TIFFANY HSU2025年6月25日 America’s rivals celebrated as the Trump administration set out to dismantle its global influence and information infrastructure, including the media outlets that had helped market the United States as the world’s moral and cultural authority. 特朗普政府着手拆除美国的全球影响力和信息基础设施，包括那些曾帮助将美国塑造为全球道德和文化权威的媒体机构，美国的竞争对手对此拍手称快。 The editor in chief of RT, the Kremlin-backed news network, crowed about President Trump’s “awesome decision” to shut down Voice of America, the federally funded network that reports in countries with limited press freedom. “Today is a holiday for me and my colleagues!” 克里姆林宫支持的新闻媒体“今日俄罗斯”的主编对特朗普总统关闭美国之音这个“了不起的决定”赞不绝口，称“今天是我和同事们的节日”。美国之音是一家由联邦政府资助的新闻机构，在新闻自由受限的国家进行报道。 Hu Xijin, a former editor in chief of China’s state-run outlet Global Times, wrote that the paralysis of Voice of America and Radio Free Asia was “really gratifying” and, he hoped, “irreversible.” A top aide to Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary posted that he “couldn’t be happier” about the administration’s move in February to gut the agency that distributed foreign media funding. Officials in Cambodia and Cuba also welcomed the cuts. 中国官方媒体《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进写道，美国之音和自由亚洲电台的瘫痪“大快人心”，他希望这个局面“不可逆”。匈牙利总理欧尔班·维克托的一名高级助手发帖称，美国政府今年2月取缔了负责向外国媒体提供资金的机构，这让他“非常高兴”。柬埔寨和古巴的官员也对削减开支表示欢迎。 In the months since, China, Russia and other U.S. rivals have moved to commandeer the communications space abandoned by the Americans. They have pumped more money into their own global media endeavors, expanded social outreach programs abroad and cranked up the volume when publicizing popular cultural exports. 在那之后的几个月里，中国、俄罗斯和其他美国的竞争对手迅速抢占美国人拱手让出的传播空间。它们不仅大幅增加各自全球媒体业务的投入，扩大在海外的社会推广项目，还在本国流行文化出口方面加大了扶持力度。 Foreign policy experts say the Trump administration is not just losing its grip on the global megaphone but handing it off to its eager adversaries. In doing so, they said, the United States is relinquishing its primacy as a global influencer and neglecting its defenses against the damaging narratives and disinformation that could fill the vacuum. 外交政策专家指出，特朗普政府不仅正在失去全球话语的主导权，还把它拱手让给虎视眈眈的对手。专家认为，美国此举不仅放弃了自己作为全球影响力首要大国的地位，更是忽视了对可能趁虚而入填补真空的破坏性叙事和虚假信息的防御。 “What we’re doing, in a sense, is playing into their hands,” said Catherine Luther, a professor at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, who has studied Russian influence. “These states tend to be the leaders in creating the playbook for other countries to use.” “从某种意义上说，我们的所作所为正中它们下怀，”研究俄罗斯影响力的田纳西大学诺克斯维尔分校教授凯瑟琳·路德说。“这些国家往往是制定行动手册供其他国家使用的领导者。” The White House did not respond to a request for comment. 白宫没有回应置评请求。 The United States was a pioneer of global message management, carefully cultivating its international reputation using movies, music, news, and other totems of culture and media to project aspirational American appeal. Supporting communications — through programs like Voice of America and grants for local independent outlets — has always been a key component of that so-called soft power. 美国曾是全球信息管理的先驱，它利用电影、音乐、新闻和其他文化媒体图腾，精心塑造国际形象，展现美国的魅力。通过美国之音这样的项目和对本地独立媒体的资助支持传播，一直是所谓软实力的关键组成部分。 But since January, the Trump administration has shut down a foreign influence task force at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, closed a State Department office that tracked and countered global disinformation, and crippled other teams that helped safeguard the American brand from overseas falsehoods and malign propaganda campaigns. A former Trump speechwriter who is currently acting as the under secretary for public diplomacy, a role intended to engage and understand foreign audiences, once posted that “competent white men must be in charge if you want things to work.” 但自今年1月以来，特朗普政府解散了联邦调查局的一个外国影响力特别工作组，关闭了国务院一个追踪和反击全球虚假信息的办公室，并削弱了其他帮助保护美国的品牌不受海外谎言和恶意宣传活动影响的团队。特朗普的一名前演讲稿撰写人目前担任负责公共外交的副国务卿，其职责是接触和理解外国受众，他发帖称，“若想成事，就必须让有能力的白人来负责。” The agency overseeing government-funded media outlets like the Radio Free stations and Voice of America, which reached hundreds of millions of people internationally each week, was gutted. A White House press officer reacted on X with a post listing “goodbye” in 20 languages. (A federal appeals court in Washington ruled last month that the Trump administration could continue for now to withhold funding from the stations, which have scaled back their operations. Instead, experts said, the Trump administration is focusing on other expressions of might, such as economic pressure and military force.) 负责管理自由电台和美国之音等政府资助媒体的机构被裁撤，这些媒体每周在全球的受众达数亿人。一名白宫新闻官员在X上发贴，用20种语言写下“再见”作为回应。（华盛顿的一家联邦上诉法院上个月裁定，特朗普政府目前可以继续暂停对这些电台的资助，目前相关机构已经缩减了运营规模。专家们表示，特朗普政府正把重点转向其他表现实力的方式上，比如经济压力和军事力量。） “The soft power suicide of the U.S. will be incomprehensible to future historians who will be dumbfounded in their attempts to explain why the global leader voluntarily wrecked one of its greatest national assets,” wrote Jamie Shea, a British former official at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and current senior fellow at Friends of Europe, a research institution. 北大西洋公约组织前英国官员、现在智库“欧洲之友”担任高级研究员的杰米·谢伊写道：“未来的历史学家将无法理解美国的软实力自杀，他们在试图解释这个全球领导者为何自愿破坏其最大的国家资产之一时，将会感到茫然。” Many global powers now see a better chance to “wage friendship,” as one researcher said, without competition from the United States. 正如一位研究人员所说，随着美国的退出，许多全球大国正迎来“友谊攻势”的良机。 Sputnik, a Kremlin-backed media outlet, opened an office in Ethiopia in February and said it was planning more in South Africa and possibly Tanzania. Turkey’s national public broadcaster, TRT, delivers online news in dozens of languages and started a broadcast channel in Somalia this spring. 克里姆林宫支持的俄罗斯卫星通讯社今年2月在埃塞俄比亚开设了办事处，并计划在南非甚至有可能在坦桑尼亚开办事处。土耳其国家公共广播公司TRT以数十种语言提供在线新闻，并于今年春天在索马里开设了一个广播频道。 Fahrettin Altun, Turkey’s head of communications, said last month that the broadcaster contributed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s vision of a “Century of Turkey” by “being an alternative voice to the global media order” and pledged to help expand TRT’s “sphere of influence.” 土耳其通讯部门主管法赫列廷·阿尔顿上月表示，土耳其广播公司通过“成为全球媒体秩序的另一种声音”，为总统埃尔多安的“土耳其世纪”愿景做出了贡献，并承诺帮助扩大土耳其广播公司的“全球影响范围”。 In China, where global narrative domination has long been a public goal, the state news agency Xinhua said it had met with several Western media outlets in recent years to discuss distribution deals. China Daily, a state-run newspaper, increased its U.S. distribution budget in each of the past three years. 在中国，长期以来，主导全球叙事一直是公开的目标。国家通讯社新华社表示，近年来，它已与多家西方媒体会面，讨论内容发行协议。中国官方报纸《中国日报》在过去三年里，每年都提高了在美国的发行预算。 Chinese propaganda and disinformation campaigns have had spotty success resonating with foreign audiences. But Beijing has begun to recognize that the government is often not the most effective face for a charm offensive, said Shaoyu Yuan, a research fellow at Rutgers University’s Division of Global Affairs. Instead, global good will is frequently generated by social media influencers and private entrepreneurs, then amplified by state media and officials, he said. (The Chinese have faced some pushback on this front, as lawmakers in Washington take aim at imports such as TikTok, a popular video app, and DeepSeek, a chatbot app.) 中国的宣传和虚假信息运动在打动海外受众方面成效参差不齐。但罗格斯大学全球事务部研究员袁绍御说，北京已经开始认识到，在魅力攻势中，政府往往不是最有效的代言人。他说，相反，国际好感度往往是由社交媒体网红和私营企业家制造的，然后由国家媒体和官员加以放大传播。（中国在这方面遇到了一些阻力，华盛顿的立法者把矛头对准了流行视频应用TikTok和聊天机器人应用DeepSeek等来自中国的产品。） Last year, Chinese state media lauded the video game Black Myth: Wukong, which is based on a classic Chinese novel, as a challenger to an industry dominated by American companies. Ne Zha 2, a record-smashing Chinese game about a mythological demon child, was hailed by the government as “a new window for the world to see China.” 去年，中国官方媒体称赞根据中国古典小说改编的电子游戏《黑神话：悟空》对美国公司主导的游戏行业构成了挑战。破纪录的中国电影《哪吒2》讲述了一个神话中的魔童故事，被政府誉为“世界了解中国的新窗口”。 Chinese apps streaming short soap operas are causing a stir in Hollywood, giving the country a way to reach new audiences through channels they created themselves, rather than through foreign media outlets, according to state media. 据中国官方媒体报道，播放肥皂剧短视频的中国应用程序在好莱坞引起了轰动，这为中国提供了通过自创渠道而不是外国媒体接触新受众的途径。 “The U.S. has definitely turned inward,” Dr. Yuan said. “It’s created a very big gap in global influence, and in China, both official and private groups have noticed this and are beginning to adjust their strategies accordingly.” “美国确实转向了内顾战略，”袁绍御说。“这造成了全球影响力的巨大缺口，在中国，官方和民间团体都注意到了这一点，并开始相应地调整自己的战略。” Ideals once championed by Americans are being propped up by other governments. In a gauge of trust among Southeast Asians that a Singaporean research organization released this spring, the United States fell to third place behind the European Union and Japan. Last month, the European Union promised $6.2 million in emergency support for Radio Free Europe. The British government said this year that it was creating a soft-power council to help elevate Britain’s global standing. 曾经由美国人倡导的价值理念正被其他国家政府接棒。新加坡一家研究机构今年春天发布的东南亚人信任度调查中，美国跌至第三位，落后于欧盟和日本。上个月，欧盟承诺向自由欧洲电台提供620万美元的紧急援助。英国政府今年也表示，它正在创建一个软实力委员会，以帮助提升英国的全球地位。 Members of the British Parliament sought extended funding for the BBC World Service this year, explaining that the broadcaster “plays an indispensable role in the fight against misinformation” and that “where services have been cut, we have seen other countries rush in to fill the space.” A poll commissioned by the BBC and conducted in 18 countries this past winter found that people who watched RT or CGTN, a Chinese state news outlet, were far more likely to say they viewed China or Russia favorably (and to hold nondemocratic views). 英国议会成员今年寻求增加对BBC国际频道的拨款，他们解释说，BBC“在打击虚假信息方面发挥着不可或缺的作用”，而且“在服务被削减的地方，我们看到其他国家争相填补空缺”。去年冬天，BBC委托在18个国家进行的一项民意调查发现，观看RT或中国官方新闻媒体CGTN的人更有可能对中国或俄罗斯有好感（并更倾向于认同非民主观点）。 Now, there are signs that the Trump team may be reconsidering its approach. 现在，有迹象表明，特朗普团队可能正在酝酿政策转向。 After Israel attacked Iran this month, dozens of Voice of America workers who had been put on leave were abruptly called back to reactivate the Voice of America news broadcast in Persian, which is the most common language spoken in Iran. 本月以色列袭击伊朗后，数十名被停职的美国之音工作人员突然被召回，重新启动波斯语的美国之音新闻广播。波斯语是伊朗最常用的语言。 Over the following days, they produced dozens of videos and social media posts about the conflict, as well as several stories detailing the American role in possible peace talks and Mr. Trump’s timeline for considering military intervention. 接下来的几天里，他们制作了数十个关于这场冲突的视频和社交媒体帖子，还发表了几篇报道，详细介绍了美国在可能的和平谈判中扮演的角色，以及特朗普考虑军事干预的时间表。 Tiffany Hsu报道信息生态系统，包括外国影响、政治言论和虚假信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JULIAN E. BARNES, HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT, RONEN BERGMAN, MAGGIE HABERMAN, JONATHAN SWAN2025年6月25日周日的新闻发布会上，记者纷纷拍摄美国的伊朗核设施轰炸行动——“午夜之锤”——的图示。 Alex Brandon/Associated Press A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran set back the country’s nuclear program by only a few months, according to officials familiar with the findings. 据几名知情官员透露，美国一份初步的机密报告显示，美国对伊朗三处核设施的轰炸仅使该国核计划进度倒退数月。 The strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, the officials said the early findings concluded. 这些官员表示，初步调查结果显示，打击行动封堵了其中两处设施的入口，但未摧毁其地下建筑。 Before the attack, U.S. intelligence agencies had said that if Iran tried to rush to making a bomb, it would take about three months. After the U.S. bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program had been delayed, but by less than six months. 袭击前，美国情报机构曾表示，如果伊朗试图加速制造核弹，大约需要耗时三个月。在美国进行轰炸行动以及以色列空军进行数天打击之后，国防情报局的报告估计，该计划被推迟了，但延迟不到六个月。 The report also said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, which destroyed little of the nuclear material. Iran may have moved some of that to secret locations. 报告还称，伊朗在袭击前已经将大部分的浓缩铀转移，袭击摧毁的核原料极少。伊朗可能已将其中一部分原料转移到了秘密地点。 Some Israeli officials said they also believed that the Iranian government had maintained small covert enrichment facilities so it could continue its nuclear program in the event of an attack on the larger facilities. 一些以色列官员表示，他们也认为伊朗政府还保留着小型的秘密浓缩设施，以便在大型设施遭到攻击后还能继续推进核计划。 Other officials noted that the report found that the three nuclear sites — Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan — had suffered moderate to severe damage, with the facility at Natanz damaged the most. It is not clear whether the Iranians will try to rebuild the programs. 另有官员指出，该报告发现福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕这三处核设施遭受了中度到重度损坏，其中纳坦兹设施受损最严重。目前尚不清楚伊朗是否会尝试重建这些项目。 Former officials said that if Iran tried to quickly develop a bomb, it would be a relatively small and crude device. A miniaturized warhead would be far more difficult to produce, and the extent of damage to that more advanced research is not clear. 前官员表示，如果伊朗想迅速造出一枚核弹的话，那将是一个相对简陋的小装置。小型化弹头的技术难度要大得多，目前尚不清楚这种更先进的研究受到了多大程度的破坏。 Current and former military officials had cautioned before the strike that any effort to destroy the Fordo facility, which is buried more than 250 feet under a mountain, would probably require waves of airstrikes, with days or even weeks of pounding the same spots. 现任和前任军事官员在袭击前曾警告称，摧毁福尔多设施需要采用多轮打击，对同一地点进行连续数天甚至数周的轰炸，因为它深藏于山体下70多米的深处。 American warplanes did hit the same spots at least twice on Saturday. B-2s dropped 12 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs — often referred to as “bunker busters” — on Fordo, and six aboveground entry craters are now visible, according to Brian Carter, the Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute. 美军战机确于周六至少两次击中相同目标。据美国企业研究所中东项目主管布莱恩·卡特透露，B-2轰炸机向福尔多投下12枚GBU-57巨型钻地弹——常被称为“地堡克星”——现场可见六个地面入口弹坑。 But many military bomb experts believed that more than one day of strikes would be needed to complete the job. 但多名军事爆破专家认为，完成摧毁需多日的打击行动。 The initial damage assessment suggests that President Trump’s claim that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “obliterated” was overstated. Congress had been set to be briefed on the strike on Tuesday, and lawmakers were expected to ask about the findings, but the session was postponed. Senators are now set be briefed on Thursday, and House members on Friday. 初步毁伤评估表明，特朗普总统关于伊朗核设施遭“彻底摧毁”的说法言过其实。国会原定于周二听取关于此次袭击的简报，议员们预计会询问调查结果，但简报会因故推迟。参议院现定于周四听取简报，众议院则安排在周五。 Since the strikes, Mr. Trump has complained to advisers repeatedly about news reports that have questioned how much damage was done, said people with knowledge of the comments. He has also closely watched the public statements of other officials when they are asked about the damage to the nuclear facilities, they said. 据知情人士透露，空袭后，特朗普反复向顾问抱怨质疑打击效果的新闻报道。他们表示，总统还密切关注其他官员被问及伊朗核设施毁伤情况时的公开表态。 In a statement on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated Mr. Trump’s early assessment. 周二，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在一份声明中重申了特朗普早前的判断。 “Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” he said. “Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly.” “根据我们掌握的全部情报——我已经全部看过，轰炸行动彻底摧毁了伊朗制造核武的能力。我们的巨型炸弹精准命中每处目标点，效果完美。” Officials cautioned that the five-page classified report was only an initial assessment, and that others would follow as more information was collected and as Iran examined the three sites. One official said that the reports people in the administration had been shown were “mixed” but that more assessments were yet to be done. 官员们强调，这份五页的机密报告仅仅是一份初步评估，随着更多信息的收集以及伊朗对这三处地点进行检查，后续还会有更新。一位官员表示，政府内部人士所看到的报告“结论不一”，不过更多评估仍在进行中。 But the Defense Intelligence Agency report indicates that the sites were not damaged as much as some administration officials had hoped, and that Iran retains control of almost all of its nuclear material, meaning if it decides to make a nuclear weapon it might still be able to do so relatively quickly. 但国防情报局的报告指出，这些地点受损程度未达部分政府官员预期，而且伊朗仍留有几乎所有的核材料，这意味着如果它决定制造核武器，仍然能够相对迅速地做到。 Officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity because the findings of the report remain classified. 因报告内容涉密，本文受访官员均要求匿名。 The White House took issue with the assessment. Karoline Leavitt, a White House spokeswoman, said its findings were “flat-out wrong.” 白宫对此评估提出异议。白宫发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示，其结论“完全错误”。 “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” she said in a statement. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.” “泄露所谓评估报告显然意在贬低特朗普总统，诋毁执行完美任务摧毁伊朗核计划的英勇飞行员，”她在声明中说。“所有人都知道，当你将14枚3万磅炸弹精确投放到目标上时会发生什么：彻底摧毁。” Elements of the intelligence report were reported earlier by CNN. CNN此前已对这份情报报告的部分内容进行了报道。 The strikes badly damaged the electrical system at Fordo, officials said. It is not clear how long it will take Iran to gain access to the underground buildings, repair the electrical systems and reinstall equipment that was moved. 官员们表示，这些打击行动严重损坏了福尔多的电力系统。目前尚不清楚伊朗需要多长时间才能重新进入地下建筑、修复电力系统并重新安装已转移的设备。 Maxar Technologies公司提供的一张福尔多核设施的卫星图像。 There is no question that the bombing campaign “badly, badly damaged” the three sites, Mr. Carter said. 毫无疑问，这次轰炸行动“极其严重地损坏了”这三处设施，卡特说。 But initial Israeli damage assessments have also raised questions about the effectiveness of the strikes. Israeli defense officials said they had also collected evidence that the underground facilities at Fordo were not destroyed. 但以色列初步的评估结果，同样也对打击行动的效果提出了质疑。以国防官员表示，他们收集的证据表明，福尔多地下设施并未被摧毁。 Despite claims of the sites’ obliteration by Mr. Trump and Mr. Hegseth, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been more careful in describing the attack’s effects. 尽管特朗普和海格塞斯声称这些地点被彻底摧毁，参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军在描述袭击效果时则相对谨慎。 “This operation was designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure,” General Caine said that at the Sunday news conference. 他在周日记者会上表示：“这次行动旨在严重破坏伊朗的核武器基础设施。” The final battle damage assessment for the military operation against Iran, General Caine said on Sunday, standing next to Mr. Hegseth, was still to come. He said the initial assessment showed that all three sites “sustained severe damage and destruction.” 凯恩周日站在海格塞斯旁边表示，此次军事行动的毁伤效果尚未做出最终评估。他说，初步评估显示，所有三个地点均遭受“严重破坏和摧毁”。 General Caine added that it was “way too early” to assess how much of Iran’s nuclear program remained. 凯恩还表示，评估伊朗核计划保留下来多少还“为时过早”。 Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the former commander of Central Command, said in an interview, that he had “a lot of confidence in the weapons systems used.” But he added: “I’m not surprised that elements survived. That’s why you do battle damage assessments, because everything can go as planned but there are still other factors.” 前中央司令部司令约瑟夫·沃特尔将军受访时表示，他对“所用武器系统非常有信心。”不过，他也说：“有设施得以幸存也不意外。这正是为什么要开展评估的原因，即便一切按计划进行，仍存在其他变量因素。” At a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Democrats also struck a more cautionary note. 在周二的参议院听证会上，民主党人也持更谨慎的态度。 “We still await final battle damage assessments,” said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the senior Democrat on the Armed Services Committee. 罗得岛州参议员、军事委员会的资深民主党人杰克·里德说：“我们仍在等待最终的评估。” Representatives of the Defense Intelligence Agency did not respond to requests for comment. 国防情报局的代表未回应置评请求。 David E. Sanger对本文有报道贡献。 Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Ronen Bergman是《纽约时报杂志》记者，常驻特拉维夫。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 Jonathan Swan是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
CHOE SANG-HUN2025年6月25日韩国退伍军人在首尔的中国大使馆附近举行抗议，要求中国政府拆除在黄海的共同水域安装的钢结构设施，摄于今年4月。 Kim Jae-Hwan /SOPA Images, via Sipa USA, via Associated Press In recent years, China has towed a decommissioned offshore oil-drilling rig and two giant octagonal steel cages into the sea between China and South Korea, saying that the structures were used as deep-sea fish farms in shared waters. But South Koreans fear that they are more than that and could be used to expand China’s military influence. 最近几年里，中国将一个退役的海上石油钻井平台和两个巨大的八角形钢笼拖到中韩之间的海域，声称这些设施用于在共享水域建深海养鱼场。但韩国人担心用途不止于此，可能被用来扩大中国的军事影响力。 South Korea’s National Assembly formally took issue with the Chinese structures on Monday when its ocean and fisheries committee condemned them as “a threat to maritime safety,” in a resolution adopted with bipartisan support. Those fears were bolstered on Tuesday by a report from the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. 韩国国会周一正式对这些设施提出异议，国会的海洋水产委员会通过了一项得到两党支持的决议，谴责它们“对海上安全构成威胁”。总部设在华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心周二发布的一份报告进一步佐证了这种担忧。 “While available information suggests that the platforms are genuinely focused on aquaculture, concerns that the platforms may be dual-use are not unfounded, given China’s track record in the South China Sea,” said the report, which used satellite imagery and other data to track the installations. Dual-use refers to a second potential use for military purposes. “虽然现有信息表明这些平台确实主要用于水产养殖，但考虑到中国在南中国海的过往记录，对这些平台可能具有双重用途的担忧并非毫无根据，”该报告写道。报告使用了卫星图像和其他数据来追踪这些设施，双重用途指的是它们具有潜在的军事用途。 “Even without further expansion, the platforms are likely already collecting data that could have value for undersea navigation and detection,” the report said. “即使不进一步扩大，这些平台也可能已经在收集对海底导航和探测有价值的数据，”该报告写道。 South Koreans see striking parallels between the Chinese installations and what Beijing has done in the South China Sea. China initially built artificial islands there for civilian purposes, but they were gradually transformed into military outposts, leading to territorial disputes with countries including the Philippines and Vietnam. 在韩国人看来，中国的这些设施与它在南中国海的所作所为存在惊人的相似之处。中国在那里先是建了民用的人工岛，后来逐渐将这些岛改造为军事前哨，进而引发了与菲律宾、越南等国的领土争端。 The tensions creeping up around the Chinese platforms in the Yellow Sea — called the West Sea by Koreans — will likely become one of the first challenges faced by the government of President Lee Jae Myung, who took office this month. Mr. Lee has vowed to improve ties with Beijing while at the same time promising to strengthen his country’s alliance with Washington. Mr. Lee hopes to meet China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, South Korea, in November. 围绕中国在黄海（韩国人称之为西海）平台的紧张局势不断升级，很可能成为本月上任的李在明总统政府所面临的首批挑战。李在明已誓言要改善与中国的关系，同时也承诺加强韩美联盟。李在明希望在今年11月韩国庆州举行亚太经合组织峰会期间与中国最高领导人习近平见面。 When the two countries held talks in April on oceanic cooperation, South Korean officials expressed their “deep concern” about the Chinese structures, warning that they would not allow them to undermine Seoul’s rights, the South Korean Foreign Ministry said. But China insisted that the structures were nothing but deep-sea salmon farms. Both sides agreed to continue dialogue to resolve the dispute. 韩国外交部称，两国曾在今年4月就海洋合作问题举行会谈，韩国官员当时曾对中国的这些设施表示了“深切关注”，并警告，他们不会允许这些设施损害韩国的权利。但中国坚称相关设施只用于深海鲑鱼养殖场。双方同意继续对话以解决争端。 China’s growing assertiveness in the Yellow Sea comes at the same time Beijing has called for bilateral relations with Seoul to reach a “higher level” after Mr. Lee was sworn in as president. 中国在黄海日益强硬的同时，北京方面也呼吁李在明总统上任后让中韩双边关系“向更高水平迈进”。 That reflects Beijing’s carrot and stick approach with its neighbors. On one hand, it hopes to warm ties by offering Seoul economic inducements. On the other, China considers its dominance of regional waters a vital strategic interest, one that it feels it can pursue because of its military strength. 这反映了中国政府对邻国的“胡萝卜加大棒”政策。一方面，中国希望通过向韩国提供经济利益来改善两国关系；另一方面，中国认为本国在东亚水域的主导地位对其战略利益至关重要，中国觉得自己有能力凭借军事实力来追求这个目标。 In recent years, South Korea has become increasingly concerned about China’s military activities near the Korean Peninsula, including a growing number of Chinese warplanes flying near its airspace. In May, China’s newest and most-advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, conducted fighter jet drills in the Yellow Sea. China declared no-sail zones there while the drills were underway. 近年来，韩国已越来越担心中国在朝鲜半岛附近的军事活动，包括中国战机在离韩国领空不远的空域飞行频次越来越高。今年5月，中国最新、最先进的航母福建舰曾在黄海进行战斗机演习。演习期间，中国宣布该水域为禁航区。 “If China uses its structures in the West Sea for military purposes like monitoring, surveillance and disrupting sea routes and does so repeatedly and in an escalating scale, they will eventually threaten our jurisdiction in the West Sea,” said Chung Min-jeong, an analyst at the National Assembly Research Service. “South Korea, the United States and Japan will need to cooperate if China uses the West Sea structures to help blockade Taiwan.” “如果中国把它在西海（即黄海）的设施用于军事目的，比如监视、侦察以及扰乱海上航线，而且反复这样做，且规模不断扩大的话，最终将威胁我国在西海的管辖权，”韩国国会研究局的分析师郑珉正（音）说。“如果中国使用这些西海设施帮助封锁台湾的话，韩国、美国和日本将需要彼此合作。” China installed its aquaculture structures inside the so-called Provisional Measures Zone, or PMZ, which was created by South Korea and China through a bilateral agreement in 2001 to manage their overlapping exclusive economic zone, or EEZ, claims in the Yellow Sea. The agreement allows fishing activities from both sides but does not mention aquaculture, “leaving an ambiguity that will make it difficult for Seoul to convince Beijing to remove the platforms,” according to the C.S.I.S. report. 中国将水产养殖设施部署在所谓的暂定措施水域（简称PMZ）。这是韩中两国在2001年通过一个双边协议设立的，旨在管理双方在黄海主张的专属经济区存在重叠的问题。协议允许两国在该区开展渔业捕捞活动，但没有明确涵盖水产养殖，“这种不明确将使韩国政府难以说服中国政府将这些平台挪走，”战略与国际研究中心的报告写道。 The first floating fish-farm cage — the Shen Lan 1, which is 200 feet in diameter — was installed in 2018, and the larger Shan Lan 2 was added last year. The former oil-drilling rig was moved there in 2022, repurposed into a central operations hub. 直径近60米的第一个浮动鱼塘“深蓝1号”是2018年安装的，去年又安装了一个更大的浮动鱼塘“深蓝2号”。退役的海上石油钻井平台是在2022年拖到那里的，已被改建为一个中央作业枢纽。 Tensions flared in February when a South Korean ocean survey vessel attempted an on-site investigation, only to be forcibly blocked by Chinese coast guard ships and civilian vessels. South Korea also deployed patrol ships in the two-hour standoff. 今年2月，韩国一艘海洋调查船试图进入现场调查时，曾受到中国海警船和民用船只的强行阻挡，导致紧张局势骤然升级。韩国在这次持续了两个小时的对峙中还派出了巡逻船。 In a report this month, South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper cited satellite imagery that it said showed China remodeling several retired oil rigs for use as offshore support facilities for fish farms. 韩国的《朝鲜日报》本月曾报道称，卫星图像显示中国正在将几个退役的海上石油钻井平台改造为用于鱼类养殖场的海上辅助设施。 In their resolution adopted on Monday, South Korean lawmakers proposed that if China does not remove its facilities, South Korea should take “proportional” countermeasures, such as installing its own aquaculture facilities in the area and building a survey ship to increase monitoring of Chinese activities in the sea. 韩国议员在周一通过的决议中提出，如果中国不拆除这些设施的话，韩国应采取“相应”的对等措施，例如在该水域安装自己的水产养殖设施，以及为加强追踪中国在该海域的活动建造一艘调查船。 Berry Wang自香港对本文有报道贡献。 Choe Sang-Hun是时报驻首尔首席记者，报道韩国和朝鲜新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
FARNAZ FASSIHI, ADAM RASGON, ERIC SCHMITT, MICHAEL LEVENSON2025年6月24日伊朗周一袭击卡塔尔乌代德空军基地，一枚导弹被拦截。 Yousef Masoud for The New York Times Update: Iranian state television announced a cease-fire with Israel early Tuesday. 最新消息：伊朗国家电视台于周二凌晨宣布与以色列停火。 Iran fired missiles at a major United States military base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the American attack on three Iranian nuclear sites this past weekend. But President Trump, saying that Iran had given advance warning of the strike, immediately thanked Tehran for exercising restraint and said it was “time for peace.” 周一，伊朗向美国在卡塔尔的一个主要军事基地发射导弹，以报复美国上周末对伊朗三处核设施的袭击。但特朗普总统表示，伊朗提前发出了袭击的警告，他立即感谢德黑兰保持克制，并表示现在“是和平的时候了”。 Later, he announced on social media that Israel and Iran had agreed to a cease-fire after more than a week of tit-for-tat missile strikes and a weekend attack on Iranian nuclear facilities by American bombers and cruise missiles. 随后，他在社交媒体上宣布，在超过一周针锋相对的导弹袭击，以及美国轰炸机和巡航导弹在周末对伊朗核设施的袭击之后，以色列和伊朗已同意停火。 There was no immediate confirmation of a truce from Israel or Iran. 以伊双方均未立即确认停火。 Iran launched 14 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, but they caused no casualties, 13 were intercepted, and one was allowed to land because, Mr. Trump said, it was headed in a “nonthreatening direction.” The strike’s limited scale raised hopes that the Middle East region could avoid a wider conflagration. 伊朗周一向卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地发射了14枚导弹，但没有造成人员伤亡，其中13枚被拦截，还有一枚未被拦截，特朗普说，因为它飞向了“不构成威胁的方向”。此次空袭的规模有限，让人们认为中东地区有望避免更大范围冲突。 Mr. Trump, who appeared to be looking for an off-ramp from the conflict, described Iran’s barrage in a series of social media posts as “a very weak response” and said he hoped “they’ve gotten it all out of their ‘system.’” 特朗普似乎正在寻找摆脱这场冲突的方式，他在一系列社交媒体帖子中称伊朗的密集攻击是“非常微弱的回应”，并表示他希望“他们已经发泄完了情绪”。 “I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice,” he added, “which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.” “我要感谢伊朗提前通知我们，”他还说，“这使得没有人丧生，没有人受伤。也许伊朗现在可以着手实现该地区的和平与和谐，我将热情地鼓励以色列也这样做。” Writing in all-caps, he ended his posts: “CONGRATULATIONS WORLD, IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!” 他用大写字母结尾：“祝贺世界，是和平的时候了！” The Iranian strike came after the United States sent a squadron of B-2 stealth bombers on Sunday to unleash 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear site, Fordo, which is buried in the side of a mountain. The United States also used American submarines to launch 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. American officials said the attack severely damaged, but did not destroy, the Iranian nuclear sites. 在伊朗发动袭击之前，美国于周日派出了一个B-2隐形轰炸机中队，向伊朗戒备森严、埋藏在山体里的福尔多核设施发射了约13.6吨重的“地堡炸弹”。美国还用潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的核设施发射了30枚战斧巡航导弹。美国官员表示，这次袭击严重破坏了伊朗的核设施，但未将其完全摧毁。 As the world braced for the Iranian response, citizens in the region were warned to shelter in place. Qatar announced that it had closed its airspace before the missiles flew. Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates did the same after the attack. The closures disrupted flights into and out of Doha and Dubai, two major hubs of international air travel. 全世界都在为伊朗的反应做准备，该地区的民众被警告就地避难。卡塔尔宣布，在导弹发射前，它就已经关闭了领空。袭击发生后，巴林、伊拉克、科威特和阿拉伯联合酋长国也采取了同样的行动。机场关闭扰乱了进出多哈和迪拜这两个主要国际航空枢纽的航班。 A spokesman for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, Majed Al Ansari, called Iran’s strike a “flagrant violation” of Qatar’s sovereignty. Qatar and the United States said their forces had shot down the Iranian missiles. 卡塔尔外交部发言人马吉德·安萨里称伊朗的袭击是对卡塔尔主权的“公然侵犯”。卡塔尔和美国表示，他们的军队击落了伊朗的导弹。 周一，德黑兰街头一辆被烧毁的救护车。 The Pentagon said there were no reports of casualties after Al Udeid Air Base was attacked by short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles. It is the largest American military installation in the Middle East and the forward headquarters for the U.S. Central Command. It has 10,000 military and civilian personnel and is equipped with air defenses that had been on high alert in anticipation of the Iranian attack. 五角大楼表示，乌代德空军基地遭到短程和中程弹道导弹袭击后，没有人员伤亡报告。它是美国在中东最大的军事设施，也是美国中央司令部的前沿总部。它拥有1万名军事和文职人员，并配有防空系统，为应对伊朗可能的袭击，这些系统进入了高度戒备的状态。 Three Iranian officials familiar with Tehran’s plans confirmed that Iran had given advance notice of the attack — as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said that Iran needed to strike back at the United States but also wanted to allow both sides a possible off ramp. 三名了解德黑兰计划的伊朗官员证实，伊朗在袭击前发出了预警，以尽量减少伤亡。这些官员们表示，伊朗需要对美国进行反击，但也希望给双方留出可能的退路。 They described the strategy as similar to one Iran used in 2020 when it gave Iraq a heads up before firing ballistic missiles at two American bases in Iraq in the wake of the U.S. assassination of Iran’s top military commander, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani. 他们称，这一战略与伊朗在2020年使用的战略类似，当时在美国暗杀伊朗最高军事指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼少将之后，伊朗在向伊拉克的两个美国基地发射弹道导弹之前，也曾向伊拉克发出了预警。 An Israeli official also said that Iran had given a warning, though the official did not say through which channel or which country. The Israeli and Iranian officials all spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters. 一名以色列官员也证实，伊朗发出了警告，但该官员没有说明是通过哪个渠道或哪个国家发出的。由于讨论的是敏感的情报，以色列和伊朗官员都要求匿名。 Even though Iranian officials described the strike as calibrated to limit casualties, it had stoked fears that it could draw the United States further into a conflict that could ripple across the region. 尽管伊朗官员称这次袭击是为了限制伤亡，但仍引发外界担忧，它可能会把美国进一步拖入一场可能波及整个地区的冲突。 周一，卡塔尔多哈上空的拦截导弹。 Video verified by The New York Times and filmed from the Pearl Island, a man-made island in Doha, Qatar’s capital, appears to show about a half-dozen missile interceptors flying across the sky to shoot down incoming Iranian missiles on Monday. 经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，周一在卡塔尔首都多哈的人造岛屿珍珠岛拍摄的画面中，大约六枚导弹拦截器飞过天空，击落来袭的伊朗导弹。 Three residents of Doha said they heard what they believed to be several interceptions of missiles in the distance. Loud booms were heard, and lights were visible as they streaked upward, apparently part of a missile-defense system. Some objects were seen falling to earth. 多哈的三名居民表示，他们听见远处疑似发生多次导弹拦截的动静。巨响传来，可以看到向上飞去的灯光，显然是导弹防御系统的一部分。有人看到一些物体坠落地面。 World leaders had urged all sides to de-escalate the conflict. 世界各国领导人敦促各方缓和冲突。 “I call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said on social media Monday. “The spiral of chaos must end.” “我呼吁各方保持最大限度的克制，缓和局势，回到谈判桌，”法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙周一在社交媒体上表示。“混乱的漩涡必须结束。” 周日，以色列内斯齐奥纳，伊朗导弹袭击现场的应急人员。 The volleys of missile and drone attacks began earlier this month, when Israel started bombing Iran in order, it said, to eliminate the threat from Iran’s ballistic missiles and wipe out its nuclear program. Mr. Trump then ordered the United States to join the conflict with the strikes on Sunday. 本月早些时候，以色列对伊朗发起了导弹和无人机攻击，宣称旨在消除伊朗弹道导弹威胁并摧毁核计划。特朗普则于周日下令美军加入冲突实施打击。 Mr. Trump later pronounced the mission a “spectacular” success, saying the United States had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear sites. But the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, gave a more measured description of the mission’s results, saying an initial assessment showed the three nuclear sites had suffered “severe damage.” 特朗普后来宣布这次任务取得了“惊人”的成功，称美国“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核设施。但参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩上将对这次任务的结果给出了更为慎重的描述，称初步评估显示，这三个核设施遭受了“严重破坏”。 Senior U.S. officials later conceded they did not know the whereabouts of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade nuclear material. 美国高级官员后来承认，他们未能掌握伊朗储存的接近核弹级别的核材料的下落。 Before the Iranian missile strike, the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met in Russia on Monday with President Vladimir V. Putin, a key ally of Tehran. Mr. Putin denounced the American attack on the Iranian nuclear sites as “unfounded and unjustified” but stopped short of offering concrete support. 在伊朗发动导弹袭击之前，该国外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周一在俄罗斯会见了德黑兰的重要盟友普京总统。普京谴责美国对伊朗核设施的袭击是“毫无根据和不合理的”，但没有提供具体的支持。 俄罗斯国家媒体发布的照片显示，总统普京和其他官员周一在克里姆林宫会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇（前排右一）。 With hopes for diplomacy appearing to dim, the Israeli military continued to pound Iran on Monday, with strikes targeting structures that belong to the Iranian government, according to the office of Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz. 以色列国防部长伊斯雷尔·卡茨的办公室称，由于通过外交手段解决问题的希望似乎很渺茫，以色列军方周一继续打击伊朗，袭击目标是属于伊朗政府的建筑。 The office said the Israeli strikes had targeted Evin prison, on a hilltop in northern Tehran, where hundreds of dissidents and political prisoners are held, along with the headquarters of the Basij, a volunteer force under the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that has cracked down on protests in Iran. 该办公室称，以色列的袭击目标包括德黑兰北部山顶的埃温监狱，那里关押着数百名异见者和政治犯，还有巴斯基总部，巴斯基是伊斯兰革命卫队旗下的志愿部队，它一直在镇压伊朗的抗议活动。 Evin prison has long been regarded as a symbol of repression, and rights groups and former prisoners say people are routinely tortured and executed there. 埃温监狱长期以来被视为镇压的象征，人权组织和前囚犯说，人们经常在那里受到酷刑折磨和处决。 Aaron Boxerman、Ronen Bergman、Ismaeel Naar、Euan Ward、Jonathan Swan、Michael D. Shear、Vivian Nereim、Anushka Patil、Jeanna Smialek、Matthew Mpoke Bigg、Aurelien Breeden、Anatoly Kurmanaev、Erika Solomon、Aric Toler和Amelia Nierenberg对本文有报道贡献。 Farnaz Fassihi是《纽约时报》联合国分社社长，领导时报对联合国的报道。她也报道伊朗议题，撰写有关中东冲突的文章已超过15年。 Adam Rasgon是时报驻耶路撒冷记者，报道以色列和巴勒斯坦事务。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Michael Levenson自纽约为时报报道突发新闻。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
MARK MAZZETTI, JONATHAN SWAN, MAGGIE HABERMAN, ERIC SCHMITT, HELENE COOPER2025年6月24日 Standing at the lectern in the White House briefing room on Thursday afternoon, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, read a message she said came “directly from the president.” 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特上周四下午站在白宫简报室的讲台上宣读了一份她说是“直接来自总统”的声明。 Because of the “substantial chance of negotiations” with Iran that could bring the United States back from the brink of jumping into the war in the Middle East, President Trump’s statement said, he would make a decision about whether or not to strike Iran “within the next two weeks.” 由于存在与伊朗“谈判的很大可能性”，或使美国免于卷入中东战争，总统将“在未来两周里”决定是否对伊朗进行打击。 Mr. Trump had been under pressure from the noninterventionist wing of his party to stay out of the conflict, and was having lunch that day with one of the most outspoken opponents of a bombing campaign, Stephen K. Bannon, fueling speculation that he might hold off. 特朗普一直受到来自共和党内部“不干涉派”让他不要卷入战争的压力。上周四那天，他曾与最直言不讳反对美国轰炸行动的人之一史蒂芬·班农一起共进午餐，引发了人们对特朗普可能会推迟行动的猜测。 It was almost entirely a deception. Mr. Trump had all but made up his mind to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities, and the military preparations were well underway for the complex attack. Less than 30 hours after Ms. Leavitt relayed his statement, he would give the order for an assault that put the United States in the middle of the latest conflict to break out in one of the world’s most volatile regions. 那几乎完全是障眼法。特朗普轰炸伊朗核设施的决心几乎已定，而且军方也已经在为这场复杂的攻击进行充分准备。莱维特转发了特朗普的声明不到30个小时后，特朗普就下令发动打击，让美国卷入了世界上最动荡地区之一最新爆发的一场冲突。 Mr. Trump’s “two weeks” statement was just one aspect of a broader effort at political and military misdirection that took place over eight chaotic days, from the first Israeli strikes against Iran to the moment when a fleet of B-2 stealth bombers took off from Missouri for the first American military strikes inside Iran since that country’s theocratic revolution in 1979. 特朗普的所谓“两周”声明，不过是混乱的八天里（从以色列对伊朗首次发动攻击起，到B-2隐形轰炸机编队从密苏里州升空）更广泛的政治和军事误导行动的冰山一角。这是自1979年伊朗神权革命以来，美国第一次对伊朗境内实施军事打击。 美国上周六向伊朗核设施投掷了炸弹后，记者们在屏幕前观看特朗普总统的全国讲话。 Interviews with administration officials, Trump allies and advisers, Pentagon officials and others familiar with the events show how, during this period, different factions of Mr. Trump’s allies jockeyed to win over a president who was listing in all directions over whether to choose war, diplomacy or some combination. 对政府官员、特朗普的盟友和顾问、五角大楼官员，以及其他知情人士的采访揭示，在这段时间里，特朗普盟友中的不同派系如何运用手段谋取影响总统决策，而此时的他在战争、外交，还是两种手段的某种结合之间犹豫不决。 Outsiders tried to divine which faction was ascendant based on whom Mr. Trump met with at any given time. Mr. Trump seemed almost gleeful in telling reporters that he could make a decision “one second before it’s due, because things change, especially with war.” 局外人试图通过特朗普在某个时间的会晤对象来揣测哪个派系占了上风。特朗普近乎得意地告诉记者，他可以在“到期前的一秒钟”做决定，“因为情况瞬息万变，尤其是战争。” All the while, Mr. Trump was making blustery statements indicating he was about to take the country into the conflict. “Everyone should evacuate Tehran!” he wrote on Monday last week on Truth Social, the social media platform he owns. The following day, he posted that he had not left a meeting of the Group of 7 in Canada to broker a Middle East cease-fire but for something “much bigger.” 与此同时，特朗普持续发表激烈言论，表示他准备让美国卷入冲突。“所有人都应该撤离德黑兰！”他上周一在自创社交媒体平台Truth Social上写道。次日他接着发帖称，提前离开在加拿大召开的七国集团峰会不是为了促成中东停火，而是为了“更大的事情”。 So, he told the world, “Stay tuned!” 于是，他向全球喊话：“拭目以待！” These public pronouncements generated angst at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command, where military planners began to worry that Mr. Trump was giving Iran too much warning about an impending strike. 这些公开声明在五角大楼和美国中央司令部引发了焦虑，军事规划人员开始担心，特朗普正在给予伊朗过多即将发动打击的预警。 They built their own deception into the attack plan: a second group of B-2 bombers that would leave Missouri and head west over the Pacific Ocean in a way that flight trackers would be able to monitor on Saturday. That left a misimpression, for many observers and presumably Iran, about the timing and path of the attack, which would come from another direction entirely. 他们把障眼法也放进了打击计划中：上周六，让第二组B-2轰炸机从密苏里起飞后向西穿越太平洋，刻意让飞行追踪器捕捉到航迹。这给许多观察人士、想必也包括伊朗对打击的时间和路径留下了一个错误印象，认为打击会来自一个完全不同的方向。 The strike plan was largely in place when Mr. Trump issued his Thursday statement about how he might take up to two weeks to decide to go to war with Iran. Refueling tankers and fighter jets had been moved into position, and the military was working on providing additional protection for American forces stationed in the region. 特朗普上周四发表关于可能需要最多两周时间来决定是否打击伊朗的声明时，打击计划已基本准备就绪。加油机和战斗机已进入状态，军方正加强中东地区驻军的防护部署。 While the “two weeks” statement bought the president more time for last-minute diplomacy, military officials said that ruse and the head fake with the B-2s also had the effect of cleaning up a mess — the telegraphing of the attack — that was partly of the president’s making. 虽然“两周”的声明为总统进行最后一刻的外交努力赢得了更多时间，但军方官员指出，这个障眼法和B-2轰炸机的假动作也起了清理混乱局面的作用——攻击意图提前泄露，而这在一定程度上也是总统自己造成的。 Asked to comment on the details of this article, Ms. Leavitt said the president and his team “successfully accomplished one of the most complex and historic military operations of all time” regarding Iran’s nuclear sites. She added that “many presidents have talked about this, but only President Trump had the guts to do it.” 当被要求对本文细节置评时，莱维特说，总统及其团队“对伊朗核设施成功实施了史上最复杂、最有历史意义的军事行动之一”。她还补充道，“虽然多位前任总统谈论过这件事，但只有特朗普总统有胆魄付诸行动。” A Shifting Tune 调子变了 特朗普今年4月在椭圆形办公室会见了以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡。 Mr. Trump had spent the early months of his administration warning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel against a strike on Iran. But by the morning of Friday, June 13, hours after the first Israeli attacks, Mr. Trump had changed his tune. 特朗普在执政的头几个月里曾一直警告以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡，不要对伊朗发动攻击。但在6月13日的那个周五上午，也就是以色列开始发起攻击数小时后，特朗普改变了态度。 He marveled to advisers about what he said was a brilliant Israeli military operation, which involved a series of precision strikes that killed key figures in Iran’s military leadership and blasted away strategic weapons sites. Mr. Trump took calls on his cellphone from reporters and began hailing the operation as “excellent” and “very successful” and hinting that he had much more to do with it than people realized. 他在顾问们面前大为赞叹以色列的军事行动，称其太棒了，这些军事行动包括一系列精确打击，击毙了伊朗军方领导层关键人物，摧毁了战略武器基地。特朗普用自己的手机接听了记者打来的电话，开始称赞以色列的行动“非常出色”、“非常成功”，并暗示自己发挥的作用远超外界认知。 Later that day, Mr. Trump asked an ally how the Israeli strikes were “playing.” He said that “everyone” was telling him he needed to get more involved, including potentially dropping 30,000-pound GBU-57 bombs on Fordo, the Iranian uranium-enrichment facility buried underneath a mountain south of Tehran. 当天晚些时候，特朗普问了一名盟友以色列的打击“进展如何”。他说“所有人”都对他说，他需要更多地参与进去，包括向位于德黑兰南部福尔多山下的伊朗铀浓缩设施投掷13.6吨重的GBU-57炸弹的可能性。 The next day, the president told another adviser he was leaning toward using those “bunker buster” bombs on Fordo, while taking pride in both the bomb’s destructive power and the fact that the United States is the only country that has the bomb in its arsenal. The adviser left the conversation convinced that Mr. Trump had already decided to bomb Iran’s nuclear sites. 第二天，总统对另一名顾问说，他倾向于对福尔多使用那些“碉堡克星”炸弹，同时为这种炸弹的破坏力以及美国是唯一拥有这种炸弹的国家感到自豪。这次对话让那名顾问对特朗普已做出了轰炸伊朗核设施的决定确信无疑。 At the same time, the president’s team was closely monitoring how their most prominent supporters were reacting on social media and on television to the prospect of the United States joining the war in a more visible way. 与此同时，总统团队密切关注他们最著名的支持者在社交媒体和电视上对美国以更公开的方式参与冲突的前景做何反应。 They paid close attention to the statements of Tucker Carlson, the influential podcaster and former Fox News host, who was vehemently opposed to the United States joining Israel in taking on Iran. Mr. Trump became infuriated by some of Mr. Carlson’s commentary and started complaining about him publicly and privately. 他们密切关注塔克·卡尔森的言论，这名颇有影响力的播客主持和福克斯新闻前主持人强烈反对美国加入以色列打击伊朗的行动。特朗普被卡尔森的一些言论激怒，并开始在公开场合和私下里对他表示不满。 Deliberations among administration officials about a possible American strike on Iran were in full swing by Sunday night, June 15, when Mr. Trump left for Canada for the Group of 7 meeting. Mr. Trump seemed to his advisers to be inching closer to approving a strike, even as he told them that Israel would be foolish to try to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. 到特朗普6月15日启程前往加拿大参加七国集团峰会的那个周日的晚间，政府内部就美国打击伊朗的讨论已白热化。在顾问们看来，特朗普似乎正朝着批准打击伊朗行动的方向靠近，尽管他对顾问们说，如果以色列试图暗杀伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊的话，那是愚蠢之举。 Moreover, he said, if the United States were to strike Iran, the goal should be to decimate its nuclear facilities, not to bring down its government. 此外，他还说，如果美国要打击伊朗的话，目标应该是摧毁伊朗的核设施，而不是颠覆它的政权。 The ‘Biggest Threat to Opsec’ 对行动保密的最大威胁 By then, a small group of top military officials at the Pentagon and U.S. Central Command in Tampa had already begun refining attack plans on the Fordo facility and other Iranian nuclear sites that military planners had drawn up years ago. 到那时，五角大楼和坦帕中央司令部的一小群高级军官已开始完善针对福尔多等几处伊朗核设施的打击方案，军事规划人员在数年前就制定了相关方案。 The planning was led by Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla, the Centcom commander, and Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs. 这项计划由中央司令部司令迈克尔·埃里克·库里拉将军和参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军领导。 一架对伊朗核设施完成了打击任务的B-2轰炸机周日返回到密苏里州怀特曼的空军基地。 B-2 stealth bombers, based at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, are the only warplanes capable of delivering the GBU-57 bombs without detection by Iranian radar. B-2 bomber pilots have done extensive rehearsals for extended-range missions like the one before them — crossing the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, refueling multiple times before syncing up with fighter jets for the final flight leg into Iran. 驻扎在密苏里州怀特曼空军基地的B-2隐形轰炸机是唯一能够投掷GBU-57炸弹且不被伊朗雷达侦测的战机。B-2轰炸机飞行员为像这次这样的远程任务进行了充分演练——它们穿越大西洋和地中海，数次空中加油，然后与战斗机协同，完成最后进入伊朗的航程。 But even as the military planning was being conducted in secrecy, each of Mr. Trump’s social media posts seemed to be telling the world what was coming. 然而，尽管军事计划在秘密进行，特朗普的每一条社交媒体帖文似乎都在向世界预告即将发生的事情。 The president, said one military official, was the “biggest threat to opsec,” or operational security, that the planning faced. 一位军官表示，总统是该计划“行动安全的最大威胁”。 Shaping the Conversation 舆论操控 By Tuesday, June 17, Mr. Trump had largely made up his mind to strike Iran. But he took his coercive diplomacy to a new level, issuing menacing threats over social media. 到6月17日周二，特朗普基本敲定要对伊朗动手。但他将胁迫性外交提升到了一个新水平，通过社交媒体放狠话。 “We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” he posted on Truth Social, adding, “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” He demanded, in all-caps, “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” “我们现已完全控制了伊朗的上空，”他在Truth Social平台上宣称，还说：“我们精准掌握了所谓‘最高领袖’的藏身地点。他就是个靶子，但他是安全的——我们不会除掉他（杀死！），至少目前不会。”文末以全大写字母强调：“无条件投降！” By this point, several people in the anti-interventionist camp of Mr. Trump’s advisers realized they most likely could not prevent the president from hitting the Iranian nuclear facilities. So, they turned their focus on trying to ensure the American war did not spiral into an expansive “regime change” war. 此时，特朗普顾问团中的几位反干预派意识到，他们很可能无已法阻止总统攻击伊朗核设施。因此，他们将重心放在努力确保这场美国战争不会升级为一场全面“政权更迭”的战争。 That day, June 17, Vice President JD Vance posted a long series of posts on social media that many within the anti-interventionist camp interpreted as him seeding the ground for a potential U.S. military operation and preemptively defending the president’s likely decision. On Thursday, Mr. Trump was joined for lunch at the White House by Mr. Bannon, one of the most prominent critics of U.S. involvement in Israel’s war with Iran. Some wishful thinkers in the anti-interventionist camp interpreted the meeting as a sign that Mr. Trump was getting cold feet. 当天，即6月17日，副总统JD·万斯在社交媒体上连续发帖，许多反干预派人士对此的解读是，他正在为美国可能的军事行动做铺垫，并预先为总统可能的决定进行辩护。上周四，班农在白宫与特朗普共进午餐，班农是美国介入以伊战争最著名的批评者。反干预阵营中一些抱有幻想的人将这次会面解读为总统临阵退缩的信号。 Ms. Leavitt reinforced that sentiment when she delivered Mr. Trump’s statement, not long after Mr. Bannon arrived at the White House, indicating that he had given himself up to two weeks to make a decision, a time frame he often invoked for decisions on complex issues when he had no clear plan. 班农抵达白宫不久，莱维特便宣读了总统的声明，强化了这种印象。特朗普在声明中说，他给自己两周时间来做决定，他在处理复杂的问题却没有明确计划时，经常声称需要两周时间。 But Mr. Trump had already dictated Ms. Leavitt’s statement before he met with Mr. Bannon. It was a calculated misdirection intended to buy some breathing room for the president while suggesting that no attack was imminent. 但特朗普在与班农会面之前就已经向莱维特口述了声明。这是一种蓄意的误导，旨在为总统争取一些喘息空间，同时暗示攻击并非迫在眉睫。 On Friday, Mr. Trump left the White House in the afternoon for a fund-raising event at his club in Bedminster, N.J., his main summer retreat, further feeding the impression that no attack was imminent. 上周五下午，特朗普离开白宫，前往他在新泽西州贝德明斯特的俱乐部参加一场筹款活动，该俱乐部是他的主要夏季休养地，这进一步强化了攻击并非迫在眉睫的印象。 But within hours, around 5 p.m. on Friday, Mr. Trump ordered the military to begin its Iran mission. Given the 18 hours it would take the B-2s to fly from Missouri to Iran, he knew he still had many more hours to change his mind, as he did at the last minute in 2019, when he ordered airstrikes against Iranian targets and then aborted them. 然而，数小时后，大约在周五下午5点，特朗普命令军方开始伊朗任务。考虑到B-2轰炸机从密苏里飞往伊朗需要18小时，他知道自己还有很多时间可以改变主意，就像他在2019年最后一刻所做的那样，当时他下令对伊朗目标进行空袭然后又取消了。 But few in his administration believed he would pull back this time. 但政府内部几乎无人相信此次他会撤回命令。 举着伊朗国旗和伊朗革命创始人阿亚图拉·霍梅尼（右）、伊朗最高领袖大阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊照片的抗议者们周日在德黑兰。 A One-Off, or Not 只是一次突袭，还是战争的前奏？ A complex and highly synchronized military operation began. Many hours after the two fleets of B-2s took off in opposite directions, the bombers bound for Iran joined up with fighter jets and flew into Iranian airspace. 一场高度协同的复杂军事行动就此展开。两支B-2编队朝相反方向起飞，数小时后，赴伊轰炸机编队与战斗机汇合突入伊朗领空。 American submarines launched 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles on the nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. 美国潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕的核设施发射了30枚战斧式巡航导弹。 As the planes approached Fordo and Natanz, the fighter jets swept in front of the bombers and fired strikes meant to suppress any surface-to-air missiles that Iran might muster, General Caine said in the Pentagon briefing on Sunday. 凯恩在周日的五角大楼简报会上表示，当飞机接近福尔多和纳坦兹时，战斗机飞到轰炸机前方发起打击，旨在压制伊朗任何可能的地对空导弹攻击。 At 2:10 a.m. Sunday morning Iran time, the lead bomber dropped two of the GBU-57 bombs on the Fordo site, buried deep under a mountainside and hundreds of feet of concrete. By the end of the mission, 14 of the “bunker buster” bombs had been dropped, the first time they had ever been used in combat. 伊朗时间周日凌晨2点10分，领头的轰炸机向福尔多设施投下了两枚GBU-57炸弹，该设施深埋于山体下数百英尺的混凝土中。任务最终共投下了14枚“碉堡克星”炸弹，这是它们首次在实战中使用。 Pentagon officials said Sunday that the American bombers and jet fighters never encountered any enemy fire. 五角大楼官员周日表示，美国战机未遭遇任何火力拦截。 Hours after the American aircraft had departed Iranian airspace, Mr. Trump gave a triumphant speech at the White House saying that the mission had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He suggested that the war could end with this one-off mission if Iran would give up its nuclear program and negotiate. 在美国飞机离开伊朗领空数小时后，特朗普在白宫发表了胜利讲话，称此次任务“彻底摧毁了”伊朗的核能力。他暗示，如果伊朗放弃核计划并进行谈判，这场战争就可以通过这次一次性任务而结束。 By Sunday afternoon, however, American officials had tempered the optimism of the night before, saying that Iran’s nuclear facilities might have been severely damaged, but not entirely destroyed. 然而，到上周日下午，美国官员降低了前一晚的乐观情绪，称伊朗的核设施或遭重创，但并未完全摧毁。 Mr. Vance acknowledged that there are questions about the whereabouts of Iran’s stock of near-bomb-grade uranium. He and Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that a regime change in Tehran — which could mean a protracted U.S. engagement — was not the goal. 万斯副总统坦言，伊朗近武器级铀储备的下落存疑。他与国务卿鲁比奥均强调，目标并非颠覆德黑兰政权，后者可能意味着美国卷入长期战争。 But Mr. Trump, whose operation was the subject of praise in news coverage not just from allies but some of his critics, had already moved on, hinting in a Truth Social post that his goals could be shifting. 特朗普的行动在媒体上赢得了盟友乃至部分批评者的赞誉，但他已经转向了新的焦点。他在Truth Social平台上发帖做出了暗示。 “It’s not politically correct to use the term, ‘Regime Change,’” he wrote, “but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime change???” “用‘政权更迭’这个词是政治上不正确的，”他写道，“但如果伊朗现政权做不到‘让伊朗再次伟大’，为什么不能有政权的更迭呢？？？” 麦克萨科技公司提供的卫星图像显示，美国的打击给伊朗福尔多的铀浓缩设施造成了破坏。 Mark Mazzetti是时报驻华盛顿调查记者，主要关注国家安全、情报和外交事务。他著有一本关于CIA的书。 Jonathan Swan是时报政治记者，报道2024年共同大选和特朗普的竞选活动。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG2025年6月24日中国常驻联合国代表傅聪周日在纽约联合国总部召开的安理会紧急会议上讲话。 Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images China said the United States has hurt its reputation as a global power and its diplomatic standing by attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities while it was engaged in talks with Tehran. 中国说，美国在与伊朗政府谈判期间打击伊朗的核设施损害了美国作为一个全球大国的声誉和外交名声。 “Iran is harmed, but also harmed is U.S. credibility — as a country and as a party to any international negotiations,” Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, told China’s state broadcaster on Sunday. “伊朗受到了伤害，但同样受损的，还有美国自身的信誉——无论是作为一个国家，还是作为任何国际谈判的参与方，”中国常驻联合国代表傅聪周日在中国的国家电视台上说。 In the battle for global narratives, China has long cast the United States as a warmonger and a destabilizing power while presenting itself as a responsible global leader championing peace and fairness. 在争夺全球叙事话语权的战斗中，中国长期以来一直将美国描绘为战争贩子和破坏稳定的力量，同时将自己表现为倡导和平与公正的负责任的全球领导者。 At an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Sunday, Mr. Fu said that China condemned the U.S. strikes and was joining Russia and Pakistan in drafting a U.N. resolution calling for a cease-fire, the safety of civilians and a start to peace negotiations. 傅聪在联合国安理会周日举行的紧急会议上说，中国谴责美国对伊朗核设施的打击，正在与俄罗斯和巴基斯坦一道起草一项联合国决议，呼吁停火，保护平民安全，启动和平谈判。 The criticism of the United States was echoed in Chinese state media reports on Monday, with the official news agency, Xinhua, accusing the United States of escalating violence in the region. 中国官媒周一发的报道呼应了傅聪对美国的批评，官方通讯社新华社指责美国加剧了中东地区的暴力冲突。 “The worsening situation in the Middle East is a stark reminder that power politics and military interventions lead to nothing but chaos and instability,” the article said. “中东局势的恶化清楚地提醒我们，强权政治和军事干预只会带来混乱和不稳定，”文章称。 In a separate editorial on Monday, the Communist Party tabloid, the Global Times, said the U.S. strikes had weakened “the foundation of the international security order.” 中共小报《环球时报》在周一的一篇社评中说，美国打击伊朗核设施削弱了“国际安全秩序的基础”。 On China’s heavily censored internet forums, users have left furious comments about how Iran was deceived into thinking it was negotiating a nuclear agreement with the United States, only to lower its guard and become the target of U.S. bombs. 在中国受到严格审查的互联网论坛上，用户们留下了愤怒评论，称伊朗被骗了，以为自己正在与美国进行核协议的谈判，放松了警惕，结果成为美国轰炸的目标。 China’s rhetoric belies a more complicated reality. Beijing has been one of Tehran’s biggest backers, diplomatically and economically. Its purchases of almost all of Iran’s oil exports have helped a brutal Iranian regime stay in power and deliver support to its terrorist proxies abroad, including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. 中国的这些说法掩盖了一个更为复杂的现实。中国一直是伊朗最重要的外交和经济支持者之一。它几乎包揽了伊朗所有的出口石油，这帮助维系了残暴的伊朗政权继续掌权，并为伊朗在海外的恐怖主义代理（包括哈马斯、真主党、胡塞武装分子）提供支持。 It remains to be seen how China might use its influence over Iran as fears of a broader conflict grow. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday urged China to persuade Tehran not to make good on a threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most vital waterways for the transport of oil. 随着对更广泛冲突的担忧加剧，中国将如何使用自己对伊朗的影响力还有待观察。美国国务卿马尔科·鲁比奥周日敦促中国劝说伊朗，不要执行封锁霍尔木兹海峡的威胁，这是世界上最重要的石油运输水道之一。 “China will certainly oppose Iran” closing the strait, said Wang Yiwei, the director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing, because of China’s need for access to Iranian oil. But it would only do so on its terms and in its own time, he suggested. “中国肯定会反对伊朗”封锁霍尔木兹海峡，中国人民大学国际问题研究所所长王义桅说，因为中国需要得到伊朗的石油。但中国只会按照自己的条件和自己的时间表来那样做，他暗示。 “However, it would be improper, or even counterproductive, to discuss this with the United States, or to exert pressure on Iran at the request of the United States,” he added. “但是，与美国讨论这件事，或按照美国的要求向伊朗施压不合适，甚至会适得其反，”他补充道。 When asked on Monday what China would do if Iran closed the strait, Guo Jiakun, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, deflected and called on the international community to “step up its efforts to promote the de-escalation of the conflict.” 在周一的例行记者会上，有记者问外交部发言人郭嘉昆，如果伊朗封锁海峡，中国将采取什么措施时，他避而不答，只是呼吁国际社会“加大努力，推动冲突降级”。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
