DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, RIVER AKIRA DAVIS2025年4月4日周四，台湾台北的一家电子产品商店。 Ann Wang/Reuters Laptop computers from Taiwan, wine from Italy, frozen shrimp from India, Nike sneakers from Vietnam and Irish butter. 来自台湾的笔记本电脑，来自意大利的葡萄酒，来自印度的冷冻虾，越南生产的耐克运动鞋，还有爱尔兰黄油。 These products are found in homes across the United States, a testament to America’s enduring role as a champion of free trade and its standing as the most lucrative market for goods from around the world. 这些产品遍布全美各地的家庭，彰显着美国多年来作为自由贸易捍卫者的身份，也证明了它作为全球最具吸引力市场的地位。 They are now among the vast categories of goods subject to additional taxes after President Trump, on Wednesday, imposed universal tariffs on all U.S. trade partners as well as additional, heavier duties on 60 countries he deemed the “worst offenders” of unfair trade practices. 在特朗普总统周三宣布对所有美国贸易伙伴实施普遍关税，并对他认定为“不公平贸易行为最严重”的60个国家额外征收更高关税后，这些产品如今都名列需要缴纳额外关税的商品类别之中。 In a sharp shift away from decades of trade policy, Mr. Trump instituted a 10 percent base line duty on all goods imported into the United States. In addition, other nations will be charged a so-called reciprocal tariff at an even higher rate next week. 特朗普对所有进口至美国的商品统一征收10%的基准关税，这与美国数十年来的政策背道而驰。此外，从下周起，美国还将对其他国家征收更高的所谓“对等关税”。 For the European Union and China, the two largest U.S. trading partners, the White House imposed tariffs of 20 percent and 34 percent. The additional levy on China will be added to a 20 percent tariff previously imposed by Mr. Trump. 白宫对美国最大的两个贸易伙伴欧盟和中国分别征收20%和34%的关税。其中，对中国的额外关税将在特朗普此前实施的20%关税基础上追加。 Even close allies such as Japan and South Korea were not spared. Neither were countries like Australia and Brazil that buy more from America than they sell to it. 即便是日本和韩国这样的亲密盟友也未能幸免。而澳大利亚和巴西等从美国购买的商品多于对美出口的国家也受到影响。 特朗普总统周三在白宫宣布关税。 The announcement, which Mr. Trump had hailed as America’s “Liberation Day,” sent shock waves across the world and raised the specter of a global trade war. Stock markets tumbled on the news, as investors were surprised at the size and scope of the tariffs. 特朗普称赞这是美国的“解放日”，但这一宣布震惊了全世界，并引发了全球贸易战的担忧。股市应声下跌，关税的规模和范围令投资者感到措手不及。 In less than three months, Mr. Trump has pronounced tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China along with import duties on steel, aluminum, cars and car parts. The executive order on Wednesday included exemptions for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and lumber. But analysts think those are not reprieves; they are products next to be targeted. 在不到三个月的时间里，特朗普宣布了对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收的关税，还有对钢铁、铝、汽车及汽车零部件加征进口税。周三发布的行政命令对半导体、药品和木材给予了豁免，但分析人士认为，这些行业并未真正被排除在外，而是下一轮关税的潜在目标。 Allies and adversaries are scrambling to make sense of Mr. Trump’s tariff barrage, which has lifted U.S. import duties to their highest levels in more than a century and showed no sign of relenting. Some threatened to retaliate. Others openly pressed for negotiations, while some quietly pushed for concessions through back channels. 盟友与对手都在努力试图弄清特朗普的关税攻势究竟是怎么回事，这已经使美国进口税率升至一个多世纪以来最高水平，并且没有任何放缓迹象。有些国家威胁进行报复，另一些公开要求谈判，还有的通过秘密渠道寻求让步。 China accused America of “unilateral bullying,” pledging to take “firm countermeasures to safeguard its own rights and interests.” South Korea convened an emergency task force and vowed to “pour all government resources to overcome a trade crisis.” In Brazil, the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said it was evaluating retaliatory measures. 中国指责美国“单边霸凌”，并誓言将采取“坚决反制措施，以维护自身权利和利益”。韩国召开紧急工作小组会议，承诺“动用一切政府资源，以克服贸易危机”。巴西总统卢拉的政府则表示正在评估反制措施。 巴西国会周三批准立法，授权总统采取报复行动。 In an early morning address on Thursday, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said that the global economy will “massively suffer” from the tariffs. While urging negotiation, she said the bloc is preparing further countermeasures in addition to the retaliatory tariffs it had already prepared for the earlier tax on foreign steel and aluminum. 欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩在周四早晨的讲话中表示，这些关税将使全球经济“遭受重大损害”。她呼吁进行谈判，但同时也表示，除了此前针对美国对外国钢铁和铝征收的关税而准备的报复性关税之外，欧盟还在准备进一步的反制措施。 Asia was particularly hard hit by Mr. Trump’s plan. Vietnam, a beneficiary of companies moving production out of China during the first Trump presidency, got slapped with a 46 percent levy. Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia were all dealt import duties of more than 30 percent. The White House put a 26 percent tariff on imports from India. 亚洲受特朗普的关税政策冲击尤为严重。越南是特朗普第一任总统任期内企业将生产迁出中国的受益者，如今被征收46%的关税。台湾、泰国和印度尼西亚的进口商品分别被征收超过30%的关税，印度商品税率为26%。 For decades, exports have served as a pathway to economic prosperity for developing Asian countries emerging from conflict, crisis or poverty. The latest tariffs punished countries like Taiwan and Japan that have succeeded in modernizing their economies through trade, and they also darkened the prospects for poorer nations like Cambodia and Bangladesh still looking to follow that route. 数十年来，出口一直是亚洲发展中国家摆脱冲突、危机或贫困，走向经济繁荣的重要途径。最新关税不仅惩罚了台湾和日本等通过贸易实现现代化的经济体，也使柬埔寨和孟加拉国等仍在寻求这一道路的贫困国家前景更加黯淡。 Cambodia, a producer of clothing and footwear, was hit with a 49 percent tariff. The United States is the country’s largest export market. 服装和鞋类生产国柬埔寨被征收49%的关税。美国是该国最大的出口市场。 “As a small country, we just want to survive,” said Sok Eysan, a spokesman for Cambodia’s ruling Cambodian People’s Party. 柬埔寨执政党人民党发言人速恩山表示：“作为一个小国，我们只想生存下去。” 柬埔寨一家中资纺织厂面临49%的关税。 Mr. Trump has blamed the sale of inexpensive goods from these countries for the hollowing out of America’s manufacturing sector. But they have also helped to keep inflation at bay, lowering prices for U.S. consumers. 特朗普指责来自这些国家的廉价商品导致美国制造业空心化。然而，这些商品同时也有助于控制通货膨胀，对美国消费者来说，它们降低了物价。 Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, D.C., said the tariffs would hit several developing countries hardest, while encouraging much of the world to move more quickly toward an order without the United States at its center. 华盛顿昆西负责任治国方略研究所全球南方项目主任萨朗·希多尔表示，受这些关税打击最严重的将是几个发展中国家，同时还会鼓励世界大部分地区更快地走向一个不再以美国为中心的秩序。 “When it comes to trade, we are very much in a multipolar world, and alternative markets exist. Though of course there will be pain and transaction costs in diversification,” he said. “谈到贸易，我们处于一个多极世界，存在替代市场。当然，多元化会带来痛苦和交易成本，”他说。 Anthony Albanese, the prime minister of Australia, said his country would not respond with retaliatory tariffs, vowing Australia would not “join a race to the bottom that leads to higher prices and slower growth.” 澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯表示，他的国家不会以报复性关税作为回应，并发誓澳大利亚不会“加入导致价格上涨和增长放缓的竞相压价”。 In Japan, officials and trade experts were caught off guard by the size of the new tariff the country will face — 24 percent. It was particularly jarring given Japan’s average tariff on nonagricultural goods is among the lowest globally. Japan called the tariff “extremely regrettable” and vowed to continue seeking an exemption. 在日本，官员和贸易专家对该国将面临的24%新关税规模措手不及。鉴于日本对非农产品的平均关税为全球最低，这尤其令人震惊。日本称该关税“令人极为遗憾”，并誓言将继续寻求豁免。 Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has pledged to increase Japanese investment to roughly $1 trillion, focusing on purchasing more U.S. products like liquefied natural gas. 日本首相石破茂承诺将增加日本投资至约1万亿美元，重点购买更多美国产品，例如液化天然气。 三得利位于日本山崎的一家酿酒厂，该公司首席执行官表示，他相信日本将能够通过与特朗普政府的谈判降低关税。 Speaking before the latest tariffs were announced, Takeshi Niinami, chief executive of Suntory Holdings, a Japanese beverage giant known for premium whiskey brands, said he believed the tariffs could be negotiated down because Japan is the biggest foreign investor in the United States. 在最新关税宣布之前，以高端威士忌品牌闻名的日本饮料巨头三得利控股首席执行官新浪刚史表示，他相信关税可以通过谈判降低，因为日本是美国最大的外国投资者。 “A period of chaos may ensue,” he said. “But ultimately, the situation will stabilize.” “可能会出现一段混乱时期，”他说。“但最终，局势会稳定下来。” Exiger, a data analytics firm, calculated that Trump’s announcements would result in $600 billion of new U.S. tariffs per year. The bulk of the levy would come from 10 countries, with Chinese exports accounting for a quarter of the additional tariffs at $149 billion. Vietnamese goods would face $63 billion, Taiwanese products $37 billion, and Japanese exports $36 billion in tariffs. German and Irish goods combined would face $41 billion in additional levies. 根据数据分析公司Exiger的计算，特朗普宣布的措施每年将给美国带来6000亿美元的新关税。大部分征税将来自10个国家，中国出口占新增关税的四分之一，为1490亿美元。越南商品将面临630亿美元的关税，台湾产品面临370亿美元，日本出口面临360亿美元。德国和爱尔兰商品合计将面临410亿美元的额外征税。 During the first Trump presidency, tech companies moved some production to Vietnam to protect against a possible trade war with China. One-third of Vietnam’s exports are now electronics. 在特朗普首次担任总统期间，科技公司将部分生产转移到越南，以防范可能与中国发生的贸易战。现在，越南三分之一的出口产品是电子产品。 Apple moved manufacturing of AirPods, watches and iPads over the last several years to Vietnam. It also shifted some iPhone production to India, after years of relying solely on Chinese factories. 过去几年，苹果将AirPods、手表和iPad的生产转移到越南。该公司还将部分iPhone生产转移到印度，此前多年该公司的生产完全依赖中国工厂。 South Korean conglomerate Samsung Electronics has invested more than $20 billion in Vietnam since it started opening factories there nearly two decades ago. It now produces more goods in Vietnam than China. Last year, it produced roughly $70 billion worth of goods at its Vietnamese factories, most of it for export. 自近二十年前在越南开设工厂以来，韩国企业集团三星电子已在越南投资超过200亿美元。它现在在越南生产的商品比中国还多。去年，该公司在越南工厂生产了价值约700亿美元的商品，其中大部分用于出口。 越南海防的一家电子工厂。 Mr. Trump’s policies are also complicating decisions for smaller American businesses. Brenden McMorrow, co-founder of Move2Play, a toymaker based in Torrance, Calif., said the company built all of its products in China since it started about nine years ago. But it began to consider factories in Vietnam or India to protect against Chinese import tariffs. 特朗普的政策也使美国小型企业的决策变得复杂。总部位于加州托伦斯的玩具制造商Move2Play的联合创始人布伦登·麦克莫罗表示，自大约九年前成立以来，该公司的所有产品都在中国生产。但为了避免受到中国进口关税的影响，该公司开始考虑在越南或印度建厂。 In Vietnam, it found that the factories run by Chinese companies using materials from China were not much cheaper. Instead, it decided to try a test run of manufacturing one of its toys in India — a decision that Mr. McMorrow said looks better with the lofty tariff imposed on Vietnam. It studied whether it could manufacture in the United States, but he said that the costs were roughly five times higher than in China. 在越南，该公司发现，那些中国公司运营、使用中国原材料的工厂并不便宜多少。因此，公司决定在印度试生产一款玩具——麦克莫罗说，鉴于越南面临的高额关税，在印度试生产的决定现在看起来显得更明智了。该公司研究了是否可以在美国生产，但他说成本大约是在中国的五倍。 And despite the higher cost of tariffs, he doesn’t see U.S. production as any more viable now. 尽管关税成本较高，但他认为现在在美国生产并不可行。 “I don’t think it really makes sense to invest in trying to do a lot of this manufacturing in the U.S. if the next president comes in and just reverses course on all these tariffs, then you’re going to be in a terrible spot,” he said. “It makes more sense to just kind of stick to where we’re currently manufacturing and not make big risky moves.” “我认为，如果下一任总统上任后突然取消所有关税，那么在美国投资大量制造确实没有意义，那你就将陷入困境，”他说。“更合理的做法是坚持我们目前的制造模式，不要采取冒险的重大举措。” Damien Cave、Jack Nicas、Victoria Kim、Alex Travelli、Choe Sang-Hun、黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)和David Pierson对本文有报道贡献。 Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者，报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 River Akira Davis驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI2025年4月3日 The question posed to Wen Han, founder of the electric truck maker Windrose Technology, was a simple one: Is it accurate to call the firm a Chinese company? 对电动卡车制造商苇渡科技的创始人韩文提出的问题很简单：称该公司为中国公司是否准确？ After some rambling, Mr. Han settled on an answer: “I would describe it as Chinese origin.” 闲谈几句之后，韩文确定了答案：“我会说它是源自中国的公司。” There’s a reason it felt like a trick question: Windrose’s investors include an Australian property group, U.S. venture capital financiers and Chinese state-owned funds. It is now based in Belgium. But at its heart, Windrose packs China’s significant advantages in making electric vehicles. 这个问题听起来像是陷阱，这是有原因的：苇渡科技的投资者包括一家澳大利亚房地产集团、美国风险投资机构和中国国有基金。它现在的总部设在比利时。但从本质上讲，苇渡科技凝聚了中国在制造电动汽车方面的显著优势。 Mr. Han wants to use that edge to sell long-haul trucks globally. He is intent on taking his company public in New York, saying he plans to file the initial paperwork within the next month to raise up to at least $400 million. 韩文希望利用这一优势在全球范围内销售长途卡车。他打算让他的公司在纽约上市，他说他计划在下个月提交初步的文件，以期筹集至少4亿美元。 While the business proposition is simple, the execution is anything but — complicated by geopolitics, trade tensions and a surge of protectionism. Mr. Han is mindful of what he calls Windrose’s “Chineseness.” 虽然这个商业主张很简单，但执行起来却不然——地缘政治、贸易紧张局势和保护主义抬头使其变得复杂。韩文很注意他所称的苇渡科技的“中国性”。 Born in China’s coal country, Mr. Han, 34, grew up when Chinese globalization did not trigger the kind of political distrust in the United States that it does now. He attended Williams College in Massachusetts and worked at the American hedge fund Bridgewater Associates. His life has spanned both countries. Now, he is pushing for Windrose to do the same in a fracturing world. 现年34岁的韩文出生在中国的产煤区，在他成长的年代，中国的全球化还没有像现在这样在美国引发政治不信任。他曾就读于马萨诸塞州的威廉姆斯学院，并在美国对冲基金桥水公司工作。他的生活横跨这两个国家。现在，他正在推动苇渡科技在一个分崩离析的世界里做同样的事情。 “China will never be America’s best friend, not in our lifetimes,” he said. “However, China doesn’t have to be the enemy forever, and not everyone from China has to be the enemy.” “在我们有生之年，中国永远不会成为美国最好的朋友，”他说。“但中国不必永远是敌人，也不是每个来自中国的人都必须是敌人。” Windrose is looking to upend the trucking industry’s century-old reliance on diesel. It relies on China’s advanced electric vehicle supply chain of batteries and components, a byproduct of Beijing’s sizable government-led investments. 苇渡科技寻求颠覆百年来卡车运输业对柴油的依赖。它依靠中国先进的电动汽车电池和零部件供应链，这是中国政府主导的大规模投资的副产品。 苇渡科技受雄心的驱使多于经验，目前仅制造了30辆卡车，与到2027年制造10000辆卡车的目标相去甚远。监管方面的障碍意味着其车辆还在等待美国和欧洲的认证。卡车内部。 In addition to an office in Antwerp, Windrose is building a production plant in northern France. It has sites in Georgia and California to handle light assembly of trucks mostly manufactured in China. It is now choosing among Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio for a factory to open in 2027. 除了在安特卫普的办事处外，苇渡科技正在法国北部建造一个工厂。该公司在佐治亚州和加利福尼亚州设有工厂，负责大部分在中国制造的轻型卡车的组装。目前，该公司正在亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州和俄亥俄州选址，计划在2027年开设一家工厂。 It is forging ahead more on ambition than a proven track record. It has produced only about 40 trucks, a long way from its target of building 10,000 in 2027. It faces regulatory hurdles. Customers in America and Europe cannot yet buy its vehicles, which are waiting to get road-certified. 它的前进是凭着雄心壮志，而不是凭着已被证实的业绩。目前它只生产了大约40辆卡车，距离2027年生产1万辆的目标还有很长的路要走。它面临着监管障碍。美国和欧洲的客户还不能购买它的汽车，这些汽车还在等待上路认证。 In three years, Windrose has raised more than $300 million. While other fledgling truck makers have struggled to get production lines up and running, Windrose has surprised many in the industry with its speed in designing, developing and producing trucks. Mr. Han’s vehicles have been tested on long routes in the United States, Europe, China and Australia. 苇渡科技在三年里已经筹集了3亿多美元。当其他刚刚起步的卡车制造商还在为生产线的启动和运行而苦苦挣扎时，苇渡科技设计、开发和生产卡车的速度已令业内许多人感到惊讶。韩文的车辆已经在美国、欧洲、中国和澳大利亚的长途路线上进行了测试。 “I’m always telling him that he’s being too aggressive, but he keeps delivering, so now I have nothing to say,” Allen Zhu, managing director at GSR Ventures, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm and a Windrose investor. 硅谷风险投资公司金沙江创投主管合伙人、苇渡科技投资者朱啸虎说：“我总是告诉他，他太激进了，但他一直在兑现承诺，所以现在我无话可说。” But, of course, Windrose is facing conditions that are unfriendly, if not outright hostile, to Chinese start-ups. 然而，苇渡科技面临的环境对中国初创企业并不友好，甚至可以说是充满敌意。 President Trump has imposed escalating tariffs on Chinese imports. In February, he ordered restrictions on Chinese investments in strategic sectors and sought to limit how Chinese firms list their shares on U.S. stock exchanges. As part of the decree, the White House specifically identified China as a “foreign adversary.” 特朗普总统对中国进口商品征收的关税不断升级。今年2月，他下令限制中国在战略行业的投资，并试图限制中国公司在美国证券交易所上市的方式。作为政令的一部分，白宫明确将中国列为“外国对手”。 And then there is Elon Musk, the chief executive of Tesla, who has Mr. Trump’s ear. Tesla is one of Windrose’s main competitors with the capital, know-how and brand to challenge existing truck manufacturers. 此外还有跟特朗普过从甚密的特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克。特斯拉是苇渡科技的主要竞争对手之一，拥有挑战现有卡车制造商的资金、技术和品牌。 Whether or not Mr. Han succeeds in his American endeavor, his story speaks to the inexorable economic impulses that connect China and the United States despite the political forces dividing the countries. 无论韩文在美国的努力是否成功，他的故事都说明，尽管两国之间存在着政治力量的分歧，但不可阻挡的经济动力将两国联系在一起。 Mr. Han, the only child of two doctors, competed in national English-speaking competitions as a student. He noticed that many top participants had lived abroad. 韩文是独子，父母都是医生，学生时代曾参加过全国英语比赛。他注意到，许多名列前茅的参赛者曾在国外生活过。 “So I told my mother,” he said, that “I, too, would like to gain such an unfair advantage.” “所以我告诉我妈妈，”他说，“我也想获得这样不公平的优势。” At 16, he left China to attend high school near San Diego. After college, he worked at Bridgewater. He worked in venture capital after Stanford Business School. Mr. Han joined Plus, a Silicon Valley start-up for self-driving trucks with operations in China and the United States, and eventually became its chief strategy and financial officer. 16岁时，他离开中国，在圣地亚哥附近上高中。大学毕业后，他在桥水公司工作。从斯坦福商学院毕业后，他从事风险投资工作。韩文后来加入硅谷的自动驾驶卡车初创公司Plus，在中国和美国都有业务，最终成为了该公司的首席战略和财务官。 He discovered the perils of becoming trapped between Washington and Beijing. Mr. Han said he had been headed toward a $20 million payday from Plus’s initial public offering until China’s crackdown on the ride-hailing company Didi Chuxing put a freeze on his company’s listing plans. Plus eventually split its Chinese operation from the rest of its global portfolio. 他发现了夹在华盛顿和北京之间的危险。韩文说，Plus的首次公开募股本来可以给他带来2000万美元的收入，但中国对叫车公司滴滴出行的打击冻结了该公司的上市计划。Plus最终将中国业务从其全球投资组合中剥离出来。 “I learned how to deal with geopolitical sensitivities,” Mr. Han said. “我学会了如何处理地缘政治的敏感性，”韩文说。 He started Windrose in 2022. At the time, investors were wary of electric vehicle companies after some high-profile failures. Battery prices had soared from lithium carbonate shortages, heaping additional pressure on profitability. 他于2022年创办了苇渡科技。当时，在一些引人注目的失败之后，投资者对电动汽车公司持谨慎态度。电池价格因碳酸锂短缺而飙升，给盈利能力带来了额外压力。 短短三年里，苇渡科技筹集了3亿多美元，并迅速从设计转向生产，超越了陷入困境的竞争对手。韩文的目标是在全球范围内销售长途卡车，并让苇渡科技在纽约上市。 Mr. Han took a contrarian view. The stigma around the sector meant there were fewer new competitors. He thought lithium prices had peaked. He was right about both, but more than that, he knew that China’s supply chain for electric vehicles was far ahead of the rest of the world. 韩文持相反的观点。该行业的污名意味着新的竞争对手减少了。他认为锂的价格已经见顶。他在这两点上都是对的，但更重要的是，他知道中国的电动汽车供应链远远领先于世界其他地区。 Windrose did not invent something new. Tesla and Nikola had announced plans for electric trucks years earlier, but both companies were setting up supply chains in the United States, not China. Nikola declared bankruptcy in February. Tesla is running years behind production targets for its truck, the Semi. 苇渡科技并没有发明什么新东西。特斯拉和尼古拉早在几年前就宣布了电动卡车的计划，但两家公司都在美国而不是中国建立了供应链。尼古拉今年2月宣布破产。特斯拉的卡车Semi的生产目标已经落后多年。 Mr. Han faced some resistance when raising money in the United States. Anything Chinese is considered “taboo,” he said. Someone suggested that he say he was Chinese American, not Chinese. 韩文在美国筹集资金时遇到了一些阻力。他说，任何中国的东西都被认为是“禁忌”。有人建议他说他是华裔美国人，而不是中国人。 Windrose is eager to get trucks to customers before Tesla, which first demonstrated its prototype Semi in 2017. Tesla said last year that it aimed to reach mass production — an annual capacity of 50,000 trucks — at its facility in Nevada by the end of 2026. Tesla, which did not respond to a request for comment, initially said it would begin deliveries in 2019. 苇渡科技渴望在特斯拉之前向客户提供卡车，特斯拉在2017年首次展示了Semi原型车。特斯拉去年表示，它的目标是在2026年底之前在内华达州的工厂实现量产——年产5万辆卡车。特斯拉没有回应置评请求，公司最初曾表示将于2019年开始交付。 Mr. Han speaks of Mr. Musk with reverence. He said that Mr. Musk had done more for relations with China than most diplomats and that Windrose had benefited from the Chinese supply chain that rose up to support Tesla. 谈起马斯克，韩文充满敬意。他说，马斯克为中美关系所做的贡献比大多数外交官都要多，苇渡科技也从支持特斯拉的中国供应链中受益。 He said, however, that building electric trucks was not a priority for Mr. Musk. He started naming his various roles. 不过，他说，制造电动卡车并不是马斯克的首要任务。他开始说出马斯克扮演的各种角色。 “Oh, yeah,” he said. “And being best friends with Donald Trump.” “哦，对，”他说。“还有唐纳德·特朗普最好的朋友。” Mr. Han is no less desperate for the president’s attention. He has already decided to build a factory in a “very red” state, but he sent a direct plea to Mr. Trump last month on Truth Social. 韩文同样渴望得到总统的关注。他已经决定在一个“非常红”的州建一家工厂，但他上个月在Truth Social上直接向特朗普发出了请求。 “Mr. President,” Mr. Han wrote. “We heard you and we would like to announce our plans to build Windrose EV truck’s first manufacturing facility in the United States! Please help find us the right community to invest in!” “总统先生，”韩文写道。“我们听到了你的声音，我们想宣布我们计划在美国建立苇渡科技电动卡车的第一家制造工厂！请帮助我们找到合适的社区进行投资！” 韩文希望苇渡科技被视为一家全球性公司而不是中国的代表性企业，并与共产党保持距离。苇渡科技的目标是借助中国先进的电动汽车供应链打破卡车运输对柴油的依赖，这一供应链得益于政府的巨额投资。 Mr. Han has not heard back. 韩文没有收到回复。 Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者，报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAVID PIERSON2025年4月3日2月，上海洋山港。 The New York Times China on Thursday vowed countermeasures against President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, warning that there would be no winners in a trade war. 周四，中国誓言对特朗普总统的全面新关税采取反制措施，并警告称贸易战不会有赢家。 The tariffs are “based on subjective and unilateral assessments,” China’s commerce ministry said in a statement, describing them as “unilateral bullying.” 中国商务部在一份声明中表示，这些关税是“在主观、单方面评估基础上”得出的，并称其为“单边霸凌做法”。 The tariffs imposed on Chinese imports by Mr. Trump during his second term have created a severe burden on companies importing from China. These are on top of the tariffs he placed on Chinese imports during his first term. 在第二任期内，特朗普对中国进口产品征收的关税给从中国进口的企业带来了沉重的负担。这些关税是他在第一任期内对中国进口产品征收的关税之外的额外关税。 “There are no winners in a trade war,” the commerce ministry said, urging the United States to use dialogue for resolving trade issues. “贸易战没有赢家，”商务部表示，并敦促美国通过对话解决贸易问题。 The tariffs on China have likely dimmed hope of a meeting between the country’s top leader, Xi Jinping, and Mr. Trump, who has expressed interest in a summit. 此次对华关税可能使中国最高领导人习近平与特朗普会晤的希望变得渺茫，此前特朗普曾表示有兴趣举行峰会。 Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, told Russian state media this week that the United States needed to remove the tariffs imposed on China earlier this year before any talks could take place between the two countries. 中国最高外交官王毅本周对俄罗斯官方媒体表示，中美要想开展任何磋商，美国首先需要取消今年早些时候对中国征收的关税。 “If the U.S. side keeps on pressuring and even blackmailing, China surely will be resolute in its countermeasures,” Mr. Wang said. “美方如果一味施压，甚至继续搞各种讹诈，中方必将坚决反制，”王毅说。 China imposed tariffs on American exports, such as agricultural products, in response to the two earlier rounds of U.S. tariffs. Beijing’s options this time could include more tariffs, restrictions on U.S. investment in China or export controls on rare earth minerals. 中国对前两轮美国关税的回应是对美国出口产品（如农产品）征收关税。北京这次的选择可能包括增加关税、限制美国在华投资或对稀土矿物实施出口管制。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看英文版实时报道。
