existing permit allows for about 80 harmful chemicals and metals in the wastewater. To her surprise, Dow withdrew its application in February this year, shortly after state regulators recommended hearing Wilson's request. "They obviously did not want us going to a hearing," Wilson said about Dow and the mining company. "There is a real secret element here." Two months later, Lynas announced its project faced rising costs due to "wastewater challenges," according to industry news reports. In August, its annual results statement noted "there is significant uncertainty as to whether the construction of the heavy rare earth processing facility at Seadrift, Texas will proceed and, if so, in what form." That's when Wilson said she surmised the Lynas mining project was behind the permit request. Lynas and Dow did not respond to a request for comment. Minerals from Waste In the heart of Houston's industrial complex, another Australian company, Metallium, announced in August that it had leased a fully permitted site for a first-of-a-kind facility to recover minerals from industrial and electronic waste. Many critical minerals mined or refined in China ultimately end up in American landfills as discarded consumer electronics. Metallium aims to use flash heating technology developed at Rice University to haul in the abandoned material and extract an array of elements. The facility plans operations in 2026. Other companies are exploring extraction of critical minerals from old industrial waste including coal ash, mine tailing and the red mud residues buried over decades at alumina processing sites along the coast. One pilot project in San Antonio is extracting the mineral graphite from methane gas. A small landscape of startups has also cropped up around the tremendous volumes of mineral-rich–and toxic–wastewater that comes up from oil wells. "We can basically turn an oil well into a mini-mine," said Jesse Evans, co-founder of a San Antonio-based startup, Maverick Metals. This year, Maverick began producing a proprietary chemical that is pumped at high pressure into new oil wells during fracking to dissolve metal-bearing rocks that rise to the surface in the brown frothy brine known as "produced water." Maverick has processes, equipment and chemicals to extract metals from that wastewater. Most startups in this space focus on lithium, Evans said. But oilfield wastewater also contains trace amounts of other metals like platinum, palladium and gold that are profitable business, he said. "What makes the lithium space really difficult is competing with China," he said. Some Chinese companies are vertically integrated from mine to factory, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, the world's largest battery manufacturer. Chinese companies also face looser environmental restrictions, lower labor costs and little media scrutiny. Critically, China's state-run economy can swiftly orchestrate production surges to lower prices and crush competition—and its state-backed companies can operate at a loss for months if not years. "We play by the rules of capitalism but a different set of rules applies to them," said Marek Locmelis, an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin who organizes an annual conference on critical minerals. Lithium Hopes Beyond the need for vast water supplies, the lithium pursuit also faces environmental and technical challenges. In Texas, the methods that companies plan to mine lithium haven't yet been used commercially at scale anywhere in the world. While traditional hardrock mines require stone crushing and grinding, the Smackover Formation contains a metal-rich brine that allows for quicker extraction. "If you extract directly from a brine you basically skip the mineral processing step that is energy intensive," Locmelis said. Existing lithium brine operations—including Silver Peak in Nevada, the country's only operating lithium mine—let fluids evaporate in ponds over 18 months to concentrate the minerals. But projects in Texas plan to use new methods that extract metals in several days. These methods require much less freshwater than hardrock or evaporation mines but will still draw significant volumes from shallow aquifers. While water in East Texas may seem abundant, the area affected by lithium production lacks groundwater conservation districts to manage or track withdrawals, said Vanessa Puig-Williams, Texas water program director at the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund. "There is no entity that is managing the production of the fresh groundwater," she said. "That's worrisome because there is no oversight." One Austin-based lithium startup, EnergyX, plans to use a process of "proprietary lithium-selective adsorbents, membranes, and extractants" which "enables faster, cleaner, and cost-efficient lithium extraction," said founder Teague Egan. The process uses about 6,600 gallons of freshwater per ton of lithium produced, Egan said, just a fraction of traditional evaporation methods. In September, EnergyX announced a site in Texarkana for its demonstration plant, which it plans to operate early next year. The company, backed by automaker General Motors, owns 330 adjacent acres where it plans a commercial-scale refinery. Four units would come online by 2030 to achieve 50,000 tons per year of production. "Texas—and specifically the Smackover Region—is quickly emerging as one of the central hubs for the U.S. lithium sector," Egan said. "In 10 years, we believe the Smackover Region will be the largest source of domestically produced lithium." His vision hinges on high hopes for strong lithium prices although there is some uncertainty about that. A trade war with China could crush the American sector. Technical advancements are making smaller batteries with less lithium and could dampen demand. Rapid evolution of recycling technologies could also reduce the need for lithium production. Scientists are developing new designs for energy storage that could eventually see lithium batteries join CD players and USB sticks in the land of obsolescence. Egan is not dissuaded. He is betting on Northeast Texas "evolving into a full-fledged lithium hub, with upstream brine production integrated directly into downstream refining." "The region has the potential to become a global benchmark," he said. "Just as the oil and gas industry shaped the region's past, lithium can help define its future." Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 20:05
Forget Harvard & Stanford, The University Of Chicago Has The Highest Tuition Costs Among Elite US Colleges The cost of attending America’s most prestigious universities continues to soar. For the 2024–25 academic year, the total annual cost of the top 10 national universities now ranges from $77,500 to $98,300, according to data compiled from U.S. News & World Report and College Board. In the graphic below, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti compares tuition costs for the top 10 U.S. universities with national averages for both private and public four-year colleges. Elite Education Comes at a Premium The University of Chicago tops the list, with tuition reaching $71,300. Other elite schools like Duke, Yale, and Stanford also hover near the $70,000 mark. Even Harvard, despite having one of the largest endowments in the world, lists tuition at $59,300. The Gap Between Elite and Average Colleges Tuition at the top 10 U.S. universities ranges from $59,000 to $71,000 per year, averaging about 50% higher than the $43,400 charged by the typical private nonprofit four-year college. By comparison, public out-of-state universities average around $29,200, while in-state students pay just $11,600. In fact, the average college tuition costs have climbed a remarkable 748% since 1963, after adjusting for inflation. This steady rise reflects expanding facilities, faculty salaries, and student services, but it also deepens accessibility challenges. Fleeing Tuition Hikes Facing soaring tuition costs, more American students are looking overseas for affordable alternatives. According to the Institute of International Education’s Open Doors report, the number of Americans earning degrees abroad rose from about 50,000 in 2019 to over 90,000 in 2024. If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Extra Earnings of a Bachelor’s Degree by State on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 19:40
The Crisis And Revolution Hidden In Plain Sight Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, While we focus on AI and finance, society is crumbling beneath our feet. According to both the mainstream media and social media, the forces that will shape the future are: 1) AI (i.e. technology's impact on jobs and growth), 2) geopolitical competition for AI dominance, energy, resources, trade, military and financial power, 3) finance, which includes cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), federal deficits, hyperinflation / currency devaluation and precious metals --all of which boil down to "what can I do to ensure that my wealth will remain intact whatever happens." The key issues are technology, finance and market forces--the core drivers of the global economy. Society isn't on the menu other than as a quickly dismissed source of dutiful hand-wringing. While all these will be influential, no one seems to see the domestic crisis hidden in plain sight or the revolution it makes inevitable. In my analysis, these will be the dominant forces shaping the coming decade. As I have documented in recent posts-- If We Measured the Economy by Quality-of-Life Instead of GDP, We'd Be In a Depression, For Many, This Recession Will Feel Like a Depression and Crunch Time for Cities, Counties and States--the system has reached its limits and is coming apart. What is the crisis? There are three self-reinforcing dynamics in play. The first is the imbalance of the economy and society: The economy now dominates society, and historically this leads to disorder. Everyone looking at technology and finance as the solutions has it backwards: technology and finance are the problems, not the solutions, as they are the primary drivers of the imbalance between society and the economy. As I explain in my new book's Introduction (free), society and the market forces that drive the economy have different timelines, tasks and priorities. Market forces are focused on expanding new markets, heedless of consequences beyond profit and market share; the future consequences fall on society, which must take the long view and absorb the impacts on the workforce, social stability and the nation's commons, i.e. the environment. The second is that inequality--of wealth, income, opportunity and power--has reached extremes that can be visualized as a pendulum: pushed to an extreme, the pendulum will swing to the opposite extreme. It's not just inequality that's reached an extreme--so has exploitation, artifice and moral decay. The average income of the bottom 60% households is $38,000 annually, while to qualify as a top 10% household requires about $250,000 annually. As I have documented here, insecurity can't be measured solely by income--the other dynamic is precarity: the income of many households is variable, and unexpected expenses such as auto repairs or health emergencies (both of which have reached insane heights) can throw the household into a financial hole. Those ignoring society to focus on the economy assume the bottom 60% of Americans--200 million people, 80 million households who own so little of the nation's financial wealth that their share is a rounding error--will just uncomplainingly accept their accelerating impoverishment as prices for essential soar and wages don't keep pace. The problem with this assumption is this cohort is making too little money (even with increases in minimum wages) to afford the essentials of shelter, food, healthcare, childcare and transport. Inflation is not dead; it's already changed the landscape permanently. Lower-cost alternatives have dried up: even old cars and apartments in seedy neighborhoods cost a fortune now. Those between the bottom 60% and the top 10%--the 30% who self-identify as "middle class"-- may feel immune to precarity, but much of their financial stability rests on sands that will collapse in a recession / asset-bubble pop. Their financial stability is fragile because it now rests on three fragile economic structures: 1) credit-asset bubbles that have increased "wealth" without increasing use-value; 2) the transfer of risk from corporations and the government to households, 3) the "trickledown economy" where the wealthiest 10% now collect virtually all the non-wage income from income-producing assets and account for 50% of all spending--wealth and income that's supposed to "trickle down" to the bottom 90%. Once the asset bubbles pop and even the top 10% start experiencing job losses and declining income, the layoffs in the bottom 90% will cascade as spending dries up and stock portfolios and home values return to Earth. Only those 62 and older were in the workforce in a "real recession," i.e. one that can't be reversed by the Federal Reserve lowering short-term interest rates and the federal government borrowing and spending more to "spend our way out of recession." The last real recession was 43 years ago, 1981-82. There is also a demographic dynamic in play globally: Gen Z is no longer accepting that massive inequality between generations is "the way it has to be." The second dynamic is the buffers that enabled people to hang on through recessions have all thinned: where debt was a modest percentage of GDP in the 1970s and 1980s recessions, now it's at historic highs. Households have already tapped credit cards and so borrowing more money to get by is not an option. So when push comes to shove--when hours are cut or a job is lost--the only choice is what not to pay: student loan, car payment, rent, as food and utilities take precedence. The buffers are already thinned and we haven't even slipped into recession yet. The third dynamic is the least recognized: the moral decay that has pushed exploitation, profiteering and artifice to extremes, undermining the foundations of the economy and society. Though it's unseen, the economy and society both rest on moral foundations. As moral decay consumes those foundations, the consequences are social and economic decay. The authentic market--defined by transparency and competition--has been replaced by monopolies and cartels that generate outsized profits not by increasing value but by reducing the value of products and services. Profits flow not from improving durability and quality but by reducing them. There are words that describe our economy: exploitation, profiteering, predation, extraction. Since political influence is now an open auction in which corporations place the winning bids, there is zero political interest or will to address the inequality divide. The current administration's core economic policies are unchanged from 2008-09: cut taxes paid by the 10% (because they pay most of the income taxes), push interest rates down to goose borrowing, and inflate asset bubbles to create "the wealth effect." That these only increase wealth and income inequality--who cares? Not the political class of either party. We've succumbed to normalization: all this is "the way it is." But this is artifice: normalizing extremes doesn't make them stable. The system has reached its limits and the social order is crumbling. * * * My new book Investing In Revolution describes the inevitable result: a social revolution, not a political one that replaces one ruling elite with another. This will be a revolution that changes values and restores social norms. We will all have the opportunity to invest in revolution. To me, this is all in plain sight, but since nobody else sees it, it's hidden in plain sight. The Introduction (free) summarizes the many dynamics in play. I tend to think this might be my most important book, as I sincerely doubt the next decade will be a simple extension of the last decade. Just as the Ming Empire crumbled when it reached its limits, our system has reached its limits; while we focus on AI and finance, society is crumbling beneath our feet. I'm offering the book at a 20% discount ($16 for the paperback, $20 for the hardcover and $7.95 for the Kindle edition) through Wednesday October 22, 6 pm EST. Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com Subscribe to my Substack for free Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 19:15
Conservative Takaichi To Become Japan's New Prime Minister After LDP, Innovation Party Agree On Coalition Sanae Takaichi, the leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is set to become Japan's first female prime minister after the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party formally signed a coalition agreement on Monday, giving Takaichi enough support to be elected in parliament on Tuesday. Sanae Takaichi, right, the leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and Japan Innovation Party head Hirofumi Yoshimura pose for a picture after signing in a coalition deal in the Diet on Oct. 20 At the Monday signing ceremony, Nikkei reported that Takaichi said, "As we are parties sharing the same national vision, I am very much looking forward to working together to strengthen Japan's economy and transform the country into a shape that can be responsibly passed on to future generations." The man who made her premiership possible, Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura, leader of the Japan Innovation Party, said, "As a reformist party, we share the same desire to advance the reforms we have championed thus far and to improve Japan." He said earlier on Monday that he made a phone call to Takaichi in the morning and told her, "We agree to the coalition deal. Let's move Japan forward together." With the additional backing of the center-right coalition partner, Takaichi is seen as likely to win the most support in the race. An attempt by three opposition parties to stand behind a single candidate failed as Japan Innovation decided to go with the veteran LDP politician, the Nikkei writes Yoshimura said that for the time being, the party will support the cabinet from outside without taking cabinet positions. "A coalition government is essentially a collective of ruling parties and the cabinet," Yoshimura said. "We aim to exert our strength in the legislature as part of the coalition government." The LDP and Japan Innovation by themselves will not hold a majority of seats in both the upper and lower houses of the Diet, or parliament, but will be only a few short; in the lower house, they will hold a combined 231 seats in the 465-seat chamber, and in the upper house, they will have 120 seats out of 248. They could, however, reach a majority if they bring in other minor groupings in parliament, allowing for easier passage of bills and budgets. The LDP has already courted Sanseito, a right-wing populist party, as well as other smaller political forces. Takaichi said the two-party coalition will be the base. "We will thoroughly coordinate policies between the LDP and Japan Innovation, and responsibly submit them to the Diet. After that, since there are opposition parties that share similar views, we will call for broad participation and carefully refine them one by one." Japan Innovation members will vote for Takaichi in the parliament's prime ministerial election scheduled to take place on Tuesday after incumbent Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his cabinet resign en masse. Takaichi will form her cabinet on the same day. The election of a new prime minister will be held in separate votes in both houses of parliament. In each chamber, if no nominee wins a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held between the top two vote-getters. The choice in the lower house will prevail in the event of a split decision. In Monday's deal, Japan Innovation secured "nearly full agreement" on most of the 12 policy areas where it demanded change -- from social security reforms to the establishment of a "second capital" to move certain government and economic functions away from Tokyo -- according to the party's co-leader, Fumitake Fujita. "Moving forward as a coalition -- although we will be straightforward in expressing our dissatisfaction -- we wish to pledge our commitment to walk together as partners, determined to accomplish what we have mutually agreed upon for Japan's revival," Fujita told reporters after a meeting with fellow lawmakers on Monday. The agreement states that the new government will create a government efficiency bureau to thoroughly review tax incentives and subsidies, and eliminate those deemed ineffective. Japan Innovation's demand to reduce the number of Diet members -- something the party says is "the gateway to reforms" -- was also included in the written pact. It says the parties "will aim to reduce the number of the lower house seats by 10%" during the upcoming Diet session. But the proposal has caused political ripples across political parties. But Fujita said differences remain on exempting food items from the 8% consumption tax for two years and on banning corporate and group political donations. The two parties will establish an inter-party consultative body to continue discussions on these policies. The LDP-Japan Innovation cooperation comes after the former's long-term coalition partner Komeito announced it was ending their 26-year partnership, throwing Japanese politics into a state of turmoil. The decision sparked intense jockeying among parties to form a government to succeed the one led by LDP's Ishiba. Both the LDP and Japan Innovation are conservative, and their policy priorities align in some respects, such as on the need for constitutional reform and stressing the importance of maintaining the Imperial lineage through the male line. In the short term, the LDP and Japan Innovation will enact a law to cut the surtax on gasoline, and pass a supplementary budget to implement measures to combat rising prices during the Diet session, which starts Tuesday and runs through mid-December. Both sides also agreed to strengthen Japan's intelligence capabilities by upgrading the existing Cabinet Intelligence Office to give it more authority, as well as by establishing a foreign intelligence agency. "The agreement incorporates content previously agreed upon by parties, including the LDP and Japan Innovation," said Takaichi. "I believe this coalition government is essential for driving Japan's politics forward with strength." The market reaction was one of relief: on Monday, the Nikkei surge 337bps to a new ATH led by combination of some positive stories like physical AI-related, including SoftBank Group, recovery of sentiment in banks, raised iPhone17 production forecast. Much of the move was in anticipation of tomorrow's key event, namely Takaichi being nominated as prime minister, which the bank says is now fully priced by investors. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 18:50
No 'King', But Ten Million 'Dukes' Authored by Anthony Esolen via AmericanGreatness.com, I see there were protests this weekend, with the American people rising against the supposed King of the United States, Donald Trump. They seem to be most enraged at his using the National Guard to enforce immigration laws passed by the people’s representatives in Congress, over the will of local dukes and duchesses. Those aristocrats have no jurisdiction over immigration, which by its nature is a national and not a state or municipal issue. I won’t address that matter here. I note only that this outrage against executive overreach, or the tyranny of petty autocrats, is quite new. Of course, the opponents of President Trump believe that he is behaving like a king. “If only!” I might say, thinking of how medieval kings actually governed. We tend to project onto monarchy the most egregious examples of centralized and personal power. “L’État, c’est moi,” said Louis XIV to the French parliament in 1655. His predecessor, Louis IX (r. 1226-1270), not only never said such a thing. He could not have conceived it. France then was a patchwork of duchies and counties, and their relations to the royal will and power were never spelled out in legal terms. Things were similar in England: Magna Carta (1215), the Great Charter, set a limit to the power of the king as opposed to the traditional power of the local lords and squires. Towns too had their charters, as did abbeys and friaries and universities, which were run by the Church. The vogue of claiming a divine right to govern as an absolute ruler was brief; it was a feature of the late Renaissance, and nowhere in Western Europe was it simply accepted. Indeed, by the time of the American Revolution, the engine of power in England was not King George III (r. 1760-1820), but the Parliament. The slogan “No taxation without representation” would make no sense if the king were perceived as the principal villain, though there was little love between him and the Americans. Medieval kings often made common cause with townsmen and the middle class in a flanking action against their common foes, the landed gentry. The Mayor of London would likely be more friendly to the king than the House of Lords would be, just as a kid getting beaten up in the schoolyard might make friends with a big bodyguard, a “king,” if you will. In such a situation, if you want “no king,” that is, no big fellow to throw his weight around, you must either be one of the petty lords oppressing the locals, or there is no such oppression to suffer, or you are simply confused, taken in by a word while you miss the reality. For the fact is that Americans are governed by innumerable unelected bureaucrats, “human resource” meddlers at work, layers of administrative deflectors at school, incomprehensible protocols set by medical insurance companies and connived at by hospitals, the Internal Revenue Service, and now, slouching towards the United Nations to be born, what threatens to be a worldwide public health super-government, grinding to indiscriminate dust every last feature of an independent local human life. Where have these opponents of arbitrary rule been? The Supreme Court Royal Over The Undifferentiated Masses—now there’s a passel of archons for you. Is there a single feature of human culture, let alone local government, that it considers outside of its immense, all-comprehending wisdom? Redefine marriage, detaching it from common sense and human biology? No problem. Specify what a football coach may not say to his players in the locker room? No problem. Manage a city school district for twenty years, busing a certain number of these students to that place and those students to this place? No problem. Rifling people in their towns and states of almost all their rightful power and responsibility to police obscenity? No problem. It has become so bad that we all now assume that the main feature we want in our president is that he will agree with us on what kinds of juridical archons to appoint, the super-legislators in the most delicate and yet far-reaching cultural problems, who are no more to be trusted with such power than nine plumbers or nine housewives or nine truck drivers or just the first nine names in the Washington telephone book. Nor should we expect nine lawyers to have the broad human experience we look for in a legislature, where a variety of people consulting on an issue may see many practical consequences quite invisible to those committed to legal abstractions—or rather shaped by the slogans popular at the faculty lounge or the departmental coffee shop. We are bristling with petty tyrants everywhere. Right now, the Supreme Court—of all things!—is considering a miserable law in Colorado that forbids psychiatrists to help troubled young people become comfortable with their own sex, rather than believing the impossible, that they are “really” boys in girl-flesh or vice versa. The child may desire such assistance; the parents may desire it; but the tyrants of Colorado don’t, so the little people in that state must appeal to the super-tyrants of the Supreme Court just to secure the right to do what anyone with the slightest common sense would consider a matter of course. Where in all this tangled mess—and we may include schoolteachers and guidance counselors who rob parents of their rights, acting not in loco parentis but contra parentem—are the people who now pretend to be affrighted by authoritarianism? Where were they in 2020? Weren’t they the same people ready to call you a murderer if you dared to question shutting down everything? Aren’t they ready to do the same the next time there is or there is said to be a public health crisis? And aren’t they the same people who, for the sake of the “planet”—a planet, after all, wins a point or two for sounding scientific—are eager to override national governments, let alone the regional and the local, not to mention individual human choices? And what about schooling? There are plenty of Americans who hate homeschooling so much, they are eager to forbid by law the kind of thing that made the young Thomas Edison a genius on the run, and of course they would exercise that tyranny with high-toned slogans on their lips. How much will you wager that most of those who would subject all children to the public schools (for there are some who oppose private schooling to boot) are in sympathy with “No Kings”? If Donald Trump did nothing else than to take a sledgehammer to the Department of Education, that pit of uselessness and stupidity in the service of centralized power, he would deserve praise and gratitude from all lovers of liberty. Meanwhile, the greatest threat to human freedom has spread like poisonous vapor into every facet of life. Who controls the algorithms that tweak billions of minds at once? Who suppresses people who say the “wrong” things? Who directs the eye toward articles that push the favored positions, while those who search for the opposition must persevere and wade through pages of trash? We don’t know, and we can’t find out. It’s easy to oppose Donald Trump, because he’s visible, all too visible, and he invites the outrage. But let’s be honest. In a healthy society, there would be no superhighways from the national capital directly into your living room or into your child’s brain. Of the 365 days of the year, you might spend two or three of them grouching about the president, not because you belonged or did not belong to his party, but because most of human life would be quite separate from the whole monstrous thing we take for granted as the national government. We don’t want a king, but we’ll take ten million dukes instead? “Here, peasant, sign this petition against kings, and be quick about it,” says the duke’s flunky. “If you value your freedom, you’d better do it.” Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 18:25