袁莉2025年6月23日 Dongyan Xu Since the 1980s, more than 800 million Chinese have risen out of poverty. China’s middle class expanded from virtually no one to about 400 million. Villagers moved to cities. Tens of millions of people became the first in their families to attend college. 自20世纪80年代以来，超过8亿中国人摆脱了贫困。中国的中产阶级从几乎没有，扩大到大约4亿人。村民们搬到了城市。数以千万计的人成为家中第一个上大学的人。 Today, China’s economic growth has slowed. As wages stagnate and jobs disappear, the promise of upward social mobility is eroding, especially for those from modest backgrounds. 今天，中国的经济增长已经放缓。随着工资停滞不前，工作岗位逐渐消失，社会向上流动的希望正在破灭，尤其是对那些出身普通的人来说。 For many people like Boris Gao, the Chinese Dream no longer feels achievable. 对许多像鲍里斯·高（音）这样的人来说，中国梦已经遥不可及。 After Mr. Gao’s parents were laid off from their jobs at state-owned factories, his father drove a taxi and his mother stayed home. The family struggled to make ends meet. To save money, his mother canceled a text message service from his school, causing him to miss notifications of homework and school activities. 他的父母从国有工厂下岗后，父亲开出租车，母亲留在家里。一家人的生活捉襟见肘。为了省钱，母亲取消了学校的短信服务，导致他错过了家庭作业和学校活动的通知。 But Mr. Gao was exceptionally driven. After graduating from college in 2016, he worked hard, saved aggressively and attended a graduate program in Hong Kong. Since 2024, his job hunt has been an ordeal. One company asked him to work with no pay during a trial period. He quit a job after not being paid for two months. Another company rejected him because he was educated outside mainland China, making him politically unreliable, he was told. 但是鲍里斯·高特别努力。2016年大学毕业后，他勤奋工作，积极存钱，在香港读了研究生。自2024年以来，他的求职一波三折。一家公司要求他在试用期无偿工作。因为两个月未领到工资，他辞掉了另一份工作。还有一家公司拒绝他，是因为他在中国大陆以外接受教育，这使得他在政治上不可靠。 In one interview, he was asked about his parents’ professions, which is not unusual in China. “Your family has low social status,” Mr. Gao was told and did not get the job. 在一次面试中，他被问及父母的职业，这在中国并不罕见。“你的家庭社会地位很低，”鲍里斯·高被告知，并且没有得到这份工作。 “To them, perseverance is a defect,” he said. “If you have to struggle, it means you’re not good enough.” “对他们来说，坚持不懈是一种缺陷，”他说。“如果你必须拼命奋斗，那就意味着你不够好。” Anxiety over inequality is growing in China. Children of privilege inherit not only wealth but also prestigious jobs and powerful connections. Children of laborers and farmers, no matter how driven or well educated, often struggle to break through. 在中国，对不平等的焦虑正在加剧。特权家庭的子女不仅继承财富，还继承了有声望的工作和强大的关系网。而劳工和农民的孩子，无论多么努力或受过多么良好的教育，往往难以取得突破。 北京的大学生。在中国，对不平等的担忧与日俱增，因为即使受过教育也不一定能找到一份稳定的工作。 It’s a dynamic that would feel familiar to many in the United States and some other developed nations. But in China, the stakes are higher. The average standard of living is lower, and the social safety net is far more fragile. 这种情况，对于美国和其他一些发达国家的许多人来说都很熟悉。但在中国意味着更严重的后果。人们的平均生活水平更低，社会保障体系也更加脆弱。 The disillusionment is being captured sarcastically online. One buzzword is “Pindie,” a biting term for nepotism that means “competing through one’s father.” Another is “county Brahmins,” which lampoons small-town elites who gain status by monopolizing connections and jobs. 网络上以一种讽刺的方式捕捉到了这种幻灭感。其中一个流行语是“拼爹”， 这是一个对裙带关系的尖刻说法，意思是“靠父亲来竞争”。另一个流行语是“县城婆罗门”，讽刺那些通过垄断关系和工作获得地位的小镇精英。 The discontent over privilege boiled over recently when a trainee doctor in the center of an extramarital affair with a doctor appeared to have questionable credentials. People noted that her father led a big state-owned enterprise and that her mother was a senior official at a university. After an investigation, her medical license was revoked. 最近，一位与医生发生婚外情的实习医生被怀疑资质有问题，对特权的不满情绪随之爆发。人们注意到，她的父亲领导着一家大型国有企业，她的母亲是一所大学的高级官员。经过调查，她的行医执照被吊销。 The online debate fueled outrage that family ties, not merit, are what advance careers in China today. 网上的争论激起了人们的愤怒，认为在今天的中国，家庭关系，而不是价值，才是晋升的关键。 “At a time when competition for quality education is fierce and jobs are hard to find after graduation, fairness is not just a moral imperative,” wrote Hu Xijin, the retired editor of the official Global Times tabloid. “It is essential to maintaining social stability.” “在当前优质教育资源竞争激烈，毕业后工作难找的情况下，公平尤其是实现社会情绪平稳的关键事项，”官方小报《环球时报》退休主编胡锡进写道。 To understand this shift, I put out a call for Chinese people to write to me about their experiences in trying to move up from working-class backgrounds. All the responses I received were from men. I interviewed five of them, all between the ages of 25 and 49. They asked that I use only their family names or their English names because they feared government retribution. 为了理解这种转变，我呼吁中国人给我写信，告诉我他们从工人阶级出身努力向上发展的经历。我收到的所有回复都来自男性。我采访了其中的五位，年龄在25岁到49岁之间。由于担心政府的报复，他们要求我只使用他们的姓氏或英文名。 无论多么有抱负，工人和农民的子女在向上流动时往往都会面临巨大的障碍。 The two oldest in the group did not go to college but rode China’s wave of growth that took off at the start of the century. They are now worried they will slip back to where they started. 这群人中年龄最大的两位没有上过大学，但却搭上了本世纪初中国经济增长的便车。他们现在担心自己会倒退，回到起点。 One of those two, who asked that I use only his surname, Zhao, dropped out of high school and became a coal miner. For three years, he worked eight-hour shifts in dark, freezing mine shafts. Then he moved to Beijing to pursue acting and worked briefly as a film extra. 其中一位要求我只透露他姓赵，他高中辍学后成了一名煤矿工人。三年来，他在黑暗、冰冷的矿井里轮班工作，每班工作八小时。后来他搬到北京从事表演工作，做过一段时间的电影临时演员。 In 2014, China’s housing market was booming. Mr. Zhao started working in real estate. His $700 monthly pay matched what he had made as a miner, but, he said, “I could see the sun and live a normal life.” 2014年，中国房地产市场蓬勃发展。赵先生开始从事房地产工作。他每月约5000元的工资与他当矿工时的相当，但他说，“我可以看到太阳，过上正常的生活。” In 2017, he became a mortgage broker, and his pay increased several fold. One month in 2020, he earned $15,000. He married and bought a car. 2017年，他成了一名抵押贷款经纪人，工资增加了几倍。2020年的一个月，他赚了约10万元。他结婚了，还买了车。 Then the housing market collapsed. He has had no income for the past year. He has considered returning to the mines, but the thought of that dark world repelled him. Now Mr. Zhao, 38, and his wife live on her $500 monthly salary. Children are out of the question. 接着，房地产市场崩溃了。他去年没有任何收入。他曾考虑过回到矿上，但一想到那个黑暗的世界，他就感到厌恶。现在，38岁的赵先生和妻子靠她每月3500元的工资生活。要孩子是不可能的。 “I’m stuck in limbo,” he said. “The better life is out of reach, and I can’t fall low enough to start over. I have no idea what I should be doing.” “我进退两难，”他说。“更好的生活遥不可及，我又不能落到重新开始的地步。我不知道我该做什么。” The three younger men I interviewed, born in the 1990s, called themselves “small-town test-taking experts.” That is slang used to describe strivers who believed education would lift them up, only to find they were shut out of elite networks and stuck in dead-end jobs. 我采访的三位90后年轻人自称是“小镇做题家”。这是一个俗语，用来形容那些相信教育能提升地位的奋斗者，结果，他们却发现自己被精英网络拒之门外，从事着没有前途的工作。 The three men grew up in rural and working-class homes and rose above their parents’ social class through hard work and by attending universities. But they all learned it would be hard to fully escape their socioeconomic backgrounds. 这三个人在农村和工人阶级家庭长大，通过努力工作和上大学而超越了父母的社会阶层。但他们都知道，要完全摆脱自己的社会经济背景是很难的。 Two of them had to give up spots at leading foreign schools, one at Columbia University and the other at the London School of Economics, because of the cost. 其中两名学生因为学费问题，不得不放弃了外国名校的入学资格，一个人放弃了哥伦比亚大学，另一个人放弃了伦敦政治经济学院。 All three recalled that, when they were growing up, their parents had paid little attention to their education. 他们三个人都回忆说，在他们成长的过程中，父母很少关注他们的教育。 对一些中国学生来说，教育让他们看到了不平等。 Their experiences with education were the opposite of those of children in many of China’s upper-middle-class families. Those parents pushed their children into math and computer classes, and piano lessons and English tutoring. They are driven by the fear of letting their children “lose at the starting line.” These families may have more in common with their American peers than with China’s working class. 他们的教育经历与中国许多中上层家庭的孩子截然相反。这些父母强迫孩子去上数学和计算机课，钢琴课和英语辅导。他们害怕孩子“输在起跑线上”。与中国的工人阶级相比，这些家庭与美国同阶层家庭的共同点可能更多。 For the three small-town strivers I interviewed, their educations opened their eyes to inequality. 对于我采访的三位小镇做题家来说，他们所受的教育让他们看到了不平等。 One of them, Gary Liang, said most of the parents of classmates at his elementary school had worked at factories. When he was in high school, most parents were professionals. One student had a foreign English-language tutor. 其中一位名叫加里·梁（音）的学生说，他小学同学的父母大多在工厂工作。到他上中学的时候，大多数同学的父母都是白领。一个同学在家有英语外教。 The contrast was even more jarring when Mr. Liang entered a prestigious university in central China. The father of one of his roommates was a local-level Communist Party secretary; another roommate’s father was a university dean. 当加里·梁进入中国中部的一所名牌大学时，这种反差更加强烈。他的一个室友的父亲是地方党委书记；另一个室友的父亲是一所大学的院长。 While his roommates dined out, Mr. Liang got by on food from the university canteen and tutored high school students to earn some cash. At the time, he did not understand why his roommates spent so much time networking at school. 当室友去吃馆子的时候，加里·梁靠大学食堂勉强度日，给高中生当家教赚点外快。当时，他不明白室友们为什么要花那么多时间，在学校里建立关系网。 “It’s very unfair,” said Mr. Liang, who is now pursuing a Ph.D. in Japan. “You put in so much effort, and then you realize that some things are just a lot easier for other people, or not nearly as hard for them.” “这很不公平，”正在日本攻读博士学位的梁先生说。“你付出了如此多的努力，然后你意识到有些事情对其他人来说要容易得多，或者对他们来说没有那么难。” 中国广州一家制衣厂的夜班。 One sought-after path to move up in China runs through state-owned enterprises, which can offer elite, stable jobs. But landing one can require the right connections. 在中国，进入国有企业是炙手可热的晋升之路，国企可以提供稳定的精英职位。但要实现这一目标，可能需要合适的关系。 Josh Tang, a STEM graduate from a rural background, wanted to change his career from the grueling work culture of the tech industry. His father, a manual laborer who had once owned a small business, asked village relatives to help his son land a job at a bank. Mr. Tang submitted two applications but didn’t get an interview. 约西·唐（音）是一名农村出身的理科毕业生，他想改变自己的职业生涯，摆脱科技行业艰苦的工作文化。他的父亲是一名体力劳动者，曾经开过一家小公司，他请村里的亲戚帮儿子在银行找到一份工作。约西·唐提交了两份申请，但都没有得到面试机会。 When the economy was better, jobs at state-owned enterprises occasionally trickled down to people with his family background, said Mr. Tang, who went back to work in tech. But now, he added, “they’re viewed as the safest bets, so they circulate within the same class.” 后来又回到科技行业工作的约西·唐说，当经济好转时，国有企业的工作偶尔会流向他这种家庭背景的人，但现在，他说，“它们被视为最安全的选择，所以它们在同一个阶层中流动。” “They’re hoarded, not shared,” he said. “它们被囤积起来，不对外分享，”他说。 袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID E. SANGER2025年6月23日美国总统特朗普周六表示，如果伊朗不转向和平，它将遭受比迄今为止更大的“悲剧”。 Eric Lee for The New York Times Over the past two decades, the United States has used sanctions, sabotage, cyberattacks and diplomatic negotiations to try to slow what looked to most of the world like Iran’s long march to a nuclear weapon. 过去20年里，美国一直在使用制裁、破坏行动、网络攻击和外交谈判等手段，试图延缓伊朗在多数世人眼中迈向核武器的漫长进程。 At roughly 2:30 a.m. Sunday in Iran, President Trump unleashed a show of raw military might that each of his last four predecessors had deliberately avoided, for fear of plunging the United States into war in the Middle East. 周日凌晨2点30分左右，特朗普总统发动了一场其四位前任因担心将美国拖入中东战火而刻意回避的赤裸裸的武力展示。 After days of declaring that he could not take the risk that the mullahs and generals of Tehran who had survived Israel’s strikes would make a final leap to a nuclear weapon, he ordered a fleet of B-2 bombers halfway around the world to drop the most powerful conventional bombs on the most critical sites in Iran’s vast nuclear complexes. 几天来，他一直宣称，他不能冒险放任那些在以色列袭击中幸存下来的德黑兰毛拉和将军们完成最后一次飞跃，达到拥有核武器的地步。在此之后，他命令B-2轰炸机编队跨越大半个地球，向伊朗庞大的核设施中最关键的地点投下威力最大的常规炸弹。 The prime target was the deeply buried enrichment center at Fordo, which Israel was incapable of reaching. 首要目标是深埋在福尔多的浓缩中心，那里超出了以色列的打击能力。 For Mr. Trump, the decision to attack the nuclear infrastructure of a hostile nation represents the biggest — and potentially most dangerous — gamble of his second term. 对特朗普来说，决定攻击敌对国家的核基础设施是他第二个任期内最大的赌博，也可能是最危险的赌博。 He is betting that the United States can repel whatever retaliation Iran’s leadership orders against more than 40,000 American troops spread over bases throughout the region. All are within range of Tehran’s missile fleet, even after eight days of relentless attacks by Israel. And he is betting that he can deter a vastly debilitated Iran from using its familiar techniques — terrorism, hostage-taking and cyberattacks — as a more indirect line of attack to wreak revenge. 他赌的是无论伊朗领导人下令对驻扎在中东各处的4万多名美国驻军采取何种报复行动，美国都能将其击退。这些基地都在德黑兰导弹群的射程之内，即使是在以色列进行了八天持续攻击之后。他更是在赌美国可以阻止元气大伤的伊朗使用惯用手段——恐怖主义、劫持人质和网络攻击这类间接方式实施报复。 Most importantly, he is betting that he has destroyed Iran’s chances of ever reconstituting its nuclear program. That is an ambitious goal: Iran has made clear that, if attacked, it would exit the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and take its vast program underground. That is why Mr. Trump focused so much attention on destroying Fordo, the facility Iran built in secret that was publicly exposed by President Barack Obama in 2009. That is where Iran was producing almost all of the near-bomb-grade fuel that most alarmed the United States and its allies. 最重要的是，他在赌自己已经摧毁了伊朗重建核计划的机会。这是一个雄心勃勃的目标：伊朗已经明确表示，如果受到攻击，它将退出《核不扩散条约》，并将其庞大的核项目转入地下。这就是为什么特朗普如此关注摧毁伊朗秘密建造的福尔多设施，该设施在2009年被奥巴马总统公开曝光。伊朗此前在此生产令美国及其盟友极度恐慌的近武器级核燃料。 Mr. Trump’s aides were telling those allies on Saturday night that Washington’s sole mission was to destroy the nuclear program. They described the complex strike as a limited, contained operation akin to the special operation that killed Osama bin Laden in 2011. 周六晚上，特朗普的助手告诉这些盟友，华盛顿的唯一任务就是摧毁核计划。他们称这次复杂的打击是一次有限的可控行动，类似于2011年击毙奥萨马·本·拉登的特别行动。 “They explicitly said this was not a declaration of war,” one senior European diplomat said late Saturday, describing his conversation with a high-ranking administration official. “他们明确表示，这不是宣战，”一名欧洲高级外交官周六晚间在描述他与一名美国政府高级官员的谈话时说。 But, the diplomat added, bin Laden had killed 3,000 Americans. Iran had yet to build a bomb. 但是，这位外交官补充说，本·拉登杀死了3000名美国人。伊朗还没有造出核弹。 In short, the administration is arguing that it was engaged in an act of pre-emption, seeking to terminate a threat, not the Iranian regime. But it is far from clear that the Iranians will perceive it that way. In a brief address from the White House on Saturday night, flanked by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Mr. Trump threatened Iran with more destruction if it does not bend to his demands. 简而言之，政府辩称此举属先发制人，旨在消除威胁而非推翻伊朗政权。但伊朗人是否会这么认为还远不清楚。周六晚上，在副总统万斯、国务卿鲁比奥和国防部长海格塞斯的陪同下，特朗普在白宫发表了简短讲话。他威胁称，如果伊朗不屈服于他的要求，将会遭遇更猛烈的打击。 “Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace,” he said. “If they do not, future attacks will be far greater and a lot easier.” “伊朗，中东的恶霸，现在必须实现和平，”他说。“如果他们不这样做，未来的袭击规模将大得多，也容易得多。” “There will be either peace,” he added, “or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left.” He promised that if Iran did not relent, he would go after them “with precision, speed and skill.” “要么是和平，”他补充说，“要么伊朗会面临比我们在过去八天所目睹的更大的悲剧。记住，还有很多目标。”他承诺，如果伊朗不松口，他将“以精确、迅速和技巧”打击他们。 In essence, Mr. Trump was threatening to broaden his military partnership with Israel, which has spent the last eight days systematically targeting Iran’s top military and nuclear leadership, killing them in their beds, their laboratories and their bunkers. The United States initially separated itself from that operation. In the Trump administration’s first public statement about those strikes, Mr. Rubio emphasized that Israel took “unilateral action against Iran,” adding that the United States was “not involved.” 从本质上讲，特朗普是在威胁扩大与以色列的军事伙伴关系。过去八天里，以色列系统性地定点清除了伊朗的最高军事与核计划负责人，将他们杀死在床上、实验室和掩体中。美国最初与该行动划清界限。在特朗普政府就这些袭击发表的首次公开声明中，鲁比奥强调，以色列“对伊朗采取了单方面行动”，并补充说，美国“没有参与”。 But then, a few days ago, Mr. Trump mused on his social media platform about the ability of the United States to kill Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, anytime he wanted. And Saturday night, he made clear that the United States was all in, and that contrary to Mr. Rubio’s statement, the country was now deeply involved. 但几天前，特朗普在自己的社交媒体平台上若有所思地表示，美国有能力随时杀死伊朗86岁的最高领袖哈梅内伊。周六晚上，他明确表示，美国已经全力以赴，而且与鲁比奥的声明相反，美国现在已经深度参与其中。 Now, having set back Iran’s enrichment capability, Mr. Trump is clearly hoping that he can seize on a remarkable moment of weakness — the weakness that allowed the American B-2 bombers to fly in and out of Iranian territory with little resistance. 现在，在挫败了伊朗的铀浓缩能力之后，特朗普显然希望能抓住一个罕见的虚弱时刻——正是藉于此，美国B-2轰炸机得以在伊朗领土上几乎不受任何阻力地进出。 After Israel’s fierce retaliation for the Oct. 7, 2023 terror attacks that killed over a thousand Israeli civilians, Iran is suddenly bereft of its proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah. Its closest ally, Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, had to flee the country. And Russia and China, which formed a partnership of convenience with Iran, were nowhere to be seen after Israel attacked the country. 在以色列对2023年10月7日造成1000多名以色列平民死亡的恐怖袭击进行激烈报复之后，伊朗突然失去了哈马斯和真主党这两大代理人。它最亲密的盟友、叙利亚的巴沙尔·阿萨德不得不流亡海外。而与伊朗结成权宜伙伴关系的俄罗斯和中国，在以色列袭击伊朗后也不见踪影。 That left only the nuclear program as Iran’s ultimate defense. It was always more than just a scientific project — it was the symbol of Iranian resistance to the West, and the core of the leadership’s plan to hold on to power. 伊朗的最终防御手段只剩下核计划。它绝不仅仅是一个科研项目——它是伊朗抵抗西方的象征，也是领导层巩固政权计划的核心。 Along with the repression of dissent, the program had become the ultimate means of defense for the inheritors of the Iranian revolution that began in 1979. If the taking of 52 American hostages was Iran’s way of standing up to a far larger, far more powerful adversary in 1979, the nuclear program has been the symbol of resistance for the last two decades. 伴随着对异见的镇压，该计划已成为1979年开始的伊朗革命继承者的终极防御手段。如果说1979年劫持52名美国人质是伊朗对抗一个体量更大、实力更强的对手的方式，那么在过去20年里，核计划一直是抵抗精神的象征。 One day historians may well draw a line from those images of blindfolded Americans, who were held for 444 days, to the dropping of GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs on the mountainous redoubt called Fordo. They will probably ask whether the United States, its allies or the Iranians themselves could have played this differently. 有一天，历史学家很可能会把那些被蒙住眼睛关押了444天的美国人的画面，与投向山间堡垒福尔多的GBU-57钻地弹联系起来。他们可能会问，美国及其盟友，或伊朗人自己，是否可以采取不同的做法处理这些事件。 And they will almost certainly ask whether Mr. Trump’s gamble paid off. 他们几乎肯定会问，特朗普的赌博是否得到了回报。 His critics in Congress were already questioning his approach. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said Mr. Trump had acted “without consulting Congress, without a clear strategy, without regard to the consistent conclusions of the intelligence community” that Iran had made no decision to take the final steps to a bomb. 他在国会的批评者已经开始质疑他的做法。情报委员会民主党领袖、弗吉尼亚州参议员马克·华纳表示，特朗普的行动“没有征求国会的意见，没有制定明确的战略，没有考虑情报界的一致结论”——情报界的结论是，伊朗尚未决定迈出制造核弹的最后一步。 If Iran finds itself unable to respond effectively, if the ayatollah’s hold on power is now loosened, or if the country gives up its long-running nuclear ambitions, Mr. Trump will doubtless claim that only he was willing to use America’s military reach to achieve a goal his last four predecessors deemed too risky. 如果伊朗发现无法做出有效回应，如果阿亚图拉对权力的控制现在放松了，或者如果伊朗放弃了长期以来的核野心，特朗普无疑会声称，只有他愿意利用美国的军事力量来实现他的前四位前任认为过于冒险的目标。 But there is another possibility. Iran could slowly recover, its surviving nuclear scientists could take their skills underground and the country could follow the pathway lit by North Korea, with a race to build a bomb. Today, North Korea has 60 or more nuclear weapons by some intelligence estimates, an arsenal that probably makes it too powerful to attack. 但是还有另一种可能。伊朗可能会慢慢恢复，其幸存的核科学家可能会把他们的技能转入地下，这个国家可能会走上朝鲜开辟的道路，加速制造核弹。如今，据一些情报机构估计，朝鲜拥有60件或更多的核武器，这个核武库很可能已强大到无法被攻击。 That, Iran may conclude, is the only pathway to keep larger, hostile powers at bay, and to prevent the United States and Israel from carrying out an operation like the one that lit up the Iranian skies on Sunday morning. 伊朗可能会得出这样的结论：这是牵制更大的敌对势力，防止美国和以色列采取类似周日早上照亮伊朗天空行动的唯一途径。 David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
纪思道2025年6月23日 President Trump has claimed a “spectacular military success” in destroying three sites in Iran; we’ll see if that’s true. What is clear is that he has pushed America into a war with Iran that he acknowledges may escalate. 特朗普总统宣称摧毁伊朗三处目标，取得“辉煌的军事胜利”——此说法是否属实仍有待验证。可以确定的是，他已将美国推入与伊朗的战争中，而且他也承认局势可能升级。 Beyond doubts about the legal basis for bombing Iran, I see risks for America and the world ahead revolving around three fundamental unknowns. 除了对轰炸伊朗的合法性存疑外，我认为美国和世界未来面临的风险围绕着三个根本性的未知因素展开。 The first uncertainty is how Iran will strike back at the United States. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously promised, “The harm the U.S. will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.” 第一个不确定性是伊朗将如何反击美国。伊朗最高领袖大阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊此前曾经放话：“如果美国军事介入这场冲突，将遭受无法挽回的后果。” Iran has many options, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. It could also mount cyberattacks, strike American embassies or support terrorist attacks. 伊朗手里的选项有不少，包括袭击美军在伊拉克、巴林及中东其他地区的基地。可能还有发动网络攻击、袭击美国大使馆，或者支持恐怖袭击。 Another option would be to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, fully or partly, by attacking shipping or by laying mines. That could be a blow to the world economy, for one-quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Experts have told me that they believe the United States could, over time, reopen the strait, but there might be economic and other costs. When Iran mined the strait in 1988, a mine crippled a U.S. Navy frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts. 另一个选择是通过攻击船只或布设水雷完全或部分关闭霍尔木兹海峡。这将重创世界经济，因为全球四分之一的石油输运要经过这里。多位专家告诉我，他们相信美国最终可以重新开放海峡，但需要付出经济和其他代价。1988年伊朗在该海峡布雷时，一颗水雷曾使美国海军护卫舰“塞缪尔·B·罗伯茨”号遭受重创。 When the United States assassinated Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general, in 2020, Iran launched a missile barrage at American bases in Iraq. A Ukrainian passenger jet was hit by accident, killing all 176 people aboard. 2020年，美国暗杀伊朗高级将领卡西姆·苏莱曼尼后，伊朗向伊拉克的美军基地发射了导弹。一架乌克兰客机被意外击中，机上176人全部遇难。 My guess is that Iran may want to strike back harder this time, partly to try to re-establish deterrence, but its capacity to do so may be more limited. Israeli strikes might have impaired its ability to mine the strait, for example, and doing so would also impede Iran’s oil shipments to China, annoying its friends in Beijing. 我推测，伊朗此次可能想进行更猛烈的报复，一定程度上是为了重树威慑力，但它可能力不从心。例如，以色列的打击可能已经削弱了它在该海峡的布雷能力，而且这样做也会阻碍它自己对中国的石油运输，从而触怒在北京的盟友。 But it’s worth remembering something James Mattis, a defense secretary in Trump’s first term, once said: “No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it over, but in fact, the enemy gets a vote.” 但需谨记特朗普第一任期的国防部长的詹姆斯·马蒂斯曾说过的话：“战争终局，不由己定。纵自认胜券在握，敌方仍有终局发言权。” The second uncertainty is whether the Israeli and American strikes have ended Iran’s nuclear efforts or perhaps even accelerated them. That depends, in part, on whether the bombing of Fordo and other sites was as successful as Trump claimed, and that may take time to figure out. 第二未知数是以色列与美国的打击究竟终结还是加速了伊朗的核计划。这部分取决于福尔多以及其他地点的轰炸是否如特朗普声称的那样取得成功，而这可能需要时间才能查明真相。 It was not clear beforehand that even 30,000-pound American bunker busters would be sufficient to destroy the Fordo enrichment site, which is buried deep in a rock mountain. We also don’t know if Iran has other centrifuges in another, unknown site. 即使15吨的美国地堡炸弹，事前也无法确定是否足以摧毁福尔多山体中的铀浓缩设施。我们也不知道伊朗是否在其他未知地点还藏有离心机。 There’s broad agreement that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a disaster and would lead other countries in the region to develop their own weapon programs. But Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence, publicly said this spring that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon; he was dismissive of that. 外界普遍认为，一个拥有核武器的伊朗将是一场灾难，并将导致该地区其他国家竞相发展自己的核武器项目。但特朗普的国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德今年春天公开表示，伊朗并未制造核武器，他认为该说法不足采信。 The risk is that Israeli and American attacks on Iran lead that country to decide it does need nuclear weapons. After all, if it had nuclear weapons, Israel would have been far less likely to bomb it. 风险在于，以色列和美国对伊朗的袭击可能导致该国决意发展核武器。毕竟，如果拥有核武器，以色列必不敢轻易轰炸。 Iran has already enriched enough fissile material to a high level for as many as 10 nuclear weapons, according to experts; that material was believed to be in the city of Isfahan. Trump said the U.S. struck Isfahan, but it’s not clear whether the site was destroyed. 专家指出，伊朗已浓缩足够多的高丰度裂变材料，可制造多达10枚核弹，据信这些材料存于伊斯法罕。特朗普称美军打击了该地，但摧毁与否不明。 The third and final question is the largest: Is this the end of the conflict or the beginning? 第三个未知数，也是最关键的一个问题：这究竟是冲突的结束还是开始？ Optimists such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel seem to believe that he and the United States can end both Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian regime. Then again, Netanyahu was a strong supporter of the Iraq war and thought that would bring change to Iran as well; instead, the Iraq war benefited Iran. 以色列总理内塔尼亚胡等乐观派认为，美以可终结伊朗的核计划及政权。但需注意，内塔尼亚胡曾是伊拉克战争的坚定支持者，曾希望其改变伊朗，结果伊拉克战争反使伊朗受益。 Even if Iran’s enrichment capacity is gone, the expertise to enrich uranium is probably not possible to extinguish. So if the regime remains, this may be more of a setback than an end to the nuclear program. 即使伊朗浓缩能力被毁，铀浓缩技术恐难消除。只要政权仍在，这可能只是核计划的一个挫折，而不是终结。 As for the idea that bombing will destroy the regime, there’s not much sign of that. Iranian dissidents, like the Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, decried the bombing last week and called on Trump to stop the bombing, not join it. 至于轰炸能否摧毁政权，目前没有什么迹象能证明这一点。伊朗的一些异议人士，如诺贝尔和平奖得主纳尔吉斯·穆罕默迪，上周谴责了以色列的轰炸行为，并呼吁特朗普止战而非参战。 In my travels in Iran, I’ve seen how unpopular the regime is. Iran — at the popular level — has always struck me as one of the most pro-American countries in the region, precisely because the government is so resented for corruption, hypocrisy and economic incompetence. 我在伊朗旅行时看到了这个政权多么不受欢迎。在民众层面，伊朗一直是我眼中该地区最亲美的国家之一，正是因为政府因腐败、虚伪和经济无能而引起民众的极大厌恶。 That pro-Americanism seemed to bode well for the future, after the death of the supreme leader. But a pro-American government seems less likely if we have waged war on Iran. Indeed, regime change might look more like a hard-line coup than anything else. Once again, the range of possibilities is immense, with some quite alarming. 在最高领袖去世后，这种亲美倾向本预示着美好的未来。但若美国对伊开战，亲美政府恐难以出现。事实上，政权更迭更有可能是一场强硬派发起的政变。可以预见的是，未来存在各种可能性，其中一些相当令人担忧。 Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland, framed the risks this way: “While we all agree that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon, Trump abandoned diplomatic efforts to achieve that goal and instead chose to unnecessarily endanger American lives, further threaten our armed forces in the region and risk pulling America into another long conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. intelligence community has repeatedly assessed that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. There was more time for diplomacy to work.” 马里兰州民主党参议员克里斯·范霍伦是这样阐述这些风险的：“尽管伊朗不能拥有核武器是大家的共识，但特朗普放弃了实现这一目标的外交努力，反而选择了不必要地危及美国人的生命，进一步威胁我们在该地区的武装力量，并冒着将美国拖入另一场中东长期冲突的风险。美国情报界多次评估认为，伊朗没有在制造核武器，本有更多时间通过外交手段解决。” That seems right to me. Trump’s speech was triumphant, but it’s much too early to be celebrating, and far too much uncertainty remains. 在我看来，此言甚为中肯。特朗普发表了胜利的演说，但庆祝为时过早，不确定性依然巨大。 纪思道(Nicholas Kristof) 2001起成为时报专栏作家，曾两次获得普利策奖。他最新出版的回忆录名为《追逐希望：一名记者的报道生涯》(“Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life”)。欢迎在Twitter上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT, JULIAN E. BARNES2025年6月23日一名美国官员说，六架B-2轰炸机向福尔多的核设施投下了12枚碉堡克星炸弹。 Sarah Silbiger/Reuters The U.S. strikes on nuclear sites in Iran are an extraordinary turn for a military that was supposed to be moving on from two decades of forever wars in the Middle East, and they put the United States back on war footing. 美国打击伊朗核设施的做法标志着一个极不寻常的转折，美军本应从长达20年的中东无休止战争中抽身，但这一举动却让美国再次准备在那里打仗。 Across the region, where more than 40,000 American troops are on bases and warships, the strikes ushered in a period of high alert as the Pentagon braced for almost-certain retaliation from Iran. 中东地区的基地和军舰上部署了逾4万名美军。这次打击行动让他们进入高度戒备状态，因为五角大楼已为伊朗几乎必将采取的报复行动做好准备。 President Trump announced on social media that three Iranian sites were hit, including the mountain facility at Fordo. The bombs used in the strikes are believed to include “bunker busters,” which are designed to destroy deep underground bunkers or well-buried weapons in highly protected facilities. 特朗普总统在社交媒体上宣布，美军打击了伊朗的三个核设施，包括位于福尔多山体下的的设施。打击使用的炸弹据说包括“碉堡克星”，这种炸弹是为摧毁深地掩体或被高度保护的地下武器设施设计的。 A U.S. official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence said that multiple 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs were dropped on Fordo, and that initial damage assessments indicated that the facility had been “taken off the table.” The attack was the first time the U.S. military had used the weapon in combat. 一名为了方便讨论涉密情报而要求不具名的美国官员说，美军对福尔多的核设施投下了多枚重达15吨的碉堡克星炸弹，初步的破坏评估表明，福尔多核设施已被“完全摧毁”。这次打击是美军首次在实战中使用这种炸弹。 The strikes, whether successful or not, are likely to trigger a fierce response. Tehran has vowed to strike at American bases in the Middle East, and American intelligence agencies confirmed before the strikes took place that Iran would take steps to widen the war and hit U.S. forces in the region. 无论此次打击是否成功，都可能引发激烈报复。伊朗政府已誓言要打击美国在中东的军事基地。美国情报机构在这次打击发生前就已确认，伊朗会采取步骤扩大战争，攻击位于该地区的美军部队。 U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence, said the strikes against the three nuclear sites were complete. The official said no follow-up attacks were expected, although commanders were ready to respond to any Iranian retaliation. 因为讨论的是情报而要求不具名的多名美国官员说，打击这三个核设施的行动已经完成。前述官员表示，虽然预计不会有后续打击，但指挥官们已为回应伊朗的任何报复行动做好准备。 A U.S. official said that six B-2 bombers dropped 12 bunker-buster bombs on Fordo, and Navy submarines fired 30 cruise missiles at Natanz and Isfahan. One B-2 also dropped two bunker-buster bombs on Natanz, the official said. The strikes are the culmination of years of planning by U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for operations in the region. But few thought those plans would be carried out so suddenly. They came more than a week after Israel launched attacks on Iran. 一名美国官员说，六架B-2轰炸机向福尔多核设施投下了12枚碉堡克星炸弹，海军潜艇向纳坦兹和伊斯法罕发射了30枚巡航导弹。该官员还表示，一架B-2轰炸机也向纳坦兹投下了两枚枚碉堡克星炸弹。美国中央司令部负责中东地区的行动，这次打击是该司令部多年筹划的最终实施。但几乎没有人预料到这些计划会如此突然地执行。美国的打击发生在以色列对伊朗发动攻击一周多后。 Iran responded with missile barrages of its own, as well as offers to resume negotiations over its nuclear development program. 伊朗用导弹回击了以色列的行动，也提出了重启有关其核研发计划的谈判。 Iran built the centrifuge facility at Fordo to prevent it from being attacked. In 1981, using F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, Israel bombed a nuclear facility near Baghdad as part of its effort to stop Iraq from acquiring nuclear weapons — a strike that basically stopped Iraq’s weapons program. That facility was above ground. 伊朗在福尔多建造离心机设施是为了防止遭受打击。以色列曾在1981年使用F-15和F-16战斗机轰炸了巴格达附近的一处地面核设施，作为阻止伊拉克获得核武器努力的一部分，那次打击基本上摧毁了伊拉克的核武器计划。 In its strikes on Iran, Israel has hit aboveground nuclear sites, but not Fordo. Only the United States has the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator — the formal name for the bomb needed to reach the site. Previous American administrations have refused to give the bomb to Israel. Israel’s Air Force also does not have the warplanes needed to carry it. 以色列在这次行动中也打击了伊朗的地面核设施，但未触及福尔多。只有美国拥有GBU-57巨型钻地弹（能打击福尔多设施的炸弹的正式名称）。美国的前几届政府一直拒绝把这种炸弹提供给以色列。以色列空军也没有能运载这种炸弹所需的战机。 The bombs have thick steel cases and contain a smaller amount of explosives than similarly sized general-purpose bombs. The heavy casings allow the munition to stay intact as it punches through soil, rock or concrete before detonating. 这种炸弹具有加厚钢外壳，其装药量低于同等体积的常规炸弹。重型外壳让炸弹在穿过土壤、岩石或混凝土直至引爆前完好无损。 Iran has many ways to retaliate, including naval assets and other capabilities it would need to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could pin any U.S. Navy ships in the Persian Gulf, American military officials say. Iranian officials have threatened to mine the strait if the United States joined Israel’s attack on the country. 美国军方官员指出，伊朗有许多报复的手段，包括动用海军力量和其他能力封锁霍尔木兹海峡，此举可能使美国在波斯湾的海军舰艇不能动弹。伊朗官员已威胁说，如果美国加入到以色列打击伊朗的行动中来，他们将在霍尔木兹海峡布雷。 The narrow 90-mile waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean is a key shipping route. A quarter of the world’s oil and 20 percent of the world’s liquefied natural gas passes through it. Mining the choke point would cause gas prices to soar. 这条连接波斯湾和外海的狭窄水道长约150公里，是一条重要的货运航道。全球25%的石油和20%的液化天然气经此运输。在这个咽喉要地布雷将导致天然气价格飙升。 Earlier this week, American minesweepers and other Navy vessels began dispersing to avoid attack. 本周早些时候，美国的扫雷舰和其他海军舰艇已开始分散部署，以避免被袭。 In his first term, Mr. Trump authorized a drone strike that killed a powerful Iranian general in Baghdad. Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles fired at American troops in Iraq, leaving some 110 troops with traumatic brain injuries and unintentionally hitting a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people aboard. 特朗普上次担任总统期间曾授权了一次无人机空袭，打死了一名在巴格达访问的伊朗高级将领。作为报复，伊朗向驻伊拉克美军发射了大量导弹，给约110名美军士兵留下了脑外伤，并意外击中了一架乌克兰客机，导致机上176人全部遇难。 Iran would not need much preparation to attack U.S. air and naval bases in the region. The Iranian military has missile bases within easy striking range of Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. 伊朗不需要做太多准备就能打击中东地区的美国空军和海军基地。伊朗军队的导弹基地打击范围轻松涵盖巴林、卡塔尔以及阿联酋。 Indeed, American officials said earlier this week that Iran had prepared missiles and other military equipment for strikes on U.S. bases in the region. 其实，美国官员本周早些时候就已表示，伊朗早已为打击中东地区的美国基地做好了导弹和其他军事设施准备。 Anticipating such an attack, American forces in recent days have been fortifying air defenses. On Saturday, American officials said that additional U.S. Air Force F-22, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets from the United States had transited bases in Europe and were positioned in the Middle East, with more coming. 为了应对此类攻击，美军已在最近几天加强了空中防御。美国官员已在周六表示，美国空军从本土增派的F-22、F-16、F-35战机经欧洲基地中转，已部署到了中东，还有更多的战斗机要去那里。 The United States has already sent about three dozen refueling aircraft to Europe that could be used to assist those fighters in protecting American bases. 美国已将近40架加油机派往欧洲，它们可为那些战斗机提供支援以保护美军基地。 In addition, the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson, with 60 aircraft aboard, including F-35 fighter jets, is currently steaming in the Arabian Sea. A second carrier, the Nimitz, canceled a port call in Vietnam earlier this week to rush to the region, and is expected to arrive in the next few days, U.S. officials said. 此外，“卡尔·文森”号航空母舰目前正在阿拉伯海快速行驶，该航母载有包括F-35战斗机在内的60架飞机。美国官员说，另一艘航空母舰“尼米兹”号已在本周早些时候取消了在越南港口的停靠，正在赶往中东地区，预计将在未来几天到达。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。 Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID PIERSON, KEITH BRADSHER, BERRY WANG2025年6月20日以色列周一袭击伊朗国家广播公司后，德黑兰上空硝烟弥漫。 Majid Asgaripour/Wana News Agency, via Reuters When China helped negotiate a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, it hailed the breakthrough as a victory for Chinese diplomacy and a sign that America’s chief geopolitical rival had emerged as a major power broker in the Middle East. 2023年帮助伊朗和沙特阿拉伯谈判达成和平协议时，北京将这一突破誉为中国外交的胜利，表明美国的主要地缘政治对手已经成为中东地区重要的权力掮客。 But as President Trump openly ponders deploying American forces to join Israel in attacking Iran, the limits of China’s clout in the region are coming into focus. 但随着特朗普总统公开考虑部署美国军队，与以色列一起攻击伊朗，中国在该地区影响力的局限性也逐渐凸显。 China has much to lose from a runaway conflict. Half of the country’s oil imports move in tankers through the Strait of Hormuz on Iran’s southern coast. And Beijing has long counted on Tehran, its closest partner in the region, to push back against American influence. 一场失控的冲突会让中国损失惨重。中国一半的石油进口通过油轮，经由伊朗南部海岸的霍尔木兹海峡运输。长期以来，北京一直指望其在该地区最亲密的伙伴德黑兰来抵制美国的影响力。 But despite those strategic interests, China, which has little sway over the Trump administration, is unlikely to come to Iran’s defense militarily, especially if the United States gets involved. 但是，尽管有这些战略利益，对特朗普政府几乎没有影响力的中国不太可能在军事上保护伊朗，尤其是在美国介入的情况下。 “The reality is they don’t actually have the capability to insert Chinese forces to defend Iran’s installations,” said Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “What they would prefer to do is very quietly provide some material support, some rhetorical support and maybe some humanitarian aid.” “现实是，他们实际上没有能力派遣中国军队来保卫伊朗的设施，”华盛顿美国企业研究所高级研究员扎克·库珀说。“他们更愿意做的是低调地提供一些物质支持，一些口头上的支持，也许还有一些人道主义援助。” Though China favors stability in the Middle East, it could also gain if the United States gets roped into a prolonged war there, which might divert American troops, ships and other military resources away from Asia. 尽管希望中东保持稳定，但如果美国被拖入一场旷日持久的战争，中国也会受益，因为这可能会使美国的军队、舰船和其他军事资源从亚洲转移出去。 Whether Mr. Trump decides to strike Iran will offer lessons for Beijing that could shape its own geopolitical strategy. China will be trying to understand Mr. Trump’s approach to foreign policy and his willingness to use force. The outcome could influence Beijing’s assessment of whether the United States would come to the defense of Taiwan, the self-governed island that Beijing claims, should China decide to invade it. 无论特朗普是否决定打击伊朗，都将为北京提供可能影响其地缘政治战略的教训。中国将试图了解特朗普的外交政策方针，以及他使用武力的意愿。其结果可能会影响中国政府对美国是否会在中国决定入侵台湾的情况下保卫台湾的评估（台湾是中国声称拥有主权的自治岛屿）。 Despite China’s close relationship with Iran, its rhetoric about the current conflict has been strikingly measured at the highest levels. After its top leader, Xi Jinping, called for a cease-fire during a call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Thursday, a summary of the call released by the Chinese government did not overtly criticize Israel for violating Iran’s sovereignty. 尽管与伊朗关系密切，中国最高层对当前冲突的言辞却十分谨慎。中国最高领导人习近平周四与俄罗斯总统普京通话时呼吁停火，但中国政府发布的通话摘要并未公开批评以色列侵犯伊朗主权。 Mr. Xi also refrained from directly urging the United States not to attack Iran, saying only that the “international community, especially major powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, should make efforts to promote the cooling of the situation, rather than the opposite.” 习近平也没有直接敦促美国不要攻击伊朗，只是说“国际社会特别是对冲突当事方有特殊影响的大国要为推动局势降温作出努力，而不是相反”。 中国最高领导人习近平并未明确批评以色列侵犯伊朗主权。 When China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his counterpart in Israel, he expressed Beijing’s opposition to Israel’s attacks, according to the Chinese summary of the call. But he stopped short of saying that China “condemns” them, as he had in a call with Iran. 据中方的通话摘要，中国最高外交官王毅致电以色列外长，表达了北京对以色列袭击的反对。但他没有像他在与伊朗通话时所说的那样说中国“谴责”以色列。 In another call, with the foreign minister of Oman, Mr. Wang said that “we cannot sit idly by and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss,” according to a Chinese government statement. But it is unclear what, if any, specific efforts China has made to find a diplomatic solution. In any case, Israel would likely be skeptical of China’s neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023. 根据中国政府的声明，在与阿曼外长的另一次通话中，王毅说，“不能坐视地区局势滑向未知的深渊。”但目前尚不清楚中国是否为寻求外交解决方案做出了具体努力。无论如何，以色列可能会对中国作为调解人的中立态度持怀疑态度，因为中国与伊朗结盟，并与伊朗的巴勒斯坦盟友、在2023年10月袭击以色列的哈马斯接触。 China’s efforts, at least in public, have been focused on evacuating more than 1,000 of its citizens from Israel and Iran. 中国的努力，至少是公开的努力，都集中在从以色列和伊朗撤离1000多名中国公民上。 “Beijing is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of events and is prioritizing looking after Chinese citizens and assets in the region rather than any sort of broader diplomatic initiative,” said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department during President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s administration. “北京正在努力跟上事态的快速发展，并优先考虑照顾在该地区的中国公民和资产，而不是任何更广泛的外交倡议，”拜登总统执政期间在白宫和国务院担任中国政策高级官员的朱利安·格维茨说。 Discussions of the conflict on China’s heavily censored online forums have largely centered on the poor performance of Iran’s military and security apparatus, though some participants have noted the limits of China’s support for Iran. 在中国受到严格审查的网络论坛上，关于这场冲突的讨论主要集中在伊朗军事和安全机构的糟糕表现上，尽管一些参与者指出，中国对伊朗的支持是有限的。 Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said in a post that China could not provide Iran with “unconditional protection” and confront the United States and Israel militarily. He said Beijing could only exert pressure through the United Nations Security Council, of which China is a permanent member. 北京对外经济贸易大学的中东问题专家朱兆一在一篇文章中说，中国不可能向伊朗提供“无条件保护”，也不可能在军事上对抗美国和以色列。他说，北京只能通过联合国安理会施加压力，中国是安理会常任理事国。 “The turmoil in the Middle East is both a challenge and a test for China,” Mr. Zhu wrote. “中东动荡对中国既是挑战也是考验，”朱兆一写道。 China’s tempered response resembles that of its like-minded partner, Russia, which has done little more than issue statements of support for Iran, despite having received badly needed military aid from Tehran for its war in Ukraine. Both Beijing and Moscow were also seen as bystanders last year when their shared partner, the Assad regime, was overthrown in Syria. 中国的温和反应，和与其志同道合的伙伴俄罗斯相似，尽管俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中从德黑兰得到了急需的军事援助，但除了发表支持伊朗的声明外，中国几乎没有采取任何行动。去年，当双方共同的伙伴阿萨德政权在叙利亚被推翻时，北京和莫斯科也被认为是在袖手旁观。 Their relative absence raises questions about the cohesiveness of what some in Washington have called the “Axis of Upheaval” — the quartet of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which have drawn closer diplomatically and militarily around a common opposition to the U.S.-dominated world order. 两国的相对缺席让人们对华盛顿一些人所称的“动荡轴心”——中国、俄罗斯、伊朗和朝鲜这四个国家——的凝聚力产生了质疑。这四个国家在外交和军事上越来越紧密地团结在一起，共同反对美国主导的世界秩序。 Of the four nations, only China is deeply embedded in the global economy, which means it has much to lose from turmoil in the Middle East. It buys virtually all of Iran’s exported oil, at a discount, using clandestine tanker fleets to evade U.S. sanctions. And its ships depend on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport additional oil from Gulf states. 在这四个国家中，只有中国深深地融入了全球经济，这意味着中东的动荡将给该国带来惨重损失。中国以折扣价购买了伊朗几乎所有的出口石油，利用秘密油轮船队规避美国的制裁。它的船只如果从海湾国家运输更多的石油，必须安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。 Higher energy prices would present another major headache for Beijing, which is trying to turn its sluggish economy around. 对于正在努力扭转经济疲软局面的中国政府来说，能源价格上涨将是另一个令人头疼的问题。 Besides energy, Iran provides China with a crucial foothold in the Middle East for advancing its interests and countering the United States, which has tens of thousands of troops across the region. Beijing has cultivated closer ties with Gulf states for the same reasons. 除了能源之外，伊朗还为中国在中东提供了一个重要的立足点，以促进其利益和对抗在该地区拥有数万军队的美国。出于同样的原因，北京与海湾国家建立了更密切的关系。 Chinese analysts often argue that Beijing is an attractive mediator in the Middle East because it will not lecture other countries about issues like human rights. “It’s the only major power trusted by rival factions in the region, capable of achieving breakthroughs where the U.S. cannot,” said Wen Jing, a Middle East expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing. 中国的分析人士经常说，北京在中东是一个有吸引力的调解人，因为它不会在人权等问题上对其他国家说教。清华大学中东问题专家文晶说：“中国是该地区敌对派系唯一信任的大国，有能力在美国无法实现的领域取得突破。” But some Western analysts say China played only a small role in the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, toward the end of those negotiations. Washington has also been frustrated by Beijing’s reluctance to put pressure on Iran to stop Houthi rebels from attacking ships off the coast of Yemen, except in cases involving Chinese vessels. 但一些西方分析人士说，在伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的谈判中，中国只是在最后扮演了一个并重要的角色。华盛顿还对北京方面不愿向伊朗施压、要求其阻止胡塞叛军在也门沿海袭击船只——除非涉及中国船只——感到失望。 That unwillingness to apply pressure on its partners undercuts China’s standing in the Middle East, said Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for near Eastern affairs at the State Department who is now a senior adviser at Arnold and Porter, a Washington-based law firm. 美国国务院前近东事务助理国务卿、现为华盛顿律师事务所Arnold and Porter高级顾问的芭芭拉·利夫说，中国不愿对其合作伙伴施加压力，削弱了中国在中东的地位。 “Nobody is saying, ‘We better call up Beijing and see what they can do here,’ because Beijing has played a purely commercial and economic role,” Ms. Leaf said, describing the attitudes of Middle Eastern officials with whom she has spoken over the years. “没有人说，‘我们最好给北京打电话，看看他们能在这里做些什么，’因为北京一直扮演着纯粹的商业和经济角色，”利夫描述多年来与她交谈过的中东官员的态度。 “They just sort of take it as a given that China is going to look out for China,” she said. 她说：“他们会不假思索地觉得，中国只会为中国自己着想。” David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