JOE RENNISON, DANIELLE KAYE, RIVER AKIRA DAVIS2025年4月3日 The New York Times Markets around the world shuddered on Thursday after President Trump announced across-the-board 10 percent tariffs on all U.S. trading partners except Canada and Mexico, as well as even higher tariffs on dozens of America’s other main trading partners. 周四，特朗普总统宣布对除加拿大和墨西哥以外的所有美国贸易伙伴全面征收10%的关税，并对其他数十个美国主要的贸易伙伴征收更高的关税，导致全球市场震荡。 Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to trade the index outside normal trading hours, slumped over 3 percent. Asian markets fell sharply, with benchmark indexes dropping more than 3 percent in Japan, and nearly 2 percent in Hong Kong and South Korea. 标准普尔500指数期货——也就是投资者可以在正常交易时间之外交易的指数——跌幅超过3%。亚洲市场大幅下跌，日本基准指数下跌超过3%，香港和韩国下跌近2%。 The slide came after Mr. Trump, speaking at a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday, announced a new 10 percent base line tariff on all imports as well as country specific taxes on goods from a host of other countries. Those included a 34 percent tax on Chinese imports, on top of 20 percent in tariffs he recently put on China, and 20 percent on goods coming from the European Union and 24 percent on Japanese imports. 特朗普周三在白宫举行的一个仪式上发表讲话，宣布对所有进口商品征收10%的新基准关税，并对来自许多其他国家的商品征收特定关税后，全球市场随之下跌。其中包括对中国进口商品征收34%的关税，此前他已经对中国商品加征20%的关税；对来自欧盟的商品征收20%的关税；对日本进口商品征收24%的关税。 The initial market reaction suggested that the scale of the tariffs on Wednesday had come as a surprise, and analysts were still trying to figure out how the figures had been derived. 市场的初步反应表明，周三宣布的关税规模出人意料，分析人士仍在试图弄清楚这些税率是如何得出的。 “I think the numbers are shockingly high compared to what people were expecting and it is inexplicable in many ways,” said Peter Tchir, head of macro strategy at Academy Securities. “I think it’s a disaster.” “我认为，与人们之前的预期相比，这些数字高得令人震惊，而且在很多方面都令人费解，”学院证券(Academy Securities)宏观策略主管彼得·奇尔表示。“我认为这是一场灾难。” The administration had adjusted its estimates of the tariffs imposed on the United States to include adjustments for what it deemed currency manipulation or even other taxes, with analysts questioning the analytical basis for doing so. 美国政府调整了估算其他国家对美国商品征收关税的方法，将其认定的货币操纵行为甚至其他税收也纳入考量，但分析人士质疑这种调整方法缺乏合理的分析依据。 “Trump is going to war with countries on this,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at National Alliance Securities. “It’s ridiculous. It shows no comprehension as to what he is doing to other countries. And it is going to hurt the U.S.” “特朗普要就此与各国开战，”全国联盟证券(National Alliance Securities)的国际固定收益主管安德鲁·布伦纳说。“这太荒谬了。这表明他根本不了解自己的所作所为会给其他国家带来什么影响。而且这将伤害到美国自己。” Stock markets globally have been choppy in recent weeks, as investors have been whipsawed by the administration’s mixed tariff messages. Markets in Asia tumbled earlier this week ahead of the anticipated unveiling of tariffs, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling into a correction on Monday. 最近几周，全球股市一直动荡不安，因为投资者被美国政府发出的相互矛盾的关税信息弄得无所适从。本周早些时候，在预期中的关税举措公布之前，亚洲股市就已经大幅下跌，日经平均指数在周一进入回调状态。 Japan was jolted again on Thursday, with analysts and trade experts in Tokyo caught off guard by Mr. Trump’s announcement of a 24 percent tariff on Japanese products. The U.S. ally’s average tariff on nonagricultural goods is approximately 2.4 percent, making it among the lowest in the world. 周四，日本再次受到震动，特朗普宣布对日本产品征收24%的关税，这让东京的分析人士和贸易专家们措手不及。作为美国的盟友，日本对非农业产品的平均关税约为2.4%，是世界上最低的关税水平之一。 The uncertainty around the tariff levels has left investors unable to assess the potential ramifications for consumers, businesses and the broader economy. 关税水平的不确定性使得投资者无法评估它对消费者、企业和整体经济的潜在影响。 The U.S. tariff rate on all imports is now around 22 percent, from 2.5 percent in 2024, said Olu Sonola, the head of U.S. Economic Research at Fitch Ratings. 惠誉评级美国经济研究主管奥卢·索诺拉表示，美国对所有进口商品征收的关税税率目前约为22%，而2024年时这一税率为2.5%。 “This is a game changer, not only for the U.S. economy but for the global economy. Many countries will likely end up in a recession,” he said. “You can throw most forecasts out the door.” “这不仅会改变美国经济的格局，也会改变全球经济的格局。许多国家很可能最终会陷入经济衰退，”他说。“大多数的预测现在已经没什么用处了。” Through Wednesday, the S&P 500 had fallen 7.7 percent below its most recent peak in February. From that peak on Feb. 19 through the end of March, 10 of 11 sectors have fallen. 截至周三，标普500指数较其2月份的近期峰值已下跌7.7%。从2月19日的峰值到3月底，11个产业类别中有10个的指数都出现了下跌。 The Nasdaq Composite index, which is chock-full of the tech stocks that have come under pressure during the latest bout of selling, has tumbled even further, down almost 13 percent since its peak in December. Futures on the index tumbled over 4 percent Wednesday evening. 以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数在最近的抛售潮中承受了压力，该指数跌幅更大，自12月份的峰值以来下跌了近13%。周三晚间，该指数期货跌幅超过4%。 The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies more exposed to the ebb and flow of the economy, and therefore arguably more of a bellwether for American businesses, is more than 16 percent below its peak in November. 追踪小公司的罗素2000指数更容易受到经济起伏的影响，因此可以说它能充当美国企业的风向标，该指数较去年11月的峰值已下跌逾16%。 In Asia, the stocks of a wide range of companies including technology and semiconductor giants, as well as major auto exporters, stumbled. Shares of Japanese automakers Honda Motor and Toyota Motor fell more than 4 percent on Thursday, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics fell close to 3 percent. 在亚洲，包括科技和半导体巨头以及主要汽车出口商在内的众多公司的股票纷纷下跌。日本汽车制造商本田汽车和丰田汽车的股票周四下跌了4%以上，韩国三星电子的股价下跌了近3%。 Japan’s Nikkei 225 index is down more than 11 percent this year, with analysts expecting a weaker dollar and stronger yen to cut deeply into the profits of big Japanese exporters. 日经平均指数今年已经下跌逾11%，分析人士预计，美元走弱和日元走强将大幅削减日本大出口商的利润。 Signs of worry have also been evident in the rapid rise in the price of gold. Investors have flocked to the precious metal, sending it 19 percent higher in the first three months of the year, its biggest quarterly rise since 1986. 黄金价格的快速上涨也体现了市场的担忧。投资者对这种贵金属趋之若鹜，使其在今年前三个月上涨了19%，创下自1986年以来的最大季度涨幅。 And while many investors worry about the inflationary effect of tariffs, falling bond yields and a declining U.S. dollar suggest that most are more worried about waning economic growth. 尽管许多投资者担心关税会带来通货膨胀的影响，但债券收益率下降和美元贬值表明，大多数投资者更担心经济增长会放缓。 The dollar slid as Mr. Trump spoke from the White House Rose Garden. 特朗普在白宫玫瑰园发表讲话时，美元汇率应声下滑。 Some investors had hoped that the tariff announcement on Wednesday would cure some of the uncertainty in the financial markets. But few truly expected the news to mark the end of Mr. Trump’s tariff talk and with it an end to the stock market volatility. 一些投资者原本希望周三宣布的关税举措能够消除金融市场的部分不确定性。但几乎没有人真地指望这会标志着特朗普关税言论以及随之而来的股市波动的结束。 Uncertainty has “paralyzed” investors, consumers and business leaders, further pressuring the economy as activity slows, said George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities. 三菱日联金融集团证券美国宏观策略主管乔治·贡萨尔维斯表示，不确定性让投资者、消费者和企业领导人“不知所措”，随着经济活动放缓，这进一步给经济带来了压力。 Ahead of the announcement, prices in the equity options market, where investors can place bets that protect them against sharp moves in the stock market, suggested a consensus view that volatility would remain, said Mandy Xu, head of derivatives market intelligence at Cboe Global Markets. 芝加哥期权交易所全球市场衍生品市场情报主管曼迪·徐表示，在关税举措宣布之前，股票期权市场的价格表明，市场普遍认为股市波动将会持续。在股票期权市场，投资者可以进行押注以防范股市的大幅波动。 “Investors no longer see tariffs as a one-time event risk, but an always-present risk,” she said, adding that the current expectation in the market is for volatility to persist, “given ongoing tariff and growth worries.” 她表示：“投资者不再将关税视为一次性事件的风险，而是始终存在的风险。“她还说，“鉴于关税和经济增长的担忧持续存在，”目前市场预期波动将持续下去。 Joe Rennison撰写有关金融市场的文章，内容包括记录股市的变幻莫测、解释华尔街内部人士常常难以理解的交易决策等。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Danielle Kaye是一名商业记者，也是2024年David Carr奖学金项目成员，这是一个为处在职业生涯早期的记者而设立的项目。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 River Akira Davis驻东京，报道日本经济和商业新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
DAMIEN CAVE, MUKTITA SUHARTONO2025年4月3日周二，曼谷倒塌建筑现场。 Chanakarn Laosarakham/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Only one building in Bangkok fell during the earthquake on Friday that rocked Myanmar, hundreds of miles away. Recovery efforts continue with at least 15 people killed and dozens still missing. Determining the cause could take months. 上周五在数百公里外的缅甸发生地震期间，曼谷只有一栋建筑倒塌。救援工作仍在继续，至少15人死亡，数十人失踪。确定事故原因可能需要数月时间。 But interviews with workers who had been on the site, together with early official findings, highlighted potential problems with construction design and quality. 但对现场工人的采访，以及早期的官方调查结果，凸显了建筑设计和质量方面的潜在问题。 At the center of the scrutiny is China Railway 10th Engineering Group, a Chinese state-owned company with about a dozen other projects in Thailand and whose contractors tried to remove documents from the site after the disaster. 中铁十局是此次调查的焦点，这家中国国有企业在泰国还有十几个其他项目，灾难发生后，该公司的承包商试图从现场移走文件。 Behind that Chinese company is its parent, China Railway Group — a Chinese infrastructure giant with soaring debt, a hunger for new projects and subsidiaries facing accusations of weak safety in several countries. 这家中国公司背后的母公司中国国家铁路集团是一家负债累累、急需新项目的中国基础设施巨头，其子公司在几个国家面临安全薄弱的指责。 Workers in Bangkok told The New York Times that China Railway 10th, which was part of a consortium constructing the building, underpaid contractors who turned to lower quality materials, and used columns narrower than usual. 曼谷的工人告诉《纽约时报》，中铁十局是该建筑施工财团的成员之一，他们向承包商支付了较低的报酬，这些承包商使用的材料质量较差，而且使用了比平常更窄的立柱。 Thai officials testing twisted metal from the ruins said they found substandard steel bars — made by a Thai factory with Chinese owners that the authorities had shut down in December. 泰国官员对废墟中扭曲的金属进行了检测，称他们发现了不合格的钢筋，这些钢筋由一家泰国工厂制造，工厂的所有者是中国人，当局已于去年12月关闭了这家工厂。 An anti-corruption watchdog also said it had flagged construction irregularities at the 30-story tower before March 28, when fleeing workers watched the high-rise implode. 一家反腐败监督机构还表示，在3月28日逃离的工人们眼睁睁地看着这栋30层的高楼坍塌之前，该机构就已经发现了施工过程中的违规行为。 “The pillars on the third floor — where I stood and looked back — the beams didn’t burst,” said Netiphong Phatthong, 38, an electrician who barely escaped, waiting at the site for news about his missing friends on Tuesday. “They crumbled as the metals inside were squashed.” “我站在三楼的柱子那里往后看，横梁并没有破裂，”38岁的电工内提蓬·帕通说，周二，勉强逃过一劫的他在现场等待失踪朋友的消息。“由于里面的金属被挤压，它们碎裂了。” Thai officials, describing the collapse as a blow to the country’s image, have moved aggressively to investigate the consortium with the $62 million construction contract for the tower. It had been meant to house government auditors. 泰国官员将此次倒塌事件描述为对国家形象的打击，他们已采取积极行动，调查与该大厦签订6200万美元建筑合同的财团。这座大厦原本是为政府审计员提供的办公场所。 At a cabinet meeting Tuesday, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra ordered the authorities to also scrutinize all projects in Thailand involving China Railway 10th. She did not mention whether the parent company would be investigated. 在周二的内阁会议上，泰国总理佩通坦·钦那瓦下令当局也要审查泰国所有涉及中铁十局的项目。她没有提及中铁十局的母公司是否会受到调查。 “We really need to find an answer,” Ms. Paetongtarn told reporters. “We need to tell the people and the world what happened in Thailand.” “我们确实需要找到一个答案，”佩通坦告诉记者。“我们需要告诉人民和全世界，在泰国发生了什么。” 周三，泰国总理佩通坦·钦那瓦在大楼倒塌现场问候等待消息的人们。 Under Pressure 压力之下 The joint venture for the 30-story tower was registered in Thailand in 2018. It included a Thai developer, Italian-Thai Development, but according to workers, daily operations were run by China Railway 10th. 这座30层高楼的合资项目于2018年在泰国注册，其中包括泰国开发商意大利-泰国开发公司，但据工人说，日常运营由中铁十局负责。 A promotional video that the Chinese company recently released showed drone footage of the building and praised the quality of its construction. China Railway 10th is also responsible for an airport terminal in southern Thailand that was supposed to be finished in January but was less than 40 percent complete as of March, according to the transport ministry. 这家中国公司最近发布的一段宣传视频展示了无人机拍摄的该建筑画面，赞扬了其建筑质量。中铁十局还负责泰国南部的一个机场航站楼，据泰国交通部称，该航站楼本应在1月份完工，但截至3月，完工不足40%。 China Railway 10th’s Bangkok office did not respond to emails seeking comment. The Chinese Embassy, in a statement on Facebook, urged Chinese companies to cooperate with the Thai government’s investigation. 中铁十局曼谷办事处没有回复寻求置评的电子邮件。中国大使馆在Facebook上发表声明，敦促中国企业配合泰国政府的调查。 China Railway Group, the parent company, got its start building most of China’s almost 30,000 miles of high-speed rail lines. But in recent years, as demand for new projects at home faded, the company and its subsidiaries have expanded their scope in a rush to bring in work. 中铁十局的母公司中国国家铁路集团以修建了中国约4.5万公里高铁线路中的大部分起家。但近年来，随着国内对新项目的需求减弱，该公司及其子公司扩大了业务范围，急于招揽工程。 Its timing often coincided with Chinese government priorities. In 2019, as Beijing sought closer ties in the Pacific, China Railway Group bought a dormant gold mine in the Solomon Islands. Workers there told The Times that safety concerns were often ignored. 其时机往往与中国政府的优先事项一致。2019年，随着北京寻求在太平洋地区建立更紧密的关系，中铁集团在所罗门群岛购买了一座休眠金矿。那里的工人告诉时报，安全问题经常被忽视。 Along the way, the company’s debt soared. Its 2024 annual report shows total liabilities worth $211 billion, almost double the $112 billion that the company carried five years ago. 在此过程中，该公司的债务飙升。其2024年年报显示，该公司的总负债为1.74万亿元，几乎是五年前8107亿元的两倍。 基建巨头中铁集团债务飙升，急需新项目。 Reuters Victor Shih, a specialist in Chinese politics and finance at the University of California, San Diego, said that when a company has such a heavy debt burden, “the pressure to generate cash flow to service debt can be quite intense.” 加州大学圣地亚哥分校研究中国政治和金融的专家史宗瀚说，当一家公司背负如此沉重的债务负担时，“产生现金流来偿还债务的压力可能相当大”。 Another China Railway subsidiary has been blamed — along with allegedly corrupt officials — for the collapse of a train station canopy in Serbia last November, which killed 15 people. 去年11月，塞尔维亚一座火车站顶篷倒塌，造成15人死亡，中铁集团的另一家子公司与涉嫌腐败的官员一起受到指责。 Adding strain in Bangkok, construction was behind schedule. The building was less than half-finished despite a 2020 start. Mana Nimitmongkol, president of the Anti-Corruption Organization of Thailand, said the government had threatened to cancel the project in 2024 because of delays. 在曼谷，施工进度落后于计划，这给该公司带来了更大的压力。尽管该建筑于2020年开工，但完工还不到一半。泰国反腐败组织主席玛纳·尼米蒙空表示，由于项目延误，政府曾威胁要在2024年取消该项目。 Adding suspicion, four Chinese nationals who identified themselves as subcontractors were caught on camera the day after the earthquake removing documents from an office behind the rubble. They told the authorities it was for an insurance claim. The police seized the documents; the men were detained, then released. 更令人起疑的是，四名自称分包商的中国公民在地震发生第二天被监控摄像拍到从废墟后面的一间办公室里移走文件。他们告诉当局那是为了保险索赔。警察没收了文件；这些人被拘留，然后被释放。 周三，救援人员从废墟中找到一具遇难者遗体。 Weak Materials 强度不够的材料 Structural engineers in Bangkok struggled to understand why the building buckled all at once. 曼谷的结构工程师很难理解这座建筑为什么一下子就坍塌了。 Pennung Warnitchai, director of Earthquake Research Center of Thailand, who helped draft Bangkok’s earthquake-resistant standards, said that the building should have been able to stay up. The ground motion detected in Bangkok after the earthquake struck, he said, “was about one-third to one-half of the level we consider in the design of typical buildings.” 参与起草曼谷抗震标准的泰国地震研究中心主任彭侬·瓦尼猜说，这座建筑本来应该能够屹立不倒。他说，地震发生后，在曼谷检测到的地面运动，“大约是我们在设计典型建筑时考虑水平的三分之一到二分之一。” Thailand generally follows an American model for earthquake protection, which means skyscrapers start with a reinforced concrete core. The core is typically a rectangular shaft in a building’s center, with floors and vertical support columns emanating outward. 泰国基本上遵循美国的防震模式，即摩天大楼以钢筋混凝土为核心。核心通常是位于建筑物中心的矩形竖井，楼层和垂直支撑柱向外延伸。 In the case of the building that fell, the designers set the core off-center, said Mr. Pennung, adding that he saw the plans. Other buildings with a similar design did not collapse. But because the earthquake’s distance created longer periods between waves of motion, and with much of Bangkok built on soft soil, he said, the building may have both swayed and twisted, compounding the danger. 彭侬说，在倒塌的那座建筑中，设计师把核心设置在偏离中心的位置。他还说，他看过设计图。其他类似设计的建筑没有倒塌。但他说，由于地震距离较远，地震波之间的间隔时间较长，而且曼谷的大部分地区都建在软土上，建筑物可能既摇晃又扭曲，从而加剧了危险。 Mr. Pennung and several other engineers stressed it was too early to determine the cause of the collapse. Steel quality, design, work standards and soil could all play a role. But he said that evidence from workers and officials gathered so far, plus video footage of the quake, suggested that the core and supporting pillars or columns gave way on the lower floors. 彭侬和其他几位工程师强调，现在确定坍塌的原因还为时过早。钢材质量、设计、工作标准和土壤都可能发挥作用。但他说，迄今为止，从工作人员和官员那里收集到的证据，加上地震的视频片段，都表明，较低楼层的核心和支撑柱发生了坍塌。 “It seems that it collapsed from the bottom, not the top,” he said. “它似乎是从底部而不是顶部倒塌的，”他说。 2024年12月拍摄的卫星图像显示了曼谷建筑的施工情况。 Planet Labs, via Reuters Other experts agreed that the building did not topple so much as drop, which corresponds with accounts from workers who escaped at the last minute. 其他专家一致认为，相比从顶部倒塌，大楼更像是从底部倒塌，这与在最后一刻逃生的工人的说法相符。 Six employees from the downed building, who worked from the third to the 10th floors, said that the project often seemed unsafe. Some of the issues they reported were relatively minor: many workers wore sneakers rather than steel-toed boots; requirements for a harness on higher floors were ignored. 当时在倒塌大楼三楼至十楼作业的六名员工表示，这个项目经常显得不安全。他们报告的一些问题相对较小：许多工人穿运动鞋，而不是钢头靴子；在较高楼层使用安全带的要求被忽视。 Three workers with experience on several lower floors said the columns of the building were thinner than those they had seen at other high-rise construction sites. Apichat Chaihlao, who worked on the eighth floor, said his supervisor was so concerned that he measured the columns himself “and he said these pillars are not right.” 三名在较低楼层工作过的工人说，这栋楼的柱子比他们在其他高层建筑工地看到的要细。在八楼工作的阿皮察·柴劳说，他的主管非常担心，亲自测量了这些柱子，“他说这些柱子不对。” “I didn’t think about it at that time, but now,” he added, “compared to the other projects I’ve worked on, that floor did not look sturdy.” “我当时没有想到这一点，但现在看来，”他还说，“和我参与过的其他项目相比，那块地板看起来并不结实。” Two subcontractors, who declined to give their names out of fear of reprisal by their employer, said Chinese managers often disregarded suggestions from Thai counterparts and used lowball contracts that led to lower quality materials. 两名因担心遭到雇主报复而拒绝透露姓名的分包商表示，中国管理人员经常无视泰国同行的建议，采用低报价合同，导致材料质量下降。 Reports about the China Railway Group’s subsidiary in Serbia also highlighted a lack of quality control. There, an engineer who had worked on the station with the fatal collapse said that a contractor hired by the Chinese consortium in charge had ignored design specifications and added extra concrete to the canopy. 关于中铁集团在塞尔维亚子公司的报道也凸显了质量控制的缺失。在那里，一名曾参与发生致命坍塌事故的车站工程的工程师说，负责该事故的中国财团雇佣的一名承包商无视设计规范，在顶棚上额外添加了混凝土。 11月，塞尔维亚一座火车站顶篷倒塌，造成15人死亡，工人们检查顶篷。 Nonthichai Likitaporn, director of the Thai Industrial Standards Institute, said the problems with the Bangkok building included using steel that was too weak. 泰国工业标准研究所所长农提猜·利基塔蓬表示，曼谷大楼的问题包括使用的钢材强度太弱。 Samples of steel bars in two sizes that were collected from the site failed tests by the Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand for their mass, chemistry and ability to handle pressure. Other samples met the required standards, Mr. Nonthichai said, but the problematic metal was made by the same Chinese company: Xin Ke Yuan Steel Co., which had a factory in Thailand’s Rayong province. 从现场收集的两种规格的钢筋样品在质量、化学性质和抗压能力方面未通过泰国钢铁协会的测试。农提猜说，其他样品符合要求标准，但有问题的金属是由同一家中国公司生产的：新科原钢铁有限公司，该公司在泰国罗勇府有一家工厂。 Thai authorities closed the factory in December, citing risks to safety after an accident involving gas leaks. They seized more than 2,400 tons of steel after tests found that its rebar did not meet approved criteria for its ribbing height and boron content, undermining adhesion with concrete and weakening its strength. 泰国当局在去年12月关闭了这家工厂，理由是发生一起涉及天然气泄漏的事故后存在安全风险。他们查获了2400多吨钢材，此前的测试发现，这些钢筋的肋高和硼含量不符合批准的标准，破坏了与混凝土的粘合力，削弱了混凝土的强度。 The authorities also demanded that the company’s executives recall any steel already sold. It is not clear that they did that. 政府还要求该公司高管召回已售出的所有钢材。目前尚不清楚他们是否已执行。 The company could not be reached for comment at the phone number listed on its website. 记者无法通过该公司网站上列出的电话号码联系到该公司置评。 Chinese construction networks led by state-owned firms have played major roles in Bangkok’s recent building boom, adding apartments, train lines and other projects. The Thai government has increasingly close relations with China, which is Thailand’s largest investor. Last month, at Beijing’s request, Thailand deported 40 Uyghur asylum seekers back to China, drawing a sharp rebuke from U.N. officials and activists who had long warned that the men would possibly face torture and imprisonment upon their return. 以国有企业为首的中国建筑网络在曼谷最近的建筑热潮中发挥了重要作用，为其增添了公寓、铁路和其他项目。泰国政府与中国的关系日益密切，中国是泰国最大的投资国。上个月，应北京要求，泰国将40名寻求庇护的维吾尔人遣返回中国，这引起了联合国官员和活动人士的强烈谴责，他们长期以来一直警告称，这些人回国后可能会面临酷刑和监禁。 Within China, Beijing has sought to censor coverage and discussion of the collapsed building. An explanatory story about the building’s structure by an investigative news outlet, Caixin, and a short piece by the official news agency, Xinhua, about the casualties caused by the collapse, were removed soon after they were published. 在中国国内，北京试图审查有关这栋倒塌建筑的报道和讨论。调查新闻媒体财新网一篇关于该大楼结构的解释性报道，以及官方新闻机构新华社的一篇关于大楼倒塌造成人员伤亡的短文在发表后不久就被删除了。 But in Thailand, fears of tall buildings are now common — and outrage has soared. 但在泰国，对高层建筑的恐惧现在已经很普遍，愤怒情绪也随之高涨。 “Thailand’s public sentiment has been increasingly critical of Chinese business presence and government dealings,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science and international relations at Chulalongkorn University. 朱拉隆功大学政治学和国际关系教授提提南·蓬苏迪拉克说，“泰国公众对中国企业的存在和政府交易的批评日益强烈。” “The collapse of the Chinese-built building,” he added, “is likely to reinforce this critical view.” “中国打造的建筑倒塌，”他还说，“可能会强化这种批评的观点。” David Pierson和Berry Wang自香港、Keith Bradsher和Li You自北京对本文有报道贡献。 Damien Cave领导时报在越南胡志明市的新分社，报道亚洲及全球世界范围内的权力转移。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Muktita Suhartono常驻曼谷，报道泰国和印尼新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