Gigantic Muslim 'Planned Community' Meets Resistance From Texas AG Authored by Wendi Strauch Mahoney via AmericanThinker.com, Texas attorney general Ken Paxton has asked the Texas State Securities Board (TSSB) to review what he says is evidence that entities tied to the East Plano Islamic Center (EPIC)’s EPIC City project violated state and federal securities laws — and to refer the matter back so he can file suit. Paxton called the alleged misconduct “flagrant,” arguing that state law requires a TSSB referral before his office can bring a securities action. "After a thorough investigation, it has become clear that the developers behind EPIC City flagrantly and undeniably violated the law,” said Attorney General Paxton. “The bad actors behind this illegal scheme must be held accountable for ignoring state and federal regulations. In accordance with state law, the TSSB should review our findings and refer this matter to me for further legal action. EPIC City is a 402-acre master-planned community near Josephine, Texas, spanning Collin and Hunt Counties. Materials describe housing (single-family, townhomes, multifamily), a mosque, schools, parks, senior living, and retail. The project vehicle, Community Capital Partners, LP (CCP), has been described in EPIC’s promotions as created by EPIC, with EPIC as the beneficiary of project profits. In March, Paxton opened a consumer-protection probe and served a Civil Investigative Demand (CID) on CCP, the vehicle formed to develop EPIC City. The March 25, 2025 press release highlighted EPIC’s own promotional statements that CCP was “created by EPIC” and that EPIC is the “only beneficiary of profits” from the project. Two days later, on March 27, Gov. Greg Abbott announced that the TSSB would investigate EPIC and “affiliated entities for potential failures to comply with applicable state and federal securities requirements, including protections against fraud.” In the same press release, Abbott said he sent a letter dated March 26 requesting EPIC “cease and desist funeral service operations.” He also said that “a dozen state agencies” were investigating “serious legal issues” concerning the potential illegal activities involving the alleged purchase of Texas property by “foreign adversaries ... taking place at EPIC.” On April 14, 2025, Paxton expanded his investigation, demanding communications from Plano, Richardson, Wylie, and Josephine due to alleged local support for the project. The requests sought emails and records referencing EPIC, EPIC City, and CCP. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) also asked the Department of Justice to open a federal civil rights probe into EPIC City, as highlighted in his April 11, 2025 letter to the assistant attorney general for the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division. In the letter and subsequent press release, Cornyn expressed concern over the potential for religious discrimination that might “violate the constitutional rights of Jewish and Christian Texans, by preventing them from living in this new community and discriminating against them within the community.” Cornyn continued, Religious-based discrimination is a constitutional violation as well as a federal rights violation. Appropriate steps should be taken to ensure that this community does not run afoul of these obligations. It may also be appropriate for an investigation to explore whether the proponents of the proposed development are abiding by existing federal and state prohibitions on the enforcement of Sharia law. The DOJ closed its investigation with no charges, after developers affirmed that the community would be inclusive and marketed under the Fair Housing Act. However, the decision did not touch the state’s ongoing consumer protection and securities inquiries. Why Paxton’s inquiry? CCP marketed $80,000 shares to accredited investors with “each share purchased [guaranteeing] one lot in EPIC City” with a stated 15% discount, an arrangement that is central to Paxton’s investigation. Under the Texas Securities Act and the Supreme Court’s Howey test, a “security” includes an investment contract, money invested in a common enterprise with an expectation of return that depends on the managerial efforts of others. Promising that a discounted $80,000 “share” secures a right to buy a developed lot later signals an expected economic gain that hinges on the developer entitling land, installing infrastructure, and delivering lots. The arrangement fulfills the investment-contract definition used by Texas and federal law. Anti-fraud rules would also apply. If EPIC/CCP’s “share” is treated as an investment contract, it is a security under the Texas Securities Act (TSA). Once the “share for future lot right + discount” is characterized as a security, certain rules apply. Before any security is offered or sold in Texas, it must be registered or notice-filed — or the sale must qualify for an exemption — and the issuer must provide truthful, non-misleading disclosures. Even if an exemption applies, material misstatements or omissions about permitting status, ownership, timelines, lot deliverability, or the use of investor funds can trigger anti-fraud liability. Paxton’s Oct. 14 statement characterizes the alleged conduct as securities law violations. The share pitch also heightens the expectation of profit: a guaranteed right to buy a finished lot at a fixed discount functions as a return mechanism that depends on CCP/EPIC obtaining approvals, building infrastructure, and delivering lots. Investor upside (the discount and potential appreciation) stems from the promoter’s efforts, not the investor’s — classic Howey elements recognized by Texas courts. Finally, context matters: As of mid-2025, public reporting shows no issued construction permits, raising materiality concerns for any marketing that implies near-term delivery of “developed lots.” That gap between promotional claims and on-the-ground progress is precisely what securities regulators scrutinize under anti-fraud provisions. Therefore, the specific potential material flashpoints in EPIC’s marketing/investor pitch are related to Deliverability/Timing: Saying a share guarantees the right to a developed lot implies that the developer can obtain approvals, install infrastructure, and deliver lots on a timeline. If permits/plat approvals weren’t in hand (or were far off), that’s material. Economics: A 15% discount and advertised per-lot price ranges anchor investor return expectations. If cost inputs, financing, or timelines were speculative or changed materially, failing to update buyers can be an omission. Use of Proceeds/Structure: Who actually benefits (e.g., the relationship between EPIC and CCP), how funds are escrowed/spent, and contingencies if lots are delayed or never delivered — all are core disclosure items in a securities offering. If the marketing glossed over these or suggested protections that didn’t exist, that’s classic anti-fraud territory. Amy “Mek” Mekelburg — an activist and founder and editor-in-chief of RAIR Foundation USA — argues that EPIC City will become a “sharia-controlled enclave.” She says she has tracked the project since its inception and highlighted a promotional EPIC City video on X in which Muslim leaders describe the community as the “epicenter of Islam in America.” According to Mekelburg, her pinned post of that video drew over 7 million views before X removed it. She points to EPIC’s 76,000-square-foot Islamic complex — “one of the largest in Texas” — as evidence of growing influence and calls EPIC City “a massive, sharia-adherent residential and commercial enclave ... a deliberate blueprint for a self-contained Islamic community, built around sharia principles and insulated from public oversight.” According to the Dallas News, “Yasir Quadhi, resident scholar at EPIC,” said “the only laws the community will enforce will be Texas and federal ones. They are not seeking to impose religion on anyone.” Separately, House Bill 4211 — ceremonially signed by Gov. Greg Abbott in September 2025 — “creates a framework for regulating entity-owned residential arrangements,” addressing ownership structures cited in EPIC City and EPIC Ranches, according to Texas Scorecard. Abbott said the measure is intended to prevent using religion “as a form of segregation,” framing the debate around both religious freedom and the right to contract, and pledging to ensure that Texas law prevents “discriminatory compounds” from being built. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 17:40
Soros Getting Ready For Showdown Against Trump Administration A Justice Department official recently instructed attorneys to launch an investigation into billionaire George Soros and his son Alex's influential Open Society Foundations, a move that sent shockwaves across the leftwing NGO-Democrat complex. George Soros, left, and Donald Trump, Photos: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images, Ken Cedeno/UPI/Bloomberg President Donald Trump has repeatedly accused George and Alex Soros, both major Democratic donors, of funding violent protests and engaging in unlawful activities, while the president has even suggested the possibility of charges under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO). These allegations stem from a report by the Capital Research Center, a conservative research organization, which claims Soros-backed groups like the environmental Sunrise Movement have connections to terrorism. Unsurprisingly, the Open Society Foundations and the Sunrise Movement have strongly denied these allegations. "We condemn terrorism and we do not fund terrorism, period," Open Society Foundations President Binaifer Nowrojee said in a statement. In a separate statement, a Sunrise Movement spox claimed that the climate alarmist organization is committed only to nonviolent activism. The administration is simultaneously pursuing IRS reforms that would strengthen the agency's ability to conduct criminal inquiries into progressive organizations. Open Society Foundations is projected to distribute $1.4 billion in grants this year to various causes, including Planned Parenthood's advocacy arm and climate change initiatives in Africa, the Journal reports. The far-left Soros organization told the Murdoch-owned newspaper that it has not received direct contact from the IRS or the Department of Justice but is preparing legal briefs in anticipation of potential inquiries. Despite the prospect of facing accountability, Open Society Foundations refuses to back away from supporting its far-left causes. "We won't be intimidated into silence," Nowrojee told the Journal. "One of the playbooks of authoritarianism is to close a space through threats and to try and chill speech." George Soros recently made a $10 million donation to Democrat efforts to redraw California's congressional map, marking the largest single contribution aimed at countering Republican redistricting initiatives. Before the current investigation began, Soros had already been supporting organizations that actively oppose President Trump's policies. The Open Society Action Fund provided a $3 million grant in 2023 to Indivisible, an organization managing data and communications for the "No Kings" protests, Fox News reports. Since 2017, Soros's foundations have awarded Indivisible a total of $7.61 million. In 2017, Indivisible also received $350,000 from Tides Advocacy, part of the Tides Network, which has previously faced scrutiny for its connections to controversial campus protests. As ZeroHedge reported, Soros money is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to far-left groups' opposition to Trump: The nation is waking up to the fact that dark-money NGO networks, including the Arabella Network, Soros Network, Gates Foundation, Ford Foundation, Tides Foundation, Rockefeller Network, Singham Network, and many others, are funneling millions of dollars into what investigative researchers Peter Schweizer and Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute call "Riot, Inc." - the permanent protest industrial complex and the engine behind "No Kings 2.0" partners and organizers. These protests are far from organic; this movement is manufactured, coordinated, and entirely artificial. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 17:20
Taibbi: FEMA Workers Improperly Collected Data About Politics Of Disaster Victims Authored by Matt Taibbi via Racket News, Last November 8th, on the Saturday after Election Day, one of the more bizarre post-scripts to Donald Trump’s re-election emerged in the form of a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) decision to sideline one official accused of telling FEMA workers to “avoid homes advertising Trump” while canvassing for victims of Hurricane Milton in Florida. Joe Biden and former FEMA administrator Deanne Criswell in Florida after Hurricane Milton last year The Daily Wire spoke to multiple FEMA officials who produced screenshots of entries like “Trump sign, no contact per leadership”: The most painful confirmation, however, came from then-FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, who testified after the election that the episode was an “isolated incident,” as well as “unacceptable” and “heartbreaking,” suggesting the problem was limited to one eventually-terminated Disaster Survivor Assistance crew leader named Marn’i Washington, adding: “I do not believe that this employee’s actions are indicative of any widespread cultural problems at FEMA.” Washington didn’t take the CYA maneuver lying down. She made a series of aggressive media appearances, saying repeatedly “my orders come from my superior” from above when instructing subordinates to avoid homes that made some FEMA workers “uncomfortable” by featuring Trump paraphernalia: Marn'i Washington, the ex-FEMA employee accused of telling her team not to go to Florida homes with Trump yard signs, says the order to avoid certain houses was from her direct superior based on previous team encounters. More: https://t.co/2z6kdlrOLN pic.twitter.com/xxEqmiSG2E November 19, 2024 The Democrats generally maintained that decisions to skip over houses featuring Trump signs or signs about guns were legit and safety-based. Republicans blasted FEMA workers for comparing Trump voters to “vicious dogs” and suggested instructions like “Per leadership no stop Trump flag,” and “Trump sign, no contact per leadership” were indicative of a wider problem. A year later, the Privacy Office of the Department of Homeland Security is releasing a review of that episode, the broader issue of using disaster relief work to collect political intelligence on voters, and the potentially withholding of benefits from some with the wrong beliefs. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the new administration found more than just one “isolated incident,” describing violations of the Privacy Act of 1974, which with a few exceptions bars collection of information about First Amendment-protected speech, like political signage. Most tellingly, though, DHS investigators found — in a near-exact parallel to trends in pro-censorship programs — that a lot of the political controversy surrounding FEMA aid grew out of the vague way in which the agency’s Disaster Survivor Assistance Field Operations Guide was written. The Field Operations Guide instructed FEMA workers to “Remove yourself from the situation if you feel threatened” when dealing with “hostile” individuals, the only problem being, as the new report notes: “The Disaster Survivor Assistance Field Operations Guide does not define the term ‘hostile.’” “The way the guide was written, FEMA employees had leeway to skip outreach to a house if its signs made them feel uncomfortable,” one Washington-based First Amendment lawyer put it last week. “So it’s basically the same concept of a harm or distress standard we’re seeing in Europe with speech issues, where the emotional response of the observer is what matters legally, as opposed to a concrete rule.” The DHS report doesn’t describe a huge number of instances, but does list examples of FEMA workers from various relief efforts taking down political information well before the incident that actually made the news. FEMA’s actions were “not limited to the Hurricane Milton disaster relief efforts in 2024,” and in fact, “FEMA impermissibly collected prohibited information at least dating back to the Hurricane Ida disaster in September 2021.” Some examples cited: October, 2021: “Homeowner had sign stated… this is Trump country.” September, 2021: “A lot of political flags, posters, etc. ‘Fuck Joe Biden,’ ‘MAGA 2024,’ ‘Joe Biden Sucks’ ‘Trump 2024’ We do not recommend anyone visiting this location.” November 2024: ‘There was a political flyer so I didn’t leave a FEMA brochure.” Neither Criswell nor Washington responded to requests for comment. The DHS report lists several recommendations for changing procedures to make both political information-gathering and subjective aid delivery harder, but the problem the report identifies suggests a broader, hairier problem. Federal aid workers empowered to withhold relief based on what they consider “hostile” signage in either direction creates an opening for a federalized version of the old “walking-around-money” operation pioneered by ward-heelers in city elections, in which petty cash made it into the hands of one party’s potential voters. The number of incidents in the new DHS report don’t come close to suggesting an election-altering phenomenon (the most controversial instances came last year, but still totaled under 100 episodes), but as one official who worked on the report noted, the phenomenon still “really escalated in the last administration.” The DC-based lawyer said the mere fact that FEMA aid can be politicized should worry members of both parties enough to do something about it. “People hate the government enough as it is. If it’s known that disaster relief can be politicized and nobody fixes the problem, imagine how mad people will be one or two cycles from now.” Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 17:00
Federal Appeals Court Allows Trump's National Guard Deployment in Oregon A federal appeals court ruled on Monday that President Donald Trump can send National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon while a lawsuit against the action works its way through lower courts. Federal agents, including members of the Department of Homeland Security, the Border Patrol, and police, clash with protesters outside a downtown U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility in Portland, Oregon, on Oct. 04, 2025. Spencer Platt/Getty Images A three-judge panel of the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit voted 2-1 to stay an Oct. 4 order by US District Judge Karin J. Immergut of Oregon - who blocked Trump's move to deploy members of the Oregon National Guard to the city. "Defendants are likely to succeed on the merits of their appeal, and ... other stay factors weigh in their favor. We grant Defendants’ motion for a stay pending appeal," wrote the panel - which consists of Circuit Judges Ryan Nelson, Bridget Bade, and Susan Graber, who heard oral arguments in San Francisco on Oct. 9. In her dissent, Graber got very dramatic, begging the full 9th Circuit to reverse the decision to "retain faith in our judicial system for just a little longer." 👀 An SOS flare from the panel's dissenting judge, Susan Graber, pleading with her colleagues to reverse the decision and for the public to "retain faith in our judicial system for just a little longer. https://t.co/PlQT9e8vGc pic.twitter.com/mgBiFUWgWF October 20, 2025 Immergut had issued a temporary restraining order directing the Trump administration not to deploy federalized National Guard troops to Portland - a right that any president may exercise on an emergency basis if the right conditions are met. As the Epoch Times notes further, Immergut noted that Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sept. 27 that he was sending troops “to protect War ravaged Portland, and any of our ICE Facilities under siege from attack by Antifa, and other domestic terrorists.” The judge held Trump was not legally entitled to federalize the Oregon National Guard and that the situation in Portland was not as dire as the federal government claimed. On Oct. 8, the same Ninth Circuit panel restored Trump’s control over Oregon National Guard troops but said he may not deploy them for the time being. The panel granted what lawyers call an administrative stay of Immergut’s order, which gives the circuit court judges more time to consider the federal government’s emergency appeal. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 16:40
Slouching Towards Peace Authored by James Howard Kunstler, “Zelensky has been given a Russian ultimatum via Trump. Accept Russia terms or face total destruction.” - SiriusReport on “X” Well, “No Kings” came and went. Inflatable animal costumes did a brisk business for one week. The old Boomers got a social space to act out their nostalgic re-visit to the Age of Aquarius. They resisted. . . something. (Mainly authority of any kind, a retarded adolescent fantasy.) And now it’s back to Rachel Maddow for further instructions. The Republic slogs on, albeit with a shut-down government. Did you forget about Ukraine? Yes, a war is still going on there and it’s a weeping lesion on Western Civ, possibly leading to fatal sepsis. US neocons set the stage in 2014 with the Maidan color revolution as a wedge to wreck and then loot Russia. Then, for eight years, Ukraine harassed the Donbas with US-supplied missiles and artillery. Russia had enough of that in 2022 and ventured in to stop it. For “Joe Biden,” the war was a nice smokescreen to cover his long-running grift operations in Ukraine. The Euro club stupidly came along for the ride. It was all a tragic and feckless waste. Mr. Trump wants to stop it, but Western Civ as a whole is in such a state of florid strategic disorder that he’s had to pretend the US supports Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky could not possibly carry on this mischief without US weapons and loads of US taxpayer cash. Still, the Russians advance implacably on-the-ground. They are going to “win” this war eventually — meaning, the US and Europe will lose — and everybody knows it. It would be nice if France, Germany, and the UK were still stable, thriving, rational nations, but they are not. They have entered an arc of collapse, largely due to their own stupendously bad choices, and their leadership is insane. Macron, Merz, Starmer. . . these are the Three Stooges of our time, and Europe’s collapse has degenerated to morbid, masochistic slapstick as their factories shutter and the Jihadis go about raping their wives and daughters. Do you think that’s not happening? Mr. Trump surely realizes he has to cut the US loose from this evil clown-show. That they are our NATO allies complicates things, yet, really, the Euro gang is impotent and NATO has become an irrelevant anachronism. They have no effective military mojo. Their economies are imploding. They have surrendered their culture to a savage cult. Their populations are demoralized, emasculated, in thrall to the menopausal viragos in their councils and ministries. They know full-well that Ukraine lies in Russia’s sphere-of-influence — a centuries-long reality — and that it is none of their business. Yet, Macron, Merz, and Starmer keep pushing the fantasy that Russia seeks to invade them, and so they must strike at Russia before that happens . . . all pure delusion. You can suppose that Mr. Putin wants a negotiated peace rather than continuing the long grind on-the-ground, with all its casualties and expenditures. Such a negotiated peace really amounts to the US ceasing to support Zelensky’s war effort. Of course, such is the insanity of US political life, that many in our government pretend that we have a stake in Ukraine, and must retain some control of it. Mr. Trump must know this is insane and is against the interests of the USA. He knows that Ukraine is historically in Russia’s sphere of influence — as Venezuela is in ours — and that the best outcome of this mess would be for Ukraine to return to its prior status as a harmless frontier between Russia and western Europe — as it had been since 1945 — looking to its humble business of growing wheat for export. We do not need Ukraine to be anybody’s problem, despite the insane yearnings of the neocons, the weapons manufacturers, and the reckless globalists of the EU, to make it everyone’s problem. Hence, Mr. Trump’s dilemma: how to dissociate from this losing proposition and come out looking like a winner, saving Europe from becoming a smoldering ashtray, stanching the flow of US taxpayers’ money and US-made weapons into this black hole, and forging friendly relations with a Russia that is decades beyond being our ideological enemy? America and Russia’s interests are geopolitically aligned, though no one in the arena is willing to admit it. Russia has much more to worry about with China right at Siberia’s doorstep than with the USA, just as the USA has much more to worry about with China as it weaponizes A-I, moves into outer space, and casts a covetous eye on the resources of the USA, Australia, Africa, and its next-door-neighbor, Russia. These are the matters that Presidents Trump and Putin must be touching on in those long, two-and-a-half-hour phone confabs they hold. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump must put on a vaudeville show for his US adversaries about maybe giving tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. . . no, maybe not doing that. . . and the rest of the song and dance to make it appear that we are kinda-sorta still on Ukraine’s side when the truth is we are not so much at all. And so, the two presidents head for Budapest where — if the intel spooks of Euroland don’t try to bump them off there — they might come to the necessary agreement that the war will end because the US no longer supports it, not even the pretense of supporting it. President Viktor Orban of Hungary, who Mr. Trump respects, will be on hand for moral support. Expect some tough-talking mummery from DJT, just to throw the MSNBC lunatics off-balance. Rogue idiots such as Senators Blumenthal and Schiff will fume that “Trump lost Ukraine,” but the 50-plus percent of Americans who are not-insane will understand what actually happened. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 16:20
Trump Blasts Colombian President As 'Lunatic, Drug Leader' While Vowing New Tariffs President Trump has put Colombia on notice, and will hit the South American nation with new tariffs. He has further charged President Gustavo Petro with being an "illegal drug leader," saying the US will also halt all aid to the country. Trump asserted Sunday on social media that drug trafficking "has become the biggest business in Colombia" and said Petro "does nothing to stop it" despite years of US funding. "AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS... WILL NO LONGER BE MADE," the US president wrote. All of this came after earlier on Sunday President Trump confirmed that US forces previously "destroyed a very large drug-carrying submarine" off the coast of Venezuela - the sixth such strike on alleged narco-vessels in recent weeks. In follow-up while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump officially confirmed what Senator Lindsey Graham had hinted at earlier, saying further details about the tariffs would be released Monday. Senator Graham said on X that he'd a "very good conversation" with Trump, during which the president vowed to "hit Colombia not only by going after its drug traffickers but also where it hurts most - in its economy." Soon after Trump while speaking to reporters decried Colombia as being "out of control" and that "they have the worst president they’ve ever had - a lunatic with serious mental problems." Colombia has alleged that among the latest strikes in the south Caribbean was a fishing vessel carrying a Colombian national who was severely injured. But there's been some confusion over precisely which strike it was. But speaking to reporters, Trump said "This submarine had one purpose - to transport massive quantities of drugs." But it appears Colombia is making the allegation about a prior attack, and not the submarine incident. He added: "They’re producing enormous amounts of cocaine, shipping it worldwide, and destroying countless families." Q: The Columbian president says that the US killed an innocent Columbia fisherman TRUMP: He said that when we shot down a submarine that they were just fishing. This was a submarine that was meant for one reason -- to carry massive amounts of drugs Q: He's talking about a… pic.twitter.com/FW4O92le14 October 20, 2025 And yet... The two survivors of an American military strike on a suspected drug-carrying vessel in the Caribbean will be sent to Ecuador and Colombia, their home countries, U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday. The military rescued the pair after striking a submersible vessel Thursday, in what was at least the sixth such attack since early September. Seeking to prove the US narrative of things, Trump and the Pentagon's public affairs team both shared a video showing US air assets destroying the "drug-carrying submarine." However, no details were provided regarding the type of aircraft or weapons used in the strike. Some analysts have questioned the legality of such 'executions' on the high seas, without warning or attempt to intercept. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:45