LIZZIE DEARDEN, 王月眉2025年6月20日伦敦警方公布的邹镇豪涉案寓所照片。他的一贯手法是诱骗受害者至其住所后实施迷奸。 Metropolitan Police, via Reuters A Chinese student who drugged and raped women in London and in his home country was given a life sentence on Thursday in a case that a senior British police officer said had uncovered “one of the most prolific predators we’ve ever encountered.” 一名在中国和伦敦对女性下药并实施强奸的中国留学生于周四被判处无期徒刑。一名英国高级警官表示，该案“是我们遇到的作案次数最多的性侵惯犯之一”。 The student, Zou Zhenhao, 28, was convicted of attacks on 10 women in England and China between 2019 and 2023, but investigators said they had identified 50 further victims in videos he recorded using cameras inside his homes. 28岁的邹镇豪因在2019至2023年间于英国和中国性侵10名女性被定罪，但调查人员表示，通过在其住处摄像头拍摄的视频，已确认另有50名受害者。 At his sentencing hearing on Thursday, statements from three of his victims were read aloud, describing how they had been left suffering long-term psychological damage. One woman said she was “consumed by terror, confusion, anger and shame” after she regained consciousness following an attack. 在周四的量刑听证会上当庭宣读了三名受害者的陈述，她们描述了自己遭受的长期心理创伤。一名女性说，她在遭袭恢复意识后，“被恐惧、困惑、愤怒和羞耻所吞噬。” Originally from Dongguan, in the Guangdong Province of southeastern China, Mr. Zou was studying mechanical engineering at University College London at the time of the rapes. He targeted women he met through the student community, as well as by using social media and dating websites. The police said that all his victims are believed to be Chinese. 邹镇豪来自广东东莞，作案时系伦敦大学学院机械工程专业学生。他通过学生社群、社交媒体和约会网站物色作案对象。警方表示，据信所有受害者均为华裔。 Mr. Zou came from a wealthy family, and he said during the trial that his father worked in a “state-owned enterprise.” 邹镇豪家境富裕，他在庭审中表示，父亲在一家“国有企业”工作。 In a statement to the court, one of his victims said she initially feared the consequences of reporting Mr. Zou to the police, adding: “I know his family is very powerful in China, and he may blame me for ruining what was a potentially prosperous future.” 一名受害者在法庭陈述中表示，她最初因为担心后果而不敢报案，还说：“我知道他家在中国非常有势力，他可能会怪我毁了他的大好前程。” 自邹镇豪被定罪以来，警方呼吁其他可能的受害者主动联系警方。 Metropolitan Police Judge Rosina Cottage gave Mr. Zou a life sentence with a minimum term of 24 years before he can be considered for release. 罗西娜·科蒂奇法官判处邹镇豪终身监禁，24年内不得假释。 “You are a very bright young man, you appeared to the world to be well-to-do, ambitious and charming, but that charming mask hid the fact you were a sexual predator,” she told Mr. Zou, who showed no reaction as the sentence was handed down. “你是一个非常聪明的年轻人，在外人眼中，你光鲜体面、志向远大而且风度翩翩，但这层精心营造的魅力伪装，掩盖了你是一个性掠夺者的本质，”她对邹镇豪说道。宣判时，邹镇豪毫无反应。 Judge Cottage said that some of Mr. Zou’s victims had sent him messages challenging him about what he had done, but that he had “gaslit” them by telling them they had consented to sex. 科蒂奇法官表示，一些受害者曾给邹镇豪发消息，质问他的所作所为，但他却实施心理操控，坚称对方自愿发生关系。 The senior police officer who oversaw the investigation, Kevin Southworth, a commander in the Metropolitan Police in London, said that because Mr. Zou had incapacitated women with a cocktail of drugs that also affected memory, some victims may have “no idea what’s happened to them.” 负责此案的高级警官、伦敦警察厅高级警司凯文·索斯沃思表示，由于邹镇豪使用混合药物使女性丧失行为能力并影响记忆，一些受害者可能“完全不知道自己经历了什么”。 “The sad fact of it is that there may well be some women on those videos who we may never identify, either because the images are too poor or we just can’t find them,” he said in an interview with The New York Times this week. “让人难过的是，视频中有些女性或因画面模糊或因无法找到，将永远无法确认她们的身份，”他本周接受《纽约时报》采访时说。 Mr. Zou had a fixed modus operandi, Mr. Southworth said, where he would engineer social situations that would result in women visiting one of his two luxury London flats. He would then spike their drinks using a concoction of drugs that would render them physically incapacitated and temporarily unconscious. 索斯沃思披露，邹镇豪有一套固定的作案手法：刻意制造社交机会，诱使受害人前往其两处伦敦豪华公寓中的一处，通过在她们的饮料中掺入混合药物致其无法动弹，并短暂失去意识。 警方的照片展示了邹镇豪所用摄像头的部件。 Using a combination of hidden cameras and mobile phones, Mr. Zou then filmed himself raping the women and manipulating their bodies. He also kept items of jewelry and clothing after the attacks, some of which were committed only days apart. 邹镇豪随后利用隐藏摄像头和手机拍下强奸和摆弄受害者身体的过程。施暴后，他还留下受害者的首饰和衣物，其中部分案件相隔只有几天。 The jury at Mr. Zou’s trial was played videos of the 10 rapes he was charged with, and some jurors wept at the “extremely distressing” footage, the judge said. Some of the videos showed women regaining consciousness and begging him to stop. 法庭向陪审团播放了被控的10宗强奸案的视频，科蒂奇法官称，部分陪审员因“令人极度痛苦”的画面而落泪。视频显示有女性恢复意识后哀求他停手。 Seven of the 10 women Mr. Zou was jailed for raping were attacked in China, during visits there in 2022 and 2023; two were assaulted in a flat in Bloomsbury, central London, in 2019 or 2020; and one was in Mr. Zou’s most recent London residence, in Elephant and Castle, in the central part of the city, in May 2023. 10名受害者中有七人系2022至2023年邹镇豪在中国时遭其强暴；两人于2019或2020年在伦敦市中心布鲁姆斯伯里区的公寓遭受侵害；一人于2023年5月在位于伦敦象堡的住所遭侵害。 It was the victim of the last attack who first contacted the police, but she withdrew her report after doubting her memory and suffering a mental breakdown. 是最后一起袭击的受害者最先联系了警方，但她在怀疑自己的记忆并经历精神崩溃后撤回了报案。 The woman said she “felt a responsibility to warn others,” and posted an account of the attack on social media. Another victim recognized the description from her own experience in 2021 — and she had Mr. Zou’s name, address and phone number. 这名女子表示，她“感到有责任提醒他人”，并在社交媒体上发布了关于此次袭击的描述。2021年的一名受害者根据描述认出施暴者——她掌握着邹镇豪的姓名、住址及电话号码。 When police officers arrested him in January 2024, they realized the scale of his offenses. A search of his home uncovered drugs including butanediol and ketamine, hidden cameras, and several laptops and mobile phones, which contained the videos Mr. Zou recorded of his attacks. 2024年1月警方实施逮捕时方知犯罪情节的严重。对他的住所进行搜查后，警方发现了丁二醇、氯胺酮等药物，隐藏摄像头及多台笔记本电脑和手机，内存强奸作案视频。 Mr. Zou studied at Queen’s University Belfast from 2017 to 2019, then moved to London for a master’s degree and then a doctorate. He had flaunted the “trappings of wealth” including wearing a Rolex watch, Mr. Southworth said. Mr. Zou had also undergone a hair transplant and had cosmetic surgery on his face. 邹镇豪2017至2019年就读贝尔法斯特女王大学，后到伦敦攻读硕士及博士学位。索斯沃思称其常炫耀“财富象征”，比如佩戴劳力士手表，并曾进行植发和面部整形手术。 Investigators said that by convincing women to visit his home voluntarily, and then using alcohol as a carrier for drugs that would affect their memory, Mr. Zou tried to minimize the chance that his victims would go to the police. 调查人员表示，邹镇豪诱骗女性自愿前往他的住所，然后在酒里下药，影响受害者的记忆，竭力降低受害者报案的可能性。 “I think he is someone who is arrogant enough to believe they could get away with this,” Mr. Southworth said. 索斯沃思说：“此人狂妄到自以为能逍遥法外。” Mr. Zou was jailed for 11 counts of rape against 10 women, as well as for three counts of voyeurism, 12 counts of possession of extreme pornographic images, one of false imprisonment and eight of possession of drugs with intent to commit a sexual offense. 邹镇豪因针对10名女性犯下11宗强奸罪、三宗偷窥罪、12宗持有极端色情影像罪、一宗非法拘禁罪和八宗意图实施性犯罪而持有药物罪获刑。 Two victims gave evidence at the trial, and 24 other women who believe they were attacked by Mr. Zou have so far responded to an appeal launched by the Metropolitan Police when he was convicted in March. 有两名受害者在庭审中提供了证据，另有24名认为自己遭性侵的女性，对3月邹镇豪被定罪后伦敦警察厅发出的征集公告做出了回应。 The police said they had received assistance from the authorities in China, including arranging for a victim to give evidence by video link from the country. Mr. Southworth encouraged any other potential victims to come forward, saying they would be treated “with empathy, kindness and respect.” 警方表示他们得到了中方的协助，包括安排一名受害者通过视频连线从中国作证。索斯沃思鼓励其他可能的受害者站出来，表示她们将得到“同情、善意和尊重”。 Most Chinese news outlets who covered Mr. Zou’s conviction in March did not report his full name and blurred photos of his face. 多数中国媒体在3月报道邹镇豪定罪的新闻时隐去了他的全名，并对面部做了打码处理。 There were signs that discussion of the case was being censored on Chinese social media soon after the verdict. Posts on Weibo and WeChat, two popular social media platforms, about the case were deleted, and at least one account that shared them was temporarily shut down, according to China Digital Times, a website that tracks Chinese internet censorship. 判决公布后，中国社交媒体迅速出现审查迹象。据监测网络审查的网站——中国数字时代披露，微博和微信这两个热门社交平台上的相关帖子被删除，至少一个转发账号被临时封禁。 Some Chinese media outlets eventually posted about the case, including Jimu News, which is affiliated with state-controlled media in Hubei Province. But that report did not mention Mr. Zou’s wealth or family background. 一些中国媒体还是报道了此案，包括隶属于湖北省官方媒体的极目新闻。但该报道并未提及邹镇豪的财富状况或家庭背景。 王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者，常驻北京，撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年6月20日中国外卖巨头美团表示将斥资10亿美元在巴西开展业务。 Ng Han Guan/Associated Press Chinese companies urgently need to find new markets. Competition is intense at home, where the collapse of the real estate market has left consumers reluctant to spend. And escalating trade tensions have made it more difficult and costly to sell things in the United States and Europe, long two of the largest destinations for Chinese exports. 中国企业迫切需要寻找新市场。国内竞争激烈，房地产市场的崩溃导致消费者不愿消费。不断升级的贸易紧张局势使得在美国和欧洲销售商品变得更加困难和昂贵，而这两个地方长期以来一直是中国最大的出口目的地。 As a result, some of China’s biggest internet and e-commerce brands have set their sights on establishing themselves as household names in other parts of the world, like Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America. 因此，中国一些最大的互联网和电子商务品牌已将目光投向东南亚、中东和南美等世界其他地区，将自己打造成家喻户晓的品牌。 Brazil has emerged as the most coveted prize. Latin America’s largest economy, with a population of more than 200 million people, is a beacon for China’s delivery and ride-hailing companies looking to export their ruthlessly low-cost business models. Chinese e-commerce giants also see promise in Brazil as they seek new buyers for a flood of products after tariffs and other restrictions in the United States shut off their biggest export market. 巴西成为最令人觊觎的地方。这个有2亿多人口的拉美最大经济体令中国快递和网约车公司趋之若鹜，这些公司希望出口其极限压榨成本的商业模式。在美国的关税和其他限制关闭了中国最大的出口市场后，中国的电子商务巨头们正在为大量产品寻找新的买家，他们也在巴西看到了希望。 Meituan, China’s largest food delivery company, said in May that it would spend $1 billion to set up operations in Brazil. Mixue, the Chinese tea and dessert company that has eclipsed McDonald’s as the world’s biggest fast food chain, said it would hire thousands there. TikTok Shop, facing scrutiny in the United States and Britain about its Chinese parent company, launched in Brazil in May. 中国最大的外卖公司美团5月表示，将斥资10亿美元在巴西开展业务。超过麦当劳成为全球最大快餐连锁店的中国茶饮甜品公司蜜雪冰城表示，将在巴西招聘数万名员工。在美国和英国因其中国母公司面临审查的TikTok电商于5月登陆巴西。 蜜雪冰城现已成为全球最大的快餐连锁店，该公司表示将在巴西雇佣数千名员工，并将巴西食材融入其在中国的产品中。 “Chinese companies are finding it harder to grow domestically,” said Vey-Sern Ling, an equities adviser in Singapore at the private bank Union Bancaire Privée. “Exports and overseas expansion is one way to support continued growth.” “中国企业发现，在国内实现增长越来越困难，”新加坡私人银行联合银行的股票顾问卫森·林（音）表示。“出口和海外扩张是支持持续增长的一种方式。” Chinese interest in Brazil comes as the two countries deepen their economic ties. The overall value of trade between China and Brazil roughly doubled over the past decade, as Chinese companies bought Brazilian soybeans and consumers in Brazil bought Chinese cars and electronics. 中国对巴西的兴趣正值两国加深经济联系之际。过去10年，中国企业购买巴西大豆，巴西消费者购买中国汽车和电子产品，中巴贸易总额大约翻了一番。 Last month, while officials from Washington and Beijing were haggling over whether to roll back tariffs that had brought their trade to a standstill, Chinese companies announced plans to invest about $4.7 billion in Brazil. The investments include mining and renewable energy projects and expanded automotive manufacturing. 上个月，当华盛顿和北京的官员就是否取消导致两国贸易停滞的关税讨价还价时，中国企业宣布了在巴西投资约47亿美元的计划。这些投资包括矿业和可再生能源项目，以及扩大汽车制造业。 President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil also met with China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing. The two leaders have positioned their relationship as a counterweight to U.S. influence. 巴西总统卢拉也在北京会见了中国领导人习近平，两国领导人将两国的关系定位为一种制衡美国影响力的力量。 Analysts say the good will has given Chinese consumer companies confidence to bet on Brazil. “The relationship between the two countries is really good, and they expect it to be good for a while,” said Jianggan Li, the chief executive of Momentum Works, a consultancy in Singapore. 分析人士表示，这种亲善的关系让中国消费品企业有信心在巴西下注。新加坡咨询公司Momentum Works的首席执行官李江玕表示：“两国关系确实很好，他们预计这种好的关系会持续一段时间。” 中国东部某港口正在卸载来自巴西的大豆。过去十年，中巴贸易额大约翻了一番。 But Chinese companies are not assured of success in Brazil. Their tactics may draw scrutiny from regulators as they try to attract customers and hire local workers, said Mr. Li, who was previously an executive at Food Panda, which competes in Hong Kong with Meituan’s food delivery service, Keeta. 但中国企业在巴西未必能够取得成功。李江玕说，随着它们试图吸引客户和雇佣当地工人，它们的策略可能会受到监管机构的审查。李江玕曾担任Food Panda的高管，该公司曾在香港与美团旗下的外卖服务Keeta竞争。 Meituan is known for its cutthroat approach. In China, it operated at a loss for years while offering shoppers steep discounts in order to undercut competitors. In 2023, the company launched Keeta in Hong Kong, its first foray outside mainland China. In less than two years, Keeta drove one of Hong Kong’s main food delivery platforms, Deliveroo, out of the market. 美团以严酷无情的经商手段著称。在中国，该公司多年来一直处于亏损经营状态，同时向消费者提供大幅折扣，以压低竞争对手的价格。2023年，公司在香港推出了Keeta，是其首次进军中国大陆以外的市场。在不到两年的时间里，Keeta将香港主要的外卖平台之一户户送完全赶出了市场。 Meituan deployed similar tactics last year when it rolled out Keeta in Saudi Arabia, where it quickly became the dominant delivery platform in most major cities. 美团去年在沙特阿拉伯推出Keeta时也采取了类似的策略，该公司迅速成为沙特多数主要城市占主导地位的外卖平台。 Analysts expect Meituan to operate the same way in Brazil. The company’s focus will not be on turning a profit, but instead be on becoming the delivery app used by the highest number of people. 分析人士预计，美团在巴西也会以同样的方式运营。该公司的重点不是盈利，而是成为用户最多的外卖应用。 “When the Chinese companies go abroad, making money is the secondary priority — they want to dominate the market first,” said Heatherm Huang, a co-founder of Measurable A.I., a Hong Kong-based tech company that analyzes online shopping data for financial firms. “当中国公司走向海外时，赚钱是次要的——他们首先想要主导市场，”香港科技公司Measurable A.I.的联合创始人黄何说。该公司为金融公司分析网上购物数据。 Many Chinese consumer brands have already made inroads in Brazil. 许多中国消费品牌已经进入巴西市场。 The country is one of the largest markets for the fast-fashion retailer Shein, which has built three warehouses near São Paulo. 巴西是快时尚零售商希音最大的市场之一，该公司在圣保罗附近建了三个仓库。 Didi, known for running Uber out of China, took over a Brazilian start-up called 99 in 2018 and has been one of the main ride-hailing business in the country since. 以将Uber赶出中国而闻名的滴滴于2018年收购了一家名为99的巴西初创公司，自那以后一直是巴西主要的叫车服务之一。 中国电子商务公司Temu告诉巴西购物者，他们可以享受大幅折扣购买商品。 Temu, the international arm of the Chinese e-commerce firm Pinduoduo, started selling products to Brazilians last year. Temu’s main gimmick has been to tell shoppers that they are getting items at steep discounts, often 70 percent or more. 中国电商公司拼多多旗下的国际公司Temu去年开始向巴西人销售产品。Temu的主要卖点是让购物者能以大幅折扣（通常是70%甚至更高）买到商品。 The push to expand in places like Brazil is driven in part by increased competition in China, and restrictions and regulatory scrutiny in other major markets. 在巴西等地扩张的部分原因是中国日益激烈的竞争，以及其他主要市场的限制和监管审查。 Chinese e-commerce companies like Temu and Shein took a major hit in the United States last month when the Trump administration ended a policy that had allowed low-value packages from China to enter the country tax-free. Lawmakers in the European Union are debating a similar change. 上个月，特朗普政府结束了一项允许来自中国的低价值包裹免税进入美国的政策，给Temu和希音这样的中国电子商务公司造成重大打击。欧盟的立法者也在讨论类似的变化。 In Brazil, shipments from Temu and Shein have been hit with a tax on packages worth less than $50 since last year. But at 20 percent, the tax is less than half the rate now charged by the United States. 巴西从去年开始对来自Temu和希音价值低于50美元的包裹征税。但20%的税率还不到美国目前税率的一半。 The business models pioneered by Meituan and other Chinese internet companies have also raised concerns among Chinese regulators about the handling of user data and the treatment of delivery drivers. 美团和其它中国互联网公司开创的商业模式也引起了中国监管机构对用户数据处理和对快递骑手待遇的担忧。 Last year, a driver who worked such long delivery shifts that fellow drivers referred to him as the “order king” died while taking a break between deliveries, according to Chinese social media. After another driver fainted on the job and was hospitalized, Meituan published a report that said most of its drivers did not work such intense hours and made wages comparable to average salaries. 据中国社交媒体报道，去年，一名长时间送货的骑手在送货间隙休息时死亡，同行骑手称他为“跑单王”。另一名骑手在工作中晕倒并住院后，美团发布了一份报告，称其大多数骑手的工作时间没有这么长，工资与国内平均工资相当。 These sorts of incidents have prompted the Chinese government to issue rules for how e-commerce companies manage delivery workers. 此前，这类事件曾促使中国政府出台电子商务公司如何管理快递员的规定。 在中国，美团与其他外卖公司竞争激烈，并因其对待外卖员的方式面临监管机构的审查。 In February, competition intensified when the e-commerce giant JD launched a food delivery service in China. It and Meituan have tried to lure drivers from each other by offering increasingly generous, and costly, benefits. 今年2月，当电商巨头京东在中国推出外卖服务时，竞争加剧了。京东和美团试图通过越来越慷慨和昂贵的福利来吸引对方的骑手。 Meituan, Mixue and Temu did not respond to requests for comment. 美团、蜜雪冰城和Temu没有回应记者的置评请求。 “The golden time for Meituan’s food delivery business in China may be over,” said Ernan Cui, a consumer analyst at the research firm Gavekal Dragonomics in Beijing. Stricter regulation and tougher competition are “all adding pressure,” she said. “美团外卖业务在中国的黄金时代可能已经结束了，”北京研究机构佳富龙洲的消费者分析师崔尔南（音）说。她说，更严格的监管和更激烈的竞争“都在增加压力”。 China’s stagnant consumer economy is another reason Chinese companies believe expanding in places like Brazil is worth the risk, said Mr. Li of Momentum Works. “Finding extra growth in China is getting harder and harder,” he said. 中国停滞不前的消费经济是中国企业认为在巴西等地扩张值得冒险的另一个原因，Momentum Works的李江玕说。他说：“在中国寻求额外增长变得越来越困难。” Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ZIXU WANG, TIFFANY MAY2025年6月20日2024年，张家界国家森林公园。 Deng Daoli/Visual China Group, via Getty Images The towering sandstone pillars in central China that climb into the misty sky are renowned for their beauty, inspiring the alternate universe in the 2009 blockbuster “Avatar.” 中国中部高耸入云的砂岩峰林以其壮丽景致而闻名，2009年的大片《阿凡达》中的另一个宇宙就曾受其启发。 But in recent weeks, the national park of Zhangjiajie, the location of those stunning formations topped with pine trees, has become known for a sight far less appealing: mountains of trash. 但近几周，这处松树冠顶的绝美地貌所在地张家界国家公园却爆出一个远非迷人的景象：堆积如山的垃圾。 The government in Cili County in Hunan Province, which oversees the park, ordered a huge cleanup effort this month after videos posted by cave explorers of the garbage buildup spread widely. 在洞穴探险者发布的垃圾堆积视频在网上广泛传播后，负责管理该公园的湖南省慈利县政府本月下令开展大规模清理工作。 As of Wednesday, 51 metric tons of trash have been removed from two caves, according to the local authorities. 据当地政府称，截至周三，已从两个溶洞中清理出了51吨垃圾。 Villagers started dumping trash and pig manure in the caves in 2010, the official Xinhua news agency reported, after the county authorities banned the burning of waste. It took several years before the county’s trash collection services were able to deal with the amount of waste being disposed of, including from the county’s large pig-farming industry. 据官方媒体新华社报道，自2010年慈利县禁止焚烧垃圾后，村民们便开始在溶洞里倾倒垃圾和猪粪。几年后，该县的垃圾收集服务才有能力处理大量垃圾，包括来自该县大型生猪养殖业产生的垃圾。 A cave explorer and environmental activist who had posted some of the most widely shared videos said in a message that he was shocked when he saw the piles of manure and trash, which he said was seven or eight stories high. The limestone in the karst caves was stained so black that he initially mistook the waste for coal, he added. He spoke on the condition of being identified only by his online pseudonym, Xiaofugege, because of the sensitivity of environmental issues in China. 一名洞穴探险者和环保人士在社交媒体上发布了多条被广为转发的视频，他在受访时表示，当看到堆积如山，足有七八层楼高的粪便和垃圾时，他大感震惊。他还说，溶洞里的石灰岩被染成了黑色，以至于他最初误以为是煤。考虑到中国环境问题的敏感性，他要求只使用网名“小符哥哥”。 Local authorities said that of the 200 caves they had inspected, about two-thirds were contaminated, though drinking water in the region was found to be safe. The authorities have also suspended four officials and were investigating 12 livestock farms over the unlawful discharge of wastewater. 当地政府表示，在他们核查的200个溶洞中，约有三分之二受到污染，但确认该地区的饮用水水源安全。有关部门还对四名责任人停职检查，并正在调查12家非法排放废水的养殖场。 The authorities have also posted videos of the cleanup, with cranes hoisting trash from the depths of the caves. But these efforts were halted after toxic and flammable gases were detected in the caves, China Newsweek, a state outlet, reported. 有关部门还发布了清理工作的视频，视频中，起重机从溶洞深处吊起垃圾。但据官方媒体《中国新闻周刊》报道，在洞穴中发现有毒和可燃气体后，这些工作被叫停。 China has struggled with industrial pollution elsewhere. In 2011, a chemical company dumped 5,000 metric tons of chromium into reservoirs in Yunnan, in China’s southwest, killing fish and livestock, and poisoning the drinking water of thousands of people. 中国其他地方的工业污染问题同样严重。2011年，一家化工企业向西南省份云南的水库倾倒了5000吨铬渣，导致鱼类和牲畜死亡，成千上万人的饮用水遭受污染。 And for the past several years, the authorities in Bijie city in the southwestern province of Guizhou found that sewage water had contaminated the waterways, and that at least 12 of the surrounding karst caves were also clogged, in some cases with sewage water, others with manure, and still others with construction or household waste. 在过去的几年里，西南省份贵州的毕节市有关部门发现，污水污染了水道，周围至少有12个溶洞也遭堵塞，有些是被污水，有些是被粪便，还有些则充斥着建筑或生活垃圾。 Zixu Wang是时报记者/研究员，报道中国大陆和香港的新闻。 Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者，报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MEGHA RAJAGOPALAN2025年6月20日5月，俄罗斯士兵在纪念反法西斯战争胜利日的阅兵式上列队行进。自2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，黑客组织似乎对俄罗斯的目标更感兴趣了。 Maxim Shemetov/Reuters Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, groups linked to the Chinese government have repeatedly hacked Russian companies and government agencies in an apparent search for military secrets, according to cyberanalysts. 据网络威胁分析师称，自从俄乌战争爆发以来，与中国政府有关的组织多次侵入俄罗斯企业和政府机构的网络，似乎是为了搜寻军事机密。 The intrusions started accelerating in May 2022, just months after Moscow’s full-scale invasion. And they have continued steadily, with Chinese groups worming into Russian systems even as President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Xi Jinping of China publicly professed a momentous era of collaboration and friendship. 中国的网络黑客活动在2022年5月加速，也就是俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰仅数月后，而且此后一直在稳步进行，即便俄罗斯总统普京和中国国家主席习近平公开表示两国的合作与友谊进入一个重要时刻，中国组织也在不断渗透进俄罗斯的网络系统。 The hacking campaign shows that, despite this partnership and years of promises not to hack each other, China sees Russia as a vulnerable target. In 2023, one group, known as Sanyo, impersonated the email addresses of a major Russian engineering firm in the hunt for information on nuclear submarines, according to TeamT5, a Taiwan-based cybersecurity research firm that discovered the attack last year and linked it to the Chinese government. 这些黑客攻击行动表明，尽管两国有合作关系，而且多年来承诺互不攻击对方网络，但中国仍将俄罗斯视为一个易受攻击的目标。据台湾网络安全研究公司TeamT5的说法，2023年，一个名叫Sanyo的组织为猎取有关核潜艇的信息，冒用一家俄罗斯大型工程公司的电子邮件地址。TeamT5去年发现了那次攻击，并发现与中国政府有关。 China is far wealthier than Russia and has plenty of homegrown scientific and military expertise, but Chinese military experts often lament that Chinese troops lack battlefield experience. Experts say that China sees the war in Ukraine as a chance to collect information about modern warfare tactics, Western weaponry and what works against them. 虽然中国比俄罗斯富裕得多，而且自身并不缺乏科学和军事专业能力，但中国的军事专家们经常对中国军队缺乏实战经验感到遗憾。专家们认为，中国把俄乌战争视为收集有关现代战术、西方武器装备及其应对策略信息的一次机会。 “China likely seeks to gather intelligence on Russia’s activities, including on its military operation in Ukraine, defense developments and other geopolitical maneuvers,” said Che Chang, a researcher with TeamT5. “中国可能寻求收集俄罗斯活动的情报，包括俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动、国防发展，以及其他地缘政治方面的战略举措，”TeamT5的研究员张哲诚说。 It is unclear how successful these attempts have been, partly because Russian officials have never publicly acknowledged these intrusions. But a classified counterintelligence document from Russia’s domestic security agency, known as the F.S.B., makes clear that intelligence officials are concerned. The document, obtained by The New York Times, says that China is seeking Russian defense expertise and technology and is trying to learn from Russia’s military experience in Ukraine. The document refers to China as an “enemy.” 目前尚不清楚这些尝试取得了多大成功，部分原因是俄官员从未公开承认有过这些黑客活动。但俄罗斯联邦安全局的一份反情报保密文件明确表示，情报官员们对此担忧。《纽约时报》已获得了该文件，文件称，中国正在寻求俄罗斯的国防专业知识和技术，并试图从俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动中吸取经验。该文件把中国称为“敌人”。 With Mr. Putin largely cut off from the West, his country has come to rely on China to buy its oil and sell it technology that is essential to its war effort. Moscow and Beijing have formed a bloc against Washington and its allies, alarming Western leaders. The F.S.B. document presents a more complicated relationship than the “no-limits” partnership that Mr. Xi and Mr. Putin describe. 由于西方已基本上不再与普京打交道，他的国家日益依赖中国购买石油，并向其出售对战争努力至关重要的技术。俄罗斯已与中国结成一个共同对抗美国及其盟友的国家集团，这引起了西方领导人的担忧。俄罗斯联邦安全局的文件描述的两国关系比习近平和普京口里的“无止境”伙伴关系要复杂得多。 Allies have been known to spy on one another, but the extent of China’s hacking activities against Russia suggests both a higher level of mutual distrust and a reluctance by the Kremlin to share all that it is learning on the battlefield in Ukraine. 虽然盟友之间互相刺探情报是常有的事，但中国针对俄罗斯的黑客活动规模之大，既表明了一种更高程度的互不信任，也表明了克里姆林宫不愿与中国分享从乌克兰战场上获得的所有信息。 Drone warfare and software are of particular interest to China, the document says. 该文件称，中国对无人机的作战方法和软件尤其感兴趣。 “The war in Ukraine fundamentally shifted intelligence priorities for both countries,” said Itay Cohen, a senior researcher with the cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks who has followed Chinese hacking groups for years. Experts say, and the document indicates, that China wants to learn from Russia’s war experience to bolster its own preparedness for potential future conflicts. Taiwan, in particular, is a major potential flashpoint with the West. “俄乌战争从根本上改变了两国情报工作的重点，”网络安全公司Palo Alto Networks的高级研究员伊泰·科恩说，他多年来一直在追踪中国的黑客组织。专家们说，该文件表明，中国想学习俄罗斯的战争经验，以增强自身对未来潜在冲突的准备。具体来说，台湾是中国与西方国家发生冲突的一个潜在爆发点。 One Chinese government-funded group has targeted Rostec, the powerful Russian state-owned defense conglomerate, seeking information on satellite communications, radar and electronic warfare, according to Palo Alto Networks. Others have used malicious files, intended to exploit vulnerabilities in Microsoft Word, to penetrate Russian aviation industry targets and state bodies. 据Palo Alto Networks称，为获取有关卫星通信、雷达以及电子战的信息，一个由中国政府资助的组织已将俄罗斯实力雄厚的国有国防企业集团俄罗斯国家技术集团作为目标。另一些攻击者则利用恶意文件，意图通过微软Word的漏洞渗透进入俄罗斯航空业目标及国家机关。 Messages seeking comment were left with the Kremlin and the Chinese Embassy in Moscow. 克里姆林宫和中国驻莫斯科大使馆未回应置评请求。 Not all Chinese hacking groups operate at the behest of the government. But security experts have seen evidence of government ties. 并非所有的中国黑客组织都受政府指使。但安全专家已看到了它们与政府存在关联的证据。 The Russian cybersecurity firm Positive Technologies, for example, said in 2023 that cyberattacks had been mounted on several Russian targets, including in the aerospace, private security and defense sectors. The attackers used a tool known as Deed RAT, which is widely deployed by Chinese state-sponsored hackers. Cybersecurity experts say Deed RAT is considered “proprietary” among these groups, and is not available for purchase on the dark web like other malware tools. 例如，俄罗斯网络安全公司Positive Technologies曾在2023年表示，俄罗斯的多个目标遭到网络攻击，包括航空航天、私营保安企业，以及国防领域。黑客们使用了一种名为 Deed RAT的工具，中国政府支持的黑客普遍使用这种工具。网络安全专家们说，这些黑客组织把Deed RAT工具看作“专利品”，不像其他恶意软件工具那样能在暗网上买到。 That has enabled state-backed hacking groups in China to use it more widely because it is tough for their adversaries to find a way to combat the malware. 这使得中国政府支持的黑客组织能够更广泛地使用这个工具，因为他们的对手难以找到对抗该恶意软件的方法。 俄罗斯士兵在克里米亚辛菲罗波尔接收无人机，摄于2023年。俄罗斯国内安全机构的一份文件指出，中国尤其对无人机的作战方式感兴趣。 Chinese state-sponsored hacking groups have often targeted international companies and government institutions, including in the United States and Europe. But hacking groups appear to have become more interested in Russian targets after the country’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 中国政府支持的黑客组织经常把国际企业和外国政府机构作为目标，包括美国和欧洲的企业和机构。但自从俄罗斯2022年2月入侵了乌克兰后，这些黑客组织似乎对俄罗斯目标表现出更大兴趣。 Mr. Chang said he and his colleagues tracked several Chinese hacking groups targeting Russia. Among them was one of the country’s most active hacking groups, known as Mustang Panda. 张哲诚说，他和他的同事们追踪了几个针对俄罗斯目标的中国黑客组织，其中包括中国最活跃的黑客组织之一“野马熊猫”。 Little is known about Mustang Panda’s origins or where it operates inside China, according to researchers who have studied the group. Its activities often accompanied China’s Belt and Road economic development initiative, according to Rafe Pilling, director of threat intelligence at the security firm Sophos. As China invested in development projects in West Africa and Southeast Asia, he said, hacking soon followed. 据研究该组织的人说，外界对野马熊猫的起源以及它在中国境内的运作地点知之甚少。该组织的活动通常伴随着中国的“一带一路”经济发展倡议，安全公司Sophos的威胁情报总监雷夫·皮林说。他表示，随着中国在西非和东南亚投资发展项目，黑客活动也随之而来。 That is most likely because China invests in countries where it has political and economic interests, which motivates state-sponsored hackers, Mr. Pilling said. 皮林表示，这可能是因为中国在存在政治和经济利益的国家进行投资，引发了国家支持的黑客们的兴趣。 After Russia invaded Ukraine, TeamT5 said that Mustang Panda expanded its scope to target governmental organizations in Russia and the European Union. 俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，TeamT5说，野马熊猫扩大了攻击的目标范围，把俄罗斯和欧盟的政府机构也包括进来。 Mr. Pilling, who has been monitoring Mustang Panda’s activities for several years, says he suspects that the group is backed by China’s Ministry of State Security, its main intelligence body. The ministry supports threat groups that attack targets across the world, he said. In 2022, Mustang Panda targeted Russian military officials and border guard units near the Siberian border with China. 皮林多年来一直在追踪野马熊猫的活动，他说，他觉得该组织得到了中国主要的情报机构国家安全部的支持。他说，国安部支持攻击全球目标的中国黑客组织。2022年，野马熊猫曾把西伯利亚中国边境附近的俄罗斯军官和边防部队作为侵入目标。 “The targeting we’ve observed tends to be political and military intelligence gathering,” Mr. Pilling said. That is true of all Chinese hacking groups targeting Russia, he said. “I think of them as being one of the main tools that the Chinese state has for gathering political and economic intelligence.” “我们观察到的目标选择往往是为了收集政治和军事情报，”皮林说。所有针对俄罗斯的中国黑客组织都是这样，他说。“我认为它们是中国政府收集政治和经济情报的主要工具之一。” Mustang Panda has also attracted the attention of the American authorities. In January, the Justice Department and the F.BI. said that Mustang Panda’s malware had infected thousands of computer systems, seeking to steal information. Many of the targets were American, but the malware was also found on computers belonging to Chinese dissidents and European and Asian governments, according to a federal indictment. 野马熊猫也已引起了美国当局的注意。今年1月，美国司法部和联邦调查局称，野马熊猫的恶意软件已感染了数千个计算机系统，试图窃取信息。据一份联邦起诉书，虽然许多目标针对的是美国人，但中国的异见人士以及欧洲和亚洲政府的计算机上也找到了该恶意软件。 The indictment makes clear that the United States believes that Mustang Panda is a state-sponsored group. 起诉书明确指出，美国认为野马熊猫是一个政府支持的组织。 Other Chinese groups have targeted Russia, too. Mr. Chang said his team was following another threat group, Slime19, that is continuously targeting the Russian government, energy and defense sectors. 其他中国组织也已把俄罗斯作为攻击目标。张哲诚说，他的团队正在追踪另一个名为Slime19的威胁性组织，该组织正在接连不断地把俄罗斯的政府、能源和国防部门作为侵入目标。 In agreements in 2009 and 2015, China and Russia promised not to carry out cyberattacks targeting each other. But even at the time, analysts suggested that the announcement was largely symbolic. 中俄曾在2009年和2015年签署协议，承诺不把对方作为网络攻击的目标。但分析人士当时就认为，该声明在很大程度上是象征性的。 Chinese hacking in Russia did not begin with the war in Ukraine. A 2021 cyberattack, for example, targeted Russian submarine designers. But experts say the war prompted a spike in computer intrusions. 中国针对俄罗斯的黑客攻击并非始于俄乌战争。例如，中国2021年的一次网络攻击曾把俄罗斯的潜艇设计师作为目标。但专家们说，俄乌战争引发了计算机入侵事件的激增。 “The activity — we saw it immediately in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” Mr. Cohen said. “Even though the public narrative was of close ties between Russia and China.” “我们在俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后的几个月里就马上看到了这种活动，”科恩说。“尽管公开的叙事只提俄中关系密切。” Jacob Judah对本文有报道贡献。 Megha Rajagopalan是一名驻伦敦的国际新闻调查记者。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID E. SANGER2025年6月19日只有美国的B-2隐形轰炸机能携带打击伊朗最深的地下核设施所需的炸弹，但决定使用它们并非没有风险。 Cristobal Herrera-Ulashkevich/EPA, via Shutterstock WASHINGTON — It sounds so surgical, so precise, exactly the kind of air attack that only the U.S. Air Force can execute. 华盛顿——听起来像是外科手术式的，极为精确，是那种只有美国空军才能执行的空袭。 A series of B-2 bombers lifts off from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri or the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Refueled in the air, they head for a remote mountain in north-central Iran, far from civilians, where they get Iran’s most heavily fortified nuclear site, Fordo, in their sights. 一系列B-2轰炸机从密苏里州的怀特曼空军基地或印度洋的迪戈加西亚岛起飞。在空中加油后前往伊朗中北部一个远离平民的偏远山区，打击伊朗戒备最森严的核设施——福尔多。 They drop their giant, 30,000-pound bunker-busters, one after another, blasting a giant hole down to the centrifuge halls that have been in the bull’s-eye of the U.S. military since President Barack Obama and the leaders of Britain and France revealed the existence of the plant in the fall of 2009, charging Iran with a great “deception.” 它们一个接一个地投下重约1.3万公斤的巨型钻地炸弹，把离心机房炸出一个大洞。自从奥巴马总统和英法领导人在2009年秋天揭露了该核基地的存在，指责伊朗设下了一个巨大“骗局”以来，这些离心机房一直是美国军方的靶心。 Few potential operations, with the possible exception of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, have been so examined, rehearsed and debated. Technically, the military and geological experts say, it should be doable. 除了中国入侵台湾之外，很少有什么潜在的行动经过如此严密的检验、演练和辩论。军事和地质专家说，从技术上讲，这应该是可行的。 And yet it is full of risks — known unknowns and unknown unknowns, as former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld used to say in the context of the Iraq War, another rabbit hole of U.S. military action in the Middle East. That is why it has given pause to every American president who has looked at it for the past 16 years. 但也充满了风险——正如前国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德在谈到伊拉克战争——美国在中东军事行动的又一个泥潭——时说的那样，存在已知的未知，还有未知的未知。正因如此，过去的16年里，每一位研究过这个问题的美国总统都会犹豫。 President Donald Trump on Wednesday emphasized that he had yet to make a decision to drop what in private he calls “the big one.” But gone was the bellicose tone that characterized his public utterances a day earlier. In its place was a note of caution. “I may do it,” he told reporters on the White House’s South Lawn. “I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.” 特朗普总统周三强调，他还没有决定是否要放弃他私下所说的“重大打击”。但一天前，他在公开讲话时，那种好斗的语气已经消失了。取而代之的是一种谨慎。“我可能会这么做，”他在白宫南草坪对记者说。“我可能不会这么做。我的意思是，没有人知道我要做什么。” Meanwhile, the Iranians, after five days of remarkable losses to the Israelis, seemed to be looking for a way out. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, issued a defiant response to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender,” but Trump said there were indications that the Iranians wanted to talk, and reports of an official Iranian plane landing in Oman, where many of the negotiations with Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, had taken place before Israel’s attack. 与此同时，在遭遇以色列方面五天打击并损失惨重后，伊朗方面似乎正在寻找出路。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊对特朗普“无条件投降”的呼吁做出了挑衅的回应，但特朗普表示，有迹象表明，伊朗人想要谈判，有报道称，一架伊朗官方飞机降落在阿曼，在以色列袭击之前，伊朗与美国总统特使史蒂夫·维特科夫的许多谈判都是在阿曼进行的。 If Trump is taking a pause, it may be because the list of things that could go wrong is long, and probably incomplete. There’s the obvious: It’s possible that a B-2 could get shot down, despite Israel’s success of taking out so many of Iran’s air defenses. It’s possible the calculations are wrong, and even the United States’ biggest conventional bomb can’t get down that deep. 如果特朗普暂停打击，那可能是因为可能出错的环节有很多，而且可能还有很多未知。显而易见的是：尽管以色列成功地摧毁了伊朗的许多防空系统，但B-2仍有可能被击落。有可能计算是错误的，即使是美国最大的常规炸弹也无法到达那么深的地方。 “I’ve been there, it’s half a mile underground,” Rafael Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said last week, as the Israeli operation began. “我去过那里，它在地下半英里，”国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·格罗西上周在以色列的行动开始时说。 But assuming that the operation itself is successful, the largest perils may lie in the aftermath, many experts say, just as they did in Afghanistan and Iraq. There are many lessons from that ugly era of misbegotten American foreign policy, but the most vital may be that it’s the unknown unknowns that can come back to bite. 但是，许多专家说，假设这次行动本身是成功的，那么最大的危险可能在于其后果，就像在阿富汗和伊拉克一样。从那个美国拙劣外交政策的丑陋时代中，我们可以吸取很多教训，但最重要的可能是，“未知的未知”可能会反咬一口。 “Subcontracting the Fordo job would put the United States in Iran’s sights,” Daniel C. Kurtzer, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, and Steven N. Simon, a veteran of the National Security Council, wrote in Foreign Affairs on Wednesday. “Iran would almost certainly retaliate by killing American civilians. That, in turn, would compel the United States to reciprocate.” “把福尔多的工作外包出去，会让美国进入伊朗的视线，”前美国驻以色列大使丹尼尔·库尔策和国家安全委员会资深官员史蒂文·西蒙周三在《外交事务》上写道。“伊朗几乎肯定会通过杀害美国平民进行报复。反过来，这将迫使美国做出回应。” “Soon enough,” they continued, “the only targets left for Washington to hit would be the Iranian regime’s leaders, and the United States would again go into the regime-change business — a business in which exceedingly few Americans want to be involved any longer.” “很快，”他们继续说，“唯一可以打击的目标将只剩伊朗政权的领导人，而美国将再次卷入政权更迭的勾当——一项很少有美国人愿意再参与的事。” The reaction could take other forms. Iran is skilled at terrorism, and reacted to the U.S.-Israeli cyber attack on its nuclear program 15 years ago by building a fearsome cyber corps, not as stealthy as China’s or as bold as Russia’s, but capable of considerable damage. And it has plenty of short-range missiles left to attack oil tankers, making transit in the Persian Gulf too risky. 这种反应可能以其他的形式呈现。伊朗擅长恐怖主义，15年前，美国和以色列对其核项目发动网络攻击时，伊朗建立了一支可怕的网络部队，虽然不像中国的那样隐秘，也不像俄罗斯的那样大胆，却能造成相当大的破坏。此外，伊朗还有大量的短程导弹可以用来攻击油轮，使得在波斯湾的航行过于危险。 The last thing the White House wants to do is air these risks in public. Democrats are calling for a congressional role, but they have no power to compel it. “Given the potential for escalation, we must be brought into this decision,” Sen. Adam Schiff of California, one of Trump’s political rivals, said on CNN on Wednesday. “Bombing Fordo would be an offensive activity.” 白宫最不愿意做的就是在公众面前宣扬这些风险。民主党人呼吁国会发挥作用，但他们没有权力强迫国会发挥作用。“考虑到事态升级的可能性，我们必须参与决策，”特朗普的政治对手之一、加州参议员亚当·希夫周三在CNN说。“轰炸福尔多将是一种进攻行为。” And history suggests that nuclear programs can be bombed, but not eliminated. 历史表明，核项目可以被轰炸，但不能被消除。 “Nuclear weapons can be stopped through force — the Syrian program is a good example,’’ said Gary Samore, who was the Obama administration’s coordinator for weapons of mass destruction when the existence of the Fordo plant was made public. (It was discovered toward the end of the Bush administration.) “核武器可以通过武力来制止，叙利亚的核项目就是一个很好的例子，”加里·萨莫尔说。当福尔多核工厂的存在被公之于众时，他是奥巴马政府的大规模杀伤性武器问题协调员。（该工厂是在布什政府即将结束时发现的。） And in Iraq, after the Israelis bombed the Osirak reactor in 1981, to keep Saddam Hussein from getting the fuel for a bomb, the Iraqis “reacted by building a huge, secret program” that went undetected until after the Gulf War in 1991, Samore said. That was such an embarrassment to American intelligence agencies that more than a decade later they wildly overestimated his ability to do it again, contributing to the second failure — and leading the United States into the Iraq War. 萨莫尔说，1981年在伊拉克，为阻止萨达姆·侯赛因获得制造核弹的燃料，以色列轰炸了奥西拉克反应堆，伊拉克人“建立了一个庞大的秘密项目作为回应”，直到1991年海湾战争结束后才被发现。这让美国情报机构非常尴尬，以至于十多年后，他们过分高估了萨达姆·侯赛因再次这样做的能力，导致了第二次失败——并将美国带入了伊拉克战争。 But Samore added: “I can’t think of a case where air power alone was sufficient to end a program.” 但萨莫尔还说：“我想不出在哪个案例中，仅靠空中力量就足以结束一个项目。” That is an important consideration for Trump. He must decide in the next few days whether Israel’s attacks on Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility, and its bombing of workshops where new centrifuges are made and laboratories where weapons research may have been taking place, are sufficient to set back the Iranian program. 这是特朗普的一个重要考虑因素。他必须在未来几天内决定，以色列对伊朗纳坦兹铀浓缩设施的袭击，以及对制造新离心机的厂房和可能正在进行武器研究的实验室的轰炸，是否足以挫败伊朗的核项目。 In short, he must decide whether it is worth the huge risk of direct American involvement for whatever gain would come from destroying Fordo with American pilots, American warplanes and American weapons. 简而言之，他必须决定，用美国飞行员、美国战机和美国武器摧毁福尔多所能获得的任何收益，是否值得冒着美国直接介入的巨大风险。 But he also doesn’t want to be accused of missing the chance to set the Iranians back by years. “If this war ends and this Fordo is left intact,” said Samore, now a professor at Brandeis University, “then it wouldn’t take long to get this going again.” 但他也不想被指责错过了让伊朗倒退数年的良机。“如果这场战争结束后，福尔多被完好无损地保存下来，”现任布兰代斯大学教授的萨莫尔说，“那么不需要很长时间，它就能重新启动。” David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
AMY CHANG CHIEN, MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年6月19日台湾宜兰的仁泽地热发电厂。 Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times A Chinese military magazine, Naval and Merchant Ships, recently zeroed in on one of Taiwan’s biggest vulnerabilities. The island democracy, which China claims is part of its territory and threatens to overtake, imports more than 96 percent of its energy. 中国的军事刊物《舰船知识》最近发文直指台湾的其中一个软肋。这个中国一直声称是其领土并威胁要实现统一的自治岛屿对能源进口的依赖度超过96%。 Most of it — oil, coal and liquefied natural gas — arrives by ship, and most of the oil is from the Middle East. China could debilitate Taiwan by blocking these ships and thereby “win without fighting,” the magazine said. 其中石油、煤炭和液化天然气主要通过海运抵达，且大部分石油来自中东。该杂志称，中国可通过封锁这些运输船只实现“不战而胜”。 China’s most recent military drills around Taiwan simulated doing exactly that. These actions not only could devastate Taiwan but could bring the global economy to a standstill, because the world relies on Taiwan’s factories for the majority of advanced computer chips. 中国近期的环台军演模拟了此类封锁行动。这些举措不仅会重创台湾，还可能令全球经济陷入停滞，因为全球先进计算机芯片的主要产能集中在台湾。 All countries need a mix of energy sources to ensure a stable fuel supply, said Thomas Isaacs, an expert on nuclear energy and waste. “But for Taiwan it is an order of magnitude more important,” he said. 核能和核废料专家托马斯·艾萨克斯表示，所有国家都需要多种能源组合，以确保燃料供应的安全。“但对台湾来说，这个问题的重要性要高出一个数量级，”他说。 Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, including its power-hungry chip factories, already eats up more than a third of the island’s energy supply. And as chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSMC, build more factories in Taiwan to keep up with skyrocketing demand for artificial intelligence chips, it has become even more important for the island to be able to make its own electricity. 包括耗电量巨大的芯片工厂在内，台湾的制造业消耗了全岛逾三分之一的能源供应。随着台积电等芯片制造商在台湾建造更多工厂以满足人工智能芯片飙升的需求，确保电力自主对台湾而言愈发重要。 台湾中油把原本用于石油开采的钻机进行改造，用来打地热井，深度超过3000米。 TSMC, which makes chips for Apple and Nvidia, operates 17 factories, called fabs, in Taiwan. It plans to build six more this year. Nvidia, Google and Amazon have also announced investments in Taiwan. The government said it expected that within the next five years, Taiwan would need 13 percent more electricity to support the booming demand from the A.I. industry. 为苹果和英伟达代工的台积电目前在台湾运营17座工厂，并计划今年再建六座。英伟达、谷歌和亚马逊也已宣布在台投资。当局预计，未来五年内为满足人工智能产业的爆发性需求，全岛电力需求将增长13%。 “Data centers filled with A.I. servers, increasingly precise semiconductors, state-of-the-art fabs — all of these advanced industrial breakthroughs require unprecedented amounts of energy,” said Raymond Greene, the director of the American Institute in Taiwan, the unofficial U.S. diplomatic mission in the country, at a gathering of business executives in March. 美国在台协会处长谷立言(Raymond Greene)在3月的一次商业高管聚会上表示：“装满人工智能服务器的数据中心、日益精密的半导体、最先进的晶圆厂——所有这些先进的工业突破都需要前所未有的能源消耗量。” As Taiwan’s demand for energy has increased, its efforts to add more clean energy sources have become more important — and harder to achieve. In 2016, the government vowed that by this year, 20 percent of Taiwan’s energy would come from renewable sources. But last year, officials said they would fail to meet that goal and lowered the target to about 15 percent. 随着台湾能源需求的增长，其增加清洁能源供应的努力变得更加重要——也更难实现。2016年，台湾当局誓言到今年将有20%的能源来自可再生能源。但到了去年，官员们承认无法实现这一目标，并将目标下调至约15%。 Disagreement between legislators and difficulties acquiring land have slowed the energy transition, said Tsaiying Lu, who works at the Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology, a government-funded think tank in Taipei. 政府背景的智库——科技、民主与社会研究中心的吕采颖表示，立法者之间的分歧和土地征用困难减缓了能源转型的速度。 仁泽发电厂是台湾四座运行中的地热能发电设施之一。一位经理说，很难找到既具备所需专业技术，又愿意在泥泞多雨的户外钻探现场工作的工程师。 The state electricity company, Taipower, has built giant wind turbines along the island’s western coast and installed solar panels that generate 14 megawatts of power. 台湾电力公司在台湾西海岸建造了巨型风力涡轮机，并安装了发电量为14兆瓦的太阳能板。 In the mountains on the eastern coast, one of Taiwan’s most seismically active areas, the state oil company, CPC, has repurposed oil rigs to dig geothermal wells up to two miles underground. 在东海岸山区——台湾地震最活跃的地区之一——国有石油公司台湾中油把原本用于石油开采的钻机进行改造，用来打地热井，深度超过3000米。 Geothermal energy, producing power from the heat inside the Earth, is a developing field. Researchers in Taiwan said the techniques they developed could eventually be deployed in other locations around the world. The industry generates less than 1 percent of Taiwan’s energy supply, but the government has said that within three decades, it will make up 15 percent of it. 利用地球内部的热量发电的地热能是一个新兴领域。台湾的研究人员表示，他们开发的技术最后可推广至全球其他地区。该产业目前仅占台湾能源供应的不到1%，但政府表示，未来三十年内将提升至15%。 One hurdle facing the nascent geothermal industry is staffing. Bill Chen, a geothermal energy manager at CPC, said the kinds of engineers the company needed to do the specialized technical work were rarely interested in spending their days outdoors in the mud and rain at a drilling site. Most quit before completing their first year on the job, he said. 这个新兴地热产业面临的一个障碍是人员配置。中油地热能项目的经理陈炳诚表示，公司所需的专业技术工程师大多不愿在泥泞多雨的户外钻探现场工作。他说，大多数人工作不满一年就会离职。 At the Renze plant in Yilan, one of Taiwan’s four operational geothermal facilities, generators hum and the air is thick with sulfur. Hsu Wen-ko, a power generation manager at Taipower, said his team had been “exhausting all methods” to make geothermal a reliable energy source for Taiwan. 在宜兰的仁泽地热发电厂——台湾四座运行中的地热设施之一——发电机嗡嗡作响，空气中弥漫着强烈的硫磺味。台湾电力公司再生能源处主任徐文科表示，他的团队一直在“竭尽所能”使地热成为台湾可靠的能源来源。 As steam fogged his glasses, Mr. Hsu said scientists could not be sure how much power a given site would yield until they started drilling. 眼镜上蒙着一层水雾的徐文科说，在开始钻探之前，科学家们也无法确定某个地点能产出多少电力。 “What’s beneath the ground is largely unknown,” he said. 他说：“地下的情况在很大程度上是未知的。” Taiwan’s energy capabilities took another hit last month when the island closed its last remaining nuclear power plant, the Maanshan No. 2 Nuclear Reactor. It had been one of the few places where Taiwan made its own electricity. 台湾的能源能力上个月再次受到打击，当时该岛关闭了最后一座仍在运行的核电站——马鞍山2号核反应堆。这里曾是台湾少数实现自主发电的设施之一。 台湾中油地热能项目经理陈炳诚。来自地下的热能同时也在为山中一座受欢迎的温泉浴场供能。 Nuclear energy once met more than 50 percent of Taiwan’s energy demand, but years of opposition after the disaster in Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, and public outcry over waste disposal sites, set in motion the slow shutdown of the industry. 核能曾满足台湾50%以上的能源需求，但2011年日本福岛核灾难后持续多年的反对声浪，以及公众对核废料处置场所的抗议，导致该产业逐步关停。 Now, momentum is building for a nuclear restart in Taiwan, and a slow turnabout is underway in public and political willingness to accept nuclear energy. 目前，台湾重启核电的势头正在增强，公众和政治层面接受核能的意愿也正在缓慢转变。 Yang Chia-fa is a founder of a clean energy activist group, Climate Vanguards, and works for Taipower. Last summer, he traveled with a dozen activists to southern Taiwan to protest the planned shutdown of Maanshan. “Nuclear power is the real clean energy,” Mr. Yang said. 杨家法是清洁能源倡导组织气候先锋者联盟的创始人，他同时也在台湾电力公司任职。去年夏天，他与十多名活动人士前往台湾南部抗议马鞍山核电厂的关停计划。“核电才是真正的清洁能源，”杨家法说。 Days before Maanshan was shut down, lawmakers agreed to amend a law that could revive the reactor. The amendment, which needs to be signed by the president to take effect, would extend the allowable life span of nuclear facilities in Taiwan to 60 from 40 years. While several of Taiwan’s shuttered nuclear power plants have been dormant too long to be revived, the legislation could pave the way for a restart at Maanshan. 在马鞍山核电厂关停前数日，立法机构通过了一项可能令该反应堆重启的法案。该法案需经总统签署方能生效，届时台湾核设施运行年限将从40年延长至60年。虽然台湾已关停的核电厂闲置过久难以重启，但这项立法为马鞍山核电厂的重启铺平了道路。 台湾电力公司再生能源处主任徐文科。台湾的研究人员表示，他们通过台湾地热井项目开发出的技术最终可以推广至全球其他地区。 Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, assured members of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in May that even without nuclear power, Taiwan was not at risk of an electricity shortage. 台湾总统赖清德在5月向执政的民进党成员保证，即使没有核电，台湾也不会面临缺电风险。 But Taiwan has struggled with blackouts during heat waves and droughts in recent years, leaving millions without power. And there are concerns that the government’s existing investments in wind, solar and geothermal energy will not be able to keep up with the growing demand of Taiwan’s factories. 但近年来，台湾在热浪和干旱期间屡遭停电困扰，导致数百万人无电可用。外界担忧政府在风能、太阳能和地热能方面的现有投资将无法满足台湾工厂日益增长的需求。 “If we continue to develop energy at the current speed, it will probably be far from enough to meet the demand for electricity,” said Ko Ju-Chun, a legislator in the opposition Nationalist Party who supports the revival of nuclear power. “We don’t have the conditions to be optimistic.” “如果我们继续以目前的速度发展能源，很可能远远无法满足电力需求，”支持重启核电的在野党国民党立法委员葛如钧表示，“我们没有乐观的条件。” 台湾政府于上世纪70年代在兰屿岛修建了一处设施，用于存放本岛核电站产生的数千桶低水平放射性废料。多年来，台湾16个得到政府正式确认的原住民族群之一达悟族一直在吁求政府将核废料场迁出，但至今未能如愿。 Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
JACK EWING2025年6月19日中国奇瑞汽车公司生产的混合动力汽车在罗马的一家展厅。中国汽车制造商将销售重点放在意大利等国，因为在这些国家，德国和法国汽车公司的地位不如在北欧国家稳固。 Stephanie Gengotti for The New York Times When the European Union last year imposed steep tariffs on electric cars made in China, it looked like a serious setback for BYD and other Chinese automakers. 当欧盟去年对中国制造的电动汽车征收高额关税时，比亚迪和其他中国汽车制造商似乎将面临一次严重挫折。 But the Chinese companies were not so easily discouraged. They pivoted to hybrids or gasoline-powered cars that were exempt from tariffs. They began importing less-expensive models. And they concentrated on countries like Italy and Spain, where German and French carmakers are less entrenched than in Northern Europe. 但中国公司并没有那么容易气馁。他们转向了免除关税的混合动力汽车或汽油动力汽车。他们开始进口价格较低的车型。他们还把重点放在意大利和西班牙等国家，在这些国家，德国和法国汽车制造商的地位不像在北欧那么稳固。 Despite the tariffs, which are as high as 35 percent for certain companies, Chinese brands doubled their share of the European car market in April from a year earlier, according to registration data compiled by JATO Dynamics, a research firm. It was a potent demonstration of the flexibility and manufacturing prowess of BYD, Geely, Chery, SAIC and other Chinese manufacturers. 尽管某些公司被征收了高达35%的关税，但研究公司JATO Dynamics汇编的注册数据显示，今年4月，中国品牌在欧洲汽车市场的份额比一年前翻了一番。这有力地展示了比亚迪、吉利、奇瑞、上汽和其他中国制造商的灵活性和制造能力。 “These big, huge companies in China, they have the possibility of doing whatever they want,” said Pier Giacomo Cappella, managing director of a chain of dealerships in Italy that sells DR brand cars manufactured by Chery. “中国的这些庞大的巨头公司有能力做任何他们想做的事，”销售奇瑞生产的DR品牌汽车的意大利连锁经销商总经理皮尔·贾科莫·卡佩拉表示。 Some Chinese automakers design and produce new models in just six months, said Mr. Cappella, who also sells German brands including Porsche and Audi. “The Germans, they take at least two years.” 卡佩拉还销售保时捷和奥迪等德国品牌。他说，一些中国汽车制造商只需要六个月就能设计和生产新车型。“德国人至少需要两年时间。” The DR models at one of his showrooms in Rome include a diesel off-road vehicle called the ICH-X K2. It strongly resembles a four-door Jeep Wrangler but, at 51,500 euros, or about $60,000, costs $10,000 less. 他在罗马的一个陈列室里展出的DR车型包括一款名为ICH-X K2的柴油越野车。这款车与四门吉普牧马人非常相似，但售价5.15万欧元（约合42万元人民币），比后者便宜1万美元。 Chinese car brands accounted for only 4.9 percent of the E.U. new-car market in April, or 53,000 vehicles, according to JATO. But that was up from 2.4 percent a year earlier. 根据JATO的数据，4月中国汽车品牌仅占欧盟新车市场的4.9%，即53000辆。但一年前这个占比是2.4%。 The Chinese carmakers have even managed to keep selling more electric vehicles in Europe. After an initial dip, sales of electric vehicles by BYD and other Chinese automakers rebounded in April, according to JATO, rising 59 percent that month compared with a 26 percent increase in electric vehicle sales by other manufacturers. 中国汽车制造商甚至成功地在欧洲售出了更多的电动汽车。根据JATO的数据，在最初的低迷之后，比亚迪和其他中国汽车制造商的电动汽车销量在4月份反弹，当月增长了59%，而其他制造商的电动汽车销量增长了26%。 In Europe, sales of electric vehicles are growing faster than for any other type of vehicle. About one in five electric vehicles sold in Europe during the first quarter was made in China, according to separate figures from Schmidt Automotive Research. 在欧洲，电动汽车的销售增长速度比任何其他类型的汽车都要快。施密特汽车研究公司的另一份数据显示，第一季度在欧洲销售的电动汽车中，约有五分之一是中国制造的。 The Chinese gains came largely at the expense of Tesla, which recorded a steep drop in sales partly because European buyers were offended by the behavior of Elon Musk, the company’s chief executive. Mr. Musk has supported far-right political parties in Germany, France and Britain. 中国车企的增长在很大程度上是挤占了特斯拉的市场份额。特斯拉销量大幅下降，部分原因是欧洲买家对该公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克的行为感到不快。马斯克在德国、法国和英国支持极右翼政党。 BYD electric vehicles outsold Tesla cars in April in Europe, although just barely. Europeans registered 7,231 BYD electric cars compared with 7,165 from Tesla, according to JATO. The introduction of an updated Tesla Model Y, the company’s best-selling car, has not stemmed the decline, at least so far. 今年4月，比亚迪电动汽车在欧洲的销量超过了特斯拉，尽管差距很小。根据JATO的数据，欧洲注册了7331辆比亚迪电动汽车，而特斯拉注册了7165辆。特斯拉最畅销的车型Model Y的升级版推出并没有阻止这种下滑，至少到目前为止是这样。 在经历了最初的下滑之后，比亚迪（上图）和其他中国汽车制造商的电动汽车销量在4月出现反弹。 Because the duties are based on how much Chinese government support the carmakers receive, one unintended effect has been to encourage the Chinese to sell gasoline cars, undermining E.U. efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 由于关税是根据中国政府对汽车制造商的支持程度而定，一个意想不到的影响是这鼓励了中国销售汽油车，破坏了欧盟减少温室气体排放的努力。 Only one-third of the cars that the Chinese carmakers sold in Europe during the first quarter were electric, according to Schmidt Automotive. The rest were hybrids or conventional gasoline-powered cars that are exempt from tariffs. 施密特汽车的数据显示，今年第一季度，中国汽车制造商在欧洲销售的汽车中，只有三分之一是电动汽车。其余的是免征关税的混合动力汽车或传统汽油动力汽车。 “That’s one of the ironies” of the tariffs, said Matthias Schmidt, the owner of Schmidt Automotive. 施密特汽车公司的所有者马蒂亚斯·施密特说，这是关税的“讽刺之处之一”。 Cars made by Tesla in Shanghai are subject to an 8 percent tariff; for SAIC, which sells cars under the MG brand, it’s 35 percent; and BYD electric vehicles are subject to a 17 percent duty. Those tariffs are on top of a 10 percent tariff that applies to all cars imported to E.U. countries. 特斯拉在上海生产的汽车要缴纳8%的关税；销售MG品牌汽车的上汽集团被征收35%的关税；比亚迪的电动汽车则要缴纳17%的关税。这些关税是在对所有进口到欧盟国家的汽车征收10%关税的基础上征收的。 The Chinese carmakers are best known for electric cars, but are willing to supply whatever the market demands, dealers say. That has helped Chinese brands attract buyers in countries like Italy, where many have avoided electric cars because there are too few places to charge the vehicles. 经销商们表示，中国汽车制造商最出名的是电动汽车，但它们愿意满足市场的任何需求。这帮助中国品牌吸引了意大利等国的买家，在这些国家，许多人都避免使用电动汽车，因为充电的地方太少。 Gabriele Gabrieli, commercial director of Leonori, a dealership in Rome that sells primarily brands from Stellantis like Peugeot and Citroën, added a BYD showroom last year. About two-thirds of the BYD cars that he sells are hybrids, Mr. Gabrieli said. 罗马经销商Leonori的商务总监加布里埃尔·加布里埃利去年增加了一个比亚迪展厅。Leonori主要销售标致和雪铁龙等斯泰兰提斯的品牌。加布里埃利说，他销售的比亚迪汽车中约有三分之二是混合动力车。 “It’s very difficult to own an electric vehicle in Rome,” he said. “在罗马拥有一辆电动汽车是很难的事，”他说。 Europe has traditionally been a tough market for foreign carmakers. In Germany and France, the two largest car markets, buyers show a strong preference for brands from their respective countries like Volkswagen, Renault and Peugeot. 对外国汽车制造商来说，欧洲向来是一个困难的市场。在德国和法国这两个最大的汽车市场，买家对大众、雷诺和标致等本国品牌表现出强烈的偏好。 Volkswagen, which also makes Audi, Skoda and SEAT cars, accounts for 28 percent of the European Union’s new vehicle sales. Stellantis, which owns Peugeot, Citroën and Opel, has 16 percent. 大众汽车也生产奥迪、斯柯达和西雅特等车型，占欧盟新车销量的28%。拥有标致、雪铁龙和欧宝的斯泰兰提斯销量占16%。 Italy, Spain and Britain accounted for two-thirds of the cars the Chinese sold in Europe during the first quarter, according to Schmidt Automotive. Britain is not part of the European Union and does not impose additional tariffs on Chinese carmakers. Fiat no longer commands the loyalty it once had with Italian buyers. Spain and Britain do not have major local brands that residents strongly identify with. 据施密特汽车公司，意大利、西班牙和英国占中国汽车第一季度在欧洲销售的汽车总量的三分之二。英国不是欧盟成员国，不会对中国汽车制造商征收额外关税。菲亚特不再像以前那样拥有意大利买家的忠诚。西班牙和英国没有居民强烈认同的主要本土品牌。 意大利一家销售奇瑞产DR品牌汽车的连锁经销店总经理说："中国的这些庞大的巨头公司有有能力做任何他们想做的事。” The Chinese companies are gaining share faster than other foreign brands like Hyundai and Toyota, which have been selling cars in Europe for decades. In April, they each accounted for about 8 percent of new car registrations in the European Union, according to data compiled by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. 中国公司的市场份额增长比现代和丰田等其他外国品牌更快，这些品牌已经在欧洲销售了几十年。根据欧洲汽车制造商协会的数据，今年4月，这两家公司的新车注册量分别占欧盟新车注册量的8%左右。 Ford Motor’s share of the European car market has dwindled to 3 percent, and General Motors has only a minor presence, mostly selling a small number of electric Cadillacs in a few European markets. 福特汽车在欧洲汽车市场的份额已经下降到3%，通用汽车的份额也很小，主要在少数几个欧洲市场销售少量的凯迪拉克电动汽车。 BYD is expected to ramp up its European sales after the company begins producing cars in Hungary and Turkey next year. Those vehicles will not be subject to any E.U. tariffs. 比亚迪明年开始在匈牙利和土耳其生产汽车，预计将随之提高其在欧洲的销量。欧盟不会对这些汽车征收任何关税。 “You can’t even imagine how fast they are going to grow when they are producing in Hungary and Turkey,” said Felipe Munoz, global automotive analyst at JATO. “当他们在匈牙利和土耳其生产汽车后，你甚至无法想象他们的增长速度有多快，”JATO全球汽车分析师费利佩·穆尼奥斯表示。 Fabrizio Trentino was among the customers checking out BYD cars at Mr. Gabrieli’s showroom recently. Mr. Trentino was applying for a Rome taxi license and looking for a vehicle. He was intrigued by a BYD electric car on display. 法布里齐奥·特伦蒂诺是最近在加布里埃利的展厅里看了比亚迪汽车的顾客之一。他当时正在申请罗马出租车牌照，并物色一辆车。他对一辆比亚迪电动汽车很感兴趣。 “It looks good,” he said, adding that he thought the car would save him money in the long run because electric vehicles don’t need oil changes and electricity usually costs less than gasoline. “看起来不错，”他说，他认为从长远来看，这辆车会为他省钱，因为电动汽车不需要换油，而且电力通常比汽油便宜。 But later Mr. Trentino said by email that the upfront cost of the electric vehicle was too much for him. 但特伦蒂诺后来在电子邮件中说，电动汽车的前期成本对他来说太高了。 “I’ll probably get a BYD as the next one, when I’ll be richer and they will be hopefully cheaper,” he said. 他说：“下次我可能会买一辆比亚迪，到时候我更有钱了，希望价格也会更便宜。” Jack Ewing撰写关于汽车产业的报道，重点关注电动车领域。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