ANA SWANSON, ALAN RAPPEPORT, TONY ROMM2025年4月3日 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times President Trump unveiled his most expansive tariffs to date in a ceremony at the White House on Wednesday afternoon, saying he would impose a 10 percent tariff on all trading partners as well as double-digit “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries that administration officials said had treated the United States unfairly. 美国总统特朗普周三下午在白宫举行仪式，宣布了迄今为止最广泛的关税措施。他表示，美国将对所有贸易伙伴征收10%的关税，并对数十个被美国政府认定为对美贸易不公的国家加征两位数的“对等”关税。 The move was a significant escalation of Mr. Trump’s trade fight and is likely to ripple through the global economy, driving up prices for American consumers and manufacturers while inciting retaliation from other nations. While Mr. Trump had been saying for weeks that he would impose “reciprocal tariffs,” his announcement went far beyond what many economists and analysts had expected. 此举标志着特朗普贸易战的重大升级，可能会波及全球经济，推高美国消费者和制造商面临的价格，还可能招致其他国家的报复性措施。尽管特朗普数周来一直宣称要实施“对等关税“，但最终宣布的举措远超许多经济学家和分析人士的预期。 The tariffs will apply to more than 100 trading partners, including the European Union, China, Britain and India. Under Mr. Trump’s plan, the United States will impose a staggering new 34 percent tariff on Chinese goods, on top of the 20 percent levy he already imposed on Beijing. 这些关税将适用于超过100个贸易伙伴，包括欧盟、中国、英国和印度。根据特朗普的计划，美国将对中国商品额外征收34%的关税，这是在此前已对中国征收的20%关税基础上进一步增加的。 Some of Mr. Trump’s steepest rates apply to U.S. allies, including a 20 percent tariff on imports from the European Union and a 24 percent tariff on goods from Japan. India will face a 26 percent tariff on its exports to the United States. 一些最严厉的关税将适用于美国的盟友，例如对欧盟进口商品征收20%的关税，对日本商品征收24%的关税。印度对美国的出口商品将面临26%的关税。 In a slight reprieve, the new tariffs will not apply to products that Mr. Trump has already hit with separate levies, including steel and aluminum and vehicles and their parts. Energy and “other certain minerals that are not available in the United States” will also be excluded. 稍微让人松口气的是，新关税不会适用于特朗普此前已单独征税的产品，如钢铁、铝、汽车及其零部件。此外，能源产品及“美国国内没有的某些矿产”也将被豁免。 Stock futures pointed to a sharp drop when trading resumed in Asia and the U.S., suggesting that investors were caught off guard by the scale of the tariffs. Analysts were still trying to work out how the tariff levels had been derived, and some said they were confused about the numbers. Futures on the S&P 500 have tumbled more than 3 percent since Mr. Trump’s announcement. 受此影响，股市期货显示，在亚洲和美国市场重新开盘后，股市可能大幅下跌，表明投资者对关税的规模感到意外。分析师仍在研究关税税率的计算方式，一些人表示对这些数字感到困惑。自特朗普宣布关税措施以来，标准普尔500指数期货已下跌超过3%。 Echoing Mr. Trump, White House officials defended the tariffs by arguing that pernicious trading practices by other countries had led to large and persistent trade deficits for the United States, and that other products, like lumber, copper, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and critical minerals could face additional tariffs. 白宫官员与特朗普的态度一致，他们为关税政策辩护，称其他国家恶劣的贸易行为导致美国长期存在巨额贸易逆差，并表示木材、铜、半导体、制品以及关键矿产可能面临额外关税。 In a briefing with reporters, senior administration officials said they had little appetite for haggling over lower tariff rates, even with U.S. allies that have offered to reduce their own levies on American exports in recent days. They also issued an early warning to countries that have threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs against the United States. 在与记者的简报会上，政府高级官员表示，他们几乎没有兴趣就降低关税税率进行讨价还价，即使是对那些最近主动提出降低对美关税的美国盟友也是如此。他们还向那些威胁要对美国采取报复性关税措施的国家发出了警告。 Mr. Trump at one point described his approach as “kind,” explaining that the government would only be charging other countries half of the rate that they had calculated should be applied based on those countries’ trade practices. He framed his policies as a response to a national emergency, saying that tariffs were needed to boost domestic production. 特朗普一度将自己的关税策略描述为“仁慈的”，他解释说，美国政府对其他国家征收的税率仅为按这些国家贸易行为计算后得出的应征税率的一半。他将此政策描述为对国家紧急状况的回应，称关税措施有助于提升国内生产力。 “We’re going to start being smart, and we’re going to start being very wealthy again,” Mr. Trump said. “我们要开始变得聪明，并且要再次变得非常富有，”特朗普表示。 Here’s what else to know: 以下是其他需要了解的信息： • Markets react: Wall Street shuddered as Mr. Trump announced the tariffs, with early market reaction pointing to a further slide in the stock market and a weakening dollar. Futures on the S&P 500, which allow investors to trade outside normal trading hours, fell more than 3 percent, erasing the day’s gain of 0.7 percent. • 市场反应：特朗普宣布关税政策后，华尔街股市震荡，市场的初步反应表明股市可能进一步下跌，美元走弱。标普500指数期货在盘后交易中下跌超过3%，抹去了当天0.7%的涨幅。 • European response: European officials are poised to respond to Mr. Trump’s tariffs with countermeasures. Although the bloc so far has concentrated on imposing higher tariffs on a wide variety of goods — whiskey, motorcycles and women’s clothing are among the products that could be affected — officials are also open to placing trade barriers on services, using a new trade weapon that would target Big Tech and Wall Street. • 欧洲的回应：欧洲官员准备对特朗普的关税采取反制措施。尽管欧盟目前的主要反制手段是提高对多种商品的关税——受到影响的产品包括威士忌、摩托车和女装等，但欧盟官员也表示不排除对服务业设立贸易壁垒，利用新的贸易武器来针对美国科技巨头和华尔街。 • Auto tariffs: New tariffs on automobiles made outside the United States will go into effect after midnight, adding to previous tariffs on steel, aluminum and other imports worth billions of dollars that Mr. Trump has imposed since returning to office in January. • 汽车关税：对美国以外制造的汽车的新关税将在午夜生效。这些关税将叠加到特朗普自今年1月重新上任以来对钢铁、铝及其他价值数十亿美元的进口商品已经征收的关税之上。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
储百亮, CHRISTOPH KOETTL, AGNES CHANG2025年4月2日图片来源：由中国官方媒体在微博上发布的视频合成。 In recent weeks, China has been practicing unusual maneuvers off its southern coast involving three special barges. The vessels have linked up one behind another, forming a long bridge that extends from deeper waters onto the beach. 最近几周，中国在其南部海岸进行了一场不同寻常的演习，涉及三艘特殊驳船。这些船只一艘接一艘连接起来，形成了一座从更深的水域延伸到海滩上的长桥。 That feat has been a warning to Taiwan. 这种惊人的展示是对台湾的一个警告。 The vessels’ debut suggests that China’s People’s Liberation Army may be a step closer to being able to land tens of thousands of troops and their weapons and vehicles on Taiwan’s shores, experts say. Developing that capability has been a priority of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, in his quest to absorb Taiwan — either by negotiations or by war. 专家说，这些船只的首次亮相表明，中国人民解放军距离将数以万计的士兵和他们的武器车辆登上台湾海岸可能又近了一步。在中国领导人习近平寻求通过谈判或战争吞并台湾的过程中，发展这种能力一直是他的首要任务。 China has been conducting military exercises around Taiwan for years, including a new surge this week. But even as China’s drills have intensified, and its missiles, warships and fighter jets have advanced, many experts have doubted that the Chinese military could cross the Taiwan Strait with the speed and numbers needed for a successful invasion. Strong winds and currents for much of the year add to the dangers of trying to land on Taiwan. 中国多年来一直在台湾附近进行军事演习，包括本周的新一轮演习。但尽管加强了军演，导弹、军舰和战斗机也取得了进步，许多专家还是怀疑，中国军队能否以成功入侵所需的速度和规模穿越台湾海峡。一年中大部分时间的强风和海流增加了登陆的危险。 If the new barges go into service, they could expand China’s options for where and when to land on Taiwan, making Mr. Xi’s threat of a possible invasion more plausible. 如果新的驳船投入使用，将使中国在登陆的时间和地点上有更多选择的余地，从而使习近平入侵台湾的威胁更加可信。 The vessels have been practicing in waters about 220 miles southwest of Guangzhou, the city where they were built. The barges have retractable, heavy-duty legs that work like giant stilts. The legs protrude from the deck when in transit and are lowered, when the vessels are in position, onto the seabed to steady the vessels against the waves. The barges then thrust out long extendable bridges, forming a 2,700-foot causeway that links the vessels together and connects to the shore. 这些在广州建造的船只一直在该市西南约350公里的海域训练。驳船有可伸缩的重型支腿，其作用就像一种巨大的高跷。支腿在转场过程中会从甲板上伸出来，当船只就位时，支腿就会下放到海床上，以稳定船只，抵御海浪。然后，驳船推出长长的可伸缩长桥，形成一条约800米长的堤道，将船只连接在一起，并与海岸相连。 Sources: U.S. Naval War College; satellite image by Maxar Technologies Pictures from foreign satellites have shown the barges practicing with civilian Chinese cargo ships and ferries that could carry vehicles and people to be offloaded onto the causeway. China featured the barges on a recent program about military rivalry with Taiwan, warning that they could play a potential role in an attack. 来自外国卫星的图片显示，这些驳船正在与中国的民用货船和渡轮一起进行演练，这些货船和渡船可以将其运载的车辆和人员卸载到堤道上。中国最近在一个有关两岸军事对抗的节目中提到了这些驳船，并警告说它们可能在攻击中发挥作用。 “This equipment is a bridge and a port combined into one,” Wei Dongxu, a CCTV commentator on the show, said of the barges. Once China gains dominance in the skies and seas, he said, ships loaded with military vehicles could dock with the barges and unload the vehicles, enabling heavy combat equipment to land without touching the water. He said of the barges: “Once they appear, that means that the landing has scored a major victory.” “它是一个把桥梁和港口设施进行结合的一个装备，”央视节目评论员魏东旭在谈到驳船时说。他说，一旦中国获得制空和制海权，装载军用车辆的船只就可以和驳船接驳，卸下这些车辆，使重型作战装备可以在不接触水面的情况下登上陆地。他对这些驳船的评价是：“一旦它出现，就意味着登陆取得了重大的胜利。” Some American commanders and officials have said that Mr. Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be able to take Taiwan by 2027. Mr. Xi has not said that China would definitely invade Taiwan, and there is debate about Beijing’s intentions, urgency and capabilities. 一些美国军事指挥官和官员说，习近平已经做出指示，要求中国人民解放军在2027年之前具备攻占台湾的能力。习近平并没有说中国一定会入侵台湾，关于中国政府的意图、紧迫性和能力也存在争议。 Crossing the Taiwan Strait could be perilous for China’s forces, even with more options for getting ashore. The United States could send forces to help Taiwan against China, raising the risk of war between two nuclear powers. Before any attempt by China to land in large numbers — possibly with the barges — the first wave of invading troops could face fierce fighting in the strait and on Taiwan. 即使有更多的登陆选择，穿越台湾海峡对中国军队来说仍然可能是危险的。美国可以派遣军队帮助台湾对抗中国，增加两个核大国之间爆发战争的风险。在中国试图大规模登陆——包括使用驳船——之前，第一波入侵部队可能会在海峡和台湾面临激烈的战斗。 But the three landing barges showed that China’s armed forces were rapidly developing ways to get over logistical hurdles of a possible invasion, said J. Michael Dahm, a retired U.S. Navy intelligence officer and co-author of a study of the new barges. 但美国海军退役情报官员、一项关于新型驳船的研究的共同作者迈克尔·达姆说，这三艘登陆驳船表明，中国武装部队正在迅速克服可能的入侵行动会遇到的后勤障碍。 The barges work in sets of three — the longest barge, at 607 feet long, the shortest, 361 feet. The vessels’ legs, when lowered, pin the barges in place and can push the hulls up and above the water, for stability. Each barge also has a tower at the front, which can telescope out a bridge, connecting it to the next barge or to the shore. 这些驳船三艘一组，最长的驳船约185米长，最短的约110米长。放下支腿时，驳船可以固定在适当的位置，并将船体抬到水面以上，以保持稳定。每艘驳船前面都有一座塔，可以伸出一座桥，将它与下一艘驳船或海岸连接起来。 The barges form a pier onto which ships that line up alongside the barges could disgorge vehicles. The vehicles could then drive directly along the pier to the shore. 驳船形成一个码头，沿着驳船排列的船只可以在码头上卸下车辆。然后这些车辆可以直接沿着码头开到岸边。 Sources: U.S. Naval War College; satellite image by Airbus DS Mr. Dahm said that he used to doubt that the Chinese military would meet Mr. Xi’s goal of readiness by 2027. 达姆说，他曾经对中国军队能否在2027年前实现习近平的战备目标存有怀疑。 “I will tell you my mind has really been changed over just the last 12 to 18 months, seeing the scale of infrastructure and capability improvements that the Chinese have made,” such as the landing barges, he said. “我会告诉你，过去12到18个月里，看到中国在基础设施和能力方面取得的巨大进步，我的想法真的发生了变化，”他说。他所指的包括这些登陆驳船。 The barges first came to public attention early this year, after H.I. Sutton, a defense analyst, reported that they were being built in a shipyard in Guangzhou. 这些驳船首次引起公众的注意是在今年早些时候，国防分析师H·I·萨顿报道称，它们正在广州的一家造船厂建造。3月，位于同一船厂的同一艘驳船，此时已经离开干坞，此外还有一艘较小的驳船。The Times analyzed satellite imagery and marine traffic data that showed that several commercial ferries and cargo ships took part in the exercises. The commercial ships sidled up to the two larger barges farthest from shore, apparently practicing how to get in place to offload vehicles. 《纽约时报》分析了卫星图像和海上交通数据，显示有几艘商业渡轮和货船参加了演习。商船慢慢靠近离海岸最远的两艘较大的驳船，显然是在练习如何就位，卸载车辆。 The satellite images did not show any vehicles actually being unloaded. But ferries and cargo ships that took part were of a kind built or modified to handle heavy armed vehicles, like armored personnel vehicles or even tanks, said Jason Wang, the chief operating officer of ingeniSPACE, a company that analyzes satellite images and other data, including about the Chinese military. 卫星图像并没有显示任何车辆被卸下。不过，ingeniSPACE的首席运营官杰森·王（音）说，参与其中的渡轮和货船都是为运载重型武装车辆而建造或改装的，比如装甲运兵车，甚至坦克。ingeniSPACE是一家分析卫星图像和其他数据（包括有关中国军队的数据）的公司。 Taiwan’s western coastline, facing the Chinese mainland, has relatively few beaches or ports where landing is easy, and those areas are relatively well guarded. The barges would theoretically enable China to pick other areas on Taiwan’s coast that might be more difficult to land on but are less defended, from which to come ashore, several experts said. 在面向中国大陆的台湾西部海岸线，容易登陆的海滩或港口相对较少，且戒备森严。几位专家表示，理论上，这些驳船将使中国大陆能够在台湾沿海选择其他可能更难登陆但防御较弱的地区，从那里上岸。 Source: TerraColor via ESRI “These barges will open up new locations to deliver troops and material for Xi Jinping to choose from” along Taiwan’s coast, Mr. Wang said. He estimated that in one day the barges could offload hundreds of armored vehicles. “这些驳船将为习近平在台湾沿海地区运送部队和物资开辟新的可供选择的地点，”杰森·王说。他估计，驳船一天之内可以卸下数百辆装甲车。 “China still doesn’t have enough gray hull naval ships to assault Taiwan’s main island on their own,” Mr. Wang said, referring to the typical color of warships. But when you add specialized dual-use ferries and cargo ships, “then that becomes a different story,” he said. “中国仍然无法仅凭灰色军舰攻击台湾主岛，他们没有足够的船，”杰森·王说，灰色是军舰的典型颜色。但如果再加上特殊的军民两用渡轮和货船，“情况就不一样了，”他说。 “You’re then starting to have enough vessels to be able to deliver a battalion on shore quickly,” he said. “这样一来，你就可以有足够的船只，能够迅速将一个营的物资运送到岸上，”他说。 Chinese military planners have closely studied previous wars involving amphibious landings, including Britain’s war to retake the Falkland Islands in 1982, and the D-Day landings at Normandy in 1944. 中国的军事规划者仔细研究了以往涉及两栖登陆的战争，包括1982年英国夺回福克兰群岛的战争，以及1944年的诺曼底登陆。 China may be some way from having a surefire solution to landing on Taiwan. The People’s Liberation Army seems likely to further test the new barges in larger military drills, possibly later this year, said Chieh Chung, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a government-funded group in Taipei. 中国可能还没有找到登陆台湾的万全之策。中国人民解放军似乎有可能在更大规模的军事演习中进一步测试新型驳船，时间可能在今年晚些时候，位于台北的政府资助机构国防安全研究院研究员揭仲说。 “They usually carry out testing through exercises before officially entering into mass production,” he said of China’s military. “Their direction is set — how to overcome all the difficulties that could trouble a joint landing operation.” “通常是在正式进入量产前，就会透过演习进行测试，”他谈到中国军队时说。“他们的方向是确定的，就是如何去解决在联合登陆作战过程当中所会遭遇到的困难。” During the recent practice runs, it took several hours for the transport ships to dock at the mobile pier, even with help from tugboats. On March 25, one ship appeared to abandon its effort to dock at the pier where two other ships were already berthed. It succeeded the next day and was joined by a small tanker used to refuel the self-propelled barges, making for a total of four ships moored at the same time — a first for the formation. 在最近的演习中，即使有拖船的帮助，运输船也要花几个小时才能停靠在移动码头。3月25日，一艘船似乎放弃了停靠码头的努力，另有两艘船已经停泊在那里。第二天，它成功了，另外还有一艘为自行驳船加油的小型油轮，总共有四艘船同时系泊，是这种编队首次做到这一点。 Mr. Wang, the expert on satellite image analysis, said that at the shipyard in Guangzhou that built the new barges, another set of three was nearly finished and had entered the water for initial tests. 卫星图像分析专家杰森·王说，在建造新驳船的广州造船厂，另一组三艘驳船已接近完工，并已下水进行初步测试。 Robin Stein自纽约对本文有报道贡献。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Christoph Koettl是《纽约时报》视觉调查团队的记者。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
龙应台2025年4月2日 Taiwan’s cabdrivers are famously chatty, and after I settled into the back seat of a taxi in the island’s south recently, my cabby turned to me and cheerfully asked how my day was going, before abruptly declaring, “Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” 台湾的计程车司机是出了名的健谈，不久前，我在台湾南部坐上一辆计程车的后排座位后，司机转过身来，兴高采烈地问我今天过得怎么样，然后突然说道：“今天的乌克兰，就是明天的台湾”。 He was voicing a concern shared across Taiwan since President Trump pulled back on America’s strong support for Ukraine and added insult to injury by humiliating its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, at the White House in late February. Now people in Taiwan are wondering: If the United States could do that to Ukraine to cozy up to Russia, will it do the same to us to cozy up to China? 他说出了如今台湾各界普遍存在的担忧。特朗普总统撤回美国对乌克兰的大力支持，并且于2月底落井下石在白宫羞辱乌克兰总统泽连斯基。这让台湾民众不禁思考：如果美国为了讨好俄罗斯而对乌克兰做那样的事情，那它会不会为了讨好中国对我们也做同样的事情呢？ For decades, Taiwan’s leaders have framed our standoff with China — which claims Taiwan as its own territory and vows to take it, by force if necessary — as a defense of freedom and democracy, underpinned by the expectation that the United States would back us up if China were to invade. This created a false sense of security, allowing Taiwan’s politicians and people to delay a national reckoning over the best way for us to deal with China in order to ensure the long-term survival of our democracy. 几十年来，基于如果中国入侵美国会支持我们这样一种期待，台湾领导人一直把我们与中国的对峙——中国声称台湾是其领土，并誓言在必要时以武力夺取台湾——说成是对自由与民主的捍卫。这造成了一种不真实的安全感，使得台湾的政客和民众未能及时就处理与中国关系的最佳之道做出举国反思，以确保台湾民主制度的长期存续。 With Mr. Trump casting aside democratic values and America’s friends, Taiwan must begin an immediate, serious national conversation about how to secure peace with China on terms that are acceptable to us, rather than letting bigger powers decide our future. 随着特朗普将民主价值观和美国的朋友抛在一边，台湾必须立即开始一场严肃的全国性对话，讨论如何以我们可接受的条件确保实现与中国的和平，而不是让大国决定我们的未来。 In online comments and daily conversations, Taiwan’s people are expressing growing doubt over America’s commitment to Taiwan and asking: If the United States no longer seems willing to support a friendly nation like Ukraine in defending its freedom, did all those tens of thousands of young Ukrainians who fought and died for their country do so in vain? An informal poll in early March by an online platform popular with Taiwan college students asked whether, given the latest developments involving Ukraine, survey respondents were still willing to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack or preferred surrender. Most opted for surrender. 无论是在网上还是日常对话中，台湾民众对美国的协防承诺表示出越来越多的怀疑，并且会问：如果美国似乎不再愿意支持像乌克兰这样的友邦捍卫自由，那么数以万计为国捐躯的乌克兰年轻人是否白白浪费了生命？3月初，一个深受台湾大学生欢迎的网络平台做了一个非正式的民调，询问鉴于乌克兰的最新事态发展，受访者是否仍愿意保卫台湾抵御中国的进攻还是更倾向于投降。多数人选择了投降。 Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, appears oblivious to these sentiments. Rather than reaching out to all sides in Taiwan to initiate an urgent national discussion on the direction we should take, he is instead going for fear, confrontation and a revival of dark Cold War rhetoric. 台湾总统赖清德似乎对这些情绪视而不见。他非但没有与台湾各界接触，就我们应该何去何从发起一场紧迫的全国性讨论，反而选择制造恐惧、引发对抗，并且重拾冷战时期的那种黑暗言论。 On March 13, citing Chinese espionage, subversion and military threats, Mr. Lai officially labeled China a “foreign hostile force” and promised tighter scrutiny of business, cultural and other links with China. He also announced plans to reinstate a system of military courts to prosecute suspected national security crimes by Taiwan’s active-duty personnel, which was abolished in 2013 over human rights concerns. Taiwan’s leading opposition party, the Kuomintang, accused Mr. Lai of pushing Taiwan toward war, and China predictably warned that he was “playing with fire." 3月13日，以中国的间谍活动、颠覆活动和军事威胁为由，赖清德正式将中国列为“境外敌对势力”，并放话加强对与中国的商业、文化和其他联系的审查。他还宣布计划恢复军事审判制度，以起诉涉嫌国家安全犯罪的台湾现役军人，该制度因人权原因于2013年废除。台湾的主要反对党国民党指责赖清德将台湾推向战争，中国则警告说他在“玩火”。 The problem with Mr. Lai’s approach is that Taiwan can no longer bank on U.S. support. This isn’t something that we are just now realizing because of Mr. Trump, who, besides betraying Ukraine, has already sown doubt about his commitment to defending Taiwan, even accusing us of stealing the semiconductor business from America. 赖清德做法的问题在于，台湾不能再依赖美国的支持。这并非我们现在才意识到的，因为特朗普不只是背叛乌克兰，他对捍卫台湾的承诺也已经让人起疑，他甚至指责我们从美国偷走了半导体业务。 