World's Most Advanced AI Chips Now Being Made In America Due To Trump's Policies: Nvidia Chief Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the United States has entered a new “industrial revolution” powered by artificial intelligence, crediting President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and manufacturing agenda for enabling the first-ever production of the company’s most advanced Blackwell AI chips on American soil. While speaking from a semiconductor fabrication plant in Phoenix, Arizona, on Oct. 17, and later during an interview with Fox News, Huang said that Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) have jointly reached volume production of U.S.-made Blackwell wafers—an achievement he called “a historic moment” in both technology and industrial policy. “It’s the very first time in recent American history that the single most important chip is being manufactured here in the United States by the most advanced fab, by TSMC, here in the United States,” Huang said at the event. “This is the vision of President Trump of reindustrialization—to bring back manufacturing to America, to create jobs, of course, but also, this is the single most vital manufacturing industry and the most important technology industry in the world.” The milestone was marked in a ceremony at the Arizona fab, where Huang joined TSMC executives to sign the first U.S.-produced Blackwell wafer—a symbolic gesture meant to highlight the reemergence of cutting-edge semiconductor production in the United States. In his Fox News interview, Huang credited Trump’s tariffs and energy policies with speeding up the decision to manufacture advanced chips in the United States rather than keeping production overseas. “This last week was a historic week,” he said on “The Sunday Briefing.” “We manufactured the most advanced AI chips in the world, in the most advanced fab in the world, here in America for the first time. All of this started with President Trump wanting to reindustrialize the United States. His tariffs were a pressing agent in making this possible at the speed that we’re doing, and now just shortly after less than a year, we’re now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the United States. This is just the beginning of it.” Trump has made tariffs the centerpiece of a broader industrial strategy aimed at reshaping global supply chains and reducing reliance on foreign manufacturing. Since returning to the White House, he has imposed a range of duties on imports—from steel and aluminum to vehicles and electronics—while noting that companies can avoid tariffs entirely by building in the United States. Trump administration officials have said the goal of the tariffs is not only to raise federal revenue but also to force corporate investment back onto U.S. soil—a stance that has drawn both manufacturing commitments and legal challenges. Huang estimated that within several years, roughly $500 billion worth of AI supercomputing systems could be built and installed in the United States, including data centers, chip fabs, and advanced packaging plants. He said the scale of construction would also generate demand for skilled trades such as electricians, welders, and precision technicians. With his remarks, Huang joins other business leaders who have recently endorsed Trump’s tariff approach as a catalyst for reshoring. Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer, for example, said recently that tariffs helped justify a $300 million expansion of its Ohio manufacturing plants, calling the policies essential to a “level playing field.” “Any investment is a bet for the future,” Bitzer said. “Our bet is that these tariff policies stay.” Meanwhile, Trump’s trade program faces a pivotal test at the U.S. Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments next month on whether the administration exceeded its authority in imposing certain tariffs under emergency powers. Trump has said that overturning the tariffs would jeopardize national security and undermine U.S. leverage abroad, saying during an Oct. 19 interview, “If they took away tariffs, then they’ve taken away our national security,” adding that an unfavorable ruling could mean the United States will struggle “for years.” Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:30
India's Largest Metals Refinery Just Ran Out Of Silver For The First Time In History Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Shortages hit London too. The silver market is broken. Sold Out in India, Panic in London Bloomberg comments How the Silver Market Broke Key Takeaways Vipin Raina’s company, India’s largest precious metals refinery, ran out of silver stock for the first time in its history due to high demand from Indian customers. The shortages in India were soon felt globally, with the London silver market also running out of available metal, and traders describing a market that was “all but broken”. The silver market crisis was caused by a combination of factors, including a multi-year solar power boom, a rush to ship metal to the US to beat possible tariffs, and a sudden spike in demand from India, particularly during the Diwali holiday season. For months, Vipin Raina had been bracing for a stampede of buying from Indian customers loading up on silver to honor the Hindu goddess of wealth. But when it came, he was still blown away. At the start of last week, his company, India’s largest precious metals refinery, ran out of silver stock for the first time in its history. “Most people who are dealing silver and silver coins, they’re literally out of stock because silver is not there,” said Raina, who is head of trading at MMTC-Pamp India Pvt. “This kind of crazy market — where people are buying at these levels — I have not seen in my 27-year career.” Within days, the shortages were being felt not just in India, but around the world. India’s festival buyers were joined by international investors and hedge funds piling into precious metals as a bet on the fragility of the US dollar — or simply to follow the market’s irrepressible surge higher. By the end of last week, the frenzy had rippled across to the London silver market, where global prices are set and where the world’s biggest banks buy and sell in huge quantities. Now, it had run out of available metal. Traders describe a market that was all but broken, where even large banks stepped back from quoting prices as they fielded repeated calls from clients yelling down the line in frustration and exhaustion. This account of how the silver market broke is based on conversations with more than two dozen traders, bankers, refiners, investors and other market participants, many of whom spoke on condition of anonymity as they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. 100-to-1 Ratio When traders and analysts try to pinpoint the immediate cause of the silver crisis of 2025, they inevitably point to India. During the Diwali holiday season, hundreds of millions of devotees buy billions of rupees worth of jewelry to celebrate the goddess Lakshmi. Asia’s refineries usually meet this demand, which typically favors gold. But this year, many Indians turned to a different precious metal: silver. The pivot wasn’t random. For months, India’s social media stars promoted the idea that after gold’s record rally, silver was next to soar. The hype began in April, when investment banker and content creator Sarthak Ahuja told his nearly 3 million followers that silver’s 100-to-1 price ratio to gold made it the obvious buy this year. His video went viral during Akshaya Tritiya, an auspicious day for buying gold — second only to the Dhanteras festival on Oct. 18. The premiums for silver in India above global prices, usually no more than about a few cents an ounce, started to rise above $0.50, and then above $1, as supplies ran short. And just as Indian demand was soaring, China — a key source of supply — closed for a week-long holiday. So bullion dealers turned to London. They soon discovered that the city’s precious metals vaults were largely sold out. While London vaults underpinning the global market hold more than $36 billion in silver, the majority of it was owned by investors in exchange-traded funds. Demand for silver ETFs has soared in recent months, amid concerns about the stability of the US dollar, a wave of investment that’s become known as the “debasement trade.” Since the start of 2025, ETF investors have hoovered up more than 100 million ounces of silver, according to data compiled by Bloomberg — leaving a dwindling stockpile available to supply the sudden boom in Indian demand. Premiums soared above $5 an ounce, well beyond the normal spread of a few cents. “I have been here in this company for the last 28 years and I have never seen these kind of premiums,” said M.D. Overseas’s Mittal. Panic in London Traders described a growing panic as liquidity dried up. The cost of borrowing silver overnight soared to annualized rates of as high as 200%, according to consultancy Metals Focus. As the big banks that dominate the London market started to step back from the silver market, bid-ask spreads became so wide as to make trading near impossible. In another sign of the disarray in the market, one trader said the big banks were offering such wildly different quotes that he was able to buy from one bank at its ask price and simultaneously sell to another at its bid for an immediate profit – a rare sign of dysfunction in such a large and competitive market. For the past five years, silver demand has outstripped silver supply from mines and recycled metal — in large part thanks to a boom in the solar industry, which uses silver in its photovoltaic cells. Since 2021, demand has outstripped supply by a total of 678 million ounces, according to the Silver Institute, with photovoltaic demand more than doubling over the period. That compares to total inventories in London of around 1.1 billion ounces at the start of 2021. The stress in the silver market has been building since the start of the year, as fears that silver would be ensnared by President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs prompted traders to attempt to front-run any possible levies by shipping more than 200 million ounces of metal into New York warehouses. On top of the tariff drawdowns, more than 100 million ounces of silver flowed into global ETFs in the year through September, as a wave of investment demand for precious metals supercharged a rally that helped drive gold through $4,000 an ounce for the first time in history. Together, the two trends drained London’s reserves, leaving dangerously little metal available to underpin the roughly 250 million ounces of silver that change hands in the London market every day. Based on Metals Focus estimates, by early October the “free float” of metal not owned by ETFs in the London silver market had dropped to less than 150 million ounces. Silver Falls More Than 6% as Precious Metals Retreat After Rally Also note Silver Falls More Than 6% as Precious Metals Retreat After Rally Silver fell more than 6% in its biggest drop in six months as the broad precious metals group retreated following a furious rally this week. Concerns eased over credit quality in the US and trade frictions between China and the US, which is denting haven demand for gold and silver. A historic squeeze in the silver market in London is also showing signs of easing, prompting some profit-taking by investors. I see little reason to believe we have seen the end of this rally. There is no fiscal discipline anywhere. Despite soaring deficits and inflation well above target, the Fed is cutting rates anyway. Do you have faith in the Congress or Trump to address the deficit? Faith in the Fed? Neither do I. And neither do gold or silver. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 14:45
Watch: Liberal Boomer Paid-Protesters Caught Chaperoning At NYC 'No Kings' Protest The national conversation around the Democratic Party's dark-money NGO network, bankrolled by left-wing billionaires, has intensified following the weekend's "No Kings" protest, where unhinged white baby boomers paraded through city streets, turning the protest into yet another national laughingstock for the Democratic Party. White liberal boomers still fail to realize they are the "useful idiots" of the leftist billionaire class fueling these protests against right-leaning billionaires, President Trump, and Elon Musk. Many of these boomers fail to understand just how coordinated this color-revolution-style operation truly is. On the ground this weekend at the "No Kings" rally in Times Square was independent researcher and content creator Nate Friedman, who revealed how heavily coordinated the supposedly "organic" protest actually was, featuring professional protesters and paid activists working hand in hand with city officials. Friedman came across high-level organizers - or nonprofit foot soldiers - ensuring the color-revolution-style operation ran smoothly. He said these individuals were affiliated with the nonprofit "Rise and Resist." Earlier this year, Elon Musk wrote on X that the ActBlue-funded group Rise & Resist was one of the radical leftist groups responsible for Tesla "protests" that saw left-wing activists demonstrate at showrooms - and, in some cases, other left-wing groups participated in domestic terrorist operations against all things Tesla. "ActBlue funders include George Soros, Reid Hoffman, Herbert Sandler, Patricia Bauman, and Leah Hunt-Hendrix," Musk said at the time. Friedman's video exposes how these so-called "protests" are very coordinated. 🚨I crashed a No Kings paid protestor meeting and then exposed 3 of them in 4 minutes. WATCH 👇 pic.twitter.com/E5EiP4SO2V October 19, 2025 Building on this theme that the protests are billionaire-funded and highly coordinated, investigative researchers Peter Schweizer and Seamus Bruner of the Government Accountability Institute dropped a bombshell last week showing how the protest-industrial complex, dubbed "Riot, Inc.", is, in their words, "FUELED BY BILLIONAIRES." "We traced $294,487,641 to the official No Kings 2.0 partners & organizers... all funneled through the same 'Riot Inc.' dark-money networks," Bruner wrote on X. 📊We traced $294,487,641 to the official No Kings 2.0 partners & organizers...all funneled through the same “Riot Inc.” dark-money networks: pic.twitter.com/b6zFla79UP October 16, 2025 By late weekend, NGO expert Mike Benz, who knows a thing or two about how U.S. intelligence agencies deploy color revolutions overseas for regime-change operations, called the weekend protest "Fell flat in DC too. Coup d'eflat." Fell flat in DC too. Coup d’f́lat. https://t.co/1lb7JVesDG October 18, 2025 Gathering what we've learned so far: No Kings is a color-revolution-style operation linked to the Democratic Party's hatred for Trump and its hope that protests and riots can help oust the president. The movement is also funded by left-wing billionaires - how ironic, given that Indivisible calls the front group "No Kings." The problem is that when white liberal boomers and "grantifa" show up for the protest - not youngsters - the movement, especially heading into the colder months, is losing whatever momentum it had after the failed protest attempts earlier this year. Adding more color to what Democrats and their billionaire donors are up to, one could call it an invisible insurrection operated through the NGO world... Jason Curtis Anderson of One City Rising explains more about the dark world of NGOs: What Americans need to understand is that the NGO Industrial Complex is a mass-scale manipulation machine with many arms—but it always traces back to the same funding sources. Here's how it works: The largest donor to the DNC, George Soros, is also the undisputed king of the NGO Industrial Complex. This is no coincidence, because it's clear that this is where the power lies. The NGO world operates completely unrestricted by laws or bureaucracy. It functions as a parallel form of government that constantly subverts our elected government. Here's how: imagine you could fund organizations to get out the vote for far-left politicians who will pass reckless laws that make America harder to govern and destabilize the system. Then imagine you fund organizations that GOTV for progressive DAs like Alvin Bragg, who run on platforms of refusing to enforce criminal laws. Next, you fund the think tanks that draft far-left legislation, followed by the protest groups that mobilize for each cause—groups that also GOTV for your broader agenda. Then you fund the "movement lawyers" and bail funds for the rioters, and the civil rights organizations that insist questioning this machine is racist or un-American. See what I'm getting at? No matter which arm of the machine you're looking at—regardless of its name or which state it operates in—it's funded by the same network of NGOs, mostly Open Society Foundations and the Tides Foundation. So I'm not surprised to see that the people "marshaling" the protest are from a Soros-funded group. What should surprise you is how many Soros-funded groups co-sponsored and attended the No Kings protest—along with the lawyers, civil rights orgs like the ACLU, and the local state groups that helped GOTV for the politicians who supported it. They're all part of the same machine. * * * LIVE LONGER Smart Protein Collagen Peptides - blend of 3 peptides: Joints / Skin / Muscle Recovery Astaxanthin - high purity, extremely potent antioxidant (inflammation, eyes, skin, read more here) Ultimate Detox - Psyllium, Slippery Elm, Inulin, Chlorella, Black Walnut, Ginger, and Papaya Colostrum - Grass-fed, 1000mg IgG per serving + Lactoferrin and Proline-Rich Peptides (anti-inflammatory / immune) Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 14:25
These Two Things Are Very Different... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news, Fox News featured a segment highlighting how while Barack Obama is constructing a monstrously ugly concrete tower in Chicago, President Trump is overseeing a beautiful giant classical Arch to be located near the Arlington Memorial Bridge. These two things perfectly characterise their respective presidencies. Obama’s presidential library in Chicago resembles a prison, while President Trump aspires to restoring beauty, dignity and great architecture to the nation. The tower is being referred to as a “concrete porta potty” or the Death Star, while the great arch is being labeled the Arc de Trump. “We have Trump making architecture great again, trying to bring back classical architecture,” the Fox anchors stated, adding “It would meld in VERY nicely with the other monuments.” 🚨 UPDATE: Barack Hussein Obama is building a MONSTROSITY as his presidential library in Chicago - but President Trump is bringing back CLASSICAL, beautiful architecture near the Arlington Memorial Bridge Obama: Hideous "concrete porta potty" pic.twitter.com/mjUchfeFPt October 18, 2025 As we previously highlighted, the arch will be completed as part of America’s 250th celebration to “serve as a gateway to Washington, D.C.” according to the White House. As for Obama’s God awful erection… Locating the Death Star in Chicago was a bold move. https://t.co/Kz2MkuRuq7 October 14, 2025 View from the inside. pic.twitter.com/joLrR3DCxO October 14, 2025 This was the design inspiration: pic.twitter.com/goYdnGfOx7 October 15, 2025 pic.twitter.com/5YQkcZ7tTR October 15, 2025 This thing, along with the other dystopian nightmare crap that’s being built at the massive foreboding 19-acre Obama Presidential Center campus is on course to exceed A BILLION DOLLARS, according to reports. Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 14:00
Sustaining The Unsustainable By Rabobank The Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P500 closed around half a percentage point higher on Friday following comments by Donald Trump to Fox News that elevated tariffs on China are not “sustainable”. Markets seem to be interpreting this line as the latest incidence of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and bidding up risk (except Bitcoin) as a result. Gold prices dipped from record highs, yields on 10-year Treasuries fell 3.5bps and the DXY index strengthened to 98.43 Unfortunately, Trump didn’t quite clarify who the tariffs were unsustainable for, and neglected to mention that other features of the US economic relationship with China are not sustainable either. Large and growing trade imbalances and Chinese power over critical supply chains are cases in point. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to these last week when he accused China of pointing “a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world.” Saying “we’re not going to have it.” Thems don’t sound like TACO words to me. Happily, for markets, Bessent DID say that there is a good chance that the additional 100% tariff on China slated to come into effect on November 1st won’t actually happen, but he framed this as a decision that would ultimately depend on the outcome of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this month. Effectively, this should be read as a statement that the ball is in China’s court. If Beijing engages on rebalancing its economy towards domestic consumption and walks back restrictions on the export of critical minerals, the tariffs won’t happen (this might be called the ‘XACO trade’). If Beijing doesn’t engage, well... Bessent also just warned that national policy won’t be directed by the price action of the S&P500 – he doesn’t care about your stock portfolio. The United States is hardly standing still on addressing its own weaknesses when it comes to supply chains. US port fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-built vessels took effect last week, and the Australian PM Albanese will be meeting with President Trump today with a menu of offerings to help solve US vulnerabilities regarding rare earths. Albanese himself will be walking something of a geopolitical tightrope as he seeks to offend China (Australia’s #1 trading partner) as little as possible while also securing US investment in rare earths mining and processing to break China’s monopoly, US commitment to the China-oriented AUKUS defence pact and a sweetheart deal on tariffs (perhaps emulating the UK’s arrangements for steel and aluminium), all while resisting Scott Bessent’s suggestion of last week that the world should “decouple” from China over rare earths. Securing US subsidies for investment in foreign commodity production is likely to be a tall ask. Might Trump seek to extract a 3.5% of GDP defence spending commitment in return? Would Albo agree? What will Beijing say if he does? Needless to say, the US continues to make waves geopolitically. This is particularly the case regarding the revamped Monroe Doctrine in South America. Trump recently disclosed that the CIA has been active in Venezuela while holding out the possibility of land strikes. The FT yesterday reported that Trump’s goal has now shifted from countering drug trafficking to toppling the Maduro regime, who happens to preside over the world’s largest proven oil reserves alongside deposits of gold, diamonds and coltan (used for capacitors, aerospace applications, electric vehicles and 5G infrastructure). Additionally, Trump has recently tied commitments to provide financial bailouts and US Dollar swaplines to Argentina to Javier Milei’s fortunes at upcoming midterm elections. “If he wins, we’re staying with him. If he doesn’t win, we’re gone.” He has also suspended aid payments to Colombia, accusing the country’s left-wing President of being a “drug dealer”. Bolivia, meanwhile, looks set to close the book on 20 years of socialist government to elect a right-wing hardliner in what US Secretary of State Rubio described as “one of the more promising developments” in Latin America. Clearly, the US is directing traffic in its own backyard. The ‘Western Hemisphere’ is seen as the US’s exclusive domain, and other Great Powers are not invited. For evidence of this think the tariff treatment of Brazil after cozying up to China, the bolstering of US naval supremacy across two oceans by taking back the Panama Canal, and the joking-but-not-really offers to make Canada the 51st state and to buy Greenland to freeze China and Russia out of Arctic shipping and resources (to whit, the US is now collaborating with Finland to build a new fleet of icebreakers). Expect all of this to feature in the updated National Defense Strategy set to be published soon. Additionally, the US has been racking up wins in the Middle East and denting the ambitions of Russia and China to exert influence in central Asia – a geography that virtually every Great Power since Alexander the Great has understood to be vitally important. The Gaza peace is holding, despite wobbles over the weekend, and Iran has been cowed (for now). Oil continues to be priced in Dollars and the Israeli strike on Qatar seems to have sufficiently put the wind up other regional players to convince them to play ball with US foreign policy goals. Saudi Arabia is reportedly in talks for a new defense pact with the USA that is likely to be signed next month, the Abraham Accords are suddenly back in play and hints of trade détente with India might put the IMEEC corridor back on the horizon as a challenger to China’s One Belt One Road initiative. So, geopolitically the cards still look to be falling the way of the United States in many respects but the huge structural imbalances on trade remain. Before we get too carried away with buying the dip on the latest hopes of TACO perhaps it is worth remembering that the advocates of TACO theory are mostly the same people who told us that universal tariffs would never happen, yet here we are. To predict what is likely to be the direction of travel on trade there is only one indicator you need to watch, and that is the US goods trade balance. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 13:20
"I Want China To Thrive, But...": Trump Outlines Three Demands For Beijing Before High-Level Trade Talks President Trump spoke about his relationship with Xi and the possibility of trade deals with China during his meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this morning. "I expect we'll probably work out a very fair deal with President Xi of China," Trump said Monday, as he repeatedly returned to his dynamics with China. "They will threaten us with rare earths. I don't think they're threatening us too much right now, but they could do that," Trump said. "But I threaten them with something I think is much more powerful, and it's tariffs." Trump's words moved markets up and down (but not significantly)... 1145ET *TRUMP: CHINA MAY PAY 155% TARIFF IF NO DEAL BY NOV 1 - Stocks down 1155ET *TRUMP: WE'LL END UP WITH STRONG TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA - Stocks up 1215ET *TRUMP: COULD THREATEN CHINA WITH AIRPLANE EXPORT CONTROLS - Stocks down 1220ET *TRUMP: I WANT CHINA TO THRIVE - Stocks up This follows comments late Sunday by President Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One while en route from Florida to Washington, telling reporters that rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans would be key topics in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month. The goal of the meeting is to defuse the latest round of trade war tensions between the world's two largest economies, which have sent financial markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks. "I don't want them playing the rare earth game with us," Trump told reporters. Just days earlier, he warned that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 unless Beijing reverses its newly expanded export restrictions on rare-earth minerals and magnets. Goldman briefed clients on rare-earths and tariff threats on Sunday (read here). The president noted that he wants Beijing "to stop with the fentanyl," referring to his calls for the world's second-largest economy to halt the export of fentanyl precursor chemicals fueling America's drug crisis, which has led to 100,000 U.S. overdose deaths each year (read this). Some view the fentanyl trade as a form of "reverse opium war," or, as we detailed in a recent note, part of a multifaceted "total war" against the U.S. that leverages next-generation weapons, including synthetic narcotics (e.g., fentanyl and cannabinoids), bioweapons (e.g., Covid-19), psychological manipulation and influence (e.g., TikTok), and a broad arsenal of irregular warfare tools. Trump on what he wants from China: pic.twitter.com/wxGZFbuEkg October 20, 2025 Another key demand Trump laid out on Air Force One ahead of his meeting with Xi is that Beijing resume soybean purchases. He said these three topics were all "very, you know, normal things." Soybeans have been a big issue in recent weeks: China's Soybean Boycott - Key Questions Before Trump-Xi Meeting Stocks Dump As Trump Says China Committing "Economically Hostile Act" U.S. Soybean Exports Show Signs Of Recovery - Even As China Pivots Elsewhere U.S. Farmers Are Facing The Worst Economic Downturn In At Least 50 Years This week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with China's top trade negotiators in Malaysia, following a virtual meeting last Friday with Vice Premier He Lifeng that Chinese state media characterized as a "constructive exchange of views." The talks are seen as a key pathway to de-escalating tensions ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting. Bloomberg noted a regular press briefing in Beijing earlier today, where Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun was asked about Trump's three issues. Jiakun responded by saying that a "trade war does not serve the interests of either party, and both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit." Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 13:00
Zelensky Presses Plan For 25 Patriot Batteries Using Frozen Russian Funds President Zelensky got rejected on Tomahawks, but is now seeking to finalizing a deal to purchase 25 Patriot air defense systems, which the Ukrainian leader has described as a major step forward in strengthening the country's defenses against Russia's ongoing aerial assaults. Zelensky has told reporters in fresh remarks that the agreement envisions the delivery of multiple systems each year over a period of several years. Additionally, key European partners are expected to grant Ukraine priority access to Patriot systems when they come off the production line. Getty Images What's more is that Zelensky wants to use Russian funds to buy the air defense missiles. "Speaking in Kyiv after talks with Trump and American weapons-makers, Zelenskyy said Ukraine needed 25 US Patriot anti-missile batteries and that Russia's frozen assets in the west should be used to buy them," The Guardian reports. Ukraine's energy sites and electrical grid are getting pummeled by nightly Russian missile and drone assaults, which have resulted in forced rolling blackouts to keep the lights on as much as possible across the country, and all ahead of winter when resources tend to be at their most strained. At the moment, President Trump is being widely accused in mainstream media of essentially selling out the Ukrainians and siding with Putin related to potential future terms of a peace settlement: Behind the scenes, Trump had pushed Zelenskyy to give up swaths of territory to Russia, two people briefed on the discussion told Reuters. “Let it be cut the way it is,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “It’s cut up right now,” he said, adding that you can “leave it the way it is right now”. “They can negotiate something later on down the line,” he said. But for now, both sides of the conflict should “stop at the battle line – go home, stop fighting, stop killing people”. This would indeed give Russia effective control of some 20% of Ukraine, and the idea is that the battlelines would be 'frozen' as a more comprehensive deal is hammered out. It could be that Trump is finally getting realistic about the conflict - the Russians are not going to pack up and leave the battle lines, and territorial concessions are what will end the war, whether Kiev likes it or not. Q: Did you tell Zelenskyy he needed to cede all of the Donbas region to Russia? TRUMP: No, we never discussed it. We think that what they should do is just stop at the lines where they are. Q: What do you think should happen with the Donbas region? TRUMP: I think 78% of the… pic.twitter.com/y6y8wMz6LR October 20, 2025 Interestingly, Zelensky has also newly indicated he would be open to traveling to Budapest, where Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are expected to meet, in the scenario of trilateral or "shuttle diplomacy"; however, neither side has offered this to him. He and the Europeans fear getting 'cut out' or sidelined from Moscow-Washington agreements. So far, the biggest hawks who seek to prevent Zelensky from striking real compromise are in the European capitals. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 12:25