PATRICK KINGSLEY2025年6月19日以色列周二对德黑兰发动空袭后的硝烟。以色列正在对伊朗实施它长期威胁却从未敢落实的大胆全面攻击。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times For nearly two decades, Israel avoided all-out war with its biggest enemies. 近20年里，以色列始终避免与最大的敌人发生全面战争。 It fought contained conflicts with Hamas, but ultimately allowed the group to retain power in Gaza. It maintained an uneasy calm with the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, even as its fighters entrenched themselves in southern Lebanon. And despite planning a major assault on Iran, it limited its attacks to smaller, clandestine operations. 虽然以色列与哈马斯发生过有节制的冲突，但最终仍容其掌控加沙地带。尽管黎巴嫩民兵组织真主党的武装人员在黎巴嫩南部扎下了根，以色列仍与其维持着一种不稳定的平静。尽管以色列有对伊朗发动大规模打击的计划，但以前的打击仅限于小规模的秘密行动。 Israel’s massive, ongoing assault on Iran highlights an extraordinary shift in Israeli military doctrine since Hamas, Iran’s Palestinian ally, attacked the country in October 2023. It is a change that has redrawn the power dynamics in the Middle East, unraveled Iran’s regional alliance and enshrined Israel as the dominant military force in the region. 此次以色列对伊朗发动大规模持续打击，标志着自伊朗在巴勒斯坦的盟友哈马斯2023年10月袭击以色列以来，以色列军事战略发生重大转变。这一转变重塑了中东地区的权力格局，瓦解了伊朗的区域联盟，并让以色列成为在该地区占支配地位的军事力量。 Having given Hamas years to prepare for the Oct. 7 attack, Israel reversed course afterward to unleash one of the most destructive campaigns in recent warfare. It then assassinated most of Hezbollah’s leadership and decimated large parts of southern Lebanon. Now, in Iran, it is carrying out the kind of broad and brazen attack that it long threatened but never dared to enact. 在给了哈马斯多年时间为10月7日的袭击做准备后，以色列改变了行动方式，发动了近年来最具毁灭性的军事行动。以色列在那之后还暗杀了真主党的大部分领导层，摧毁了黎巴嫩南部的大片地区。如今在伊朗境内，以色列正在实施它长期威胁却从未敢落实的大胆全面攻击。 “We are changing the face of the Middle East,” said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel during a press briefing on Monday. “And this could lead to far-reaching changes within Iran itself,” he added. “我们正在改变中东的面貌，”以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在周一的新闻发布会上说。“这会导致伊朗内部发生影响深远的变化，”他还说。 For now, that second claim remains unproven. The Israeli military campaign has weakened Iran, but it has not yet destroyed the country’s nuclear program or collapsed its government, and it may still fall short of both. The war could also devolve into an intractable quagmire with no exit strategy or offramp. 就目前而言，他的第二个宣言还没有得到验证。虽然以色列的军事行动已削弱了伊朗，但还没有摧毁该国的核项目，也未颠覆其政权，而且与实现这两个目标仍有很大距离。这场战争还可能陷入一个难以脱身的泥潭。 伊朗人在德黑兰的加油站排队，摄于周一。 Mr. Netanyahu’s broader point is harder to contradict. Hamas is no longer a threat to Israel. Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanon — let alone the danger it poses to Israelis — is much diminished. The government in Syria, a pillar of Iran’s regional alliance, was overthrown last December, in part because Hezbollah could no longer come to its aid. 内塔尼亚胡的更广泛论点难以辩驳。哈马斯不再对以色列构成威胁。真主党对黎巴嫩的影响已大大减弱，更不用说给以色列人带来的危险。叙利亚政府已在去年12月被推翻，它曾是伊朗在该地区联盟的中流砥柱，这在一定程度上是因为真主党无法再为其提供援助。 These tectonic shifts also speak to a vast change within the Israeli psyche and strategic outlook since Hamas’s attack in October 2023. 这些结构性的变化也反映了自2023年10月哈马斯袭击以来以色列人在心理和战略观念上的巨大变化。 For Israel’s critics, the attack was the inevitable consequence of the country’s blockade of Gaza, occupation of the West Bank, and failure to resolve the Palestinian conflict through diplomatic concessions. Many Israelis have drawn the opposite conclusion: They believe that the October attack — the deadliest in Israeli history — stemmed from Israel’s failure to pre-emptively and decisively defeat its enemies. 在以色列的批评者眼里，那次袭击是以色列封锁加沙、占领西岸，以及未能通过在外交上做出让步解决巴勒斯坦冲突的必然结果。但许多以色列人却得出了相反的结论：他们认为，发生10月份那次以色利历史上最惨烈袭击的原因是，以色列未能先发制人、果断地打垮敌人。 “In the 20 years before Oct. 7, we allowed threats to develop beyond our borders, trusting that our intelligence would give us prior warnings of any attack,” said Maj. Gen. Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence. “在10月7日以前的20年里，我们任由境外的威胁增长，相信我们的情报部门会在袭击发生前向我们预警，”曾任以色列军事情报部门负责人的阿莫斯·亚德林少将说。 “The trauma of Oct. 7 completely changed that mind-set and made us willing to take risks that we didn’t take in the past,” General Yadlin said. “We will no longer wait to be attacked, and we will not wait to be surprised.” “10月7日的创伤彻底扭转了我们的思维模式，让我们愿意承担过去未曾冒过的风险，”亚德林说。“我们不会再等着被袭，也不会再等着被打个措手不及。” The approach echoes Israel’s strategic outlook in the early decades of its existence, when it often acted more swiftly and decisively to remove threats on its borders, General Yadlin said. The clearest example was in June 1967, when Israel pre-emptively attacked Egypt after the Egyptian military moved troops toward the Israeli border. 亚德林说，这种做法与以色列建国最初几十年的战略观如出一辙，即以更迅速果断的行动消除边界上的威胁。最明显的例子是1967年6月，当时埃及军队向以色列边境调动部队，以色列对埃及实施了先发制人的打击。 1967年6月，以色列战斗机飞越埃及西奈半岛。以色列目前在中东地区采取的策略与它在建国最初几十年的战略如出一辙：以更迅速果断的行动消除边界上的威胁。 “As Egypt massed troops on our southern border, we did not wait to be surprised,” General Yadlin said. “Now, we are reviving that doctrine.” “当埃及在我们南部边境集结军队的时候，我们没有坐等突袭，”亚德林说。“现在，我们正在复兴这一信条。” Israel’s new approach is the culmination of months of re-evaluation, during which the military’s confidence — crushed by the failures of Oct. 7 — was gradually restored. 以色列的新策略是数月来重新评估的最终结果，在此期间，军方因10月7日失败而遭受重创的信心逐渐得到恢复。 While Israel’s approach to Hamas was immediately wrathful, the country was initially wary of taking on Hezbollah and Iran. Mr. Netanyahu called off a pre-emptive attack on Hezbollah in the first week of the war in 2023, amid fears that Israel would struggle to maintain a multi-front war against the Iran-led alliance. 虽然以色列对哈马斯立即采取了雷霆手段，但它最初对于同时跟真主党和伊朗交手持谨慎态度。内塔尼亚胡在2023年战争的第一周取消了对真主党的先发制人攻击，因为担忧以色列难以维持针对伊朗领导的联盟的多线作战。 For nearly a year, Israel fought only a low-level border conflict with Hezbollah. Despite increasing clashes with Tehran in 2024, Israel limited its strikes on Iran to avoid an all-out conflict. 此后的近一年里，以色列与真主党只发生了低级别的边境冲突。尽管与德黑兰的冲突在2024年有所加剧，但以色列对伊朗坚持有限打击，以避免全面冲突。 Israel’s approach began to change last September, when a sequence of unexpected moves allowed Israel to decimate much of Hezbollah’s senior leadership. 去年9月，以色列的策略开始转变，当时一系列意想不到的行动使以色列得以重创真主党高层。 That increased Israel’s confidence and prompted its leaders to order a more decisive assault on the group. Troops invaded southern Lebanon and the air force killed Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah. 这一胜利增强了以色列的信心，促使它的领导人下令对该组织进行更果断的攻击。军队入侵黎巴嫩南部，空军击毙了真主党领导人哈桑·纳斯鲁拉。 Israel then severely weakened Iran’s air defense systems and successfully repelled massive barrages of Iranian missiles, giving Israel greater confidence in its offensive and defensive abilities. More than a year after Oct. 7, Israeli leaders finally concluded that they had a rare window of opportunity to mount a decisive blow against Iran’s nuclear program. 随后，以色列严重削弱了伊朗的防空系统，并成功拦截伊朗的大量导弹，使以色列对自己的进攻和防御能力更有信心。10月7日的袭击过去一年多后，以色列领导人终于得出结论，他们迎来一个难得的机会窗口，可以对伊朗的核计划进行决定性的打击。 周日，德黑兰西部一处储油设施遭到以色列空袭。 Though Israel’s new approach has undercut Iran’s regional influence, it has done little to resolve Israel’s oldest and most intractable problem: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 尽管以色列的新策略削弱了伊朗的地区影响力，但它对解决以色列最久远、最棘手的问题——巴以冲突方面却没有太大帮助。 In Gaza, Israel’s retaliation has led to widespread destruction and bloodshed, reinstating a fearsome sense of Israeli might and reducing Hamas’s threat for a generation. 在加沙，以色列的报复行动导致了大范围的破坏和流血，使人们重新认识到以色列的可怕威力，也使得哈马斯在未来一代人时间内难以构成威胁。 But the conflict has provided no clear long-term trajectory for either Gaza or the wider Palestinian question. Mr. Netanyahu has consistently ignored opportunities to end the war, balking at the idea of either leaving Hamas’s remnants in charge or allowing other Palestinian groups to take over. 但这场冲突并未为加沙或更广泛的巴勒斯坦问题指明清晰的长期方向。内塔尼亚胡屡次错失结束战争的机会，既不愿让哈马斯的残余势力继续掌权，也不愿让其他巴勒斯坦组织接手。 “Instead, we are left with only bad options,” said Tzipi Livni, a former Israeli foreign minister. “Either occupation or chaos, rather than a diplomatic process involving moderate regional and Palestinian stakeholders that could change the reality on the ground for both Palestinians and Israelis.” “相反，我们只剩下糟糕的选择，”以色列前外交部长齐皮·利夫尼说。“要么是占领，要么是混乱，而不是一个能改变巴以现实的外交进程——该进程本应包括温和的地区国家以及巴勒斯坦各方。” A similarly aimless dynamic could yet emerge in Iran, analysts said, if the Israeli leadership fails to clearly define its goals there and set an exit strategy. 分析人士指出，如果以色列领导层不能明确其在伊朗的目标并制定退出战略，类似的盲目态势也可能在伊朗问题上重演。 For now, Israeli officials hope the United States will join the attack and help Israel destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. If the United States stays away, and if Iran refuses to stop the enrichment by choice, it is unclear whether Israel’s forceful new doctrine will achieve the kind of game-changing outcomes that many Israelis desire. 目前，以色列官员希望美国加入打击行动，帮助以色列摧毁伊朗的核浓缩设施。如果美国选择置身事外，而伊朗又拒绝主动停止铀浓缩活动，那么以色列的强硬新策略能否实现许多以色列人所希望的那种改变游戏规则的结果，这一点尚不明朗。 “One wonders whether effective military performance is matched by a sober political vision,” said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and a fellow at Israel Policy Forum, a research group in New York. “Or, like in Gaza, we are left without an endgame. Time will tell.” “人们不禁要问，出色的军事表现是否有清醒的政治愿景来匹配，”前以色列高级官员、纽约研究机构以色列政策论坛研究员尼姆罗德·诺维克说。“或者，就像在加沙一样，我们没有一个终局。时间会给出答案。” Johnatan Reiss和Gabby Sobelman对本文有报道贡献。 Patrick Kingsley是时报耶路撒冷分社社长，领导时报对以色列、加沙和西岸的报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
赫海威2019年8月1日胡锡进在《环球时报》位于北京的编辑部。“中国向世界阐释自己的能力不足，”这份民族主义小报的主编说。 Giulia Marchi for The New York Times Sign up for NYT Chinese-language Morning Briefing. [《纽约时报》推出每日中文简报，为你介绍时报当日的重点英文报道，并推荐部分已被译成中文的精选内容。新读者请点击此处订阅，或发送邮件至cn.letters@nytimes.com加入订阅。] BEIJING — Inside a bustling, 700-person newsroom in downtown Beijing, Hu Xijin leads a 24-hour propaganda machine that some media scholars call China’s Fox News. 北京——在北京市中心一个700人的忙碌新闻编辑室里，胡锡进领导着一个24小时运行的宣传机器，一些媒体学者称它为中国的福克斯新闻(Fox News)。 Mr. Hu was one of the first to defend China’s vast detention of Muslims against international criticism. His newspaper has described Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as crazy. Thirty years ago, he marched with students on Tiananmen Square demanding democracy in China, but now he is a leading critic of protesters in Hong Kong who have been resisting Chinese rule. 针对国际社会的批评，胡锡进是最早为中国大规模拘禁穆斯林的做法辩护的人之一。他的报纸称国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)“疯狂”。30年前，他和学生们在天安门广场游行，要求中国实行民主，但现在，他是对在香港抵制中国统治的抗议者的主要批评者。 China is rife with nationalist voices. But Mr. Hu stands out because of his position as the top editor of the Global Times, a popular tabloid controlled by the ruling Communist Party, and his flair for verbal warfare against the United States and the Trump administration. To Mr. Hu, virtually every criticism of China is an opportunity to launch a counterattack about what he derides as the hypocrisy of Beijing’s critics. 中国充斥着民族主义的声音。但作为《环球时报》的主编，加之爱怒怼美国和特朗普政府，胡锡进脱颖而出。《环球时报》由执政的共产党控制，是一份深受读者欢迎的小报。在他看来，几乎每一次对中国的批评都是反击的机会，借以嘲笑北京批评者的虚伪。 As the trade war between China and the United States has escalated, Mr. Hu has played a critical role in the party’s mission to tell the world that China will not back down. He was once dismissed by many as a commentator whose self-satisfied broadsides did not always reflect China’s official views. But Mr. Hu is now increasingly seen as a combative public voice of the administration of President Xi Jinping in an era of more open rivalry with the United States. 随着中美贸易战不断升级，党在向世界宣告中国不会退缩，胡锡进在这项任务中起到关键作用。曾经在许多人看来，他不过是一介评论员，认为他自鸣得意的抨击并不总是反映中国官方的观点。但在与美国公然竞争的时代，胡锡进现在越来越被视为一个替习近平政府发出好斗声音的人物。 “There is a sense of crisis,” Mr. Hu, 59, said during a recent interview at the paper’s headquarters in Beijing, where he often works late so he can respond to President Trump’s tweets. “America can’t suppress China’s rise.” “我们真的认为有这样的危机感，”59岁的胡锡进最近在该报位于北京的总部接受采访时表示。为了可以回应特朗普总统的推文，他经常在这里工作到很晚。“美国不能够压制中国崛起。” Mr. Hu’s critics in China call him a “Frisbee fetcher,” a party loyalist who retrieves whatever the government throws at him. Western diplomats and commentators regularly accuse him of bending the truth to inflame nationalist instincts. 胡锡进在中国的批评者称他为“飞盘侠”，意思是他听党的话，无论官方扔给他什么，他都会叼回来。西方外交官和评论人士也经常指责他歪曲事实，煽动人们的民族主义本能。 Mr. Hu, who is one of China’s longest-serving newspaper editors — he took the job in 2005 — says he wants to promote stability at home and improve the world’s understanding of China. 2005年上任的胡锡进是中国任职时间最长的报纸主编之一。他说他希望促进国内的稳定，增进世界对中国的了解。 “China’s ability to explain itself to the world is inadequate,” he said. “中国向世界阐释自己的能力不足，”他说。 With its mix of lively editorials and news articles, Global Times is now one of China’s most widely read publications, with more than two million readers in print and 30 million unique visitors per month online. 《环球时报》既有言辞生动的社论，也有新闻报道，是中国读者最多的出版物之一，拥有超过200万的纸质读者和每月3000万的在线独立访问者。 Giulia Marchi for The New York Times “Like it or not, they shape public opinion,” said Yik Chan Chin, a lecturer in media and communication studies at the Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University in China. “They are more outspoken and radical than the others.” “不管你喜不喜欢，他们塑造了公众舆论，”中国西交利物浦大学媒体与传播研究讲师钱忆亲说。“他们比其他人更直白、更激进。” Mr. Hu now has more than 19 million followers on Chinese social media sites, and investors, diplomats and political pundits in China and the United States scour his posts for hints of what China’s famously secretive leaders might be thinking. Opinions vary over whether the paper’s belligerent editorials truly represent the leadership’s positions. 胡锡进现在在中国的社交媒体网站上有1900多万粉丝，中美两国的投资者、外交官和政治评论家都在他的帖文中寻找蛛丝马迹，看看中国以神秘著称的领导人可能在想些什么。对于该报极具挑衅性的社论是否真能代表领导层的立场，众说纷纭。 Mr. Hu, a former war correspondent with a fondness for Tolstoy and polo shirts, says he is surprised by the attention. But he acknowledges that he has special access and lives “in the same system” as Chinese officials. 胡锡进曾是战地记者，喜欢托尔斯泰和马球衫，对于受到这样的关注，他感到意外。但他承认，自己拥有特殊的渠道，与中国官员生活在“同一个体制里”。 Growing up in Beijing, Mr. Hu was not always a model of party loyalty. 在北京长大的胡锡进并非从一开始就是忠于党的模范。 In the spring of 1989, as pro-democracy protests erupted across China, Mr. Hu, then a graduate student in Beijing specializing in Russian literature who had served in the People’s Liberation Army, joined the crowd of students and workers gathered at Tiananmen Square. He chanted slogans, joined in renditions of protest anthems like “L’Internationale” and grew excited as he heard American radio broadcasts declare that democracy might come to China. 1989年春天，中国各地爆发了支持民主的抗议活动，曾在中国人民解放军服役、当时在北京攻读俄罗斯文学研究生的胡锡进加入了聚集在天安门广场的学生和工人人群。他高呼口号，唱着《国际歌》等抗议歌曲，听到美国电台宣Even in China’s tightly controlled media environment, where newspaper editors are fired for pushing the boundaries, Mr. Hu has thrived. He remains a loyal party cadre, even as he occasionally levels criticism at the government over excessive social control. 在中国受到严格管控的媒体环境下，报纸总编会因为越界而遭到解雇，然而即便如此，胡锡进依然干得风生水起。他仍然是忠诚的党干部，尽管他偶尔会对政府过度的社会管控提出批评。 His philosophy is summed up in a slogan that hangs inside the paper’s offices: “Don’t just strive to pioneer, but also to remain extremely safe.” 他的哲学可以用挂在报社办公室楼的一句口号来概括：“既要努力开拓，又要十分稳妥。” Zhan Jiang, a retired professor of journalism in Beijing, said he worried that Mr. Hu was “ingeniously” stoking nationalism in Chinese society. Mr. Hu has managed to stay in his position because he is nimble at anticipating changes in political winds, Mr. Zhan said. 北京退休的新闻学教授展江担心，胡锡进在“巧妙地”煽动中国社会的民族主义。展江说，胡锡进能保住这样的位置，是因为他可以敏锐地预测政治风向的变化。 “Sometimes, he has small criticisms of the government,” Mr. Zhan said. “But at the crucial moments, he will be there to help the officials.” “但他关键的时候他一定是帮助官方的，有时候有些小批评，”展江说。 Mr. Hu’s loyalty to the party has been on display in recent weeks as Beijing has sought to undermine protests against mainland Chinese rule in Hong Kong. Mr. Hu has published dozens of editorials and social media posts about the unrest, denouncing some of the protesters as “fanatical” and a threat to Hong Kong’s future. 最近几周，北京试图破坏香港对中国大陆统治的抗议，胡锡进在这个时候展现出了对党的忠诚，他发表了数十篇有关香港骚乱的社论和社交媒体帖子，谴责一些抗议者“狂热”，是对香港未来的威胁。 In the interview, Mr. Hu said that he could relate to the protesters because of his time at Tiananmen but said they were acting impulsively. He accused the West of helping to fuel instability in Hong Kong, though he acknowledged he did not have any evidence of that. 在采访中，胡锡进说，因为自己在天安门的经历，他可以理解抗议者，但表示他们太冲动了。他指责西方助长了香港的不稳定，不过他承认自己没有任何证据证明这一点。 These days, Mr. Hu works through the night on editorials about the trade war, North Korea and other topics. He travels with an aide wherever he goes so that he can dictate editorials — punctuation included — as soon as an idea strikes him. He keeps a close eye on Mr. Trump’s Twitter account and on Fox News. 这些天，胡锡进彻夜工作，撰写关于贸易战、朝鲜和其他话题的社论。无论走到哪里，他身边都有助手陪同，以便他能在灵感闪现时口述社论（包括标点符号）。他密切关注特朗普的Twitter账号和福克斯新闻。 On a recent day, Mr. Hu published an editorial defending a Chinese diplomat who was criticized by Susan E. Rice, the American former national security adviser, for making racist comments. The editorial reprised one of Mr. Hu’s favorite themes: that the West is intent on “demonizing” China while ignoring its own “pride and prejudice.” 前不久，胡锡进发表了一篇社论，为一个因为发表种族言论而被前美国国家安全顾问苏珊·E·赖斯(Susan E. Rice)批评的中国外交官辩护。社论重申了胡锡进最喜欢的主题之一：西方意在“妖魔化”中国，同时无视自己的“傲慢与偏见”。 Mr. Hu is optimistic about China’s prospects for prevailing in the trade dispute, saying that the public is girded for a long-running battle. 胡锡进对中国在贸易争端中的可以占优势的前景持乐观态度，他说中国人民已经为持久战做好了准备。 As trade talks continue, the party has seemed to find it useful to amplify Mr. Hu’s hawkish views, featuring his editorials about Mr. Pompeo, for example, on the evening news. 随着贸易谈判继续进行，中共似乎觉得放大胡锡进的鹰派观点能带来好处，比如说在新闻联播中播出了他关于庞皮欧的社论。 Mr. Hu brushes aside criticism that he is exacerbating tensions between China and the United States by promoting nationalistic views. He blames American officials for the friction, likening their efforts to restrict Chinese technology companies to a form of warfare. Asked if he foresees military conflict between the two countries, Mr. Hu said the “possibility cannot be ruled out.” 对于那些认为他通过鼓吹民族主义来加剧中美之间紧张关系的批评，胡锡进表示不屑。他将这种摩擦归咎于美国官员，将他们限制中国科技企业的努力比作战争的一种形式。在被问到是否认为两国之间会发生军事冲突时，胡锡进表示，“这种可能性不能排除。” Mr. Hu then reconsidered his answer, worried his words might be perceived as too forceful. He offered a new assessment: “The danger is greater than before.” 随后，胡锡进重新考虑了一下自己的回答，担心他的话会被认为太冲了。他给出了一个新的评估：“这种危险比过去大。” 赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)是《纽约时报》驻北京记者。 Albee Zhang和Ailin Tang对本文有研究贡献。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年6月19日中国人民银行行长潘功胜周三在陆家嘴论坛上发表演讲。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images The governor of China’s central bank outlined a plan on Wednesday for a global financial system that relies on several major currencies, not just the dollar, as Beijing steps up its campaign to weaken the U.S. dollar’s primacy. 周三，中国央行行长略述了一个建立在多种主要货币而非单一美元基础上的全球货币体系，此举是中国政府加强削弱美元主导地位努力的一部分。 Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People’s Bank of China, did not mention the dollar by name but gave an extended critique of the potential dangers of international reliance on a single country’s currency. 中国人民银行行长潘功胜对国际货币体系依赖一个国家的主权货币存在的潜在危险做了多方面的批评。 In a coded reference to the United States, Mr. Pan cited the dangers posed by fiscal and regulatory problems in the country issuing the world’s main currency. 潘功胜列举了发行国际主导货币的国家的财政和监管问题给世界带来的风险，这是在隐晦地提及美国。 These problems may “overflow to the world in the form of financial risks, and even evolve into an international financial crisis,” he said. 他说，这些问题“会以金融风险的形式向全球溢出，甚至演变为国际金融危机”。 The Trump administration has spoken about weakening the dollar against other currencies to make U.S. exports more attractive to buyers abroad. The dollar has weakened considerably this year, including an 11 percent decline against the euro. 特朗普政府已表示要让美元贬值，以提高美国出口产品对海外买家的吸引力。美元今年已显著走弱，对欧元汇率已下跌了11%。 A weaker dollar could help narrow the American trade deficit. But it also has the potential to increase the cost of U.S. government borrowing amid ever-rising federal budget deficits. 虽然美元走弱会有助于缩小美国的贸易逆差，但在联邦预算赤字不断增长之际也可能增加美国政府的借贷成本。 China has kept the value of its currency, the renminbi, tightly linked to the dollar. That has meant it has fallen along with the dollar, making the price of China’s exports even more competitive in Europe, a major trading partner, and elsewhere. 中国一直让人民币与美元紧密挂钩。这意味着人民币对欧元汇率也在随着美元走弱，让中国出口产品的价格在其主要贸易伙伴——欧洲及其他地区更有竞争力。 广州的一个服装工人社区。中国政府正在强调加大对先进制造业的支持力度，提升人民币在全球的地位，而不是帮助消费者。 The dollar is by far the primary currency used in global trade, including when China is involved, followed by the euro. The renminbi has grown in use in recent years but remains a minor player in international trade. 美元目前仍是全球贸易中最主要的结算货币，包括涉及中国的贸易往来，其次为欧元。近年来，虽然人民币的使用有所增加，但在国际贸易中仍处于次要地位。 Mr. Pan warned that a country with a dominant currency inevitably seeks to unfairly “weaponize” it during geopolitical conflicts. China is closely aligned with Russia, Iran and North Korea and has objected to American measures aimed at choking off commerce with those countries. 潘功胜警告称，拥有国际主导货币的国家在地缘政治冲突中难免会不公平地将其“武器化”。中国与俄罗斯、伊朗，以及朝鲜关系密切，一直反对美国旨在切断这些国家商业往来的制裁措施。 China buys practically all of Iran’s oil exports and much of Russia’s oil and gas exports, and conducts these transactions through small Chinese banks and companies that have little need for dollars. 中国几乎包揽了伊朗全部的石油出口，以及俄罗斯油气出口的大部分，这些交易通过中国的小型银行和公司进行，基本上不需要用美元结算。 The strength of the dollar lies partly in its widespread use in financing international trade. Banks often rely on long-established procedures that are tied to the dollar, including some that still send faxes. Mr. Pan took aim at these arrangements, calling for more cross-border payments to use emerging technologies, including China’s digital renminbi. That could make it easier to experiment with transactions in currencies other than the dollar. 美元的强势地位部分来自于它在国际贸易融资中的广泛使用。银行体系长期依赖以美元为中心的传统结算流程，其中某些环节至今仍在使用传真机。潘功胜把批评的矛头对准这些安排，呼吁在跨境支付体系中更多地使用新兴技术，包括中国的数字人民币。那可能会让尝试使用非美元进行国际贸易变得更容易。 Mr. Pan and other top Chinese officials spoke on Wednesday at the opening in Shanghai of the Lujiazui Forum, the main annual gathering of China’s financial policymakers and executives. 潘功胜的演讲是在周三上海陆家嘴论坛的开幕式上发表的，致辞的还有其他中国高层官员。该论坛被视为中国金融政策制定者和高管们的年度主要聚会。 China faces formidable obstacles in promoting the renminbi as an alternative to the dollar. One of the biggest is that China has a huge and still rising trade surplus. As a result, much of the renminbi in overseas circulation is typically used to buy more Chinese goods or pay debts to China. 在推动人民币成为美元替代品的过程中，中国面临着巨大障碍。其中最为突出是持续扩大的巨额贸易顺差。因此，在境外流通的人民币中，很大一部分通常用于购买更多的中国商品或偿还欠中国的债务。 In addition, China tightly restricts how renminbi can be moved in or out of the country. The goal is to prevent Chinese companies and households from sending their savings to other countries for safekeeping or better financial returns. But these restrictions make the renminbi an ineffective way for foreigners to store value. 此外，中国严格限制人民币的跨境流动。目的是防止国内企业和家庭把储蓄转移到其他国家，寻求资产保值或更高投资收益。但这类限制也导致人民币难以成为外国投资者有效的价值储存工具。 Beijing has in recent years persuaded developing countries to settle some of their trade balances with China in renminbi. 近年来，中国政府已说服了多个发展中国家在对华贸易中使用人民币进行结算。 “China is not globalizing the renminbi in the Western sense, but regionalizing it — embedding the currency in trade, payments, and state-to-state ties, particularly across the Global South,” said Dan Wang, a China economist in the Singapore office of the Eurasia Group. “中国并不是在西方意义上让人民币全球化，而是推进人民币的区域化——将其纳入到贸易结算、支付系统以及国家间关系中来，尤其是在全球南方国家之间，”欧亚集团新加坡办事处的中国经济学家王丹说。 Mr. Pan conspicuously did not mention the financial struggles of China’s consumers in his remarks on Wednesday. Neither did Chen Jining, the Politburo member who is the Communist Party leader of Shanghai. He gave the opening speech at the forum and focused on the role of China’s financial sector in bankrolling investment in scientific and technological innovation. 潘功胜在周三的演讲中只字未提中国消费者面临的财务困境。陈吉宁也没提这个问题，他是中共中央政治局委员和上海市委书记。陈吉宁在论坛上发表了开幕词，重点讨论了中国金融行业在为科技创新提供资金方面起的作用。 The government-controlled banking sector has rapidly ramped up lending to manufacturers of electric cars, solar panels and other advanced technologies. At the same time, a collapse in the country’s housing market has dealt a severe blow to consumer spending. 政府控制的银行业已迅速增加了对电动汽车、太阳能电池板，以及其他先进技术制造商的贷款。与此同时，房地产市场的崩溃已重挫消费者支出。 Much of the country’s urban middle class has lost their life savings as apartment prices have fallen by a third to half. Prices started to plunge in 2021 after the government moved to address a decades-long speculative bubble that had driven real estate up as much as 20-fold in many cities, leaving new apartments unaffordable for many people. 随着房价已下跌三分之一到一半，中国许多城市中产阶级的毕生积蓄大幅缩水。政府在2021年采取限购措施，着手解决持续了几十年的房地产投机泡沫问题后，房价开始暴跌。房地产投机泡沫曾导致许多城市的房地产价格上涨了高达20倍，让许多人买不起新房。 Faint hints of a stabilization in consumer spending have emerged recently. Retail sales rose 6.4 percent in May from the same month last year, which was more than most economists had expected. 近期已出现了消费支出略有回稳的微弱迹象。今年5月份的零售额与去年同期相比增长了6.4%，高于大多数经济学家的预期。 But that gain, revealed in data issued by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, was propelled by sharp increases in a few categories of products made mainly in China, like household appliances, that have become eligible for government trade-in subsidies. 这个数据是中国国家统计局周一发布的，但5月零售额增长主要是受家电等几类以国产为主的产品强劲表现所推动，它们纳入了政府以旧换新补贴政策的范围。 Li You对本文有研究贡献。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
JOY DONG, DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI2025年6月18日上海一家珠宝店门外排队的消费者，摄于上月。 Ying Tang/NurPhoto, via Getty Images As the price of gold soared, Julie Li thought her investment in the precious metal was the smartest decision she had ever made. Across China, many like her have poured their savings into gold, lured by companies promising hefty returns far into the future. 随着金价飙升，朱莉·李（音）认为，对这种贵金属的投资是她做过的最明智的决定。在中国各地，无数像她这样的人把积蓄投入黄金，被那些许诺未来得到丰厚回报的公司所吸引。 About a year ago, Ms. Li invested about $35,000 in gold bars through Yongkun Gold, a company that runs an online platform and dozens of jewelry shops in eastern China. The investments performed so well that she used a credit card to put in $20,000 more. 大约一年前，李女士通过永坤黄金投资了约25万元人民币的金条。永坤黄金是一家在中国东部运营线上平台和数十家实体金店的企业。由于投资表现出色，她又刷信用卡追加了15万元。 Last month, Ms. Li and thousands of other Yongkun Gold investors were supposed to receive a payout from their accounts. Instead, the company halted all withdrawals and shuttered its shops. Its headquarters in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou closed, and the company stopped responding to calls and messages. 然而就在上个月，当朱莉·李和数以千名投资者准备获取收益时，永坤突然冻结所有账户、关闭线下门店，位于杭州的总部也人去楼空，公司不再回应电话和信息。 “That’s all my savings,” said Ms. Li, 28, who works as a customer service agent in China’s southwestern Sichuan Province. “The salesperson kept telling me that gold prices will keep rising.” 现年28岁、在中国西南省份四川从事客服工作的李女士说：“那是我的全部积蓄。销售人员一直告诉我，金价会持续上涨。” The enthusiasm of individual investors like Ms. Li has been a major factor in supercharging the price of gold, which has recently set a series of records. In the first three months of the year, Chinese investors bought roughly 124 metric tons of gold bars and coins, a 12 percent rise from the previous year and far more than investors in any other country, according to the World Gold Council. 像李女士这样的散户投资者的热情是推动金价最近屡创新高的主要因素之一。世界黄金协会的数据显示，今年前三个月，中国投资者购买了约124吨金条和金币，同比增长了12%，远超其他国家的投资者。 The plight of Ms. Li and many other gold investors whose money may be lost is a worry for Chinese officials, who are sensitive to any potential source of social unrest. The local police have started a criminal investigation into the company. 李女士和其他许多黄金投资者可能血本无归的困境令中国官员感到担忧，因为他们对任何可能造成社会不稳定的潜在源头都非常敏感。永坤黄金的一名客户告诉中国媒体，她家在该公司的投资高达1200万元。当地警方已对该公司展开刑事调查。 Financial crime victims are often closely surveilled in China because many have resorted to public protests. 警方在调查的同时也警告心怀不满的投资者，不要组织集体维权活动。在中国，金融犯罪受害者往往会遭到严密监控，因为许多人曾诉诸公开抗议。 Dozens of investors, from several parts of China, planned to gather and protest with banners in front of the Hangzhou city government on Wednesday. They were met by groups of police officers as soon as they arrived, and at least one person was briefly detained, according to some people who were there. The rest were escorted to another building that accepts public petitions. 本周三，来自全国多个省份的数十名投资者计划在杭州市政府门前拉横幅抗议。据一些在场人士称，他们刚抵达现场就被大批警力包围，至少一名情绪激动的投资者一度被拘留。其余人员被引导至信访办。 After they returned home, some investors received phone calls or visits from the police, who warned them against making further petitions. 他们回家后，一些投资者接到了警方的电话或登门拜访，警告他们不要再上访。 Gold is often considered a safe investment during times of economic or geopolitical turmoil, and China’s slowing economy and trade war with the United States could be driving some of the demand. 黄金通常被视为经济或地缘政治动荡时期的避险投资，而中国经济放缓以及与美国的贸易战可能是推动部分需求的原因。 The rapid rise in excitement for gold also reflects Chinese buyers’ faltering confidence in other investments. The property market has not recovered from a deep downturn, which led to the collapse of high-profile investment funds. Mainland stock markets have languished for years. 对黄金的热情快速升温也反映了中国的投资者对其他投资的信心不足。房地产市场尚未从严重低迷中复苏，这导致一些知名投资基金倒闭。中国大陆股市多年来一直萎靡不振。 That has made gold an appealing alternative. The Chinese are “high-conviction buyers” who have “changed the dynamics of the global gold bullion market,” said Ross Norman, the chief executive of Metals Daily, an information and research firm. 这使得黄金成为一个有吸引力的替代选择。信息研究公司Metals Daily的首席执行官罗斯·诺曼表示，中国投资者是“坚定的买入者”，他们“改变了全球金条市场的格局”。 Fueled by those convictions, Chinese investors have piled into gold funds, and an industry has flourished by hawking gold bars, coins and pebble-size beans. 在这些信念的推动下，中国投资者涌入黄金基金，一个销售金条、金币和小金豆的行业蓬勃发展。 Yongkun Gold Jewelry was founded in 2014 by Wang Guohai, a financial analyst who also sold gold and offered online investment services. Mr. Wang founded several asset management firms in the 2010s and earned honorary titles from government-backed institutions. 永坤黄金由金融分析师汪国海于2014年创立，该公司同时销售黄金并提供在线投资服务。汪国海在在本世纪前十年创立了数家资产管理公司，并获得了有着政府背景的机构授予的荣誉称号。 Investors took comfort in the company’s relatively long track record, its retail presence and the signs that it had a stamp of government approval. One of its subsidiaries, Yongkun Asset Management, had teamed up with the state-owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to sell gold-backed investments. Last year, Yongkun was praised by police for stopping scammers buying gold bars as part of a money-laundering operation. 公司相对较长的运营历史、零售网点的规模以及看似获得政府认可的形象让投资者感到放心。其子公司永坤资产管理曾与国有的中国工商银行合作销售以黄金为支撑的投资产品。去年，永坤黄金还因阻止诈骗分子购买金条进行洗钱活动而受到警方表扬。 Mr. Wang, Yongkun’s founder, was not reachable, and calls to the company were not answered. 记者无法联系到永坤黄金的创始人汪国海，公司电话也无人接听。 Ms. Li, the investor from Sichuan Province, said she had started putting money into Yongkun, drawn to the steady rise in gold prices when China’s banks were offering meager interest rates for savings deposits. 来自四川的投资者李女士表示，她开始将钱投入永坤黄金是因为金价稳步上涨，同时中国的银行所提供的储蓄存款利率太低。 Yongkun offered what seemed like a no-risk opportunity. Investors could order gold bars online and, after several weeks, either take delivery of them or sell them back to the company. They would pocket a profit if the price had risen, and if the price had fallen, Yongkun guaranteed to buy back the gold at the original purchase price, according to Ms. Li. 永坤黄金推出了一个看似零风险的投资方案。投资者可在网上下单购买金条，数周后既可选择提取实物黄金，也可将金条回售给公司——若金价上涨可赚取差价，若金价下跌，永坤承诺按原价回购，李女士说。 Customers who bought more than $400,000 worth of gold were promised an annual return of 9 percent. 公司承诺300万元以上的投资年化收益率高达9%。 Investors were given certificates attesting that the gold was stored in vaults at a branch of the state-owned Bank of China. However, when reached by phone, a representative for the bank branch, who gave only the surname Wang, said neither Yongkun Gold nor its affiliated companies had deposited gold there. 投资者获得了证明黄金存放在国有中国银行某支行金库的凭证。然而，当记者通过电话联系该支行时，一位只透露姓王的工作人员表示，永坤黄金及其关联公司都没有在那里存放黄金。 中国散户投资者的热情，是推动金价最近屡创新高的主要因素之一。 Fu Yindi, a college student from China’s northern Shandong Province, said her father, a construction worker, had invested the family’s life savings of more than $200,000, after a salesperson came to their home and guaranteed that the gold was being stored in bank vaults. 来自中国北方省份山东的大学生付茵迪（音）说，她的父亲是一名建筑工人，在一位销售员上门并保证黄金存放在银行金库后，把全家的积蓄140万元全部投了进去。 She said 700 other local residents, many of them retirees, had also invested with Yongkun shortly after the company opened a shop in their town, in the country’s largest gold-producing region. 她说，在永坤黄金到这个位于全国最大黄金产区的小城开设了一家门店后，还有700名当地居民也进行了投资，其中许多是退休人员。 “They believed the gold could keep its long-term value,” Ms. Fu said. “But now they can’t recover the money they saved.” “他们相信黄金能够保值，”付女士说。“但现在连本金都拿不回来了。” A former Yongkun employee, who asked not to be identified, said workers at the company had also invested in gold via the company’s funds, lured in part by lucrative bonuses for doing so. 一位不愿透露姓名的公司前员工透露，他们也通过公司基金投资了黄金，部分原因是这样做能获得丰厚的奖金。 Ms. Li said she was among the investors who traveled to Hangzhou last month to meet with the police and provide evidence. Yongkun investors have also used social media to claim that the company lost their life savings. The hashtag “yongkungold” has drawn about 30 million views on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok. 李女士表示，上月她曾与其他投资者前往杭州向警方提交证据。永坤投资者还在社交媒体控诉公司卷走毕生积蓄，抖音平台上#永坤黄金#的话题标签浏览量已突破3000万次。 Several Yongkun investors who spoke out on social media said they had received calls from the police. 几位在社交媒体上发声的投资者表示，他们接到了警方的电话。 Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者，报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MICHELLE GOLDBERG2025年6月18日 Natalie Keyssar for The New York Times Before this Saturday’s enormous nationwide No Kings protests, Leah Greenberg, a founder of Indivisible, one of the groups behind the demonstrations, worried that too many people had lost faith in their collective ability to stop Donald Trump from remaking America in his tawdry autocratic image. Her group realized that they needed “to reverse the sense that Trump is inevitable, that he’s going to win,” she told me. 在上周六全国范围内大规模的“不要国王”抗议活动之前，其背后的组织之一“不可分割”的创始人利亚·格林伯格曾担心，太多人已经对他们集体行动的能力失去了信心，认为他们无法阻止特朗普以他庸俗的独裁形象重塑美国。她告诉我，她的团队意识到，他们需要“扭转那种认为特朗普不可避免的、一定会赢的感觉”。 When Trump first took office in 2017, it seemed to much of the country a shocking fluke caused by the democratically dubious Electoral College, and his stunned opponents rose up in furious rejection. Trump’s inauguration weekend set the tone for the years to follow: Turnout at the event itself was underwhelming, while millions of impassioned people attended the Women’s March, at the time the biggest single-day protest in American history. The energy of the resistance was so strong it reached into Trump’s own administration, where several officials devoted themselves to trying to curb his worst excesses. 当特朗普在2017年首次上任时，在美国很多人看来，这似乎是民主性存疑的选举团制度造成的惊人侥幸，反对者们目瞪口呆，奋起怒斥他。那一次，特朗普的就职典礼周末为接下来的几年定下了基调：就职典礼本身的到场人数平平，然而数百万人参加了群情激昂的女性大游行，在当时是美国历史上规模最大的单日抗议活动。抵制的力量如此强大，甚至影响到了特朗普自己的政府——几名政府官员致力于遏制他最恶劣的行为。 This time around, there’s less hope and more resignation. In the last election Trump won the popular vote, and most demographics shifted rightward. The resistance has seemed exhausted and demoralized, and leaders in business, law and academia have adjusted accordingly. “One of the dominant differences between 2017 and 2025 is the degree of elite collapse in particular,” said Greenberg. “People who have power in different institutions that have some role in upholding democracy overwhelmingly, from November on, have been operating to secure their own safety and position under the Trump administration.” 这一次，希望少了，无奈多了。特朗普在大选中赢得了普选，大多数人向右倾斜。抵抗力量似乎已经筋疲力尽，士气低落，商界、法律界和学术界的领袖们也做出了相应的调整。“2017年和2025年的主要区别之一是精英阶层的崩溃程度，”格林伯格说。“从11月开始，绝大多数在不同机构中拥有权力、对维护民主有一定作用的人都在为确保自己在特朗普政府下的安全和地位而运作。” Tech barons lined up to kiss the ring at Trump’s swearing-in. In response to Trump’s flimsy lawsuits, media conglomerates offered millions in what seemed like protection money. Law firms and college presidents buckled. 科技大亨在特朗普的宣誓就职仪式上排队臣服。为了回应特朗普不堪一击的诉讼，媒体集团拿出了数百万美元，看上去就是在交保护费。律师事务所和大学校长都屈服了。 Such acquiescence, Greenberg thought, was rational if people assumed that Trumpism would triumph. The No Kings protests, held on the same day that Trump was hosting a military parade in Washington, were meant to challenge that assumption. They succeeded, with Trump’s help. 格林伯格认为，如果人们认为特朗普主义会取得胜利，这种默许就是合理的。在特朗普在华盛顿举行阅兵式的同一天举行的“不要国王”抗议活动意在挑战这种假设。在特朗普的帮助下，他们成功了。 《华尔街日报》形容聚集在华盛顿观看阅兵式的人群“稀疏”“压抑”。 John Francis Peters for The New York Times There were protests in over 2,100 cities and towns, from New York and Los Angeles to tiny hamlets in Alaska. Trump almost certainly helped juice attendance by sending the military into Los Angeles; as Greenberg told me, about 500 of the events were organized just in the last week. The data journalist G. Elliott Morris estimated that four million to six million people turned out, which would make No Kings the largest day of protest America has ever seen. Even if his figures are inflated, the day left little question that the resistance to Trump has been reawakened. 从纽约、洛杉矶到阿拉斯加的小村庄，2100多个城镇发生了抗议活动。特朗普派遣军队进入洛杉矶，几乎肯定有助于增加抗议人数；正如格林伯格告诉我的那样，仅在上周就组织了大约500场活动。数据记者埃利奥特·莫里斯估计，有400万至600万人参加了抗议活动，这将使“不要国王”运动成为美国有史以来规模最大的单日抗议活动。即使他的数据有所夸大，这一天也毫无疑问地表明，对特朗普的抵制已经被重新唤醒。 The crowds in big cities were, unsurprisingly, huge, but local news outlets also reported thousands of people protesting in places like Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, and in the Villages, the famously conservative Florida retirement community. 大城市的抗议人群之多不足为奇，但当地新闻媒体也报道了爱达荷州科达伦和佛罗里达州著名的保守派退休社区威利奇斯等地，有数千人参加抗议活动。 But what really made No Kings feel like a potential turning point was the juxtaposition with Trump’s anemic parade in Washington, which fell on his birthday, though it was ostensibly held to celebrate the Army’s 250th anniversary. Videos showed tanks squeaking down the street in front of viewing stands that were more than half empty. The Wall Street Journal, no left-wing rag, described the crowd as “sparse” and “subdued.” A display that was meant to be bombastic and menacing instead looked pathetic. 然而真正让“不要国王”运动成为一个潜在转折点的是，它与特朗普在华盛顿的那场无精打采的阅兵分庭抗礼。虽然表面上是为了庆祝建军250周年，阅兵式恰逢特朗普生日。视频显示坦克在看台前的街道上吱吱作响，观礼台上空了一半以上。非左翼报纸《华尔街日报》形容人群“稀疏”“压抑”。一场本应轰轰烈烈、气势汹汹的展示反而显得很可悲。 The contrast between the protests and the parade reflects a larger political reality. Trump returned to office much stronger than he’d been in his first term, but Americans seem to be remembering why they disliked him. A Quinnipiac poll from last week had his approval rating at 38 percent. In a survey conducted last Tuesday by The Washington Post and George Mason University’s Schar School, only 37 percent of respondents approved of the president’s handling of immigration enforcement. Some politicians and pundits assumed that Trump would benefit from deploying soldiers to Los Angeles, imagining that voters would see him as tough and decisive. So far, there’s little evidence of that. 抗议和游行之间的反差反映了一个更大的政治现实。特朗普再次上台时比他第一个任期时更加强势，但美国人似乎又记起了当初不喜欢他的原因。昆尼皮亚克大学上周的一项民意调查显示，他的支持率为38%。《华盛顿邮报》和乔治梅森大学沙尔学院上周二进行的一项调查显示，只有37%的受访者支持总统对移民执法的处理。一些政界人士和专家认为，向洛杉矶部署士兵会让特朗普受益，并想象选民会认为他强硬果断。然而到目前为止，几乎没有证据表明这一点。 Now Trump seems determined to heighten the cruelty and chaos that are repelling so many Americans. In response to complaints from farmers and owners of hotels and restaurants, his administration ordered Immigration and Customs Enforcement to suspend many workplace raids. But to keep his mass deportation project alive — while punishing his political enemies — he’s ordered ICE to redouble its focus on big American cities, calling them, on his website Truth Social, the “core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State.” He’s seeking a nakedly political crackdown on urban America, designed to create more furious confrontations like those in Los Angeles. 现在，特朗普似乎决心要加剧令许多美国人反感的残酷和混乱。为了回应农民、酒店和餐馆老板的不满，他的政府命令移民和海关执法局暂停对许多工作场所的突击搜查。但为了让他的大规模驱逐计划继续下去，同时惩罚他的政敌，他命令执法局将重点放在大城市，在他的网站Truth Social上，他称这些城市是“民主党权力中心的核心，他们利用非法移民扩大票仓，在选举中作弊，并发展福利国家”。他正在寻求对美国城市进行赤裸裸的政治镇压，旨在制造更多像洛杉矶那样的激烈对抗。 Indeed, the more he feels his position weakening, the more he’s likely to lash out. This dynamic is terrible for the country, but it might also end up being bad for him. Trump will keep trying to tear this increasingly fragile and beleaguered nation apart. But as Saturday showed, if and when he does so, he may not end up with the biggest piece. 事实上，越是感到自己的地位受到削弱，他就越有可能猛烈出击。这种趋势对这个国家来说是可怕的，但最终也可能对他不利。特朗普将继续试图撕裂这个日益脆弱和陷入困境的国家。但正如周六所显示的那样，如果他这么做了，他最终可能不会获得大多数的支持。 Michelle Goldberg自2017年起担任时报专栏作者。她著有多本关于政治、宗教和女性权利的书籍，也是2018年因报道工作场所性骚扰问题而获得普利策公共服务奖的团队成员之一。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
JULIAN E. BARNES2025年6月18日DeepSeek在北京的办公室。它是据信中国的情报机构正在使用的人工智能模型之一。 Peter Catterall/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Chinese spy services have invested heavily in artificial intelligence to create new tools to speed analysis, provide early warning of threats and potentially help shape operational plans during a war, according to a new report. 据一份新的报告称，中国的情报机构已在人工智能领域投入巨资，创建新的工具来加快分析速度，提供威胁预警，并有可能在战争期间帮助制定作战计划。 China, like the United States, hopes that artificial intelligence will improve the efficiency and accuracy of its intelligence analysis, allowing it to collect more intelligence and analyze it faster and more cheaply. 与美国一样，中国也希望人工智能能够提高情报分析的效率和准确性，使其能够收集更多情报，并且更快、更便宜地进行分析。 The study, by Recorded Future’s Insikt Group, which studies cybersecurity and other threats from nation-states, terrorists and criminal groups, comes amid rising concern about how Chinese spy agencies will use A.I. to power covert actions, as Western intelligence services also embrace the technology. 这份研究报告由“记录未来”的Insikt小组撰写，该组织研究网络安全以及来自民族国家、恐怖分子和犯罪团伙的其他威胁。这项研究是在外界对中国间谍机构将如何利用人工智能技术增强秘密行动能力的担忧日益加剧之际进行的，与此同时，西方情报机构也在采纳这项技术。 The researchers reviewed patent applications by the People’s Liberation Army, publicly available contracts and other material to better understand how China’s military and intelligence services have invested in artificial intelligence. 研究人员对中国人民解放军的专利申请、公开合同和其他材料进行了评估，以便更好地了解中国军方和情报部门如何投资于人工智能。 Recorded Future found that China is probably using a mix of large language models, technology that can analyze huge amounts of data and communicate its results in human language. Meta and OpenAI are thought to be among the American models that China is using, along with Chinese models from DeepSeek, Zhipu AI and others. “记录未来”发现，中国可能正在混合使用各种大语言模型，这种技术可以分析大量数据，并用人类语言传达结果。Meta和OpenAI被认为是中国正在使用的美国模型之一，此外还有DeepSeek、智谱AI等公司的中国模型。 The C.I.A. and other American spy agencies have stepped up their use of artificial intelligence, both to improve analytic work and to help overseas operatives remain undiscovered. One tool developed by the C.I.A. is designed to help analysts assess the positions of foreign leaders, creating virtual versions of the officials that are powered by artificial intelligence. 中央情报局和其他美国情治单位已经加强了对人工智能的使用，一方面是为了改进分析工作，另一方面是为了帮助海外特工不被发现。CIA开发的一种工具旨在帮助分析人员评估外国领导人的立场，通过人工智能创建这些官员的虚拟版本。 The Pentagon announced on Monday that it was awarding a $200 million contract to OpenAI. The company, in a release, said its OpenAI for Government initiative would be used to improve administrative operations, including health care, but also improve work on military acquisition programs and support “proactive cyberdefense.” 周一，五角大楼宣布，将授予OpenAI一份价值2亿美元的合同。OpenAI在新闻稿中表示，其“政府OpenAI”计划将用于改善包括医疗保健在内的行政运营，同时也将改善军事采购项目的工作，并支持“主动网络防御”。 Former American intelligence officials have said China’s large population has long given it a potential advantage over U.S. spy agencies, but artificial intelligence could even the playing field. Generative A.I. models can scan huge amounts of collected communications intelligence and queue the most interesting information for human analysts to examine. 前美国情报官员表示，长期以来，中国庞大的人口使其在与美国情报单位的竞争中具有潜在优势，但人工智能可以平衡竞争环境。生成式人工智能模型可以扫描收集到的大量通信情报，并将最引人关注的信息排列出来，供人类分析师审查。 Some U.S. officials said China’s investment in artificial intelligence was of little surprise, given its potential to improve analytic assessments. But the Recorded Future report found specific examples of how China could be using large language models and generative A.I. to not just improve its intelligence analysis, but also help military commanders improve targeting and operational plans. 一些美国官员表示，考虑到人工智能在改进分析评估方面的潜力，中国在人工智能方面的投资并不令人意外。但“记录未来”的报告发现了一些具体的例子，说明中国如何利用大语言模型和生成式人工智能，不仅可以改善其情报分析，还可以帮助军事指挥官改进目标定位和行动计划。 In October, Ordnance Science and Research Academy of China filed a patent application to use various forms of intelligence to train a military model. The application talks about the ways the model could be used, such as by crafting operational plans and helping battlefield intelligence analysts analyze friendly and enemy forces, according to Zoe Haver, the author of the study and a senior threat intelligence analyst at the Insikt Group. 去年10月，中国兵器科学研究院提交了一份利用各种形式的情报来训练军事模型的专利申请。该研究报告的作者、Inskt小组的高级威胁情报分析师佐伊·哈弗表示，该申请讨论了大语言模型的使用方式，比如制定行动计划，帮助战场情报分析师分析友军和敌军。 “This was very broad ranging, and intended to be applicable across the intelligence cycle,” Ms. Haver said. “涉及范围非常广泛，旨在适用于整个情报周期，”哈弗说。 Over the last two years, China has tightened control over information about what its military and intelligence agencies have obtained. So while Recorded Future was often able to see the military’s procurement of generative A.I. models and servers, it was not always clear how the technology would be used. But some Chinese contractors appeared to have grand ambitions. 在过去两年中，中国加强了对军队和情报机构所获信息披露的控制。因此，虽然“记录未来”时常能够看到军方采购生成式人工智能模型和服务器，但并不总是清楚这项技术将如何使用。不过，一些中国承包商似乎有着宏伟的抱负。 China’s military and intelligence agencies appear to have quickly pivoted from open source and Western A.I. to DeepSeek, which unveiled a model rivaling OpenAI’s model, ChatGPT, the day after Christmas. Global interest in DeepSeek’s model exploded in January. By the end of February, military procurement records appeared showing Chinese companies quickly taking up DeepSeek’s technology. 中国的军队和情报机构似乎已迅速从开源和西方人工智能转向DeepSeek，该公司在圣诞节后的第二天发布了一款与OpenAI的模型ChatGPT相抗衡的模型。今年1月，全球对DeepSeek模型的兴趣激增。到2月底，军事采购记录显示，中国企业正在迅速采用DeepSeek的技术。 At the same time, American firms have cracked down on China’s use of their models. 与此同时，美国公司也在打击中国使用其模型的行为。 This month, OpenAI reported that it had disrupted several operations most likely originating in China that had tried to use its artificial intelligence tools in malicious ways. The operations were a combination of influence campaigns and surveillance, according to OpenAI. One of them tried to use ChatGPT to generate comments on social media sites about the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development. 本月，OpenAI报告称，它中断了数起很可能源自中国的行动，这些行动试图以恶意方式使用其人工智能工具。据OpenAI称，这些行动是影响力宣传活动和监视的结合。其中一项行动试图利用ChatGPT生成关于美国国际开发署解散的评论，供其在社交媒体网站上发表。 To train a model to provide meaningful insight on intelligence, a government needs to give it access to its intelligence data, which can be difficult while still keeping classified material secure. 要训练一个模型提供有意义的情报见解，政府需要让它访问自己的情报数据，同时又要确保机密材料的安全，这可能很困难。 Chinese intelligence products are often infused with the ideology of the ruling Communist Party. Ms. Haver said a model trained on such reports would produce intelligence biased in the same way. But whether the Chinese government sees that as a problem is another question. 中国的情报产品经常融入执政共产党的意识形态。哈弗说，接受过这类报告训练的模型也会产生同样带有偏见的情报。但中国政府是否认为这是个问题，那又是另一回事了。 “Some Chinese public security researchers are talking about ChatGPT being used for intelligence,” Ms. Haver said. “And they are worried about how objectivity, neutrality, neoliberalism and capitalistic values could infiltrate Chinese intelligence work if they use foreign models.” “一些中国公共安全研究人员正在讨论ChatGPT被用于情报，”哈弗说。“他们担心，如果使用外国模型，客观、中立、新自由主义和资本主义价值观可能会渗透到中国的情报工作中。” Julian E. Barnes为《纽约时报》报道美国情报机构和国际安全事务。他撰写安全相关议题已有20余年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID E. SANGER, JONATHAN SWAN2025年6月18日逃离德黑兰的伊朗人在加油站排起了长队，摄于周一。 Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is weighing a critical decision in the days-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by U.S. B-2 bombers, can reach. 华盛顿——特朗普总统正在权衡一个关键决定：是否介入以色列和伊朗之间已进行了几天的战斗，帮助以色列摧毁位于伊朗福尔多深埋地下的铀浓缩设施——这只有美国的B-2战略轰炸机投掷的巨型钻地弹“碉堡克星”才可以做到。 If he decides to go ahead, the United States will become a direct participant in a new conflict in the Middle East, taking on Iran in exactly the kind of war Trump has sworn, in two campaigns, he would avoid. Iranian officials have warned that U.S. participation in an attack on its facilities will imperil any remaining chance of the nuclear disarmament deal that Trump insists he is still interested in pursuing. 如果特朗普决定那样做的话，美国将成为中东地区一场新冲突的直接参与者，与伊朗进行一场他在两次总统大选中都誓言要避免的那种战争。伊朗官员们已警告称，若美国参与打击伊朗设施的行动，将彻底扼杀特朗普声称自己仍有意推进的核裁军协议残存的希望。 