We have long been painfully aware that the United States, like any country, puts its own interests first. Taiwanese of all ages know what happened on Dec. 16, 1978, when Chiang Ching-kuo, our president at the time, was awakened at 2 a.m. and informed that the United States would sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan to recognize the People’s Republic of China, abandoning us — a Cold War ally — to deepening diplomatic isolation. Mr. Trump’s crude approach is merely a difference in style, not substance. 我们早就痛苦地意识到，与任何国家一样，美国也是把自己的利益放在第一位。在台湾，不管老幼，都知道1978年12月16日那天发生了什么，当时我们的蒋经国总统在凌晨两点被叫醒，被告知美国将断绝与台湾的外交关系，转而承认中华人民共和国，将我们这个冷战盟友抛弃，使我们陷入日益加深的外交孤立。特朗普的粗暴做法只是风格不同，而非实质上的差异。 With China growing in strength and the United States turning its back on the world, Taiwan is right to build up its military as a deterrence against attack. But the only way for Taiwan to peacefully secure its freedom is to somehow reconcile with China. Recent history suggests that is achievable. 在中国日益强大、美国背弃世界的情况下，台湾加强军事建设以遏制攻击的做法是正确的。但要以和平的方式保障自身自由，唯一途径是要以某种方式与中国达成和解。近几十年的历史表明，这是可以实现的。 For decades, Taiwan and China were deeply estranged and essentially in a state of war. But after the Cold War, relations gradually thawed. They were at their best during the presidency of Ma Ying-jeou, of the Kuomintang, from 2008 to 2016. The Kuomintang emphasizes cooperation with China as a way to ensure Taiwan’s stability and prosperity. 在数十年的时间里，两岸不相往来，基本上处于一种战争状态。但在冷战结束后，两岸关系逐渐解冻。在国民党的马英九担任总统期间，也就是2008年至2016年，两岸关系处于最佳状态。国民党强调，与中国的合作是确保台湾稳定繁荣的途径。 Under Mr. Ma’s administration, exchanges in academia, culture and commerce flourished, culminating in his historic meeting in 2015 with President Xi Jinping of China. It seemed, after decades of hostility, that reconciliation was possible. 在马英九执政时期，两岸在学术、文化和商业领域的交流蓬勃发展，甚至在2015年与中国国家主席习近平举行了具有历史意义的会面。在经历了数十年的敌对之后，两岸和解似乎成为了可能。 But the window quickly closed. Public skepticism over the warming ties with China grew in Taiwan, especially after China responded to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, which began in 2014, with a harsh crackdown that continues today. Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, which is justifiably distrustful of China and stresses protection of the island’s sovereignty, won the presidency in 2016 and has held it ever since. Relations with China have reverted to confrontation and fear. 但是窗口很快就关上了。在台湾，公众对与中国关系升温的怀疑与日俱增，尤其是在中国以严厉的镇压回应了始于2014年的香港民主抗议活动之后，这种镇压至今仍在继续。民进党不信任中国并强调捍卫台湾主权，这有其正当理由，该党于2016年赢得总统大选，此后一直执政。与中国的关系重新回到了对抗和恐惧之中。 But it is fear that is perhaps our greatest enemy. Fear breeds hatred and distrust, to the point that even suggesting peace with China is dismissed in Taiwan’s political discourse as naïve, unpatriotic or — worse — as surrender and betrayal. 但恐惧或许才是我们最大的敌人。恐惧滋生仇恨和不信任，以至于在台湾的政治话语中，即使建议与中国和平相处也会被视为天真、不爱国，或者更糟糕的：被斥为投降和背叛。 Fear also breeds an impulse for tighter control, the kind that Mr. Lai is now pursuing. I grew up in Taiwan in the 1950s, when we lived under martial law and constant fear of Chinese invasion. The increasingly tense atmosphere today — Taiwan’s purchase of U.S. weapons, Mr. Lai’s provocative labeling of China as an enemy and the return of Cold War-style suspicion surrounding exchanges with China — all feel like a disturbing return to that era, threatening peace and the progress Taiwan has made in building an open, democratic society. 恐惧还滋生了加强控制的冲动，而赖清德正在追求的正是这种控制。我在1950年代的台湾长大，当时我们生活在戒严令下，一直担心中国的入侵。如今日益紧张的气氛——台湾购买美国武器、赖清德挑衅性地将中国称为敌人，以及针对两岸交流而重新出现的冷战式的猜疑——都让人觉得回到了那个令人不安的时代，威胁着和平以及台湾在建立开放的民主社会方面所取得的进步。 The clock is now ticking for Taiwan. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi are expected to meet in person at some point soon. After what happened with Ukraine, there is a very real risk of Mr. Trump casting Taiwan aside to strike a trade or geopolitical deal with Mr. Xi. 对台湾来说，时间已经不多了。预计特朗普与习近平不久将举行会晤。在和乌克兰发生那样的事情后，特朗普很有可能为了与习近平达成贸易或地缘政治协议，将台湾抛在一边。 Virtually all of us in Taiwan want to protect our cherished freedom. Where we disagree is on how to achieve that — through conciliation or confrontation with China. But one thing is now clear: Relying entirely on the United States while rejecting and antagonizing China is no longer a viable path forward. There can be no democracy without first ensuring peace. 几乎所有台湾人都希望保护我们所珍视的自由。我们的分歧在于如何实现这一目标——是通过和解，还是与中国的对抗。但有一点现在是清楚的：完全依赖美国、同时拒绝和对抗中国不再是一条可行的前进道路。不首先确保和平，就不可能有民主。 龙应台是台湾作家、散文家和文化评论家。2012年至2014年，她担任马英九政府的第一任文化部长。她的作品包括《大江大海一九四九》。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年4月2日去年在长安汽车工厂生产的汽车。20多年来，长安汽车一直是福特在中国汽车市场的主要合作伙伴。 Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times Two of China’s biggest state-owned automakers are in advanced discussions to merge, in a deal that would create a formidable manufacturer of cars and military vehicles but could also create problems for their American and Japanese partners. 在中国国有汽车制造商中规模居前列的两家车企正就合并事宜进行深入讨论，这笔交易将缔造一家强大的小汽车和军用车辆制造商，但也可能给它们的美国和日本合作伙伴带来麻烦。 Dongfeng Motor and Changan Automobile have conducted detailed talks on how to combine their operations and told their foreign partners of their intentions, said two people with detailed knowledge of the discussions who were not authorized to comment. 两位了解谈判详情但未获授权发表评论的人士说，东风汽车和长安汽车已就如何合并业务进行了详细谈判，并向各自的外国合作伙伴说明了意图。 Although little known outside China, each company produces slightly more cars for its own brands and through joint ventures than global automakers like Mercedes-Benz or BMW. Dongfeng and Changan together make about five million cars a year — more than Ford Motor and almost as many as General Motors or Stellantis, the giant that owns Fiat, Chrysler and Peugeot. 尽管在中国以外的地方名气不大，这两家公司通过自主品牌和合资企业生产的汽车数量都略多于梅赛德斯-奔驰或宝马等全球汽车制造商。东风和长安每年共生产约500万辆汽车，高于福特汽车，和通用汽车或拥有菲亚特、克莱斯勒和标致的巨头斯特兰蒂斯几乎一样多。 A merger of Dongfeng and Changan would represent a significant consolidation of China’s auto market, the world’s largest, and another sign of the country’s rapid embrace of electric vehicles. Both companies have considerably more factory capacity for producing gasoline-powered cars than they need. 东风和长安的合并将标志着中国这个全球最大的汽车市场的重大整合，也是中国迅速接受电动汽车的又一表现。两家公司的汽油动力汽车产能都远远超过了市场对它们的需求。 Beijing’s hope is that a combined company will be able to close excess factories for gasoline cars and become more successful in electric cars. 北京希望合并后的公司将能够关闭过剩的汽油车工厂，并在电动汽车领域取得更大的成功。 China’s national government owns controlling stakes in Dongfeng and Changan. Dongfeng is a leading supplier of military vehicles to the People’s Liberation Army, and Changan is a subsidiary of a Chinese military contractor, which could draw unwanted attention from the Trump administration to a new, larger military supplier and its joint venture partners. 中国政府拥有东风和长安的控股权。东风是中国人民解放军军用车辆的主要供应商，长安是一家中国军事承包商的子公司，这可能会让一家新的、规模更大的军事供应商及其合资伙伴面临来自特朗普政府的不利关注。 Chongqing-based Changan has been Ford’s principal partner in the Chinese auto market for more than 20 years. Dongfeng, based in Wuhan, is the longstanding main China partner for Nissan Motor and one of two main partners in China for Honda Motor. 20多年来，总部位于重庆的长安一直是福特在中国汽车市场的主要合作伙伴。总部位于武汉的东风是日产汽车在中国的长期主要合作伙伴，也是本田汽车在中国的两大主要合作伙伴之一。 2022年，东风日产襄阳工厂的轿车装配线。 Changan and Dongfeng mainly produce gasoline-powered cars for their joint ventures. A merger that leads to a greater emphasis on electric cars for their own brands could affect their international partners. 长安和东风主要为其合资企业生产汽油动力汽车。如果两家公司合并，它们将更加重视自有品牌的电动汽车，这可能会影响到它们的国际合作伙伴。 Ford and Nissan declined to comment, and Honda did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 福特和日产拒绝置评，本田没有立即回应置评请求。 In an industry in which factories need to operate at 60 to 80 percent of capacity to make a profit, Dongfeng’s factories last year ran at 48 percent and Changan’s at 47 percent, according to AlixPartners, a global consulting firm. 根据全球咨询公司艾睿铂的数据，在这个工厂需要以60%到80%的产能运转才能盈利的行业中，东风的工厂去年的产能利用率为48%，长安的产能利用率为47%。 China’s State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission directly owns a controlling stake in Dongfeng and holds a similar interest indirectly in Changan through a large military contractor, China South Industries Group. 中国国有资产监督管理委员会直接持有东风的控股权，并通过大型军工承包商中国兵器装备集团间接持有长安的类似股权。 In a speech on Saturday, Gou Ping, the commission’s deputy director, called for China to “deploy strategic restructuring of central automotive enterprises for the production of complete vehicles” and focus on electric cars. 在上周六的一次讲话中，国资委副主任苟坪呼吁中国“对整车央企进行战略性重组”，并将重点放在电动汽车上。 Shares of both companies are publicly listed, with Dongfeng trading in Shanghai and Hong Kong and Changan in Shenzhen. Each issued a statement on Feb. 10 that its corporate parent was considering a transaction to change its ownership structure. The two companies did not mention each other in their statements. 两家公司的股票均公开上市，东风在上海和香港上市，长安在深圳上市。两家公司都在2月10日发表声明，称其母公司正在考虑进行一项交易，以改变其所有权结构。两家公司在声明中均未提及对方。 A woman in Changan’s securities department said that “we are currently awaiting further notification from the controlling shareholder.” The duty person at Changan’s controlling shareholder, China South Industries, said he had no information about Changan. Dongfeng officials did not respond to a request for comment. 长安汽车证券部门的一位女士表示：“我们目前正在等待控股股东的进一步通知。”长安汽车控股股东中国兵器装备集团的值班人员表示，他不了解长安汽车的情况。东风的管理人员没有回应置评请求。 2020年北京车展上的东风猛士车。 China faces enormous overcapacity in car production. State-controlled banks offer almost unlimited loans at low interest rates to companies that want to build electric car factories. As a result, car companies have been on a construction binge. 中国在汽车生产方面面临着巨大的产能过剩。国有银行向想要建设电动汽车工厂的公司提供几乎无限量的低息贷款。因此，汽车公司掀起了一场建造热潮。 Battery-electric vehicles and plug-in gasoline-electric cars have represented slightly over half the cars sold in China since last summer. China has enough factories to build more than twice as many cars as can be sold domestically and is ramping up exports. The United States and European Union have put tariffs on cars from China to limit imports. 自去年夏天以来，电池动力汽车和插电式混合动力汽车占中国汽车销量的一半多一点。中国的工厂足以生产出两倍于国内销量的汽车，并且正在增加出口。美国和欧盟已对来自中国的汽车征收关税，以限制进口。 The combined company after a merger of Dongfeng and Changan could be a big military contractor. 东风和长安合并后的公司可能成为大型军事承包商。 Dongfeng’s production includes trucks and Humvee-like personnel carriers as well as more specialized vehicles for launching drones, missiles and grenades. 东风的生产包括卡车和类似悍马的运兵车，以及用于发射无人机、导弹和榴弹的专业车辆。 When Beijing held a big military parade in 2015 to mark the 70th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II, Dongfeng supplied 180 military vehicles. Another parade is expected this September to mark the 80th anniversary. 2015年，北京为纪念二战击败日本70周年举行大型阅兵式时，东风提供了180辆军用车辆。预计今年9月将举行另一场阅兵，以纪念80周年。 Dongfeng has been a leader in Beijing’s effort to make sure that China makes all its military materiel within the country’s borders. The official China Daily newspaper said in 2015 that, from the engine down to each tiny screw, Dongfeng’s light tactical vehicle was made entirely in China. 东风一直引领着北京确保在本国境内制造所有军用物资的努力。中国官方报纸《中国日报》在2015年表示，从发动机到每个微小的螺丝，东风的轻型战术车完全在中国制造。 Siyi Zhao自北京对本文有研究贡献。River Akira Davis自东京有报道贡献。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。
DAISUKE WAKABAYASHI, CLAIRE FU2025年4月2日小米公司创始人兼首席执行官雷军上个月在北京举行的新车型发布会上。 Tingshu Wang/Reuters China’s Xiaomi, a consumer electronics giant turned automaker, said it was cooperating with a police investigation into a fatal crash involving one of its electric vehicles while the driver was using the car’s autonomous driving features. 转型汽车制造商的中国消费电子巨头小米表示，公司正在配合警方调查一起致命车祸，该事故涉及该公司的一辆电动汽车，事发时司机正在使用该车的自动驾驶功能。 A Xiaomi SU7 sedan drove into a concrete guardrail on an expressway in eastern China late Saturday at around 60 miles per hour, according to a post on Xiaomi’s official social media account. On Tuesday, local media published reports about the collision and ensuing fire, which killed three college students, along with pictures of the charred remains of the vehicle. 据小米官方社交媒体上的帖子称，周六晚些时候，一辆小米SU7轿车以每小时约100公里的速度，撞上了中国东部一条高速公路上的混凝土护栏。周二，当地媒体报道了撞车和随后发生的火灾，并发布了烧焦车辆残骸的照片。起火导致三名大学生死亡。 Xiaomi said the driver had deployed the company’s Navigate On Autopilot, an assisted-driving feature, while going around 70 m.p.h. on the expressway. The car was traveling at that speed when it reached a roadblock, because a portion of the road was under repair with traffic diverted into a different lane. 小米表示，司机在高速公路上以每小时116公里的速度行驶时，启用了该公司的NOA智能辅助驾驶。汽车在以这样的速度行驶时遇到了一个路障，因为部分道路正在维修，车辆被分流到另一条车道上。 Seconds before the collision, the car warned that there were obstacles ahead and started to decelerate, but it was too late. The company said it had called the police and emergency services. 碰撞前几秒，汽车警告前方有障碍物，并开始减速，但为时已晚。小米公司表示已致电警察和紧急服务部门。 The fatal crash took place one year after the launch of Xiaomi’s SU7 electric vehicle, a major shift for a company that had gained a cultlike following for its smartphones and home appliances. And the SU7, which bears a resemblance to the Porsche Taycan at a fraction of the price, has been a breakthrough success in China’s cutthroat electric vehicle market. It sold more than 200,000 units in its first year. 这起致命车祸发生在小米推出SU7电动汽车一年后，对于这家因其智能手机和家用电器而获得狂热追随者的公司来说，生产电动汽车是一个重大转变。外形酷似保时捷Taycan但价格只是其一个零头的SU7的在中国残酷的电动汽车市场取得了突破性的成功。第一年就卖出了20多万台。 The ability of a company with no automotive experience to build and sell a car capable of gaining market share so quickly is a testament to the advantages of China’s supply chain of batteries and key components for electric vehicles. It is also a warning to the automotive industry that the competition is no longer limited to traditional car brands but open to almost any company adept at manufacturing electronic products efficiently and inexpensively. 一家没有汽车制造经验的公司能够制造并销售一款汽车，并能如此迅速地获得市场份额，这证明了中国电动汽车电池和关键零部件供应链的优势。这也是对汽车行业的一个警告——竞争不再局限于传统汽车品牌，而是向几乎所有擅长高效、廉价制造电子产品的公司开放。 Xiaomi’s stock has fallen nearly 9 percent on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this week. Last week, the company raised about $5.5 billion by selling new shares to fund an expansion in the electric vehicle business. 本周，小米在香港证券交易所的股价下跌了近9%。上周，该公司通过出售新股筹集了约425亿港元，为其电动汽车业务的扩张提供资金。 China has aggressively promoted assisted driving or driverless technology in a bid to establish global leadership in the emerging field. Many Chinese makers of electric vehicles include these advanced features on their mass-production cars. When there are fatal accidents involving the technology, information about the crashes is quietly removed from the Chinese internet. 中国积极推动辅助驾驶或无人驾驶技术，希望在这个新兴领域建立全球领导地位。许多中国电动汽车制造商在其批量生产的汽车中加入了这些先进功能。当发生涉及该技术的致命事故时，有关事故的信息会悄悄从中国互联网上删除。 Xiaomi promotes its assisted-driving capabilities on the company’s official website. It says the car can automatically accelerate or decelerate, change lanes, enter and exit a highway, and avoid construction. However, it cautions that these “intelligent assisted driving” features cannot “completely replace” a driver controlling the vehicle. 小米在公司官网上宣传其辅助驾驶功能。该公司表示，它的汽车可以自动加速或减速，改变车道，进出高速公路，避开施工。然而，该公司警告称，这些“智能辅助驾驶”功能并不能“完全取代”驾驶员控制车辆。 Xiaomi said the car involved in the crash was a standard model of its SU7. That model is not equipped with mounted laser-based sensors known as lidar, an acronym for light detection and ranging systems. 小米表示，发生事故的汽车是其SU7的标准型号。该型号没有安装lidar，也就是“光探测和测距系统”。 Wang Yinglai, an automobile expert at the Zhejiang Consumer Council, told state-run media that a car driving on the highway would have more difficulty detecting stationary or slow-moving objects in front without that laser-based sensor. 浙江消费者委员会的汽车专家汪英来告诉官方媒体，如果没有这种基于激光的传感设备，在高速公路上行驶的汽车将更难探测到前方的低速或静止物体。 On the Chinese social media service Weibo, a woman with the surname Wang whom the platform verified as the mother of one of the victims, said Xiaomi had not contacted the family since the tragedy. 在中国社交媒体服务微博上，一位经该平台核实为其中一名遇难者的母亲的王姓女士表示，自悲剧发生以来，小米一直没有联系过家属。 “My home has collapsed after my daughter’s accident,” Ms. Wang wrote. “We just want an explanation.” “女儿发生了这个意外后，我的家里已经塌了，”王女士写道。“我们只想要一个说法。” China’s Southern Metropolis Daily, a newspaper run by the ruling Communist Party, reported that a father of one of the other victims said his daughter and a classmate had burned to death in the crash. He, too, said the company had not contacted him. 据执政的共产党经营的报纸《南方都市报》报道，另一名遇难者的父亲说，他的女儿和一名同学在车祸中被烧死。他也表示，该公司没有联系他。 In a second statement late Tuesday, Xiaomi’s automobile division said that it had tried with permission and guidance from the police to meet with the families earlier in the day, but that the company was still waiting to hear back. 在周二晚些时候的第二份声明中，小米的汽车部门表示，在警方的许可和指导下，该公司曾试图在当天早些时候与遇难者家属会面，但公司仍在等待回复。 In a separate post on social media, Lei Jun, Xiaomi’s founder and chief executive, expressed his condolences to the families of the deceased and thanked people for their “attention and criticism.” He said there were many questions that the company could not answer at the moment about the crash, but he pledged that Xiaomi would not try to avoid responsibility. 小米公司创始人兼首席执行官雷军在社交媒体上另行发文，向死者家属表示哀悼，并感谢人们的“关注和批评”。他表示，关于这起事件，目前有许多问题公司无法回答，但他保证小米不会试图逃避责任。 Daisuke Wakabayashi是时报驻首尔亚洲商业记者，报道区域经济、公司和地缘政治新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Claire Fu报道中国新闻，主要关注该国经济和社会议题。她常驻首尔。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎2025年4月2日玛丽亚·廖（音）是东莞市雅润丽（音）玩具厂的老板。“我不知道下个季度情况会怎样，”她说。 Qilai Shen for The New York Times Women in blue cloth hairnets sew the finishing touches on plush pink piggies and orange stuffed foxes, before tossing them onto giant piles in Maria Liao’s factory in southern China. They will be boxed and shipped to the United States, where many of Ms. Liao’s clients are based. 头戴蓝色无纺布头套的女工们把粉红色的毛绒小猪和橙色的毛绒狐狸缝好后扔到一大堆玩偶上，这些玩具将从玛丽亚·廖（音）开在中国南方的工厂装箱运往美国，廖女士的许多客户都在美国。 The factory is quieter than it should be. Orders are down this year, as Ms. Liao’s customers hesitate in the face of a succession of tariffs that President Trump has put on products coming from China, another round of which will probably come this week. The duties have upended small businesses in the United States that depend on factories in China to build the things they design and sell. 工厂与应有的状态相比过于安静。今年的订单少了，这是因为面对特朗普总统对中国商品接连加征关税，廖女士的客户们犹豫不决，而且本周还将迎来新一轮关税。这些关税已严重影响了美国的小企业，它们依靠中国工厂来生产他们设计和销售的产品。 The tariffs are also reverberating on the other side of the ocean in two-floor factories like Ms. Liao’s Dongguan Yarunli Toys. 这些关税也影响着大洋彼岸，比如廖女士的两层楼工厂——东莞雅润里（音）玩具厂。 “We are helpless,” said Ms. Liao, 33, who runs the factory with her older brother. “I don’t know what the next quarter will be like.” “我们无能为力，”现年33岁的廖女士说，她和哥哥一起经营这家工厂。“我不知道下个季度会怎么样。” Ms. Liao is one of millions of people in China who sew, cut, build and assemble the toys, clothes, tools and cars that Americans use every day. The work they do allows companies to make and sell things to households in the United States quickly and cheaply. 美国人日常生活中用的玩具、衣服、工具，以及汽车是像廖女士这样的成千上百万中国人裁剪、缝制、制造、组装的。他们的工作让美国公司能快速廉价地制造产品，并将它们便宜地卖给美国的家庭。 中国是世界制造强国，去年的对外贸易顺差高达7万亿人民币。工人在生产车间对毛绒玩具做最后修饰。 With its $1 trillion global trade surplus, China remains the world’s manufacturing powerhouse. But Ms. Liao’s struggles show how Mr. Trump’s tariffs, which include a base of 20 percent on all goods, are challenging a long-held truth in China. The United States may no longer be the main destination for products made by small-businesses like Ms. Liao’s. 中国是世界制造业强国，中国去年的对外贸易顺差高达7万多亿人民币。但廖女士的困境表明，特朗普的关税（包括对所有商品征收的20%基础关税）正在挑战中国人长期以来认为是理所当然的事情。像廖女士这样的小企业生产的产品也许不能再以美国为主要目的地。 One of her customers, who sells toy dolls based on characters from a book, recently asked for a 20 percent price cut — something Ms. Liao said she could not accommodate. She makes a 30 percent profit margin on the goods she produces, a cushion that allows for the fluctuation of costs for material and labor. Such a steep cut in prices would wipe out most of her profit, making it difficult to continue operating, Ms. Liao said. 廖女士的一个美国客户销售以书中人物为原型的玩具娃娃，该客户最近要求她降价20%，廖女士说她无法满足这个要求。她生产商品的利润率是30%，这让她在面对生产材料和劳动力成本波动上有个缓冲。廖女士说，降价20%会让她的大部分利润消失，让工厂难以经营下去。 Still, it wasn’t easy for her to say no. Last year, that customer ordered 25,000 toy dolls, one of the biggest single orders Ms. Liao received. This year, overall orders are down nearly 30 percent, she said. 尽管如此，拒绝对方也并非易事。该客户去年订购了2.5万个玩具娃娃，是廖女士收到过的最大单笔订单之一。她说，今年的订单总量整体上减少了近30%。 For hard-working Chinese businesses that had long tied their prosperity to the demands of American customers, Mr. Trump’s aim to sever trade ties with China is forcing a more urgent question: What next? 对那些长期将自己的繁荣与美国客户的需求联系在一起的勤奋的中国企业来说，特朗普试图切断美中贸易关系的目标已迫使他们面对一个更紧迫的问题：下一步该怎么办？ It is a hard one for Ms. Liao to answer. For starters, American companies make up 30 percent of her export business. She also values the harder-to-measure cultural benefits she has gained from trade with the United States. 这个问题对廖女士来说很难回答。首先，美国公司占她出口业务的30%。她也看重与美国做生意让她获得的难以用金钱衡量的文化益处。 Working with U.S. businesses has changed her outlook on everything from how she conducts business to how she sees her place in society. 与美国企业合作改变了她对各种事物的看法，从如何经营业务到如何看待自己在社会中的地位。 去年，一位客户购买了2.5万个玩偶，这是该制造商最大的一笔订单。今年，订单减少了近30%。廖女士是中国数以百万计生产美国人日常使用的玩具、服装、汽车和工具的工厂主之一。 Ms. Liao started her factory with her brother in 2019 after five years of working in another toy factory and helping to find new customers. She said she had been more reserved when interacting with clients. But then she starting working with American business owners who were direct and open about everything, right down to their personal lives. 廖女士在另一家玩具厂工作了五年并帮助他们寻找新客户，后来于2019年和哥哥一起创办了自己的工厂。她说，在与客户打交道时，她一直比较拘谨。但后来她开始与美国企业主合作，他们对任何事情都很直接和开放，甚至包括他们的个人生活。 One customer in particular has had an outsize influence on her life, Ms. Liao said. 廖女士说，有一位客户对她的生活产生了巨大的影响。 Erica Campbell’s Phoenix-based company, Be a Heart, has been a client of Ms. Liao’s since the beginning. Ms. Campbell’s orders for Jesus and Mary dolls have made up one-tenth of Ms. Liao’s work. 埃里卡·坎贝尔在菲尼克斯的公司Be a Heart从一开始就是廖女士的客户。坎贝尔订购的耶稣和玛利亚玩偶占廖女士产量的十分之一。 In that time, Ms. Liao and Ms. Campbell, 36, each gave birth to their first children. Their personal lives have become intertwined with conversations about business collaborations and product designs. Ms. Liao said it was the first time she had known a woman who juggled family duties and her own business. In their conversations, Ms. Liao said, Ms. Campbell would sometimes describe finding time in the middle of the night to draw a design for the next product. 在那段时间里，廖女士和36岁的坎贝尔都生了第一个孩子。她们的个人生活同商业合作和产品设计的讨论交织在一起。廖女士说，这是她第一次认识一个能够兼顾家庭责任和自己事业的女人。廖女士说，在她们的交谈中，坎贝尔女士有时会描述自己在半夜抽出时间为下一个产品画设计。 Seeing a woman juggle work and home gave her confidence to keep working after her daughter’s birth, Ms. Liao said. 廖女士说，看到一个女人兼顾工作和家庭，让她在女儿出生后有信心继续工作。 A few months ago, Ms. Liao messaged Ms. Campbell to tell her that business was really slow, weighed down by the worsening trade tensions between China and the United States. She was trying to figure out how to keep things afloat. In response, Ms. Campbell shared her own challenges. “I’m flailing,” Ms. Campbell wrote back. One of her employees had just left unexpectedly and Ms. Campbell had recently given birth to her third child. “Motherhood is kicking my butt,” she said. 几个月前，廖女士给坎贝尔发消息告诉她，由于中美之间日益恶化的贸易紧张局势，生意真的很清淡。她在想办法维持。坎贝尔在回复中分享了她自己的挑战。“我在挣扎，”坎贝尔写道。她的一名员工刚刚意外离职，坎贝尔最近生下了自己的第三个孩子。“做母亲让我很辛苦，”她说。 特朗普总统的关税措施正在挑战一个长期存在的事实：美国可能不再是中国小企业的首选市场。对于依赖美国需求的中国企业来说，特朗普政府推动削减贸易关系提出了一个紧迫的问题： 下一步该怎么办？ Then she had an idea. Ms. Liao could take over some of the work that the employee had been doing, sourcing materials and communicating with other factories in China. “She did it so well,” Ms. Campbell said. 然后她有了一个主意。廖女士可以接手这名员工一直在做的部分工作，比如采购材料、与中国其他工厂沟通。“她做得很好，”坎贝尔说。 When Ms. Campbell finally placed her 2025 Christmas production order with Ms. Liao a few weeks ago, it was half the size of her order last year because of the uncertainty over tariffs and a recession, something that Mr. Trump has said is possible. 几周前，坎贝尔终于向廖女士下了2025年圣诞产品的订单，由于关税和经济衰退的不确定性，订单规模只有去年的一半，而特朗普曾表示，经济衰退是有可能发生的。 For now, Ms. Campbell plans to shoulder most of the tariffs and pass some of the cost on to her customers. But if tariffs go above 20 percent, she said, she will have to talk to Ms. Liao about what to do next. 目前，坎贝尔计划承担大部分关税，并将部分成本转嫁给顾客。但她说，如果关税超过20%，她将不得不与廖女士讨论下一步该怎么做。 It will be a difficult conversation. Ms. Campbell said she didn’t feel comfortable asking her Chinese partner to take on costs that Ms. Liao had no control over. 这将是一次困难的谈话。坎贝尔说，让她的中国合伙人承担无法控制的成本让她感到难受。 “We are often dealing with the same small-business stressors and have had to navigate so much,” Ms. Campbell said. “People like to create this divide, but we are the same and were just born in different countries.” “我们经常面临同样的小企业压力，不得不应付这么多问题，”坎贝尔说。“人们喜欢制造这种分歧，但我们是一样的人，只是出生在不同的国家。” To Ms. Liao, if everyone raises their costs to soften the blow of tariffs, it could lead to a situation she would prefer not to confront: “We may not be able to serve American customers.” 对廖女士来说，如果所有人都提高成本来减轻关税的打击，可能会导致她不愿面对的局面：“我们可能无法为美国客户提供服务了。” Li You对本文有研究贡献。 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