Speculative Bull Runs And The Value Of A Bearish Tilt Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about “TINA” (There Is No Alternative), and how “this time is different.” But that is what a speculative bull run looks and feels like. However, deep inside, you know there are risks. Valuations seem insane, credit spreads are historically tight, and sentiment and trading activity push more speculative extremes. Such is why, while considered “bearish,” we discuss risk management protocols. Why? Because such actions can protect you when it matters most. This is why I want to discuss a different approach to portfolio management with you today. Rather, how to think like a “bear,” so you see the risks of the speculative bull run. However, to act like a “bull” to capture the gains while available. But that is a difficult skill to master. Yes, thinking like a bear means you are aware of the exceedingly high levels of investor complacency, that valuations are stretched, and credit spreads have been crushed. Furthermore, margin debt is at very high levels, which provides the fuel for the eventual downturn. The problem with speculative bull runs is that they always end, and most of the time that ending is destructive. It is inherently logical that, as an investor, you want to move to protect your capital. The problem is that a bearish posture can lead to more severe underperformance because the market is in full speculative mode. Such is why, as an investor, it is logical to engage in bearish thinking, but must maintain a bullish bias amid a bull run. That means you must engage selectively, ride momentum where it leads, and keep disciplined exits. As noted, that is a difficult skill to master, but that is your edge: you see the warning signs, yet you don’t surrender to them too early. Howard Marks once argued that psychology overwhelmingly defines speculative bull runs. Price divorces value as crowds chase narratives. While the optimists win short-term, and the pessimists are mocked, Marks warns that during these periods, “value” takes a back seat and momentum becomes the dominant force. Marks underscored that manias shift the center of gravity from intrinsic worth to consensus euphoria. So when you think like a bear, your job is not to dogmatically short every overvalued name, but to structure your exposure to survive the mania’s reversal. However, marrying the two mindsets is challenging. While valuation models can anchor your long‑term expectations, near-term indicators like relative strength and momentum overlays can help navigate potentially dangerous waters. Like any good captain in uncharted waters, they follow the navigation but pay attention to their instincts. Why Fundamental Analysis Alone Fails in Mania Mode Under normal conditions, valuation metrics drive returns. You buy cheap (low P/S, high free cash flow yield, strong ROE) and wait for mean reversion. But in a speculative bull run, those rules often fail. As discussed recently, high volatility and “bad balance sheet” (poor fundamentals) are what investors are chasing. That is because the perceived risk of loss is extremely low, even though it is not. But that is what happens during market manias. As the crowd chases momentum and dismisses warnings, it pushes prices beyond what the underlying assets justify. This is what is called “valuation expansion.” As shown below, valuations, in the short term, reflect consumer (investor) sentiment. The chart shows the correlation between consumers’ expectations of higher prices in 12 months versus trailing 12-month valuations. Warren Buffett emphasized this point, stating that in speculative manias, the market becomes a voting machine first (popularity), then later a weighing machine (intrinsic value). In mania phases, price can outrun value over long periods before eventually reverting. Betting on the value convergence too early is dangerous. The reason, as John Maynard Keynes noted, is that.“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” As we discussed in a recent #BullBearReport on the AI Bubble: “The critical issue for investors, both then and now, was that many were “right” about the Dot.com bubble. However, they were so early in their warnings that they were wrong in their portfolios. The same warning applies currently. Is there a bubble in AI? Maybe. But, I would even suggest that it is pretty likely. As investors, we must realize that during the “inflation” phase of the bubble, there is a lot of money to be made, but the cycle will eventually end.” That’s why fighting parabolic moves can be so problematic. As Peter Lynch once stated: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” Thus, if you followed pure valuation discipline, you would often be sidelined during the high-return leg. Worse, you might have to “catch the knife” when the reversal begins. So you need to adapt your thinking to allow “bearishness” to control risk, but remain “bullish” to allow for the fact that momentum may temporarily drive prices higher.. One pitfall, however, is correlation. Historically non-correlated assets in speculative environments will move in tandem as investors look for the next speculative opportunity. Large-cap, high volatility, emerging market, international, gold, and bitcoin are all being chased higher in the current market. Each has its own narrative to justify its move higher, but buyers’ speculative fervor outstripping supply pushes prices further. In this environment, traditional diversification will likely fail to protect you in a downturn. Your differentiation comes from picking “which” levered momentum plays to hold and having triggers to exit them before they become toxic. The good news is that markets do not collapse at once, and you will not wake up one morning with stocks down 50%. Instead, the initial sharp move lower will signal that some market “dynamic” has shifted. No one will ever know what that will be in advance. However, it will be an event that causes investors to “revalue” their forward earnings estimates. If those estimates decline, the current market will be repriced for lower future earnings. As shown, there is a high correlation between the market and the 12-month rate of change in forward earnings estimates. The lesson is that valuation signals are essential but insufficient. You need momentum lenses, risk thresholds, and rules for scaling exposure and exiting when conditions shift. These give you a fighting chance in a speculative bull run. How to Manage Risk & Exposure During the Mania You have a framework now: think like a bear, engage like a bull, and overlay defenses. But how do you operationalize that in real portfolios? Below are the steps and principles from our approach and Mark’s wisdom. Establish trend break rules and define when the trend is broken. Use moving averages, momentum divergences, or multi‑timeframe trend signals. When a trend breaks, reduce exposure. Scale into exposure. Don’t go all in at once. Add when strength confirms. If the market corrects, your position is still manageable. Use stop zones and dynamic trailing thresholds. Set stop levels or trailing stops that adapt. Cut losers early. Lock in profits on winners when they begin to stall. Tier exposure by risk class. Have distinct layers: value core, momentum growth sleeve, and optional speculative layer. The speculative layer should be small, optional, and easy to cut. Monitor outside‑equity signals. Watch credit spreads, yield curves, bond markets, and sentiment extremes. Those often show cracks before equities do. Transition to a defensive posture incrementally. Move from “stop buying” to “reduce aggressive holdings” rather than all at once. You don’t have to hit complete defense unless the trends demand. Always maintain optionality. Hold dry powder. Leave capacity to enter new momentum trends or reallocate when the old ones shed. You want to be able to pivot. Accept uncertainty and probabilistic thinking. Risk and probability matter more than certainty. You can’t know exactly when the shift happens, but you can manage positioning around probabilities. Be unemotional and contrarian at extremes. Great investors are unemotional. In extremes, follow contrarian logic: reduce exposure when others lean heavily in. Resist being swept by sentiment. At mania highs, the crowd is usually at its most overextended. Review and adapt constantly. Conditions change. What looks good today may become a trap tomorrow. Stay vigilant. Reassess allocations regularly. By applying these rules, you can capture much of the upside of a speculative market while protecting against the inevitable reversion. A Roadmap: Where This Strategy Wins and When It Loses This hybrid approach is not perfect. There are strengths, and there are risks. But it’s more durable than rigid value or blind momentum. When it wins: During strong speculative rallies, where momentum dominates, investors can participate in the gains and avoid collapsing names. Technical signals can keep investors aligned with the market in environments where fundamentals are weak but liquidity and psychology are strong. When the trend eventually breaks, stop rules trigger exits, preserving investor capital. When it struggles: Momentum-based strategies will fail if the trend reverses abruptly and violently without warning. During choppy market phases, investors will likely suffer underperformance when the trend direction is unclear, as trend signals whipsaw. A pure value strategy will outperform in sustained value-driven rebounds (after deep crashes), where fundamentals again dominate. You mitigate those risks by: Staying light in speculative exposures Keeping a strong value core Loosening stop logic in volatile whipsaw phases Being ready to switch investment strategies when the cycle changes The path isn’t perfect, but it gives you flexibility. Think Like a Bear, Invest Like A Bull In today’s market environment, where risk is elevated, it can pay to “think like a bear, but invest like a bull.” As Howard Marks previously wrote about navigating speculative manias: “In hot times, the few who do remember the past are dismissed as relics of the old, lacking the ability to imagine the new. But it invariably turns out that there’s nothing new in terms of investor behavior. Mark Twain said that “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” and what rhymes are the important themes. The bottom line is that even though knowing financial history is important, requiring people to study it won’t make a big difference, because they’ll ignore its lessons. There’s a very strong tendency for people to believe in things which, if true, would make them rich. As Demosthenes said, “For that a man wishes, he generally believes to be true” Just like in the movies, where they show a person in a dilemma to have an angel on one side and a devil on the other, in the case of investing, investors have prudence and memory on one shoulder and greed on the other. Most of the time greed wins. As long as human nature is part of the investment environment, which it always will be, we’ll experience bubbles and crashes.“ There have only been a few points in history where the market is as overbought and extended, technically, as it is currently. Given that knowledge, investors must learn to live in tension. Think like a bear, so you’re ready for danger. Invest like a bull to participate in the current wealth-building opportunity. No rule says you can ONLY be a bull or a bear. It is okay, and logical, to be a bit of both. Critically, you must adopt probabilistic thinking and reject certainty. This combined approach gives you a fighting chance in environments where liquidity and psychology override fundamentals. It also preserves your survival when sentiment eventually reverses. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 12:10
OpenAI-Microsoft Friction Grows As ChatGPT App Growth Slows, Data Center Buildout Risks Overcapacity OpenAI's aggressive expansion of datacenters and infrastructure investments - along with its massive pipeline of future projects, fueled by what we call a "circle jerk" in AI vendor financing - has prompted warnings from Microsoft executives that meeting all of Sam Altman's infrastructure demands could generate overcapacity risks over data centers, according to The Information. Meanwhile, a separate TechCrunch report indicates that ChatGPT's mobile app growth may have already peaked. An OpenAI employee told The Information that the chatbot startup ($500 billion valuation) has budgeted approximately $450 billion in server expenses through 2030, with additional plans to rent servers from Microsoft and Oracle. OpenAI has made requests for increased computing capacity with Microsoft, which has sparked internal friction between both companies. Microsoft retains "first dibs" on supplying OpenAI data center capacity due to its $13 billion investment; however, practical constraints such as construction limits and power market woes have slowed its ability to scale. Microsoft executives, including CFO Amy Hood, cautioned against overbuilding servers that might not yield returns, while OpenAI CEO Altman pushed for faster expansion. The Information continued: There are usually two sides to most stories of marital friction. For OpenAI, its frustrations speak to the startup's seemingly bottomless computing needs, which have multiplied by the month. Over the past year, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman frequently pressed Microsoft to move more quickly in adding capacity to meet those needs. And for their part, Microsoft leaders told Altman the company simply couldn't supply that capacity as fast as he wanted due to fundamental constraints in the construction process, such as connecting new data centers to power. Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood and her staff told colleagues that catering to OpenAI's demands could put Microsoft at risk of overbuilding servers that might not produce a financial return, according to people involved in the discussions. Eventually, the two companies came to a resolution. In the summer of 2024, Altman and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella agreed it would be impossible for Microsoft to be the startup's sole cloud provider given OpenAI's recent growth, according to people who spoke to them. As a result, Microsoft began granting OpenAI waivers to strike deals with other cloud providers. Hood's overbuilding server risk comes around the time that new global daily active user (DAUs) data from third-party app intelligence firm Apptopia shows "ChatGPT's mobile app growth may have hit its peak," according to TechCrunch. In the U.S... And more evidence that ChatGPT's hype is fading. Fueling the data center bubble and breaking down how the giant "circle jerk" works, we exposed the infinite money glitch earlier this month. More complex via Bloomberg. Super impressive Capex by hyperscalers. And comes as: AI Is Now A Debt Bubble Too, Quietly Surpassing All Banks To Become The Largest Sector In The Market While the Bank of England warned earlier this month that AI-related valuations are "stretched." The irony of this warning is that central bankers very rarely make the right calls. This story builds on: Reddit Plunges On New Traffic Data Suggesting ChatGPT "Massively Reduced Citations" Did Goldman Just Spot 'Peak Reddit'? The bigger question is whether user fatigue with AI products is only now beginning to emerge. If that's the case, Hood's concerns about OpenAI's aggressive expansion may be justified, as Goldman's James Schneider told clients, "The net impact of our model updates extends the duration of peak datacenter occupancy well into 2026 (from the end of 2025 previously). After this point, we forecast a modest, but gradual loosening of supply/demand balance in 2027..." Schneider added more color: Reconciling our revised supply and demand updates, our baseline forecast for supply sufficiency stays largely unchanged in 2025 at 92% but increases by an average of 2% in 2026 to 92%, and 2% in 2027 to 92% - with a longer-term forecast supply sufficiency of 89% by 2030 - a 1% increase from our prior version of the supply/demand model. As a result, we now believe the peak of datacenter supply sufficiency is likely to be pushed out into 2026, from the end of 2025 as previously forecast. We believe the datacenter market's current supply/demand tightness will extend for longer, and our model continues to suggest that market occupancy will stabilize around average levels seen over the past 18 months. In summary, we believe the outlook for datacenter supply, demand, and their implied supply sufficiency remains relatively healthy for now. We continue to watch for incremental datapoints that could cause a shift in expectations - and we are closely watching for any changes (GPU demand, AI model efficiencies, announced incremental supply additions such as Stargate) that could significantly impact medium-term supply/demand balance. ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full global datacenter supply/demand report in the usual place. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:50
China GDP Grows At Slowest Pace In A Year Amid Crumbling Domestic Demand, Crashing Real Estate Market China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter as fragile domestic demand left it heavily reliant on the output of its exporting factories - which have sparked a global deflationary shockwave as China seeks to capture market share abroad through cutthroat price cuts sparking outrage among traditional Chinese clients - and stoking concerns about deepening structural imbalances. While the 4.8% GDP print for Q3 came fractionally above expectations and kept China on track to reach its target of roughly 5% this year, the economy's dependence on external demand at a time of mounting trade tensions with Washington raises questions over whether that pace can be sustained. It's why analysts said further policy support is urgently needed to maintain this stable trajectory and improve domestic demand. The rest of the Chinese data dump overnight was mixed: Retail Sales came in line with expectations at 3.0% YoY (exp. 3.0%) Industrial Output beat expectations, printing at 6.5% YoY (exp. 5.0%) Fixed Investment missed expectations, printing down 0.5% for th Jan-Sept period (exp. 0.1%) Some notes here from Goldman: Industrial production (IP): +6.5% yoy in September (consensus: +5.0% yoy), vs. +5.2% yoy in August. Note sequential figures are highly sensitive to the specific seasonal adjustment methodology (NBS estimates: +0.6% mom sa non-annualized in September, vs. +0.4% mom sa non-annualized in August; GS estimates: +1.4% mom sa non-annualized in September, vs. 0% mom sa non-annualized in August). Fixed asset investment (FAI): -0.5% ytd yoy in September (consensus: +0.1% ytd yoy), vs. +0.5% ytd yoy in August; September single-month by GS estimates: -6.7% yoy, vs. -6.8% yoy in August (sequential growth by GS estimates: -0.5% mom sa non-annualized in September, vs. -1.3% mom sa non-annualized in August). Retail sales: +3.0% yoy in September (consensus: +3.0% yoy), vs. +3.4% yoy in August (sequential growth by GS estimates: +0.2% mom sa non-annualized in September, vs. -0.3% mom sa non-annualized in August). Services industry output index: +5.6% yoy in September, vs. +5.6% yoy in August (sequential growth by GS estimates: +0.7% mom sa non-annualized in September, vs. +0.4% mom sa non-annualized in August). Main points: 1. Based on NBS estimates, China’s real GDP growth moderated to 4.8% yoy in Q3 from 5.2% yoy in Q2, marginally above market consensus (4.7% yoy) on the back of US tariff impact gradually kicking in, fading effectiveness of some existing easing measures (e.g., the government-subsidized consumer goods trade-in program) and more adverse than usual weather conditions (mainly in July-August). In sequential terms, NBS estimated that real GDP growth edged up to 1.1% qoq sa non-annualized in Q3 from the downwardly revised 1.0% qoq sa non-annualized in Q2. NBS raised its sequential growth estimate slightly for Q3 2024 (to 1.5% qoq non-annualized from 1.3% qoq non-annualized previously), but lowered it slightly for Q4 2024 (to 1.5% qoq annualized from 1.6% qoq non-annualized previously). The official sequential GDP growth of 4.5% qoq annualized (implied by the 1.1% qoq non-annualized growth) is slightly below Goldman's Current Activity Indicator (CAI) tracking of around 5.2% annualized growth in Q3. Year-on-year nominal GDP growth declined to 3.7% in Q3 from 3.9% in Q2 and GDP deflator has been negative for 10 quarters in a row. 2. Industrial production (IP) growth rose to 6.5% yoy in September from 5.2% yoy in August thanks partly to the stronger-than-expected exports and an acceleration in auto output growth. On a sequential basis after seasonal adjustments, IP gained 1.4% mom non-annualized in September (vs. 0% mom non-annualized in August; Exhibit 1). By industry, the August-to-September acceleration in year-on-year IP growth was led by faster output growth in auto, computer and chemicals industries, more than offsetting slower output growth in the ferrous metal smelting industry (Exhibit 2). Among major industrial products (different from by-industry breakdown), auto output growth increased to +13.7% yoy in September from +10.5% yoy in August; computer and industrial robot output growth rose to -5.8% yoy and +28.3% yoy, respectively, in September from -13.1% yoy and +14.4% yoy in August. By comparison, year-on-year growth in power generation and cement output slowed to +1.5% and -8.6%, respectively, in September from +1.6% and -6.2% in August. Crude steel output growth dropped to -4.6% yoy in September from -0.7% yoy in August, and smartphone output growth also eased to +0.1% yoy from +3.2% yoy. 3. Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth remained depressed at -6.7% yoy in September (vs. -6.8% yoy in August) on a single month basis. The prolonged property downturn and the ongoing "anti-involution" policies (which should constrain manufacturing investment) remained a drag, while infrastructure investment improved sequentially (+6.4% mom sa non-annualized), reflecting better weather conditions than in July-August and an acceleration in government spending (Exhibit 3). Specifically, year-on-year growth in manufacturing, infrastructure and property investment registered at -1.8%, -8.2% and -21.1% in September, respectively, from -2.0%, -8.3% and -19.4% in August. Year-on-year contraction in “other” investment (i.e., services and agriculture-related investment) narrowed to -1.9% in September from -3.1% in August, thanks entirely to a low base. 4. Nominal retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% yoy in September from 3.4% yoy in August, mainly dragged by weaker offline goods sales and restaurant revenue sales, year-on-year growth of which declined to 1.8% and 0.9% in September from 2.3% and 2.1% in August. By comparison, online goods growth edged up to 7.3% yoy in September from 7.2% yoy in August. Year-on-year growth in home appliance sales value dropped significantly to 3.3% in September from 14.3% in August, reflecting both a high base and fading effectiveness of the ongoing consumer goods trade-in program. However, year-on-year growth in auto and communication equipment sales value rose to 1.6% and 16.2% in September, respectively, from 0.8% and 7.3% in August (Exhibit 4). On a sequential basis, we estimate retail sales value rose 0.2% mom sa non-annualized in September (vs. -0.3% mom sa non-annualized in August). 5. Year-on-year growth in the Services Industry Output Index -- which is on a real basis and tracks tertiary GDP growth closely (57% of China's economy as of 2024) – fared better than retail sales growth and remained unchanged from August at 5.6% yoy in September. In sequential terms, the Services Industry Output Index rose 0.7% mom sa non-annualized in September (vs. +0.4% mom sa non-annualized in August). 6. Property market weakness persisted in September, with year-on-year contraction in most property activity indicator . Specifically, year-on-year growth of new home starts and under construction remained depressed in September, registering -14.4% and -9.4%, respectively (vs. -20.3% and -9.3% in August), while new home completions growth improved to +1.5% yoy from -21.5% yoy. Property sales declined by 10.5% yoy in volume (floor space) terms and 11.8% yoy in value terms in September (vs. -10.3% yoy and -13.8% yoy, respectively, in August). Our high-frequency trackers suggest home transactions in large cities stayed tepid as of mid-October. Meanwhile, NBS and private sector data both showed continued downward pressure on home prices in September. 7. Regarding the labor market, the nationwide unemployment rate and the 31-city metric (not seasonally adjusted) both inched down to 5.2% in September from 5.3% in August. After seasonal adjustment, these two unemployment rate metrics continued to rise modestly in September. The unemployment rate for migrant workers (without local Hukou) was unchanged at 5.1% from August to September after seasonal adjustments. Following the NBS definition revisions (excluding students in schools) in January 2024, the release of youth unemployment rate data has been delayed by around three days vs. general labor market statistics. The latest data available suggests the unemployment rate of the 16-24 age group edged up to 18.9% in August from 17.8% in July, marginally above its recent peak of 18.8% in last August, given the 12.2 million college graduates this year (vs. 11.8 million in 2024). Goldman expects the youth unemployment rate to decline in coming months on seasonal factors, but caution it would be higher than year-ago levels due to weak domestic demand. According to Goldman, despite recent developments in US-China tensions, we believe China's full-year growth target remains largely on track, given that real GDP grew 5.2% yoy during the first three quarters of this year and exports (driven by tariff frontrunning) remain resilient. Additionally, Goldman does not think policymakers see an immediate need to launch broad-based, significant stimulus in the near-term, even though incremental and targeted easing appears necessary in coming quarters to ensure stable growth and employment into next year. The majority of the growth impulse of recent easing measures -- including the nationwide childbirth subsidies, the RMB500bn policy bank new financing instrument, and the use of an RMB500bn unspent local government bond issuance quota accumulated from previous years – will likely be concentrated in late 2025 or early 2026. That's the optimistic view. A rather more realistic one comes from Reuters which writes that Beijing may be using the headline "resilience" in growth as a show of strength in talks between its vice premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia in coming days and a potential meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea later. This downbeat view is reinforced by the latest observations from Bloomberg's Econ team which overnight wrote that China's 7% investment slump shows deep demand weakness. According to a note published by BBG overnight, China’s latest data dump reassures near-term growth but underscores long-term challenges. Third-quarter GDP growth of 4.8% means the economy only needs to clear a low bar of 4.5% in 4Q to meet the 5% full-year target, helped by a surge in production. Yet the imbalance between supply and demand has aggravated. Consumption remains weak, and investment - including public investment - has emerged as the weakest link. That's because Bloomberg Economics calculates that fixed-asset investment contracted for the fourth month in a row, by as much as 7% in September. The same supply-demand imbalance is evident in the month-on-month comparison. Industrial production rose 0.64% — the highest in seven months and in line with the pre-pandemic trend - while retail sales fell 0.18%, the third monthly contraction in four months. As shown below, the collapse in fixed-asset investment has become became the biggest drag on the economy, as government-led investment lost steam. Investment has deteriorated across the board, in both the private and public sectors. The latter is particularly concerning, as government-led investment has been the primary driver of investment over the past few years. BBG calculates that government-led investment declined year-on-year through 3Q, including an 8% drop in September. Slowing consumption is another drag on the economy. BBG estimates that retail sales growth fell below the pre-stimulus trend for the first time in September since the government ramped up stimulus in September 2024. In September, catering revenue rose only 0.9% year on year, the same as in June — the lowest growth rate since 2023. This reflected cautious consumption of households — as they spent less on unnecessary items. In addition, home appliance sales have slowed rapidly, indicating that the boost from government subsidies is fading. Sales in September increased 3.3% from a year earlier, far lower than that in August (14.3%) or July (28.7%). Meanwhile, the only silver lining - the ongoing export strength, which itself is a function of the trade war - belies weakness on home turf, where lacklustre demand gives manufacturers no choice but to fight price wars in foreign markets, and compromise on their profitability. Jeremy Fang, a sales officer at a Chinese aluminium products maker, says his firm lost 20% of revenue as higher sales in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, Turkey and the Middle East failed to fully offset an 80%-90% order plunge in the US. Fang said he is learning Spanish to get ahead of his Chinese competitors rushing to non-U.S. markets and is now traveling abroad twice more often than he did last year. But that extra effort isn’t enough. "You have to be ruthlessly competitive on price," Fang said. "If your price is $100 and the customer starts bargaining, it's better to drop $10-$20 and take the order. You can't hesitate." This also explains why despite the surging tariffs, goods increases on US imports remains very tame. This intense competition among Chinese exporters feeds further weakness at home, with many having to cut wages and even jobs to stay in the race. As noted above, while industrial output grew to a three-month high of 6.5% year-on-year in September, beating forecasts, retail sales slowed to a 10-month low of 3.0%. Further hitting consumers by making them feel less wealthy, data also showed new home prices falling at their fastest pace in 11 months in September. Investment in the crisis-hit property sector fell 13.