Trump has encouraged Vice President JD Vance and his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to offer to meet the Iranians this week, according to a U.S. official. The offer may be well received, and Trump said Monday that “I think Iran basically is at the negotiating table, they want to make a deal.” 据一名美国官员称，特朗普已鼓励副总统万斯和白宫中东特使史蒂夫·维特科夫提出本周与伊朗人见面的建议。该提议也许会获得积极回应，特朗普周一曾表示，“我认为伊朗基本上已坐到谈判桌上来，他们想达成协议。” The urgency appeared to be rising. The White House announced late Monday that Trump was leaving the Group of 7 summit early because of the situation in the Middle East. 谈判的紧迫性似乎正在与日俱增。白宫在周一晚些时候宣布，由于中东局势，特朗普将提前离开七国集团峰会。 “As soon as I leave here, we’re going to be doing something,” Trump said. “But I have to leave here.” “我一离开这里，我们就会干点什么，”特朗普说。“但我需要先离开这里。” What he intended to do remained unclear. 他打算做什么仍不清楚。 If Vance and Witkoff did meet with the Iranians, officials say, the likely Iranian interlocutor would be the country’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, who played a key role in the 2015 nuclear deal with the Obama administration and knows every element of Iran’s sprawling nuclear complex. Araghchi, who has been Witkoff’s counterpart in recent negotiations, signaled his openness to a deal Monday, saying in a statement, “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential.” 官员们说，如果万斯和维特科夫的确与伊朗方面举行了会晤的话，对方最有可能出面的是外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇。他曾在2015年与奥巴马政府达成核协议上起过关键作用，对伊朗庞大的核设施了如指掌。最近几轮谈判一直在阿拉格奇和维特科夫之间进行，阿拉格奇周一已发信号表示对达成协议持开放态度，他在一份声明中说，“如果特朗普总统真心实意地致力于外交，有意停止这场战争的话，后续行动将至关重要。” “It takes one phone call from Washington to muzzle someone like Netanyahu,” he said, referring to the Israeli prime minister. “That may pave the way for a return to diplomacy.” “来自华盛顿的一个电话就能把内塔尼亚胡这样的人管住，”他提到以色列总理时说。“那也许为重返外交铺平道路。” But if that diplomatic effort fizzles, or the Iranians remain unwilling to give in to Trump’s central demand that they must ultimately end all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, the president will still have the option of ordering that Fordo and other nuclear facilities be destroyed. 但如果外交努力失败，或伊朗人仍不愿屈服于特朗普的核心要求，那就是他们彻底必须停止在伊朗境内浓缩铀，特朗普仍可选择下令摧毁福尔多以及其他地方的核设施。 伊朗的导弹已对几个以色列城市进行了打击，包括特拉维夫以东的贝内贝拉克。 There is only one weapon for the job, experts contend. It is called the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, or the GBU-57, and it weighs so much — 30,000 pounds — that it can be lifted only by a B-2 bomber. Israel does not own either the weapon or the bomber needed to get it aloft and over a target. 专家们指出，只有一种武器能完成这项任务。它是代号GBU-57的巨型钻地弹，这种炸弹重达13.6吨，只有B-2战略轰炸机能运载它们。以色列没有这种武器，也没有将其运到目标上空所需的轰炸机。 If Trump holds back, it could well mean that Israel’s main objective in the war is never completed. 如果特朗普选择踌躇不前的话，那很可能意味着以色列这场战斗的主要目标永远无法实现。 “Fordo has always been the crux of this thing,” said Brett McGurk, who worked on Middle East issues for four successive U.S. presidents, from George W. Bush to Joe Biden. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.” “福尔多一直是这件事的关键，”布雷特·麦格克说，他曾在从乔治·W·布什到乔·拜登连续四任美国总统手下负责中东事务。“如果这场战斗结束，但福尔多仍在浓缩铀，那就不是一个战略收获。” That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew. 这一判断长期成立。过去两年里，美国军队在白宫的密切监督下不断完善作战方案。演习得出的结论是：一枚炸弹解决不了问题；针对福尔多的打击需要轮流进行，一架B-2投下炸弹后，需要下一架B-2把炸弹投进同一个洞。而且，行动需要由美国飞行员和机组人员执行。 This was all in the world of war planning until the opening salvos Friday morning in Tehran, Iran’s capital, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the strikes, declaring that Israel had discovered an “imminent” threat that required “preemptive action.” New intelligence, he suggested without describing the details, indicated that Iran was on the cusp of turning its fuel stockpile into weapons. 这些计划原本仅停留在战争推演阶段，直到上周五上午，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡以发现了一个“迫在眉睫”的威胁为由下令采取“先发制人的行动”，对伊朗首都德黑兰发起攻击。他暗示新情报表明，伊朗即将把积累起来的核燃料转化为武器，但他没有透露细节。 U.S. intelligence officials who have followed the Iranian program for years agree that Iranian scientists and nuclear specialists have been working to shorten the time it would take to manufacture a nuclear bomb, but they saw no huge breakthroughs. 多年来一直跟踪伊朗核项目的美国情报官员一致认为，伊朗的科学家和核专家们一直在努力缩短制造核弹所需的时间，但他们还没有看到重大突破。 美国总统特朗普周一在加拿大艾伯塔省的卡纳纳斯基斯。他需要权衡自己是否想让美国卷入伊朗与以色列的冲突。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times Yet they agree with McGurk and other experts on one point: If the Fordo facility survives the conflict, Iran will retain the key equipment it needs to stay on a pathway to the bomb, even if it would first have to rebuild much of the nuclear infrastructure that Israel has left in ruins over four days of precision bombing. 但他们与麦格克和其他专家在一个问题上意见一致：如果福尔多的核设施在冲突后继续存在下去，伊朗将在通往核弹的道路上保留所需的关键设备，即使伊朗将不得不先重建被以色列在四天的精确轰炸中摧毁的大部分核基础设施。 Netanyahu has pressed for the United States to make its bunker busters available since the Bush administration, so far to no avail. But people who have spoken to Trump in recent months say the topic has come up repeatedly in his conversations with the prime minister. When Trump has been asked about it, he usually avoids a direct answer. 内塔尼亚胡从布什政府起就一直要求美国向以色利提供“碉堡克星”，但到目前为止还未能如愿。但近几个月里与特朗普讨论过的人表示，这个话题在特朗普与内塔尼亚胡的交谈中反复出现。每当后者向特朗普提这件事时，特朗普通常避免直接回答。 Now the pressure is on. Former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who resigned in a split with Netanyahu, told CNN’s Bianna Golodryga on Monday that “the job has to be done, by Israel, by the United States,” an apparent reference to the fact that the bomb would have to be dropped by an American pilot in a U.S. airplane. He said that Trump had “the option to change the Middle East and influence the world.” 压力持续升级。约阿夫·加兰特曾任以色列国防部长，后因与内塔尼亚胡意见不合辞职，加兰特周一在接受CNN记者比安娜·戈洛德里加采访时说，“这项任务必须完成，由以色列来完成，由美国来完成”，他显然是指“碉堡克星”需要由美国飞行员驾驶美国飞机去投。他称特朗普有“改变中东局势、影响世界的选项”。 And Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who often speaks for the traditional, hawkish members of his party, said on CBS on Sunday that “if diplomacy is not successful” he will “urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program.” 经常代表共和党的传统鹰派发言的南卡罗来纳州联邦参议员林赛·格雷厄姆周日在哥伦比亚广播公司的一个节目中说，“如果外交努力不成功”，他将“敦促特朗普总统采取一切办法，确保这次行动结束后，不给伊朗的核计划留下任何东西”。 “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs,” he said, adding, in a clear reference to the Massive Ordinance Penetrator, “whatever bombs. If it means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.” “如果这意味着提供炸弹，那就提供炸弹，”他补充道，显然是指“巨型钻地弹”。“不管是什么炸弹。如果这意味着与以色列人一起飞，那就与以色列人一起飞。” 周日，驻守在雷霍沃特市的以色列士兵，该市此前遭到伊朗导弹袭击。 But Republicans are hardly united in that view. And the split in the party over the decision of whether to make use of one of the Pentagon’s most powerful conventional weapons to help one of America’s closest allies has highlighted a far deeper divide. It is not only about crippling the centrifuges of Fordo; it is also about MAGA’s view of what kinds of wars the United States should avoid at all costs. 但共和党人对这个问题的看法并非铁板一块。党内围绕着是否应该动用五角大楼最强大的常规武器之一支援亲密盟友的问题上所存在的分歧暴露出了更深层次的裂痕。这不仅关乎摧毁福尔多的离心机，也关乎MAGA（让美国再次伟大）支持者对美国应该不惜一切代价避免哪类战争的看法。 The anti-interventionist wing of the party, given its most prominent voice by influential podcaster Tucker Carlson, has argued that the lesson of Iraq and Afghanistan is that there is nothing but downside risk in getting deeply into another Middle East war. On Friday, Carlson wrote that the United States should “drop Israel” and “let them fight their own wars.” 共和党内反对干预的派系认为，伊拉克和阿富汗的教训表明，深度卷入又一场中东战争只会带来不利方面的风险，该派系的主要代言人是颇有影响力的播客主持塔克·卡尔森。卡尔森上周五写道，美国应该“不管以色列”，“让他们去打他们自己的仗。” For now, Trump can afford to keep one foot in both camps. By making one more run at coercive diplomacy, he can make the case to the MAGA faithful that he is using the threat of the Massive Ordnance Penetrator to bring the conflict to a peaceful end. And he can tell the Iranians that they are going to cease enriching uranium one way or the other, either by diplomatic agreement or because a GBU-57 imploded the mountain. 就目前而言，特朗普仍然能游走于两派之间。通过再给强制性外交一次机会，他能让MAGA忠诚者们相信，他正在用巨型钻地弹的威胁让冲突和平地结束。同时，他告诉伊朗人，无论如何必须停止浓缩铀，要么通过外交协议，要么让GBU-57巨型钻地弹炸毁那座山。 But if the combination of persuasion and coercion fails, he will have to decide whether this is Israel’s war or America’s. 但如果把劝说和胁迫结合起来的手段失败的话，他将不得不决定，这是以色列的战争，还是美国的战争。 德黑兰市中心的大巴扎，摄于周一。 Farnaz Fassihi自纽约、Patrick Kingsley自耶路撒冷对本文有报道贡献。 David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。 Jonathan Swan是时报白宫记者，负责报道特朗普政府。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎2025年6月17日中国重庆的航运码头，这里是连接中国与东南亚国家贸易航线的枢纽。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times Two decades ago, China shocked the United States with its ability to make and ship things fast and inexpensively on a scale never before seen. The resulting surge of exports reshaped America’s economy and its politics. 20年前，中国以其前所未有的快速、廉价的制造和运输能力震惊了美国。由此产生的出口激增重塑了美国的经济和政治。 Today, a new China shock is cascading across the globe from Indonesia to Germany to Brazil. 如今，从印度尼西亚到德国再到巴西，一场新的中国冲击正在席卷全球。 As President Trump’s tariffs start to shut China out of the United States, its biggest market, Chinese factories are sending their toys, cars and shoes to other countries at a pace that is reshaping economies and geopolitics. 随着特朗普总统的关税开始将中国挡在其最大市场美国之外，中国工厂正以一种正在重塑经济和地缘政治的速度将玩具、汽车和鞋子运往其他国家。 This year so far, China’s trade surplus with the world is nearly $500 billion — a more than 40 percent increase from the same period last year. 今年到目前为止，中国对世界的贸易顺差接近5000亿美元，比去年同期增长了40%以上。 As the world’s two superpowers duke it out over trade, the rest of the world is now bracing for an even bigger China shock. 随着世界上两个超级大国在贸易问题上展开较量，世界其他地区正准备迎接更大的中国冲击。 “China has loads of things that it needs to export, and whether or not the U.S. puts tariffs on China, it’s pretty much impossible to stop the shifts in flows,” said Leah Fahy, a China economist at Capital Economics. “中国有很多东西需要出口，无论美国是否对中国征收关税，都几乎不可能阻止商品流动的变化，”凯投宏观的中国经济学家利亚·费伊说。 重庆的一条电动汽车装配线。与一年前相比，中国今年生产的电动汽车数量增加了45%。 The flood of exports from China is the consequence of government policy and a slowing domestic economy. To soften the blow of a real estate crisis that reduced the wealth of millions of households, Beijing has for several years been shoveling money into its manufacturing sectors, which are making far more things than there is demand for at home. 中国大量出口是政府政策和国内经济放缓的结果。房地产危机使数百万家庭的财富缩水，为了减轻危机的打击，北京多年来一直在向制造业投入大量资金，制造业生产的产品远远超过国内需求。 China’s global market share for all categories of goods has risen sharply, according to an analysis by Ms. Fahy. This will continue despite the tariffs because Beijing is unlikely to change the course of its export-oriented policies. 根据费伊的分析，中国在所有类别商品的全球市场份额都大幅上升。尽管征收了关税，这种情况仍将继续，因为北京不太可能改变其出口导向政策的方向。 By diverting the flow of its stuff to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe, China has already eased the economic effect of a plunge in demand from the United States. But it puts China in potential conflict with trading partners that are also facing pressure from Washington. 通过将其货物流向东南亚、拉丁美洲和欧洲，中国已缓解了美国需求急剧下降所带来的经济影响。但这将使中国与同样面临华盛顿压力的贸易伙伴发生潜在冲突。 Mr. Trump is threatening steep tariffs for the same countries that are being inundated with more Chinese goods, like Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia. Those tariffs have, for now, been put on pause for negotiations. Some countries have benefited from an increase in investment by foreign companies that are trying to shift production from China as quickly as possible. 特朗普威胁要对越南、柬埔寨和印度尼西亚等被更多中国商品淹没的国家征收高额关税。目前，这些关税已暂停，有待进一步谈判。一些国家因外国公司增加投资而受益，这些公司正试图尽快将生产从中国转移出去。 一艘装满集装箱的驳船停靠在武汉阳逻港，这是长江上的一个国内和国际货运港口。将出口产品流向其他国家有助于中国缓解美国需求骤降带来的影响。 Others have also been able to reship some Chinese goods by exporting them to the United States. But if they cannot negotiate the tariffs much lower, homegrown companies in countries facing severe U.S. tariffs in Southeast Asia and elsewhere could be crushed by competition from Chinese companies. 还有一些公司通过向美国出口来转运一些中国商品。但如果他们不能通过谈判大幅降低关税，东南亚和其他地区面临美国严重关税的国家的本土企业可能会被来自中国企业的竞争压垮。 As much as Mr. Trump has disrupted trade with tariff levels not seen in a century, the drastic shift in China’s exports was building long before he took office in January. 尽管特朗普以一个世纪未见的关税水平扰乱了贸易，但早在他今年1月上任之前，中国出口的急剧变化就已经在形成。 China’s property crisis — a glut of housing, plunging prices and widespread bankruptcies — began to reverberate through the economy in 2021. China’s policymakers wasted no time diverting cheap loans away from developers to exporters and manufacturers, a move that eventually offset the collapse in construction, which at its peak contributed to one-third of economic growth. 中国的房地产危机——住房过剩、价格暴跌和普遍破产——在2021年开始影响整个经济。中国的政策制定者不失时机地将低息贷款从开发商转移到出口商和制造商，此举最终抵消了建筑业的崩溃，建筑业在其鼎盛时期对中国经济增长的贡献达到三分之一。 2022年10月，中国南昌一个在建的住宅开发项目。 For Beijing, it was a tried-and-tested move: Throw money at the problem. 对北京来说，这是一个屡试不爽的举措：砸钱解决问题。 “They often overinvest to get the scale first, and then the process is aided by government policies,” said Tommy Wu, an economist at Commerzbank. “That contributes to why we have this problem today.” “他们往往先进行过度投资以扩大规模，然后再通过政府政策来推动这一进程，”德国商业银行经济学家汤米·吴（音）表示。“这就是我们今天遇到这个问题的原因。” China had already embarked on a domestic industrial policy in 2015, known as Made in China 2025, to make higher-skilled, more valuable goods like sophisticated computer chips and electric vehicles. That initiative led the United States and Europe to raise tariffs on electric cars, solar panels and other high-technology products. 中国在2015年启动了一项名为《中国制造2025》的国内产业政策，以生产技术含量更高、价值更高的产品，如精密电脑芯片和电动汽车。这一举措导致美国和欧洲提高了电动汽车、太阳能电池板和其他高科技产品的关税。 But China’s drive to boost manufacturing since the property market collapse has gone much further. Even while making more advanced products, Chinese manufacturers doubled down on making tchotchkes, the kinds of cheaper things that China excelled at making two decades ago. China rewrote the playbook, confounding economists. 但是，自房地产市场崩溃以来，中国推动制造业的努力走得更远。在制造更先进产品的同时，中国制造商也在加倍努力制造小商品，也就是中国20年前擅长制造的那些相对便宜的东西。中国改写了游戏规则，令经济学家感到困惑。 中国出口繁荣的部分原因是政府鼓励在制造业中使用先进技术的广泛政策。中国在大幅增加先进制造业投资同时，还加倍生产廉价商品，这令经济学家感到困惑。 “China is not developing the way economic theory suggests, and now we are faced with a new model,” said Priyanka Kishore, an economist in Singapore, referring to the traditional trajectory of economies that move away from low-end manufacturing as they become more mature and developed. 新加坡经济学家普里扬卡·基肖尔说：“中国并没有按照经济理论所建议的方式发展，现在我们面临着一种新的模式。”她所称的经济理论建议的方式是指，随着经济变得更加成熟和发达，传统的经济轨迹会逐渐摆脱低端制造业。 “This is a challenge because it exacerbates pressures on the rest of the world,” Ms. Kishore said. “这是一个挑战，因为它加剧了世界其他地区的压力，”基肖尔说。 With tariffs starting to realign trade flows and supply chains, the economic effect is beginning to show. 随着关税开始重新调整贸易流动和供应链，经济效应开始显现。 In Germany, where shipments of Chinese goods last month rose 20 percent from a year earlier, companies have expressed concerns to Mr. Wu, the economist from Commerzbank. Carmakers feel it most acutely. 在德国，中国商品上个月的出货量比去年同期增长了20%，一些公司向德国商业银行的经济学家汤米·吴表达了担忧。汽车制造商对此感受最为强烈。 China has made 45 percent more electric vehicles this year, even as Chinese companies are engaged in a vicious price war at home because of flagging consumer appetite. Exports of electric vehicles have soared 64.6 percent this year, according to the Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 今年，中国的电动汽车产量增加了45%，尽管由于消费者需求下降，中国企业在国内陷入了一场恶性价格战。根据中国汽车工业协会的数据，今年电动汽车的出口量飙升了64.6%。 Countries that have borne the brunt of the jump in Chinese imports have also seen sharp declines in their own manufacturing, leading to job losses and bankruptcies. 首当其冲受到中国进口激增影响的国家，其本国制造业也出现了大幅下滑，导致失业和破产。 长安汽车在重庆生产的电动汽车，它们将出口到泰国。 In Indonesia, garment factories are closing, citing their inability to compete with cheaper clothes from China. Some 250,000 people lost their jobs in the garment industry in 2023 and 2024, said Redma Gita Wirawasta, the chairman of the Indonesian Filament Yarn and Fiber Producers Association. Thai auto parts manufacturers have shut down because of Chinese electric vehicles. Brazilian carmakers have called on the government to initiate an antidumping probe into Chinese cars sold in the country. 在印度尼西亚，服装厂正在关闭，理由是他们无法与来自中国的廉价服装竞争。印尼长丝纱线和纤维生产商协会主席莱德玛·吉塔·维拉瓦斯塔表示，2023年和2024年，服装业约有25万人失业。由于中国的电动汽车，泰国汽车零部件制造商已经关闭。巴西汽车制造商呼吁政府对在巴西销售的中国汽车发起反倾销调查。 For most countries, there are two options. The first is to do nothing and watch manufacturing get hollowed out, said Sonal Varma, the chief economist for Asia, with the exception of Japan, at Nomura, the Japanese bank. 对于大多数国家来说，有两种选择。第一种是什么都不做，眼睁睁地看着制造业被掏空，日本银行野村证券负责日本以外亚洲地区的首席经济学家索纳尔·瓦尔马说。 The other option is to raise tariffs and use other protectionist measures in specific sectors, just as the United States has done with China. This risks the ire of China, which uses trade and investment as leverage in its diplomatic overtures, or the United States. 另一种选择是提高关税，并在特定部门采取其他保护主义措施，就像美国对中国所做的那样。这可能会激怒以贸易和投资作为外交姿态杠杆的中国或美国。 “Supply chains are getting bifurcated along geopolitical lines,” Ms. Varma said. “It has become a lot more difficult for countries to decide: Who do you align with?” “供应链正沿着地缘政治路线分化，”瓦尔马说。“对很多国家来说，这成了一个艰难得多的决定：你打算站哪一边？” 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
PETER BAKER2025年6月17日 The trip down that escalator took less than 30 seconds, but it opened a much longer journey for the man and his country. 搭乘那部自动扶梯下来的用时不足30秒，但由此为他和他的国家开启的一段旅程，却要长久得多。 It has been 10 years now, as of Monday, since Donald J. Trump descended to the lobby of his namesake tower to announce his campaign for president. Ten years of jaw-dropping, woke-busting, scandal-defying, status quo-smashing politics that have transformed America for good or ill in profoundly fundamental ways. 十年前的这个周一，特朗普从以他的名字命名的大厦的自动扶梯下到大堂，宣布竞选总统。在这十年令人瞠目结舌的政治生涯里，他声讨觉醒主义，颠覆常态，视缠身的丑闻如无物，以深刻而根本的方式改变了美国——无论这种改变是好是坏。 In those 10 years, Mr. Trump has come to define his age in a way rarely seen in America, more so than any president of the past century other than Franklin D. Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan, even though he has never had anywhere near their broad public support. Somehow the most unpopular president in the history of polling has translated the backing of a minority of Americans into the most consequential political force of modern times, rewriting all of the rules along the way. 特朗普在十年间以一种这个国家罕见的方式定义了这个时代，影响力超越了上世纪除罗斯福和里根之外任何一位总统，即便他从未获得过他们那样的广泛公众支持。这位在民调历史上最不受欢迎的总统以某种方式将少数美国人的支持转化为现代最具影响力的政治力量，并在此过程中改写了所有政治规则。 In a sense, it does not matter that Mr. Trump has actually occupied the White House for less than half of that 10 years. He has shaped and influenced the national discourse since June 16, 2015, whether in office or not. Every issue, every dispute, every conversation on the national level in that time, it seems, has revolved around him. 从某种意义上说，特朗普实际入主白宫的时间不足这十年的一半，但这并不重要。自2015年6月16日以来，无论是否在位，他都在塑造并影响着国家的话语体系。这十年间，国家层面的每个议题、每场争论、每次对话，似乎都是围绕着他展开的。 Even voter repudiation and criminal conviction did not slow him down or diminish his hold on the national imagination on the way to his comeback last November. The presidency of Joseph R. Biden Jr. turned out to be just an interregnum between Mr. Trump’s stints in power. 选民的背弃和刑事定罪也未能减缓他的脚步、削弱他对国民注意力的吸引，直至去年11月卷土重来。拜登的总统任期结果不过是特朗普两次执政之间的过渡。 自2015年6月16日“特朗普乘扶梯下楼宣布参选以来，他一直是美国政坛的主导人物”，民主党资深策略师道格拉斯·索斯尼克说道。 And power has become his leitmotif. Since his often-stumbling first term, when he was the only president never to have served in public office or the military and by his own admission did not really know what he was doing, Mr. Trump has learned how to wield power to great effect. He has claimed more of it than any of his predecessors ever did — and more of it, judging by the plethora of court rulings against him, than the Constitution entitles him to. 权力已成为他不变的基调。他的首个任期开始时而显得跌跌撞撞，这位从未有过公职或军职经验的总统曾承认他当时不知道自己在做什么。而现在的特朗普已经学会了最大效果地运用权力。他攫取的权力远超历任总统——而且，从大量对其不利的法庭裁决来看，甚至已经超越了宪法赋予总统的权限。 Whether he is on the cusp of dictatorship as his “No Kings” critics argue, he has certainly tried to dictate the course of society across the board, seeking to impose his will not just on Washington but on academia, culture, sports, the legal industry, the news media, Wall Street, Hollywood and private businesses. He wants to personally determine traffic congestion rules in New York and the playbill at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. 无论他是否如“拒绝国王”的批评者所言那样几乎就要实现独裁统治，他确实试图全面掌控社会进程，不仅寻求将自己的意志强加于华盛顿，还强加于学术界、文化界、体育界、法律界、新闻媒体、华尔街、好莱坞和私营企业。从纽约市的交通拥堵规章的制定到肯尼迪表演艺术中心的演出剧目，他都想亲自定夺。 And not through the art of persuasion or even the art of the deal, but through the force of threats and intimidation. He has embarked on a campaign of what he has called “retribution” against his political enemies. American troops have been deployed to the streets of Los Angeles to quell protests. Masked agents sweep through towns and cities across the country seizing immigrants, not just the criminals or the undocumented, but in some cases those with all the right papers who in one way or the other offended the president’s sensibilities. 而且他不是通过说服的艺术，甚至不是交易的艺术，而是通过威胁和恐吓的力量。他已经发起了一场他称之为针对政敌的“报复”运动。美国军队已部署到洛杉矶街头以镇压抗议活动。蒙面特工在全国各地的城镇扫荡，逮捕移民，不仅包括罪犯或无证移民，在某些情况下甚至包括那些持有合法证件但以某种方式冒犯了总统敏感神经的人。 “President Trump has been the dominant figure in American politics since he rode down the escalator to announce his candidacy in 2015,” said Douglas B. Sosnik, a longtime Democratic strategist who served as White House senior adviser to President Bill Clinton. “History will look back and say that we have been living in the age of Trump since then. Biden’s presidency was just a speed bump during this historic period of change in our country’s history.” “自2015年乘扶梯下楼宣布参选以来，特朗普一直是美国政坛的主导人物，”曾在克林顿总统任内担任白宫高级顾问的民主党资深战略家道格拉斯·索斯尼克说道。“历史终将证明，从那时起我们就生活在‘特朗普时代’。而拜登的总统任期，不过是我们国家历史变革进程中的一道减速带。” It is change that his allies consider a long-overdue course correction after decades of liberal hegemony that they say sought to control not just what Americans did but what they thought and were allowed to say out loud. He is in their view the desperately needed antidote to woke excesses, unrestrained immigration and economic dislocation. His Make America Great Again theme appeals to those who feel left behind and browbeaten by a self-dealing ruling class. 在特朗普的盟友看来，这种变革是对数十年来自由主义霸权早就该有的必要修正。他们认为，这种霸权不仅试图控制美国人的行为，更企图钳制美国人的思想与言论自由。他们将特朗普视为对抗觉醒主义泛滥、移民失控与经济失调的良方。“让美国再次伟大”这个主题深深触动了那些感到自己被假公济私的统治阶层抛弃、欺压的群体。 尽管争议缠身、冲突不断，并未赢得广泛公众支持的特朗普仍牢牢掌控着他的选民基本盘。 And he has succeeded to an extent that might not have been expected even a few months ago at shaking up the very foundations of the American system as it has been operating for generations, a system he and his allies argue was badly in need of shaking up. 而且，在动摇已经运作了几个世代的美国体制的根基方面，他取得了可能几个月前都预料不到的成功——他和他的盟友都认为，这个系统亟需彻底革新。 Since reclaiming the presidency five months ago, he has dismantled whole government agencies, overturned the international trading system, gutted federally funded scientific research and made the very word “diversity” so radioactive that even companies and institutions outside his direct control are rushing to change their policies. 重掌白宫五个月来，他裁撤政府机构、颠覆国际贸易体系、削减联邦科研经费，甚至使“多元化”成为一个人人避之不及的词，以至于即使不受他直接控制的公司和机构也都在急于改变他们的政策。 Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker who has written multiple books extolling Mr. Trump, said the president had ushered in “a dramatic deep rebellion against a corrupt, increasingly radical establishment breaking the law to stay in power.” 曾多次著书盛赞特朗普的前众议院议长纽特·金里奇表示，这位总统开创了“一场声势浩大的深刻反抗——针对那个腐败透顶、日益激进的当权集团，他们正不惜违法乱纪以维系权力”。 Larry Kudlow, a national economics adviser to Mr. Trump in his first term, said the president “has transformed American thinking on border security, China trade, working-class wage protection and business prosperity.” Moreover, Mr. Kudlow added, “he has fostered a new conservative culture of patriotism, traditional family values, a revival of faith and American greatness.” 特朗普第一个任期内的经济顾问拉里·库德洛表示，他“改变了美国在边境安全、对华贸易、劳工工资保护和商业繁荣的看法”。此外，库德洛还说，“他培育出一种包括爱国主义、传统家庭价值观、信仰复兴与美国伟大的新保守主义文化。” But while Mr. Trump’s supporters feel freed from the shackles of a suffocating left-wing elite obsessed with identity politics, his critics see a permission structure for racism, sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, Christian nationalism, white supremacy and hatred of transgender people. 然而，当特朗普的支持者感到挣脱了沉迷身份政治、令人窒息的左翼精英的枷锁时，他的批评者却看到他为种族主义、性别歧视、恐同、排外、基督教民族主义、白人至上主义和跨性别者仇恨的泛滥提供了温床。 “He sells the past,” said Christina M. Greer, the author of “How to Build a Democracy” and a political science professor at Fordham University. “He sells a version and vision of America that was only accessible to some.” She said that Mr. Trump “has exposed America — a fragile nation that can be torn apart quite quickly by the promise of cruelty. He is returning the nation to its true origin story, one that many would prefer to forget.” “他在兜售过去，”《如何建设民主》(How to Build a Democracy)一书的作者、福坦莫大学政治学教授克里斯蒂娜·格里尔指出，“他兜售的是只属于特定群体的美国叙事和远景。”她说，特朗普“暴露了美国——一个只需残忍承诺就能轻易撕裂的脆弱国家，他正在让这个国家回归到许多人宁可忘记的原始底色”。 The uncertainty about the Age of Trump is whether it survives Mr. Trump himself. Will Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson or other aspirants to the throne extend this era beyond its progenitor? Mr. Trump has scrambled old voting blocs and ideological scripts, but will he forge an enduring political and governing coalition? 关于特朗普时代的不确定性在于：这个时代能否超越特朗普本人而延续下去？副总统JD·万斯、国务卿马可·鲁比奥、前福克斯新闻主持人塔克·卡尔森，或其他觊觎御座者能否让这个时代延续到其缔造者身后？特朗普已经打乱了传统的选民阵营和意识形态剧本，但他能否建立一个持久的政治和执政联盟？ 3月，施工队正拆除白宫北侧“黑人的命也是命”广场的地面标识。在特朗普时代，进步运动的短暂高潮已经消退。 His appeal often seems as personal as it is political, as much about the force of his identity as the force of his ideas. For a decade, he has been a singularly commanding presence in the life of the nation, invigorating to his admirers and infuriating to his detractors. 他的吸引力既根植于他的政策主张，也来自他的个人魅力，既源于他的理念所具备的力量，也来自他的身份特质。十年来，他一直是这个国家政治生活中独一无二的最具支配力的存在，让崇拜者欢欣鼓舞，让反对者怒不可遏。 The Age of Trump still has more than three and a half years to go, at least by the Constitution, and many tests ahead. 至少根据宪法，特朗普时代还有三年半的时间，前方还将面临许多考验。 Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统，有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
REBECCA F. ELLIOTT2025年6月17日在中国客户拒绝支付更高的关税后，新成立的Group14 Technologies公司放慢了在华盛顿州摩西湖建设电池材料工厂的步伐。 Margaret Albaugh for The New York Times Battery manufacturing began to take off in the United States in recent years after Congress and the Biden administration offered the industry generous incentives. 近年来，国会和拜登政府为电池制造业提供了慷慨的激励措施，电池制造业开始在美国迅速发展。 But that boom now appears to be stalling as the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers try to restrict China’s access to the American market. 但随着特朗普政府和共和党议员试图限制中国进入美国市场，这种繁荣现在似乎正在停滞。 From South Carolina to Washington State, companies are slowing construction or reconsidering big investments in factories for producing rechargeable batteries and the ingredients needed to make them. 从南卡罗来纳到华盛顿州，许多公司正在放慢建设速度，或者重新考虑对生产可充电电池及其所需原料的工厂进行大规模投资。 A big reason is that higher trade barriers between the United States and China are fracturing relationships between suppliers and customers in the two countries. At the same time, Republicans are seeking to block battery makers with ties to China, as well as those that rely on any Chinese technology or materials, from taking advantage of federal tax credits. The industry is also dealing with a softening market for electric vehicles, which Republicans and Mr. Trump have targeted. 一个重要的原因是，美中之间更高的贸易壁垒正在破坏两国供应商和客户之间的关系。与此同时，共和党人正在寻求阻止与中国有关联和依赖中国技术或材料的电池制造商享受联邦税抵免。此外，电动汽车市场疲软也对电池行业构成挑战，电动车是共和党人和特朗普针对的目标。 The China-related restrictions — included in the version of Mr. Trump’s domestic policy bill passed by the House — would be very difficult for many companies to operate under. China is the world’s top battery manufacturer and makes nearly all of certain components. 获得众议院通过的那一版特朗普国内政策法案中包含了与中国有关的限制措施，这将使许多公司难以在此条件下运营。中国是世界上最大的电池生产国，某些部件几乎全部由中国制造。 The Trump policy bill highlights a difficult dilemma. The United States wants to create a homegrown battery industry and greatly reduce its dependence on China — and many Republican lawmakers want to end it altogether. But China is already so dominant in this industry that it will be incredibly hard for the United States to become a meaningful player without working with Chinese companies. 特朗普的政策法案凸显了一个两难境地。美国希望建立一个本土电池产业，大大减少对中国的依赖——许多共和党议员希望完全结束这种依赖。但中国在这个行业已经占据了主导地位，如果不与中国公司合作，美国将难以成为有份量的参与者。 To cultivate a domestic industry, experts say, the United States needs to rely on foreign components and know-how as it builds its own supply chains and expertise, much as China did in the auto industry. 专家认为，为了培育国内产业，美国在建立自己的供应链和专业技术的同时，还需要依赖外国零部件和专长，就像过去中国在汽车行业所做的那样。 Among the plants at risk is a $3 billion battery factory that Ford Motor is building in Marshall, Mich., which is set to start making battery cells next year for the company’s electric cars. Ford is licensing technology from the Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Company, which would quickly make it ineligible for federal subsidies under the House bill. 面临风险的工厂包括福特汽车在密歇根州马歇尔投资30亿美元兴建的电池厂。该工厂将于明年开始为公司的电动汽车生产电池。福特正在从中国电池巨头宁德时代获得技术许可，根据众议院的法案，这将很快使福特失去获得联邦补贴的资格。 A loss of tax credits “will imperil what we do in Marshall,” William Clay Ford Jr., the company’s executive chair, said last month. “We made a certain investment based upon a policy that was in place,” he added. “It’s not fair to change policies after all the expenditure has been made.” 失去税收抵免“将危及我们在马歇尔的工作”，公司执行主席小威廉·克莱·福特上个月说。“我们根据一项当时的政策进行了一定的投资，”他还说。“在做出这么多支出后又改变政策，是不公平的。” Some companies are already pulling back. This month, the battery maker AESC paused construction of a $1.6 billion electric-vehicle battery plant in South Carolina, citing “policy and market uncertainty.” 一些公司已经开始收缩。本月，电池制造商AESC暂停了在南卡罗来纳州投资16亿美元的电动汽车电池厂的建设，理由是“政策和市场的不确定性”。 Batteries made there, which are meant to power BMW’s electric vehicles, also would soon become ineligible for federal subsidies, at least in part because a Chinese company owns a large portion of AESC. Those tax credits amount to roughly $3,375 for the average electric vehicle battery, according to UBS. 这家为宝马的电动汽车生产电池的工厂也将很快失去获得联邦补贴的资格，至少部分原因是一家中国公司拥有AESC的很大一部分股份。根据瑞银的数据，这些税收抵免额平均到每块电动汽车电池上约为3375美元。 Across the country, a start-up, Group14 Technologies, slowed construction of a battery materials factory in Moses Lake, Wash., after its customers in China balked at paying higher tariffs. Instead, the company is focusing on ramping up production in South Korea, said Rick Luebbe, Group14’s chief executive. 在美国另一端的华盛顿州摩西湖，新成立的Group14 Technologies公司放慢了一家电池材料厂的建设。此前，该公司在中国的客户不愿支付更高的关税。Group14首席执行官里克·吕伯表示，该公司正专注于扩大在韩国的产量。 “What caught the attention of our customers, particularly in China, was the really aggressive back-and-forth where the tariffs went up over 100 percent,” Mr. Luebbe said. “At that point, folks said, ‘You know what — maybe we’ll just hold off.’” “引起我们的客户，尤其是中国客户注意的，是那些极具针对性的举动，关税一度提高了100%以上，”吕伯说。“于是人们说，‘要不我们干脆先停一停。’” 现在，Group14预计摩西湖工厂将于明年初开始生产，而不是今年夏天。 Mr. Trump and his aides have said they want companies to manufacture more in the United States. They also want more U.S. mining of critical minerals, many of which form the building blocks of batteries. But they have criticized electric vehicles and wind and solar energy, which drive demand for batteries. 特朗普及其助手表示，他们希望企业在美国制造更多产品。他们还希望美国开采更多的关键矿物，其中许多是电池的基本材料。但他们批评电动汽车、风能和太阳能，而这些都是可以推动电池需求的领域。 Ben Dietderich, an Energy Department spokesman, said the administration was investing in projects that would deliver a return on investment for Americans but did not directly address batteries. 能源部发言人本·迪德里奇表示，政府正在投资一些项目，将为美国人带来投资回报，但并不直接涉及电池。 The administration “is working to develop more secure supply chains for critical energy infrastructure,” Mr. Dietderich said. 迪德里奇说，政府“正在努力为关键的能源基础设施开发更安全的供应链”。 A White House spokesman, Kush Desai, said the administration would “shore up America’s supply of critical minerals” by investigating imports of such materials on natural security grounds, mining for them offshore and repealing regulations. 白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，政府将以自然安全为由调查此类材料的进口，同时在海外开采这些矿物，并废除相关法规，从而“加强美国关键矿产的供应”。 Domestic battery makers have other problems besides the U.S. posture toward China. Chief among them is that electric vehicles have not become as popular in the United States as many companies had expected. 除了美国对中国的态度外，国内电池制造商还有其他问题要面对。其中最主要的是，电动汽车在美国并不像许多公司预期的那样受欢迎。 As a result, many companies delayed, canceled or scaled back projects even before Mr. Trump increased tariffs and Republican lawmakers sought to eliminate tax credits. Companies canceled more than $6 billion in planned U.S. battery factories in the first quarter, according to Rhodium Group, a research firm that tracks investments with M.I.T.’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research. 因此，甚至在特朗普提高关税、共和党议员寻求取消税收抵免之前，许多公司就已经在推迟、取消或缩减项目。与麻省理工学院能源与环境政策研究中心合作跟踪投资情况的研究公司荣鼎集团称，今年第一季度，各企业取消了价值超过60亿美元的美国电池工厂建设计划。 The Republican policy bill would further erode demand for electric cars — and, by extension, the batteries that power them — by scrapping a $7,500 tax credit available to many people who buy or lease them. 共和党的政策法案将进一步削弱对电动汽车的需求，进而削弱为电动汽车提供动力的电池的需求，因为法案取消了许多购买或租赁电动汽车的人可以享受的7500美元税收抵免。 If that tax credit goes away, all planned U.S. battery plants will become unnecessary and more than two-thirds of existing capacity could shut down, according to an analysis by the Princeton-led REPEAT Project. 根据普林斯顿大学领导的REPEAT项目的一项分析，如果这项税收抵免取消，所有计划中的美国电池工厂将显得多余，超过三分之二的现有产能可能会关闭。 Jennifer Granholm, the energy secretary under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., said scrapping clean-energy incentives would cost jobs and undermine U.S. energy security by making the country more dependent on China. 拜登总统任内的能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍姆表示，取消清洁能源激励措施将导致就业岗位流失，并使美国更加依赖中国，从而破坏美国的能源安全。 “For there to be an effective industrial strategy, you have to make America irresistible for investment,” said Ms. Granholm, a former governor of Michigan. “You can’t play a game with no offense.” “要制定一个有效的产业战略，你必须让美国成为投资的不二之选，”曾担任密歇根州州长的格兰霍姆说。“你不可能打一场没有进攻的比赛。” She said lawmakers should differentiate between Chinese equipment that could pose a threat to national security, such as devices that connect to the internet, and more basic materials like screws. 她说，议员们应该区别对待可能对国家安全构成威胁的中国设备（比如连接互联网的设备）和更基本的材料（比如螺丝）。 Others say the United States should welcome foreign investment, including from China, and learn from it. 还有人认为，美国应该欢迎外国投资，包括来自中国的投资，并从中学习。 “Restricting our market is just a first-order bad idea,” said Ann E. Harrison, an economist and former dean of the business school at the University of California, Berkeley. Competition drives innovation and efficiency, without which companies often struggle to survive in the long term, she said. “限制我们的市场是个非常坏的主意，”经济学家、加州大学伯克利分校商学院前院长安·E·哈里森说。她说，竞争推动创新和效率，没有这些，企业往往难以长期生存。 “The Chinese are already so far ahead,” Dr. Harrison said. “At this point, I don’t see us making the leap without fewer constraints.” “中国人已经遥遥领先了，”哈里森说。“在眼前，如果不减少限制，我不认为我们能实现飞跃。” Rebecca F. Elliott为《纽约时报》报道能源问题，重点关注该行业在遏制气候变暖排放的努力中如何发生变化。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
米华健2025年6月17日 Joanna Blémont President Trump’s first term gave us the “China Initiative,” a government program intended to root out Chinese espionage. The result was ethnic profiling of Chinese and Asian American researchers, flimsy cases that were eventually dropped and no prosecutions of scholars for spying or theft of secrets. President Joe Biden wisely eliminated it. 特朗普总统的第一个任期给了我们“中国行动计划”，目的是铲除中国的间谍活动。结果却是对华裔和亚裔美国研究人员的种族形象定性，一些站不住脚的案件最终被撤销，没有学者因间谍活动或窃取机密而受到起诉。拜登总统明智地取消了该计划。 Mr. Trump’s current administration is back at it, however, demonizing Chinese citizens once again with Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s announcement on May 28 that the United States would “aggressively revoke” the visas of Chinese students. While it appears that Mr. Trump’s team may have backed off on that measure for now after trade negotiations last week, the threat lingers and damage may have been done already. 但是，特朗普的现任政府故技重施，再次妖魔化中国公民，国务卿马可·鲁比奥今年5月28日宣布，美国将“大力撤销”中国留学生的签证。虽然上周的贸易谈判后，特朗普团队似乎暂时放弃了这项措施，但威胁依然存在，损害可能已经造成。 Targeting Chinese students, researchers and academics was a horrible idea the first time around and still is. It would harm America academically, economically and strategically. It will leave us more ignorant about our biggest rival and fuel paranoia while doing little to safeguard sensitive information. 上一次把中国学生、研究人员和学者作为打击对象是极其糟糕的主意，如今亦然。这种做法将在学术、经济、战略上给美国造成损害。这样做将让我们对最大竞争对手更加无知，助长偏执情绪，同时对保护敏感信息也起不了多少作用。 We should of course be concerned about China’s wide-ranging espionage efforts. 我们当然应该对中国的大范围间谍活动有所警惕。 Much of this is focused on the U.S. government or corporations. But universities are targets too. Chinese government tactics are known to include pressuring students from China to gather information on American know-how and innovation from their U.S. colleges, coupled with threats against their families in China if they don’t comply. Innocent students like these are China’s victims, too. We should be devising ways to protect their academic freedom and safety while on U.S. soil. Excluding them en masse blames the victim and throws the baby out with the bath water. 这些间谍活动主要针对美国政府或企业。但大学也是间谍活动的目标。中国政府的已知手段包括向中国留学生施压，叫他们从美国同事那里收集有关技术和创新的信息，如果不照做的话，他们在中国的家人就会受到威胁。这些无辜的学生同样也是中国的受害者。我们应该设法保护他们在美国土地上的学术自由和安全。采取一刀切的方式把他们排斥在外无异于责备受害者，好坏不分地一并清除。 Very little of the research that happens on American campuses is classified, anyway. Many universities forbid it under the principle that academic research should be openly available. Some areas of study are more sensitive than others, but U.S. restrictions and screening procedures already block or restrict visas for Chinese researchers in certain fields. A 2020 Trump executive order, for example, limits entry by graduate students with past or present links to Chinese entities that the United States determines are involved with technologies that have potential military use. 事实上，美国校园内开展的研究极少涉及机密。许多大学基于学术研究成果应该公众共享原则，明令禁止涉密研究。虽然有些研究领域确实较为敏感，但美国现有的的限制和筛选程序早已对特定领域的中国研究人员实施签证封锁或限制。例如，2020年的一项特朗普行政命令明确规定，对于美国认定涉及潜在军事用途技术的中国实体，无论是过去还是现在与它们存在关联的研究生，其入境将受到严格限制。 Mr. Rubio’s announcement added worryingly vague new criteria to these already robust standards. 令人担忧的是，鲁比奥的宣布在这些本来就很严格的标准之上增加了新的模糊标准。 He singled out students “with connections to the Chinese Communist Party,” which is almost meaningless for a country where the party runs everything. Just as every American is connected to the U.S. government in some way — getting a driver’s license, paying taxes, going to public schools — dealing with the Communist Party is a fact of life for Chinese citizens, not an ideological commitment. 他专门提到“与中国共产党有关系”的学生，对一个中共掌管所有事情的国家来说，这几乎毫无意义。正如每个美国人都以某种方式与美国政府产生联系，如获得驾照、纳税、在公立学校读书，与共产党打交道是中国公民现实生活的一部分，而非意识形态立场的体现。 Mr. Rubio also mentioned students “studying in critical fields.” Does that mean only sensitive technologies, or would the Trump administration’s typically maximalist approach sweep in the social sciences, international relations, even business and finance? 鲁比奥还提及“在关键领域学习”的学生。这是仅指敏感技术领域呢，还是像特朗普政府一贯的极端做法那样，把社会科学、国际关系乃至商业和金融包括进来？ These overly broad and ultimately unnecessary criteria look suspiciously like Mr. Trump’s team may in fact be laying the groundwork to fulfill yet another objective of Project 2025, the right-wing manifesto that has guided Mr. Trump’s second term. The president’s immigration crackdown, elimination of diversity programs, rollback of climate protection measures and other major policy moves are all key items on Project 2025’s wish list, which also calls for the United States to “significantly reduce or eliminate” visas for Chinese students and researchers. 这些过于宽泛且最终没有必要的标准令人不禁怀疑，特朗普团队也许正在为实现“2025计划”的又一个目标奠定基础，这份右翼宣言已成为特朗普第二的任期的施政纲领。特朗普打击移民、取消多元化项目、取消保护气候的措施，以及其他重大政策举措，都是“2025计划”希望一览表上的主要事项，该计划也要求美国“大幅减少或取消”发给中国留学生和研究人员的签证。 Doing so would hurt America in several ways. 这样做会在多个方面伤害美国。 Take trade. Mr. Trump is obsessed with America’s trade deficit with China. But the more than 277,000 Chinese studying legally in the United States contributed more than $14 billion to the economy in 2023, on par with the value of some of American’s top exports to China. 以贸易为例。特朗普为美中贸易逆差耿耿于怀。但2023年，在美国合法学习的27.7万多名中国学生为美国经济贡献了140多亿美元，与一些美国对华最大出口产品的价值相当。 The United States also has benefited from a long-term “brain gain” of Chinese talent. More than 55,000 Chinese nationals graduated with STEM Ph.D.s from U.S. universities from 2001 to 2015, 90 percent of whom stayed in the United States after graduation. Chinese student enrollment in the United States is falling sharply, however, from about 370,000 in 2019, in the wake of the pandemic and deteriorating U.S.-China relations. Restricting Chinese student visas would further erode this American technological advantage. 美国也从来自中国的长期“人才流入”中受益。2001年至2015年，超过5.5万名中国留学生从美国大学获得STEM博士学位，其中90%的人在毕业后留在了美国。然而，由于新冠疫情和中美关系恶化，中国在美留学生人数从2019年的37万人大幅下降。限制中国学生签证将进一步削弱美国的这种技术优势。 I have firsthand experience with paranoid academic barriers that end up hurting the country that erects them. 对此我深有体会，偏执的学术壁垒最终会伤害到设置壁垒的国家。 I contributed to a 2004 book on China’s Uyghurs, one of the native peoples of Xinjiang. Uyghurs are a highly sensitive topic for the Communist Party, which seeks to prevent foreign scholars from writing about them because of a history of Uyghur discontent with Chinese rule. China denounced the book as an attempt to incite Uyghur separatism and subsequently refused to grant visas to me and several other American professors who were co-authors. 2004年，我曾经参与撰写了一本关于中国维吾尔人的书，维吾尔人是新疆的原住民群体之一。维吾尔人对共产党来说是一个高度敏感的话题，由于他们历史上对中国统治的不满，共产党试图阻止外国学者展开相关研究。中国谴责这本书企图煽动维吾尔分裂主义，随后拒绝向我和其他几位撰写该书的美国教授发放签证。 This backfired for China. We continued to do research, publish books and teach, but we couldn’t visit China and have the frank in-person exchanges we once had with Chinese scholars in Beijing who advised the government. The soured academic atmosphere also meant Chinese experts were no longer welcomed to overseas conferences and other academic exchanges in Uyghur and Xinjiang studies. China lost an important channel through which its scholars accessed new research and kept tabs on how its Xinjiang policies played overseas. 这一做法对中国来说适得其反。我们继续做研究，出版著作和教学，但我们不能访问中国，不能像以前那样，与在北京为政府出谋献策的中国学者进行坦率的面对面交流。恶劣的学术氛围也意味着中国专家不再受邀参加海外维吾尔和新疆研究领域的会议和其他学术交流。中国失去了一个重要的渠道，通过这个渠道，中国学者本可以接触最新研究成果，并掌握海外对其新疆政策的反应。 When it emerged in 2018 that China had interned more than a million Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities in re-education centers, China was unprepared for the global outrage that followed. Chinese officials in Washington scoffed when I told them early on that the world would see these as concentration camps and the country’s treatment of Uyghurs as crimes against humanity and genocide. China fumbled its response, at first issuing flat denials that were transparently false — satellite images of the re-education facilities were available — and repeatedly changing its story. China’s international reputation was severely tarnished, and the United States imposed sanctions. 2018年，当中国在再教育中心拘禁了100多万维吾尔人和其他穆斯林少数民族的消息传出时，中国对随之而来的全球愤怒毫无准备。我很早就告诉在华盛顿的中国官员，世界将把这些拘禁营视为集中营，将把中国对待维吾尔人的方式视为反人类罪和种族灭绝，当时他们嗤之以鼻。中国的回应很笨拙，一开始断然否认，这显然站不住脚——再教育设施的卫星图像是明摆着的——然后一再改变说法。结果，中国的国际声誉受到了严重损害，美国也对其实施了制裁。 By constricting academic exchange, China impaired its ability to anticipate the reaction of the United States and the world. If the United States does the same to Chinese scholars, it risks falling into the same trap. 通过限制学术交流，中国削弱了预测美国和世界反应的能力。如果美国对中国学者采取同样的做法，恐将重蹈覆辙。 From a hard-nosed U.S. security standpoint, we should be learning all that we can about China. That means maintaining connections, not severing them. Yet Mr. Trump seems bent on blinding us. In his first term he abolished the Fulbright academic exchange program with China, which had sent thousands of American and Chinese students between the two countries for decades. His new administration has gutted Radio Free Asia — whose reporting on Xinjiang, Tibet and China has long been relied upon by Congress and the White House — and canceled funding for efforts to monitor Chinese human rights abuses. 从务实的美国国家安全立场来看，我们应该尽可能地了解中国。这意味着保持联系，而不是切断联系。然而，特朗普似乎执意要让我们自我蒙蔽。在他的第一个任期内，他废除了与中国的富布赖特学术交流项目，该项目几十年来促成了成千上万的两国学生互访。他的新一届政府削弱了自由亚洲电台——国会和白宫长期倚仗该电台对新疆、西藏和中国的报道——并取消了对监督中国侵犯人权行为的资助。 Revoking Chinese student visas would further cut America off from its biggest rival, sacrificing security for spite, knowledge for paranoia and differing little from the Chinese Communist Party’s isolationism. And it destroys the empathy that America should be showing toward fellow human beings in a country that accounts for one-sixth of humanity. 撤销中国留学生签证将进一步切断美国与最大竞争对手的联系，这种为报复对手而牺牲安全、因偏执而放弃追求知识的做法与中国共产党的孤立主义几乎没有区别。这也摧毁了美国本应展现的人道关怀——面对一个占全球六分之一人口的国家中的普通人，我们理应怀有同理心。 A self-confident America should not fear people from around the world, even rival countries, coming to access the knowledge that all of humankind needs to address our mounting global problems together. Learning is not spying. 一个自信的美国不应该害怕来自世界各地的人们，哪怕是来自竞争对手国家的人前来获取全人类需要的知识，以共同应对日益严重的全球性问题。学习不是间谍活动。 米华健(James A. Millward)是乔治城大学(Georgetown)历史学教授。著有《欧亚十字路口：新疆历史》(Eurasian Crossroads: A History of Xinjiang)和《丝绸之路简介》(The Silk Road: A Very Short Introduction)。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
PATRICK KINGSLEY2025年6月17日周日上午，以色列雷霍沃特市遭伊朗导弹袭击。 Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times When Israel and Iran clashed last year, they fought in short and contained bursts that usually ended within hours, and both sides looked for off-ramps that allowed tensions to ebb. 去年以色列与伊朗发生冲突时，它们是以短促、克制的方式交战，通常在数小时内停火，而且双方都在寻找让紧张局势缓和下来的途径。 Since Israel started a new round of fighting on Friday, the two countries have said they will continue for as long as necessary, broadening the scope of their attacks and leading to much higher casualty counts in both countries. This time, the conflict appears set to last for at least a week, with both Israel and Iran ignoring routes toward de-confliction. 自从以色列上周五开始新一轮战斗以来，两国都已表示，只要有必要，就将继续战斗下去，双方扩大了打击范围，并导致伤亡人数大幅上升。这次冲突看来将至少持续一周，而且双方都对化解冲突的途径置若罔闻。 Israel seems motivated to continue until the destruction of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, either by force or renewed negotiations. Yet Iran has shown no sign of voluntarily ending enrichment, a process crucial to building a nuclear bomb, and Israel has no known ability to destroy a pivotal enrichment site that is buried deep underground. 以色列继续战斗似乎意在通过武力或重启谈判彻底摧毁伊朗的铀浓缩项目。但伊朗并未表现出自愿停止铀浓缩（制造原子弹的一个关键工序）的迹象，而以色列目前已知的军事能力尚无法摧毁一个深藏地下的关键铀浓缩设施。 “We’re weeks rather than days away from this ending,” said Daniel B. Shapiro, who oversaw Middle Eastern affairs at the Pentagon until January. “这场冲突的结束需要数周而不是数天时间，”曾在五角大楼负责中东事务直至今年1月卸任的丹尼尔·夏皮罗表示。 “Israel will keep going until, one way or another, Iran no longer retains an enrichment capability,” added Mr. Shapiro, now a fellow at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based research group. “It’s now clear that if Israel leaves this unaddressed, its campaign will have failed.” “以色列将继续行动，不管用什么方法，直到让伊朗不再拥有铀浓缩能力为止，”夏皮罗补充道，他现在是华盛顿研究机构大西洋理事会的研究员。“现已清楚的是，如果以色列不解决这个问题，它的军事行动将是失败的。” While Israel has easily struck Iran’s main enrichment site at Natanz, central Iran, it lacks the American-made “bunker-buster” bombs needed to destroy a smaller subterranean site dug deep into a mountain near Fordo, northern Iran. Israeli officials hope that their strikes on other targets — including Iran’s top military commanders, nuclear scientists and its energy industry — will inflict enough pain to encourage Iran to willingly end operations at Fordo. 虽然以色列轻而易举地打击了位于伊朗中部纳坦兹的主要铀浓缩设施，但它缺乏摧毁伊朗北部福尔多附近深山中的一个小型地下设施的武器：美国制造的“碉堡克星”炸弹。以色列官员希望，他们打击其他目标——包括伊朗最高军事指挥官、核科学家及能源产业——的行动能给伊朗带来足够的痛苦，促使它自愿结束福尔多设施的运行。 For now, Iran seems far from such a capitulation, even if Israel has shown increasing dominance in Iranian airspace, according to Sanam Vakil, who leads analysis of the Middle East at Chatham House, a London-based research group. Though Israel hopes to prompt its collapse, the Iranian government remains in full control of Iran and still has substantial stocks of ballistic missiles, even if Israel has limited its ability to fire some of them. 就目前而言，伊朗远未表现出屈服的迹象，尽管以色列在伊朗领空的主导地位日益明显，这是伦敦皇家国际事务研究所的中东问题研究主管萨纳姆·瓦基尔的看法。虽然以色列希望促成伊朗政权的崩溃，但伊朗政府仍牢牢掌控着国内局势，并且仍拥有大量的弹道导弹库存，即使以色列已削弱了其部分发射能力。 “I don’t see any surrender coming from Tehran right now — there are no white flags being waved,” said Dr. Vakil. “It’s very hard to see Iran walking back its enrichment rights while Iran’s program still looks operational and Iran is intact as a state,” she added. “Their goal is to survive, to inflict damage and show their resilience.” “目前看不到德黑兰有任何投降的迹象，没有人在摇白旗，”瓦基尔说。“在伊朗的核项目看来仍在运行、国家体系完好的情况下，很难看出伊朗会放弃铀浓缩的权利，”她补充道。“他们的目标是生存下去，（让以色利）遭受破坏，展示他们的韧劲。” Much depends on how President Trump reacts. Unlike Israel, the United States has the munitions and the aircraft to destroy Fordo. Analysts like Mr. Shapiro say that Mr. Trump could consider such an approach if Iran chooses to accelerate its efforts to build a nuclear bomb instead of reaching a compromise. 局势很大程度上取决于美国总统特朗普如何反应。与以色列不同，美国已拥有摧毁福尔多核设施所需的炸弹和飞机。夏皮罗等分析人士指出，如果伊朗选择加速研制核弹，而不是达成妥协的话，特朗普可能会考虑采取行动。 “That will create a critical decision point for Trump, about whether the United States should intervene,” Mr. Shapiro said. “这将在美国是否应该进行干预的问题上，给特朗普制造一个关键的决策点，”夏皮罗说。 It may also now be easier for Mr. Trump to intervene without serious security consequences, given that Israel’s attacks have already degraded Iran’s defensive abilities. 考虑到以色列的打击已削弱了伊朗的防御能力，对特朗普来说，现在也许更容易在不造成严重安全后果的情况下进行干预。 Others say that Mr. Trump is likelier to avoid direct confrontation with Iran unless the Iranian military shifts its attacks from Israel to U.S. interests and personnel in the Middle East, narrowing Mr. Trump’s room for maneuver. Since Friday, Iran has avoided providing such a pretext for U.S. involvement, and has also avoided attacks on the U.S.’s other allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 不过也有人认为，除非伊朗军方将攻击目标从以色列转向美国在中东的利益和人员，从而压缩特朗普的回旋余地，否则他更可能会避免与伊朗的直接对抗。自上周五以来，伊朗一直避免为美国的介入提供此类借口，并已避免打击美国在该地区的其他盟友，包括沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋。 The president’s statements since Friday indicate that his current preference is to use Israel’s military gains as leverage for renewed talks with Tehran. 特朗普自上周五以来的表态显示，他目前倾向于把以色列的军事成果用作与德黑兰重启核谈判的筹码。 德黑兰的一块广告牌上承诺对以色列的打击进行报复。 For months, Mr. Trump has overseen negotiations with Iran, hoping that Tehran would agree to end its enrichment program without Israel’s military intervention. 数月来，特朗普一直在主导与伊朗的谈判进程，希望伊朗政府在无需以色列军事干预的情况下同意结束本国的铀浓缩项目。 Those talks stumbled after Iran refused to back down. In comments over the weekend, Mr. Trump suggested that Iran, chastened by Israel’s attacks, might finally make compromises that its had not previously considered. As a result, some analysts say that Mr. Trump could press Israel to end its attacks — when and if he judges that Iran has become more malleable. 伊朗拒绝让步后，这些谈判陷入了僵局。特朗普在周末发表的言论中暗示，在以色列的军事打击威慑下，伊朗也许最终会做出其此前不予考虑的妥协。因此，一些分析人士称，如果特朗普判定伊朗的态度已趋软化，他可能会向以色列施压，让其停止军事打击。 “This will end when Trump decides to end it, which will probably happen when he thinks Iran is ready to compromise,” said Yoel Guzansky, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “这场冲突的终结将取决于特朗普的决断，而这很可能在他认为伊朗做好了妥协的准备后发生，”特拉维夫的国家安全研究所伊朗问题专家约尔·古赞斯基说。 Such a U-turn has historical precedent, even if it feels unlikely for now, experts said. The Iranian leadership made a similarly unexpected compromise at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, according to Meir Javedanfar, who teaches Iranian studies at Reichman University in Israel. After rejecting numerous offers to end the war, Ayatollah Khomeini eventually agreed to a deal after the costs of the war became too great, Dr. Javedanfar said. 专家表示，这种180度的大转弯在历史上不是没有先例，尽管目前看来不太可能。据以色列赖希曼大学讲授伊朗研究课程的教授梅尔·贾维丹法尔说，伊朗领导人曾在20世纪80年代两伊战争结束时做出过类似地出人意料的妥协。当时伊朗曾多次拒绝了结束战争的提议，但在战争的代价变得难以承受后，阿亚图拉·霍梅尼最终同意了停火协议，贾维丹法尔说。 “Khomeini made a 180-degree change,” he said. “This is again what Israel is hoping for.” “霍梅尼做了个180度的大转变，”他说。“这也正是以色列现在所希望的。” But history also suggests this may take time. The deal that ended the Iran-Iraq war took eight years to reach. 但历史也表明，这可能需要时间。结束两伊战争的协议用了八年时间才达成。 Gabby Sobelman自以色列雷霍沃特、Myra Noveck自耶路撒冷、Johnatan Reiss自特拉维夫对本文有报道贡献。 Patrick Kingsley是时报耶路撒冷分社社长，领导时报对以色列、加沙和西岸的报道。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