储百亮2025年4月2日台湾国防部称中国的“山东”号航空母舰周一出现在台湾周边水域，本图由台湾国防部提供。 Taiwan Defense Ministry, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images China launched military exercises pressing in on Taiwan on Tuesday, sending warships and fighter planes in what Beijing said was a warning to the island democracy’s president, Lai Ching-te, after he called China a “foreign hostile force.” 中国周二举行军事演习，派军舰和战斗机逼近台湾。中国政府表示，这是对台湾民选领导人赖清德发出的警告，他此前曾称中国是“境外敌对势力”。 Chinese land, navy, air and missile forces would “approach close” to Taiwan and practice “seizure of overall control, strikes on sea and land targets, and the blockade and control of key areas and lanes” at sea, Senior Col. Shi Yi, a spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army regional command that oversees Taiwan, said in a statement issued on Chinese state-run media. 中国的陆军、海军、空军，以及火箭军“抵近台岛”，进行“夺取综合制权、对海对陆打击、要域（及海上）要道封控”演习，中国人民解放军东部战区新闻发言人施毅陆军大校在中国官媒上发布的声明中说，东部战区包括台海地区。 Sometimes, China’s military does not spell out why it holds drills. This time, officials and state media reports were clear: “This is firm punishment for the Lai Ching-te administration’s rampant ‘pro-independence’ provocations,” Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman for the Chinese government’s office on Taiwanese affairs, said in a statement. 中国军方有时不解释举行演习的原因。但军方和官媒报道对这次演习有很明确的说法，中国政府台湾事务办公室发言人朱凤莲在一份声明中表示：“是对赖清德当局猖狂谋‘独’挑衅的坚决惩戒。” Ms. Zhu singled out a speech by Mr. Lai on March 13 in which he described China as a “foreign hostile force” and laid out 17 measures that Mr. Lai said would combat deepening Chinese subversion and spying in Taiwan. Those included restoring military tribunals for cases against military personnel who spy and strengthening oversight of cultural, political and religious exchanges with China. Beijing says that Taiwan is its territory, and that it will eventually absorb the island, by force if Chinese leaders deem that necessary. 朱凤莲专门提了赖清德今年3月13日的讲话，赖清德在讲话中称中国是“境外敌对势力”，并提出了17条针对被赖清德称为中国“在台湾内部进行分化、破坏、颠覆等活动”的反击措施，包括恢复军事法院审判被指控犯有间谍罪的台湾军人，加强对台湾人与中国进行文化、政治和宗教交流的监管。中国政府坚称台湾是其领土，并将在中国领导人认为有必要的时候时，最终使用武力吞并台湾。 台湾总统赖清德上个月在台北发表了关于中国进行颠覆活动的讲话。 Later on Tuesday, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tallied the Chinese military weaponry that had approached Taiwan by early afternoon: 71 sorties by military aircraft, including drones, and 21 navy ships ranged around the island, including a group accompanying the Shandong aircraft carrier that was about 220 nautical miles east of Taiwan. 周二晚些时候，台湾国防部公布了其统计到的截至下午早些时候接近台湾的中国军械数量：71架次军机（包括无人机）， 出现在台湾岛周边水域的21艘海军舰艇，包括出现在台湾以东约220海里的“山东”号航空母舰战斗群舰队。 None of the Chinese ships or planes crossed a boundary of 24 nautical miles around Taiwan, ministry officials told reporters. The Chinese Coast Guard also announced that it had sent ships on “law enforcement” patrol around two groups of islands controlled by Taiwan. 台湾国防部官员对记者说，没有一艘中国舰艇或一架中国飞机越过台湾周边24海里的界线。中国海警局还宣布已派船只在台湾控制的两座岛屿周围进行“执法巡查”。 “Clearly, the Chinese Communist Party is trying to enhance the effectiveness of its military displays and intimidation by deliberately sending ships within our vicinity, creating opportunities for close armed encounters,” said Chieh Chung, a researcher at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, an organization in Taipei supported by the defense ministry. “很明显，中国共产党正在试图加强其军事展示和恐吓的有效性，蓄意派船只进入我们附近的水域，制造发生近距离武装冲突的机会，”台湾国防安全研究院研究员钟杰说，这个由国防部支持的研究院设在台北。 But despite Beijing’s fiery language and sizable military display, experts said that the exercises appeared intended to intimidate Taiwan without tipping over into a wider confrontation. Mr. Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party deny that Taiwan is a part of China — a key premise of Beijing’s claim that the island is its territory — and officials in Beijing have already vehemently denounced Mr. Lai’s recent speech. On Tuesday, Chinese media published cartoons that depicted Mr. Lai as a parasitic grub. 尽管北京方面言辞激烈，这次军事展示规模庞大，但专家们说，演习似乎是为了恐吓台湾，而不是要引发更广泛的对抗。赖清德及其所在的民进党否认台湾是中国的一部分，那是中国政府声称对台湾拥有主权的一个关键假定，中国官员已对赖清德最近的讲话表示强烈谴责。中国媒体在周二发表的漫画中将赖清德描绘为寄生虫。 “It’s trying to get in closer to Taiwan to exert more psychological pressure,” Su Tzu-yun, another researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said of China’s latest exercises. “军演是试图更接近台湾，以施加更大的心理压力，”国防安全研究院的另一名研究员苏紫云在谈到中国最近的演习时说。 While Beijing has linked the exercises to Mr. Lai’s comments, Mr. Su and other experts said, China’s leaders also appeared to be sending an implicit message to the Trump administration. Mr. Lai has sought to maintain U.S. support for Taiwan during President Trump’s term, including by promising to raise its military spending to more than 3 percent of the island’s economic output this year. 苏紫云和其他专家表示，虽然中国将军演与赖清德的言论联系起来，但中国领导人似乎也在向特朗普政府发出一个不直接言明的信息。赖清德已寻求在特朗普总统任期间继续使台湾得到美国的支持，包括承诺将今年的军事开支提高到台湾经济产出的3%以上。 “The publicity around the exercise likely also has the U.S. in mind — they want to persuade the Trump administration that Lai is a troublemaker and to deter the U.S. from maintaining high levels of support to Taiwan,” said Amanda Hsiao, an analyst for the Eurasia Group who monitors Chinese foreign policy and China-Taiwan tensions. “围绕这次军演的宣传也可能考虑了美国——他们想说服特朗普政府，赖清德是个麻烦制造者，不想让美国继续向台湾提供高水平的支持，”欧亚集团的分析师萧嫣然说，她对中国的外交政策和台海紧张局势做跟踪调查。 The exercises came days after the U.S. defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, visited Tokyo to discuss strengthening military ties with Japan. Mr. Hegseth said there that the Trump administration would focus on countering Chinese power, including its efforts to squeeze Taiwan. 几天前，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在访问东京期间讨论了加强与美日军事关系的问题。海格塞斯在东京说，特朗普政府将把重点转移到制衡中国影响力上来，包括中国对台湾施压的努力。 “America is committed to sustaining robust, ready and credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, including across the Taiwan Strait,” Mr. Hegseth said in a news conference with Japan’s defense minister, Gen Nakatani. Mr. Hegseth has also issued internal guidelines in the Pentagon that say U.S. forces must focus on deterring China from trying to seize Taiwan by force, the Washington Post reported. “美国致力于在印度太平洋地区，包括台湾海峡，保持强大、随时可用且可信的威慑力，”海格塞斯在与日本防卫大臣中谷元一起举行的新闻发布会上说。据《华盛顿邮报》报道，海格塞斯已在国防部内部发了指导方针，称美国军队必须把精力集中在让中国不敢试图用武力夺取台湾上。 美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯和日本防卫大臣中谷元周日在东京。 Still, China may not have an appetite right now for extended military exercises that could deepen the divisions between the Trump administration and China’s leader, Xi Jinping. Mr. Xi is already squaring off with Mr. Trump over additional U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that were imposed last month, with possibly more tariffs to come this week. The official Chinese statements about the latest exercises did not mention the United States. 尽管如此，中国目前可能没有扩展军事演习的胃口，因为那可能会加深特朗普政府与中国领导人习近平之间的隔阂。习近平已在美国上个月对中国商品加征额外关税的问题上与特朗普针锋相对，美国本周可能还会加征更多关税。中国对最近这次军演发表的官方声明中没有提美国。 “China is definitely interested in not showing weakness,” Wen-Ti Sung, a researcher in Taiwan and a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said of Mr. Xi’s approach to the Trump administration. “But China will respond with just enough firmness to make sure that an off ramp for it still remains.” “中国肯定对示弱不感兴趣，”大西洋理事会全球中国中心的非常驻台湾籍研究员宋文笛在谈到习近平对特朗普政府的态度时说。“但中国将以足够坚定的姿态作出回应，以确保它仍有一条退路。” 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
JASON FURMAN2025年4月1日 Erik Carter My local bookstore has been taking advantage of me for years. I have run a trade deficit, giving it money with nothing but books in return. At the same time I have been taking advantage of my employer, running a trade surplus with it as it gives me a salary with nothing but educational services in exchange. 多年来，本地书店一直在占我的便宜。我一直处于贸易逆差状态，我给它钱，却只换回了书。与此同时，我一直在占我雇主的便宜，与雇主保持着贸易顺差，因为雇主给我工资，却只换回了教育服务。 Thinking that way about the kinds of exchanges we all engage in is obviously absurd. But that’s precisely the reasoning behind the “reciprocal tariffs” President Trump is expected to announce this week. The details have not yet come into view, but if he does follow through, it’s clear the plan would add to what are already the nation’s highest tariffs since the 1940s. Their effect will be lower economic growth, higher inflation, higher unemployment, the destruction of wealth and a tax increase on American families. It will deal a blow to the rules underlying the global trading system and further empower China. 用这种方式来看待我们所做的各种交换显然是荒谬的。但这正是特朗普总统预计将于本周宣布的“对等关税”的依据。虽然细节尚未公布，但如果他真的贯彻执行，很明显，该计划将使本已达到美国自上世纪40年代以来最高水平的关税进一步增加。其后果将是经济增长放缓、通货膨胀加剧、失业率上升、财富缩水以及美国家庭的税收增加。它将对全球贸易体系的基础规则造成打击，并进一步增强中国的实力。 Mr. Trump has cycled through numerous rationales for tariffs: They will raise revenues, with foreigners footing the bill. They will help American manufacturers and national security. They will provide leverage against Mexican fentanyl and Canadian sovereignty. In all of these cases there is a bit of truth and a lot of falsehood. 特朗普反复提出了许多征收关税的理由：它们将增加收入，由外国人买单。它们有助于美国的制造商和国家安全。它们将为对抗墨西哥芬太尼和加拿大主权提供筹码。所有这些理由都有一些真实的成分，以及大量虚假的成分。 But the one argument Mr. Trump has returned to again and again is that other countries are taking advantage of the United States. He measures the degree to which they are doing so by the magnitude of our trade deficit with them — that is, how much more money we spend on another country’s goods and services than we get from selling it our goods and services. 但特朗普一再重申的一个论点是，其他国家正在占美国的便宜。他通过我们与其他国家的贸易逆差来衡量这些国家占美国便宜的程度——也就是说，我们花在另一个国家的商品和服务上的钱比我们卖给它的商品和服务的钱多多少。 In this reckoning, the reason those deficits arise is that other countries erect tariffs and other trade barriers against the United States. It follows from this analysis that the solution is to reciprocate by erecting our own tariffs, which will either protect the United States or else get other countries to lower their barriers, either way reducing or eliminating the trade deficits. 根据这一计算，产生这些赤字的原因是其他国家对美国设立了关税和其他贸易壁垒。从这一分析中可以得出，解决方案是通过建立我们自己的关税来回击，这要么保护了美国，要么能让其他国家降低壁垒，无论哪种方式都可以减少或消除贸易逆差。 Every step in this chain of reasoning is wrong. 这个推理过程中的每一步都是错的。 Start with the fact that imports are good, not bad. They offer consumers greater variety, such as avocados from Mexico, lower prices on cars from South Korea or greater quality, including Champagne from France. American companies are able to offer better products at lower prices and be globally competitive because they use imported steel, auto parts and precision machinery. Moreover, importing these items frees us up to devote more of our production and employment to higher productivity and higher-wage jobs, including in export industries such as aerospace and software design. 首先，进口是好事不是坏事。它们为消费者提供了更丰富的选择（墨西哥牛油果）、更低的价格（韩国汽车），或者更高的质量（法国香槟）。美国公司得以更低的价格提供更好的产品，并具有全球竞争力，因为它们使用进口钢材、汽车零部件和精密机械。此外，进口这些产品使我们能够将更多的生产和就业投入到更高生产率和更高工资的工作中，包括航空航天和软件设计等出口行业。 Running bilateral trade deficits is generally not an indication of a problem or an abuse. In recent years the United States exported more to Brazil than it imported, a fact that had more to do with Brazil’s appetite for American oil and airplanes than any trade barriers. In fact, Brazil levies an average tariff of 6 percent on goods coming from the United States, well in excess of the 1 percent levied by the United States on imports from Brazil. Same in reverse for the United States and France: We import more than we export despite having a higher tariff on their goods than they do on ours. 双边贸易逆差通常并不表明存在问题或不当行为。近年来，美国对巴西的出口大于进口，这一事实更多地是与巴西对美国石油和飞机的需求有关，而不是任何贸易壁垒。事实上，巴西对来自美国的商品征收6%的平均关税，远高于美国对从巴西进口的商品征收的1%的关税。美国和法国的情况也一样：尽管对他们的商品征收的关税比他们对我们的商品征收的关税高，但我们的进口多于出口。 In fact, there is generally no correlation between a country’s tariff levels and its overall trade balance. A particularly clear example is the 27 countries in the European Union, which have identical tariffs and other trade policies but range from trade deficits to trade surpluses. 事实上，一个国家的关税水平与其总体贸易平衡之间通常没有相关性。一个特别明显的例子是欧盟的27个国家，它们有相同的关税和其他贸易政策，但贸易逆差和贸易顺差各不相同。 So if tariffs don’t create trade deficits, what does? The answer has to do with whether a country saves its money or invests it, in things like factories, infrastructure and research. The United States invests more than it saves, which has helped fuel our enviable productivity and growth. To fill the gap, we attract money from overseas. Foreign investors exchange their euros, yen and yuan for dollars to invest in the United States. We can then use those euros, yen and yuan to buy more of what we want from Europe, Japan and China than we sell them. Voilà, a deficit. 那么，如果关税不会造成贸易逆差，那什么会呢？答案与一个国家是把钱存起来还是投资在工厂、基础设施和研究等方面有关。美国的投资大于储蓄，这有助于推动我们令人羡慕的生产力和增长。为了填补缺口，我们从海外吸引资金。外国投资者将欧元、日元和人民币兑换成美元，在美国投资。然后，我们可以用这些欧元、日元和人民币从欧洲、日本和中国购买更多我们想要的东西，而不是卖给他们。这就是逆差。 What then will these reciprocal tariffs do? They will lessen the overall volume of trade. The United States will import less because foreign goods and services will become more expensive. It will also export less, because the tariffs that other countries erect against us will make our stuff more expensive for them. 那么这些对等关税会带来什么后果呢？它们会减少贸易总量。美国将减少进口，因为外国商品和服务将变得更加昂贵。美国的出口也会减少，因为其他国家对我们征收的关税将使我们的产品对他们来说更加昂贵。 Even if other countries don’t retaliate against our tariffs with a slew of their own, the situation is still bad. Take automobile tariffs on Mexico. They would cause Americans to buy fewer cars from that country, so we would need fewer pesos, the things with which you buy their cars. As demand for Mexican currency goes down, so does its value relative to the dollar. But a strong dollar makes it more expensive for foreign countries to buy our exports. Either way, less trade, which would be bad for both consumers and workers. (As an aside, if the tariffs do succeed in meaningfully lowering trade deficits it would most likely be because they caused a recession, bringing down the amount U.S. consumers buy or businesses invest.) 即使其他国家不对我们的关税采取报复措施，情况仍然很糟糕。以墨西哥的汽车关税为例。它们会导致美国人减少从那个国家购买汽车，因此我们需要的比索（购买汽车的货币）也会减少。随着对墨西哥货币需求的下降，其相对于美元的价值也在下降。但是，强势美元使外国购买我们的出口产品变得更加昂贵。无论哪种情况，贸易都会减少，这对消费者和工人都不利。（顺便说一句，如果关税真的能有效地降低贸易逆差，那很可能是因为它们引发了经济衰退，降低了美国消费者的购买量或企业的投资。） If all reciprocal tariffs are bad in theory, however, Mr. Trump’s seem likely to be even worse in practice. That’s because he’s not just looking to even things out with other countries by raising U.S. tariffs by a percentage point or two, the current difference in tariff rates between the United States and many of its trade partners. Instead, he has been cherry-picking examples of goods where other countries have higher tariffs than the United States while ignoring the many cases where the reverse is true. 如果说所有的对等关税在理论上都是不好的，那么特朗普的关税在实践中可能会更糟。这是因为他不只是希望通过将美国关税提高一两个百分点（这是目前美国与许多贸易伙伴之间的关税税率差异）来实现双方税率的均等。他是在刻意挑选其他国家的关税高于美国的商品作为例子，而忽略了许多相反的情况。 The president even claimed that foreign value-added taxes, or VATs, discriminate against American exports. It is true that these VATs apply to American goods, from oranges to cars to cosmetics. But they apply in equal measure to European oranges and cars and cosmetics. They don’t discriminate against the United States or any other country. And demanding that European countries change them would mean demanding that they alter core aspects of their tax systems. Why would they ever agree? 总统甚至声称外国的增值税是对美国出口的歧视。的确，这些增值税适用于从橙子到汽车再到化妆品的美国商品。但它们同样适用于欧洲的橙子、汽车和化妆品。它们并不歧视美国或任何其他国家。要求欧洲国家改变这些税收，就意味着要求他们改变税收制度的核心方面。他们怎么会同意呢？ The consequences of this are serious. In Mr. Trump’s first term he raised average tariffs by about 1.5 percentage points. With all of the trade measures he has already carried out this year, they have gone up another six percentage points — and reciprocal tariffs could add much more. All told, the tariff increases in the first four months of his latest trade war are likely to be five to 10 times as large as those he imposed in the four years of his first term. 这样的后果是严重的。特朗普在第一个任期内将平均关税提高了约1.5个百分点。在他今年已经实施的所有贸易措施中，关税又上升了6个百分点——而对等关税可能会增加更多。总而言之，在他最新一次贸易战的前四个月里，关税增幅可能是他第一个任期四年的五到10倍。 There’s been a lot of talk about whether that will crash the economy altogether. The enormous increase in business uncertainty that tariffs have engendered means anything could happen. Goldman Sachs, however, estimates that given this new round of tariffs, economic growth will decline by about 0.5 percentage point (largely because imported goods are only one-tenth of U.S. gross domestic product). Not a huge number on its own, though it translates to about $1,000 per household but it would push up inflation by a similar magnitude. All of this is on top of the harm done by all the tariffs that have already been announced. 有很多人在谈论这是否会使整个经济崩溃。关税造成的商业不确定性大幅增加意味着任何事情都有可能发生。但高盛估计，考虑到新一轮的关税，经济增长将下降约0.5个百分点（主要是因为进口商品仅占美国国内生产总值的十分之一）。这本身并不是一个巨大的数字，虽然可以换算成每个家庭约1000美元，但它会推高通货膨胀率。所有这一切都是在已经宣布的所有关税造成的伤害之上。 Lower-income families will pay a higher fraction of their income in tariffs, but the revenue will very likely go to tax cuts skewed to high-income households. The stock market has already lost more than $3 trillion since Mr. Trump first dialed up his tariff threats in February. The losses could grow over time as the United States increasingly distances itself from the benefits of imports, exports and global supply chains. 低收入家庭将把收入的很大一部分用于支付关税，但这些税收很可能用于向高收入家庭倾斜的减税。自特朗普今年2月首次发出关税威胁以来，股市已经损失了超过3万亿美元。随着美国越来越远离进口、出口和全球供应链的好处，这种损失可能会随着时间的推移而增加。 The geopolitical realignment this will help engender may be even more profound. The United States has leverage vis-à-vis Canada and Mexico because we are their main trade partner. But China is the largest trading partner for a majority of countries in the world. Give these countries a choice between economic relations with the United States and with China, they would probably choose the latter in a heartbeat. And where economic relations go, political relations will follow. This week’s tariffs are another step toward hurting the U.S. economy and creating a geopolitical system that increasingly has China at its center. 由此将助推的地缘政治重新调整可能产生的影响就更为深远了。美国对加拿大和墨西哥具有影响力，是因为我们是他们的主要贸易伙伴。但中国是世界上大多数国家的最大贸易伙伴。如果让这些国家在与美国的经济关系和与中国的经济关系之间做出选择，它们可能会毫不犹豫地选择后者。经济关系走到哪里，政治关系就会走到哪里。本周的关税是伤害美国经济和创建一个日益以中国为中心的地缘政治体系的又一步。 Jason Furman是观点文章撰稿人，他是哈佛大学经济政策实践教授，曾于2013年至2017年担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席。 图片来源：ZargonDesign 和 Arthur Morris/Getty Images。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