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which is devastating for a country where some 55% of household net worth - among the highest in the world - is found in real estate. "China’s growth is becoming increasingly dependent on exports, which are offsetting a slowdown in domestic demand," said Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard. "This pattern of development is not sustainable, and so growth is at risk of slowing further over the medium-term unless the authorities take much more proactive steps to support consumer spending." Such calls for structural measures that make China's economy more reliant on household consumption have grown louder ahead of this week's key Communist Party meeting, where its elites will discuss the country's next five-year development plan (see "Trader's Guide To Biggest China Political Meeting Starting Monday"). But while the meeting is likely to result in pledges to boost domestic demand, it will also emphasize breaking through technological frontiers and upgrading the country's sprawling industrial complex as a national security priority. This could keep the flow of economic resources tilted primarily towards manufacturers at the expense of households. A change in its growth model would make China a bigger contributor to global demand and might help tone down trade tensions. But there is no sign that Beijing is willing to relent on the industrial front as competition with the U.S. intensifies. So far, it has been successful in diversifying away from U.S. markets. Its U.S. export sales were down 27% year-on-year last month, but shipments to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6% and 56.4%, respectively. And China is using its near-monopoly position in the production of rare earths as leverage to try to extract more concessions from Washington. This prompted renewed threats from Trump to add another 100 percentage points to tariffs on imports from China, but also messages from Washington that the two sides are willing to lower the temperature. Triple-digit tariffs would effectively place a painful trade embargo on the world's two largest economies, but Beijing might feel it can bear the pain for longer. "Relatively speaking, China is in a better position than the U.S.," said Yuan Yuwei, hedge fund manager at Water Wisdom Asset Management. "At worst, ordinary people may tighten their belts and some workers are left idle. But in the U.S., if you cut 10-20% of worker's salary, people go out into the street to protest. China can suffer for longer than the U.S." If policymakers feel the economy is veering off target in the fourth quarter, one option is to speed up infrastructure investment given that they are currently frontloading 2026 debt issuance. After all, fixed-asset investment shrank 0.5% in January-September from a year earlier, suggesting room for improvement in that area. Some analysts believe Beijing doesn't need more stimulus measures this year. But others still see a strong case to offer support to underperforming sectors. "With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency," said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING. "But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed." Sure enough, China's consumer confidence never managed to recovery after the covid crash, suggesting that behind the cheerful rhetoric, the mood on the ground in China is cataclysmic and that contrary to soundbites, should Trump continue to push and prod China in the ongoing trade war, he may well get what he wants. Looking ahead, Goldman writes that the divergent supply and demand trends underscore the need for the government to find effective ways to support growth, even if the economy does not require an additional boost in 4Q. The bank sees less monetary easing in 4Q, with only one possible cut in either the policy rate or the reserve requirement ratio, unlike earlier expectation of moves on both fronts. On the fiscal front, the focus will likely be on implementation and early groundwork for 2026, such as front-loading bond issuance and putting funds in place for projects. The sharp decline in government investment highlights the urgency of identifying more viable investment projects and social programs to spur consumption. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:20
Supreme Court Will Decide Whether Drug Users Can Possess Guns The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to consider whether people who use illegal drugs should also be allowed to possess a firearm. The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times The justices granted the petition in the United States v. Hemani without comment in an unsigned order, with no justices dissenting. The case involves Ali Danial Hemani - a dual citizen of the United Sates and Pakistan, according to the government's petition which describes him as "a drug dealer who uses illegal drugs." The FBI obtained a search warrant to raid his home, where they found a Glock 9mm pistol, 60 grams of marijuana, and 4.7 grams of cocaine. As the case worked its way through the system, the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled that the Second Amendment prevents Congress from restricting one's right to possess firearms even if they're habitual users of illegal drugs. "The court’s decision invalidates an important federal statute in the vast majority of its applications and exacerbates a multi-sided circuit conflict. This Court should grant the petition for a writ of certiorari and reverse," reads the petition which was submitted at the urging of the Trump administration. "This is the archetypal case for this Court’s review," wrote Solicitor General D. John Sauer in court filings. Currently federal law prohibits anyone "who is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance" from possessing a firearm - with violations carrying up to 10 years in prison. In a recent opinion, Obama-appointee US Circuit Judge Stephen Higginson noted that judges are adjudicating such cases "daily across the country." A jury convicted Hunter Biden on the charge last year for possessing a Colt Cobra revolver in 2018 while being addicted to crack cocaine. He had argued it violated the Second Amendment until his father, then-President Biden, pardoned him. -The Hill Whatever the Supreme Court decides has the potential to radically upend federal and state measures that the DOJ says have been passed in more than 30 states. Meanwhile, lower court judges have wrestled over the federal crime's constitutionality in the wake of the Supreme Court's 2022 expansion of gun rights, which requires that gun control measures be consistent with the nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen (2022), the Supreme Court struck down New York’s strict concealed-carry licensing law and established a new test for evaluating gun regulations. The Court ruled that modern firearm restrictions are constitutional only if they are consistent with the nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation, effectively requiring judges to compare today’s laws to those in place during the founding era. Since that landmark decision, lower court judges have been split on the federal crime’s constitutionality in the wake of this expanded interpretation of the Second Amendment. Some courts have upheld the statute, reasoning that longstanding prohibitions on firearm possession by certain groups - such as felons or individuals under restraining orders - fit within the nation’s historical framework of regulating dangerous persons. Others, however, have struck it down in specific contexts, finding insufficient historical analogues to justify modern restrictions. Last year, the court ruled that a neighboring provision criminalizing gun possession for people under domestic violence restraining orders was valid. Meanwhile, the Supremes will also decide the constitutionality of Hawaii's law banning concealed carry on private property without the owner's express permission. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:05
Chipmaker Nexperia's China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times, China’s arm of chipmaker Nexperia has instructed employees to disregard directives from its Dutch headquarters, marking an escalation in a spiraling cross-border confrontation over control of the company that has already raised alarm bells across the global automotive and electronics supply chain. In an internal memo published on Oct. 19 on its official WeChat account over the weekend, Nexperia China told staff that they are to follow orders only from the domestic management team and have the “right to refuse execution” of any external instructions—even if delivered through official corporate communications platforms such as Outlook or Microsoft Teams—unless approved by a China-based legal representative. The notice, signed by multiple Chinese subsidiaries, said that Nexperia’s China operations are legally independent under Chinese corporate law and will continue to operate “as a Chinese enterprise,” with full decision-making authority remaining inside China. It also stated that all salaries, bonuses, and benefits would be paid exclusively by Nexperia China, not by the Netherlands-based parent. The memo followed an extraordinary intervention by the Dutch government, which earlier this month imposed direct supervision over Nexperia’s global management, citing “serious governance shortcomings” and fears that critical chipmaking capabilities could be transferred to Chinese ownership. The move was made under the rarely used Cold War-era Goods Availability Act, marking the first such action in Dutch industrial history. As part of the move, Dutch authorities suspended Nexperia CEO Zhang Xuezheng—founder of Wingtech Technology, the China-based company that owns Nexperia—and installed an interim European leadership. The decision drew immediate condemnation from Beijing and Wingtech, which accused The Hague of “discriminatory treatment” and “excessive intervention based on geopolitical bias.” At the same time, China’s Ministry of Commerce blocked shipments of Nexperia’s finished goods and sub-assemblies from Chinese factories, effectively halting exports to Europe. With up to 80 percent of Nexperia’s final packaging and assembly located in mainland China, the block has deepened a split in corporate command. Nexperia Netherlands condemned the Chinese memo in a statement to several media outlets, accusing its ousted CEO of spreading “falsehoods” that the Dutch headquarters had abandoned its China business or ceded control. “We regret that certain individuals ... see the need to spread these falsehoods, and remain hopeful to come to a solution that allows Nexperia to continue serving its customers and partners, and one that brings stability for its employees,” the company stated. The Epoch Times reached out to Nexperia for comment and additional details of its response to the memo from the Chinese arm, but did not receive a response by publication time. Industry groups across Europe and the United States have warned that the dispute could trigger supply chain shockwaves within weeks. Nexperia produces mature-node semiconductors used across most modern vehicles—components that, although not advanced, are manufactured in the tens of millions. “Without these chips, European automotive suppliers cannot build the parts and components needed to supply vehicle manufacturers,” the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said in an Oct. 16 note. In Washington, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation issued a similar alert. “If the shipment of automotive chips doesn’t resume–quickly–it’s going to disrupt auto production in the U.S. and many other countries and have a spillover effect in other industries,” said the group’s CEO, John Bozzella. “It’s that significant.” Volkswagen and BMW have confirmed they are conducting contingency planning. While neither has yet paused assembly lines, both said current chip inventories would only cover a limited window. Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart and the European Commission in the coming days to discuss the dispute. “Europe would have been 100 percent dependent for these sort of chips, in terms of knowledge, expertise and capacity, on foreign countries,” Karremans said in an interview with Dutch television show Buitenhof on Oct. 19, referring to the imperative behind the Dutch government’s decision to seize control of Nexperia. The dispute also reflects a wider battle over chips between China and the West. The United States has blacklisted Nexperia’s parent company, Wingtech, and pushed allies such as the Netherlands to tighten export controls, while Beijing has responded with its own curbs—turning semiconductor companies into geopolitical battlegrounds. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 10:50
Was The CIA Misleading Witkoff & Kushner On Key Intel About Hamas During Critical Phase Of Peace-Talks Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge, A fascinating hour-long interview with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as they outline the backstory to the Israel-Hamas peace agreement in Gaza. During a segment (prompted below) Witkoff and Kushner are outlining the step-by-step process as they engaged the leaders of Qatar, Turkey and Egypt. Witkoff reveals how the CIA was briefing them both, multiple times a day, and the briefing itself was exactly the opposite of what Emir of Qatar and Presidents of Turkey and Egypt were telling them. The CIA intelligence was the exact opposite of reality. WATCH: What they are describing is EXACTLY why we outlined how ‘outside govt’ emissaries were/are vitally necessary to work around the control agenda of the U.S. Intelligence Community. This small example is stunning in magnitude when considered around the importance of the moment. On a positive note, with Witkoff making this stunning public statement, we can now add a major datapoint to President Trump’s reference of NOT TRUSTING the CIA. Combined with the previous assertions of Marco Rubio and Tulsi Gabbard on essentially the same level of outlook, this example of the CIA getting it wrong (misleading the administration) has long-range ramifications beyond the Hamas example. With this backdrop for reference, surely now we can have an optimistic sense that President Trump doesn’t trust the CIA intelligence on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 10:20
Key Events This Week: CPI; Fed Blackout Joins Government Blackout As futures indicate this morning, and as DB's Jim Reid writes overnight, the mood music on tariffs has sounded much more positive in recent days. As it stands, President Trump has threatened additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1, but Treasury Secretary Bessent said that he’d be meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in person this week. And on Friday, President Trump said he thought that a meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea would still go ahead, and said “I think we’re getting along with China”. So that’s added to investor expectations that those 100% tariffs won’t come into force, and if we look at Polymarket, it’s currently pointing to just a 7% chance they come into effect by November 1. As all that’s happening, we still have the ongoing government shutdown in the US, which is now on day 20. Bear in mind that only two shutdowns have been longer than this one, which were the 35-day shutdown in 2018-19, and the 21-day shutdown in 1995-96. And as it stands, there’s still no sign of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would see the government re-open. In terms of the market implications, this is still affecting the flow of economic data, so we’re not getting regular releases like the weekly initial jobless claims, and we don’t have the payrolls number for September either. However, this week we will get the postponed CPI release for September, which is coming out on Friday, just in time for the FOMC meeting the week after. In terms of what to expect, DB's economists are looking for headline CPI to come in at a monthly +0.42% pace, which would push up the year-on-year rate to +3.1%, and be the strongest monthly print since January. Meanwhile for core CPI, they expect that to come in at +0.32%, with the year-on-year print remaining at +3.1%. Within the data, they’re still looking for signs of tariff impacts in core goods, with a focus on categories like apparel and new vehicles that haven’t yet seen a meaningful tariff pass-through. Otherwise this week, another key data highlight will be the October flash PMIs on Friday, which will give us an initial indication as to how the global economy has fared at the start of Q4. We also have a few CPI prints elsewhere, including from Japan, the UK and Canada. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period. On the earnings side, we’ve got more than 80 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week - accounting for some 20% of S&P market cap - including Tesla and Netflix, along with more than 80 from the STOXX 600, including Barclays, NatWest and SAP. Here is a day day-by-day calendar of events Monday October 20 Data: Germany September PPI, Italy August current account balance, Eurozone August construction output, Canada September industrial and raw materials price index Central banks: ECB's Schnabel, Nagel and Vujcic speak, BoC Q3 business outlook survey Earnings: Zions Bancorp Other: China's Fourth Plenum (through October 23rd) Tuesday October 21 Data: US October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, UK September public finances, Canada September CPI Central banks: ECB's Lagarde, Escriva, Nagel, Lane and Kocher speak Earnings: Western Alliance Bancorp, Netflix, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, RTX, Texas Instruments, Capital One Financial, Lockheed Martin, 3M, General Motors Wednesday October 22 Data: UK September CPI, RPI, PPI, August house price index, Japan September trade balance Central banks: ECB's Lagarde and de Guindos speak Earnings: Tesla, SAP, IBM, Thermo Fisher Scientific, AT&T, UniCredit, Barclays, Hilton, Heineken, Southwest Airlines, Alcoa Auctions: US 20-yr Bond Thursday October 23 Data: US September existing home sales, October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity, France October business confidence, Eurozone October consumer confidence, Canada August retail sales Central banks: ECB's Lane speaks Earnings: T-Mobile US, Blackstone, Intel, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Newmont, Lloyds, Ford Motor Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS Other: European Council summit of EU leaders in Brussels Friday October 24 Data: Global October flash PMIs, US September CPI, October Kansas City Fed services activity, UK October GfK consumer confidence, September retail sales, Japan September national CPI, France October consumer confidence, Sweden September PPI Central banks: ECB's Nagel, Cipollone and Villeroy speak Earnings: Procter & Gamble, Sanofi, NatWest, Porsche Other: Moody’s review France’s credit rating, Ireland presidential election Looking at just the US, Goldman writes that the September CPI report—originally scheduled for release last week—will be released on Friday. The new home sales report on Thursday will be postponed if the federal government shutdown continues until then. The Department of Labor will also postpone the official release of the jobless claims report if the government shutdown continues through Thursday, but preliminary state-level claims data will likely be available. There are no speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC’s blackout period. Monday, October 20 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Tuesday, October 21 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing index, October (last -12.3) Wednesday, October 22 There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Thursday, October 23 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 18 (GS 225k, consensus 226k, GS estimate of last 219k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 11 (GS estimate of last 1,912k): We forecast that initial jobless claims edged up to 225k in the week ended October 18th. Using state-level data from the Department of Labor (DOL), we now estimate that initial claims declined to 219k in the week ended October 11th (with a likely range between 216k and 222k; vs. our estimate of 217k on Thursday) reflecting new data uploaded by Massachusetts and Tennessee on Friday that were missing in DOL’s Thursday upload. We estimate that continuing claims declined to 1,912k in the week ended October 4th (with a likely range between 1,903k and 1,920k; vs. our previous estimate of 1,917k), also reflecting new data uploaded by Massachusetts and Tennessee. 10:00 AM Existing home sales, September (GS -1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last -0.2%) 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, October (last +4) Friday, October 24 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), September (GS +0.33%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Core CPI (MoM), September (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); CPI (YoY), September (GS +3.02%, consensus +3.1%, last +2.92%); Core CPI (YoY), September (GS +3.05%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.11%): We estimate a 0.25% increase in September core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 3.1% on a rounded basis. Our forecast reflects unchanged used car prices reflecting the signal from auction prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.2%) reflecting an increase in dealer incentives, and an increase in car insurance prices (+0.3%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We forecast a decline in airfares in September (-1.5%), reflecting a fading boost from seasonal distortions and a decline in underlying airfares based on our equity analysts’ tracking of online price data. We have penciled in upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as communication, household furnishings, and recreation) worth +0.07pp on core inflation. We expect moderation in the shelter components on net after a jump in the prior month (primary rent +0.25% in September vs. +0.30% in August; OER +0.26% vs. +0.38%). We estimate a 0.33% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food (+0.25%) and energy (+1.5%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 0.21% increase in core PCE in September. We will update our core PCE forecast after the CPI is released. 08:30 AM New home sales, September (GS -11.6%, consensus -11.6%, last +20.5%) 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, October final (consensus 51.8, last 52.0): S&P Global US services PMI, October final (consensus 53.5, last 54.2) 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October final (GS 54.0, consensus 55.0, last 55.0): University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, October final (GS 3.8%, last 3.7%) Source: DB, Goldman Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 10:10
White House's Hassett Says Shutdown Could End This Week, Threatens "Stronger Measures" If Democrats Balk With the government shutdown in its third week, White House's top economic advisor Kevin Hassett said on Monday that the government shutdown is "likely to end sometime this week," and that if it does not, the Trump administration may impose "stronger measures" to try and force Democrats to cooperate. Hassett told CNBC that he's heard from the Senate that Democrats thought it would be "bad optics" to vote to reopen the government before this weekend's nationwide "No Kings" protest. "Now there’s a shot that this week, things will come together, and very quickly," he said. "The moderate Democrats will move forward and get us an open government, at which point we could negotiate whatever policies they want to negotiate with regular order." "I think the Schumer shutdown is likely to end sometime this week," he said, referring to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who Republicans have blamed for letting the government shut down. If it doesn't reopen, "I think that the White House is going to have to look very closely, along with [White House budget chief Russell] Vought, at stronger measures that we could take to bring them to the table," Hassett continued - suggesting that Democrats are simply looking for a politically opportune time to fold. Watch: HASSETT: There's cracks in the Schumer armor. I think the Schumer Shutdown is likely to end sometime this week. But I can tell you that if it doesn't... the White House is gonna have to look very closely... at stronger measures that we can take to bring them to the table. pic.twitter.com/Z13tK3nyfd October 20, 2025 Hassett's comments added to the market's Monday morning momentum, and sent Polymarket betters into a frenzy as to when the shutdown will end. Hassett's comments aside, the shutdown is currently in day 20 - with no obvious end in sight. The top issue is Affordable Care Act subsidies - which Democrats are demanding an extension of a Biden-era pandemic ACA expansion set to expire at the end of the year - arguing that failing to do so would increase healthcare costs for families. That said, maintaining the tax credit carries a big price tag - as permanently expanding the most generous benefits would increase the deficit by $350 billion from 2026 - 2035, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Lawmakers don't have much time, however, as around a dozen states have published ACA heal insurance prices for 2026 which show many premiums skyrocketing unless Congress extends. By next week, dozens of other states will reveal pricing for next year. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 09:55
Judge Who Approved Mar-a-Lago Raid Once Shared Office With Jeffrey Epstein Authored by Ken Silva via HeadlineUSA (emphasis ours), U.S. Judge Bruce Reinhart, who issued the warrant for the FBI’s raid on President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in 2022, once shared office space with deceased sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, according to newly revealed records. Bruce Reinhart / IMAGE: @mazemoore Some of Judge Reinhart’s links to Epstein have long been known. Reinhart worked for the U.S. Attorney’s Office Southern District of Florida while that branch was prosecuting Epstein for sex crimes in the mid-2000s, and he left that office to work for Epstein in January 2008—more than six months before the Justice Department’s plea deal with Epstein was finalized. But that’s not all. On Friday, the House Oversight Committee released a transcript of its interview with former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida Alex Acosta, who signed off on the Epstein plea deal. That transcript reveals that Judge Reinhart not only worked as an attorney for Epstein; he shared office with the deceased sex trafficker. 🚨NEW: It's been known for years that U.S. Judge Bruce Reinhart, who issued the warrant for the FBI’s raid on President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in 2022, once worked for Jeffrey Epstein -- joining his legal team after serving at the U.S. Attorney's Office that prosecuted… pic.twitter.com/67nQdIIRWv October 18, 2025 Indeed, Reinhart incorporated his private practice, Bruce E. Reinhart P.A., on Oct. 23, 2007, listing his address at 250 Australian Ave. South, Suite 1400, West Palm Beach, Florida. Exactly one week later, Epstein incorporated an organization called the Florida Science Foundation at the same address, which is also the office of his former lead attorney, Jack Goldberger. Epstein would go on to work at the Florida Science Foundation on work-release while serving his 13-month sentence in 2008 and 2009—what’s widely been described as a “sweetheart” plea deal—for procuring a child for prostitution. When House Oversight Committee investigators presented this evidence to Acosta last month, he expressed surprise. “So you’ve just disclosed something that I did not know,” Acosta said. “I knew that he had left to work for Epstein while this case was pending. I did not know that he is the one that filed these articles of incorporation.” Acosta also said it was unethical for Reinhart to have incorporated his private law practice while he was still working for the DOJ. Most of the House Oversight Committee’s interview with Acosta focused on the plea deal his office granted Epstein. Acosta served as Trump’s Labor Secretary from 2017 to 2019, resigning after his role in the plea deal was thrust back into the public spotlight when Epstein was arrested again in July 2019. Acosta has defended the plea deal on the grounds that it did result in Epstein’s incarceration and registration as a sex offender. By far the biggest revelation from the new Acosta interview: The judge who approved the Mar-a-Lago raid once shared office space with Epstein. https://t.co/WRX1c1wss1 pic.twitter.com/6b6En5VlMo October 18, 2025 During his interview with the House Oversight Committee, he said taking Epstein to trial would’ve been a “crapshoot.” He also blamed Epstein’s work-release on local authorities. “He obtained work release from the Palm Beach sheriff under a factual situation that’s sketchy at best,” Acosta said. “I don’t remember all the details, but I think his work release was at an institution that had just been incorporated, or something along those lines. That was the Palm Beach sheriff’s decision.” Ken Silva is the editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 09:40