王月眉2025年6月16日TikTok上的内容创作者分享了他们参观中国泡泡玛特商店的经历。 @baeveee, @ciayanaror, @sosueee_, @tiffanyhuangg, via TikTok In China’s campaign to win over hearts and minds worldwide, its latest weapon is a fanged, bunny-eared, arguably quite ugly plushie. 在这场赢得全球人的心的行动中，中国的最新武器是一个长着獠牙和兔子耳朵、可以说相当丑陋的毛绒玩具。 The grinning fuzzy toy, called Labubu, is made by a Chinese company and has become a global craze. It has in recent months been toted by celebrities including Rihanna and David Beckham; set off brawls among competing shoppers in England; and prompted overnight stakeouts in Los Angeles. It has even shaped the travel itineraries of some devotees, who have planned trips to China around hopes of buying one there. Resale prices for the roughly $30 figurine have run into the hundreds of dollars. 这种露齿而笑的毛绒玩具名叫Labubu，由一家中国公司制造，已经在全球范围内掀起热潮。最近几个月，蕾哈娜和大卫·贝克汉姆等名人都把它带在身边；在英格兰，它引发购物者之间的争抢打斗；在洛杉矶，有人通宵排队等待。它甚至影响了一些拥趸的旅行行程，他们计划去中国旅行，希望在那里购买一个。大约30美元的小玩偶的转售价格已经达到了数百美元。 “I flew all the way to China just to visit the BIGGEST POP MART STORE IN THE WORLD,” read the caption on a TikTok video by one vlogger from the Philippines, Lianna Patricia Guillermo, referring to the company that makes Labubu. (Ms. Guillermo clarified in an interview that she had visited the store during a long layover in Shanghai.) 菲律宾视频博主莉安娜·帕特里夏·吉列尔莫在TikTok视频文案中写道：“我大老远飞到中国，就是为了参观世界上最大的泡泡玛特店。”泡泡玛特是生产Labubu的公司。（吉列尔莫在接受采访时澄清说，她是在一次长时间逗留上海期间参观那家店的。） The enthusiasm over Labubu may pass like any other viral trend. But it could also be another sign that China, which has struggled to build cultural cachet overseas amid longstanding concerns about its authoritarian politics, is starting to claim some victories. 对Labubu的热情可能会像其他热潮一样过去。但长期以来，由于外界对其威权政治的担忧，中国一直在努力在海外建立文化声望，Labubu的走红也可能是中国开始取得一些胜利的迹象。 Chinese state media outlets have sought to frame it that way. “The furry, nine-toothed elf created by Chinese toymaker Pop Mart has become a benchmark for China’s pop culture making inroads overseas,” said an article in People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece. 中国官方媒体一直试图用这种基调来描述它。中共喉舌《人民日报》的一篇文章称：“中国玩具制造商泡泡玛特创造的毛茸茸的九颗牙小怪兽已经成为中国流行文化进军海外的基准。” Other Chinese products to find global followings include video games such as Black Myth: Wukong and affordable, well-made electric cars by BYD and other brands. DeepSeek, the Chinese AI model, has been adopted by tech companies overseas, including in the United States and Europe. Foreign travel bloggers have posted videos of themselves gushing about Shanghai’s skyline and Chengdu’s pandas. 其他在全球受到追捧的中国产品包括《黑神话：悟空》等视频游戏，以及比亚迪等品牌生产的物美价廉的电动汽车。中国的人工智能模型DeepSeek已被包括美国和欧洲在内的海外科技公司采用。国外旅游博主纷纷发布视频，对上海的天际线和成都的熊猫赞不绝口。 More niche offerings, like soapy Chinese period dramas, are finding audiences too. Patti Smith, the punk rock legend, has apparently left admiring comments on the Instagram account of a relatively unknown actor in one that recently debuted on Netflix. 中国古装肥皂剧等更小众的产品也得到了观众。朋克摇滚传奇人物帕蒂·史密斯在一位相对不知名的演员的Instagram账号下留言称赞他，后者出现在Netflix前不久首播的一部古装剧集中。 Polls also show changes in public opinion. An analysis published in May by Morning Consult showed that for the first time China’s global standing surpassed that of the United States, including among American allies. Even in the United States, where views of China remain overwhelmingly negative, the share of Americans with an unfavorable opinion of China fell for the first time in five years in March, according to Pew. Younger Americans in particular are less hostile to China. 民意调查也显示了公众意见的变化。晨间咨询公司今年5月发表的一份分析报告显示，中国的全球地位首次超过了美国，包括在美国盟友中的地位。皮尤研究中心的数据显示，即便是在对中国持压倒性负面看法的美国，3月份对中国持负面看法的美国人比例也出现了五年来的首次下降。尤其是年轻美国人对中国的敌意更少。 The shift may be in large part because global views of the United States have taken such a nosedive since President Trump’s second term began. Morning Consult said that American favorability had fallen far faster than enthusiasm for China had risen in that period. 这种转变可能在很大程度上是因为自特朗普总统第二任期开始以来全球对美国的看法急剧下降。晨间咨询公司表示，在此期间，美国好感度的下降速度远远快于对中国好感度的上升速度。 Given the “alarmingly isolationist turn of the U.S.,” said Ying Zhu, a professor at Hong Kong Baptist University who studies American and Chinese soft power, China looked “stable and steady in comparison.” 香港浸会大学研究美国和中国软实力的教授朱影说，鉴于“美国惊人的孤立主义转向”，中国“相比之下坚实稳定”。 But China has also been trying to build its soft power in its own right, alongside its economic and military might. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has said that the country should work to “reshape” the international conversation in China’s favor. Broader appeal in pop culture, or as a travel destination, would bolster its claim to being an alternative to the United States for global leadership. 但是，中国也一直在经济和军事实力之外，努力打造自己的软实力。中国领导人习近平曾表示，中国应努力“重构”有利于中国的国际对话。在流行文化中更广泛的吸引力，或者作为一个旅游目的地，将支持它成为美国之外全球领导者的替代选择。 Within China, that effort has been successful. Many Chinese now turn to homegrown brands and stars instead of the Western ones they once idolized. Labubu dolls have sold out so quickly that some Chinese have taken to smuggling in dolls bought overseas to resell them. On Tuesday, a human-size Labubu sculpture sold at an auction in Beijing for $150,000. 在中国，这种努力是成功的。许多中国人现在转向本土品牌和明星，而不是他们曾经崇拜的西方品牌和明星。Labubu很快售罄，以至于一些中国人开始走私从海外购买的娃娃并转手出售。周二，一个真人大小的Labubu雕塑在北京的一场拍卖会上以108万元的价格售出。 本月，顾客在上海的泡泡玛特商店挑选Labubu。 There are signs some overseas fans of Labubu are engaging more with other Chinese products. On Reddit, users swap tips for ordering dolls or outfits on AliExpress and other Chinese e-commerce platforms. They express concern about American tariffs on Chinese imports. 有迹象表明，一些海外的Labubu粉丝正在更多地接触其他中国产品。在Reddit上，用户们交换了在全球速卖通和其他中国电子商务平台上订购玩偶或服装的技巧。他们对美国对中国进口商品征收关税表示担忧。 After Sue Aw, 30, visited Shanghai last year from Australia in part to find Labubu dolls (they were sold out), she now wants to visit China again later this year. She wanted to see other cities, and to buy more of Chinese clothing brands she had discovered. 去年，30岁的苏·奥从澳大利亚来到上海，部分原因是为了寻找Labubu娃娃（它们已经售罄），如今，她想在今年晚些时候再次前往中国。她想看看其他城市，购买更多她发现的中国服装品牌。 Her friends in Australia have also “definitely seen China in a more positive light after the level of craze” around Labubu, she said. 她说，她在澳大利亚的朋友们也是这样，“在(Labubu)热潮后，肯定是对中国有了更正面的看法”。 But for other Labubu lovers, the doll’s Chinese origins seem unimportant, or even pass unnoticed. (In fact, while Pop Mart is a Chinese company, the character itself was designed by a Hong Kong-born artist raised in the Netherlands.) In Western markets, Pop Mart has collaborated with Disney and Marvel. 但对其他喜爱Labubu的人来说，这个玩偶的中国血统似乎并不重要，甚至被忽视了。（事实上，虽然泡泡玛特是一家中国公司，但这个角色本身是由一位在荷兰长大的香港艺术家设计的。）在西方市场，泡泡玛特与迪士尼和漫威合作。 Some Chinese social media users have joked that the doll is so popular in the United States — where wraparound lines have developed at malls — because people there don’t know it is Chinese. For many Americans, the appeal of Labubu seems to be just as much, or perhaps more, about its ingenious marketing: its scarcity, its frequent use of “blind box” packaging, in which buyers don’t know which of several elves they will receive. 一些中国社交媒体用户开玩笑说，这个玩偶在美国如此受欢迎——人们在商场里排起长龙——是因为那里的人不知道它是中国的。对许多美国人来说，同Labubu本身的魅力同样重要、甚至更重要的，似乎是它巧妙的营销方式：它的稀缺性，它经常使用“盲盒”包装——买家不知道他们收到的是几个精灵中的哪一个。 Even so, the growing presence of Chinese companies worldwide is itself a form of soft power, said Huang Rihan, a professor at Huaqiao University in Fujian Province who has studied China’s messaging overseas. He pointed to how companies like Pop Mart, Tencent or Alibaba have hired employees of different nationalities, in offices all around the world. 即便如此，福建省华侨大学研究中国海外信息的教授黄日涵说，中国公司在世界范围内日益增长的存在本身就是一种软实力。他指出，泡泡玛特、腾讯或阿里巴巴等公司在世界各地的办公室雇佣了不同国籍的员工。 Professor Huang said that China’s biggest soft-power successes had come from young Chinese entrepreneurs having the freedom to engage globally and experiment. Pop Mart’s chief executive, Wang Ning, is just 33, and has said that he wants the brand to work with artists from around the world. 黄日涵说，中国最大的软实力成功来自于年轻的中国企业家拥有参与全球和试验的自由。泡泡玛特的首席执行官王宁只有33岁，他说他希望该品牌能与世界各地的艺术家合作。 本月，中国浙江省杭州市的一家泡泡玛特商店。 “In the realm of culture, I think the government should loosen its grip,” Professor Huang said. “我是认为，政府在文化产品或领域的创造上，更多的是应该给他么一些松绑，”黄日涵说。 Indeed, a bigger challenge for China’s soft power efforts may be how eager the Chinese authorities are to claim them. Repeated official calls to boost soft power suggest a belief that trendiness can be manufactured if the government just tries hard enough. 的确，中国软实力工作面临的一个更大的挑战可能是，中国当局是多么迫切地想要得到这样的实力。官方一再呼吁提升软实力，这表明他们相信，只要政府足够努力，潮流是可以制造出来的。 Sometimes that eagerness can be merely cringe-worthy (a recent People’s Daily article called “What Makes China ‘Cool’” declared: “‘Cool’ is a term rooted in youth culture, typically associated with what is fashionable”) or propagandistic (China’s cool, another article said, came from “building a community with a shared future for mankind” — a slogan of Mr. Xi). 有时，这种急切的态度可能只会令人生厌（《人民日报》最近一篇名为《何以“酷中国”》的文章宣称：“‘酷’，年轻人爱用，表达先锋、前卫、新潮的意思”）；或者带有宣传色彩（另一篇文章称，中国的“酷”来自于“构建人类命运共同体”——这是习近平的口号）。 Government involvement, whether real or perceived, can also be more directly off-putting. When a Chinese company promoted Wukong, the blockbuster video game, last year to overseas streamers, it instructed them to avoid topics such as “feminist propaganda” or the coronavirus pandemic — terms that the government censors heavily. 政府的参与，无论是真实存在还是给人留下了这种印象，也可能更直接地引起反感。去年，一家中国公司在向海外流媒体推广大热门视频游戏《黑神话：悟空》时，指示他们避开“女权主义宣传”或新冠病毒流行等话题——这些都是被政府严格审查的词汇。 Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。 王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者，常驻北京，撰写关于中国的崛起及雄心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JAY ROOT, 傅才德, BIANCA PALLARO2025年6月16日 Andrew M. Cuomo’s mayoral campaign hired an adviser who was once the chairman of a state-owned oil company in China, a position typically held by people with close ties to the Chinese government. 安德鲁·科莫的市长竞选团队聘请的一位顾问曾是中国一家国有石油公司的董事长，这个职位通常由与中国政府关系密切的人担任。 州众议员威廉·科尔顿的幕僚长、安德鲁·科莫的顾问贺立宁曾在中国一家国有企业工作。 via YouTube In March, Mr. Cuomo announced that the adviser, Larry He, had become the campaign’s Asian outreach director to help garner support among New York City’s 600,000 Chinese Americans and other Asian communities ahead of this month’s Democratic primary. 今年3月，科莫宣布，顾问拉里·贺(Larry He)成为竞选团队的亚裔外联主管，以帮助科莫在本月的民主党初选之前获得纽约市60万华裔美国人和其他亚裔社区的支持。 Mr. He worked at the China-owned Guangxi Beibu Gulf Investment Coastal Petrochemical Co. and its parent company a decade ago, according to review of Chinese company documents and several online biographies. (His Chinese name is He Lining.) 根据对中国公司文件和几份网上简历的查阅，拉里·贺十年前曾在中国拥有的广西北部湾投资沿海石化有限责任公司及其母公司工作。（他的中文名字叫贺立宁。） Mr. He was chairman of the oil firm and also held other titles at the parent company, including director of asset management and head of investment promotion, before entering the New York political scene. He is now the chief of staff to State Assemblyman William Colton, who represents parts of Brooklyn. 在进入纽约政界之前，贺立宁曾担任这家石油公司的董事长，并在母公司任有其他职务，包括资产管理总监和投资推广主管。他现在是代表布鲁克林部分地区的州议员威廉·科尔顿的幕僚长。 In an interview, Mr. He acknowledged that his employment history in China could raise questions about his connections to the Chinese government and said he had omitted the experiences from a recent résumé to avoid causing concern. 在一次采访中，贺立宁承认他在中国的工作经历可能会让人质疑他与中国政府的关系，并说他在最近的简历中略去了这些经历，以避免引起关注。 Mr. He denied any past or current links to the Chinese Communist Party, saying he was never a member and that he had become a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2024 — undergoing a process that involved renouncing his Chinese citizenship. 贺立宁否认过去或现在与中国共产党有任何联系，说自己从来都不是党员，他在2024年入籍美国，这一过程包括放弃他的中国国籍。 “I don’t act under any kind of influence of the Chinese government or any entities,” Mr. He said. “我的行为不受中国政府或任何实体的任何影响，”贺立宁说。 Still, because his senior post brought him into contact with government and Communist Party officials, experts in Chinese government and politics said he met the criteria of someone whom China might try to use to influence politics in the United States. 不过，由于他的高级职位使他接触到政府和共产党官员，中国政府和政治专家表示，他符合中国可能试图用来影响美国政治的人选标准。 “Campaign staff with strong ties to top state-owned enterprises in China would be a prime target for pressure, influence or co-option,” said Alex Joske, an analyst who has testified before a Congressional commission on Chinese influence operations. 分析师亚历克斯·乔斯克说，“与中国顶级国有企业关系密切的竞选工作人员将成为施压、影响或拉拢的主要目标。”乔斯克曾在国会一个委员会就中国的影响力行动作证。 After The New York Times sought comment from Mr. He for this article, he resigned from Mr. Cuomo’s campaign, saying he planned to return to his full-time position with Mr. Colton’s office “effective immediately.” 在《纽约时报》就本文征求贺立宁置评后，他辞去了科莫竞选团队的职务，称他计划“立即”回到科尔顿办公室，担任全职岗位。 “Let’s be crystal clear, it is not a crime to be born in China, it is not a crime to be an immigrant in this nation, I am a proud U.S. citizen and the premise of this story is xenophobic, false, defamatory and harmful to me and my family,” the statement said, but added: “I do not want to be a distraction to this campaign.” “让我们明确一点，在中国出生不是犯罪，在这个国家成为移民也不是犯罪，我是一名自豪的美国公民，这个报道是以仇外、虚假、诽谤为前提的，对我和我的家人有害，”他表示，此外还称“我不想成为这场竞选活动的干扰因素”。 The Chinese government has made repeated efforts to target dissidents and infiltrate New York politics in recent years, according to federal prosecutors. An aide hired by Mr. Cuomo when he was governor in 2012 was charged last year with acting as an unregistered agent of China. She has pleaded not guilty. 据联邦检察官称，中国政府近年来一再努力打击异见人士，并对纽约政界进行渗透。去年，科莫在2012年担任州长时雇佣的一名助手被控充当未注册的中国代理人。她拒不认罪。 And Mayor Eric Adams, who is running for re-election, employed his own aide whose homes were raided last year by F.B.I. agents looking for evidence of Chinese influence. She has not been charged and has denied any wrongdoing. 正在竞选连任的市长埃里克·亚当斯雇佣的助手在去年曾遭联邦调查局搜查住所，以寻找中国影响的证据。她没有受到指控，并否认有任何不当行为。 Mr. He said that he did not tell anyone on Mr. Cuomo’s campaign, which has paid him $15,000 for organizing community events, about his previous work in China. 贺立宁说，他没有告诉科莫竞选团队的任何人他之前在中国的工作。科莫曾向他支付1.5万美元，用于组织社区活动。 A spokesman for Mr. Cuomo’s campaign said in a statement that it had accepted Mr. He’s resignation on Friday “with regret.” 科莫竞选团队的一名发言人在声明中表示，周五，他们“遗憾地”接受了贺立宁的辞呈。 Mr. He, 48, was born in northwestern China and attended university in Wuhan before earning a doctorate in ecological economics in 2007 at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York State, according to his résumé. 根据简历，48岁的贺立宁出生于中国西北部，在武汉上大学，2007年在纽约州伦斯勒理工学院获得生态经济学博士学位。 Before graduating, he served as an intern at the State Assembly in Albany for Mr. Colton and then worked for a few years at electric grid operators in New York and California. 毕业前，他在奥尔巴尼的州议会为科尔顿做实习工作，然后在纽约和加利福尼亚的电网运营公司工作了几年。 Mr. He said he moved back to China in late 2010 to care for his grandmother. The Chinese economy was booming, he said, and with a doctorate from a prestigious American university, his talents were in demand. 贺立宁说，他在2010年底搬回中国照顾祖母。他说，当时中国经济正在蓬勃发展，而他拥有美国一所著名大学的博士学位，他的才能很受欢迎。 He became director of asset management at a state-run investment firm called Guangxi Beibu Gulf Investment Group Corp. in 2011. In that role, Mr. He had some familiarity with the sprawling array of companies controlled by the group, ranging from oil firms to toll roads and even a water company. He left in 2015. 2011年，他成为国有投资公司广西北部湾投资集团有限公司的资产管理总监。在这个职位上，他接近了该集团控制的众多公司（从石油公司到收费公路，甚至还有一家自来水公司）。他于2015年离职。 During his tenure, according to a prospectus, Guangxi Beibu was among the biggest shareholders in a tin company whose investors included two people with close ties to the highest level of Chinese state power: the older sister and brother-in-law of China’s president, Xi Jinping. 根据招股说明书，在他任职期间，广西北部湾投资集团是一家锡业公司的最大股东之一，该公司的投资者包括两名与中国最高权力层关系密切的人：中国国家主席习近平的姐姐和姐夫。 Mr. He said he did not know about the Xi family’s stake in the company. 贺立宁说，他不知道习近平家族在该公司持有股份。 He said he left China because he was “fed up” with the state company’s stifling bureaucracy. “That’s not the life I wanted,” he said. 他说他离开中国是因为他“受够了”国有企业令人窒息的官僚作风。“那不是我想要的生活，”他说。 In 2016, Mr. He and his wife bought a house outside of Syracuse, around the same time he became a partner in a small investment company there. 2016年，贺立宁和妻子在锡拉丘兹郊外买了一栋房子，大约在同一时间，他成为了那里一家小型投资公司的合伙人。 He also began helping a fish processing company in Kentucky, Two Rivers Fisheries, find Chinese investors. The company catches Asian carp, an invasive species, and turns it into fish balls, pet food and fertilizer. 他还开始帮助肯塔基州的一家鱼类加工公司Two Rivers Fisheries寻找中国投资者。该公司捕获入侵物种亚洲鲤鱼，并将其制成鱼丸、宠物食品和肥料。 “He helped me bring the investors, and he helped me find the buyers,” said Angie Yu, the founder. “He worked really hard.” “他帮我带来了投资者，也帮我找到了买家，”创始人安吉·余（音）说。“他工作真的很努力。” Within a few years, he left the private sector and rose swiftly in South Brooklyn politics. He and his wife volunteered for Susan Zhuang, a conservative Democrat, in her successful 2023 campaign for a City Council seat centered in the Brooklyn neighborhood of Bensonhurst. Ms. Zhuang did not answer questions about Mr. He. 没过几几年，他离开了私企，在南布鲁克林政界迅速崛起。2023年，保守派民主党人庄文怡成功竞选布鲁克林的本森赫斯特社区市议会席位，贺立宁和妻子自愿为她提供帮助。庄文怡没有回答有关贺立宁的问题。 In late 2023, Mr. He became Mr. Colton’s chief of staff, the job previously held by Ms. Zhuang, at a salary of $55,000. Mr. Colton did not respond to messages seeking comment. 2023年底，贺立宁成为科尔顿的幕僚长，这个职位此前由庄文怡担任，薪水为5.5万美元。科尔顿没有回复寻求置评的消息。 Mr. He said he felt a calling to enter public service in the United States. “I always have this obligation to help people,” he said. 贺立宁说，他感到一种在美国从事公共服务的召唤。“我一直觉得有责任帮助别人，”他说。 In leaving behind a high-ranking business post in China, Mr. He followed an unusual career path, experts on Chinese influence said. 研究中国影响力的专家说，贺立宁离开在中国的高级商业职位后，走的是一条不同寻常的职业道路。 Andrew Wedeman, a retired political scientist at Georgia State University who studies Chinese corruption, noted that Mr. He left a position of influence in China “to return to the U.S. to become the chief of staff of an Assemblyman.” 佐治亚州立大学研究中国腐败问题的退休政治学家安德鲁·韦德曼指出，贺立宁离开了在中国有影响力的职位，“回到美国成为一名州议员的幕僚长”。 “Seems like a very odd transition,” Mr. Wedeman added. “这似乎是一个非常奇怪的转型，”韦德曼还说。 Liu Yi对本文有报道贡献，Kitty Bennett有研究贡献。 Jay Root是时报驻纽约州奥尔巴尼的一名调查记者，报道影响和受州和地方政府影响的人物和事件。 傅才德(Michael Forsythe)是时报调查记者，常驻纽约。他此前曾驻中国，广泛报道该国各类议题。 Bianca Pallaro是时报记者，她将传统报道与数据分析技能相结合，调查不法行为，并通过将数字转化为有洞察力的信息来解释复杂问题。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MUJIB MASHAL, HARI KUMAR, ATUL LOKE2025年6月16日达赖喇嘛在印度达兰萨拉主要的藏传佛教寺庙，摄于2024年。 Atul Loke for The New York Times Over the nearly seven decades since the Dalai Lama led his flock of tens of thousands out of Tibet to escape Chinese persecution, he put himself to the grueling work of sustaining a nation in exile. 自从七十年前带领数万藏人逃离中国迫害以来，达赖喇嘛一直勉励支撑着一个流亡的民族。 As both the spiritual and political leader of Tibetan Buddhists, he established a little democracy in the Indian Himalayas, complete with a parliament and all its routine bickering and beauty. He entrenched a bureaucracy that encouraged a culture of service among a scattered people. In refugee settlements across India, the Tibetan administration runs schools, clinics, monasteries, agricultural cooperatives and even old-age homes. 作为藏传佛教徒的精神与政治领袖，他在印属喜马拉雅山区建立了一个小小的民主政体，拥有议会以及与之相伴的日常纷争与美好。他还建立了一套官僚体系，在四处散落的藏人中培育出服务文化。在遍布印度的流亡藏人聚居地点，西藏流亡政府管理着学校、诊所、寺院、农业合作社乃至养老院。 But as the Dalai Lama turns 90 next month, Tibetans in exile are anxious about the fate of their stateless nation. 但随着达赖喇嘛下月将迎来90岁生日，流亡藏人对他们这个无邦之族的命运越来越感到焦虑不安。 The man who has been Tibetans’ binding force and most recognizable face is growing increasingly frail. His goal of returning his people to their homeland remains distant, with China working to finish the task of crushing the Tibetan movement for autonomy. And as Tibetans confront a future of continued exile, the United States and other global powers have become more unreliable in their support. 达赖喇嘛是藏人凝聚力的源泉，是最耳熟能详的人物，如今他的身体每况日下。他带领流亡藏人回归故土的目标依然遥不可及——西藏的自治运动遭到中国政府的全力扼杀。随着藏人面临归期渺茫的未来，来自美国等全球大国的支持也越来越不可倚仗。 僧侣们在达兰萨拉的藏传佛教寺庙里辩经。在印度南部卡纳塔克邦比拉库佩的一个藏人定居点的小学里，学生们正在学习弹奏西藏的传统乐器扎木念。 “We are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst,” said Tsering Yangchen, a member of Tibet’s parliament in exile, invoking a refrain from the Dalai Lama himself. “我们抱最好的希望，做最坏的打算，”流亡藏人议会议员次仁央金说，这也是达赖喇嘛本人挂在嘴边的一句话。 When his birthday is celebrated on July 6, the Dalai Lama has promised, he will reveal a plan for deciding on his successor that factors in the complexities of the moment. The most pressing is dealing with China’s efforts to hijack the process. 达赖喇嘛承诺，在7月6日的庆生活动上，他将公布选定继任者的计划，该计划将考虑到当前形势的复杂性。其中最紧迫的问题是如何应对中国操控这一继任程序的企图。 Under Tibetan tradition, the search for a Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, who becomes his successor, begins only upon the incumbent’s death. After the next Dalai Lama is identified as a baby, there can be a gap of nearly two decades until he is groomed and takes the reins. 根据藏传佛教传统，寻找达赖喇嘛的转世灵童，也就是下一任达赖喇嘛的工作，只有在上一任圆寂后才能开始。从确认转世灵童到完成坐床亲政，期间可能相隔近二十年。 顿珠次仁（Thondup Tsering，左）和丹增晋美(Tenzing Jigme)，他们是达兰萨拉西藏流亡议会的成员，现居美国。比拉库佩藏人定居点的一所慈善医院。 The Dalai Lama has hinted that he might buck these established practices as part of an apparent strategy to throw off the Chinese and avoid a vacuum that Beijing can exploit as it seeks to control Tibetan Buddhism. 达赖喇嘛暗示，他可能会打破这些既定做法，这显然是为了摆脱中国的干预、避免北京利用权力真空期试图控制藏传佛教而采取的一种策略。 He has said that his successor will be born in a free country, indicating that the next Dalai Lama could come from among Tibetan exiles, who number about 140,000, half of them in India. He has also said that his successor could be an adult, and not necessarily a man. 他曾表示，继任者将在自由世界诞生，这表明下一任达赖喇嘛可能来自大约14万藏人流亡者，其中一半居住在印度。他还表示，他的转世可能是一个成年人，而且不一定是男性。 China already has a blueprint for inserting itself in Tibetan successions. After the 10th Panchen Lama, as Tibet’s second highest spiritual figure is known, died in 1989, the boy whom the Dalai Lama recognized as the successor went missing in Tibet when he was 6. He has not been seen since. 中国已经有了干预藏传佛教传承的蓝图。藏传佛教第二大精神领袖第十世班禅喇嘛于1989年圆寂后，达赖喇嘛认定的转世灵童6岁的时候在西藏失踪，至今下落不明。 In his stead, China selected and promoted its own Panchen Lama. Earlier this month, that lama met with the country’s leader, Xi Jinping, and reaffirmed his allegiance to the Chinese Communist Party. 取而代之的是，中国选定并扶植了自己的班禅喇嘛。本月早些时候，中国领导人习近平会见了这位班禅喇嘛，后者重申了自己对中国共产党的忠诚。 中国官方媒体发表的一张照片显示，6月，中国领导人习近平在北京会见了政府任命的第十一世班禅喇嘛。 Xie Huanchi/Xinhua, via Associated Press But interfering in the succession of the Dalai Lama runs the risk of provoking unrest among the roughly six million people in Tibet. 但干预达赖喇嘛转世可能存在引发西藏约600万民众骚动的风险。 “The Dalai Lama has been out of his house and country for 65 years, and that has already created a great sense of pain, anger, frustration and disappointment among the Tibetans inside Tibet,” said Tenzin Tsundue, a Tibetan activist and poet. “This will, you know, burst into volcano.” 流亡藏人活动家、诗人丹增尊珠表示：“达赖喇嘛离开故土和祖国已65年，这给西藏境内的藏人带来了巨大的痛苦、愤怒、挫折与失望。你知道，这种情绪终将如火山般爆发。” 流亡藏人活动家、诗人丹增尊珠在位于达兰萨拉的家中。比拉库佩，一座佛塔旁的僧侣和当地民众。 The succession question has become more urgent as the Dalai Lama has become more frail, with his public engagements increasingly restricted. 随着达赖喇嘛的身体日渐虚弱，公开露面的次数越来越少，继任人问题变得愈加紧迫起来。 More than eight decades ago, the Dalai Lama’s ascension was accompanied by another perilous period that instilled a fear of discontinuity that has shaped his lifetime of work. 80多年前，达赖喇嘛的继位恰逢另一段危机时期，这种对传承中断的恐惧，影响了他此后一生的努力方向。 After his predecessor, the 13th Dalai Lama, died in 1933 at age 57, a search committee set out to identify a child who could grow into Tibet’s new spiritual leader. 1933年，57岁的第十三世达赖喇嘛圆寂。此后，一个负责搜寻的委员会开始着手认定一位能成长为西藏新精神领袖的转世灵童。 The boy was discovered after two years of effort. The committee arrived at the family’s door during a harsh Tibetan winter, as they were clearing four feet of snow, the future Dalai Lama’s mother wrote in her memoir. 经过两年的努力，他们找到了这个男孩。未来的达赖喇嘛的母亲在她的回忆录中写道，寻访者在西藏的一个严酷冬日来到了他们家门口，当时他们一家正在清理一米多深的积雪。 达赖喇嘛的身体每况日下。达赖喇嘛的公开露面越来越少。 Moving the boy to Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, required paying ransoms to local warlords. His education, as well as his assumption of political leadership, was fast-tracked because the Chinese government was using the vacuum to tighten its noose around the autonomous region. 将灵童转移到西藏首府拉萨需要向当地军阀支付赎金。由于当时的中国政府正利用权力真空加紧对这个自治区的控制，他的教育和政治领袖地位的继承进程都加速了。 If a similar gap were to happen after the current Dalai Lama’s death — with the added challenge of a nation now in exile — it would be “a disaster,” said Lobsang Tenzin, a Tibetan educator who is better known as the Samdhong Rinpoche. 以桑东仁波切这个尊号而为人所知的西藏教育家洛桑丹增说，如果在现任达赖喇嘛去世后出现类似的空档，再加上流亡政府面临的额外挑战，那将是一场“灾难”。 He served as prime minister in the Tibetan refugee administration and has known the Dalai Lama for more than 60 years. From the start, the Samdhong Rinpoche said, the Dalai Lama wanted to put in institutions and a culture that could hold a traumatized people together in exile after he was gone. 曾任西藏流亡政府总理、与达赖喇嘛相识60多年的桑东仁波切说，达赖喇嘛从一开始就希望建立一种制度和传统，能够在他去世后，将饱受创伤的流亡藏人团结在一起。 “In the first meeting, he told me that now the monks cannot remain just as monks would — just meditating and studying,” the Samdhong Rinpoche said about the early months of their exile, when he was still a teenager. “That we should learn from the Christian monks and nuns. They always work as nurses or teachers or doctors.” 桑东仁波切谈及流亡初期的经历（当时他还不到20岁）时说：“第一次碰面时，他告诉我如今的僧人不能只满足于传统僧侣的生活——只进行冥想和修习。我们应该向基督教的修士和修女学习，他们总是从事护士、教师或医生等工作。” In the decades that followed, the Samdhong Rinpoche had a front-row seat to the Dalai Lama’s efforts to put some distance between himself and the institutions he was building on lands he had managed to acquire from the Indian government. 在接下来的几十年里，桑东仁波切近距离见证了达赖喇嘛试图在自己与流亡政府体系之间保持距离的努力——这些机构建立在他设法向印度政府争取来的土地上。 He wanted his political powers to be devolved to a self-reliant democracy while he remained the spiritual head of the Tibetan people. 达赖喇嘛希望将自己的政治权力移交给一个独立的民主机构，而自己仅保留藏人精神领袖的地位。 桑东仁波切表示，达赖喇嘛长期以来一直致力于建立能够在他去世后继续存在的组织架构。 接受达赖喇嘛赐福。 “His Holiness was adamant that sooner or later His Holiness should be irrelevant,” the Samdhong Rinpoche said. 桑东仁波切说：“尊者坚定地认为，他本人迟早应该淡出政治舞台。” That was easier said than done, given the Dalai Lama’s singular role as the leader of his people and as an international celebrity with a vast fund-raising network. 但鉴于达赖喇嘛作为藏人精神领袖的特殊地位，以及作为国际名人拥有的庞大筹款网络，这说起来容易做起来难。 But his political position was devolved partly in 2001 and entirely in 2011, when Tibetans elected a sikyong, the equivalent of a president, through a vote held across refugee settlements in India and in other Tibetan communities around the world. 实际上他已经将政治权力逐步移交，2001年部分放权，至2011年完全退出——当年，藏人通过遍布印度各难民定居点及全球藏人社区的投票，选举产生了相当于总统的司政。 “He’s my boss,” the Dalai Lama said at an event in 2012 when he introduced the leader elected by the people. “Although when it comes to spiritual affairs, I’m still his boss!” “他是我的老板，”达赖喇嘛2012年在一场活动上介绍这位民选领导人时说道，“不过在宗教事务上，我还是他的老板！” The current sikyong is Penpa Tsering, 62. Like his predecessor, he was born in a refugee camp in India and has never been to Tibet. 现任司政是62岁的边巴次仁。与他的前任一样，他也出生在印度的难民营，从未去过西藏。 Twice a year, the 45-member Tibetan Parliament meets in Dharamsala, India, to approve the budget and review the government’s performance. Most of its members have other jobs, like teaching or running restaurants. 由45名议员组成的藏人议会每年在印度达兰萨拉召开两次会议，审议预算并评估政府工作。大多数议员都还有其他工作，比如教书或经营餐馆。 They make heavy use of social media to weave together a nation now in its third generation of exile. The sikyong, during an interview last fall, joked that his role was that of a digital “tour guide” helping Tibetan people connect. 他们大量运用社交媒体，将这个现在已是第三代流亡的民族凝聚在一起。去年秋天接受采访时，现任司政曾笑称自己的角色如同数字“导游”，帮助藏人建立联结。 Much of his time is spent on the road, trying to fill the Dalai Lama’s huge shoes in his advocacy efforts. 他大部分时间都在各地奔走，尽力填补达赖喇嘛在倡导工作上留下的巨大真空。 “Earlier, we didn’t have to work that hard because His Holiness was there,” Mr. Tsering said. 边巴次仁说：“以前，我们不必这么劳苦，因为有尊者在。” 达兰萨拉的流亡藏人行政办公机构。 现任西藏流亡政府司政边巴次仁。他出生在比拉库佩难民营。 “We don’t command that kind of respect,” he added. “I’m a very ordinary Tibetan from a farmers’ background.” “我们不具备那样的威望，”他补充道。“我是一个来自农民家庭的非常普通的藏人。” Mujib Mashal是《纽约时报》南亚分社社长，负责领导时报对印度及其周边不同地区的报道，包括孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔和不丹。 Hari Kumar常驻新德里，报道印度新闻。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎2025年6月16日2024年，中国劳工通讯创始人韩东方在香港办公室。这个追踪中国境内工人维权事件的组织周四宣布停止运营。 Anthony Kwan for The New York Times China Labor Bulletin, a Hong Kong-based group that tracked worker unrest in China and was started by a former pro-democracy protest leader, said on Thursday that it was shutting down because of financial difficulties. The group had also faced increased scrutiny in recent years amid a broader crackdown and silencing of civil society in Hong Kong. 总部位于香港的中国劳工通讯周四宣布，因财务困难将停止运作。它由一位前民主抗议领袖创办，一直以来追踪中国境内的工人维权事件。近年来，随着香港民间社会普遍遭受打压，该组织也面临日益严格的审查。 The group said that because of “financial difficulties and debt issues,” it could no longer maintain operations and had “decided to dissolve.” It said it would stop updating content on its website and social media platforms. 该组织表示，由于“资金短缺和负债问题”，它无法再维持运营，已“决定解散”。它表示，其网站和社交媒体平台上的内容停止更新。 The group was founded by Han Dongfang, one of the last remaining labor rights activists not in hiding in Chinese territory. The group continued to operate in Hong Kong, even as other China-focused civil society groups started closing or leaving from 2020, when Beijing imposed a national security law that has dismantled civil rights protections that gave the city its semiautonomous status. 该组织由韩东方创立，他是中国境内少数仍然活跃的劳工权益活动人士之一。即便2020年北京实施《国家安全法》、逐步瓦解保障香港半自治地位的公民权利以来，众多关注中国的民间社会团体相继关闭或撤离，但中国劳工通讯仍坚持在香港运作。 China Labor Bulletin, a resource for journalists and academics about worker unrest in China, was founded in 1994 by Mr. Han, who had been one of the leaders of pro-democracy protests around Tiananmen Square in 1989. Over the years, the organization closely monitored some of China’s biggest labor disputes and secured compensation for workers with grievances against their companies. It regularly updated a map of labor strikes across the country, and published reports on companies and industries with known labor concerns. 韩东方是1989年天安门广场民主抗议活动的领导者之一，他于1994年创办了中国劳工通讯，为记者和学者提供有关中国工人的抗争资讯。多年来，该组织密切关注中国多起重大劳资纠纷，帮助权益受侵害的工人争取赔偿。它定期更新全国各地的劳工罢工地图，并发布有关已知存在劳工问题的企业和行业的报告。 But in recent years, as the space for civil society in China narrowed and labor activists were monitored and harassed, Mr. Han directed his employees to focus on cases of labor unrest that involved foreign companies subject to foreign laws. 但近年来，随着中国公民社会的活动空间不断收窄，劳工活动人士受到监控和骚扰，韩东方指示员工将工作重心转向涉及外资企业的劳资纠纷案件，这些企业受外国法律管辖。 Mr. Han was not available by phone or email on Friday. A guard in the lobby of the building where China Labor Bulletin had its office in Hong Kong said the group had moved out a month ago. The organization’s sign had been taken down. 周五，记者通过电话或电子邮件联系韩东方未果。中国劳工通讯香港办公室所在大厦的一名大堂保安表示，该组织一个月前就搬走了。其标牌已经取下。 In an interview last year, Mr. Han told The New York Times that he was certain China’s state security and local national security police were surveilling his offices. But, he added, “I prefer to be open rather than to hide.” 在去年接受采访时，韩东方告诉《纽约时报》，他确信中国的国家安全部门和香港的国安警察正在监视他的办公室。但是，他还说，“我宁愿公开，也不愿躲藏。” Academics have warned that China Labor Bulletin, and Mr. Han, could become a target of Beijing’s tightening grip on Hong Kong under the guise of national security because it is funded in part by a charity registered in the United States. 有学者警告称，中国劳工通讯和韩东方可能会成为北京以国家安全为幌子加紧控制香港的目标，因为它的部分资金来自一家在美国注册的慈善机构。 Hong Kong and Beijing authorities have increasingly leaned on new national security legislation to arrest and charge activists, often citing links to foreign funding and organizations overseas as grounds for the arrests. 香港和北京当局越来越多地依靠新的国家安全立法来逮捕和起诉活动人士，往往以他们与外国资金和海外组织的联系作为逮捕的理由。 Hours before China Labor Bulletin’s announcement, on Thursday night, Beijing national security authorities operating in Hong Kong raided the homes of six people and the office of an organization that the government said it suspected of committing “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security.” The authorities did not name the individuals or the organization. 在中国劳工通讯发布公告的几个小时前，周四晚间，香港的国安机构搜查了六人的住所和一个组织的办公室，政府称该组织涉嫌“勾结外国或者境外势力危害国家安全”。当局没有透露上述个人或组织的名字。 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID E. SANGER2025年6月16日全国范围内的“不要国王”抗议活动由200多个团体组织。 Jordan Gale for The New York Times President Trump presided over a show of American military might in the nation’s capital on Saturday evening, a celebration of the 250th anniversary of the United States Army that became a test of wills and competing imagery, with demonstrators around the country decrying his expansion of executive power. 周六傍晚，特朗普总统在首都华盛顿主持了庆祝美国陆军建军250周年的阅兵式，展示美国的军事实力。阅兵式与全国各地的示威者谴责特朗普扩大行政权力的抗议活动形成了意志的较量和形象的博弈。 Mr. Trump sat in a reviewing stand on Constitution Avenue as armored vehicles dating from two World Wars and overflights of 80-year old bombers and modern helicopters shook downtown Washington. The city was locked down, divided by a wall of tall, black crowd-control fences designed to assure that the parade, the first of its kind since American troops returned from the Gulf War in 1991, was an uninterrupted demonstration of history and American power. 特朗普坐在宪法大道的检阅台上，观看装甲车队（包括两次世界大战年代的装甲车）从面前驶过，同时，有80年机龄的轰炸机和现代的直升机隆隆作响地从华盛顿市中心上空飞过。全城采取了封控措施，高高的黑色围栏将人群隔离在阅兵场地外——这是自美军1991年海湾战争归来后的首次此类活动——以确保阅兵式不受干扰地展示历史和国力。 It went off without a hitch, but also without even a nod to the current moment. When Mr. Trump left his seat between his wife, Melania Trump, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, it was to swear in new soldiers — “Have a great life,” he told them after the brief ceremony — and then, at sundown, to recall the Army’s greatest moments. 虽然阅兵式顺利进行，但仪式上看不出一点对时局的回应。特朗普曾一度离开位于妻子梅拉尼娅和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯之间的座位给新兵们宣誓，那个简短仪式结束后，他对新兵们说：“祝你们拥有精彩人生！”后来，他在日落时分发表了讲话，回顾了陆军历史上最辉煌的时刻。 He invoked George Washington and recalled Gettysburg. Yet he spoke more to the Army’s power than to its purpose. “Time and again, America’s enemies have learned that you threaten the American people, soldiers are coming for you. Your defeat will be certain, your demise will be final, and your downfall will be total and complete.” 他提到了乔治·华盛顿，回顾了葛底斯堡战役。但他提的更多的是陆军的实力，而非使命。“美国的敌人一次又一次地学到，如果他们威胁美国的人民，美国的军人不会放过他们。他们的失败是必定的，灭亡是不可逆转的，覆灭终将彻底。” Hours before he left the White House, the day had already encapsulated the sharpness of America’s divide over immigration, free speech and Mr. Trump’s determination to reshape the government, universities and cultural institutions to adopt his worldview. 早在他离开白宫前往阅兵场的几小时前，那天就已浓缩了美国社会在移民、言论自由，以及特朗普决意按照自己的世界观重塑政府、大学和文化机构等问题上的尖锐分歧。 By design, military parades are part national celebration and part international intimidation, and Mr. Trump has wanted one in Washington since he attended a Bastille Day parade in Paris in 2017. Formally, the parade celebrates the decision by the Second Continental Congress on June 14, 1775, to raise a unified, lightly armed force of colonialists after the shock of the battles with British forces at Lexington and Concord. That army, which George Washington took command of a month later, ultimately expelled the far larger, better armed colonial force. 阅兵式从来即是爱国主义的庆典，也是为了对外的震慑。自从2017年在巴黎观看了巴士底日阅兵以来，特朗普就一直想在华盛顿举行阅兵。这次阅兵形式上是为纪念第二届大陆会议1775年6月14日的决定——在列克星敦和康科德与英军作战的震撼下，会议决定组建一支由殖民者组成的一体化的轻武装部队。这支一个月后由乔治·华盛顿担任统帅的军队最终赶走了数量更大、装备更精良的英国统治者军队。 But no celebration of history takes place in a political vacuum. And protesters in large cities and small towns from Seattle to Key West showed up in overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations against how Mr. Trump was making use of the modern force. His decisions over the past week to federalize the National Guard and call the Marines into the streets of Los Angeles, in support of his immigration roundups, has supercharged a debate about whether he is abusing the powers of the commander in chief. 然而，任何庆祝历史的活动都不是在政治真空中进行的。从西雅图到基韦斯特，全美大城小镇的抗议者走上街头，用绝大多数为和平的方式举行示威，抗议特朗普滥用当代武装力量。他过去一周做出的决定——让国民警卫队听从联邦政府调遣，把海军陆战队员派到洛杉矶的街上，为他的移民围捕行动提供支持，已让关于他是否滥用了总司令权力的争论更加激烈。 亚特兰大周六举行的“不要国王”抗议活动，这是全国数百场抗议活动之一。 It was a split-screen show of force. Roughly 2,000 protests, under the slogan “No Kings,” pushed back against what the crowds decried as authoritarian overreach. While the big-city rallies attracted the attention and the cameras, smaller events were organized in rural areas, including three dozen in Indiana, a state Mr. Trump won last November by 19 points. 这是这两种力量的对比展示。美国各地周六当天发生了约2000起抗议活动，人们喊着“不要国王”的口号，群众谴责他们认为的专制越权行为。尽管大城市的集会吸引了更多关注和镜头，但农村地区也组织了不少规模较小的活动，包括印第安纳州举行的36场抗议活动，特朗普去年11月曾以19个百分点的优势赢得该州。 In Dallas, another stronghold of Mr. Trump’s support, crowds of protesters stretched across a wide street for at least five blocks. The Houston protest looked more like a block party, with dances to Mexican music and cool-offs in a fountain. 达拉斯是特朗普的另一处票仓，那里的抗议队伍在一条宽阔的街道上延伸了至少五个街区。休斯顿的抗议活动看起来更像是街区派对，人们在墨西哥音乐的伴随下跳舞，在喷泉里冲凉。 But in Los Angeles, which has seen a week of demonstrations, car-burnings and episodic violence, a large crowd gathered downtown, spreading over several city blocks. As the evening wore on and an 8 p.m. curfew approached, tensions rose, with the police using chemical irritants in an attempt to disperse some protesters from a complex of federal buildings and officers on horseback charging toward groups of others and swinging their batons to break them up. 但洛杉矶的气氛更紧张一点，那里已经发生了一周的示威活动，以及焚烧汽车等偶然的暴力事件。周六聚集在市中心的抗议者人群覆盖了几个街区。随着夜幕降临，晚上8点的宵禁时限临近，紧张气氛不断升级。在联邦大楼外，警察试图使用化学刺激物驱散聚集的抗议者，在其他地方，骑警冲向人群，挥舞警棍企图强行清场。 Back in Washington, the organizers of the America250 events, for which this is the first big production, sold a “dedicated V.I.P. experience” to large donors, and red MAGA hats to the president’s supporters. It is also Mr. Trump’s 79th birthday, though he has insisted the celebration is about the army, not him. Organizers expected veterans of the Korea and Vietnam conflicts to turn out along with those who fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, two wars that Mr. Trump — and many Democrats — have declared were wastes of lives and money. 再说华盛顿这边。这次阅兵是“美国250”组织者的首场大制作，组织者把“专属VIP体验”票卖给了大额捐赠者们，还向总统的支持者出售红色的MAGA（让美国再次伟大）帽子。当天也是特朗普的79岁生日，尽管他坚称庆祝活动是为军队，无关个人。组织者们预期参加过朝鲜战争和越南战争的老兵，以及在阿富汗和伊拉克战争中打过仗的老兵出席了阅兵式，后两场战争曾被特朗普——以及许多民主党人——批评为浪费生命和金钱。 Mr. Trump has defended the spending of as much as $45 million — including the cost of repairing Washington’s streets from the damage expected from rolling 60-ton tanks down Constitution Avenue — as a small price to pay to stoke national pride and to remind the world of America’s hard power. He told an interviewer on NBC last month that the price tag was “peanuts compared to the value of doing it.” 特朗普为此次高达4500万美元的开支进行了辩护，这笔钱包括修复华盛顿市内道路的费用，60吨重的坦克从宪法大道上驶过会损坏道路。他说对激发民族自豪感、提醒世界美国的硬实力来说，这是笔小钱。他上个月接受NBC采访时说，这笔钱“与这样做的价值相比微不足道”。 Every minute was broadcast on Fox News and other conservative networks and streaming services, while the legacy cable networks kept to their ordinary programming. One Fox broadcaster declared the parade showed that “America means business,” and another argued that the show of force rolling alongside the Mall would provide “succor to our allies” and “strike a little bit of fear and a little bit of deterrence” into American enemies. 福克斯新闻等保守派电视网和流媒体平台全程转播了阅兵式，而老式有线电视网则维持常规节目安排。福克斯新闻的一名主播说，这场阅兵表明“美国说话算数”；另一位则称，沿国家广场两边滚滚而来的武力展示将“给我们的盟友（提供）慰藉”，“给（美国的敌人）带来一点恐惧和一点威慑”。 But in the run-up to the parade, Mr. Trump’s critics argued that such a display could do just the opposite, making the country look as if it were yearning for past glories while ignoring the risks of treating allies as if they are a burden. 但在为阅兵做准备期间，特朗普的批评者指出，这种展示可能有适得其反的后果，让人觉得美国似乎沉湎于过去的辉煌，却忽视将盟友视为负担的风险。 Mr. Trump’s political advisers bet that half the country or more would enjoy watching the display of Army history, from the World War I tanks to the twin-prop B-25 Mitchells that swept over neighborhoods in northwest Washington on their way to the flyover, as much as Mr. Trump’s ever-evolving definition of what “America First” means to his presidency. Parades are pure showmanship, and Mr. Trump is the master showman. 特朗普的政治顾问们心中确信，半数甚至更多的美国人会喜欢看这场美国陆军历史的展示，从“一战”时期的坦克，到从华盛顿西北部的街道上空飞过、前往阅兵场做飞行表演的双螺旋桨B-25“米切尔”轰炸机。这些顾问们笃信，这些画面会像特朗普对“美国优先”理念在其总统任期内不断变化的定义一般，令半数甚至更多的美国人津津乐道。阅兵纯粹是作秀，而特朗普则是最擅长表演的大师。 Yet a military parade is also an unvarnished celebration of America’s hard power, even if this one was dominated by huge equipment, like the M-1 Abrams tank, that seems antiquated in an age of drones and cyberweapons. (Of the 31 Abrams tanks given to Ukraine over the past two years, only a handful remain operational; most were taken out by the Russians or sidelined by breakdowns.) 但阅兵也是对美国硬实力赤裸裸的颂扬，尽管这场阅兵主要展示了像M-1艾布拉姆斯坦克这样的巨型装备，在一个无人机和网络武器时代，这些装备显得有些过时。（乌克兰在过去两年里得到的31辆艾布拉姆斯坦克中，现在只有少数还能作战；大多数已被俄军摧毁或因故障瘫痪。） And it comes at a moment the administration has been ridiculing as wasteful such efforts as providing global aid, battling H.I.V. or backing basic research at universities that Mr. Trump has gone to war against. The parade’s estimated cost will amount to about a fifth of the annual budget of the Voice of America, which had millions of listeners around the world until Mr. Trump took it off the air this spring. 在白宫将全球援助、艾滋病防治和高校基础研究等特朗普长期抨击的项目斥为浪费的同时，这场耗资约等于"美国之音"全年预算五分之一的阅兵却大张旗鼓上演——而这家曾拥有数百万全球听众的机构已在今春遭特朗普政府停播。 一辆停在国家广场边上准备参加阅兵式的军车。预计这些重型车辆将损坏华盛顿的道路。 The protests, which organizers deliberately kept outside Washington to avoid focusing more attention on the military celebration, had been planned for many weeks, as opposition to the administration’s efforts to dismiss expert opinion, oust the “deep state” and silence critics has mounted. 美国各地的抗议活动已筹划了数周，组织者们特意将活动安排在华盛顿特区以外的地方，以避免让更多的注意力集中到阅兵式上。民众对特朗普政府打压专家意见、清除“深层政府”，以及噤声批评者等行径日益高涨深感不满。 Mr. Trump’s decision to move 4,000 National Guard troops and 700 Marines into Los Angeles asserted a role for the military at home, which was exactly what had given the Continental Congress pause about creating a colonial army at all. That same concern, 250 years later, was expected to give the weekend protests mass and weight. They were further fueled by Mr. Trump’s speech at Fort Bragg in North Carolina last week, when he lumped in peaceful protesters with “troublemakers, agitators, insurrectionists,” and later said anyone protesting in Washington would be met with “very big force.” 特朗普调动4000名国民警卫队员和700名海军陆战队员前往洛杉矶的决定明确肯定了军队在国内的作用，这正是大陆会议在组建殖民者军队的问题上犹豫不决的原因。250年后，同样的担忧让周末的抗议活动规模更大、更有力。特朗普上周在北卡罗来纳州的布拉格堡发表讲话，进一步激励了人们参加抗议活动，他把和平的抗议者与“麻烦制造者、煽动者、叛乱分子”归并在一起，后来还说，任何在华盛顿抗议的人都将遇到“非常大的力量”。 David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
MARCO HERNANDEZ2025年6月13日 Authoritarian regimes use them to intimidate. Democracies use them to commemorate. Military parades are both grand spectacle and potent message. 威权政权用它们恐吓。民主国家用它们纪念。阅兵既是壮观的场面，也是有力的信息。 In a few days, the streets of Washington will host one of their own. The occasion, at least officially, is the 250th anniversary of the United States Army. It also just so happens to be President Trump’s 79th birthday. 再过几天，华盛顿街头也将举行自己的阅兵式。至少在官方意义上，这是纪念美国陆军成立250周年。同时也正好是特朗普总统的79岁生日。 The motives of countries that stage such parades may vary, but the events all tend to share a common visual vocabulary. 各国举办此类仪式的动机可能各不相同，但这些活动往往都有共同的视觉词汇。 Here is what to look for. 下面是值得留意的东西。 Iconic settings 标志性建筑 北京的中国国庆阅兵，2019年10月 From Tiananmen Square to the Arc de Triomphe, many military parades take place against the backdrop of a country’s most recognizable landmarks, often symbols of national identity and history. That heightens the visual and emotional impact. 从天安门广场到凯旋门，许多阅兵式都以一个国家最著名的地标为背景，这些地标建筑往往是国家身份和历史的象征。这加强了视觉和情感上的冲击。 It can also signal that military power is deeply intertwined with the fabric of the nation and reinforce a sense of unity among its people. 它也可以表明军事力量与国家结构紧密相连，并加强人民的团结意识。 “There is definitely a deep meaning to these locations: They are to evoke and symbolize military triumphs and national sovereignty preserved in wars and paid for with enormous sacrifices,” said Leon Aron, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank. 智库美国企业研究所高级研究员莱昂·阿隆说，“这些地点肯定有深刻的含义，它们唤起并象征着在战争中维护的军事胜利和国家主权，这些胜利和主权是以巨大的牺牲换来的。” The parade in Washington on June 14 will begin at the Pentagon and make its way toward the National Mall, passing Mr. Trump’s viewing stand on Constitution Avenue, according to Army officials. 据陆军官员称，6月14日在华盛顿举行的阅兵式将从五角大楼开始，前往国家广场，途经宪法大道上特朗普所在的观礼台。 Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, a Democrat who was once chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said in May that if Mr. Trump were not in power, the celebrations for the Army’s anniversary would most likely have been much more modest and taken place at Fort Myer in Arlington, Va. 罗德岛州民主党参议员、曾任军事委员会主席的杰克·里德今年5月表示，如果特朗普没有上台，陆军的周年纪念活动很可能会低调得多，会在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿的迈尔堡举行。 “But this is Trump,” he said. “但这就是特朗普，”他说。 Strategic seating charts 用意深刻的座席排位 2025年5月 Military parades also offer a perfect photo op for leaders who want to show the world who their allies are. 阅兵也为想向世界展示谁是盟友的领导人提供了绝佳的拍照机会。 In Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin has long invited foreign leaders to attend the annual Victory Day Parade in Moscow. But after Russia invaded Ukraine and the West moved to isolate it, Mr. Putin’s guests of honor took on outsize significance. 俄罗斯总统普京长期以来一直邀请外国领导人参加在莫斯科举行的一年一度的胜利日阅兵。但在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、西方开始孤立乌克兰之后，普京的贵宾们显得格外重要。 “When the regime is fully confident of its legitimacy, the loyalty of the people and their armed forces… you don’t need this sort of display,” said Dr. Aron, “The more you need to display it, I think, the more you show that there is an issue of legitimacy.” “当一个政权对自己的合法性、人民及其武装力量的忠诚完全有信心时……你就不需要这种展示，”阿隆说。“我认为，你越是需要展示，就越说明存在合法性问题。” Mr. Putin is hardly alone in inviting foreign leaders to his parades. The goal, in part, is to project grandeur. 普京并不是唯一邀请外国领导人参加阅兵的人。在某种程度上，邀请外国领导人是为了营造宏伟的氛围。 “That’s why the N.F.L. likes celebrities at the Super Bowl,” said Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at Middlebury Institute of International Studies. 明德国际问题研究所东亚防扩散项目主任杰弗里·刘易斯说，“这就是NFL喜欢邀请名人参加超级碗活动的原因。” French leaders have made an art of it. From Emmanuel Macron to Nicolas Sarkozy, they frequently invite prominent foreign leaders to their military parades — especially the ones they wish to court. 法国领导人们把这当成了一门艺术。从马克龙到萨科齐，他们经常邀请外国著名领导人参加他们的阅兵式——尤其是那些他们想讨好的人。 During Mr. Trump’s first term, President Emmanuel Macron invited him to the Bastille Day parade in 2017, hoping to maintain dialogue after the American leader pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement. 在特朗普第一任期内，法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙邀请他参加2017年的巴士底日阅兵，希望在这位美国领导人让美国退出巴黎气候协定后仍然保持对话。 Mr. Trump returned home feeling good about the French — “He’s a great guy,” he said of Mr. Macron — and about military parades. So good that he wanted one of his own, he said. 回国后，特朗普对法国人感到很满意——“他是个很棒的人，”他在谈到马克龙时说——对阅兵也很满意。他说，太棒了，他自己也想要一个。 That time, the Pentagon was able to dissuade him. This year is another story. 那一次，五角大楼劝住了他。今年则是另一番景象。 Displays of might 展示力量 平壤的朝鲜战争结束70周年阅兵式，2023年7月 Military parades are, first and foremost, a show of power, and no one may understand that better than North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un. 阅兵首先是一种权力展示，没有人比朝鲜领导人金正恩更了解这一点。 The parades there are a rare window into a famously closed-off country, and an opportunity for the regime to show its most advanced weapons to adversaries. For years, Mr. Kim has used them to let the world know how far his nuclear program has advanced. 那里的阅兵是了解这个以封闭著称的国家的难得窗口，也是这个政权向对手展示其最先进武器的一个机会。多年来，金正恩一直利用阅兵向世界展示其核计划的进展。 Some experts believe that North Korea has paraded trucks with empty missile silos or nonfunctional equipment. But in the world of propaganda, that does not really matter. 一些专家认为，朝鲜阅兵式中的卡车上装的是空的导弹发射管或不能使用的设备。但在政治宣传的世界里，这并不重要。 “These parades often parade fiction more than fact,” said John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Modern War Institute. “You can have obsolete tanks, undertrained soldiers and failing logistics, but the image is what matters. In fear societies, perception is power.” “这些阅兵往往是虚构，而不是事实，”现代战争研究所城市战争研究主任约翰·斯宾塞说。“你可以拥有过时的坦克，训练不足的士兵和问题重重的后勤，但形象才是最重要的。在恐惧社会里，感知就是力量。” While Mr. Kim often likes to showcase his latest military advancements, China makes an impression through sheer volume. 金正恩经常喜欢展示他最新的军事进步，中国则通过庞大的数量给人留下深刻的印象。 Its 2019 National Day parade stretched for miles down the avenue in front of Tiananmen Square. It featured more than 500 pieces of military equipment, including tanks, ICBMs and hypersonic drones. 2019年国庆阅兵队伍在天安门广场前的大街上绵延数公里，展示了500多件军事装备，包括坦克、洲际弹道导弹和高超音速无人机。 天安门广场，2019年10月 How Hwee Young/EPA, via Shutterstock It is an unmistakable message, intended in part for Taiwan, which Beijing has designs on, and its backer, the United States, said Scott Kennedy, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “That is meant to be flashing red lights to the rest of the world, including their adversaries, about China’s capabilities,” Mr. Kennedy said. 战略与国际研究中心高级顾问甘思德(Scott Kennedy)说，这是一个明确无误的信息，在一定程度上是针对北京所图谋的台湾及台湾的支持者美国。“这意在向包括对手在内的世界其他国家亮起关于中国能力的红灯，”甘思德说。 Intimidating choreography 恐吓性的阅兵式编排 卡拉沃沃州，2024年6月 Formations of soldiers marching in perfect sync are a hallmark of every military parade. 整齐划一的士兵列队行进是所有阅兵式的标志。 The message is not subtle: These are disciplined troops, well-trained and ready to defend their homeland. For citizens at home, it stirs up pride; for potential adversaries abroad, it may give pause. 这样的信息并不隐晦：这些部队纪律严明，训练有素，随时准备保卫祖国。对于国内的公民来说，这激起了他们的自豪感；对于国外的潜在对手来说，这可能会让他们望而却步。 Some countries incorporate acrobatic performances by soldiers, showcasing specialized skills. 有些国家还会加入士兵的特技表演，展示他们的专业技能。 Many countries take to the skies for their parades, wowing crowds with tightly coordinated aircraft flyovers. 许多国家的阅兵式是在天空中进行的，飞机的飞行表演配合默契，令观众叹为观止。 Given the striking spectacle of aerial displays, it is not surprising that the Pentagon has arranged for some 50 helicopters to take part in the parade in Washington. 考虑到空中表演的壮观场面，五角大楼安排了大约50架直升机参加在华盛顿举行的阅兵式，也就不足为奇了。 Faces of power 权力的面孔 2019年北京阅兵式上赞颂中国发展的花车。 Sometimes, it is not just a country projecting strength at a parade. 有时，在阅兵式上展示实力的不仅仅是国家。 At some military parades — especially those staged by authoritarian regimes — a political leader is front and center. Parade participants carry posters, floats and banners with the leader’s image. These are visual symbols of loyalty intended to glorify the leader and suggest that the nation’s strength is inseparable from the leader’s personal authority. 在一些阅兵式上，特别是在威权政权举行的阅兵式上，政治领导人是最显眼的焦点。游行参与者手持印有领导人头像的海报、物品和横幅。这些是忠诚的视觉象征，意在颂扬领袖，暗示国家的力量与领袖的个人权威密不可分。 Unlike some authoritarian leaders, Mr. Putin does not have his face appear on banners or posters during military parades. He opts for a more subtle display of loyalty: the orange-and-black ribbon. 与一些威权领导人不同，普京的面孔不会出现在阅兵式上的横幅或海报上。他选择了一种更微妙的表达忠诚的方式：橙黑相间的丝带。 Known as the St. George ribbon, it has long been used to honor war veterans, but more recently has become a symbol of support for Mr. Putin’s foreign policy — his war in Ukraine. 这些所谓的圣乔治丝带长期以来一直被用来纪念退伍军人，但最近却象征着支持普京的对外政策——他对乌克兰的战争。 Western democracies generally avoid the glorification of their leaders. The absence of their images at parades signify the separation of military and political power. 西方民主国家通常避免颂扬其领导人。阅兵式上不会有他们的画像，这标志着军事和政治权力的分离。 It remains to be seen how the parade will unfold in Washington, but Mr. Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies believes that Mr. Trump may be seeking a personal boost. 华盛顿的阅兵式将如何展开还有待观察，但战略与国际研究中心的甘思德认为，特朗普可能是在寻求个人支持。 “It’s possible that he hopes that in some ways people’s respect for the military and its capabilities rubs off on him,” Mr. Kennedy said. 甘思德说：“他可能希望人们对军队及其能力的尊重能在某种程度上让他沾光。” 本文顶部的照片来自Greg Baker/法新社 — Getty Images（中国）、Kns Korean News Agency/路透社（朝鲜）和 Rayner Pena R/EPA（通过 Shutterstock[委内瑞拉]提供）。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年6月13日中国的一家半导体工厂。多年来，美国一直试图阻碍中国制造尖端计算机芯片的能力。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images For years, officials in Washington have used export controls to slow China’s ability to develop cutting-edge technologies, especially ones with military applications like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. 多年来，华盛顿的官员一直利用出口管制手段来限制中国发展尖端技术的能力，特别是那些具有军事用途的技术，比如半导体和人工智能。 Over the past decade, these export controls have driven a wedge between the world’s two largest economies. 过去十年间，这些出口管制措施在世界两个最大经济体之间制造了裂痕。 When officials from the United States and China met this week in London to try to work out their differences over trade, export controls were again front and center. 本周，美中官员在伦敦会晤，试图解决两国在贸易上的分歧，出口管制再次成为核心议题。 “In eight years of negotiating with the Chinese, I have never had a meeting where they didn’t want to talk about export controls,” Jamieson Greer, the United States Trade Representative, said on Tuesday. 美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔周二表示：“在我与中方八年的谈判中，他们没有一次是不想讨论出口管制问题的。” It is not clear what actions U.S. officials agreed to take in exchange for China easing its exports of rare earth metals — a key sticking point for Washington. But the pillars of U.S. export controls to slow the flow of advanced technology to China appear to remain intact. 目前尚不清楚美国官员承诺采取哪些行动来换取中国放宽稀土金属的出口——这是华盛顿方面的关键诉求。但美国为限制先进技术流向中国而设立的出口管制体系似乎并无改变。 How did President Trump first use export controls? 那么，特朗普总统当初是如何开始使用出口管制这个工具的呢？ During his first term, Mr. Trump, asserting that China had ripped off the United States, used export controls as one tool among many in his effort to correct imbalances of trade and manufacturing. 在第一个任期里，特朗普声称中国占了美国的便宜，于是将出口管制作为纠正贸易与制造业失衡的众多工具之一。 Mr. Trump kicked off a trade war with Beijing in 2018 when he put tariffs on solar panels imported from China. The ensuing tit-for-tat tariffs ranged from 15 to 30 percent, and soon encompassed airplanes, cars and other goods. 2018年，特朗普对从中国进口的太阳能电池板征收关税，由此打响了对华贸易战。随后实施的报复性关税税率介于15%至30%之间，并迅速涵盖了飞机、汽车等商品。 The Trump administration first used export controls to impede the development of a Chinese tech company in 2018, when it barred American firms from selling to the Chinese electronics firm ZTE. 特朗普政府首次动用出口管制手段遏制中国科技企业发展是在2018年，当时它禁止美国企业向中国电子制造商中兴通讯销售产品。 The Commerce Department under President Barack Obama had taken a similar approach several years earlier, when it said ZTE had violated U.S. sanctions on Iran. The Trump administration said ZTE had failed to address the problem. Mr. Trump lifted the ban after ZTE agreed to pay a $1 billion fine. 多年前，奥巴马政府的商务部就曾采取过类似手段——指控中兴通讯违反了美国对伊朗的制裁。特朗普政府称中兴通讯未能解决问题，最终在其同意支付10亿美元罚款后解除了禁令。 Then in 2019, the Trump administration added the telecommunications giant Huawei to a trade blacklist that barred U.S. companies from selling parts to the company. 随后在2019年，特朗普政府将电信巨头华为列入贸易黑名单，禁止美国企业向其供应零部件。 Before he left office, President Trump struck an agreement for China to buy $200 billion worth of U.S. exports. A report later found that China came nowhere close to fulfilling the terms of the deal. 在卸任前，特朗普总统达成了一项协议：中国将购买价值2000亿美元的美国商品。但后续的报告发现，中国远远未能履行该协议的条款。 荷兰光刻机巨头阿斯麦生产的尖端芯片制造设备。美国政府成功游说荷兰政府，禁止该公司向中国出口高端光刻机。 How did the Biden administration build on them? 那么拜登政府又是如何在此基础上进一步加码的？ President Joseph R. Biden Jr. substantially expanded Washington’s use of export controls. The goal shifted from targeting specific Chinese firms to constraining China’s overall advancement in technologies with military uses. 拜登总统大幅升级了华盛顿运用出口管制的力度。其政策目标已从针对个别中国企业，转向遏制中国在具有军事用途技术方面的整体进步。 The Biden administration repeatedly tightened the export controls to cut off China’s nascent ability to make its own chips. It barred companies from selling certain chips to Chinese clients if they had been made using U.S. products or software. 拜登政府多次收紧出口管制，以扼杀中国初现雏形的芯片自主生产能力。它禁止美国企业向中国客户出售任何使用美国产品或软件制造的特定芯片， Mr. Biden also expanded a push begun under the Trump administration to pressure companies in allied nations to stop selling equipment to Chinese chip firms, including the Dutch technology company ASML, the only maker of complex lithography machines used to make cutting-edge computer chips. 拜登还扩大了特朗普政府时期开始的一项努力——向盟友的企业施压，要求它们停止向中国芯片公司出售设备，其中就包括荷兰的科技企业阿斯麦，它是制造尖端计算机芯片所用的复杂光刻机的唯一生产商。 “The Biden administration declared a plan to hold back China as a whole in specific areas,” said Graham Webster, an academic focused on geopolitics and technology at Stanford. “That was a big shift.” 斯坦福大学研究地缘政治与技术领域的学者格雷厄姆·韦伯斯特表示：“拜登政府宣布了一项在特定领域全面遏制中国的计划。这标志着重大战略转向。” What has President Trump done during this term? 那么特朗普总统本届任期有何动作？ Since taking office a second time in January, Mr. Trump has ended a sweeping rule governing how American-made A.I. chips could be shared with foreign countries that was put in place at the end of Mr. Biden’s term. Trump administration officials have said they will replace it, but it is not clear what the new rule could look like. 自1月再度就职以来，特朗普终止了拜登政府末期制定的关于美制人工智能芯片对外共享的全面管制规定。特朗普政府官员表示将出台替代政策，但新规的具体内容尚不明朗。 U.S. officials have also taken steps to crack down on the flow of chips to China from America’s leading chip maker, Nvidia. The company had responded to the Biden administration’s export controls by making one of its chips less powerful to fall below the government’s performance thresholds. In April, Nvidia disclosed that U.S. officials were requiring a license for future sales of those chips to China, forcing the company to take a $5.5 billion hit on inventory it had planned to sell. 美国官员还采取措施，打击美国领先芯片制造商英伟达流向中国的芯片。该公司曾通过降低某款芯片性能，使其低于政府设定的门槛，来应对拜登政府的出口管制。今年4月，英伟达披露，美国官员要求未来向中国销售这些芯片必须获得许可证，导致英伟达对其原本计划出售的库存计提55亿美元损失。 In April, the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party opened an investigation into Nvidia’s sale of chips across Asia to assess whether the U.S. chip maker knowingly provided key technology to the Chinese A.I. start-up DeepSeek, potentially in violation of U.S. rules. 同月，美国众议院中共问题特设委员会对英伟达在亚洲销售芯片展开调查，以评估它是否涉嫌故意向中国人工智能初创企业深度求索提供了关键技术——此举可能违反了美国的技术管制法规。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