TYLER PAGER2025年4月1日特朗普总统反复提及竞选第三任期的想法，并向NBC新闻表示他“不是开玩笑的”。 Kenny Holston/The New York Times President Trump cannot run for a third term as president, barring changes to the Constitution. But that has not stopped him from openly flirting with the idea. 除非对宪法进行修改，否则特朗普总统不能竞选第三个总统任期。但这并没有阻止他公然对这一想法表现出兴趣。 He has floated it publicly and privately, and on Sunday, he said he was “not joking” about it. In an interview with NBC News, he insisted there were “methods” to circumvent the two-term limit set out by the 22nd Amendment. 他在公开和私下场合都提出来过相关想法，而且在周日，他表示自己“不是开玩笑的”。在接受NBC新闻采访时，他坚称有“办法”绕过美国宪法第二十二条修正案所规定的两届任期限制。 Mr. Trump has not specified those methods, and there are no apparent signs that he is actually laying groundwork for a third term. But his musings — whether based in reality or not — serve a distinct political purpose. 特朗普没有具体说明是什么办法，而且也没有明显迹象表明他确实正在为第三个任期做准备工作。但他的这些想法——无论是否基于现实——都有着明确的政治目的。 They redirect attention from other controversies, such as the leaked Signal message chain in which his top advisers inadvertently included a journalist in a group-chat discussion of an upcoming military operation. And they freeze the field of potential successors who may steal the spotlight from a lame duck — a status dreaded by American presidents, who see their relevance diminish steadily over time. 这些想法将人们的注意力从其他争议上转移开，比如泄露的Signal聊天记录。在一场关于即将开展的军事行动的群聊讨论中，他的高级顾问们不小心把一名记者拉进了群里。同时这也能终结有关潜在继任者的讨论，毕竟这样的人选会抢走一个“跛脚鸭”总统的风头。“跛脚鸭”是美国总统深恶痛绝的状态，在他们看来，那意味着他们将逐渐变得无关紧要。 “It reads like somebody who doesn’t want to be treated like a lame duck and is throwing it out there right now,” said Derek T. Muller, a law professor at the University of Notre Dame and a scholar in election law. “It’s really hard to be a lame duck president or to be treated that way, and people are talking to you like your term’s already over.” “这看起来像是一个不想被当作‘跛脚鸭’总统对待的人现在抛出了这个话题，”圣母大学法学教授、选举法学者德里克·米勒说，“成为‘跛脚鸭’或者被当作‘跛脚鸭’是很难受的，人们和你说话时就好像你的任期已经结束了一样。” In January, Representative Andy Ogles of Tennessee, a Republican, proposed a long shot amendment to the Constitution to make Mr. Trump eligible for a third term. 今年1月，田纳西州的共和党众议员安迪·奥格尔斯提出了一项几乎不可能通过的宪法修正案，以使特朗普有资格竞选第三个任期。 But on Capitol Hill on Monday, top Republicans rejected the idea of changing the Constitution and suggested the president was joking. Senator John Thune of South Dakota, the Senate majority leader, said Mr. Trump was “probably having some fun with it,” and Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the House majority leader, said the comments were aimed to “get people talking.” White House officials suggested the same, noting Mr. Trump did not bring up the topic unprompted but only responded to questions asked by reporters. 但在周一的国会山，共和党高层人士否决了修改宪法的想法，并暗示总统是在开玩笑。南达科他州的参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩参议员表示，特朗普“可能只是拿这个逗个乐”，路易斯安那州的众议院多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯说，特朗普的那些言论目的是“制造话题”。白宫官员也表达了同样的看法，他们指出这个话题不是特朗普主动提出的，他只是在回答记者的提问。 “Look, you guys continue to ask the president this question about a third term, and then he answers honestly and candidly with a smile, and then everybody here melts down about his answer,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, told reporters Monday. “你看，你们这些人一直问总统关于第三个任期的问题，然后他带着微笑坦诚地回答了，结果这里的每个人都对他的回答做出过度反应，”白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·利维特周一对记者说。 She added: “It’s not really something we’re thinking about. He has four years. There’s a lot of work to do. We’ve done a lot, nearly for 100 days. And the American people love what this president is doing.” 她还说：“这算不上我们正在考虑的事情。他有四年任期要履行。有很多工作要做。我们已经做了很多事情，到现在差不多快100天了。而且美国人民喜欢这位总统正在做的事情。” Dave Carney, a Republican strategist who ran Preserve America, a pro-Trump super PAC, said Mr. Trump’s strategy may be to keep people guessing. 共和党策略师戴夫·卡尼曾管理支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会“保护美国”，他说特朗普的策略可能是要显得捉摸不定。 “It keeps people uncomfortable,” he said. “The people on the left are going to go crazy, and it’s going to put other people on notice that Trump’s going to be around longer than we think. Trump excels by keeping people off kilter and uncomfortable.” “这会让人们感到不安，”他说，“左翼人士会抓狂，而且这会让其他人注意到，特朗普会比我们想象的在政治舞台上停留更长时间。特朗普擅长让人们失去平衡，感到不安。” “He hasn’t broken a law. He hasn’t said he’s going to,” Mr. Carney added. “He said there are a lot of different options out there. His ability to infuriate his opponents is one of his greatest strengths while the Democrats are in disarray.” “他没有违法。他也没说过他会违法，”卡尼补充道，“他说有很多不同的选择。他激怒对手的能力是他最大的优势之一，而民主党现在乱作一团。” Mr. Trump has made clear that he has no interest in sharing the spotlight. Just a few months into his second term, he has declared a broad mandate to reshape the federal government and demonstrated an expansive view of executive power. And he has chafed against any efforts to rein him in. 特朗普已经明确表示，他不想与他人分享风头。在他的第二个任期开始仅仅几个月后，他就宣布了一项全面的计划，要重塑联邦政府，并对行政权表现出了一种开放性的态度。而且他对任何试图约束他的努力都感到恼火。 Republicans on Capitol Hill have fallen in line with his agenda, ceding much of their power to him. And when federal judges have halted his administration, Mr. Trump has lashed out, suggesting they should be impeached. Democrats worry Mr. Trump’s comments about judges and a third term are hurtling the country toward a constitutional crisis. 国会山的共和党人已经唯他马首是瞻，将他们的很大一部分权力让渡给了他。当联邦法官叫停他的政府的一些行动时，特朗普会发出猛烈抨击，表示应该弹劾这些法官。民主党人担心特朗普关于法官和第三任期的言论正使国家朝着一场宪法危机急速发展。 “I’m very concerned that he is going to seek to exert maximum power until he’s checked,” Representative Ro Khanna of California, a Democrat, said in an interview Monday. “我非常担心，只要不加以制约，他会试图最大限度地行使权力，”加利福尼亚州的民主党众议员卢·康纳在周一的一次采访中说。 For now, Mr. Trump maintains that he is focused on his second term. 目前，特朗普坚称他专注于自己的第二个任期。 “I don’t even want to talk about it,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday night. “I’m just telling you I have had more people saying, ‘Please run again.’ We have a long way to go before we even think about that but I’ve had a lot of people.” “我甚至都不想谈论这个，”周日晚上，他在“空军一号”上对记者说，“我只是告诉你们，有很多人跟我说，‘请再竞选一次吧。’在我们考虑这件事之前还有很长的路要走，但确实有很多人这么跟我说。” On Monday, a Fox News reporter, seemingly trying to bait Mr. Trump, asked him a hypothetical question: If he were allowed to run for a third term, would the Democrats try to run former President Barack Obama against him? (Mr. Obama already served two terms and has shown zero interest in running for elected office again.) 周一，一名福克斯新闻的记者似乎想给特朗普下套，向他提出了一个假设性的问题：如果允许他竞选第三个任期，民主党人会不会让前总统奥巴马与他竞争呢？（奥巴马已经担任过两届总统，而且对再次竞选公职毫无兴趣。） “I would love that,” Mr. Trump said. “That would be a good one.” “我很乐意看到那种情况，”特朗普说，“会很有意思。” Erica L. Green对本文有报道贡献。 Tyler Pager是时报白宫记者，报道特朗普总统及其政府。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：经雷 点击查看本文英文版。
DANIELLE KAYE, JOE RENNISON2025年4月1日 Karl Russell The S&P 500 ended March with its steepest monthly decline in more than two years, driven by uncertainty about the scope of President Trump’s tariffs, which investors fear could accelerate inflation, slow consumer spending and stall the U.S. economy. 标准普尔500指数3月收盘时创下两年多来最大单月跌幅，这是由特朗普总统关税范围的不确定性所导致，投资者担心这可能会加速通货膨胀，减缓消费者支出，并使美国经济陷入停滞。 After a choppy session on Monday in which the index ended higher for the day, the S&P 500 registered a 5.8 percent decline in March, its worst month since December 2022, when the Federal Reserve embarked upon a series of sharp interest rate increases as it sought to tame inflation. The decline in March caps off the S&P 500’s worst quarter at the start of a president’s term since President Barack Obama took over in 2009 during the financial crisis. 在震荡的周一交易日中，标准普尔500指数全天收高，3月份该指数下跌5.8%，是自2022年12月以来最糟糕的一个月，当时美联储开始一系列大幅加息，以抑制通货膨胀。标普500指数3月的下跌为自2009年奥巴马在金融危机期间上任以来，新总统开局表现最差的一个季度画上了句号。 The benchmark is now down 8.7 percent from its mid-February peak, a downturn that is near a 10 percent “correction,” denting the values of portfolios and retirement funds across both Wall Street and Main Street. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index, which has already slipped into a correction, ended the month down 8.2 percent. 该指数目前较2月中旬的峰值下跌8.7%，接近10%的“修正”，令华尔街和普通民众的投资组合以及退休基金的价值缩水。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数本月收跌8.2%，该指数已进入修正。 Since taking office a little over two months ago, Mr. Trump has kept investors and companies guessing with a haphazard rollout of what he calls an “America First” trade policy. He has threatened, imposed and in some cases then paused the start of new tariffs on goods coming into the United States. 自两个多月前上任以来，特朗普以随意的方式推行他所谓的“美国优先”贸易政策，让投资者和企业琢磨不透。他对进口到美国的商品时而威胁征收关税，时而实施关税措施，有时又暂停新关税的实施。 Whiplash over trade policy has fueled market volatility in the first few months of the year. Mr. Trump’s next round of tariffs, set to be unveiled on Wednesday, could bring additional market swings in the coming days. 今年头几个月，围绕贸易政策的反覆无常加剧了市场波动。特朗普定于周三公布的下一轮关税可能会在未来几天带来更多的市场波动。 “That’s what the market is hoping for after April 2: Give us what you’re going to give us, tell us what’s going to happen and we will then try to figure it out,” said Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. “But until then, it’s very difficult to invest.” “这就是4月2日之后市场所希望看到的：告诉我们你会给我们什么，让我们知道会发生什么，然后我们会想办法应对，”盈透证券首席策略师史蒂夫·索斯尼克说。“但在此之前，很难进行投资。” Stocks had rallied in the wake of Mr. Trump’s election, buoyed by Wall Street’s hopes for deregulation and tax cuts. But the post-election rally lost steam as tariffs began to take center stage in Mr. Trump’s early economic policy priorities. 在特朗普当选后，华尔街曾对放松管制和减税抱有希望，股市因此大涨。但随着关税开始成为特朗普早期经济政策优先事项的中心，大选后的涨势失去了动力。 More recently, Mr. Trump has acknowledged but dismissed the potential financial hit to consumers and businesses from sweeping tariffs, eroding hopes that shaky markets would cause him to reconsider his actions. On Saturday, Mr. Trump said he “couldn’t care less” about the prospect of higher car prices in an interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press.” 最近，特朗普承认全面征收关税对消费者和企业可能造成财务冲击，但对此却不以为意，这削弱了人们对动荡的市场会促使总统重新考虑其行动的希望。周六，特朗普在接受NBC的“与媒体见面”节目采访时表示，他“一点也不在乎”汽车价格上涨的可能性。 Investor optimism about the U.S. markets peaked at the start of the year, as investors anticipated more business-friendly policies, said Lauren Goodwin, an economist at New York Life Investments. But those hopes are being questioned, she said, pointing to high levels of uncertainty — not just on tariffs but also related to Mr. Trump’s immigration policies, which are clouding the outlook for the labor market. 纽约人寿投资公司的经济学家劳伦·古德温说，投资者对美国市场的乐观情绪在年初达到顶峰，因为他们预计会出台更多有利于企业发展的政策。但她说，这些希望正在受到质疑，她指出，存在高度的不确定性——不仅在关税方面，还与特朗普的移民政策有关，后者给劳动力市场的前景蒙上了阴影。 “From an economy that was at risk of overheating from all the good things happening, that’s an almost 180 degree shift in one quarter,” Ms. Goodwin said. 古德温说：“一个由于各种利好因素面临过热风险的经济，在一个季度内发生了几乎180度的转变。” Analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their forecast for the S&P 500, citing “higher tariffs, weaker economic growth and greater inflation than we previously assumed” in a note on Sunday. They expect the index to fall another 5 percent in the next three months. The downturn could be deeper if the U.S. economy slipped into recession, which the analysts give a roughly one-in-three probability. 高盛分析师在周日的报告中下调了对标普500指数的预期，理由是“关税上调、经济增长放缓和通胀高于我们此前的预期”。他们预计，该指数在未来三个月内将再下跌5%。如果美国经济陷入衰退，经济下滑可能会更加严重。分析师认为，这种情况的概率约为三分之一。 Investor anxiety has been reflected in other markets. The price of gold hit another record high, trading at around $3,150 per ounce on Monday. Gold is often sought by investors during times of turmoil. Traders also parked money in relatively safe U.S. government bonds, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note below 4.2 percent, a sign of investors’ concerns about economic growth. 投资者的焦虑情绪也反映在其他市场上。周一，黄金价格再创新高，达到每盎司3150美元左右。在市场动荡时期，投资者往往会追捧黄金。交易商还将资金投入相对安全的美国国债，推动10年期国债收益率跌破4.2%，这显示投资者对经济成长的担忧。 Expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have nudged higher, with investors now betting on three cuts this year, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed has opted to pause until it gets more clarity about what Mr. Trump will enforce and how consumers and businesses will respond. Most Fed officials are bracing for higher inflation and lower growth this year. 根据CME FedWatch的数据，对美联储降息的预期有所上升，投资者目前押注美联储今年将进行三次降息。美联储已选择暂停降息，直到更清楚地了解特朗普将执行什么措施，以及消费者和企业将做出怎样的反应。大多数美联储官员都在为今年的通胀率上升和经济增长下降做准备。 On Monday, stocks in Japan and Taiwan fell more than 4 percent, while share prices in South Korea were down 3 percent. The Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell into a correction, down 12 percent from its high in late December. Technology companies were hit hard: The chipmakers Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, SK Hynix, Samsung and Tokyo Electron recorded declines. 周一，日本和台湾股市下跌超过4%，韩国股市下跌3%。日本日经225指数从去年12月底的高点下跌了12%，进入修正。科技公司受到重创：芯片制造商台积电、SK海力士、三星和东京威力科创均录得下跌。 Losses in China were more muted. Hong Kong stocks dropped more than 1 percent, and those in mainland China were about 0.5 percent lower. Mainland stocks got some support from a report signaling that China’s export-led industrial sector continues to expand despite Mr. Trump’s initial tariffs. 中国股市的跌幅则较为温和。香港股市下跌超过1%，中国大陆股市下跌约0.5%。一份报告显示，尽管特朗普实施了初步的关税措施，但中国出口导向型工业部门仍在继续扩张，这给大陆股市带来了一些支撑。 Markets in Europe also slumped, with the Stoxx 600 index falling 1.5 percent. German automakers, which are particularly exposed to U.S. tariffs, extended recent losses: Volkswagen, Europe’s largest carmaker, dropped more than 3 percent in Frankfurt. 欧洲股市也出现下跌，斯托克600指数下跌1.5%。特别容易受到美国关税影响的德国汽车制造商近期的损失扩大：欧洲最大的汽车制造商大众汽车在法兰克福的股价下跌逾3%。 At one point on Monday, the S&P 500 had fallen more than 1 percent, but it ended the day up slightly. 周一，标普500指数一度下跌超过1%，但收盘时小幅上涨。 Mr. Trump has imposed tariffs to make imports more expensive in industries like automobiles, arguing that the trade barriers will spur investment and innovation in the United States. He has also used tariffs, and their threat, to try to extract geopolitical concessions from countries. He has further unnerved investors by saying he does not care about the fallout of his actions on markets or American consumers, who will have to pay more for many goods if import prices rise. 特朗普征收关税，使汽车等行业的进口产品更加昂贵，他认为贸易壁垒将刺激美国的投资和创新。他还利用关税及其威胁，试图迫使各国在地缘政治上做出让步。他说，他不关心他的行动对市场或美国消费者的影响，如果进口价格上涨，美国消费者将不得不为许多商品支付更高的价格，这进一步令投资者感到不安。 Over the weekend, Mr. Trump ramped up the pressure, threatening so-called secondary sanctions on Russia if it does not engage in talks to bring about a cessation of fighting in Ukraine. The tactic echoes similar sanctions concerning Venezuela. He said last week that any country buying Venezuelan oil could face another 25 percent tariff on its exports to the United States. 周末期间，特朗普加大了施压力度，威胁称，如果俄罗斯不参与旨在实现乌克兰停火的谈判，将对俄罗斯实施所谓的二级制裁。这一策略与针对委内瑞拉的类似制裁相呼应。他上周表示，任何购买委内瑞拉石油的国家出口到美国的产品都可能面临另外25%的关税。 The threats over the weekend came on top of tariffs of 25 percent on imported cars and some car parts set to be put in place this week, barring any last-minute reprieve. That’s in addition to previously delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, as well as the potential for further retaliatory tariffs on other countries. 周末的威胁是在对进口汽车和一些汽车零部件征收25%关税基础上发出的，除非在最后一刻得到缓解，这一25%关税将于本周生效。除此之外，美国还将对墨西哥和加拿大征收先前推迟的关税，并可能对其他国家征收进一步的报复性关税。 Adding to investors’ angst is the scheduled release on Friday of the monthly report on the health of the U.S. jobs market. It could provide another reading of how the Trump administration’s policy pursuits are weighing on the economy. 美国就业市场健康状况月度报告定于周五发布，这让投资者更加焦虑。该报告将进一步解读特朗普政府的政策追求对经济的影响。 “I hear it from nearly every client, nearly every leader — nearly every person — I talk to: They’re more anxious about the economy than any time in recent memory,” Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of the asset management giant BlackRock, wrote on Monday in his annual letter to investors. “I understand why. But we have lived through moments like this before. And somehow, in the long run, we figure things out.” “我几乎从每一位客户、几乎每一位领导人——几乎每一个与我交谈过的人那里听到的都是：他们对经济的担忧达到了近年来的最高水平，”资产管理巨头贝莱德的首席执行官劳伦斯·芬克在周一致投资者的年度信件中写道。“我明白为什么。但我们以前也经历过这样的时刻。不管怎样，从长远来看，我们会解决问题的。” Keith Bradsher和Jason Karaian对本文有报道贡献。 Danielle Kaye是一名商业记者，也是2024年David Carr奖学金项目成员，这是一个为处在职业生涯早期的记者而设立的项目。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Joe Rennison撰写有关金融市场的文章，内容包括记录股市的变幻莫测、解释华尔街内部人士常常难以理解的交易决策等。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
DAMIEN CAVE2025年4月1日美国总统特朗普和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯上周在椭圆形办公室宣布了空军研发新型F-47战斗机的计划。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times The F-35, a fifth-generation fighter, was developed in partnership with eight countries, making it a model of international cooperation. When President Donald Trump introduced its successor, the F-47, he praised its strengths — and said the version sold to allies would be deliberately downgraded. 第五代战斗机F-35由美国与八个国家合作研制，堪称国际合作的典范。美国总统特朗普宣布研发下一代战斗机F-47的计划时，对新战机的性能赞不绝口，同时还表示，卖给盟友的版本将是特意降级的机型。 That made sense, Trump said last week, “because someday, maybe they’re not our allies.” 特朗普上周说，那样做是有道理的，“因为也许他们有一天不再是我们的盟友。” For many countries wedded to the United States, his remark confirmed a related conclusion: that America can no longer be trusted. Even nations not yet directly affected can see where things are heading, as Trump threatens allies’ economies, their defense partnerships and even their sovereignty. 对许多与美国结盟的国家来说，他的说法证明了一个相关结论：美国不再值得信任。随着特朗普对盟友的经济、与它们的防务伙伴关系，甚至它们的国家主权发出威胁，就连尚未受到直接影响的国家也已看到了事态发展的走向。 For now, they are negotiating to minimize the pain from blow after blow, including a broad round of tariffs expected in April. But at the same time, they are pulling back. Preparing for intimidation to be a lasting feature of U.S. relations, they are trying to go their own way. 就目前而言，这些国家正在通过谈判，将接二连三带来的冲击造成的伤害降至最低，其中包括预计将在4月生效的涉及范围广泛的新关税。与此同时，它们也在减少与美国的合作。鉴于恐吓将成为美国对外关系的持久特点，它们要试图走自己的路。 A few examples: 举几个例子： — Canada made a $4.2 billion deal with Australia in March to develop cutting-edge radar and announced that it was in talks to take part in the European Union’s military buildup. ——加拿大已在今年3月与澳大利亚达成一项价值42亿美元的协议，研发尖端雷达技术，并宣布正在就参与欧盟军事建设进行谈判。 — Portugal and other NATO nations are reconsidering plans to buy F-35s, fearing U.S. control over parts and software. ——葡萄牙和其他北约国家出于对美国控制零部件和软件的担忧，正在重新考虑购买F-35的计划。 — Negotiations over a free trade and technology deal between the EU and India have suddenly accelerated after years of delays. ——欧盟与印度之间的自由贸易和技术协议谈判，经过多年拖延后突然加快了步伐。 — Brazil is not only increasing trade with China, it’s doing it in China’s currency, sidelining the dollar. ——巴西不仅在增加与中国的贸易往来，而且正在甩开美元，用人民币进行结算。 — In several countries, including Poland, South Korea and Australia, discussions about whether to build or secure access to nuclear weapons are now commonplace. ——包括波兰、韩国、澳大利亚在内的多个国家，关于是否要制造或确保获得核武器的讨论现已屡见不鲜。 Some degree of distancing from the United States had already been in motion as other countries became wealthier, more capable and less convinced that U.S. centrality would be permanent. But the past few months of Trump 2.0 have supercharged the process. 随着其他国家变得更加富裕、更有能力，加上越来越不相信美国会永远占据世界中心地位，它们已开始与美国保持距离。但在特朗普第二次担任总统的这几个月极大加速了这一进程。 停靠在韩国海军基地的美国核动力潜艇“亚历山德里亚”号，摄于今年2月。 History and psychology help explain why. Few forces have such a powerful, long-lasting impact on geopolitics as distrust, according to social scientists who study international relations. It has repeatedly poisoned negotiations in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It kept Cold War tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union burning for decades. 历史和心理学对解释其中的原因有所帮助。据研究国际关系的社会科学家称，几乎没有什么比不信任更能对地缘政治产生如此强烈且持久的影响了。不信任已多次导致有关巴以冲突的谈判破裂，让美苏之间的冷战紧张局面持续了几十年。 So-called realists — who see international relations as an amoral contest between self-interested states — argue that trust should always be assessed with skepticism, because believing in good intentions is risky. 所谓的现实主义者们把国际关系视为自私自利的国家之间无关道德标准的竞争，他们提出，始终应该对信任持怀疑态度，因为相信他国怀有善意是存在风险的。 But Trump has sparked more than cautious suspicion. His own distrust of allies, evident in his zero-sum belief that gains for others are losses for America, has been reciprocated. What it has created is familiar — a distrust spiral. If you think the other person (or country) is not trustworthy, you’re more likely to break rules and contracts without shame, studies show, reinforcing a partner’s own distrust, leading to more aggression or reduced interaction. 但特朗普引发的不仅仅是谨慎的怀疑。他对盟友们的不信任已得到了回应，这种不信任体现在特朗普的零和博弈信念中，他认为别的国家得到的好处是美国的损失。这已经产生了我们熟悉的结果——不信任的螺旋式下降。研究表明，如果你认为对方（或他国）不值得信任，你就更有可能不知羞耻地违反规则和契约，这会进一步加深合作伙伴对你的不信任，导致更多的好斗情绪或减少双方的互动。 “Trust is fragile,” Paul Slovic, a psychologist at the University of Oregon, wrote in a seminal 1993 study on risk, trust and democracy. “It is typically created rather slowly, but it can be destroyed in an instant — by a single mishap or mistake.” “信任是脆弱的，”俄勒冈大学的心理学家保罗·斯洛维奇在1993年发表的一篇关于风险、信任和民主的开创性论文中写道。“信任的形成一般相当缓慢，但信任可能会因为一个小小的意外或错误在一瞬间被摧毁。” In Trump’s case, allies point to a sustained assault. 盟友们指出，特朗普摧毁信任用的是持续的打击。 His tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which ignored the North American free trade deal that he signed during his first term, stunned the United States’ neighbors. 他对从墨西哥和加拿大进口的产品征收关税，无视自己上次担任总统期间签署的北美自由贸易协定，让美国的这两个邻国震惊。 特朗普认为别国得到的好处是美国的损失，他对盟友的这种不信任正在得到回应。 His threats to make Canada a U.S. state and send the U.S. military into Mexico to go after drug cartels were brash intrusions on sovereignty, not unlike his demands for Greenland and the Panama Canal. His blaming of Ukraine for the war that Russia started further alienated allies, forcing them to ask: Is the United States a defender of dictators or democracy? 特朗普威胁要把加拿大变成美国的一个州，扬言派美军到墨西哥追捕贩毒集团，这些盛气凌人侵犯主权的言行与他对格陵兰和巴拿马运河的要求类似。