Don Lemon Urges 'Black And Brown' Americans To Arm Themselves Against ICE Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA, Disgraced former CNN host Don Lemon urged “black” and “brown” Americans on Wednesday to take up arms, warning they could be swept up in President Donald Trump’s ICE operations. Don Lemon / IMAGE: CNN via YouTube He made the incendiary claim during a podcast interview with Wajahat Ali, citing the small number of cases involving U.S. citizens being briefly detained by ICE in cities like Chicago. “I just want to be very clear here. I am not condoning or promoting violence,” Lemon began, before invoking the Second Amendment. “Here’s what I’m saying to black and brown people, to Mexican people, to people who are here legally and who can go and buy a gun legally and have a license to carry legally: Go do it! Why not? Go do it! It is your Second Amendment right.” Don Lemon instructs illegal aliens "to go out and get a gun because when you have people knocking on your door and taking you away, isn't that what the second amendment was written for?" The left is trying to get ICE agents killed.pic.twitter.com/B1lMqM2CqS October 16, 2025 Lemon then urged “black households,” “Indian Americans,” “Mexican Americans,” and, as he put it, “whatever you are,” to purchase firearms legally, claiming the show of force could discourage the Trump administration from conducting immigration raids. “Get a license to carry legally,” he said. “Because when you have people knocking on your door and taking you away without due process as a citizen, isn’t that what the Second Amendment was written for?” He continued, “Go back and read what the Second Amendment says. And perhaps it will knock some sense … in the heads of these people who are saying: ‘Well, it’s all great. I don’t believe they’re doing it without due process. They’re asking people for papers. They’re not really beating people up. These people are doing things that are illegal.’” Lemon’s comments come amid the legacy media’s fixation on rare cases of American citizens briefly detained during ICE raids, most of which are quickly clarified or resolved. White House border czar Tom Homan has repeatedly clarified that ICE conducts only targeted operations focused on individuals with existing deportation orders. However, illegal aliens without such orders, as well as citizens lacking proper identification, may be temporarily detained if swept up during these raids. When reached by email, Lemon could not provide evidence of any widespread targeting of U.S. citizens by ICE by the time of publication. Watch Lemon’s full remarks below: Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 09:00
Futures Rise As Trade, Credit Fears Fade Ahead Of Earnings Deluge US equity futures are higher led by small caps, with sentiment TACOed for a second consecutive weekend thanks to Trump’s comments that the US will “be fine” with China ahead of trade talks between the two sides. It’s going to be a busy week for earnings, with Tesla, Netflix and General Motors among companies reporting. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 0.3%, with Nasdaq futures up 0.4%. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are all higher; Tesla climbed in pre-market trading ahead of its report Wednesday, the first from the Magnificent Seven cohort of big-tech companies. There are also notable moves higher in Fins as credit concerns subside. Treasuries, which rallied last week amid trade-war and credit quality jitters, are steady today around 4.00% on the 10Y. The yield curve is flatter with 2Y and 5Y yield higher, while 10Y yields are mostly unchanged at 4.00%. Ahead of a resumption in US/China talks this week in Malaysia, Trump said rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans are the US’s top issues with China, and told Fox News that his threatened 100% tariff on Chinese goods was “not sustainable,” though “it could stand." Concerns about more “cockroaches” in credit markets also ease ahead of many small regional banks reporting this week. The USD is higher. Commodities are also higher across all 3 complexes, yet crude is weaker. Almost 20% of SPX reports this week. The US economic calendar is empty today. September’s delayed CPI print will be released Friday. Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Amazon +0.1%, Tesla +1%, Apple +1.4%, Meta +0.4%, Nvidia +0.2%, Microsoft flat, Alphabet +0.2%). Celcuity (CELC) is up 46% after the biotechnology company said it has successfully recruited enough breast-cancer patients with the PIK3CA mutation to complete Phase 3 clinical trials of a novel treatment that incorporates the drug gedatolisib. Cooper Cos. (COO) shares climb 4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a stake in the medical device company and plans to push for strategic alternatives. Exelixis (EXEL) drops 11% after the drugmaker gave data from two separate late-stage cancer trials. Hologic Inc. (HOLX) climbs 5% as Blackstone Inc. and TPG Inc. are in advanced negotiations to acquire the company in a deal that could value the medical device maker at more than $17 billion including debt. A transaction could be announced in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter. Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) tumbles 28% after the drug developer gave data from an early-mid stage breast cancer trial, that Oppenheimer says is overshadowed by disappointing results from peer developer, Roche. Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) rises 15% after US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright made an X post Friday night supporting the company’s effort to restart one of its California oil projects that is awaiting state approval. In corporate news, Amazon Web Services suffered a widespread disruption, affecting services for companies including Perplexity, Coinbase and Robinhood. Sales of Apple’s latest generation of iPhones are off to a faster start than usual, with its most basic model surging in popularity. Kering agreed to sell its beauty division to L’Oreal in a €4 billion deal. Amid fears about more “cockroaches” in credit markets, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong said that “the problem isn’t yet flashing red.” But nerves remain. Deutsche Bank strategists noted that overall equity positioning tumbled last week in the biggest weekly cut since the April selloff, and sentiment fell to net bearish for the first time in four weeks, which is odd because Goldman saw the reverse: the first positive sentiment print since February. After recent stock wobble, Goldman's US equity sentiment indicator turns positive for the first time since February. pic.twitter.com/379r1u1zzU October 20, 2025 Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that there needs to be follow through on a US-China deal and stability in EPS revisions to clear the risk of a further correction in stocks. “The market trend is rather positive with this new lull on the trade war front,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “The earnings so far have been rather good and the AI frenzy has helped a comeback from the tech sector.” The latest bout of volatility has spared a sector rotation in the US and Europe, with investors taking profit in crowded sector while defensive plays are back in favor. The Relative Rotation function on the terminal shows momentum has faded for tech in the US, while optimism has returned to health care. Elsewhere, China’s economy grew at the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter as a boost from booming exports was undermined by weak spending and investment. The 4.8% expansion was still a touch better than economists expected. The data came just ahead of a four-day meeting of China’s political leaders, with markets watching for fresh measures to extend the country’s strongest equity rally in eight years and shore up the yuan. The new tariff threats “were ultimately a case of ‘the boy who cried wolf,’ and the more it occurs, the less people take it seriously,” said Michael Field, an analyst at Morningstar Investment Service. “Investors took a little bit off the table and now maybe they’re getting a bit more optimistic as we head into earning season.” Back home, as the government shutdown entered its 20th day, a keenly-awaited CPI reading will finally be released on Friday. Bloomberg Economics expects core consumer price inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, to slow to 0.23% in September from 0.35% the prior month, taking the annual measure down to 3.0% from 3.1%. That should give the Fed a green light to cut rates next week. European stocks reboudned, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.6%, paring Friday’s decline as signs of easing global trade frictions helped boost broader risk sentiment. Industrial,bank and energy stocks are leading gains while autos provide a drag. The CAC 40 underperforms as a sharp drop in BNP Paribas shares weighs on the index. Here are the biggest movers Monday European defense stocks are outperforming on Monday, as tensions rise in the Middle East and thanks to some positive newsflow Kering shares rise as much as 5.5%, to the highest since July 2024, after the Gucci owner agreed to sell its beauty division to L’Oreal SA as part of a long-term strategic alliance in a $4.7 billion deal Holcim shares gain as much as 2.1% after the Swiss building materials company agreed to acquire European walling systems firm Xella Tomra gains as much as 5.2%, the most since August 7, after brokers upgraded their views on the Norwegian recycling equipment company to buy, including ABG Sundal Collier and Nordea, while Kepler Cheuvreux reiterated its buy rating Siltronic shares jump as much as 11% after the manufacturer of silicon wafers was upgraded at Jefferies, which cited scope for a re-rating ahead of better conditions next year Mota-Engil, Portugal’s biggest builder, rises as much as 3.2% in Lisbon after winning a contract worth about €820 million to build a stretch of railway in Mexico BNP Paribas fell as much as 8.8%, the steepest decline since early April after losing a court case that analysts said could result in a costly settlement B&M European Value Retail shares drop as much as 20% to hit an all-time low, after the retailer cut its guidance less than two weeks after issuing a profit warning, while announcing Chief Financial Officer Mike Schmidt is stepping down Forvia shares fall as much as 8%, the most since April, after the automotive technology company said Stellantis’s decision to temporarily halt operations at several plants in Europe will cost it “some tens of millions of euros” in sales this year GlobalData shares drop as much as 11% to the lowest since 2019 after the data analytics firm cut its 2H adj. Ebitda margin forecast and said that acquired businesses are being integrated more slowly than expected Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced across the board, lifted by hopes for policy support from a key political meeting this week in China and easing trade tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9% to close at a record, propelled by shares of TSMC and Tencent. Japan’s benchmarks were among the region’s best performers on expectations that stimulus advocate Sanae Takaichi will become the country’s first female prime minister. Stocks in Hong Kong and China also rallied as the so-called Fourth Plenum, a four-day gathering that helps shape China’s long-term policy, kicked off in Beijing. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.5%, the most since August, after officials affirmed the economy is on track to reach this year’s expansion target. The CSI 300 Index added 0.5%, even as data showed the weakest growth pace in a year. There’s “optimism building around possible new measures to support domestic consumption and stabilize the property sector,” Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management, said, referring to the plenum. Singapore and Malaysia markets were closed for a holiday. Vietnamese stocks plunged by the most in six months amid concerns over corporate bond issuance violations. In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat, pausing after its slide to its lowest in nearly two weeks late last week In rates, treasuries are little changed on the day, with yields across the curve within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels. US 10-year is near 4.01%; UK counterpart outperforms and Germany’s lags, each by around 1bp; French 10-year is about 2bp cheaper on the day. In Europe, French bonds underperformed after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the nation’s sovereign credit score in an unscheduled move late Friday, widening the 10-year yield spread with Germany to around 79 basis points after S&P downgraded France. Monday session has no major scheduled events. Treasury auctions later this week include 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and 5-year TIPS new issue Thursday. In commodities, spot gold is little changed. WTI crude futures fall 0.3%. Bitcoin rises 1.8%. US economic calendar calendar empty for the session. September’s CPI print, delayed from last week by US government shutdown that began Oct. 1, is expected to be released Friday. Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday Market Snapshot S&P 500 mini +0.3% Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4% Russell 2000 mini +0.8% Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6% DAX +1.1% CAC 40 little changed 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.01% VIX -0.1 points at 20.68 Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.97 euro little changed at $1.1662 WTI crude -0.3% at $57.37/barrel Top Overnight News Trump Lists Top Demands on China Before Trade Talks Resume: BBG China's economy slows as trade war, weak demand highlight structural risks: RTRS Stocks resumed gains on Monday as signs of easing trade frictions helped boost sentiment after volatility tied to concerns about US regional lenders: BBG US said on Friday that about 1,400 workers will be furloughed at the Nuclear Weapons Security Agency as of Monday due to the government shutdown. Microsoft leaders are reportedly worried that meeting OpenAI's rapidly expanding computing demand could lead to overbuilding servers that might not generate a financial return: The Information. New analysis of download trends and daily active users provided by Apptopia showed that ChatGPT’s mobile app growth may have hit its peak as estimates indicate that new user growth, measured by percentage changes in new global downloads, slowed after April: TechCrunch. Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears: RTRS Gaza Violence Spills Into Another Day, Testing Cease-Fire Deal: WSJ Global companies hit by more than $35 billion in US tariffs, but outlook stabilizing: RTRS Amazon's AWS recovering after major outage disrupts apps, services worldwide: RTRS BNP Slumps After Sudan Ruling Raises Risk of Costly Settlement: BBG Gaza Violence Spills Into Another Day, Testing Cease-Fire Deal: WSJ Trump accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of being an “illegal drug leader,” saying the US will halt all aid to the country and impose fresh tariffs in a dramatic escalation of tensions with one of Washington’s closest security partners in Latin America: BBG Runaway Insurance Costs Bring Back Talk of Price Caps: WSJ South Korea’s top policy chief said the country made “substantial progress” on most key issues in tariff talks with the US, following a weekend of meetings that also saw Seoul’s top tycoons attend a golf event with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate: BBG How China Took Over the World’s Rare-Earths Industry: WSJ Australia’s prime minister is set to pitch his nation’s vast resource holdings as a solution to China’s rare earth curbs at a meeting Monday with Trump, as the US and other countries scramble to diversify supply of critical minerals: BBG Blackstone and TPG are in advanced negotiations to acquire Hologic in a deal that could value the medical device maker at more than $17 billion including debt, according to people familiar with the matter: BBG Holcim agreed to buy Xella, a European walling systems company, in a €1.85 billion deal, expanding its building solutions business following the spin off of its North American unit: BBG Wall Street Is Betting on an Obamacare Deal. That Won’t Fix Insurers’ Troubles: WSJ KKR & Co. is in talks to buy a minority stake in Hong Kong-based Peak Reinsurance, according to people familiar with the matter: BBG Kering Backs Away From Beauty With $4.7 Billion L’Oreal Deal: BBG Replimune Soars After FDA Accepts Resubmitted Drug Application: BBG Trade/Tariffs US President Trump said he wants China to buy soybeans at least in the amount they were buying before, and he believes that China will make a deal on soybeans, while he added that they can lower what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to do things for them too and they do not want China to play a rare earth game with them. US President Trump signed a proclamation on Friday to address the threat to national security from imports of medium and heavy-duty vehicles, parts and buses, while an official had announced that Trump is to impose 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks effective November 1st and will impose 10% tariffs on imported buses, as well as provide significant tariff relief for automakers’ US production. US President Trump’s administration is reportedly quietly watering down some tariffs and has exempted more products from US tariffs in recent weeks, while it offered to exempt hundreds of more goods from farm products when countries strike deals with the US, according to WSJ. US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng engaged in candid, in-depth and constructive discussions regarding trade and will meet in person in the week ahead to continue their discussions. Dutch Economy Minister Karremans said the Nexperia intervention was needed due to the former CEO’s actions, and he will speak with a Chinese government official about Nexperia within days. Furthermore, he said China and Europe both have an interest in solving problems around Nexperia, and commented that China has the wrong impression that the Netherlands and the US ‘teamed up’ on Nexperia. South Korea sees a higher chance of a trade deal with the US by the APEC summit. A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk APAC stocks were higher amid tailwinds from recent trade-related rhetoric including US President Trump's comments on Friday that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi, while it was also reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He engaged in candid, in-depth and constructive discussions regarding trade and will meet in person in the week ahead to continue their discussions. ASX 200 marginally gained amid strength in tech and industrials, although the index notably lagged behind regional peers amid weakness in the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh all-time high above the 49,000 level amid a reignition of the Takaichi trade with the LDP leader on track to become Japan's first female PM following an agreement to form a coalition with Japan's Innovation Party. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the positive mood with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in tech, and as participants digested the latest Chinese data releases, including GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales which either matched or topped forecasts, while the CPC Central Committee is also holding a four-day closed-door meeting through to Thursday to discuss the five-year development plan. Top Asian News Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Oct) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%) Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Oct) 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%) PBoC Governor Pan said on Friday that the Chinese economy remains on track with positive signs and noted that prices remain stable with Core CPI picking up, while he also said that monetary policy will remain appropriately loose. Chinese tech giants paused stablecoin plans after Beijing raised concerns about the rise of currencies controlled by the private sector, according to FT. Japan’s LDP and the Japan Innovation Party agreed to form a coalition government. It was separately reported that Japan’s Innovation Party (Ishin) is considering staying out of the Cabinet and cooperating from outside, while Ishin party leader Yoshimura is to meet LDP leader Takaichi at 10:00BST/05:00EDT to finalise the coalition agreement. BoJ's Takata said monetary policy remains accommodative even as the achievement of the inflation target is in sight and the initial fear over the impact of tariffs has diminished, while he added they must be mindful of the risk Japan may see inflation overshoot expectations. Takata stated that the BoJ must communicate with markets on the assumption inflation target has been roughly achieved and they need to discuss monetary policy on assumption the price target has already been achieved, as well as noted that the BoJ needs to gradually shift policy in several stages, as Japan's economy is on the cusp of seeing a "true dawn". Japan LDP Leader Takaichi intends to appoint Toshimitsu Motegi as Foreign Minister, via Kyodo, looking to appoint Minoru Kihara as Chief Cabinet Secretary. BoJ reportedly likely to maintain the view that the economy is on course for moderate recovery, despite headwinds from US tariffs, and may slightly revise up economic growth forecast for FY25 at the October meeting, according to Reuters sources. Japan's LDP leader Takaichi and Innovation Party Yoshimura sign agreement to form coalition government (as expected) European bourses (+0.6%) opened firmer across the board, but have sauntered off best levels as markets digest the ongoing AWS outages. European sectors hold a positive bias. Defence names lead the pile, driven by the heightened geopolitical tensions between both Israel/Hamas and Russia/Ukraine. As for stock specifics, BNP Paribas (-9%) moves lower as traders digest a recent Sudan-ruling and potential implications, alongside S&P's unscheduled downgrade on France. Elsewhere, Kering (+3.8%) benefits after agreeing to sell its beauty division to L'Oreal (+0.5%). Top European News BoE Governor Bailey said Brexit is to have a negative impact on UK economic growth for the foreseeable future. UK Energy Secretary Miliband suggested the government is looking at the possibility of cutting the rate of VAT on energy bills, but said that he would not speculate ahead of the Chancellor's Budget in November. Three pension giants in the UK have made a fresh GBP 3bln wave of commitments to invest in rental homes, infrastructure and fast-growing companies, ahead of a government-backed meeting to discuss how they can work to boost investment, according to FT. France’s wealthy are reportedly investing record amounts in Luxembourg-based annuities and shifting other funds to perceived havens such as Switzerland amid concerns about political turmoil at home, according to FT. S&P lowered France to 'A+' from 'AA-'; Outlook Stable, while it cited heightened risks to budgetary consolidation. FX USD is flat/subdued trade during Monday's early European hours after rangebound price action overnight amid the mostly risk-on mood to start the week and following the recent softer tone from US President Trump on China after he noted on Friday that 100% tariffs are unsustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi in two weeks. On the technical front, DXY found support at its 50 DMA on Friday (50 DMA at 98.04 today), with today's current range between 98.39-98.67. Mild upward bias for EUR after rebounding off Friday's trough but remaining beneath the 1.1700 handle, with gains capped as recent comments from ECB officials provided little to spur prices, and after S&P surprisingly lowered France's sovereign credit rating to 'A+' from 'AA-'. Little reaction was seen following German PPI, which eased more than expected. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1652-1.1680 range, within Friday's 1.1650-1.1728 band, with the 100 DMA at 1.1651 today. USD/JPY holds a mild upward bias after briefly topping 151.00 overnight to a 151.20 peak before waning, with initial upside facilitated by the positive APAC risk tone, whilst Japan's LDP leader is on course to win the PM vote in parliament tomorrow. The pair was later weighed down by hawkish comments from BoJ's Takata, who said monetary policy remains accommodative even as the achievement of the inflation target is in sight and the initial fear over the impact of tariffs has diminished. Fleeting price action was seen on reports that BoJ is reportedly likely to maintain the view that the economy is on course for moderate recovery, despite headwinds from US tariffs. USD/JPY resides in a 150.34-151.20 range, within Thursday's 150.20-151.40 range, but after falling to 149.37 on Friday. Uneventful trade for GBP thus far with newsflow also on the quieter side for the UK, and with little overall move seen to BoE Governor Bailey suggesting Brexit is to have a negative impact on UK economic growth for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, BoE's Greene said on Friday that core and services inflation are going sideways and noted indications that the disinflation process is slowing, while she is concerned about second-round effects and stated that firms are more sensitive to upside inflation surprises. GBP/USD resides in a narrow 1.3406-1.3443 range, within Friday's 1.3391-1.3472 range, with the 50 DMA at 1.3475 today. Mild upward bias amid the positive seen in APAC markets, although the same sentiment is somewhat limited in European trade, with AWS outages reported in the US East region, affecting global firms. Nonetheless, US President Trump Friday said talks with China are progressing. Overnight, PBoC maintained LPRs as expected, whilst Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales either matched or topped forecasts, in turn keeping a mild upward bias in copper. Fixed Income JGBs are under modest pressure, down to a 135.89 trough taking out the 136.02 base from Friday. Downside comes amid a constructive global risk tone, weighing on the fixed income space broadly, a tone that saw strength in Japanese stocks overnight. Elsewhere, the weekend saw coalition building updates as Ishin and the LDP came to an agreement, this should allow LDP’s Takaichi to secure premiership at Tuesday’s vote. Note, Ishin+LDP leaves Takaichi a few votes shy of the majority threshold. OATs are in the red alongside peers but lagging at most points. Pressure that comes after S&P cut France on Friday to A+ from AA-, remarking that uncertainty over France’s finances remain elevated and that unless a significant deficit-reducing measure is unveiled, the consolidation will be slower than previously thought. An update that has sent OATs to a 122.74 base with losses of just over 40 ticks at most. While lower, the benchmark remains comfortably clear of last week’s 121.82 base and the 120.61 low from the week before that. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened, but remains within familiar levels; at a 80bps peak. USTs are in the red. Weighed on by the general risk tone after the trade updates from Trump. In brief, the US President commented that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke with Chinese VP He, a talk described as constructive and ahead of a meeting in the near term. Trade aside, US updates are a little light with the shutdown still going and geopolitics dominating a lot of the newsflow. While the shutdown is on and data remains suspended, we will get the September CPI release on Friday for social security adjustment purposes. Down to a 113-10 low with losses of five ticks. Bunds are pressured, and with little driving things for the complex so far. Bunds down to a 129.76 base at worst; similarly to peers. Over in the UK, Gilts are marginally outperforming vs peers, seemingly thanks to weekend press reports around the upcoming budget, with pension firms making commitments and further chatter around measures Reeves could take. Furthermore, BoE’s Greene said the rate cutting cycle is not over. Updates that have seemingly tempered the bearish bias seen globally, but only marginally. Commodities Crude benchmarks falling lower despite reports over the weekend that Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement. WTI and Brent briefly extended Friday’s high on the open, peaking at USD 57.43/bbl and USD 61.55/bbl respectively before falling back into Friday’s range and troughing at USD 56.57/bbl and USD 60.68/bbl respectively. Spot XAU oscillating in a USD 4219-4274/oz band as precious metals consolidate following Friday’s selloff that saw XAU and XAG drop as much as 3.3% and 5.9% respectively. Base metals are trading higher after the latest Chinese data (GDP, industrial production, and retail sales) either matched or exceeded expectations. In addition, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said the FY target of 5% growth is still on track. 3M LME Copper extended Friday’s high during the APAC session, forming a peak at USD 10.73k/t, before falling to USD 10.65k/t and oscillating between these parameters. Geopolitics: Middle East Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israel was attacking Gaza, while the Israeli military said Hamas carried out multiple attacks against Israeli forces beyond the ‘yellow line’, violating the ceasefire. It was separately reported by Axios that US and Israeli sources said that Israel notified the US administration in advance of the strikes in Gaza, while the Israeli military said it began a wave of attacks against Hamas targets in southern Gaza, but later said it is resuming enforcement of the Gaza ceasefire after it was ‘violated’ by Hamas. Israeli government spokesperson said Israel has continued to fulfil its obligations to the ceasefire and noted that they are in a ceasefire, but soldiers can act to defend themselves. Israeli PM Netanyahu instructed that the Rafah crossing will not be opened until further notice, while an opening will be considered based on whether Hamas returns deceased hostages and implements the agreed-upon framework. It was separately reported by Israeli media that Israel is to halt the supply of aid to Gaza until further notice, while an Israeli official said aid into Gaza was halted due to the truce breach by Hamas. US informed the guarantor nations of the peace agreement of credible reports indicating an imminent ceasefire violation by Hamas against the people of Gaza, according to the State Department, which stated that if Hamas proceed with this attack, measures will be taken to protect the people of Gaza and preserve the integrity of the ceasefire. A US official cited by Axios stated that Israel told the US it will open the crossing to Gaza on Monday morning, while the Palestinian embassy in Egypt earlier stated that the Rafah border crossing with Egypt is to reopen on Monday, which will allow Palestinians residing in Egypt to return to Gaza. Israeli PM’s office said Israel received the bodies of two hostages from the Red Cross in Gaza. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire during talks mediated by Turkey and Qatar in Doha. "According to Arab media reports, a number of people were killed and wounded during the Israeli army's shooting in eastern Gaza", according to Iran International. Geopolitics: Ukraine US President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky in a tense meeting on Friday that he doesn’t intend to provide missiles, at least for now, according to Axios. It was separately reported that Trump urged Zelensky to accept Russian President Putin’s terms and said that Putin warned he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree, according to FT. US President Trump said he did not discuss Ukraine ceding the Donbas region to Russia, and the region should stay as it is now, with Russia having some 78% of it. Russian President Putin reportedly demanded during a phone call with US President Trump that the territory of the Donetsk region must completely come under the control of the Russian army to end the war, but with Russia now ready to give up “parts” of the territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange for it, according to The Washington Post. Russia said its forces captured Pleshchivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while Russian forces also captured Chunyshyne and Poltavka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA. IAEA said work has begun to repair damaged off-site power lines to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after a four-week outage, following the establishment of local ceasefire zones to allow work to proceed. UK PM Starmer said the UK would continue to step up its support and would ensure Ukraine was in the strongest possible position, according to a Downing Street spokesperson. Ukraine President Zelensky is expected to partake in a top-level meeting in Brussels this week, via Politico citing sources; diplomats add the Trump-Zelensky meeting was not as "bleak as reported". Ukrainian President Zelensky, when asked about Tomahawk missiles, says in his view, US President Trump does not want escalation with Russia until he has had a chance to have another meeting with Moscow. Geopolitics: Other China said it found evidence of a US cyberattack on a Chinese state agency. US President Trump officials are quietly discussing the idea of a meeting with North Korea’s leader Kim during an upcoming Asia trip, according to CNN. US President Trump said they destroyed a very large drug-carrying submarine that was navigating towards the US on a well-known narcotrafficking transit route, while US intelligence confirmed the vessel was loaded up with mostly fentanyl. US President Trump called Colombian President Petro a ‘drug dealer’ and announced the US would end “large-scale payments and subsidies”, according to The Sunday Times. US Republican Senator Graham said President Trump will be announcing major tariffs against Colombia, while President Trump confirmed Senator Graham's statement on Colombia tariffs and said he will announce more regarding this on Monday. US Event Calendar Fed’s External Communications Blackout (October 18 - October 30) DB's Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap The mood music on tariffs has sounded much more positive in recent days. As it stands, President Trump has threatened additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1, but Treasury Secretary Bessent said that he’d be meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in person this week. And on Friday, President Trump said he thought that a meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea would still go ahead, and said “I think we’re getting along with China”. So that’s added to investor expectations that those 100% tariffs won’t come into force, and if we look at Polymarket, it’s currently pointing to just a 7% chance they come into effect by November 1. As all that’s happening, we still have the ongoing government shutdown in the US, which is now on day 20. Bear in mind that only two shutdowns have been longer than this one, which were the 35-day shutdown in 2018-19, and the 21-day shutdown in 1995-96. And as it stands, there’s still no sign of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would see the government re-open. In terms of the market implications, this is still affecting the flow of economic data, so we’re not getting regular releases like the weekly initial jobless claims, and we don’t have the payrolls number for September either. However, this week we will get the postponed CPI release for September, which is coming out on Friday, just in time for the FOMC meeting the week after. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for headline CPI to come in at a monthly +0.42% pace, which would push up the year-on-year rate to +3.1%, and be the strongest monthly print since January. Meanwhile for core CPI, they expect that to come in at +0.32%, with the year-on-year print remaining at +3.1%. Within the data, they’re still looking for signs of tariff impacts in core goods, with a focus on categories like apparel and new vehicles that haven’t yet seen a meaningful tariff pass-through. For more information, see their full preview here. Otherwise this week, another key data highlight will be the October flash PMIs on Friday, which will give us an initial indication as to how the global economy has fared at the start of Q4. We also have a few CPI prints elsewhere, including from Japan, the UK and Canada. Then on the earnings side, we’ve got more than 80 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week, including Tesla and Netflix, along with more than 80 from the STOXX 600, including Barclays, NatWest and SAP. Overnight in Asia, markets have got the week off to a strong start this morning, as easing trade tensions has lifted equities across the region. Japan’s Nikkei (+2.94%) has been the biggest outperformer, which has got a further boost after the Liberal Democratic Party agreed a coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party, setting up Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s next Prime Minister. She’s been pro-stimulus, similar to her predecessor Shinzo Abe, and their 5yr bond yield (+4.8bps) is up to a post-2008 high of 1.23% overnight. Meanwhile in China, the Q3 GDP figures overnight have shown growth decelerating to +4.8% year-on-year, the slowest in a year. However, that’s marginally better than the +4.7% reading expected by the consensus, so we haven’t seen much of a direct market reaction, and indices including the CSI 300 (+0.80%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.69%) have both risen this morning. That’s been echoed elsewhere in Asia, with South Korea’s KOSPI up +1.02%. And US and European equity futures have similarly moved higher, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.33%) and the DAX (+0.67%) pointing to solid gains. The main point of weakness is among French bond futures, which have underperformed their German counterparts this morning after S&P’s move on Friday to lower France’s credit rating from AA- to A+. Recapping last week now, it was a topsy-turvy one for markets, with several different themes to digest. Initially, risk assets bounced back strongly from the US-China sell-off on the previous Friday, but there was then a big slump thanks to those fresh concerns about regional banks, before more positive trade headlines and earnings results led to a fresh recovery. So at the height of those fears, the VIX index hit an intraday peak of 28.99pts, something we hadn’t seen since April just after the Liberation Day turmoil. But that volatility ultimately subsided, with the VIX ending the week down slightly at 20.78pts, whilst the S&P 500 also ended the week up +1.70%. Those gains were even stronger for the NASDAQ (+2.14%), with a boost from OpenAI’s deal with Broadcom (+7.61% last week) to purchase 10 gigawatts of computer chips. However, regional banks still struggled given the broader concerns around credit quality, and the KBW regional bank index fell -1.72% in its 4th consecutive weekly decline. Meanwhile for US Treasuries, there was a rally across the curve, particularly at the front-end as investors dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts. That was partly driven by the general risk-off tone amidst the regional bank issues, but lower oil prices also helped to lower inflation expectations. So the 1yr US inflation swap fell -4.7bps last week to a 3-month low of 3.10%. And in turn, the amount of cuts priced in by the June 2026 meeting was up +6.3bps on the week to 101bps. So the 2yr yield ended the week -4.4bps lower at 3.46%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -2.3bps to 4.01%. Over in Europe, there was a very divergent performance. For instance, France’s CAC 40 moved up +3.24% after French PM Lecornu survived no-confidence votes in the National Assembly, whilst the index was also supported by strong earnings from LVMH (+10.93%). However, the STOXX 600 was up by a smaller +0.37%, and the German DAX actually fell -1.69% last week alongside declines for Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.69%) and the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.77%). For bonds, however, there was a more consistent rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (-6.4bps), OATs (-11.8bps), and BTPs (-8.8bps) all moving lower. And over in the UK, 10yr gilts (-14.4bps) outperformed as weaker-than-expected data saw investors dial up their expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. Lastly, precious metals continued to perform very strongly, with both gold and silver prices posting a 9th consecutive weekly gain for the first time since 2020. For gold, that meant prices rose +5.82% last week to $4,252/oz, and they even hit an intraday record of $4,380/oz at one point. Meanwhile silver was up +3.53% to $51.92/oz. Otherwise, Brent crude oil prices fell -2.30% last week to $61.29/bbl, which came as a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and lingering trade uncertainty was boosted by easing fears of restrictions on Russian oil. That followed a call between President Trump and President Putin, who agreed to a meeting in Budapest Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 08:43
Kushner: Trump Believes Israel Is "Getting A Little Bit Out Of Control" Via The Libertarian Institute In an interview, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, said the President believed Israel was out of control following the attempted assassination of Hamas leaders in Qatar. Kushner and Trump’s Envoy Steve Witkoff appeared on 60 Minutes on Sunday. When asked how Trump responded after learning of the Israeli assassination attempt last month, Kushner responded, Trump "Trump felt like the Israelis were getting a little bit out of control." US Embassy file image He continued, "It was time to be very strong and stop them from doing things that he felt were not in their long-term interests." Witkoff explained that Doha was playing a key mediating role in talks between Israel and Hamas. He said the strikes set back negotiations, and the Qataris lost faith in the US. He added, “We felt a little bit betrayed.” On September 9, Israel fired 10 missiles at a Hamas building in Qatar, killing several people, including a Qatari security official. The Hamas officials were meeting to discuss a ceasefire and hostage exchange proposed by Trump. Witkoff also claimed that Trump did not have knowledge that Israel was planning to attempt to kill the Hamas leaders. However, Israeli officials have disputed that narrative, claiming Trump was informed at least hours before the attack, and did not push Israel to call off the operation. Following the assassination, Trump had to try to mend the relationship between Tel Aviv, Washington, and Doha. Trump mediated a call where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized to his Qatari counterpart. Exclusive: Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, and special envoy Steve Witkoff give a behind-the-scenes look at the tense moments leading up to the ceasefire and hostage deal after an Israeli bombing threatened to derail the agreement. “[Trump] felt like the Israelis… pic.twitter.com/WtZpJcYHTG October 17, 2025 Trump also signed an Executive Order giving additional security guarantees to Doha. Qatar is a Major non-NATO US ally and hosts the largest US airbase in the Middle East. Kushner does not have an official role in the Trump administration, but has had a significant influence over Trump’s Middle East policy during both terms in the White House. Kushner is the founder of Affinity Partners, a private equity firm that has significant business ties with Saudi Arabia. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 08:25
Paramount Is Laying Off Up To 3,000 Employees Starting This Month By Luke Bouma of CordCutterNews Paramount Global is poised to initiate a sweeping round of layoffs affecting up to 3,000 employees as early as the week of October 27, 2025. This accelerated timeline, drawn from insights shared by industry insiders, comes just weeks after the closure of Skydance Media’s transformative acquisition of the storied entertainment giant according to a report from Deadline. The move underscores the aggressive financial recalibration underway at the newly merged entity, as it grapples with mounting pressures from streaming competition, declining linear TV revenues, and the need to streamline operations in an era of belt-tightening across the media sector. The decision to advance the job cuts from an originally anticipated early November start reflects heightened urgency within the executive suites. Paramount’s leadership, now steered by David Ellison’s Skydance Corporation following the August 7 deal’s completion, has been laser-focused on realizing substantial cost reductions. Sources close to the matter indicate that the impending reductions represent the opening salvo in a broader restructuring effort projected to extend through the close of the year. While initial estimates pegged the total impact at 2,500 to 3,000 positions globally, domestic U.S. staffers could face around 2,000 of those eliminations, with international savings still under rigorous calculation. This first phase alone would trim a significant chunk from Paramount’s pre-merger workforce of approximately 18,000, dwarfing Skydance’s leaner headcount of under 2,000. At the heart of these measures lies a bold financial target: slashing operational expenses by roughly $2 billion in the years following the merger. Skydance’s integration strategy emphasizes efficiency, blending its agile production model with Paramount’s vast but bloated infrastructure. The layoffs are set to ripple across every corner of the business, from theatrical film divisions grappling with blockbuster unpredictability to streaming platforms like Paramount+ battling subscriber churn. Linear television arms, long a cornerstone of the company’s revenue, face particularly acute scrutiny as cord-cutting accelerates and ad dollars migrate online. Even ancillary units, such as global distribution and marketing, will not be spared, as the conglomerate seeks to eliminate redundancies born from years of expansion and acquisition. This impending workforce contraction arrives on the heels of a string of high-profile executive exits, signaling deeper instability at the top. Key leaders in creative, finance, and strategy roles have already departed, paving the way for a more unified command structure under Ellison’s vision. The merger itself, valued at billions, promised synergies that could revitalize Paramount’s fortunes, yet it has instead spotlighted the chasm between Skydance’s nimble ethos and Paramount’s legacy behemoth status. Insiders describe the atmosphere as one of cautious resolve, with teams bracing for disruptions that could ripple through ongoing productions, from tentpole franchises to niche content pipelines. Paramount’s forthcoming third-quarter earnings call, scheduled for November 10, will offer the first public glimpse into the financial toll and triumphs of this overhaul. Analysts anticipate disclosures on how these cuts factor into broader profitability goals, especially as the company navigates licensing deals, content investments, and the evolving demands of a fragmented audience. The timing of the layoffs, just ahead of this key investor update, appears calculated to present a leaner balance sheet, potentially boosting stock performance amid Wall Street’s skepticism toward legacy media. This development fits into a grim mosaic of downsizing that has defined Hollywood and broader media circles throughout 2025. Warner Bros. Discovery, CNN, and other titans have similarly wielded the axe, citing similar headwinds from digital disruption and economic headwinds. For Paramount employees, the news carries a heavy personal weight, as families and careers hang in the balance during the holiday season. Yet, in the words of incoming leadership, these steps—though undoubtedly challenging—aim to forge a more sustainable path forward, positioning the merged powerhouse to compete in a landscape where agility trumps scale. As the week of October 27 approaches, the entertainment world watches closely. Will these reductions catalyze a phoenix-like resurgence for Paramount, or merely deepen the scars of an industry in flux? With Skydance at the helm, the conglomerate’s next chapter promises high drama, both on and off the screen. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 08:05
Trump Says Gaza Ceasefire Still In Place As Israel Halts Short-Lived Airstrikes The Trump-brokered ceasefire in Gaza is hanging by a thread, as local officials say that nearly 100 Palestinians have been killed and some 230 wounded overall since the ceasefire's start on October 10. Israel on Sunday launched dozens of new airstrikes in response to what it called Hamas's "blatant violation" of the deal, but which the militant group denied. Gaza sources said at least 44 were killed as a result of those Sunday strikes. Via Reuters Israel's military (IDF) had said "terrorists fired an anti-tank missile and gunfire" toward its troops in Rafah, killing two soldiers - but this was met with a statement by Hamas saying it was "unaware" of any such fighting. But the Palestinian side is charging Israel of violations while warning that these strikes could "push the situation toward a total collapse". But by Sunday night the IDF said it "had begun renewed enforcement of the ceasefire" but followed by asserting it would "respond firmly to any violation of it." "The military later said it resumed enforcing the ceasefire, and the official confirmed that aid deliveries would resume Monday," France24 writes. "The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorised to discuss the issue with the media." President Trump has sought to downplay the weekend flare-up in hostilities. He told reporters that the ceasefire is still in placed, but that Hamas had been "rambunctious and they've been doing some shooting." He stipulated it could be "some rebels within" the armed group. "Either way it's gonna be handled properly. Toughly but properly," he added. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner have returned to Israel, as part of efforts to ensure the fragile ceasefire continues, and after Israel temporarily prevented aid from reaching the Strip, but then reopened at least one border crossing on Monday morning. Kushner told CBS over the weekend, "The biggest message that we’ve tried to convey to the Israeli leadership now is that now that the war is over, if you want to integrate Israel with the broader Middle East, you have to find a way to help the Palestinian people thrive and do better." AFP/Getty Images Israeli media is also reporting Vice President JD Vance is also to visit Israel on Tuesday, with Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport being the first to note it's been ordered to make preparations. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera highlights yet another pressing issue facing Palestinians - toxic health risks piling up in cities and streets. "Public services were suspended during the war, and waste piled up. Municipal officials say piles of filthy rubbish need to be cleared from Gaza’s streets," the outlet reports. "The mounds of rubbish are posing a severe health risk." Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 07:45
Rally Into Year-End? 3 Reasons To "Buy Dips" Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, This past week delivered a sharp pickup in volatility and quick reversals, underlining how fragile the tape has become. Early in the week, markets were pressured by renewed trade rhetoric from former President Trump. He threatened a 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 in response to China’s export controls on rare earths. While rare earth stocks soared on the news, it rattled investors, igniting fears of an escalating U.S.–China trade war just as bullish momentum had built. At the same time, along with the tariff threat came growing signs that liquidity conditions were tightening. The banking sector drew attention when regional banks disclosed exposure to loan losses, fraud allegations, and stress in credit conditions. Zions Bank flagged a $50 million loss, and Western Alliance Bank faced fraud claims, both stoking concern about contagion in regional banking. Not only that, but those pressures were exacerbated by steep borrowing from the Fed’s repo facilities. Banks tapped the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility for over $15 billion across two days, signaling stress in short-term funding markets. As we noted in our Daily Market Commentary: “In other words, the demand for liquidity is outstripping the supply. If the SOFR rate continues to climb, the Fed will likely act via a special liquidity program, QE, and/or a lower Fed Funds rate to provide liquidity. It doesn’t want a replay of 2019, when they were late to heed the warning signs and recognize liquidity shortfalls. Given that all asset markets are being juiced by liquidity, these warning signs should be followed closely by all investors.” Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments added complexity. He signaled that the quantitative tightening (QT) drawdown may be nearing its end, which was well timed as regulators watch indicators of liquidity stress. That shift raised hopes that the Fed might halt QT and alleviate funding pressures, lowering long-term rates. Nonetheless, bullish sentiment cracked, but remains unbroken. Despite the sharp fall to the 50-DMA last Friday, the market remained range-bound, oscillating between 50 and 20-DMA. Part of the support came late in the week, as Trump backpedaled somewhat, offering softer rhetoric toward China and confirming talks with Xi Jinping would still proceed. That tone shift helped relieve trade jitters. Banking names also recovered modestly after earnings from some regional banks came in better than feared. But notably, the VIX spiked to its highest levels in months before settling, and markets closed the week mixed. Overall, the week showed how precarious confidence is. The combination of trade risk, funding stress, and valuation pressure created a volatile mix. The late-week bounce suggests some resilience, but the backdrop remains delicate as we enter a new week. 📈Technical Backdrop The S&P 500 ended Friday on a positive note, despite a weak open, at 6,664.01, rising roughly 0.5% and capping a volatile week. The Dow and Nasdaq posted similar gains, helped by a late-week rebound in financials and easing rhetoric on trade. While the bounce relieved some pressure, it followed a volatile trading week. Volatility surged as investors recalibrated risk with the Volatility Index (VIX) spiking to levels not seen since early spring, touching 28 on Friday morning before settling at 20.78. This surge marked a renewed recognition of headline risk and broader market instability. Options markets are now pricing in more violent swings, and that shift in implied volatility suggests that rallies will remain vulnerable to reversals. Market internals also deteriorated over the week. Breadth narrowed further, with gains heavily concentrated in large-cap growth and technology stocks, particularly those tied to AI and defensives. Mid- and small-cap stocks lagged significantly. The 52-week high and low readings remained mixed even during the rebound, indicating a bifurcated market beneath the surface despite the headline strength. As shown, momentum indicators are on a sell signal, which will likely cap gains short-term, and relative strength readings have reversed from overbought territory and are cooling off with the pullback. The rebound into Friday helped preserve near-term support at the 50-DMA, but the underlying trend has weakened. Rising correlation across risk assets suggests that macro factors, liquidity, rates, and credit dominate technical setups. However, despite the volatility this week, the market remains bullish, and the consolidative action maintains a more constructive undertone. While credit markets added to the pressure, with high-yield spreads widening modestly and short-term funding stress flaring up again, there are reasons to be cautious. If that stress continues or spreads, it could undermine the broader equity backdrop even if technical levels hold. The current setup is defined by a tight range with clearly defined battle lines: Support: 6,600–6,675 zone (critical short-term floor) Resistance: 6,770–6,800 zone (intermediate upside target) Volatility threshold: VIX above 25 indicates unstable conditions, so it is worth watching next week. Momentum trigger: A breakout above resistance on rising volume and improving breadth would be a good sign. As long as support holds, tactical buying remains viable, but the market operates on thinner margins. If price breaks below support, momentum-driven selling may accelerate, especially if accompanied by rising credit stress. Conversely, a clean breakout above resistance would re-engage trend-following flows but require volume and breadth confirmation. With volatility elevated, every move must be respected and hedged accordingly. 💰 Market Rally Into Year-End? Despite the recent pickup in market volatility this week, the rally from the April lows has been breathtaking. As such, the current correction certainly has further to go. Maybe that is the case; however, while I don’t know with certainty what will happen, it is unsurprising that investors are questioning how much further it can run. The concerns are many and logical. Stocks have pushed too far, too fast. On a longer-term basis, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading near technically overbought levels, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on major indexes remains elevated, a threshold that often signals exhaustion in bull trends. Lastly, market breadth remains weak as leadership narrows to a handful of mega-cap tech names, etc. These are all the previous arguments we have presented in the #BullBearReport, and those risks remain. As we noted last week, another concern is that we have re-entered the “Bad News Is Good News” regime, which historically occurs closer to market peaks than not. “At the end of a stock-market rally, just before a consolidation or a correction, there is typically a period where the market reacts positively to bad news. That’s a regime we just entered. In previous times, around the last three major market tops, this regime has been in play. It is often preceded by a “good news is good news” regime (white line in chart), where stocks intuitively rally when it looks like the economy is strengthening. If we roll the chart further back, it shows the “bad news is good news” regime was in play before the 2011 and 2015 tops, too. However, there are a couple of caveats. Firstly, as we can see above, the “bad news is good” regimes can last for several months before the market corrects. This time could be no different. Secondly, in the 2000s and 2010s there were several periods where the “bad news is good” regime came mid-cycle, ie, in the middle of the rally. It’s possible that’s the case today, but with potentially huge overinvestment in the AI sphere, all-time high valuations, and increasing signs of speculative froth, you wouldn’t want to bank on it.