NIRAJ CHOKSHI, CHRISTINE CHUNG2025年6月13日周四在印度艾哈迈达巴德坠机现场的印度航空飞机尾部。 Ajit Solanki/Associated Press Plane crash investigations are incredibly complex, and it can take months or even years to identify what went wrong. But video and photos of the Air India crash on Thursday prompted some early thoughts from aviation experts. 空难调查异常复杂，可能需要数月甚至数年的时间才能查明原因。但周四印度航空坠机事件的视频和照片引发了航空专家的一些初步分析。 A widely shared video of the crash showed the Boeing 787 Dreamliner descending over buildings with its nose pointed upward, an unusual position, said John Cox, a former airline pilot and chief executive of Safety Operating Systems, a consulting firm. 前飞行员、咨询公司安全操作系统的首席执行官约翰·考克斯说，一段被广泛分享的坠机视频显示，这架波音787梦想客机在机头上仰的异常姿态下越过建筑物坠落。 The plane’s position looks as if “it should be climbing, and in fact it’s descending,” he said. “The question is why.” 飞机的姿态看起来“应该是在爬升，实际上却是在下降”，他说。“问题是为什么。” Mr. Cox and other experts cautioned against jumping to conclusions. Planes and the aviation system have many redundancies to prevent a single problem from leading to a calamity. As a result, crashes are typically caused by multiple failures, which can include equipment malfunctions, improper maintenance, bird strikes or pilot error. Early hypotheses often are ruled out during lengthy, technical crash investigations. 考克斯和其他专家警告不要妄下结论。飞机和航空系统有许多冗余设计，以防单一问题引发空难。因此，坠机通常是由多种失效叠加所致，可能涉及设备故障、维护不当、鸟撞或飞行员操作失误等因素。在漫长的技术性事故调查中，早期的假设往往会被排除。 Officials looking into the crash will have no shortage of questions to ask, said Greg Feith, a former investigator at the National Transportation Safety Board. 美国国家运输安全委员会前调查员格雷格·费斯说，调查此次事故的官员会有很多问题要问。 “Did they properly configure the airplane when it took off? What was occurring with them? Was there a loss of thrust?” he asked. “Was there fuel contamination? Fuel starvation where both engines weren’t getting fuel that would have caused a loss of thrust on both engines?” “飞机起飞时配置是否正确？飞行过程中发生了什么？是不是失去了推力？”他问。“燃油是否遭到污染？是不是两个引擎都没有得到燃油？这会导致两个引擎都失去推力。” The N.T.S.B., the lead U.S. agency in crash investigations, said it would send a team to India to help with the investigation, which will be led by India’s aviation authority. The Federal Aviation Administration said it would provide technical expertise and assistance, and its counterpart in Britain, where the flight was headed, made a similar offer. 美国负责空难调查的主要机构美国国家运输安全委员会表示，将派遣一个小组前往印度协助调查，调查将由印度的民航当局牵头。美国联邦航空管理局表示，将提供技术支援，航班目的地英国的相关部门也做出了类似承诺。 In the video, the plane’s descent appeared to be controlled. That suggests that the pilots may have been trying to slow it down, said Ben Berman, a safety consultant who is also a former airline pilot and federal crash investigator in the United States. 在视频中，飞机的下降似乎得到了控制。安全顾问本·伯曼说，这表明飞行员可能一直在试图让飞机减速。他曾任民航飞行员和美国联邦空难调查员。 “Any reduction you can make to the airspeed at impact is going to have a big positive effect,” he said. “It’s consistent with that, but it could also mean any number of other things.” “任何能够降低飞机撞击速度的操作都会产生显著的积极影响，”他说。“这与视频看到的相符，但也存在其他多种可能性。” Heat is another consideration. The weather topped 100 degrees in Ahmedabad, the city from which the plane departed on Thursday. High temperatures make takeoffs more difficult because engines produce less thrust and warm air is less dense, making it harder for the airplane to generate lift. 高温是另一个需要考虑的因素。飞机周四起飞的城市艾哈迈达巴德的气温高达38摄氏度左右。高温会增加起飞难度，因为发动机产生的推力会随之降低，热空气的密度更低，这使得飞机更难产生升力。 While the full investigation could take more than a year, corrective actions could potentially arrive sooner, Mr. Feith said. 费斯说，虽然全面调查可能需要一年多的时间，但纠正措施可能会更早出台。 “The whole purpose of accident investigation is to identify safety critical issues — if there’s a problem with the airline, the crew, the airplane itself — you want to get those safety critical issues identified and corrective actions implemented sooner rather than later,” he said. “事故调查的全部目的是找出重大安全隐患——无论是航空公司、机组人员，还是飞机本身的问题——都必须尽快查明并采取整改措施，”他说。 The plane’s black boxes should provide early insights, too. The information on the flight data recorder includes time, altitude, airspeed and heading. The cockpit voice recorder can offer clues about the moments leading up to the crash, including what the pilots were saying, engine noises, stall warnings or other equipment sounds. 飞机的黑匣子应该也将为初步调查提供关键线索。飞行数据记录仪上的信息包括时间、高度、空速和航向。驾驶舱语音记录器能还原坠机前的关键时刻，包括飞行员说了什么、引擎异响、失速警告或其他设备的声音。 “If they functioned correctly, they’ll give a tremendous amount of information, because the 787 has a huge number of parameters recorded,” Mr. Berman said. 伯曼说：“若黑匣子完好，将提供海量数据。波音787记录的飞行参数极为详尽。” That data could be recovered and assessed preliminarily within days, Mr. Cox said. 考克斯说，这些数据可以在几天内恢复并进行初步评估。 The footage of the plane’s descent is shaky and grainy, and it wasn’t clear whether the wing’s trailing edge flaps were properly extended as they typically would be when a plane is taking off, experts said. Those flaps, as well as slats at the front of the wing, are typically extended during ascent to provide more surface area and alter the shape of the wing to help lift the plane at relatively low speeds. 专家说，尽管飞机下降的画面不稳定、不清晰，也不清楚机翼后缘襟翼是否如正常起飞时那样适当地展开。这些襟翼以及机翼前部的板条，通常在飞机上升过程中伸展开来，以提供更大的表面积，改变机翼的形状，帮助飞机在相对较低的速度下上升。 “In the video, you see the landing gear is still down, but the flaps look to be in a relatively up position,” Mr. Feith said. “That will have to be examined. Normally on a large aircraft like that, you need to use some level of flap deployment. If the airplane was not properly configured, that can present a performance issue.” “在视频中，你可以看到起落架仍然是放下的，但襟翼看起来处于一个相对向上的位置，”费斯说。“这一点必须加以研究。通常这样的大型飞机需要襟翼一定程度的展开。如果飞机配置不当，就会出现性能问题。” Mr. Berman said that typically pilots retract landing gear, which includes the plane’s wheels, quickly after taking off because it can create drag as the plane tries to climb, but not always. The brakes on a larger, heavier jet like the Dreamliner can get very hot, and sometimes pilots may leave the landing gear down for a bit to cool them off, he added. 伯曼说，通常情况下，飞行员会在起飞后迅速收起起落架（包括飞机的机轮），因为它会在飞机试图爬升时产生阻力，但并非总是如此。他还说，像梦想客机这样更大、更重的飞机的刹车可能会变得非常热，飞行员有时会延迟收起起落架以辅助散热。 “It might have been intentional,” he said. “It might have been that they had a massive problem right after takeoff, and they may have neglected to raise the gear. We’ll need to know a lot more about the airplane to comment on this intelligently.” “这可能是故意的，”他说。“也可能是他们在起飞后出现了严重问题，导致来不及将起落架收起。我们需要有更多的飞行数据，才能做出准确判断。” The crash on Thursday has some similarity to a 1987 one on Northwest Airlines Flight 255, which crashed in Michigan after the plane’s pilots failed to extend its wing flaps and slats for takeoff. After lifting off, that plane rolled to the left and right and then hit light poles and a rental car building before crashing, killing all but one person on board and several people on the ground. Despite some broad similarities, experts cautioned that the Air India crash could have been from any number of causes. 周四的空难与1987年西北航空公司255号航班的坠机事件有一些相似之处，当时该飞机在密歇根州坠毁，原因是飞行员未能展开机翼襟翼和板条起飞。起飞后，飞机左右剧烈摇晃，撞到电线杆和租车公司大楼，然后坠毁，机上除一人外全部遇难，地面上还有数人罹难。尽管存在一些大体上的相似之处，但专家提醒说，印度航空的这起事故可能有多种成因。 James Glanz对本文有报道贡献。 Niraj Chokshi是《纽约时报》记者，负责撰写有关航空、铁路和其他运输行业的文章。 Christine Chung是《纽约时报》记者，报道航空和消费者旅行。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
HISAKO UENO, JOHN YOON2025年6月13日日本防卫省周日发布的照片显示，一架中国战斗机周日在太平洋上空靠近一架日本飞机。 Japan Ministry of Defense Japanese defense officials said on Thursday that a Chinese fighter jet had flown abnormally close to a Japanese military plane over international waters in the Pacific Ocean last weekend, raising concerns about China’s growing military actions in the region. 日本防卫省官员周四表示，一架中国战斗机上周末曾与一架在太平洋国际水域上空的日本军机异常接近，引发人们对中国在该地区的军事行动日益频繁的担忧。 Japan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement on Thursday that a Chinese J-15 fighter jet had made a peculiar approach to a Japanese P-3C patrol aircraft conducting surveillance over the Pacific. 日本防卫省周四在声明中表示，一架中国歼-15战斗机非正常地逼近一架正在太平洋上空执行侦察任务的日本P-3C巡逻机。 The Chinese jet flew as close as 150 feet next to the Japanese plane on Saturday, and cut in front within 3,000 feet of the nose on Sunday, introducing the likelihood of a crash, the Defense Ministry said. 防卫省表示，该中国战斗机上周六与日本飞机的最近距离只有约45米，周日又从日机前方约900米处掠过，引发意外碰撞的风险。 The Chinese fighter jet had originated from the Shandong, one of the two aircraft carriers that China had sent into the Pacific Ocean last weekend to conduct exercises, the first the carriers had done together so far from the Chinese coast. The exercises displayed Beijing’s growing military reach. 这架中国战斗机来自山东舰，中国上周末出动两艘航母前往太平洋进行演习，山东舰是其中一艘。这是中国航母首次在距离本土海岸如此之远的水域举行联合演习，显示出北京日益增长的军事影响力。 “Japan expressed a serious concern and requested a prevention of reoccurrence of such incidents as it could trigger accidental collisions,” Gen Nakatani, Japan’s defense minister, said in a security committee meeting at the Diet, as Japan’s Parliament is known. “日本对此表示严重关切，并要求防止此类事件再次发生，因其可能引发意外碰撞，”日本防卫大臣中谷元在日本国会举行的安全委员会会议上说。 Gen. Yoshihide Yoshida, the chief of Japan’s joint staff, told reporters on Thursday that he was concerned about the possibility of a collision between the Chinese jet, which appeared to be equipped with missiles, and the Japanese patrol aircraft. 日本统合幕僚长吉田圭秀上将周四对记者称，他对中国战机与日本巡逻机发生碰撞的可能性表示担忧，该中国战机疑似装备了导弹。 Gen. Yoshida said that it was difficult to judge the intention behind the Chinese jet’s maneuvers and whether they were a threat. He said he was wary of the broader trend of China’s increased and expanded military activities, stating that the Chinese military had been making unusual maneuvers “intermittently and continuously.” 吉田圭秀说，难以判断中国战机这种行动的背后意图，以及它们是否构成威胁。他说，他已注意到一个总体趋势，即中国不断增加和扩大军事活动，并指出中国军方已在“间歇地和持续地”做异常动作。 China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Lin Jian, said on Thursday that the two countries’ defense ministries were in communication over the near misses. But he suggested that Japan was at fault and defended China’s activity in the airspace. 中国外交部发言人林剑周四表示，两国的国防部正就险些发生碰撞的问题保持沟通。但他暗示问题出在日方，并为中国在该空域的活动进行了辩护。 “Let me stress that the close maneuvers of the Japanese airplanes against China is the fundamental reason of such a situation,” Mr. Lin said at a news conference in Beijing. “We hope that Japan will view the activities objectively and rationally.” “需要强调的是，日本舰机对中国正常军事活动进行抵近侦察，是造成海空安全风险的根源，”林剑在北京的例行记者会上说。“中方敦促日方客观理性地看待中方的活动。” In another aerial encounter involving the Chinese military, a Chinese fighter jet flew within 20 feet of an American military aircraft over the South China Sea in 2022, which the U.S. military said had nearly caused a collision. 与中国军队有关的空中相遇事件以前也发生过。2022年，一架中国战斗机曾在南中国海上空飞至距一架美国军机机头约六米的范围内，美军称这个行动险些导致两机相撞。 A crash involving a Chinese military plane was fatal in 2001, when a U.S. Navy surveillance plane collided with a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea. The crash killed the Chinese pilot and forced the American plane to make an emergency landing in China. 2001年，一架中国战斗机曾在南中国海上空与一架美国海军侦察机相撞，导致中国战机坠毁，中国飞行员死亡，美国侦察机被迫在中国紧急迫降。 Meaghan Tobin自台北对本文有报道贡献。 Hisako Ueno是常驻东京的记者/研究员，撰写日本政治、商业、劳工、性别及文化相关议题。 John Yoon是时报驻首尔记者，报道突发新闻和热门新闻。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JOHN YOON, SUHASINI RAJ2025年6月12日周四，印度艾哈迈达巴德，飞机坠毁现场的消防员。 Ajit Solanki/Associated Press An Air India flight carrying 242 passengers and crew members crashed shortly after takeoff in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad on Thursday, the airline said. 印度航空公司表示，该公司一架载有242名乘客和机组人员的航班于周四从印度西部城市艾哈迈达巴德起飞后不久坠毁。 Air India said Flight 171 from Ahmedabad to London Gatwick Airport had taken off at around 1:40 p.m. on Thursday. The aircraft was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, according to Flightradar24, a flight tracking website. There was no immediate information about survivors. 印度航空称，这架编号为171的航班原定从艾哈迈达巴德飞往伦敦盖特威克机场，于当地时间周四下午1点40分左右起飞。据飞行追踪网站Flightradar24显示，涉事飞机为波音787-8梦想客机。目前尚无有关幸存者的消息。 Onboard were 169 Indian people, 53 British, seven Portuguese and one Canadian, the airline said, adding that the injured were being taken to hospitals. 据印度航空，机上共有169名印度人、53名英国人、七名葡萄牙人和一名加拿大人。受伤人员正被送往医院救治。 The plane had been scheduled to land in London at 6:25 p.m., London Gatwick Airport said on social media. 伦敦盖特威克机场在社交媒体上表示，该航班原计划于伦敦时间下午6点25分抵达。 Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport, which the aircraft had departed, said that it was closed and that all flight operations had been suspended indefinitely. 航班起飞的萨达尔·瓦拉巴伊·帕特尔国际机场宣布机场已关闭，所有航班运营无限期暂停。 India’s minister of civil aviation, Kinjarapu Rammohan Naidu, said that rescue teams had been mobilized to the crash site. “Shocked and devastated to learn about the flight crash in Ahmedabad,” he wrote on social media. “We are on highest alert.” 印度民航部长金贾拉普·拉莫汉·奈杜表示，救援队已赶赴坠机现场。“听闻艾哈迈达巴德发生航班坠毁事件，深感震惊与悲痛，”他在社交媒体上写道，“我们已进入最高警戒状态。” Bhupendra Patel, the chief minister of Gujarat, the state where the crash occurred, said that a corridor had been set up to quickly transport injured passengers to hospitals for treatment. 坠机所在的古吉拉特邦的首席部长布潘德拉·帕特尔表示，当局已开辟专用通道，加快将伤者送往医院治疗。 Tata Group, the Indian conglomerate that owns Air India, confirmed in a social media post that Air India Flight 171 “was involved in a tragic accident today.” 印度航空所属的印度塔塔集团在社交媒体上确认，印度航空171号航班“今天发生了一起不幸事故“。 Natarajan Chandrasekaran, the chairman of Air India, said that the company was focused on “supporting all the affected people and their families” and that it was doing all it could to assist the emergency response teams at the site. 印度航空董事长纳塔拉詹·钱德拉塞卡兰表示，公司当前的重点是“为所有受影响人员及其家属提供支持”，并全力协助现场的应急救援工作。 翻译：Sammi Zheng 点击查看英文实时报道。
MICHAEL C. BENDER, MICHAEL S. SCHMIDT2025年6月12日推动调查与哈佛大学举行的一项研讨会有关，该研讨会是更广泛的“哈佛中国健康合作伙伴关系”的一部分。 Sophie Park for The New York Times Secretary of State Marco Rubio is pushing to investigate whether Harvard University violated federal sanctions by collaborating on a health insurance conference in China that may have included officials blacklisted by the U.S. government, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The New York Times. 据知情人士和《纽约时报》查阅的文件，国务卿鲁比奥正在推动调查哈佛大学是否违反了联邦制裁，因为哈佛大学在中国合作举办的医疗保险研讨会中可能有被美国政府列入黑名单的官员。 Mr. Rubio signed off on a recommendation to the Treasury Department last month to open an investigation, which experts and former Treasury officials said was an unusual attempt from a cabinet secretary to target a domestic entity for sanctions enforcement. 鲁比奥上月签署了一项建议，希望财政部展开调查。专家和前财政部官员表示，这是内阁部长推动针对本国机构的制裁执法调查的一次不同寻常的尝试。 Whether the agency within the Treasury that handles sanctions, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, opened an investigation in response was unclear — but such a move could expose Harvard to significant legal risks. Mr. Rubio’s action is the latest example of the Trump administration’s whole-of-government approach to bringing the Ivy League university to heel. 目前尚不清楚财政部内部负责制裁的外国资产控制办公室是否已对此展开调查，但此举可能会使哈佛大学面临重大的法律风险。鲁比奥的行动是特朗普政府动用全部政府力量迫使这所常春藤盟校就范的最新例证。 President Trump has sought for months to impose his political agenda on Harvard by reshaping its curriculum, admissions and hiring processes. The effort initially relied primarily on accusations that university officials had not done enough to address antisemitism on campus. In recent weeks, however, the administration’s focus has expanded to other issues, including allegations about Harvard’s foreign ties, particularly to China. 几个月来，特朗普总统一直试图通过重塑哈佛大学的课程、招生和招聘流程，将自己的政治议程强加给哈佛。这项努力最初主要依靠指责大学官员应对校园反犹太主义问题不力。然而，最近几周，政府的关注点扩大到其他问题上，包括对哈佛大学与外国关系的指控，尤其是与中国的关系。 A potential sanctions investigation demonstrates how Harvard’s problems with the government extend far beyond questions of whether the school will continue receiving federal funding. Mr. Trump and his allies appear determined to upend nearly all aspects of the institution, which has long symbolized the pinnacle of higher learning in the country and attracted influential scholars from around the globe. 一项潜在的制裁调查表明，哈佛大学与政府的问题远远超出了学校是否将继续接受联邦资助的范畴。特朗普及其盟友似乎决心颠覆这所学校的几乎所有方面，长期以来，该校一直象征着美国高等教育的巅峰，吸引着全球各地有影响力的学者。 A spokesman for the Treasury Department said the agency takes any allegations of sanctions violations “extremely seriously” but declined to comment on a possible or pending sanctions investigation. A State Department spokeswoman declined to comment. 财政部发言人表示该部“非常认真”对待任何违反制裁的指控，但拒绝就可能或正在进行的制裁调查置评。国务院发言人拒绝置评。 The health insurance conference, known as the Training Course on Health Financing, began in 2019 as a joint venture between Harvard, the World Bank and the National Health Insurance Administration, the arm of the Chinese government that oversees the state-backed health care system, according to the university’s website. Over the years, training has focused on topics like “innovative provider payment methods” and “pricing and payment for internet health.” 据哈佛大学网站介绍，这一名为“卫生筹资旗舰项目培训班”的医疗保险研讨会始于2019年，是哈佛大学、世界银行和中国国家医疗保障局（中国政府负责监督国家支持的医疗系统的部门）的合作项目。多年来，培训的重点包括“创新的提供商支付方式”和“互联网健康服务的定价和支付”等主题。 The university has promoted the event, which in some years has drawn upward of 200 people, as a key part of a broader “Harvard China Health Partnership” inside its T.H. Chan School for Public Health. University officials have previously described the event as aimed at expanding access to high-quality health care for 1.4 billion people in China. 哈佛大学将这一活动作为其陈曾熙公共卫生学院更广泛的“哈佛中国健康合作伙伴关系”的重要组成部分来宣传。在某些年份，这一活动可吸引200多人参加。大学官员此前曾表示，此次活动旨在为中国14亿人提供高质量的医疗服务。 Behind Mr. Rubio’s sanctions push is the presence of officials from a Chinese state-run group called the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps at some, if not all, of the conferences since 2019. The X.P.C.C. is known in northwest China for building towns and running its own university and hospital systems. The group is also responsible for systemic human rights abuses against Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in the region, according to the U.S. government. 鲁比奥之所以推动调查哈佛是否违反制裁，是因为一个名为新疆生产建设兵团的中国国有集团的官员自2019年以来至少参加了部分、甚至可能是全部相关会议。新疆生产建设兵团在中国西北地区以建设城镇、经营自己的大学和医院系统而闻名。据美国政府称，该组织还对该地区系统性侵犯维吾尔和其他少数民族人权的行为负有责任。 The Chinese government formed the X.P.C.C. more than seven decades ago as a paramilitary organization tasked with settling a distant region with many ethnic groups and some militias. The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on the group in 2020. 中国政府在70多年前组建了该兵团，作为一个准军事组织，其任务是安置一个偏远地区的多民族部队和一些民兵。美国财政部于2020年对该组织实施了制裁。 Harvard has been conducting an internal review into the X.P.C.C.’s involvement at the conference, but it was unclear what details had been turned up, according to two people familiar with the inquiry who insisted on anonymity to discuss internal university deliberations. 哈佛大学一直在对新疆生产建设兵团参与会议的情况进行内部审查，但据两名熟悉调查的人士透露，目前还不清楚发现了哪些细节。两人因谈及哈佛大学的内部讨论而坚持要求匿名。 A Harvard spokesman declined to comment. 哈佛大学发言人拒绝置评。 An archived version of a Harvard webpage about the inaugural conference noted that participants in the training included the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. That event occurred one year before the U.S. government targeted the group for sanctions, but mention of the X.P.C.C. has since been deleted. 哈佛大学关于首届研讨会的网页存档版本指出，参加培训的人员包括新疆生产建设兵团。此次研讨会发生在美国政府将该兵团列为制裁对象的一年前，但此后提及该兵团的内容已被删除。 A Chinese government website about the 2023 conference shows that participants that year — three years after the U.S. imposed sanctions on the X.P.C.C. — included Chinese health officials, scholars from “top universities,” such as Harvard, and representatives of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. 中国政府网站上关于2023年研讨会的资料显示，在美国对新疆生产建设兵团实施制裁三年后，那一年的与会者包括中国卫生官员、哈佛等“顶尖大学”的学者和该兵团的代表。 Still, the X.P.C.C.’s involvement in the conference only recently gained attention from Trump allies, after a report about Harvard’s links to China published on April 22 by Strategy Risks, a New York-based intelligence company specializing in corporate exposure to China. The report was funded by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank that has advised Republican policymakers. 不过，该组织参与研讨会是最近才引起特朗普盟友的注意的，4月22日，专门研究企业与中国关系的纽约情报公司“战略风险”发布了一份关于哈佛大学与中国关系的报告。该报告由曾为共和党决策者提供建议的保守派智库曼哈顿研究所资助。 Since then, the report’s details have been highlighted in news articles from conservative media outlets and public statements from Republican officials. 从那以后，保守派媒体的新闻文章和共和党官员的公开声明都强调了这份报告的细节。 On May 15, Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas cited the Strategy Risks report in a letter to Mr. Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, urging an investigation into Harvard’s public health school. On May 19, Republicans on the House education committee sent a request for records to Harvard about, in part, the X.P.C.C.’s involvement in the conference. 5月15日，阿肯色州参议员汤姆·科顿在给鲁比奥和财政部长贝森特的一封信中引用了“战略风险”的这份报告，敦促对哈佛大学公共卫生学院进行调查。5月19日，众议院教育委员会的共和党人要求哈佛提供记录，其中部分内容涉及新疆生产建设兵团参与会议的情况。 On May 22, the Department of Homeland Security said that Harvard had “hosted and trained” members of the group and included a link to a Fox News article about the House Republican records request in its news release. 5月22日，国土安全部称，哈佛“接待并培训”该组织的成员，并在新闻稿中附上了福克斯新闻一篇关于众议院共和党人要求记录的文章的链接。 国务卿鲁比奥（左）上个月签署了一项建议，要求由贝森特（右）领导的财政部对哈佛大学展开调查。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Investigations of potential sanctions violations could take months or years, while penalties range from a cautionary letter from the government to significant financial damages. 对潜在的违反制裁行为的调查可能需要数月或数年时间，而处罚可以是政府的一封警告信，也可以是巨额的经济损失。 Other cabinet secretaries — like the secretary of state — often coordinate with the Treasury secretary on foreign individuals, groups or countries that they believe should be subject to sanctions. But it is atypical for the nation’s chief diplomat to single out an American individual, group or company for a potential violation, according to John Smith, a former director of the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. 其他内阁部长——如国务卿——经常与财政部长就他们认为应该受到制裁的外国个人、团体或国家进行协调。但据美国财政部外国资产控制办公室前主任约翰·史密斯表示，美国首席外交官专门指出某美国个人、团体或公司可能违反了相关规定是十分罕见的。 Sanctions investigations, Mr. Smith said, are typically started after reporting in media or from companies, the intelligence community or law enforcement. 史密斯说，制裁调查通常是在媒体或公司、情报界或执法部门报告后开始的。 “I wouldn’t say it’s wrong or improper,” Mr. Smith said. “I would just say it’s unusual and not the usual course of business.” “我不会说这是错的或不合适的，”史密斯说。“我只想说，这是不寻常的，不是通常的做法。” Typically, after learning of a potential violation, the Office of Foreign Assets Control decides whether to open an investigation. If the office ultimately finds wrongdoing, the Treasury could impose civil penalties and recommend that the Justice Department pursue criminal charges. In particularly egregious instances, companies can be hit with civil and criminal penalties that come with fines as high as billions of dollars. 通常情况下，在了解到潜在的违规行为后，外国资产控制办公室会决定是否展开调查。如果该办公室最终发现存在不当行为，财政部可能会处以民事处罚，并建议司法部提起刑事指控。在特别恶劣的情况下，涉事机构可能会受到民事和刑事处罚，罚款可高达数十亿美元。 Michael C. Bender是时报政治记者，负责报道特朗普总统、“让美国恢复伟大荣光“运动以及其他联邦和州选举。 Michael S. Schmidt是时报调查记者，报道华盛顿新闻。他的工作重点是追踪和解释备受瞩目的联邦调查新闻。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
ANA SWANSON2025年6月12日本周的谈判令外界质疑，特朗普总统过去几个月对中国采取的强硬贸易策略究竟取得了什么实质性成果。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times After two days of tense negotiations, the United States and China appear to have walked back from the brink of a devastating economic conflict — maybe. 经过两天紧张的谈判，美中两国似乎已经从一场毁灭性经济冲突的边缘走了回来——也许吧。 Officials from the two countries reached a handshake agreement in the early hours of Wednesday in London to remove some of the harmful measures they had used to target each others’ economies as part of a clash that rapidly intensified in recent months. 周三凌晨，两国官员在伦敦达成了握手协议，同意取消部分在近期冲突迅速升级过程中，为打击对方经济而采取的有害措施。 It remains unclear whether the truce will hold — or crumble like one struck in May did. Even if the agreement does prove durable, its big accomplishment appears to be merely returning the countries to a status quo from several months ago, before Mr. Trump provoked tensions with China in early April by ramping up tariffs on goods it produces. 然而，此次休战能否持续仍属未知，5月达成的类似协议就曾迅速瓦解。即使该协议被证明是持久的，其最大成就似乎也只是让两国回到了几个月前的状态，也就是特朗普在4月初对中国制造提高关税，从而引发紧张关系之前。 “It seems like we’re negotiating in circles,” said Myron Brilliant, a senior counselor at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group and former executive vice president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “我们的谈判似乎是在绕圈子，”奥尔布赖特石桥集团高级顾问、前美国商会执行副会长薄迈伦(Myron Brilliant)说。 “You escalate, you de-escalate,” he added. “At the end of the day we’re not really further along.” 他还表示，“升级、降级，说到底，我们并没有走得更远。” As a result of this week’s negotiations, tariffs will stay where they are. Further details are scant, other than the likely rollback of aggressive policies the two countries adopted since May. 本周谈判的结果是，现行关税将维持不变。除了两国可能收回自5月以来采取的激进政策外，进一步的细节尚不清楚。 China is expected to loosen restrictions on exports of minerals that had threatened to cripple an array of American manufacturers. The United States will in return relax new limits that it placed on its own exports of technology and products, as well as walk back threats to cancel visas for Chinese students in the United States. 预计中国将放宽对矿产出口的限制，这些限制曾威胁到众多美国制造商。作为交换，美国将放松对本国技术和产品出口的新限制，并收回取消中国学生赴美签证的威胁。 The countries did not announce progress on other trade issues. Those matters would be left for future discussions, American officials said. 两国没有宣布在其他贸易问题上取得进展。美国官员表示，这些问题将留待后续磋商。 For many analysts, the London meetings raised questions about what exactly had been gained by Mr. Trump’s aggressive trade tactics against China over the past few months, or whether his actions had ultimately backfired. 对许多分析人士来说，伦敦会谈引发了一些问题，即特朗普过去几个月对中国采取的强硬贸易策略究竟取得了什么实质性成果，或者他的举措是否最终适得其反。 “What exactly are we getting that we weren’t already getting before?” said Veronique de Rugy, a senior research fellow with the Mercatus Center, a libertarian think tank. “This deal suggests there was never a real plan.” “我们到底得到了什么以前没有得到的东西？”自由派智库莫卡特斯中心高级研究员维罗妮克·德·鲁吉说。“这份协议恰恰说明，从来就没有一个真正的方案。” Trump administration officials have argued that the United States came out on top from the recent escalations, saying that the punitive measures they issued in response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports show that the country has plenty of its own firepower. In recent weeks, the United States limited access to a range of software, products, chemicals and technologies, including critical elements China uses to develop advanced chips and jet engines. 特朗普政府官员辩称，美国在最近的冲突升级中占了上风，指出针对中国限制稀土出口而出台的惩罚性措施表明，美国拥有充足的反制手段。最近几周，美国限制了一系列软件、产品、化学品和技术的对华出口，包括中国用于开发先进芯片和喷气发动机的关键材料。 The administration has also pointed to the strength of the U.S. economy and limited inflation to argue that even very high tariffs on Chinese imports have had few negative effects. 政府还以美国经济强劲、通货膨胀有限为由，声称即便对中国进口产品征收很高的关税，也未产生显著的负面影响。 Other forecasters have not been so sanguine. In a report this week, the World Bank said that U.S. tariffs would set the stage for the weakest decade of global growth since the 1960s. 其他预测者没有这么乐观。世界银行在本周的一份报告中表示，美国的关税将使全球经济增长进入自20世纪60年代以来最疲软的十年。 Mr. Trump proclaimed on social media Wednesday morning that “our deal with China is done” and that the “relationship is excellent,” though he acknowledged that the agreement was still subject to final approval by himself and his counterpart, Xi Jinping. 特朗普周三上午在社交媒体上宣称，“我们与中国的协议已经完成”，而且两国“关系非常好”，但他承认，该协议仍有待他本人和习近平的最终批准。 “Full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China,” he wrote, in all capital letters. “Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!).” “全部磁铁和任何必要的稀土都将由中国预先供应，”他用大写字母写道。“同样，我们也将履行协议内容，包括中国学生使用我们的学院和大学（这对我来说一直没什么问题！）。” The discussions in London played out over two long days and nights and repeatedly became heated, according to two people with knowledge of the meetings. At various moments, the talks seemed as if they might fall apart, they added — a sign of the lack of trust between the two governments. 据两位知情人士透露，伦敦谈判持续了两个漫长的昼夜，多次陷入激烈交锋。他们还说，谈判多次濒临破裂，这表明两国政府之间缺乏信任。 Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, who took part in the negotiations, said that the president’s fundamental goal toward China was to “reduce the trade deficit and increase trade.” 参加谈判的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克说，总统对中国的根本目标是“减少贸易逆差，增加贸易”。 “But first we had to get, sort of, the negativity out,” he said as the talks concluded. “Now we can go forward to try to do positive trade, growing trade, and beneficial to both China and to the United States.” “但首先，我们必须消除一些负面因素，”他在会谈结束后表示。“现在我们可以推进建设性贸易，实现中美互利共赢的贸易增长。” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese embassy in Washington, said on Wednesday that the essence of relations between the two countries lies in mutual benefit and cooperation. “There are no winners in trade wars,” he added. “China does not seek conflict but will not be intimidated by one.” 中国驻华盛顿大使馆发言人刘鹏宇周三表示，两国关系的本质是互利合作。“贸易战没有赢家，”他还说。“中国不惹事，也不怕事。” Analysts and experts argued that the events of recent weeks showed that the Trump administration overplayed its hand against China. The United States has an almost immediate, economywide need for the rare earth minerals and magnets that China produces. Chinese restrictions on these exports forced carmakers and other industries to lobby the White House for relief, and eventually threatened to deplete inventories of U.S. military hardware. 分析人士和专家认为，最近几周的事态发展表明，特朗普政府对中国玩过头了。美国对中国生产的稀土矿物和磁铁有着几乎紧迫的广泛经济需求。中国对这些出口的限制迫使汽车制造商和其他行业游说白宫放宽限制，甚至可能耗尽美军装备的库存。 The restrictions that the United States put on China in return would undoubtedly prove painful for the Chinese economy, too. But some analysts emphasized that those would also inflict pain on the United States. 美国的报复性限制无疑也会给中国经济带来痛苦。但一些分析人士强调，这些措施同样会反噬美国自身。 Philip Luck, a director in the economics program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, wrote in a recent analysis that U.S. restrictions on ethane exports destined for China had particularly backfired. It forced, for example, major American energy companies to halt billions of dollars in planned exports. With ethane cut off, Chinese plants could simply burn other fuels they can obtain elsewhere — which cost more but would prevent any interruptions. 华盛顿智库战略与国际研究中心经济项目主任菲利普·拉克在最近的一份分析报告中写道，美国对中国乙烷出口的限制尤其适得其反。例如，它迫使美国主要能源公司停止数十亿美元的出口计划。随着乙烷的切断，中国的工厂可以直接使用从其他地方获得的燃料——虽然成本更高，但能确保生产不中断。 “These controls fail to clear even the lowest bar for an economic weapon,” Mr. Luck wrote. “Beyond hurting U.S. producers more than their Chinese counterparts, they undermine the administration’s own energy dominance agenda and signal to allies that the United States cannot be trusted even in supposedly apolitical commodity markets.” “这些控制措施连经济武器的最低门槛都没有达到，”拉克写道。“除了对美国生产商的伤害比对中国生产商的伤害更大之外，它们还破坏了政府自己的能源主导议程，并向盟友发出信号，表明即使在本应不涉及政治的大宗商品市场上，美国也不值得信任。” Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow at Center for Strategic and International Studies, said tariff threats and other policies had been guided by a theory in Washington that “China would buckle under pressure very quickly,” in part because its export-driven economy has been showing signs of weakness. 战略与国际研究中心高级研究员麦怡瑞(Ilaria Mazzocco)表示，关税威胁和其他政策是基于华盛顿的一种理论假设，即“中国会很快在压力下屈服”，部分原因是其出口导向型经济已经显示出疲软的迹象。 “I think what China proved is that actually it’s in a pretty strong position and it can bear a lot of pain, and perhaps actually more pain than the United States,” she added. She also said that China had also demonstrated its ability to use export controls to inflict pain on the United States in a way it had never broached before. 她还说：“我认为中国实际证明了它处于一个相当强大的地位，可以承受很多痛苦，或许可能强于美国。”她还表示，中国还展示了其利用出口管制给美国带来痛苦的能力，这是它以前从未用过的方式。 Jin Canrong, a professor of international studies at the Renmin University in Beijing, wrote in a commentary last week that rare earths were “a trump card in China’s hand.” 中国人民大学国际关系教授金灿荣上周在一篇评论文章中写道，稀土是“中国手上的一张王牌”。 “Trump should understand that pressure and threats are definitely not the right way to deal with China,” he wrote. 特朗普“应该能明白，施压和威胁绝不是同中国打交道的正确方式”，他写道。 Some analysts have also questioned the precedent that the Trump administration set by putting in play U.S. export controls, which are typically considered a matter of national security, rather than economic leverage. 一些分析人士也对特朗普政府开创美国出口管制的先例提出质疑，出口管制通常被认为属于国家安全事务，而不是经济博弈手段。 Wendy Cutler, the vice president of the Asia Society and a former U.S. trade negotiator, said that the United States “appears to have paid a heavy price” for regaining access to Chinese critical minerals and magnets. 美国前贸易谈判代表、亚洲协会副会长温迪·卡特勒说，美国为重新获得中国的关键矿产和磁铁，“似乎付出了沉重的代价”。 “These matters have been deliberately kept off the negotiating table for years given U.S. insistence that national security-related measures are not appropriate for a give-and-take,” she said. “By apparently now reversing this long-held position, the U.S. has opened the door for China that will be difficult to close.” “因为美国坚持认为，与国家安全有关的措施不适合进行讨价还价，这些问题多年来一直被刻意排除在谈判之外，”她说。“美国现在显然改变了长期以来的立场，为中国打开了一扇难以关闭的大门。” She added that China may now insist on two-way concessions on export controls in the future. “The London framework may signify an important turning point in U.S.-China economic relations,” she said. 她还说，中国现在可能会坚持在出口管制方面的双向让步。她说：“伦敦框架协议可能标志着美中经济关系的一个重要转折点。” Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
TIFFANY MAY, AMY CHANG CHIEN2025年6月12日香港警方禁止了台湾手游《逆统战：烽火》，建议人们不要下载这款游戏，否则将面临严重的法律指控。 Associated Press Hong Kong’s national security police have a new target in their sights: gamers. 香港的国家安全警察盯上了一个新目标：游戏玩家。 In a stern warning issued Tuesday, they effectively banned a Taiwanese video game they described as “advocating armed revolution,” saying anyone who downloaded or recommended it would face serious legal charges. The move comes as the authorities continue to tighten control over online content they consider a threat to the Chinese city. 香港国安部门周二发布了一份措辞严厉的警告，实际上封禁了一款台湾手游，他们称该游戏“鼓吹武装革命”，并称任何下载或推荐该游戏的人都将面临严重的法律指控。此举发生在当局对于他们认为威胁到这座中国城市的在线内容收紧管控之际。 “Reversed Front: Bonfire” is an online game of war strategy released by a Taiwanese group. Illustrated in a colorful manga style, players can choose the roles of “propagandists, patrons, spies or guerrillas” from Taiwan, Mongolia and the Chinese territories of Hong Kong, Xinjiang and Tibet in plots and simulated battles against China’s ruling Communist Party. Alternatively, players can choose to represent government fighters. 《逆统战：烽火》是一个台湾团体制作的战争策略网游。游戏使用了色彩鲜艳的漫画风格，玩家可选择来自台湾、蒙古，以及中国香港、新疆和西藏的“宣传员、资金支持者、间谍或游击队员”等角色，参与对抗中国执政的共产党的阴谋和模拟战斗。玩家也可选择代表政府军。 The game was removed from Apple’s app store in Hong Kong on Wednesday, but remains available elsewhere. 这款游戏已于周三从香港的苹果应用商店下架，但仍能在其他地区下载。 But it had already been out of reach for many gamers. It was never available in mainland China and earlier this month Google removed “Reversed Front” from its app store, citing hateful language, according to the developers. 但对许多玩家来说，这款游戏早就遥不可及。这款游戏从未在中国大陆上线，而且据游戏开发者说，谷歌已在本月早些时候将《逆统战：烽火》从其应用商店下架，理由是游戏中有仇恨言论。 ESC Taiwan is a group of anonymous volunteers who are outspoken against China’s Communist Party. Their products, which include a board game released in 2020, are supported by crowdfunded donations. 台湾ESC团队由匿名的志愿者组成，他们直言不讳地反对中国共产党。他们的产品（包括一款2020年发布的桌游）是众筹捐款支持的。 The developers said that the removal of the game demonstrated how mobile apps in Hong Kong are subject to the type of political censorship seen in mainland China. “Our game is precisely accusing and revealing such intentions,” the group’s representatives said in an email. 开发者表示，这款游戏的下架表明香港的手机应用程序面临着与中国大陆类似的政治审查。“我们的游戏正是准确地谴责和揭露这种意图，”该团体的代表在一封电子邮件中写道。 In social media posts, they also thanked the authorities for the free publicity and posted screenshots of the game’s name surging in Google searches. They said the comments and pseudonyms selected by players in the game would not be censored, whether they were in support or in opposition of the Communist Party. 他们还在社交媒体发帖，感谢当局为游戏做的免费广告，并发布了该游戏名称在谷歌搜索中飙升的截图。他们说，玩家在游戏中选择的昵称和发表的评论不会被审查，无论他们是支持还是反对共产党的。 In its statement, the Hong Kong police said the game promoted “secessionist agendas” and was intended to provoke hatred of the government. They said that publishing, recommending and downloading the game, or supporting the online campaigns that funded it, could amount to sedition and incitement to secession under the national security law in Hong Kong, offenses that can lead to jail sentences. 香港警方在公告中说，这款游戏宣扬“分裂国家的主张”，目的是煽动民众对政府的仇恨。他们说，根据香港的国家安全法，发布、推荐、下载这款游戏，或支持为其提供资金的网络运动，都可能构成煽动叛乱和煽动分裂国家罪，可能被判处监禁。 This is not the first time a video game has been used as an avenue for political protest that has incurred the wrath of Chinese authorities. Animal Crossing, an online game were players could build elaborate designs of their own island, was removed from mainland China after players began importing Hong Kong protest slogans into the game. 这不是电子游戏首次被用作政治抗议的渠道，从而激怒中国当局的例子。在《动物森友会》这款电子游戏中，玩家能精心设计建造自己的岛屿。这款游戏已在中国大陆下架，此前有玩家开始在游戏中加入香港的抗议口号。 Even though virtually all forms of dissent in Hong Kong have been quashed, the national security dragnet in the city continues to widen. The authorities have made widespread arrests under the law, which was imposed five years ago in the wake of massive pro-democracy protests. 尽管香港几乎所有形式的异见都已被镇压，但香港的国安拉网式搜索仍在不断扩大。当局根据五年前在大规模民主抗议活动后实施的国安法，已经逮捕了很多人。 Last week, Hong Kong authorities laid new national security charges against Joshua Wong, one of the city’s most prominent young activists. Mr. Wong is serving the prison sentence of another national security charge that ends in January 2027. 上周，香港当局对黄之锋提起了新的国家安全指控，他是香港最著名的年轻活动人士之一。黄之锋目前正在服刑，刑期将于2027年1月结束。 The authorities last month charged the father of Anna Kwok, an outspoken activist living in Washington, D.C., accusing him of helping handle her financial assets. Ms. Kwok is on a list of people overseas wanted by the Hong Kong police, which has placed bounties on their heads by offering rewards for information that would lead to the their arrest. 上个月，香港当局起诉了郭凤仪的父亲，指控他协助处理她的金融资产。郭凤仪目前住在华盛顿特区，是直言不讳的活动人士。郭凤仪在香港警方的海外通缉名单上，警方悬赏为将他们逮捕提供线索的人。 Tiffany May是时报驻香港记者，报道香港和更广泛地区的政治、商业和文化议题。 Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年6月12日金力永磁稀土股份有限公司的主要磁铁制造基地位于中国赣州，该公司周三表示，已从中国政府拿到出口许可证，将恢复向美国、欧洲和东南亚出口非军事用途的磁铁。 Keith Bradsher/The New York Times In its high-stakes trade talks with the United States, China has been trying to strike a balance in how it wields its market clout. It controls the world’s supply of rare earth metals and magnets. And it has withheld supplies of the materials — crucial ingredients in everything from cars to fighter jets — as leverage. 在中美这场关乎重大的贸易谈判中，中国一直试图在使用本国市场的影响力方面取得平衡。中国控制着全球稀土金属和磁铁的供应，并且将限制这些材料的供应作为谈判筹码。从汽车到战斗机，稀土是多种产品的关键原材料。 At the same time, Beijing knows it must not overplay its hand by pushing Washington so hard that the United States feels compelled to make the long-term investments needed to break its dependence on China. 与此同时，中国政府知道不能过犹不及，若向华盛顿施压力度过大，可能会迫使美国感到有必要进行长期投资，以摆脱对中国的依赖。 This delicate dynamic was underlined in an apparent compromise the countries reached on Tuesday in London. 两国周二在伦敦达成的框架协议看起来是妥协的产物，而这恰恰印证了这种微妙互动。 Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said China’s negotiators had agreed to resume sending rare earths to American companies. The Chinese government did not confirm this. 美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克说，中国的谈判代表已同意恢复向美国企业供应稀土。中国政府尚未证实这一消息。 But on Wednesday afternoon, the JL Mag Rare-Earth Company, a leading magnet producer in Ganzhou, China, said in a public disclosure that it had been issued licenses by China’s Ministry of Commerce for sales of nonmilitary magnet exports to the United States, Europe and Southeast Asia. 但周三下午，金力永磁科技股份有限公司一份公开声明中表示已获得了中国商务部颁发的向美国、欧洲和东南亚出口非军用磁铁的许可证。金力永磁是全球领先的稀土磁铁企业，位于中国赣州。 China has a long history of using government policy to control markets, periodically flooding countries with very low-priced Chinese supplies. That has driven many of China’s overseas rare earth competitors out of business. 中国在利用政府政策控制市场方面有着漫长的历史，间歇性地会向其他国家大量供应价格极低的中国稀土产品，导致许多海外稀土竞争对手破产。 “China is a major rare earth country with the largest amount of resources and the largest exports,” said Xiao Yaqing, a Chinese industrial policy leader, in 2021, when he was minister of industry and information technology. He denied that China limited sales of rare earths: “Some countries say that we restrict exports — most of what you buy comes from China.” “中国是稀土大国，资源量最多，出口的也最多，”时任中国工业和信息化部部长的肖亚庆曾在2021年说。他否认中国限制稀土出口：“有的国家说中国限制出口，然而其买的稀土大部分都是从中国来的。” But by 2021, China already dominated the global market. 但到2021年，中国已经主导了全球市场。 Jim Hedrick, a former rare earths specialist at the United States Geological Survey who is now the president of U.S. Critical Materials, a rare earths company, said it would take five years for the United States to break its dependence on China, even if a sustained effort started right away. 吉姆·赫德里克曾是美国地质调查局的稀土专家，现在是美国关键材料公司的总裁，这是一家稀土公司。他说，即使马上启动持续性的替代计划，美国也需要五年时间才能摆脱对中国的依赖。 “China has had a 30-year head start in rare earth production,” he said. “中国在稀土生产上已有30年的先发优势，”他说。 得克萨斯州沃斯堡MP Materials工厂用的稀土磁铁。稀土金属磁铁对汽车、海上风力涡轮机、无人机、导弹、战斗机，以及许多其他先进制成品的制造至关重要。 Magnets made from rare earth metals are crucial for the manufacture of cars, offshore wind turbines, drones, missiles, fighter jets and many other advanced manufacturing products. 用稀土金属制成的磁铁对汽车、海上风力涡轮机、无人机、导弹、战斗机，以及许多其他先进制成品的制造至关重要。 It was not clear on Wednesday that an agreement by China to restart sending rare earths and magnets to the United States would prove effective in getting American industry the supply it needs. 但周三达成的中方恢复对美出口稀土及磁材协议能否切实满足美国工业需求仍不明确。 Magnet manufacturers need detailed international supply agreements and not just frameworks reached in principle, said Stanley Trout, a metallurgist at Metropolitan State University of Denver. 磁铁制造商需要的是详细的国际供应协议，而不只是原则上达成的框架协议，丹佛大都会州立大学的冶金学家斯坦利·特劳特说。 “We live and die by our specifications, which are detailed lists, so how does this agreement affect our ability to do business?” he said. “我们的生存完全靠规格标准，都有详细的清单，这个框架协议如何保障我们的实际业务运行？”他问道。 Another potential choke point China holds over its supplies of rare earths and magnets is a two-month-old licensing protocol for the exports. Over the last few days, however, China has issued export licenses for automakers and their parts suppliers, rare earth industry leaders said. 中国在稀土和磁体供应上的另一个潜在的制约手段是两个月前出台的出口许可证制度。不过据稀土行业的领导人表示，中国已在过去几天里向汽车制造商及其零部件供应商发放了出口许可证。 Gasoline-powered cars and sport utility vehicles use as many as 100 small rare earth magnets for the electric motors in the brakes, steering and other systems. Electric cars require additional rare earth magnets for the electric motors that turn the wheels. 汽油动力汽车和运动型多用途车的刹车、转向和其他系统的电动机需使用多达100块的小稀土磁铁。而电动汽车则需要更多的稀土磁铁来驱动车轮。 But the licensing process has been cumbersome, industry leaders said, and it was unclear whether the agreement from London would resolve those difficulties. For example, Chinese producers of rare earths and magnets must submit documents specifying the end user of each shipment, and the end user is often required to provide further information on how it will use the shipment. The automakers, which are the end users, sometimes do not know exactly which supplier in their complex supply chains needs the rare earths. 但中国的稀土出口许可证制度一直繁琐，行业领袖表示，目前尚不清楚在伦敦达成的框架协议能否解决这些困难。例如，中国的稀土和磁铁生产商必须提交文件说明每批发货的最终用户，而最终用户往往还需进一步说明具体用途。如果最终用户是汽车制造商，它们有时也难以厘清在其复杂的供应链中究竟哪个供应商需要稀土产品。 Chinese companies took control of the global rare earth market in the 1990s. State-owned and illegal mines alike flooded world markets with low-priced supplies, which were mined and processed with almost no attempt to protect the environment. 中国企业在20世纪90年代控制了全球稀土市场。国有和非法矿山让大量的低价供应涌入全球市场，那时的开采和加工方式几乎完全不考虑环保措施。 International rare earth prices collapsed. The price of samarium, a rare earth essential for many military applications, fell more than 90 percent. 这导致了国际市场上的稀土价格暴跌。对许多军事应用至关重要的稀土金属钐的价格下跌了90%以上。 A Japanese-owned rare earth refinery in Malaysia that supplied Japan’s manufacturing sector closed in 1992. France shut its refinery in 1994, and the sole American mine and refinery, located at Mountain Pass, Calif., suspended operations in 1998. 一家日本公司在马来西亚拥有的工厂曾为日本制造业提供精炼稀土产品，这家工厂已于1992年关闭。法国在1994年关闭了本国的精炼厂，美国仅有的一家位于加利福尼亚州芒廷帕斯的矿山和精炼厂也在1998年暂停运营。 In all three cases, pollution complaints from environmental activists led to what were initially supposed to be temporary closures for equipment improvements. But the facilities did not reopen because they could not compete profitably with China’s low-priced output. 发生这三个情况的原因都是环保活动人士对污染的投诉，最初的结果是暂时关闭工厂，以进行设备更新。但由于无法与中国的低价产品竞争，这些工厂最终未能恢复生产。 During a territorial dispute between China and Japan in 2010 over control of a cluster of uninhabited islands north of Taiwan, China imposed a two-month embargo on shipments of rare earth elements to Japan, causing widespread distress among Japanese manufacturers. 2010年，中日两国围绕台湾以北的几个无人居住的岛屿控制权发生领土争端后，中国对日本实施了为期两个月的稀土元素禁运，给日本制造商造成了普遍的困扰。 At the start of that embargo, China’s Ministry of Commerce called in representatives from the two dozen private and state-owned companies in China with licenses to export rare earths. The ministry ordered them to stop shipments directly to Japan and to avoid making extra shipments to other countries that might resell supplies to Japan. 在禁运开始之初，中国商务部召集了20多家持有稀土出口许可证的国有和民营企业代表开会，命令他们停止直接向日本出口稀土，并避免向可能将稀土转售给日本的其他国家增加出口。 That embargo prompted Hillary Clinton, who was secretary of state, and members of Congress to call for sustained action by the West to reduce dependence on China. Investors and the U.S. government poured $1 billion into modernizing, expanding and reopening the American mine and refinery in Mountain Pass. 那次禁运促使时任国务卿的希拉里·克林顿以及美国国会的议员们呼吁西方国家采取持续的行动，以减少对中国的依赖。投资者和美国政府投入了10亿美元，对位于芒廷帕斯的美国矿山和精炼厂进行了现代化改造和扩建，让工厂重新开工。 