他将俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的战争归咎于乌克兰，这就进一步疏远了盟友，让它们不禁发问：美国是要捍卫独裁者还是民主国家？ Relatively quickly, they have determined that even if Trump’s boldest proposals — such as turning the Gaza Strip into a Mideast Riviera — are fantasies, the trend lines point in the same direction: toward a world order less like the Olympics and more like Ultimate Fighting. 盟友们比较快地形成了看法，就算特朗普最大胆的提议——比如把加沙地带变成中东的里维埃拉——只是幻想，但大趋势的走向却是一致的：未来的世界秩序不再像是奥运会那样，而更像是终极格斗。 Perhaps no country is more shocked than Canada. It shares the world’s largest undefended border with the United States, despite their wide disparity in military strength. Why? Because Canadians trusted America. Now, in large part, they do not. 也许没有哪个国家比加拿大更为震惊了。尽管两国军事力量悬殊，但加拿大与美国保持着世界上最长的不设防边界。为什么？因为加拿大信任美国。现在，他们已在很大程度上不再信任了。 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Thursday said his country’s traditional relationship with the United States was “over.” 加拿大总理马克·卡尼周四表示，加拿大与美国的传统关系“结束了”。 “Trump has violated the deep assumption in Canadian foreign policy that the U.S. is an inherently trustworthy nation,” said Brian Rathbun, a global affairs professor at the University of Toronto. “That is very threatening to basic Canadian interests in trade and security, leading it to cast around for alternatives.” “特朗普已违背了加拿大外交政策中根深蒂固的假设，即美国从本质上来说是一个值得信赖的国家，”多伦多大学研究全球事务的教授布莱恩·拉斯本说。“这对加拿大的贸易和安全根本利益构成了极大威胁，迫使加拿大不得去其他地方寻找替代。” Economic patriotism is somewhat new for Canada, but it has given rise to a Buy Canadian movement that urges consumers to shun American products and stocks. Canadians are also canceling U.S. holidays in large numbers. 虽然经济爱国主义在加拿大仍是较新的东西，但已引发了“购买加拿大货”的运动，这场运动呼吁消费者不要购买美国产品和美国公司的股票。很多加拿大人也取消了赴美度假的计划。 加拿大温哥华一家酒类商店的经理正在将美国威士忌从货架上撤下。 More significant in the longer term, Trump’s threats have forged a surprising consensus around a policy that had been contentious or ignored: that Canada should be building pipelines, ports and other infrastructure east to west, not north to south, to reduce its reliance on the United States and push its resources outward to Asia and Europe. 从长远来看更重要的是，特朗普的威胁已让人们围绕着一项政策达成了令人惊讶的共识，该政策在加拿大曾颇具争议或遭到忽视，那就是，加拿大应该建设东西方向的油气管线、通往东西方的港口和其他基础设施，而不只是建设从北向南的设施，以减少对美国的依赖，把本国的资源推向亚洲和欧洲市场。 Europe is further ahead in this process. After the U.S. election, the EU finalized a trade deal with South American countries to create one of the world’s largest trade zones, and it has worked toward closer trade ties with India, South Africa, South Korea and Mexico. 欧洲已在这个进程上走得更远。美国大选后，欧盟已与南美国家达成贸易协议，建立了全球最大的贸易区之一。而且，欧盟已努力与印度、南非、韩国、墨西哥等国建立更紧密的贸易关系。 Japan, America’s largest ally in Asia, has also been prioritizing new markets in the global south, where fast-growing economies such as Vietnam’s offer new customers. 美国在亚洲的最大盟友日本也一直在优先考虑“全球南方”的新市场，这些快速增长的经济体（比如越南）提供了新客户群体。 “There has been the emerging perception in Japan that we definitely have to change the portfolio of our investments,” said Ken Jimbo, a professor of international politics and security at Keio University in Tokyo. For the current administration and those that follow, he added, “we have to adjust our expectations of the American alliance.” 庆应义塾大学研究国际政治与安全的教授神保谦表示，“日本国内逐渐形成的一种观点是，我们必须改变投资组合。”他还说，对这届政府以及今后的政府来说，“我们不得不调整对美日同盟的预期。” On the defense front, what some call “de-Americanization” is more challenging. This is especially true in Asia, where there is no NATO equivalent, and reliance on U.S. support has somewhat stunted the militaries of countries that the United States has promised to defend (Japan, South Korea and the Philippines). 就国防而言，被一些人称为“去美国化”的做法更具挑战性。在亚洲尤其如此，因为亚洲没有像北约那样的组织，对美国支持的依赖在一定程度上阻碍了美国承诺保卫的国家（日本、韩国、菲律宾等国）的军事发展。 菲律宾本月举行军事演习。该国已扩大了与日本和新西兰的防务关系。 On Friday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was in Manila, Philippines, promising to “truly prioritize and shift to this region.” But many of the United States’ partners are now working together without the United States, signing reciprocal access agreements for one another’s troops and building new coalitions to deter China as much as they can. 上周五，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在菲律宾马尼拉承诺“真正优先考虑并转向亚太地区”。但美国的许多合作伙伴现在正在没有美国的情况下进行合作，签署相互派遣军队的协议，建立新的联盟，以尽可能地遏制中国。 Europe, too, is years away from being able to fully defend itself without the help of U.S. weaponry and technology. Yet, in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs, threats and general disdain — as in the leaked Signal chat in which Hegseth called Europe “pathetic” — the EU recently announced plans to ramp up military spending. That includes a 150 billion euro (about $162 billion) loan program to finance defense investment. 欧洲在没有美国武器和技术帮助的情况下充分自卫也还需要数年时间。但是，为了应对特朗普政府的关税、威胁和总体上的轻蔑态度（比如在泄露的Signal群聊中，海格塞斯用“很可悲”来描述欧洲），欧盟最近宣布了增加军费开支的计划。其中包括一项用于资助国防投资的1500亿欧元（约合1620亿美元）贷款计划。 The 27-nation EU is also increasingly collaborating with two nonmembers — Britain and Norway — on defending Ukraine and on other strategic defense priorities. 有27个成员国的欧盟也在越来越多地与两个非成员国——英国和挪威——就保卫乌克兰和其他战略防务优先事项上进行合作。 For some countries, none of this is quite enough. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told parliament in early March that Poland would explore gaining access to nuclear weapons, fearing that Trump could not be trusted to defend a fellow NATO nation fully. 对一些国家来说，所有这些都还不够。波兰总理唐纳德·图斯克今年3月初对议会说，由于担心在捍卫北约同盟国的问题上不再能信任特朗普，波兰将探索获得核武器的可能性。 “This is a race for security,” Tusk said. “这是一场安全竞赛，”图斯克说。 波兰总理唐纳德·塔斯克说，波兰将探索获得核武器的可能性。 In February, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul told the National Assembly that building nuclear weapons was “not on the table, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is off the table either.” By some estimates, both South Korea and Japan have the technical know-how to develop nuclear weapons in less than two months. 韩国外长赵兑烈今年2月对国会表示，制造核武器“虽然还没有上议事日程，但也不一定意味着不在考虑范围内”。据估计，韩国和日本都拥具备在不到两个月的时间里研发出核武器的技术能力。 Bilihari Kausikan, a former Singaporean diplomat, said that a little mistrust can lead to healthy caution, noting that Asia has been skeptical of the United States since the Vietnam War. He said the end result of the Trump era could be “a more diversified world, with more maneuvering space” and a less-dominant United States. 新加坡的前外交官比利哈里·考西坎称，少量的不信任能导致健康的谨慎，并指出自越南战争以来，亚洲一直对美国持怀疑态度。他说，特朗普时代的最终结果可能是“一个更加多元的、有更多灵活空间的世界”，美国将不再占据主导地位。 But for now, distrust is spreading. Experts said it would take years and a slew of costly trust-building efforts to bring the United States together with allies, new or old, for anything long term. 但就目前而言，不信任的情绪正在蔓延。专家们说，美国要想与新老盟友建立或恢复长期的信任关系需要花费数年时间和大量代价高昂的努力。 “Trust is difficult to create and easy to lose,” said Deborah Welch Larson, a political scientist at UCLA who wrote a book about mistrust’s Cold War role. “Mistrust of the United States’ intentions and motives is growing day by day.” “信任很难建立，但很容易丧失，”加州大学洛杉矶分校的政治学家黛博拉·韦尔奇·拉尔森说，她写过一本关于不信任在冷战中作用的书。“对美国意图和动机的不信任正在与日俱增。” Matina Stevis-Gridneff自多伦多、Jeanna Smialek自布鲁塞尔、Choe Sang-Hun自首尔、Martin Fackler自东京对本文有报道贡献。 Damien Cave领导时报在越南胡志明市的新分社，报道亚洲及全球世界范围内的权力转移。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。
DAMIEN CAVE, MUKTITA SUHARTONO, RICHARD C. PADDOCK2025年3月31日周日，重型机械正在曼谷拆除一座起重机的残骸，这座正在施工的建筑于地震时倒塌。 Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Getty Images When the earth started rocking beneath her home in Bangkok on Friday, Kanittha Thepasak thought she was simply dizzy. Then she heard an odd creaking sound, saw a lamp moving and threw aside a curtain to find cars swaying like boats at sea. 周五，当她位于曼谷的家开始摇晃时，卡妮塔·贴帕沙以为自己只是头晕。然后，她听到了奇怪的嘎吱声，看到一盏灯在晃动，掀开窗帘，她看见楼下的汽车像海上的船一样摇晃。 The streets were filled with people who had rushed outside, staring up at the apartment buildings, glass office towers and unfinished construction all around them. Now Ms. Kanittha can barely imagine returning to the office where she spends most of her days. It’s on the 29th floor. 街头挤满了匆忙跑到外面的人，他们抬头盯着周围的公寓楼、玻璃幕墙的写字楼以及尚未完工的建筑工地。现在，卡尼塔几乎无法想象再回到往日度过大部分时光的办公室了。那间办公室在29楼。 “I’m freaked out, I’m worried,” she said. “Thai people have no basic understanding of earthquakes because we never really experience them.” “我吓坏了，很担心，”她说，“泰国人对地震基本没有什么了解，因为我们从来没有真正经历过地震。” The quake that devastated Myanmar on Friday did far less damage in neighboring Thailand, but the sheer force of it — with a magnitude of 7.7 — emptied Bangkok, a city of towers, into the streets. On Sunday, two days later, as the Thai government and engineers inspected hundreds of damaged structures to ensure they could be occupied, it was still darkening thoughts of routines that increasingly include living and working dozens of stories above ground. 周五重创缅甸的地震在邻国泰国造成的破坏要小得多，但在曼谷这座高楼林立的城市里，这场7.7级地震的巨大威力还是人们纷纷跑到街头。两天后的周日，泰国政府和工程师检查了数百栋受损建筑，以确保它们的安全，但人们仍然心有余悸，毕竟越来越多的人平日都是在几十层楼高的地方生活和工作。 The disaster’s most devastating scene in Thailand came from the complete collapse of a Bangkok building that had been under construction. At least 11 workers were reported dead as of Sunday, and with about 75 still unaccounted for, rescue crews continued to pull carefully at the rubble with a dozen excavators and eight dogs trained to find the dead and the living. 在泰国，这场灾难最惨烈的场景是曼谷一座在建大楼的完全坍塌。据报道，截至周日，至少有11名工人死亡，约75人下落不明，救援人员继续用十几台挖掘机和八只经过训练的搜救犬，小心翼翼地在废墟中寻找幸存者。 Andy Redmond, a member of the K9 team, said all the signals on Sunday pointed to cadavers, with a scent so overwhelming that the dogs struggled to locate individual remains. 搜救犬小组成员安迪·雷德蒙德说，周日根据嗅探到的所有迹象最终找到的都是尸体，气味浓烈得让搜救犬难以确定遗体的具体位置。 “It’s a learning curve,” he said, resting between search missions that had kept him at the site since Friday afternoon. “You can’t train for this.” “有一个学习的过程，”他说。自从周五下午以来，他一直在现场执行搜索任务，此时正稍作休息，“这种情况是无法事先训练的。” Video of the building’s dramatic fall seems etched in the minds of many, altering how residents see their city. For about a decade, Bangkok has been on the move, upward and outward, with a construction boom fueled by the expansion of its subway and Skytrain. 那座大楼轰然倒塌的视频似乎深深烙在了许多人的脑海中，改变了居民对这座城市的看法。大约十年来，曼谷不断发展，城市向上延伸、向外扩张，地铁和轻轨系统的扩大推动了建筑热潮。 But now, with at least a dozen cranes hovering over the skyline, gray skeletons of steel and concrete that once signaled economic growth have taken on an ominous quality. 但现在，天际线上的至少十几座塔吊盘、曾经标志着经济增长的灰色钢筋水泥骨架都有了一种不祥的意味。 Somreutal Nilbanjong, 34, found herself gazing at one such building downtown on Sunday afternoon as she walked home. Asked what she was thinking, she said, “It scares me just to look at it.” 周日下午走在回家的路上时，34岁的颂勒达·尼班宗发现自己正盯着市中心一栋这样的建筑。当被问到她在想什么时，她说：“光是看着它就让我害怕。” A small construction elevator climbed up the exterior through pink scaffolding. She scrolled through her phone until she found a photo of the mountain of rubble a few miles away — the collapsed building, Bangkok’s ground zero. 一部小型施工电梯沿着粉色的脚手架在建筑的外立面缓缓上升。她滑动手机，找到了一张几英里外那堆废墟的照片——那座倒塌的大楼，曼谷这场灾难的中心。 Goose bumps appeared on her arms, and she shuddered. 她手臂上起了鸡皮疙瘩，禁不住发抖。 “I’m afraid it’s going to happen again,” she said. “我担心这样的事情还会再次发生，”她说。 从空中俯瞰坍塌的大楼。 Government officials have tried to calm people’s nerves and keep people updated. 政府官员试图安抚人们的情绪，并及时向他们通报最新情况。 Immediately after Friday’s quake, Thailand’s prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, issued an urgent alert warning people to be wary of aftershocks for the next 24 hours. 周五地震发生后，泰国总理佩通坦·钦那瓦立即发布了紧急警报，提醒民众在接下来的24小时内警惕余震。 By that evening, she sought to reassure the public by announcing that the situation had stabilized and that residents could return to their homes. 到了那天晚上，她试图安抚公众，宣布情况已经稳定下来，民众可以返回家中。 On Saturday, she rode on Bangkok’s elevated railway, known as the Skytrain, to show that the trains were safe. The system had been shut down after the quake and inspected before most of the lines were reopened. 周六，她乘坐了曼谷的轻轨，以此表明该系统的安全性。地震后，轻轨系统一度关闭，大部分线路重新开放之前都进行了安全检查。 But even as the city has re-emerged toward normalcy — malls and markets full, trains rumbling over streets packed with motorbikes — many people are struggling to process something they had thought happened only in other places, like Japan or Taiwan. 但是，即使这座城市已经恢复正常——商场和市场里人满为患，轻轨在挤满摩托车的街头隆隆驶过——许多人仍在努力消化他们原本以为只会发生在其他地方（比如日本或台湾）的事情。 Ms. Kanittha said the experience was so confounding that her mind raced to memories of what she had seen in Japanese comics or manga depicting disasters. 卡妮塔说，这次经历让她感到十分困惑，她的脑海中不断浮现出在日本漫画中看到的描绘灾难的场景。 Many people said they weren’t necessarily scared, but that they were forced to ask unexpected questions: Behind glass facades, are buildings really secure? What if there are cracks that cannot be seen? What if there’s a giant aftershock? 许多人说，他们倒不一定是害怕，但他们不得不提出一些意想不到的问题：那些玻璃幕墙建筑真的安全吗？如果有看不见的裂缝怎么办？如果发生巨大的余震怎么办？ Jiraporn Jaichob, 41, a drink stall owner who was having lunch when the temblor struck, said she was making plans for future disasters. 地震发生时，41岁的饮料摊主吉拉蓬·猜乔布正在吃午饭，她说自己正在为未来可能发生的灾难做准备。 She was thinking of buying a transistor radio since she’d seen cellphone coverage go down. She also created a go bag for family with key documents and supplies. 她考虑买一台晶体管收音机，因为她已经看到手机信号曾中断。她还为家人准备了一个应急包，里面装着重要的文件和用品。 “With this earthquake we learned that we don’t know what might happen in a given day,” she said. “这次地震让我们明白，不知道哪天会发生什么，”她说。 “We can die anytime, anywhere, I know, it’s our fate,” she added. “But at least we take care of our lives where we can.” “我们随时随地都可能死去，我知道，这是我们的命运，”她补充道。“但至少，我们在力所能及的范围内，要保护好自己的生命。 曼谷一座连接两栋高层公寓楼的连廊受损。 Thailand upgraded its earthquake-resistant building code in 2007, and experts said the vast majority of the city’s buildings were clearly strong enough to withstand what should still be considered a rare seismic event. Still, some engineers called for greater scrutiny and a potential upgrade in standards and enforcement. 泰国在2007年升级了建筑的抗震标准，专家表示，曼谷的绝大多数建筑显然都足够坚固，可以抵御被视为罕见的地震事件。不过，一些工程师呼吁加强审查，并考虑提升标准以及监管的执行力度。 “Look at Japan — they keep developing their laws and design,” said Suchatvee Suwansawat, a professor of civil engineering at King Mongkut University and a former president of the Council of Engineers Thailand. “We should do that as well.” “看看日本——他们一直在法律和设计层面进行完善，”先皇理工大学的土木工程教授、泰国工程师协会前会长素差威·素万萨瓦说。“我们也应该这样做。” The collapse of the 30-story building, which had been going up beside a mall and popular weekend market, could be a turning point. It never should have buckled, said Dr. Suchatvee, suggesting that something went wrong in design, execution or oversight. 那栋30层大楼的倒塌可能会成为一个转折点。这座建在一个商场和颇受欢迎的周末市场旁的大楼本不应该坍塌，素万萨瓦说，这表明在设计、施工或监管方面出了问题。 Four years into construction, it was being built by a Chinese state-owned company, the China Railway 10th Engineering Group. The Thai government has promised to investigate and report early findings in a week. 这座大楼已经施工了四年，承建方是中国的一家国有企业——中铁十局集团。泰国政府已承诺进行调查，并在一周内公布初步调查结果。 But like other frightening building collapses — the condo tower in Surfside, Fla., which killed 98 people in 2021; or the downing of the World Trade Center from terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001 — the toll of destruction seems likely to linger. 但就像其他可怕的建筑倒塌事件一样——比如2021年造成98人死亡的佛罗里达州瑟夫赛德的公寓楼倒塌，以及2001年9月11日世贸中心因恐怖袭击倒塌——这种灾难的影响似乎会持续很久。 By dusk Sunday, shock, grief and dust mingled in the air at the collapse site, where a sizable crowd was gathered. Volunteer rescuers from the police and the military wearing jumpsuits cycled in and out of the area. At one point, a crane held two observers over the top of the rubble mountain as men in yellow hats stared up from below. 周日黄昏时分，坍塌现场聚集了很多人，空气中弥漫着震惊、悲痛和灰尘。身着连体服的警方和军队志愿救援人员进进出出。一台起重机一度将两名观察员吊到了瓦砾堆的顶部，下面戴着黄帽子的人们抬头看着他们。 在曼谷那栋建筑物的坍塌现场，民众正在等待搜救行动的消息。 At the perimeter, the father of a Pakistani worker told reporters people were praying at temples all over Thailand, and that he hoped at least half the workers would come out alive. 在现场外围，一名巴基斯坦工人的父亲告诉记者，全泰国的寺庙都有人祈祷，他希望至少有一半的工人能活着出来。 Aubonrat Setnawet was also still hoping for good news about her husband. He had been on the 23rd floor of the building when the earthquake hit; she had been there too, working, but on the ground floor, not far from where she sat on Sunday in a soft plastic chair near a hard metal fence. 奥汶叻·塞特那韦期待关于她丈夫的好消息。地震发生时，他在大楼的23层；她也在那里工作，不过是在一楼，距离周日当时她坐着的那张金属栅栏附近的塑料软椅不远。 “No updates,” she said quietly. All she could point to were more relatives beside her, as the noisy grind of diggers and dump trucks filled the air. “没有新消息，”她轻声说道。亲属纷纷赶来陪伴她，四周传来挖掘机和翻斗卡车的嘈杂轰鸣声，此外一切如旧。 At the market across the street, Jatupol Sawangphanich, 42, put tape over the slits of a metal grate protecting his tropical fish business. 在街对面的市场，42岁的差图蓬·沙旺帕尼奇给金属架子的缝隙贴上胶带，以保护他的热带鱼生意。 “Every time they lift the rubble, the dust flies in this direction,” he said. “每次他们掀开瓦砾，灰尘都会朝这个方向飞过来，”他说。 Beside him, the lights of a usually busy mall had gone dark. Its structural integrity still needed to be tested. 在他旁边，平日里热闹的商场灯光全无。商场建筑的结构稳固性仍有待勘查。 “This happened all over Bangkok,” he said. “I’d rather not go into tall buildings at all.” “曼谷到处都有这种状况，”他说。“我根本就不想再进高楼大厦了。” Damien Cave领导时报在越南胡志明市的新分社，报道亚洲及全球世界范围内的权力转移。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Muktita Suhartono报道泰国和印度尼西亚新闻。她常驻曼谷。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Richard C. Paddock曾作为驻外记者在五大洲的50 个国家进行报道，在莫斯科、雅加达、新加坡和曼谷工作过。他花了近12年的时间报道东南亚，自2016年以来一直为《纽约时报》撰写有关地区的稿件。 翻译：杜然 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年3月31日去年，中国最高领导人习近平。中共官员和政府顾问对特朗普在关税、乌克兰及其它问题上的快速行动感到惊讶。 Eric Lee/The New York Times In Washington, President Trump has said he is willing to meet with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader. 在华盛顿，特朗普总统表示，他愿意与中国最高领导人习近平会晤。 In Beijing, Chinese officials and experts agree that a meeting between the heads of state must precede any broad reset of relations with the United States amid Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach to trade and foreign policy. 在北京，中国官员和专家也认为，鉴于特朗普咄咄逼人的贸易和外交政策，两国元首举行会晤是与美国全面重启双边关系的前提。 But arranging a meeting is already proving slow and difficult. 但事实已经证明安排会晤是个缓慢而困难的过程。 Senator Steve Daines, Republican of Montana, who came to Beijing this month as an informal representative of Mr. Trump, said one of the main goals for his trip was to lay the groundwork for a presidential summit. After meeting China’s vice premier for economic policy, He Lifeng, Mr. Daines said in an interview that he believed a summit would be held by the end of the year — a slower pace than many in Washington had expected. 蒙大拿州共和党参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯本月作为特朗普的非正式代表来到北京，他表示，此行的其中一个主要目标就是为元首会晤奠定基础。在与中国主管经济政策的副总理何立峰会面后，戴恩斯在接受采访时表示，他相信峰会将在今年年底前举行——这比许多华盛顿人士预期的要晚。 On the Chinese side, Communist Party officials and government advisers said in interviews over the past week that they were taken aback by Mr. Trump’s rapid-fire moves on tariffs, Greenland, Ukraine and other issues. They have been startled by his hostile treatment in public of foreign leaders like President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine. As a result, they are cautious about scheduling a summit. 在中国方面，过去一周接受采访的共产党官员和政府顾问表示，他们对特朗普在关税、格陵兰岛、乌克兰等问题上的快速行动感到惊讶。特朗普在公开场合对乌克兰总统泽连斯基等外国领导人的敌对态度也让他们吓了一跳。因此，他们在峰会的安排上持谨慎态度。 Tensions between Beijing and Washington could worsen this week, when a new set of Mr. Trump’s tariffs is set to take effect in a potentially broad limit on trade. 北京和华盛顿之间的紧张局势可能会在本周加剧，届时特朗普的新一轮关税将生效，可能对贸易造成广泛制约。 Chinese officials are reluctant to schedule a summit until the two sides have negotiated details in advance, including a deal between the two countries that would endure for the rest of Mr. Trump’s term. The Trump administration has not yet specified what an acceptable deal might be. 在双方提前谈妥细节之前，中国官员不愿就峰会作出安排，这些细节包括两国之间达成一项在特朗普剩下的任期内有效的协议。特朗普政府尚未明确什么样的协议是可以接受的。 “The Chinese side believes the Trump administration has not really figured out what is the way to deal with China and make a deal,” Wu Xinbo, the dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said on Friday. 上海复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯周五表示：“中方认为，特朗普政府还没有真正想清楚要如何与中国打交道并达成协议。” “The Chinese side would like to wait for a more constructive and sensible signal from the administration,” said Mr. Wu, who was part of an unofficial delegation of retired senior Chinese officials and academic advisers who met with American officials and experts last month in the United States. 吴心伯说：“中国方面想等待美国政府发出更具建设性和理智的信号。”他上月随一个中国退休高官和学术顾问组成的非官方代表团访美，与美国官员和专家举行了会面。 上月天津港的集装箱。中国对从美国进口的化石燃料和农产品施加了报复性关税。 Two other Chinese experts familiar with discussions between the United States and China mentioned the possibility of the two leaders meeting in New York City around the time of the United Nations General Assembly in September. But it remains unclear whether their governments can make enough progress by then, said the experts, who were not authorized to comment. 另外两名熟悉美中之间谈判情况的中国专家提到，两国领导人可能于9月联合国大会期间在纽约会晤。但这两位未获授权公开发表评论的专家表示，两国政府届时能否取得足够的进展仍是未知数。 In a faxed reply to questions about the possible timing of a summit, the spokesperson’s office at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it had “no information to release at this time.” 中国外交部发言人办公室通过传真回复了峰会可能何时举行的问题，称“目前没有可以发布的信息”。 Mr. He held a video call on Wednesday with Jamieson Greer, the United States trade representative. Mr. He expressed concern about Mr. Trump’s imposition of two rounds of 10 percent tariffs on Chinese goods so far this year, according to a Chinese statement after the meeting. 周三，何立峰与美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔举行了视频通话。根据中方在会后发布的声明，何立峰对特朗普今年截至目前对中国商品征收的两轮10%的关税表达了关切。 China has already retaliated against Mr. Trump’s initial tariffs on Chinese goods by imposing extra tariffs on imports of American fossil fuels and agricultural products. 中国已经对特朗普向中国商品征收的第一批关税采取了报复措施，对从美国进口的化石燃料和农产品征收额外关税。 