“ – Simon White, Bloomberg Investor sentiment is another warning sign. The latest AAII sentiment readings show that bullish sentiment is climbing, but many investors admit they lack conviction. A recent Charles Schwab survey shows more than half of traders believe the market is overvalued. This disconnect between belief and positioning often occurs near short-term market tops. Meanwhile, the IMF has warned about the potential for a disorderly market correction due to extended valuations and loose financial conditions. The chart below confirms that despite the market surge, the sentiment composite/VIX ratio suggests investors remain cautious. Given this backdrop, should investors reduce risk sharply to avoid the coming market correction? While such would surely seem the logical course of action, there are three reasons why the market could continue to rise into year-end. Earnings, Buybacks, and Bullish Momentum Support the Rally Let me be very clear. This is not a long-term market call. This analysis aims to gauge potential market risk between today and December 31st. Once we get into 2026, we will analyze market underpinnings to determine outcomes over the new year. Therefore, let’s begin by understanding that despite the legitimate concerns listed above, there are strong reasons to remain invested through year-end and consider “buying the dips” that will occur along the way. First, corporate earnings remain a pillar of support for the stock market rally. As we enter Q3 earnings season, as is always the case, Wall Street analysts have lowered the “bar” rather dramatically. We started Q3 estimates at $243.25 per share, and despite the “Liberation Day” downgrade, earnings estimates as we start the reporting period have declined by $11 per share to $232.13. As such, we should expect that a high percentage of companies (70-80%) will report better-than-expected results, particularly in technology and growth sectors. According to JPMorgan, the current year-end earnings per share projections are solid, driven by strong margins and resilient consumer demand. Even with headwinds from inflation and interest rates, many firms are beating expectations and raising forward guidance. This earnings strength helps justify current valuations, especially for companies with strong pricing power and exposure to secular growth trends like AI and automation. As long as profits remain solid, the downside risk to equities is limited. More notably, Wall Street analysts have been increasing forward estimates into 2026, which are likely well ahead of reality. However, at least through year-end, investors are chasing earnings momentum and finding few reasons to pull back capital soon. Secondly, corporate buybacks remain a significant tailwind. In 2025, companies expect to repurchase over $1 trillion worth of stock, according to Citadel Securities. That level of demand is equivalent to some of the strongest periods of corporate repurchase activity in market history. Daily buyback flows during peak periods have approached $7 billion, and the fourth quarter historically sees a resurgence of these programs after blackout periods end. This consistent corporate demand helps support prices and absorb selling pressure. Lastly, momentum and sentiment dynamics continue to favor the bulls. Although some investors remain skeptical, many institutional and quantitative strategies still allocate capital based on price trends. As the market holds its ground near highs, that momentum becomes self-reinforcing. Investors sitting on cash are under pressure to participate, especially if benchmarks continue to climb. The fear of missing out (FOMO) is real, and it can drive flows back into risk assets even after short-term dips. Furthermore, the “retail demand” remains consistent in 2025, and every dip continues to be bought aggressively. As noted by Citadel Securities, retail investors have been “Net buyers in 23 of the last 26 weeks, and 7 straight weeks, rebounding after April weakness.” Furthermore, last Friday’s 2.71% decline was met by retail flow skewed 11% better to buy via the Call/Put Direction ratio (vs. a 4% average over the past 3 months), marking the most significant single-day call buying ever. However, we can visualize this retail investing “BTFD” momentum trade. The following chart shows the “buying panic” that has occurred since the “Pandemic Shutdown” for investors under the age of 40, which dwarfs all other periods in the data set. While the eventual reversion is likely massive, by year-end, there is likely very little that can break the current psychology driving markets. Strong earnings, aggressive buybacks, and trend-following behavior provide a durable backdrop for the stock market rally to continue. Pullbacks should be expected, but they are more likely to serve as buying opportunities than signals of a larger trend reversal. Seasonality Aligns with a Bullish Setup Another support for the bulls is that the calendar is now turning toward one of the most favorable times of the year for equity markets. Historically, November through December has delivered some of the most substantial average returns for the S&P 500. This seasonal strength is well documented and is often supported by end-of-year positioning, tax-loss selling deadlines, and corporate buyback windows reopening. Furthermore, as year-end approaches, fund managers generally push to get positions on the books before annual reports get released. Such has become known as the “Santa Claus Rally.” However, while the broader seasonal trend starts soon, there is a risk to the bullish backdrop. As we have already seen, October is known for its volatility pickup, and this past week has undoubtedly served as a reminder. However, any weakness during this stretch often provides entry points, not reasons to exit. Markets that consolidate or pull back in October usually rebound in November. On the other hand, December is often weak during the first couple of weeks of the month as professional fund managers distribute their annual capital gains, dividends, and interest. That distribution period tends to provide a short-term pullback that investors can buy into before the year-end rally. Lastly, additional monetary accommodation could support the rally with the Federal Reserve signaling further rate cuts and an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT). Does this mean there is “zero risk” that something could go wrong, leading to a bigger correction? No. There is always a risk that some unexpected, exogenous event could disrupt markets. However, investors who try to wait for ideal entry points risk missing the rally. While upside may be slower and more rotational than earlier in the year, the path of least resistance remains higher as we move toward year-end. The seasonal setup, earnings, and buybacks support the case for a stock market rally into the final quarter. As such, investors should approach the markets with a tactical bias, buy dips, and rebalance risk as needed on subsequent rallies. 🔑 Key Catalysts Next Week Markets will enter next week on edge. The recent bounce helped ease near-term fears, but the ongoing shutdown and a heavy slate of earnings will move the markets. Liquidity, credit quality, and macro data will be in sharp focus. Powell’s comments hinting at the end of QT may relieve some pressure, and the Government will release the CPI data next Friday, before the Fed’s next policy meeting the following week. The week sets up as a test for sentiment and market direction. Equities could continue their rebound if regional banks post stable earnings and the Fed signals more liquidity support. Strong macro data might strengthen the rally if it comes with disinflationary signs, but any surprise in trade policy or signs of renewed credit tightening would reignite volatility. Investors should prepare for more two-way price action as markets digest a complex mix of catalysts. Risk management remains key next week. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 07:20
Escaping The 'Digital Concentration Camp'; Gold Fights The 'Financial Control Grid' Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com, Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), publisher of “The Solari Report,” is back with a new cutting-edge publication called “Plunder.” CAF has been pushing gold (and silver) as an investment for the past few years. The record high price of the yellow metal has proven her right. In order for the few to control and steal the assets of the many, they have to build what CAF calls a “financial control grid.” What can help common people fight the control grid being built in front of their eyes? Buy the oldest money on the planet. CAF says: “We are seeing an increased move to institute a control grid. For example, you have the PM of England standing up and saying if you don’t have a digital ID, you can’t work. People are saying, wait a minute, I want my money outside the system because this system is beginning to act in criminal ways and manic ways. We are seeing changes in policies at the federal level that make people nervous. So, the reality is gold is simple. Everybody can understand it... Gold is looking attractive, and it is being remonetized. It’s not just by central bankers, now we see states around the United States making gold legal tender. . .. Silver has lagged dramatically, but silver is catching up.” Is there something wrong with the financial system for gold and silver to be flashing these warning signs with record high prices? CAF says: “There is something very wrong with the financial system, and that is the financial system is being used to institute a control grid. If they succeed instituting an all-digital financial system that includes AI (artificial intelligence), a digital ID and an all-digital financial system, then we are looking at the end of currency and what I call the digital concentration camp... Now that you have printed so much money, you want to get control of the real assets, and that’s what they have been doin... The game of growing the debt is over. Like the game of musical chairs, we are all going to scramble to get control of the real assets. This is why they have been pushing programmable money because you are trying to suck them out of the real assets while they build the control grid and while they jump in and get control of the real assets... What I keep telling everybody is to focus on what is real, and focus on what you can understand.” CAF also points out, “We are in a war, and people are trying to poison you. You have to take responsibility for your health and food choices. In the “Plunder” wrap-up, we talk about all the different efforts to plunder all the different countries around the world..." " What we have heard for years is, eventually, they would come and plunder the United States. It was just a matter of time, and now it is happening. That’s why it’s so important to see the game.” In closing, CAF gives many ideas and strategies to thwart the plunder such as everyone increasing the use of cash, making good food and health choices, not financing your enemies and acquiring hard assets such as farmland and gold, which CAF says is “starting a new bull market.” There is much more in the 58-minute interview. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 06:30
EU Capital Markets Union: Germany's Merz Calls For A "Wall Street" For Europe Submitted by Thomas Kolbe In the German Bundestag, Friedrich Merz appealed to the EU to integrate the fragmented European capital market more deeply and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. His vision for the next step: a kind of Wall Street for Europe. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz used his government statement on Thursday to take a strategic look at what he called the “fragmented and over-bureaucratized” European stock and capital market landscape. His stated goal: the completion of the Capital Markets Union. “We need a kind of European Stock Exchange, so that successful companies like BionTech from Germany don’t have to go to the New York Stock Exchange,” Merz said. “Our companies need a sufficiently broad and deep capital market to fund themselves faster and more efficiently.” Keeping Value Creation in Europe The Chancellor linked this call to a strong appeal to the European Commission for consistent de-bureaucratization of the fragmented European capital market. Only in this way, he stressed, will the value created from German and European research truly remain in Europe. Only then can societal wealth grow via the capital market, Merz argued. The debate is fueled by the growing trend of European innovative companies raising capital on U.S. exchanges. Recent examples include Linde, Birkenstock Holding, and BioNTech – firms that chose Wall Street listings over domestic options. This discussion fits into a broader financial context: the integration of European financial and capital markets. A far-reaching harmonization of financial hubs and access to capital would not be a mistake. Currently, there are around 15 securities exchanges in the Eurozone. The two largest operators – Euronext N.V. and Deutsche Börse AG – together handle about 80 percent of the annual €8 trillion equity trading volume. Ending Capital Flight Merz’ initiative stands not only for institutional reform but also as an attempt to free Europe’s financial markets from self-imposed regulatory constraints. The Chancellor emphasized the importance of better financing for innovative startups in high-tech future industries. Experience shows, however, that these companies tend to rely on venture capital – and they have no difficulty listing on international exchanges like Frankfurt or London. The real question for Brussels and Berlin is whether focusing on a new financial hub alone is enough to prevent visible capital flows from Europe to the United States. Germany alone lost around €64.5 billion last year due to capital flight – a symptom of deeper issues: an overbearing regulatory framework from Brussels and EU capitals, excessive fiscal burdens, and an escalating energy cost crisis. The Real Target These are fundamental economic imbalances that cannot be resolved simply by creating a European mega-exchange. They are homegrown design flaws – at the heart of today’s economic crisis. In reality, the debate over the Capital Markets Union is about something else entirely: the European Commission’s strategic goal to consolidate member state debt under its roof. This would give Brussels greater financial clout through regular EU bond issuances. More centralization in Brussels, less national oversight – the dream of the Brussels power center. The EU is gradually moving toward a paradigm shift in debt financing. Originally, the Commission was strictly prohibited from financing itself via market issuances. That red line has long been crossed. The COVID lockdowns provided a lever to launch NextGenerationEU, an unprecedented €800 billion debt program. This money largely financed national deficits, with the Commission acting as a market borrower, backed by the European Central Bank. Brussels Is Already Active in the Market It is no secret that Brussels wants to expand this model. The Ukraine conflict serves as a convenient pretext to issue new joint debt under the media-amplified threat of Russian aggression. Chancellor Merz has already indicated this spring that EU-wide borrowing for defense purposes is not off the table – but only for “absolute exceptional cases.” Merz deliberately avoided the term “Eurobonds,” just like Ursula von der Leyen, who in her State of the Union speech on September 10 circumnavigated the term, instead proposing a common European budget for “European goods.” The signal is clear: we are in a transitional phase where old debt rules are being gradually loosened, and the centralization of debt issuance in Brussels is systematically advanced. Euroclear as an Anchor This aligns seamlessly with thinking about a shared European exchange – potentially hosted by Euroclear in Brussels, the central player in the safekeeping and settlement of Eurozone securities. A serious move would also consider relocating the European Central Bank to Brussels for fast debt issuance. The EU’s response to the looming debt crisis is obvious: a much higher degree of centralization. Activating capital that can be leveraged to expand debt becomes strategic; the exchange consolidation is just a secondary concern. This also ties into the debate over using frozen Russian assets at Euroclear. The goal: collateralize a portfolio worth around €200 billion, largely expired European sovereign bonds, to finance reparations loans to Ukraine. Brussels is searching for credit collateral, regardless of origin. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 05:20
Internet Outage Sparked By "Operational Issues" At Amazon AWS Data Centers In Northern Virginia A massive internet outage is being reported at the start of the new workweek. The problem appears to be originating from Amazon Web Services (AWS), which provides infrastructure that powers much of the modern internet. AWS' Service Health Dashboard shows "operational issues" in its US-East-1 region (Northern Virginia), one of its largest data centers. What’s happening: Several AWS services, including DynamoDB and others, are experiencing slow performance (high latency) or failures (high error rates). Impact: Apps and websites that rely on AWS may be loading slowly, timing out, or not working at all. Users may be unable to create or update support cases through AWS' help system. Widespread slowdowns and outages are being reported across major platforms that depend on Amazon's cloud, including Snapchat, Roblox, Amazon Alexa, Fortnite, Ring, Robinhood, Venmo, Lyft, and many others. There's no official statement yet on what sparked the outage at AWS' Virginia data centers. Developing. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 04:54
Shell's Fuel Shortage In Indonesia Proves The Next Era Is Electric Around 200 Shell outlets in Indonesia have run out of gasoline after domestic supply disruptions tied to state oil giant PT Pertamina and a sweeping corruption probe, according to Bloomberg. Rivals such as BP AKR and Vitol’s Vivo have also been empty for weeks. Lines now snake through Pertamina’s own stations, the only ones still reliably selling fuel — though “neither drivers, nor private competitors, trust the quality of the product it offers.” Shell decided in May to leave the retail market altogether. A century ago, Indonesia was among the world’s great petroleum producers. A deal between a London trader and a Dutch oilfield operator in Sumatra led to the founding of what became Shell in 1907. But the nationalization of its Indonesian arm in 1957 created Pertamina, which soon became a symbol of both wealth and graft. Under General Ibnu Sutowo, who ran the company until 1976, Pertamina collapsed under billions in debt and became shorthand for elite excess. Bloomberg writes that since those glory days, output has fallen by two-thirds while the population has doubled to 283 million. Indonesia now imports much of its refined fuel, consumes more gasoline than Germany, and boasts one of the world’s largest vehicle fleets — mostly scooters. As ever, the profits have flowed toward insiders. Suharto-era cronies dominated oil trading in the 1980s, and protests over fuel prices helped bring down his regime in 1998. Promises of reform have repeatedly failed. President Joko Widodo once vowed to dismantle the “oil-and-gas mafia,” but corruption endured. This February, President Prabowo Subianto’s government launched an investigation into allegations that $11.9 billion was siphoned from Pertamina between 2018 and 2023 — largely by diluting premium gasoline with lower-grade fuel, damaging countless engines in the process. Distrust has driven consumers to private retailers such as Shell, BP, and Vivo. Yet import restrictions prevented these firms from meeting surging demand. They were forced to seek extra supplies from Pertamina — and, wary of contamination, often refused delivery. The result: a nationwide fuel drought. The chaos is accelerating Indonesia’s quiet electric revolution. Battery-powered vehicles already command more than 14% of the market, thanks to cheap electricity and falling prices. The top-selling electric scooter, the Polytron Fox R, costs roughly two-thirds as much as its gas rival, Honda’s BeAT. Even with limited public charging, private swap stations and home outlets are filling the gap. This could be a story of renewal: a vast, resource-rich nation pivoting toward clean, affordable energy. But that future depends on loosening the grip of a fossil-fueled elite that’s profited from dysfunction for decades. As long as Pertamina’s monopoly endures, innovation will struggle to breathe. Indonesia’s gasoline crisis mirrors the public anger spilling into its streets — both driven by a collapse of trust in the state. If President Prabowo wants to get ahead of that, he should use the EV boom to open the market and curb Pertamina’s dominance, “acting as ruthlessly as his predecessor Widodo did in liquidating its scandal-plagued trading arm back in 2015.” The kleptocratic habits of the Suharto years have no place in a modern democracy. The well has run dry; the future, unmistakably, is electric. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 04:15
The Rise & Rise Of AfD: Exploring The Unprecedented Political Dumbassery Afoot In The Federal Republic Authored by 'eugyppius' via A Plague Chronicle, The firewall is making AfD the strongest party in Germany, artificially empowering the left and destroying the centre-right, who alone can lift it There’s a subtle, little-discussed but very bizarre political phenomenon that has interested me ever since I started blogging and paying serious attention to politics. I first noticed it during Covid. Back in those dark days, virus understanders sold measures like lockdowns and masking to the public first as a means of keeping hospitals at capacity by slowing virus infections, then as a means of slowing virus infections just because, and finally as rituals that we had to do more of whenever infections rose, regardless of what effect they had on anything. Mass vaccination followed a nearly identical arc. At first the vaccinators said everyone had to be vaccinated to stop the virus, but by late Autumn 2021 they wanted to vaccinate everybody as much as possible because reasons. In both cases you could see, in real time, the ends towards which we were striving regressing, until finally the means became unquestionable ends in themselves. I propose to call this phenomenon endification, and I think it is very significant. It seems to happen whenever you mobilise large, complex systems towards goals that sooner or later prove unattainable. As these goals pass out of reach but the system remains mobilised, basic understandings of what we are even trying to do shift. The erstwhile means become almost sacred, worthy of pursuing in themselves, often for moral reasons. This can go on for a very long time even though it makes no sense and is painfully retarded. Germany seems especially prone to endification, probably for cultural reasons stemming from our pathological commitment to thoroughness. We have to do things longer and harder than everybody else, always with an aura of breathless moral urgency and self-importance. Imagine shades of Covid idiocy happening in many different political domains all the time. Our climate policies have long since become endified, the nuclear phaseout was endified and many aspects of mass migration have been endified. The brings me to the crazy and ridiculous firewall against the AfD – the unending Antifa-enforced political tabu upon achieving anything with AfD votes at the state or federal level. AfD support is held to be contaminating, regardless of whatever it is the AfD happen to be supporting. It can turn even the most ordinary routine legislation into dark evil malicious fascism. The firewall against the AfD splits the right and so it is a great gift to the left. For example, it’s the only reason the SPD has a say in the federal government after their disastrous showing in the traffic light coalition. It’s the only reason the left is still a force in East Germany outside Brandenburg at all. Should we get new elections, the firewall will probably bring the Greens into government too. If it didn’t exist, the left would have to invent it, that is how well the firewall is working out for them. The AfD also benefits enormously from the firewall, even though it’s not of their making. The last ten years of German politics have been one unending nightmarish festival of failure and stupidity. All the establishment parties have taken turns implicating themselves in this amazing shitshow, while religiously sparing the AfD any association with their unprecedented failures. The firewall lends truth to the AfD’s name; it has allowed Alternative für Deutschland to become the only conceivable political alternative in Germany. As things get worse and voters grow more desperate for alternatives, the AfD just becomes stronger. The firewall is an AfD-maximising machine. The firewall is only really bad for the people who invented it and who alone have the power to end it. I speak here of the centre-right Union parties, the CDU and the CSU. They maintain the firewall not because it helps them or because it is a good idea or even because the AfD are evil fascists, but because the firewall has been endified. In 2018, when the CDU first set up the firewall, it had a coherent purpose. It was supposed to be a means of keeping the AfD small by dissuading CDU supporters from defecting to their upstart rival. CDU leadership had seen how the rising Green Party ate into the support of the SPD after reunification, and they thought they could prevent the same thing from happening to them. They would have been better off doing nothing at all, because after seven years of firewall the AfD are stronger than the Greens ever were. The whole thing has become a lesson in why you should avoid heavy-handed interventions in complex systems and just govern pragmatically with whatever majorities are at hand. Let us survey the damage: The firewall has helped the AfD supplant the CDU as the standard right-of-centre party across the entire East. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt, the Evil Hitler Fascists are within striking distance of outright majorities. Ballooning AfD popularity is fuelled by the failures of Merz’s federal government, where the firewall has locked the Union into a doomed coalition with the radicalised and hostile Social Democrats. The SPD have so far obstructed all major federal initiatives, probably for the purpose of hurting the CDU still further and driving them into the arms of the AfD. It is a strategy the left first tried during the federal election campaign, and one they have so far refused to abandon. Various preeminent Union personalities, eager to stop the destruction of their party, have demanded a change in course. These firewall-rethinkers include former CDU General Secretary Peter Tauber – the very man who played a leading role in devising the firewall strategy in the first place. Shortly after Stern published Tauber’s mild and very careful dissent, a series of CDU politicians from East Germany lined up to say that they, too, would desperately like to see a new approach to the AfD. As I type this, CDU leadership have withdrawn for a highly secret meeting to discuss this dilemma and how they will deal with the AfD in the future. Alas, endification is a powerful force. You can’t just turn it off. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose political instincts rival those of most earthworms, has used the days and hours ahead of this meeting to sing the praises of the firewall. In response to a journalist’s question last Tuesday, Merz intoned absurdly and for no reason at all that “We are the firewall!” And yesterday, at some political event in Sauerland, he ruled out cooperation with the AfD in any form – “at least not under me as party leader of the CDU.” Merz further claimed that “there is no common ground between the CDU and the AfD” and complained that AfD opposition to the European Union, NATO and the European Monetary Union means that the party “is against everything that has made the Federal Republic of Germany great and strong over the past eight decades.” An inability to articulate why we have to keep doing a senseless thing, and the proliferation of obviously fake reasons for said senseless thing, are among the most telltale symptoms of endification. Thus I invite you to appreciate how dumb Merz’s arguments are: Whatever they got us in the past, EU initiatives and NATO-driven foreign policy are killing German industry. EU rules are presently blocking our attempts to increase natural gas power generation, without which our electricity grid will become totally unstable. The EU’s expanded Emissions Trading System (ETS2) from 2027 is set to make heating and transportation wildly more expensive than they have to be for zero reason. None of this is making Germany strong, but that’s not even the half of it. Lest you hope too hard that the AfD can fix any of this, you must remember that they can only govern federally with the CDU, and the Union will never go along with dropping the Euro, withdrawing from the EU or leaving NATO, even if the AfD were clearly demanding these things (which they’re mostly not). Merz’s objections are entirely moot. The firewall has caused an enormous amount of potential energy to accumulate in the German political system. Only three resolutions are conceivable: 1) The CDU convinces the SPD or other partners on the left to implement some bare minimum of the reforms necessary to slow or even stop deindustrialisation, rein in the runaway costs of the social welfare state and do something about mass migration. This would reduce AfD support, particularly in the West, and ease pressure on the party system more generally. 2) The left parties goad the Union into successfully requesting that the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe ban the AfD. In an instant, the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke would have de facto majorities not only in the Bundestag but across the state parliaments. After this judicial revolution, we would probably find ourselves in a second DDR-style regime, ruled by an unpopular, threatened and highly repressive left. 3) The firewall breaks down and after a substantial internal struggle, the CDU pursues some form of cooperation with the AfD federally. The left parties would turn on the Union across Germany, and the CDU would have to seek outright coalitions or toleration arrangements with the AfD in many state parliaments too. The political realignment would happen suddenly, in less than a few months. Of these three possibilities, 1) seems stupid and inconceivable. If the left were committed to governing with the Union, they would already be doing that. The nightmare disaster of 2) can only happen if the Union are dumb enough to let it, which indeed is possible, but I still favour 3) as the most likely outcome. At some point, in a way that is as yet unimaginable to us, the firewall will probably come down. The sooner this happens, the better it will be for the CDU. As the Union dithers, they are losing ground they may never regain and all the while more explosive energy is accumulating in the party system. If Union leadership were minimally rational, they would stop making public statements about how bad the AfD are and begin preparing this strategic shift behind the scenes, with all the bullying, bribing, threatening and coaxing that will require. Ten years of AfD demonisation have made this a mammoth task. But they are not doing that, because endification has made them stupid. They have to make things much, much worse for themselves first, only to end up in the same place two or three years later than they would’ve otherwise – poorer, weaker and worse off. Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 03:30