Shortly before the mine reopened in 2014, China’s Ministry of Commerce agreed to an American request in a World Trade Organization case that the country dismantle its limits on rare earth exports. Meanwhile, over the previous four years, a separate arm of China’s government, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, had nationalized many of the country’s rare earth mines and refineries. 该矿2014年重新开工前不久，中国商务部接受了世界贸易组织的裁定，要求中国取消对稀土出口的限制，仲裁案是美国提起的。与此同时，中国政府的另一个部门——工业和信息化部已在过去四年里将许多稀土矿和精炼厂收归国有。 With the ministry of industry’s support, Chinese companies flooded global markets with rare earths. Prices collapsed again, forcing the Mountain Pass operation to suspend operations again in 2015. 在工信部的支持下，中国企业向全球市场大量供应稀土。稀土价格再次暴跌，迫使芒廷帕斯矿于2015年再次暂停运营。 The Mountain Pass mine reopened in 2018 under new ownership and management, but for the next few years shipped its ore to China for processing. Only since late last year has the refinery at the site resumed processing a little more than half of the material it produces. The United States still has almost no magnet manufacturing capacity. 虽然芒廷帕斯矿已于2018年在新的所有者和管理层的领导下重启，但在接下来的几年里，该矿一直把矿石运到中国加工。直到去年年底，该矿配套的精炼厂才恢复加工能力，但只能处理略多于一半的矿石产量。美国目前仍然几乎没有磁铁的制造能力。 David Pierson和Li You对本文有报道和研究贡献。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ADAM LIPTAK2025年6月11日自2015年首次竞选总统以来，特朗普总统就一直声称美国身陷动荡，唯有他才能让美国再次伟大。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times To hear President Trump tell it, the nation is facing a rebellion in Los Angeles, an invasion by a Venezuelan gang and extraordinary foreign threats to its economy. 若是按照特朗普总统的说法，这个国家正面临三重危机：洛杉矶的叛乱、一个委内瑞拉黑帮的入侵，以及来自外部的严重经济威胁。 Citing this series of crises, he has sought to draw on emergency powers that Congress has scattered throughout the United States Code over the centuries, summoning the National Guard to Los Angeles over the objections of California’s governor, sending scores of migrants to El Salvador without the barest hint of due process and upending the global economy with steep tariffs. 基于这些所谓的危机，他试图动用国会几个世纪以来散布在《美国法典》各处的紧急权力：不顾加州州长反对向洛杉矶调遣国民警卫队，未经正当程序将大批移民遣送至萨尔瓦多，通过高额关税扰乱全球经济。 Legal scholars say the president’s actions are not authorized by the statutes he has cited and are, instead, animated by a different goal. 法律学者指出，总统援引的法条并未授权他采取这些行动，而且他在这些事上别有所图。 “He is declaring utterly bogus emergencies for the sake of trying to expand his power, undermine the Constitution and destroy civil liberties,” said Ilya Somin, a libertarian professor at Antonin Scalia Law School who represents a wine importer and other businesses challenging some of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. 安东宁·斯卡利亚法学院的自由派教授伊利亚·索明表示，“他正在通过捏造紧急状态来扩张权力、破坏宪法并摧毁公民自由。”索明代理一家葡萄酒进口商和另外几家公司，正在对特朗普的一些关税提出挑战。 Crisis is Mr. Trump’s brand. When he took office the first time, he promised to end “American carnage.” When he announced his most recent re-election campaign, he said he would reverse “staggering American decline.” Ever since he first ran for president in 2015, he has argued that only he can restore the country to greatness. 危机叙事是特朗普的标识。他在第一个任期曾经承诺要结束“美国浩劫”。在宣布再次竞选时，他声称要扭转“惊人的美国衰落”。自2015年首次竞选总统以来，他一直标榜唯有自己才能让美国再次伟大。 Now in office again, he is converting that rhetoric into policy. Mr. Trump says that events and circumstances largely considered routine amount to emergencies that allow him to invoke powers rarely sought by his predecessors but embedded in statutes by lawmakers who wanted to ensure presidents could act quickly and aggressively to confront authentic crises. 如今再度上台，他将这种说辞转化为政策。特朗普将普遍被视为常态的事件定性为紧急状态，借此动用历任总统鲜少动用、但由立法者写入法律条文的权力。这些权力本来是国会为了让总统能够快速应对真实危机而设定的。 Frank O. Bowman, a law professor at the University of Missouri, said the laws Mr. Trump has invoked were premised on a presumption that the flexibility they granted would not be abused. 密苏里大学法学教授弗兰克·O·鲍曼表示，特朗普援引的法律是基于一种假设，即它们所赋予的灵活性不会被滥用。 “Genuine emergencies do occur, and Congress knows that it’s slow,” Professor Bowman said. “It wants presidents acting in good faith to move with rapidity.” “真正的紧急情况确实会发生，国会也知道自己行动缓慢，”鲍曼说。“它希望秉持诚信的总统能迅速行动。” But Professor Bowman said Mr. Trump’s approach was different. “Declaring everything an emergency begins to move us in the direction of allowing the use of government force and violence against people you don’t like,” he said. 但鲍曼指出，特朗普的做法截然不同。“将一切事态都宣布为紧急状态，这种做法正将我们推向允许政府对你不喜欢的人动用武力或暴力手段的方向，”他说。 In a statement, the White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said that Democrats had failed “to protect Americans from economic and national security threats — inaction that has resulted in serious crises.” 白宫发言人泰勒·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示，民主党人未能“保护美国民众免受经济和国家安全威胁——这种不作为已经酿成了严重危机”。 “President Trump is rightfully using his executive authority — as evidenced by many victories in court — to deliver resolve and relief for the American people,” she said. “特朗普总统正在正当行使行政权力——这从他在法院赢得的多项胜诉中可见一斑——为美国民众带来坚定的举措与切实的纾解，”她说。 In fact, lower courts have for the most part rejected Mr. Trump’s assertions of emergency powers. 事实上，下级法院在很大程度上驳回了特朗普对紧急权力的主张。 In March, Mr. Trump invoked the Alien Enemies Act of 1798, which grants the president the power to deport citizens of nations engaged in war, invasion or “predatory incursion,” arguing that Tren de Aragua, a violent Venezuelan gang, was invading the United States. The law had been used just three times before, in the War of 1812, in World War I and in World War II. 3月，特朗普援引1798年《敌对外国人法》——该法案授权总统驱逐与美国处于战争、入侵或“掠夺性侵犯”状态的国家的公民——声称委内瑞拉暴力犯罪集团“阿拉瓜火车”正在入侵美国。这项法律此前仅被用过三次，分别是在1812年战争、第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战期间。 Several judges have now rejected the idea that the gang’s activities justified the use of the law. 目前已有数位法官裁定，该犯罪团伙的活动不足以构成援引此项法律的条件。 There is nothing in the 1798 law, Judge Alvin K. Hellerstein of the Federal District Court in Manhattan ruled last month, that “justifies a finding that refugees migrating from Venezuela, or TdA gangsters who infiltrate the migrants, are engaged in an ‘invasion’ or ‘predatory incursion.’” 曼哈顿联邦地区法院法官阿尔文·海勒斯坦上月裁定：1798年的法律中没有任何条款“能够证明来自委内瑞拉的难民或混入移民群体的阿拉瓜火车黑帮成员构成了‘入侵’或‘掠夺性侵犯’。” “They do not seek to occupy territory, to oust American jurisdiction from any territory, or to ravage territory,” wrote Judge Hellerstein, who was appointed by President Bill Clinton. “TdA may well be engaged in narcotics trafficking, but that is a criminal matter, not an invasion or predatory incursion.” “他们不寻求占领领土，或寻求推翻美国在任何领土上的管辖权，也不寻求蹂躏领土，”由克林顿总统任命的海勒斯坦法官写道。“‘阿拉瓜火车’或许确实从事贩毒活动，但这属于刑事犯罪，而非入侵或掠夺性侵犯。” One judge, Stephanie L. Haines, of the Federal District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania, a Trump appointee, ruled the other way, saying the gang has engaged in a “predatory incursion.” 然而，由特朗普任命的宾夕法尼亚州西区联邦地区法院史蒂芬妮·海恩斯法官做出了相反的裁决，称该帮派进行了“掠夺性侵犯”。 Even apart from the 1798 law, Mr. Trump has embraced the rhetoric of a nation under siege, promising amid stepped-up ICE raids and violent protests in California to “take all such action necessary to liberate Los Angeles from the Migrant Invasion.” 即使抛开1798年的法律不谈，特朗普还渲染“国家受到围困”的论调，在移民与海关执法局突击搜查和加利福尼亚州暴力抗议活动升级之际，他宣称将“采取一切必要行动，将洛杉矶从移民入侵中解放出来”。 Mr. Trump used a similar justification for imposing tariffs in April, saying that “foreign trade and economic practices have created a national emergency.” Two courts have ruled against him, though an appeals court has temporarily paused the broader of the two rulings. 特朗普在4月加征关税时也使用了类似的理由，称“外国的贸易和经济行为已造成国家紧急情况”。两家法院已裁定他败诉，尽管一家上诉法院暂时中止了其中适用范围较广的一项裁决。 特朗普总统在加州调动了数千名国民警卫队员，宣称将“采取一切必要行动，将洛杉矶从移民入侵中解放出来”。 California officials on Monday disputed Mr. Trump’s assertion that there was a crisis in the state that required an extraordinary federal response when they announced a lawsuit over his takeover of a unit of the state’s militia. “The situation in Los Angeles didn’t meet the criteria for federalization, which includes invasion by a foreign country, rebellion against the authority of the government of the United States and being unable to execute federal laws,” state officials said in describing the suit. 加州官员在周一驳斥了特朗普所谓加州正面临危机、需要联邦采取非常措施的说法，并宣布他们就总统接管该州民兵部队的一个单位提起诉讼。州政府官员在说明诉讼理由时表示：“洛杉矶的局势不符合联邦接管的标准，而这些标准包括：外国入侵、反抗美国政府权威，以及无法执行联邦法律。” The Supreme Court has yet to weigh in on Mr. Trump’s recent assertions of emergency powers. In the past, the justices have at times been skeptical of such claims. They did not hesitate, for instance, to reject President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s invocations of the Covid pandemic to take emergency actions. 美国最高法院目前尚未对特朗普总统近期有关紧急权力的主张作出裁定。从历史判例来看，大法官们对此类权力主张往往持审慎态度。举例来说，他们曾毫不迟疑地驳回了拜登总统以新冠疫情为由采取的紧急措施。 Two notable provisions of the Constitution discuss invasions. One prohibits states from engaging in war “unless actually invaded, or in such imminent danger as will not admit of delay.” The other says that “the privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it.” 美国宪法中有两项重要条款对“入侵”作出规定：其一明确禁止各州在“非实际遭受入侵，或面临刻不容缓之紧迫危险”的情况下参与战争；另一条款则规定“人身保护令特权不得中止，除非发生叛乱或入侵事件，且基于公共安全之必需”。 The court’s most significant ruling on a president’s emergency powers came in its 1952 decision in Youngstown Sheet and Tube Company v. Sawyer, which rejected President Harry S. Truman’s claim that a national emergency — there, the Korean War — allowed him to nationalize steel mills in the face of labor strikes. 联邦最高法院就总统紧急权力作出的最重要裁决，当属1952年《扬斯敦钢铁公司诉索耶案》——该案否决了哈里·杜鲁门总统以朝鲜战争构成国家紧急状态为由，强行将钢铁厂国有化以应对工人罢工的主张。 The decision included a canonical concurrence from Justice Robert H. Jackson, a touchstone that Supreme Court nominees routinely praise at their confirmation hearings. 在那项裁决中，罗伯特·杰克逊大法官撰写了一份协同意见书，该意见书已成为一块试金石，经常在最高法院席位确认听证会上得到提名人们的称赞。 Justice Jackson wrote that the framers of the Constitution were wary of granting the president emergency powers. 杰克逊大法官在意见书中指出，宪法的制定者对授予总统紧急权力始终持审慎态度。 “They knew what emergencies were, knew the pressures they engender for authoritative action, knew, too, how they afford a ready pretext for usurpation,” he wrote. “We may also suspect that they suspected that emergency powers would tend to kindle emergencies.” 他写道：“他们深谙紧急状态的本质，清楚其带来的强制性行动，更明白这往往成为权力僭越的现成借口。我们或许还可以推测，他们还在想紧急权力本身可能可以激发出更多紧急情况。” Adam Liptak负责报道最高法院并撰写关于法律发展的专栏“Sidebar”。他毕业于耶鲁大学法学院，在2002年加入《纽约时报》之前，他从事法律工作长达14年。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
MARTIN FACKLER2025年6月11日台湾国防部4月发布的一张照片显示，在台湾附近海域航行的中国航母山东舰。 Taiwan Defense Ministry, via Agence France Press. In a display of Beijing’s growing military reach, the Chinese Navy sent two aircraft carriers into the Pacific Ocean, far from the country’s coast, for the first time to conduct exercises together, Japan’s defense minister, Gen Nakatani, said. 日本防卫大臣中谷元称，中国海军派出两艘航空母舰进入远离本土海岸的太平洋，首次举行联合演习。此举展现了北京日益增长的军事影响力。 Mr. Nakatani told reporters on Monday that the Chinese aircraft carriers were spotted launching and retrieving jet fighters out in the Pacific to the east of the Japanese island of Iwo Jima, about 750 miles south of Tokyo. He said the Japanese Navy was monitoring the joint exercise by both vessels, which began on Saturday. 周一，中谷元对记者表示，，在东京以南约1200公里的日本硫磺岛以东太平洋海域发现中国航空母舰正在进行战机的起降训练。他说，日本海军对两艘航母上周六开始的联合演习实施全程监控。 It was the first time that China’s two active-duty aircraft carriers, the Liaoning and the Shandong, and their escort ships had operated together in the Pacific beyond the islands of Japan, which form a natural barrier that Beijing calls the First Island Chain. 这是中国两艘现役航母——辽宁舰和山东舰及其护卫舰第一次在日本群岛以外的太平洋上协同行动。日本群岛构成了一道天然屏障，北京称之为第一岛链。 To escape the confines of that chain, China has been strengthening its navy by adding aircraft carriers, which can project force far greater distances. In addition to the Liaoning and the Shandong, China has built a third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, which is undergoing sea trials before entering active duty. A fourth aircraft carrier is under construction. 为了突破岛链封锁，中国一直在通过增加航母来加强海军的战斗力，这些航母可以将力量投射到更远的距离。除了辽宁舰和山东舰，中国还建造了第三艘航母福建舰，目前正在进行服役之前的海试。第四艘航母也在建造中。 By cruising beyond Japan, the Chinese warships are demonstrating that they could challenge not only Japan but also its biggest ally, the United States, for control of the western Pacific during a crisis. If the United States deployed ships from Hawaii, the West Coast or even Guam, they would have to pass near those waters to reach Japan or Taiwan. China claims Taiwan, a self-governing island, as its own territory, but the United States has pledged to help defend it. 通过此次在日本海域外的巡航，中国军舰表明，它们在危机时期不仅可以挑战日本，还可以挑战其最大盟友美国，争夺西太平洋的控制权。如果美国从夏威夷、西海岸甚至关岛部署军舰，它们必须途径这些水域才能抵达日本或台湾。中国声称自治岛屿台湾是自己的领土，但美国承诺协防台湾。 So far, the Chinese ships are smaller and carry fewer planes than America’s 11 large nuclear-powered aircraft carriers. The Chinese buildup has also prompted Japan to build its first small aircraft carriers since World War II, which will be capable of carrying U.S.-made F-35B stealth fighters. 到目前为止，中国航母在吨位和舰载机数量上与美国的11艘大型核动力航母还存在差距。中国的军力增长也促使日本建造了自“二战”以来的第一批小型航母，它们能够搭载美制F-35B隐形战斗机。 Hisako Ueno自东京对本文有报道贡献。 Martin Fackler是《纽约时报》东京分社代理社长。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ALAN RAPPEPORT, ANA SWANSON2025年6月11日周二，新闻媒体成员在伦敦兰开斯特宫外等候，中美贸易谈判正在这里举行。 Toby Melville/Reuters The United States and China have agreed to a “framework” that is intended to ease economic tension and extend a trade truce that the world’s two largest economies reached last month, officials from both countries said on Tuesday. 美中官员周二表示，双方已就缓解经济紧张局势达成“框架协议”，延长世界上两个最大经济体上个月达成的贸易休战。 After two days of marathon negotiations in London, top economic officials from the United States and China are now expected to present the new framework to their leaders, President Trump and President Xi Jinping, for final approval. 在伦敦进行了为期两天的马拉松式谈判之后，中美高级经济官员现在有望将新框架提交给两国领导人特朗普总统和习近平主席，作最终批准。 The agreement is intended to solidify terms of a deal that the United States and China reached in Switzerland in May that unraveled in recent weeks. Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary who was part of the negotiating team, said that American concerns over China’s restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and magnets had been resolved. 该协议旨在巩固美中两国5月在瑞士达成，但最近几周又告破裂的贸易条款。谈判小组成员之一、商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示，美国对中国限制稀土矿物和磁体出口的担忧已经得到解决。 “We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus,” Mr. Lutnick told reporters in London. “我们已经达成了一个落实日内瓦共识的框架，”卢特尼克在伦敦告诉记者。 He added that Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi will be briefed on the agreement before it is implemented. 他还说，在协议实施之前，特朗普和习近平将听取有关协议的简报。 “They were focused on trying to deliver on what President Xi told President Trump,” Mr. Lutnick said. “I think both sides had extra impetus to get things done.” “他们专注于努力实现习主席告诉特朗普总统的内容，”卢特尼克说。“我认为双方都有额外的动力来完成工作。 The U.S. trade representative, Jamieson Greer, said that the discussions were also focused on ensuring compliance with what was agreed in Geneva about rare earth mineral exports and tariffs. He said that the two sides would continue to be in regular contact as they attempt to work through their economic disagreements. 美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示，讨论的重点还包括确保遵守在日内瓦达成的关于稀土矿物出口和关税的协议。他说，双方将继续保持定期接触，努力解决经济分歧。 China’s vice commerce minister, Li Chenggang, said that the talks were professional, reasonable, substantive and candid, according to Chinese state media. 据中国官方媒体报道，中国商务部副部长李成钢表示，会谈是专业、理性、深入和坦诚的。 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who had led the American delegation, departed the talks late Tuesday evening in order to return to Washington for congressional hearings on Wednesday. On the Chinese side, the negotiations were led by He Lifeng, the vice premier in charge of economic policy. 率领美国代表团的财政部长斯科特·贝森特周二晚间离开会谈，准备周三返回华盛顿参加国会听证会。在中国方面，谈判由主管经济的副总理何立峰牵头。 The two sides were seeking a resolution to painful economic measures they had imposed on one another in recent months. After Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods in April, Beijing clamped down on exports of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to shut down operations by American manufacturers, defense contractors and others. 双方正在寻求解决近几个月来相互施加的严厉经济措施。自特朗普政府今年4月提高对中国商品的关税后，北京开始限制关键矿产及相关物项的出口，威胁到美国制造商、国防承包商和其他企业业务的运营。 In a meeting in Geneva last month, United States and Chinese officials agreed to roll back tariffs and other retaliatory measures. But Trump administration officials were dismayed when Chinese shipments of the rare earth minerals, and the magnets made with them, remained infrequent, and they accused China of violating its agreement in Geneva. 在上个月的日内瓦会谈中，双方官员同意取消关税和其他报复性措施。但令特朗普政府官员感到沮丧的是，中国对稀土矿物以及相关磁体的出口仍然很少，他们指责中国违反了在日内瓦达成的协议。 U.S. officials responded by clamping down on exports of American products and technology to China, including software for making semiconductors, gases like ethane and butane, and nuclear and aerospace components. U.S. officials also proposed barring Chinese students from enrolling in the United States. 作为回应，美国加强了对华出口美国产品和技术的限制，包括用于制造半导体的软件、乙烷和丁烷等气体，以及核能和航空部件。美国官员还提议禁止中国学生来美留学。 The Chinese government denied that its rare earth measures are targeted at the United States, and said that American officials were the ones who broke the agreement made in Geneva. 中国政府否认其稀土措施是针对美国的，并指出美国官员才是违反日内瓦协议的始作俑者。 This week, officials met at Lancaster House in London to try to restore their truce. The talks came just days after President Trump held a 90-minute phone call with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader — the first time the two heads of state had spoken directly since Mr. Trump returned to office in January. 本周，官员们在伦敦的兰开斯特宫会面，试图恢复休战状态。会谈前几天，特朗普总统刚刚与中国领导人习近平通了90分钟的电话——这是特朗普今年1月上任以来两国元首首次直接通话。 Keith Bradsher自北京对本文有报道贡献。 Alan Rappeport是时报驻华盛顿的经济政策记者。 他负责报道财政部并撰写有关税收、贸易和财政事务的文章。 Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ANA SWANSON2025年6月11日美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（左）和财政部长斯科特·贝森特在白宫，摄于今年3月。本周，他们和其他美国官员一起与中国同行举行谈判。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times If the United States and China have succeeded at one thing this year, it is finding each other’s pain points. 若论美中两国今年最成功的一件事，那就是它们抓到了彼此的痛处。 An initial clash over tariffs has grown in recent months into a competition over which country can weaponize its control over the other’s supply chains. 最初围绕关税展开的冲突已在近几个月里演化为一场竞争，看看谁能死死卡住对方的供应链。 China has clamped down on global shipments of rare minerals that are essential to building cars, missiles and a host of electronic products. The United States has in turn paused shipments to China of chemicals, machinery and technology including software and components to produce nuclear power, airplanes and semiconductors. As the conflict has escalated in recent weeks, it has caused Ford Motor and other companies to suspend some of their operations. 中国已采取强制措施限制向全球输出稀土矿产，这些矿产对制造汽车、导弹，以及一系列电子产品至关重要。美国则暂停了向中国出口部分化学品，以及用于生产核能、航天和半导体的机械和技术（包括软件和零部件）。随着贸易冲突在最近几周升级，福特汽车等美国企业已暂停部分业务。 Both countries are now trying to find a way to defuse the situation. Top-ranking officials from the two sides are meeting on Tuesday for a second day of trade negotiations at Lancaster House in London, a historical site that has long been a stage for international treaties. They gathered just days after President Trump held a 90-minute phone call with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader — the first time the two heads of state had spoken directly since Mr. Trump returned to office in January. 两国现在都在努力寻找缓和局势的途径。双方高层官员周二继续在伦敦的兰卡斯特宫举行了第二天的贸易谈判，这座具有历史意义的建筑曾是诸多国际条约的签署地。就在两国官员举行会晤的几天前，美国总统特朗普与中国国家主席习近平通了90分钟的电话，这是自特朗普今年1月上任以来，两国元首的首次直接通话。 The haste with which the negotiations were arranged reflects the severity of the measures that both countries have recently adopted. After Mr. Trump ratcheted up tariffs on China to a minimum of 145 percent in April, Beijing clamped down on exports of critical minerals and magnets, threatening to shut down operations by American manufacturers, defense contractors and others. 谈判安排的紧促性反映了双方近期所采取措施的严厉程度。特朗普今年4月将对华关税上调至最低145%后，中国随即实施了关键矿产和磁铁的出口管制，给美国的制造商、国防承包商以及其他企业的正常运行造成了威胁。 U.S. and Chinese officials struck a temporary truce in a meeting in Geneva last month to roll back tariffs and, Trump administration officials believed, to restart a steady flow of rare earths to American companies. But shipments of the minerals, and the magnets made with them, remain infrequent and tightly controlled. In late May, Ford temporarily closed a factory in Chicago that makes its Explorer sport utility vehicle because of a lack of magnets. 上个月，美中官员在日内瓦举行会晤时达成了暂停贸易战的协议，双方降低了关税水平，而且特朗普政府的官员还认为，中国将恢复向美国企业提供稳定的稀土供应。但中国的稀土以及相关物项的出口量仍然很小，并且受到严格管控。由于缺少磁铁，福特于5月底将芝加哥的探险者SUV工厂暂时关闭。 In response, U.S. officials have tried to squeeze China by clamping down on exports to the country, including software for making semiconductors, gases like ethane and butane, and nuclear and aerospace components, people familiar with the bans said. U.S. officials also proposed bans on Chinese students in the United States as part of a coordinated effort to ramp up pressure on China before the call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi. 据知情人士透露，作为回应，美国官员试图通过限制对华出口向中国施压，受限产品包括用于半导体制造的软件、乙烷和丁烷等气体，以及核能和航空零部件。在特朗普与习近平通话前，美国官员还提出了限制中国学生来美留学的禁令，作为对华施压协同行动的一部分。 On the call, Mr. Xi warned that the leaders of the United States and China needed to “steer clear of various disturbances or even sabotage,” seemingly a reference to the idea that critics of China in Mr. Trump’s government had driven some of these efforts without his knowledge. But according to one person familiar with the efforts, the actions were done with Mr. Trump’s knowledge or at his direction. 习近平在通话中警告，双方领导人需要“排除各种干扰甚至破坏”，这似乎指的是特朗普政府内部的对华强硬派可能在其不知情的情况下推动了部分措施。但据一名知情人士表示，这些行动都是在特朗普知情或在其授意下采取的。 In addition to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading the talks for the United States, and Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, the American delegation includes Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who overseas the export controls. On the Chinese side, the negotiations are led by He Lifeng, the vice premier in charge of economic policy. 美国的谈判代表团除了主持谈判的财政部长斯科特·贝森特和美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔外，还包括负责出口管制的商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克。中国方面的谈判由主管经济的国务院副总理何立峰牵头。 Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global, a geopolitical risk advisory firm, and a former National Security Council director for China during the first Trump and Biden administrations, said China had found a pressure point over the United States in rare earths. Beijing used it to get tariffs rolled back, but that lever ultimately backfired, Ms. Tobin said. 地缘政治风险咨询公司Garnaut Global的董事总经理莉莎·托宾曾在特朗普上次执政和拜登执政期间担任国家安全委员会的中国事务主任。她说，中国已在稀土矿产上找到了对美国的施压点。中国政府在促使美国降低关税上使用了这个压迫点，但那个杠杆最终产生了事与愿违的后果，托宾说。 “Beijing squeezed harder, but Washington’s reaction was the exact opposite of what Beijing wanted: a counterstrike through more export controls,” she said. “北京施加了更大的压力，但华盛顿的反应与北京预期的截然相反，美国使用加强出口管制的方式进行了反击，”她说。 美中贸易谈判正在伦敦具有历史意义的建筑兰开斯特宫举行。 While Mr. Trump has occasionally mused about his interest in striking a broader trade deal with China, U.S. officials seem to have little optimism that the two sides could make progress toward a comprehensive agreement, especially as the supply chain dispute has dragged on. 尽管特朗普偶尔会对与中国达成一项更广泛的贸易协议表示兴趣，但美国官员似乎对双方在达成一项全面协议上取得进展不乐观，尤其是在供应链争端持续进行的情况下。 On CBS’s “Face the Nation” on Sunday, Kevin Hassett, a top White House economic adviser, said Mr. Trump had suggested during the call with Mr. Xi that officials from the countries meet to “clear up” any differences over rare earths and “shake hands on it.” 周日，白宫高级经济顾问凯文·哈塞特在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面向全国》节目中说，特朗普在与习近平通话时建议，两国官员举行会晤，“扫除”在稀土问题上的所有分歧，在这个问题上“握手言和”。 “The point is we want the rare earth, the magnets that are crucial for cellphones and everything else to flow just as they did before the beginning of April,” Mr. Hassett said. “关键是我们要让稀土像在4月初以前的供应状态，稀土磁铁对手机等产品至关重要，”哈塞特说。 The Chinese government has denied that its rare earth measures are targeted at the United States. A spokesman for the Chinese Commerce Ministry said Saturday that rare-earth-related items had both civilian and military applications, and that the export controls were in line with international practices to safeguard national security and national interests. 中国政府否认稀土出口管制措施是针对美国的。中国商务部发言人上周六说，“稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性，对其实施出口管制符合国际通行做法。” Xinhua, China’s official news agency, published an editorial on Monday about the country’s rare earth regulations, noting that “viewing these measures as mere short-term bargaining tools underestimates the strategic depth of China’s policy decisions.” It would be more “constructive” for Western countries instead to “focus on understanding and adapting to China’s new measures,” it continued. 中国官方通讯社新华社周一发表时评，讨论了中国的稀土法规，指出“若将此曲解为短期博弈的‘筹码’，实则是矮化了中国政策的战略高度”。文章继续写道，西方国家应该“将更多精力投入到理解和适应中国的治理新规上来”。 Many factories in the United States, Europe and Japan are quickly running out of rare earth magnets, for which China produces 90 percent of the world’s supply. Beijing has been setting up a system to require licenses to export seven rare earth metals and magnets made from them. 美国、欧洲、日本的许多工厂很快将出现稀土磁铁库存耗尽的问题，中国生产的稀土磁铁占全球供应量的90%。中国政府一直在设立许可证制度，要求输出七种稀土金属及相关物项的实体申请出口许可证。 The Commerce Ministry has started issuing more licenses in the past two weeks. It said on Saturday that it might be willing to speed up the approval of rare earth exports to Europe, while also calling for the European Union to rescind some of its own tariffs and restrictions on trade with China. 过去两周，中国商务部已加大许可证的发放力度。商务部上周六表示，愿意加快向欧洲出口稀土的审批，同时呼吁欧盟取消部分对华贸易关税和限制措施。 A lingering question is how long it might take for China’s rare earth processing centers and magnet factories to ramp up deliveries even if a deal is concluded in London. The mineral processing centers and magnet factories in southern China, where five of the seven restricted rare earths are mined and turned into magnets, were all visibly closed during a visit in April. 一个挥之不去的问题是，即使双方在伦敦达成了协议，中国的稀土加工中心和磁铁工厂需要多长时间才能提高交货量。记者今年4月在实地走访时看到，位于中国南方的矿产加工中心和磁铁工厂处于明显停工状态（七种受出口管制限制的稀土元素中有五种在这里开采并制成磁材）。 But much more activity was apparent on Monday in Baotou, a mining hub in northern China that is the world’s dominant producer of samarium, the now-restricted rare earth that is essential for fighter jets and missiles. A strong smell of ammonia and other chemicals hung in the air outside of the city’s rare earth refineries, a sign that at least some processes were running. 但周一在包头看到的情况则更为活跃，包头是中国北方的矿业中心，是全球主要的钐产地，这种受出口管制限制的稀土元素对战斗机和导弹的制造至关重要。包头市外的稀土精炼厂上空弥漫着浓烈的氨水和其他化学物质的气味，表明至少部分生产工序仍在进行。 The United States and China also continue to spar over other issues. U.S. officials have criticized Beijing for failing to follow through on the terms of a trade deal Mr. Trump signed with Chinese officials during his first term. Last week, the Justice Department brought charges against two Chinese researchers accused of trying to smuggle into the United States a fungus that can cripple crops of wheat and other grains. 美中在其他问题上的争执也仍在继续。美国官员指责中国未能履行特朗普首个任期内签署的贸易协议。上周，美国司法部对两名中国研究人员提起诉讼，指控他们试图将一种可能损害小麦和其他谷类作物的真菌偷偷带入美国。 The Trump administration has also pressed China to do more to police exports to the United States of fentanyl and the precursor chemicals to make it, imposing a 20 percent tariff on all Chinese products in association with fentanyl. A 10 percent “universal” tariff applies to countries broadly, though courts are challenging its legitimacy. 特朗普政府还敦促中国加强对芬太尼及前体化学品出口美国的监管，并对所有与芬太尼相关的中国产品征收20%的关税。尽管法院质疑其合法性，但美国10%的“普遍性”关税仍然适用于多个藕夹。 The Trump administration also continues to focus on negotiations with more than a dozen other countries before a July 9 deadline, when higher tariffs would snap back into effect globally. As part of those negotiations, U.S. officials have pressed Europe, Vietnam, Malaysia and other governments to limit their trade with China. 特朗普政府也继续把注意力放在与其他十几个国家的贸易谈判上，7月9日是谈判的最后期限，如果无果，更高的关税将在全球范围内生效。作为这些谈判的一部分，美国官员已向欧洲、越南、马来西亚以及其他国家的政府施压，要求它们限制与中国的贸易。 Chinese officials have been trying to strengthen their trade ties elsewhere, and appear to be waiting to see the terms the Trump administration negotiates with other governments. While in London, Mr. He is also scheduled to meet with his British counterparts for trade talks. 中国官员一直在努力加强与其他国家的贸易联系，似乎在观望特朗普政府将与他国达成怎样的条款。何立峰在伦敦期间还将与英国同行举行贸易谈判。 Keith Bradsher自中国包头、Jack Ewing自纽约、Eshe Nelson自伦敦对本文有报道贡献，Amy Chang Chien、Joy Dong 和Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。 Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ERIC LIPTON, DAVID YAFFE-BELLANY, 傅才德, DEVON LUM, JIAWEI WANG2025年6月10日 The Trump White House has repeatedly sounded an alarm about visitors with ties to China’s Communist Party coming to the United States, arguing that they are a potential security threat. 特朗普政府曾屡次对与中共存在关联的人入境美国发出安全警告，称他们可能带来安全威胁。 But the administration appears to have literally left the door open to a member of a Chinese government group when it went along with a plan to give the biggest purchasers of President Trump’s digital currency access to the president and the White House. 然而，当特朗普政府同意一项计划、让总统的数字货币最大买家有机会接触总统本人和白宫时，实际上对一名中国政府组织的成员敞开了大门。 Mr. Trump launched a so-called memecoin, a type of cryptocurrency, just days before his inauguration. To bolster sales, the president’s business partners created a contest in April, offering the coin’s top buyers a tour of the White House and a private dinner with Mr. Trump at his Virginia golf club. 在就职典礼前几天，特朗普推出了所谓的米姆币——一种加密货币。为了促销，总统的商业伙伴在4月份推出了一项竞赛，承诺顶级买家可获白宫参观资格，以及在他的弗吉尼亚高尔夫俱乐部与特朗普共进私人晚餐的机会。 One of those buyers was He Tianying, who is a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, according to government documents in China examined by The New York Times. 其中一位买家是何天鹰，据《纽约时报》查阅的中国政府文件显示，他是一名政协委员。 That government group, referred to as the C.P.P.C.C., is an advisory body that seeks to broaden the Communist Party’s influence and solicit support from influential people in Chinese society. 这个政府团体是一个旨在扩大共产党影响力并争取中国社会有影响力人士支持的咨询机构。 Mr. He, who was registered at the Trump event as a resident of Hong Kong, advises the Chinese government through his role as a delegate of the Fangshan C.P.P.C.C., a district of Beijing. He is listed as a member of the organization’s science and technology committee. The Times could find no indication that Mr. He is a member of the Communist Party, and the government body he serves on is fairly low level. 何天鹰以香港居民身份注册参加特朗普的活动，而他是作为北京市房山区政协委员向中国政府提出建议的。他是房山区政协科技委员会成员。时报未发现他是中共党员的证据，且其所在的政府机构级别也相对较低。 There were no restrictions on who could buy the Trump memecoin — which was marketed like a collectible baseball card — including foreign nationals. But the winning buyers were given the opportunity for close proximity to the president. It is not clear why Mr. He wanted to attend. 购买特朗普米姆币不存在限制（被宣传为类似棒球卡这样的收藏品），外国公民也可以购买。但获胜买家获得了近距离接触总统的机会。目前尚不清楚何天鹰想参加特朗普活动的动机。 抗议者聚集在弗吉尼亚州斯特林市的特朗普国家高尔夫俱乐部外，在加密货币晚宴宾客抵达时举行示威。这场活动同时招致民主党人、政府监督机构乃至部分共和党人士的强烈批评。 Still, at a time when the administration is seeking to scrutinize and revoke the visas of Chinese students with ties to the Communist Party, the incident illustrates inconsistencies in the Trump administration’s approach to how it handles Chinese nationals, as well as potential weaknesses in the background checks the Trump administration did on the guests who bought his memecoin. 尽管如此，在政府正寻求加强审查并取消与共产党有联系的中国学生留学签证的时候，此事暴露出特朗普政府在处理中国公民问题上的矛盾性，以及政府对特朗普米姆币购买者的背景调查可能存在的漏洞。 Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said in an interview that the dinner was a private event and that government officials were not closely involved. “As the White House has always maintained, this was not an official White House event,” she said. 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在采访中表示，该晚宴属私人性质，政府并未深度参与。她说：“正如白宫一直所坚持的那样，这并非一场官方的白宫活动。” Once a crypto skeptic, Mr. Trump has done an about-face and declared himself a digital coin enthusiast, raising ethical concerns and blurring the line between his personal business ventures and the presidency. His family’s company has issued its own cryptocurrency, and he has also heavily promoted the memecoin, known as $TRUMP. 曾对加密货币持怀疑态度的特朗普如今已彻底转变立场，自诩为数字货币的拥趸，此举不仅引发伦理争议，还模糊了私人商业利益与总统职务之间的界限。他的家族公司不仅发行了自己的加密货币，其本人还大力推广名为$TRUMP的米姆币。 The memecoin dinner engendered strong criticism from Democrats, government watchdogs and even some Republicans about the appearance of monetizing the presidency for personal gain. The event was arranged by the president’s business partners to directly enrich the first family, even as Mr. Trump spoke that evening behind a stand emblazoned with the presidential seal. 这场米姆币晚宴引发了民主党人、政府监督机构甚至部分共和党人的强烈批评，他们认为此举存在利用总统职位谋取私利的嫌疑。这场由特朗普的商业伙伴操盘的活动被指直接为第一家庭敛财，特朗普当晚则站在有总统徽章的讲台发表讲话。 Bidders competed to accumulate the largest holding of the coin over several weeks. The top 220 won a dinner with Mr. Trump, and the top 25 also got a “V.I.P.” tour of the White House. 竞拍者需在数周内积累最多数量的该米姆币。排名前220的买家获得了与特朗普共进晚餐的机会，前25名还得到了白宫的贵宾参观资格。 The buyers used self-adopted nicknames that disguised their identities, but The Times obtained copies of several pages of an official sign-in sheet for the dinner and over the past two weeks has been examining the biographies of many of the attendees. 购买者们使用化名来隐藏身份，但《纽约时报》获得了晚宴官方签到表的部分副本，并在过去两周核查了多名参与者的背景。 Mr. He, using the nickname Sky, owned $3.7 million worth of the memecoin, public transaction records show, at the time the contest ended. He was ranked as the seventh-largest buyer of the cryptocurrency, which entitled him to a gold-colored V.I.P. wristband for the event. 公开交易记录显示，化名“天空(Sky)”的何天鹰在活动截止时持有价值370万美元的米姆币，成为该加密货币的第七大买家，由此获得了晚宴的金色贵宾手环。 The day after the dinner at Mr. Trump’s golf club, Mr. He was observed by a reporter from The Times entering the White House for the tour that had been set up by Mr. Trump’s business partner Bill Zanker, who created the Trump memecoin. 在特朗普的高尔夫俱乐部晚宴次日，《纽约时报》记者目睹何天鹰进入白宫参观，该行程由特朗普的商业伙伴、特朗普米姆币的创始人比尔·赞克安排。 特朗普的商业伙伴比尔·赞克创建了特朗普米姆币。 Jason Andrew for The New York Times Mr. Zanker and the Trump family share in the revenues from the memecoin business, which has already totaled at least $320 million, according to an estimate by Chainalysis, a crypto forensics group. 据区块链数据提供商Chainalysis的估算，赞克与特朗普家族从该米姆币业务中获得的收益已超3.2亿美元。 After the tour, Mr. He, using a social media account under his Sky pseudonym, posted a series of photos from the dinner and White House tour, which he electronically modified to cover his face. The Times was able to establish his identity through publicly available information, including photos and biographical information on his company website. 参观结束后，何天鹰用“天空”这个化名的社交媒体账号发布了一系列关于晚宴和参观白宫的照片，但他对自己的面部做了遮盖处理。《纽约时报》通过其公司网站公开的照片及履历确定了他的身份。 Mr. He made several waves of purchases during the three weeks of the memecoin contest, according to the transaction records. 交易记录显示，何天鹰在米姆币竞赛的三周时间里多次大额购入该币。 “May I have the pleasure?” he wrote in one social media post, showing off his standing as one of the top owners of the memecoin, several days before the contest ended. “不知我是否有此荣幸？”竞赛结束前几天，他在一条社交媒体帖子中写道，炫耀自己作为米姆币顶级持有者之一的地位。 Mr. He declined to comment as he entered the White House, and he did not respond to follow-up emails, calls and text messages from The Times. 面对《纽约时报》记者在他进入白宫参观时的提问，何天鹰拒绝置评，后续也未回复邮件、电话及短信。 The dinner invitation sent to Mr. He stands in contrast to the statement Mr. Trump issued on Wednesday, arguing that his administration needed to urgently move to block visas for certain Chinese nationals, including those attending Harvard University, as “the Chinese Communist Party has sent thousands of midcareer and senior bureaucrats” to the United States. He said this order was for “crucial national security reasons.” 向何天鹰发出的晚宴邀请与特朗普上周三发表的声明形成鲜明对比。特朗普在声明中称，美国需要紧急采取行动，禁止向包括哈佛大学学生在内的某些中国公民发放签证，因为“中国共产党向美国输送了数以千计的中高级官员”。他说，这一命令是出于“关键的国家安全原因”。 A senior White House official, who asked not to be named because of the sensitive nature of the matter, said this week that the presence of He at the dinner and White House tour was unfortunate and that overall, the meme coin dinner had created unnecessary questions. 一名白宫高级官员本周表示，何天鹰出席晚宴和白宫参观令人遗憾，总的来说，米姆币晚宴制造了不必要的问题。由于此事的敏感性，这名官员要求不透露姓名。 But the White House official added that it had occurred because Trump “carelessly committed” to his longtime friend and business partner Zanker that he would be a part of it. The official added that Trump was not notified who would be attending and was unaware of He’s background. 但这位白宫官员补充说，发生这种情况是因为特朗普“大意地”向他的老朋友和商业伙伴赞克承诺，自己将参与其中。这位官员还说，特朗普没有被告知谁将出席，也不知道何天鹰的背景。 Supporting the Party 支持中共 北京的人民大会堂。 The mission of the Fangshan District division of the C.P.P.C.C., which lists Mr. He as a member, is to “uphold the overall leadership of the Communist Party of China and strengthen the common ideological and political foundation,” the group says in describing one of its meetings this year. 中国政协房山区委员会在描述今年的一次会议时说，其任务是“坚持中国共产党的全面领导，共同思想政治基础更加牢固”，何天鹰是房山区委员会的一名委员。 C.P.P.C.C. committees are advisory bodies to China’s rubber-stamp legislatures at the national, provincial and, like Fangshan, district or county levels. Members can make policy recommendations to the legislative bodies, called People’s Congresses. 中国人民政治协商会议是中国国家、省、区、县等橡皮图章立法机构的咨询机构。政协委员可向立法机构，即人民代表大会提出政策建议。 These committees are part of the Communist Party’s United Front system, which is devised to co-opt broad segments of the population, including entrepreneurs like Mr. He, into supporting and carrying out the party’s policies. The C.P.P.C.C. bodies also act as networking clubs. 这些委员会是共产党统战系统的一部分，该系统旨在吸收包括何天鹰这样的企业家在内的广大民众，支持和执行党的政策。全国政协各机构还充当联络俱乐部。 “When you are a C.P.P.C.C. member, you are expected to be a part of the United Front system and carry the water where the party asks you to,” said Peter Mattis, the president of the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation who studies the United Front. “如果你是一名政协委员，你就应该成为统战体系的一部分，在党的要求下负责任，”研究统战问题的华盛顿詹姆斯敦基金会主席彼得·马蒂斯说。 The Times turned up documentation on Chinese government websites showing Mr. He’s participation in the C.P.P.C.C. group, as well as an attendance list for the committee’s gathering in Beijing in January that included Mr. He’s name. 时报在中国政府网站上找到了显示何天鹰参加政协小组的文件，以及该委员会1月份在北京召开会议的出席名单，名单上有何天鹰的名字。 北京的一处跳蚤市场，待售的扑克、毛主席语录和老照片。 Chinese government records show that Mr. He is the majority owner of a Beijing-based investment firm, TechSharpe (Beijing) Capital Management Company, which says on its website that it uses artificial intelligence to “conduct quantitative investment in stocks.” 中国政府记录显示，何天鹰是一家位于北京的投资公司天算量化（北京）资本管理公司的大股东，该公司在其网站上表示，它使用人工智能“对股票进行量化投资”。 Recently, Mr. He has also promoted a crypto firm called LuckyFuture and has interacted on social media with Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the giant crypto exchange Binance. In a social media post, responding to an inquiry from The Times, Mr. Zhao said he learned about LuckyFuture after Mr. He reached out to him in the last few weeks. (A Binance spokesman did not respond to a request for comment.) 最近，何天鹰还宣传了一家名为LuckyFuture的加密公司，并在社交媒体上与大型加密交易所币安的创始人赵长鹏进行了互动。赵长鹏在一篇社交媒体帖子中回应时报的提问说，他是在何天鹰过去几周联系他之后才了解LuckyFuture的。（币安发言人没有回应置评请求。） Mr. He came to the United States from China about a decade ago to get a master’s degree in finance at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, before returning to China and becoming active in the C.P.P.C.C., which is noted in his TechSharpe biography. This made Mr. He just the kind of student Mr. Trump is now targeting. 何天鹰在大约十年前从中国来到美国，在麻省理工学院攻读金融硕士学位，之后回到中国，开始参与政协事务。他在天算量化的简介中提到了这一点。他正是特朗普如今所针对的那类学生。 But there was no hint of those kinds of fears in gracious invitations sent via email in mid-May to the dinner guests. 但是，在5月中旬通过电子邮件向出席晚宴的客人发出的亲切邀请中，并没有显示出这种担忧的迹象。 “Congratulations!” said the notice sent to Mr. He, with a photo illustration of a muscular, smiling Mr. Trump at a dinner table, with an American flag on his lapel. “We can’t wait to see you at the Gala Dinner.” (Mr. He posted a copy of these emails on his social media account.) “恭喜你！”发给何天鹰的通知中写道，还配了一张照片，上面是一个身形魁梧、面带微笑的特朗普坐在餐桌旁，翻领上别着美国国旗徽章。“我们迫不及待地想在晚宴上见到你。（何天鹰在自己的社交媒体账户上发布了这些邮件的副本。） A Table of Foreign Visitors 外国来宾席 出席晚宴的还有中国出生的亿万富翁孙宇晨，他是特朗普米姆币的最大购买者。 According to a video taken at the dinner, the V.I.P.s at just one table illustrated how many of the guests had traveled from overseas, including from China. 根据晚宴上拍摄的一段视频，仅一张桌子边的贵宾就足以说明有多少客人来自海外，包括中国。 Mr. He’s dining companions included Justin Sun, the Chinese-born billionaire who was the contest’s single largest buyer and one of the largest investors in the Trump family’s other crypto venture, World Liberty Financial. 与何天鹰同桌的人包括中国出生的亿万富翁孙宇晨，他是本次竞购最大的单一买家，也是特朗普家族另一家加密企业“世界自由金融”的最大投资者之一。 Mr. Sun also has experience as a C.P.P.C.C. member. In 2016 he was named as a delegate for a committee in a district in Guangzhou, a city in southern China. Only 26 at the time, he was among the youngest people in the country to sit on a C.P.P.C.C. body. 孙宇晨也担任过政协委员。2016年，他被任命为中国南方城市广州某区的政协委员。当时年仅26岁的他是中国最年轻的政协委员之一。 “I feel that the responsibility is very heavy, and I must strive to adapt to the new role as soon as possible,” Mr. Sun was quoted in state media as saying at the time. (His representatives did not respond to a request for comment.) 官方媒体曾援引孙宇晨的话：“感觉责任很重大，一定争取尽快适应新的角色。”（他的代表没有回应置评请求。） Also seated at the table were Cheng Lu, a Singapore-based crypto investor, who told The Times in an interview outside the White House that he bought a large amount of the family’s memecoin because he wanted a chance to privately meet with Mr. Trump. 同桌的还有新加坡的加密货币投资者路成（音），他在白宫外接受采访时告诉时报，他购买了大量特朗普家族的米姆币，因为他希望能有机会私下与特朗普会面。 Sheldon Xia, the founder of BitMart, a cryptocurrency trading platform backed by China-based Fenbushi Capital, joined them at the table, along with Sangrok Oh, the chief executive of Hyperithm, a Seoul- and Tokyo-based firm that manages digital assets for institutional investors. 此外还有中国分布式资本支持的加密货币交易平台BitMart的创始人夏尔特与Hyperithm的首席执行官吴尚禄（音），Hyperithm是一家总部位于首尔和东京的公司，为机构投资者管理数字资产。 Guests invited to the dinner were “required to fill out a brief form as part of the security background check to gain entry to the event,” according to an email sent to the winners. The questionnaire was created with a service called CryptoComply offered by the New York-based firm Canaria Consulting. It requested information such as name, date of birth and place of residence. 根据发给受邀者的电子邮件，受邀参加晚宴的客人“需要填写一张简单的表格，作为安全背景调查的一部分，才能参加活动”。这份问卷是由纽约加那利咨询公司提供的一项名为CryptoComply的服务创建的。它要求提供姓名、出生日期和居住地等资料。 5月23日，米姆币晚宴的客人离开白宫。排名前220的购买者赢得了与特朗普共进晚餐的机会，前25名还得到了白宫的贵宾参观资格。 The 25 top Trump memecoin holders had their names submitted to a background check system called White House Worker and Visitor Entry System, a government official told The Times. This system compares the names of the pending visitors with government databases that include terrorist watch lists and lists of known criminals. 一名政府官员告诉时报，持有特朗普米姆币最多的25人的的名字被提交给了一个名为“白宫工作人员和访客入境系统”的背景调查系统。该系统会将这些待定访客的名字与政府数据库进行比对，数据库中包括恐怖分子观察名单和已知罪犯名单。 “The U.S. Secret Service is responsible for vetting all White House visitors and guests, and we fully trust their process in doing so,” said Ms. Leavitt, the White House press secretary. “特勤局负责审查所有白宫访客和客人，我们完全信任他们的审查程序，”白宫新闻秘书莱维特说。 Some guests at the dinner said they were surprised at how lax the security appeared at the event. People not on the guest list were in certain cases allowed to enter the golf club grounds that evening and remain there after Mr. Trump arrived, The Times also confirmed. 一些出席晚宴的客人说，他们对宴会上的安全措施如此松懈感到惊讶。时报还证实，在某些情况下，不在宾客名单上的人当晚被允许进入高尔夫俱乐部场地，并在特朗普抵达后留在那里。 “I expected more from the security questions,” said Nicholas Pinto, a Florida resident and crypto trader who attended the dinner. “It was very basic. And next thing you know, I am standing there in the room with President Trump.” “没想到安保问题就这么点，”出席晚宴的佛罗里达居民和加密货币交易员尼古拉斯·平托说。“都是很基本的东西。然后我就可以和特朗普总统在同一个房间里了。” David A. Fahrenthold、Dylan Freedman和Eileen Sullivan对本文有报道贡献。Susan C. Beachy有研究贡献。 Eric Lipton是时报调查记者，他深入报道从五角大楼开支到有毒化学品等一系列议题。 David Yaffe-Bellany自纽约撰写加密货币行业报道。他的联系方式：davidyb@nytimes.com。 傅才德(Michael Forsythe)是时报调查记者，常驻纽约。他此前曾驻中国，广泛报道该国各类议题。 Devon Lum是时报视觉调查团队的记者，主要负责开源技术和视觉分析。 Jiawei Wang是《纽约时报》视频记者，常驻首尔。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID FRENCH2025年6月10日 Eric Thayer/Associated Press It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Trump administration is spoiling for a fight on America’s streets. On Saturday, after a protest against Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests degenerated into violence, the administration reacted as if the country were on the brink of war. 我们很难不得出这样的结论：特朗普政府正急于在美国街头掀起战斗。周六，一场反对移民和海关执法局逮捕行动的抗议演变成暴力事件，政府的反应就好像这个国家正处于战争边缘。 The violence was unacceptable. Civil disobedience is honorable; violence is beyond the pale. But so far, thankfully, the violence has been localized and, crucially, well within the capacity of state and city officials to manage. 暴力是不可接受的。非暴力反抗是光荣的；暴力是不可容忍的。但值得庆幸的是，到目前为止，暴力只是局部的，而且至关重要的是，这些暴力事件完全在州和市政府官员的管理能力之内。 But don’t tell that to the Trump administration. Its language was out of control. 但不要把这话告诉特朗普政府。它的言论已经无所顾忌。 Stephen Miller, one of President Trump’s closest advisers and the single most important architect (aside from Trump himself) of the administration’s immigration policies, posted one word: “Insurrection.” 史蒂芬·米勒是特朗普总统最亲密的顾问之一，也是政府移民政策（除了特朗普本人以外）最重要的设计师，他发的帖子上只有一个词：“暴动”。 Vice President JD Vance wrote on X, “One of the main technical issues in the immigration judicial battles is whether Biden’s border crisis counted as an ‘invasion.’” That statement set the stage. He wants courts to believe we’re facing an invasion, and any disturbance will do to make his point. “So now,” Vance continued, “we have foreign nationals with no legal right to be in the country waving foreign flags and assaulting law enforcement. If only we had a good word for that …” 副总统JD·万斯在X上写道：“移民司法斗争中的一个主要技术问题是拜登的边境危机是否算作‘入侵’。’”这句话奠定了基础。他想让法庭相信我们正面临入侵，任何骚乱都能证明他的观点。“所以现在，”万斯继续写道，“我们有一些没有合法进入这个国家的外国人挥舞着外国国旗，袭击执法部门。要是我们有个合适的词来形容就好了……” Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, posted his own screed on X, declaring that the Department of Defense “is mobilizing the National Guard IMMEDIATELY to support federal law enforcement in Los Angeles. And, if violence continues, active duty Marines at Camp Pendleton will also be mobilized — they are on high alert.” 国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在X上发表长文，宣称国防部“正在立即动员国民警卫队支持洛杉矶的联邦执法”。如果暴力事件继续，还可以调动彭德尔顿军营的现役海军陆战队，他们处于高度戒备状态。” Trump posted on Truth Social, “If Governor Gavin Newscum, of California, and Mayor Karen Bass, of Los Angeles, can’t do their jobs, which everyone knows they can’t, then the Federal Government will step in and solve the problem, RIOTS & LOOTERS, the way it should be solved!!!” 特朗普在Truth Social上发帖称：“如果加州州长加文·纽森和洛杉矶市长凯伦·巴斯不能做好他们的工作，大家都知道他们做不到，那么联邦政府将介入，以解决问题应有的方式解决骚乱和抢劫！！” That was Saturday. On Sunday evening, he wrote on Truth Social that he was “directing Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and Attorney General Pam Bondi, in coordination with all other relevant Departments and Agencies, to take all such action necessary to liberate Los Angeles from the Migrant Invasion, and put an end to these Migrant riots.” 那是周六的事。周日晚上，他在Truth Social上写道，他“指示国土安全部长克里斯蒂·诺姆、国防部长皮特·海格塞斯和司法部长帕姆·邦迪与所有其他相关部门和机构协调，采取一切必要行动，将洛杉矶从移民入侵中解放出来，并结束这些移民骚乱”。 Trump called 2,000 members of the National Guard into federal service and is deploying them to Los Angeles. Neither Bass nor Newsom asked for this intervention. The State of California possesses immense resources to deal with urban unrest, and Trump barely gave it an opportunity to try. 特朗普将2000名国民警卫队员调入联邦役，并将他们部署到洛杉矶。巴斯和纽森都没有要求进行这一干预。加州拥有巨大的资源来应对城市动荡，特朗普几乎没有给它尝试的机会。 In fact, on Sunday evening, Newsom asked Trump to rescind the deployment, calling it a “serious breach of state sovereignty.” 事实上，周日晚上，纽森要求特朗普撤销部署，称这是“严重侵犯州主权”。 If you look closely, however, the Trump administration’s actions don’t quite match its alarmism. Trump deployed the National Guard, but he did not invoke the Insurrection Act, and that is a very important legal distinction. 然而，如果你仔细观察，特朗普政府的行动与它的危言耸听并不完全相符。特朗普部署了国民警卫队，但他没有援引《叛乱法》，这是一个非常重要的法律区别。 As Steven Vladeck, a Georgetown University law professor, observed in an excellent and informative post on Substack, Trump instead ordered the Guard to Los Angeles under a different statute, which permits the president to call out the Guard when “there is a rebellion or danger of a rebellion against the authority of the government of the United States.” 乔治敦大学法学教授史蒂文·弗拉德克在Substack上发表了一篇翔实而精彩的文章，他指出，特朗普根据另一项法令命令国民警卫队前往洛杉矶，该法令允许总统在“发生叛乱或有反叛美国政府权威的危险”时出动国民警卫队。 Under this statute, troops have the authority to “suppress the rebellion,” but they do not have the kind of sweeping law enforcement authority that soldiers would possess if the president deployed troops under the Insurrection Act. 根据这一法令，军队有权“镇压叛乱”，但他们并不像总统根据《叛乱法》部署的士兵那样拥有全面的执法权。 As Vladeck noted, “Nothing that the president did Saturday night would, for instance, authorize these federalized National Guard troops to conduct their own immigration raids; make their own immigration arrests.” Instead, Trump’s order “federalizes 2,000 California National Guard troops for the sole purpose of protecting the relevant D.H.S. personnel against attacks.” 弗拉德克指出，“例如，总统周六晚上所做的一切都不会授权这些联邦役国民警卫队员自行发起移民搜查和逮捕。”相反，特朗普的命令“将2000名加州国民警卫队士兵联邦化，唯一目的是保护国土安全部相关人员免受攻击。” The administration’s language was extreme. Its actions, so far, have been more limited. But that’s small comfort. The potential next step is plain to see. If the administration (in its sole discretion) believes that this first, limited deployment is insufficient, then it will escalate. It will shout “Insurrection!” and “Migrant invasion!” to justify more military control and perhaps the invocation of the Insurrection Act. 特朗普政府的措辞很极端。而它的行动到目前为止相对有限。但这只是小小的安慰。潜在的下一步是显而易见的。如果政府（单方面）认为这第一次有限的部署是不够的，那么它会将升级。它会高喊：“叛乱！”和“移民入侵！”来证明更多的军事控制是合理的，也许还可以援引《叛乱法》。 As I wrote before, the Insurrection Act’s dangerously broad language gives the president all the legal authority he needs to put tens of thousands of troops in the nation’s streets. Trump has publicly regretted not using more force to suppress disorder in 2020, and his allies have reportedly made plans for him to invoke the Insurrection Act during his second term. 正如我之前所写的那样，《叛乱法》危险的宽泛措辞赋予了总统所需要的一切法律权力，可以在全国的街道上部署数万军队。特朗普曾公开后悔没有在2020年动用更多武力镇压混乱，据报道，他的盟友已经计划让他在第二任期内援引《叛乱法》。 It’s worth asking: Does Trump want protesters to get hurt? Recall that Mark Esper, a former Trump secretary of defense, has said that in 2020 Trump asked Gen. Mark Milley, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “Can’t you just shoot them, just shoot them in the legs or something?” Esper took his comment as both a suggestion and a question. 值得一问的是：特朗普想伤害抗议者吗？回想一下，特朗普的前国防部长马克·埃斯珀曾说，2020年，特朗普问当时的参谋长联席会议主席马克·米利上将，“你就不能朝他们开枪吗，就朝他们的腿或其他地方开枪？”埃斯珀认为，这既是建议，也是提问。 We also can’t forget that this conflict is unfolding against the backdrop of a war of words between Trump and Newsom. The administration is weighing a broad cancellation of federal funds for California, and Newsom has floated withholding California tax dollars from the federal government. (Californians pay more to the federal government in taxes than the state receives in federal funding.) 我们也不能忘记，这场冲突是在特朗普和纽森之间的口水战的背景下展开的。特朗普政府正在考虑全面取消对加州的联邦资金，纽森也提出了加州停止向联邦政府缴税的想法。（加州人向联邦政府缴纳的税款多于该州通过联邦拨款获得的资金。） It’s too early to declare a constitutional crisis, and in any case, debating the label we attach to any new event can distract us from focusing fully on the event itself. But each new day brings us fresh evidence of a deeply troubling trend: America is no longer a stable country, and it is growing less stable by the day. 现在宣布宪法危机还为时过早，而且无论如何，每发生一件事，就去讨论应该给它打个什么标签，只会分散我们对事件本身的注意。但是，我们每天都在得到新的证据，证明一个令人深感不安的趋势：美国不再是一个稳定的国家，而且越来越不稳定。 David French是时报专栏作家，撰写关于法律、文化、宗教和武装冲突的文章。他是一名参加过“伊拉克自由行动”的老兵，并曾担任宪法诉讼律师。他的最新著作是《Divided We Fall: America’s Secession Threat and How to Restore Our Nation》。欢迎在Thread上关注他：@davidfrenchjag。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
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