Senator Daines’s trip was only the second congressional visit to China in more than five years. While members of Congress usually travel in groups to foreign countries, no other senators or representatives chose to accompany Mr. Daines to Beijing. 戴恩斯参议员此行是五年多来美国国会成员第二次访华。通常国会议员会组团出访外国，但此次没有其他参议员或众议员随同前往北京。 Beijing has not rewarded the American side for Mr. Daines’s outreach. In an unannounced move on March 16, China, the world’s largest importer of beef, halted practically all imports of American beef. It had previously been buying $1 billion a year of American beef, much of it from Mr. Daines’s state. 北京方面并没有因为戴恩斯的访问而回报美方。3月16日，作为世界上最大的牛肉进口国，中国在未事先宣布的情况下几乎停止了所有美国牛肉的进口。此前，中国每年购买10亿美元的美国牛肉，其中大部分来自戴恩斯所在的州。 Beijing granted five-year licenses in March 2020 to several hundred American slaughterhouses to export beef to China. That came after years of intermittent interruptions in shipments because of trade frictions and China’s purported concerns over mad cow disease in the United States, although international animal health experts found the beef to be safe. China’s own beef industry has also long opposed imports. 2020年3月，中国政府向数百家美国屠宰场颁发了为期五年的对华牛肉出口许可证。在此之前，由于贸易摩擦和中国声称对美国疯牛病的担忧，美国牛肉的对华出口多年来一直时断时续，尽管国际动物卫生专家认为美国牛肉是安全的。中国自己的牛肉行业长期以来也一直反对进口。 The recent expiration of the export licenses has in effect closed the Chinese market, with shipments plummeting to 54 tons in the week after the licenses expired, from about 2,000 tons a week. 最近出口许可证的到期实际上等于关闭了中国市场，在许可证到期后的一周内，出货量从每周约2000吨骤降至54吨。 Beijing’s decision not to renew the slaughterhouse licenses put pressure on Mr. Daines. 中国政府不再延长屠宰场许可证的决定，给戴恩斯带来了压力。 “The effects of this decision on U.S. ranchers can hardly be overstated, which is why I raised this issue directly with Vice Premier He Lifeng,” Mr. Daines said, adding that he was “calling on China to reverse this decision.” 戴恩斯表示：“这一决定对美国牧场主的影响怎么强调都不为过，这就是为什么我直接向何立峰副总理提出了这个问题。”他还说，他“呼吁中国撤销这一决定”。 The spokesperson’s office at China’s foreign ministry said that it was “not aware” of the slaughterhouse license dispute. 中国外交部发言人办公室表示，它“不了解”屠宰场许可证的争议。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ADAM ENTOUS2025年3月31日乌克兰士兵向俄罗斯装甲车辆发射榴弹炮。 David Guttenfelder for The New York Times The war in Ukraine is at an inflection point, with President Trump seeking rapprochement with the Russian leader, Vladimir V. Putin, and pressing for an end to the fighting. 随着美国总统特朗普寻求与俄罗斯领导人普京和解，并力促结束战斗，乌克兰战争正处于拐点。 But for nearly three years before Mr. Trump’s return to power, the United States and Ukraine were joined in an extraordinary partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and technology whose evolution and inner workings have been known only to a small circle of American and allied officials. 但在特朗普重新掌权前的近三年时间里，美国和乌克兰在情报、战略、规划和技术方面结成了非同寻常的伙伴关系，其演变和内部运作情况只有一小部分美国和盟国官员知道。 With remarkable transparency, the Pentagon has offered a public accounting of the $66.5 billion in weaponry it has supplied to Ukraine. But a New York Times investigation reveals that America’s involvement in the war was far deeper than previously understood. The secret partnership both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field. 五角大楼对价值665亿美元的援乌武器装备的详情披露体现出极大的透明度。但《纽约时报》的一项调查显示，美国在这场战争中的参与远比人们之前所了解的要深入得多。这种秘密合作不仅指导了宏观层面的作战策略，还将精确的目标信息传递给了乌克兰前线的士兵。 Here are five takeaways from the investigation. 以下是调查的五大收获。 A U.S. base in Wiesbaden, Germany, supplied the Ukrainians with the coordinates of Russian forces on their soil. 位于德国威斯巴登的一个美国基地向乌克兰人提供了其境内俄罗斯军队的坐标。 The idea behind the partnership was that America’s close cooperation with Ukraine would compensate for Russia’s vast advantages in manpower and weaponry. To guide the Ukrainians as they deployed their ever-more-sophisticated arsenal, the Americans created an operation called Task Force Dragon. 美国与乌克兰的密切合作旨在抵消俄罗斯在人力和武器装备方面的巨大优势。为了指导乌克兰人部署日益精良的武器库，美国人建立了一个名为“龙特遣队”的行动。 The secret center of the partnership was at the U.S. Army garrison in Wiesbaden, Germany. Each morning, U.S. and Ukrainian military officers set targeting priorities — Russian units, pieces of equipment or infrastructure. American and coalition intelligence officers searched satellite imagery, radio emissions and intercepted communications to find Russian positions. Task Force Dragon then gave the Ukrainians the coordinates so they could shoot at them. 合作的秘密中心位于德国威斯巴登的美国陆军驻地。每天早上，美国和乌克兰军官都会确定优先目标——俄罗斯部队、装备或基础设施。美国和联军情报人员通过搜索卫星图像、无线电发射和截获的通信信息来寻找俄罗斯的阵地。然后，“龙特遣队”将坐标提供给乌克兰人，以便他们射击。 Military officials worried that it might be unduly provocative to call the targets “targets.” Instead they were referred to as “points of interest.” 军方官员担心，将这些目标称为“目标”可能会造成不适当的挑衅。于是，他们将其称为“兴趣点”。 U.S. intelligence and artillery helped Ukraine quickly turn the tide against the Russian invasion. 美国情报和火炮帮助乌克兰迅速扭转了俄罗斯入侵的势头。 In spring 2022, the Biden administration agreed to send High Mobility Artillery Systems, or HIMARS, which used satellite-guided rockets for strikes up to 50 miles distant. 2022年春，拜登政府同意向乌克兰输送高机动性火炮系统（即海马斯），该系统使用卫星制导火箭进行打击，射程可达80公里。 In the war’s first year, the Ukrainians were extremely dependent on the Americans for intelligence, and Task Force Dragon vetted and oversaw virtually every HIMARS strike. 在战争的第一年，乌克兰人极其依赖美国人提供的情报，“龙特遣队”几乎审查并监督了每一次海马斯攻击。 The strikes caused Russian casualty rates to soar, and Ukraine’s 2022 counteroffensive was largely successful: By December, the Ukrainians held an unlikely, David-versus-Goliath upper hand against their Russian foe. 这些攻击导致俄罗斯人的伤亡飙升，乌克兰在2022年的反攻也取得了显著成功：到12月，面对他们的俄罗斯敌人，乌克兰人出人意料地建立了“以弱胜强”的优势。 The Biden administration kept moving its red lines. 拜登政府不断移动红线。 From the first, administration officials sought to lay down a red line: America was not fighting Russia; it was helping Ukraine. Still, they worried that steps taken to accomplish that might provoke Mr. Putin to attack N.A.T.O. targets or perhaps make good on his nuclear threats. Even as the administration developed an ever-greater tolerance of risk to help Ukraine meet the evolving threat, many of the most potentially provocative steps were taken in secret. 从一开始，政府官员就试图划定红线：美国不是在与俄罗斯作战，而是在帮助乌克兰。尽管如此，他们还是担心，为实现这一目标而采取的措施可能会激怒普京，导致其攻击北约目标或兑现核威胁。尽管美国政府为帮助乌克兰应对不断变化的威胁而不断提高风险容忍度，许多最具潜在挑衅性的措施还是秘密进行的。 • Easing a prohibition against American boots on Ukrainian ground, Wiesbaden was allowed to put about a dozen military advisers in Kyiv. To avoid drawing public attention to their presence, the Pentagon initially called them “subject matter experts.” Later the team was expanded, to about three dozen, and the military advisers were eventually allowed to travel to Ukrainian command posts closer to the fighting. · 美国军队驻扎乌克兰的禁令得到放宽，威斯巴登方面获准派遣大约12名军事顾问前往基辅。为了避免引起公众的注意，五角大楼最初称他们为“领域专家”。后来，这支团队扩大到大约三十人，军事顾问们最终被允许前往离战斗更近的乌克兰指挥部。 • In 2022, the U.S. Navy was authorized to share targeting information for Ukrainian drone strikes on warships just beyond the territorial waters of Russian-annexed Crimea. The C.I.A. was allowed to support Ukrainian operations within Crimean waters; that fall, the spy agency covertly helped Ukrainian drones strike Russian warships in the port of Sevastopol. · 2022年，美国海军得到授权，可以分享情报供乌克兰无人机打击俄罗斯吞并的克里米亚领海之外的军舰。美国中央情报局获准支持乌克兰在克里米亚水域内的行动；那年秋天，该间谍机构暗中帮助乌克兰无人机袭击了塞瓦斯托波尔港的俄罗斯军舰。 • In January 2024, U.S. and Ukrainian military officers in Wiesbaden jointly planned a campaign — using coalition-supplied long-range missiles, along with Ukrainian drones — to attack about 100 Russian military targets across Crimea. The campaign, named Operation Lunar Hail, largely succeeded in forcing the Russians to pull equipment, facilities and forces in Crimea back to the Russian mainland. · 2024年1月，美国和乌克兰军官在威斯巴登联合策划了一场行动——使用联军提供的远程导弹和乌克兰无人机——攻击克里米亚各地约100个俄罗斯军事目标。这次行动被命名为“月雹行动”，在很大程度上成功地迫使俄罗斯人将克里米亚的装备、设施和部队撤回俄罗斯本土。 Ultimately, the U.S. military and C.I.A. were allowed to help with strikes into Russia. 最终，美国军方和中情局获准协助对俄罗斯境内进行打击。 The hardest red line was the Russian border. But in spring 2024, to protect the northern city of Kharkiv against a Russian assault, the administration authorized the creation of an “ops box” — a zone of Russian territory within which U.S. officers in Wiesbaden could provide the Ukrainians with precise coordinates. The box’s first iteration extended across a wide swath of Ukraine’s northern border. The box was expanded after North Korea sent troops to help fight the Ukrainians’ incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. The U.S. military was later allowed to enable missile strikes in an area of southern Russia where the Russians staged forces and equipment for their offensive in eastern Ukraine. 最严格的红线是俄罗斯边界。但在2024年春季，为了保护北部城市哈尔科夫免受俄罗斯进攻，政府授权设立一个“作战区”——一个位于俄罗斯领土内的区域，威斯巴登的美国官员可以向乌克兰提供精确坐标。这个区域最初的范围覆盖了乌克兰北部边界的广阔地带。随着朝鲜派遣部队协助打击进入俄罗斯库尔斯克地区的乌克兰人，该区域进一步扩大。后来，美国军方获准支持对俄罗斯南部的一个地区进行导弹袭击，俄罗斯人在那里部署了进攻乌克兰东部的部队和装备。 Longstanding policy barred the C.I.A. from providing intelligence on targets on Russian soil. But the C.I.A. could request “variances,” carve-outs to support strikes for specific objectives. Intelligence had identified a vast munitions depot in Toropets, 290 miles north of the Ukrainian border. On Sept. 18, 2024, a swarm of drones slammed into the munitions depot. The blast, as powerful as a small earthquake, opened a crater the width of a football field. Later, the C.I.A. was allowed to enable Ukrainian drone strikes in southern Russia to try to slow advances in eastern Ukraine. 长期以来的政策禁止中情局提供关于俄罗斯境内目标的情报。但该机构可以申请“变通”，为特定目标的打击提供支持。情报显示，在距离乌克兰边界约470公里的托罗佩茨有一个巨大的军火库。2024年9月18日，一个无人机群撞进了这个军火库。爆炸的威力如同一次小型地震，炸出了一个足球场宽的深坑。后来，中情局获准支持乌克兰无人机在俄罗斯南部进行打击，试图减缓俄罗斯在乌克兰东部的进攻。 Political disagreements in Ukraine contributed to the 2023 counteroffensive’s collapse. 乌克兰的政治分歧导致了2023年反攻的失败。 The 2023 counteroffensive was meant to build momentum after the first year’s triumphs. But after the partners held war games in Wiesbaden and agreed on a strategy, the plan ran headlong into Ukrainian politics. 2023年反击战的目的是在第一年的胜利基础上再接再厉。但合作各方在威斯巴登举行兵棋推演并就战略达成一致后，该计划却因乌克兰政治局势而受到阻碍。 The Ukrainian armed forces chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, embraced the plan, whose centerpiece was an assault in the direction of the southern city of Melitopol that would cut off Russian supply lines. But his rival and subordinate, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, had his own plan — to impale Russian forces in the occupied eastern city of Bakhmut. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, sided with him and divided up the ammunition and forces between two main fronts instead of one. The Ukrainians never did reclaim Bakhmut, and within months, the counteroffensive ended in failure. Russia now had the upper hand. 乌克兰武装部队总司令瓦列里·扎卢日尼将军支持这一计划，其核心是向南部城市梅利托波尔发起进攻，切断俄罗斯的补给线。但与他对立的下属亚历山大·西尔斯基上将有自己的计划——在被占领的东部城市巴赫穆特重创俄罗斯军队。乌克兰总统泽连斯基支持了西尔斯基的计划，将弹药和部队分别投入到两个主要战线，而非集中于一处。乌克兰最终未能收复巴赫穆特，几个月后，反攻以失败告终。俄罗斯此时占据了上风。 Adam Entous是一名驻华盛顿调查记者，主要关注国家安全和情报事务。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。
LYNSEY CHUTEL, JOHN YOON2025年3月31日周六，缅甸曼德勒，当地民众和救援人员在一栋被毁的公寓大楼前。 Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images A 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar on Friday, sending shock waves across other parts of Southeast Asia and China and leaving a trail of death and destruction. 周五，缅甸中部发生7.7级地震，东南亚其他地区和中国均有震感，地震造成了人员伤亡和破坏。 The death toll exceeded 1,600 and more than 3,400 people were injured, the country’s military government said Saturday, and those numbers were expected to rise. 缅甸军政府周六表示，死亡人数超过1600人，超过3400人受伤，且伤亡数字预计还会进一步上升。 Hundreds of miles from the epicenter, the earthquake caused the collapse of a high-rise building under construction in Bangkok, killing at least nine people and leaving dozens of others missing. 在距震中数百英里的曼谷，地震导致一座在建的高层建筑倒塌，造成至少九人死亡，数十人失踪。 Myanmar is in the throes of a civil war that has left nearly 20 million people without proper food and shelter. Censorship imposed by its military government has limited the spread of information from the heart of the disaster, even as the scale of damage in Thailand and other countries has slowly become clearer. 缅甸正深陷内战，导致近2000万人缺乏食物和住所。尽管泰国和其他国家的受灾情况已逐渐明朗，但缅甸军政府实施的审查制度限制了来自灾区中心的信息传播。 Where was the epicenter? 震中在哪里？ The quake struck near Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, at roughly 12:50 p.m. local time, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Approximately 11 minutes later, an aftershock hit the same area. 据美国地质调查局称，地震发生在当地时间下午12点50分左右，震中位于缅甸第二大城市曼德勒附近。大约11分钟后，同一地区又发生了一次余震。 Central Myanmar, where large plates of the Earth’s crust are in motion, is prone to powerful earthquakes. The country lies on the eastern end of the Alpide Belt, one of the world’s most active seismic zones. Three quakes of magnitude 7.7 or greater have struck in or near Myanmar in the last century, according to a U.S.G.S. database, with the most recent in 1988. 缅甸中部地壳大板块不断运动，容易发生强烈地震。该国位于阿尔卑斯带东端，这是世界上最活跃的地震带之一。根据美国地质调查局的数据库，过去一百年来，缅甸及其附近地区共发生过三次7.7级或以上地震，最近一次发生在1988年。 The earthquake on Friday struck at a relatively shallow depth of six miles, meaning it was likely to cause more violent shaking. It devastated areas near the Sagaing Fault, which runs north-south through the center of Myanmar. 周五发生的地震震源深度相对较浅，只有约10公里，这意味着地震可能引发更剧烈的震动。地震摧毁了实皆断层附近的地区，该断层呈南北走向，贯穿缅甸中部。 Which countries have been affected? 哪些国家受到了影响？ Despite the limited information from the authorities in Myanmar, the earthquake was almost certainly most destructive there. The city of Mandalay, the largest major city near the epicenter, has an estimated population of 1.5 million. 尽管缅甸当局提供的信息有限，但几乎可以肯定，此次地震对缅甸的破坏最为严重。曼德勒市是靠近震中最大的城市，人口约为150万。 Strong tremors were also felt in neighboring Thailand, particularly in Bangkok, where around 11 million people live in the metropolitan area. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra declared the city an “area of emergency,” asking residents to evacuate from tall buildings to avoid aftershocks. 邻国泰国也感受到了强烈震动，尤其是曼谷，约有1100万人居住在曼谷大都市圈。泰国总理佩通坦宣布曼谷进入“紧急状态”，要求居民从高层建筑撤离，以避免余震。 In China, news media outlets in Yunnan Province, which neighbors Myanmar, reported damage to buildings in the busy border city of Ruili. The shaking was also felt in Bangladesh, to Myanmar’s west, but there were no immediate reports of damage. 在中国，与缅甸相邻的云南省的新闻媒体报道称，繁忙的边境城市瑞丽的建筑物遭到破坏。缅甸西部的孟加拉国也有震感，但目前尚无人员伤亡报告。 What is the death toll, and what damage has been caused? 死亡人数和造成的损失有多少？ Myanmar’s military government said on Saturday that 1,644 people had been killed by the quake, with 3,408 others injured. The full extent of the toll was hard to assess in a country that faces heavy censorship enforced by Myanmar’s military government and has largely been isolated from the rest of the world. 缅甸军政府周六表示，地震已造成1644人死亡，3408人受伤。缅甸军政府实施严格审查，该国与世界其他地区基本隔绝，因此很难评估具体的伤亡人数。 The number of deaths was expected to rise as rescue workers dug through the rubble and injured people made their way to hospitals. Modeling by the U.S.G.S. estimated that the number of deaths was likely to surpass 10,000. 随着救援人员在废墟中搜救，伤者被送往医院，死亡人数预计还会上升。美国地质调查局的模型估计死亡人数可能会超过1万人。 周五，曼德勒一家人满为患的医院外。 In Mandalay, video showed that the Ava Bridge, originally built by the British in the 1930s, had partly collapsed, according to footage verified by The New York Times. The quake was especially damaging to Myanmar’s historic and religious sites, reducing centuries-old monuments to rubble. 经《纽约时报》核实的视频显示，在曼德勒，始建于上世纪30年代、由英国人修建的阿瓦大桥部分坍塌。地震对缅甸的历史和宗教遗址造成了特别严重的破坏，拥有数百年历史的古迹化为废墟。 In Thailand, at least nine people died and scores more were feared buried under the rubble after a high-rise building that had been under construction collapsed in Bangkok. The city’s elevated train service was shut down in the wake of the tremor and people fled from tall buildings after the city was placed in a state of emergency. 在泰国，曼谷一栋在建的高楼倒塌，至少造成九人死亡，另有数十人可能被埋在废墟下。地震发生后，曼谷的轻轨服务被关闭，该市进入紧急状态后，人们纷纷逃离高层建筑。 What aid is Myanmar receiving? 缅甸得到了哪些援助？ The areas worst hit are in the center of Myanmar, which is controlled by the military junta. When disasters have struck in the past, like Cyclone Mocha in 2023 and Cyclone Nargis in 2008, the military government avoided asking for international assistance and throttled aid in areas not under its control. 受灾最严重的地区是缅甸中部，该地区由军政府控制。过去发生灾难时（如2023年的热带气旋“摩卡”和2008年的热带气旋“纳尔吉斯”），军政府都避免寻求国际援助，并限制了不受其控制的地区的援助。 After Friday’s earthquake, the junta made a rare appeal for help as it declared a state of emergency in six regions. 周五地震发生后，军政府罕见地发出求助呼吁，并宣布六个地区进入紧急状态。 周五，四年前通过政变夺取政权的军政府领导人敏昂莱在首都内比都的一家医院。 Areas of the country that are controlled by rebel forces are farther from the epicenter of the quake. These areas appear to be relatively unscathed, but information in these often isolated areas may be slow to emerge. 反叛武装控制的地区距离地震震中较远。这些地区似乎相对没有受到太大影响，但这些偏远地区的信息可能很难及时传出。 International aid began arriving on Saturday. China and India sent food and blankets for survivors, as well as rescue teams equipped with drones and other tools to help with the search effort. 国际援助于周六开始抵达。中国和印度向幸存者送去了食物和毯子，还有配备无人机和其他工具的救援队协助搜救工作。 President Trump said the United States would help, despite having slashed foreign aid and staff. Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea and other countries offered or sent aid in the form of teams of people, equipment and funds. 尽管美国已大幅削减了对外援助和工作人员数量，但特朗普总统表示美国将提供帮助。马来西亚、新加坡、韩国等国已向灾区承诺或已经派遣了人员、设备和资金等形式的援助。 黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)、Keith Bradsher、John Keefe、Richard C. Paddock、Muktita Suhartono、Adam Satariano和孟建国(Paul Mozur)对本文有报道贡献。 Lynsey Chutel是《纽约时报》驻伦敦记者，负责报道非洲、中东和欧洲的突发新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 John Yoon是时报驻首尔记者，报道突发新闻和热门新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Koney Bai 点击查看本文英文版。
PETER BAKER2025年3月28日关于国家安全机密违规问题，特朗普一直是对人不对事。 Eric Lee/The New York Times As far as the Trump administration is concerned, there are government secrets and then there are government secrets. 就特朗普政府而言，有这样的政府机密，也有那样的政府机密。 Details sought by a federal court about a military flight of immigrants that landed many days ago with video cameras recording its arrival? Sorry, judge, too secret to reveal, even now long after the fact. 联邦法院要求提供有关一架多天前降落、有摄像机记录其抵达情况的运送移民军用飞机的详细信息？对不起，法官，这事太机密了，即使事情已经过去很久也不能透露。 Details about an upcoming military strike against American enemies disclosed by the president’s top national security advisers on an unsecured group text chat? Not classified, not a breach of national security and not a big deal. 总统的高级国家安全顾问在一个不安全的群聊里披露了即将对美国敌人进行军事打击的细节？这不是机密，不是对国家安全的威胁，没什么大不了的。 What constitutes an official secret in this new era in Washington, it turns out, seems to depend on who is asking and who is telling. The juxtaposition of two cases involving sensitive information in the same week reinforces just how situational President Trump’s approach to government secrecy can be. 事实证明，在华盛顿的这个新时代，究竟什么构成官方秘密似乎取决于是谁在发问，是谁在说。在同一周内发生两起涉及敏感信息的事例凸显了特朗普总统对待政府保密的方式是多么的“双标”。 And it illustrates Mr. Trump’s remarkable capacity for bending political reality to his will without worrying about facts or consistency. After all, this is a president who has made Canada and Europe out to be enemies not allies, who rewrote history to claim that Ukraine started the war with Russia and who sent lawyers to court to argue that Elon Musk is not really in charge of the Department of Government Efficiency. 这也说明了特朗普有一种非凡的能力，可以随心所欲地扭曲政治现实，而不用担心事实或一致性。毕竟，这是一位把加拿大和欧洲说成是敌人而不是盟友的总统，他改写历史，声称是乌克兰挑起了俄乌战争，他派律师上法庭，辩称埃隆·马斯克并不是政府效率部的真正负责人。 This has become so common that the disparity in what constitutes a secret played out without much acknowledgment of the disparity. On the one hand, the Trump administration invoked the so-called state secrets privilege to defy a federal judge trying to determine whether its no-hearing, no-due-process deportation of immigrants was legal. On the other hand, Mr. Trump brushed off the stunning disclosure of a planned attack on Houthi militants on a group chat that inadvertently included a journalist on the commercial platform Signal. 这样的事已经变得司空见惯，以至于在何为秘密的判定上存在的“双标”可以在不知不觉中起作用。一方面，特朗普政府援引所谓的国家机密特权来对抗一位联邦法官，这位法官试图就政府不经听证和正当程序就驱逐移民的行为是否合法做出裁决。另一方面，特朗普对在民用平台Signal的群聊中披露对胡塞武装发动袭击的计划又不以为意，群中还有一位无意中被拉入的记者。 “What’s baffling is the claim that pending military operations are not so sensitive after all, while the facts of a widely reported deportation that has already occurred cannot be disclosed,” said Steven Aftergood, who spent decades on government secrecy issues at the Federation of American Scientists. “It’s hard to take secrecy seriously as an instrument of national security when it is being manipulated so obviously for self-serving political ends.” “令人费解的是，声称即将进行的军事行动根本不怎么敏感，而已经发生、被广泛报道的驱逐出境的事实却不能披露，”在美国科学家联合会从事政府保密问题研究数十年的史蒂文·阿夫特古德说。“当保密被如此明显地操纵，以达到自私的政治目的时，很难把保密当作国家安全的工具来认真对待。” In both cases, the information at the heart of the issue is a time stamp. In the immigration case, Judge James E. Boasberg has ordered the administration to tell him what time the plane transporting Venezuelans deemed to be gang members took off from U.S. soil, what time it left U.S. air space, what time it landed and what time the migrants were officially transferred out of U.S. custody. 这两件事的核心信息都是时间标记。在移民案件中，詹姆斯·E·博阿斯堡法官命令政府告诉他，运送被视为帮派成员的委内瑞拉人的飞机何时从美国领土起飞，何时离开美国领空，何时降落，以及移民何时正式脱离美国政府的监管。 The judge wants those details to determine whether the administration illegally violated his order to turn the plane around. The administration has said that information is too sensitive to give to him. 法官想要这些细节来决定政府是否非法违反了他让飞机返航的命令。政府表示，这些信息太敏感，不能提供给他。 本月早些时候，特朗普政府将一群委内瑞拉移民驱逐到萨尔瓦多特科卢卡的一所监狱，尽管联邦法官下令停止对他们的转移。 In the case of the Signal chat, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave colleagues on the group chat (and the journalist mistakenly added to it) the precise time that U.S. warplanes and drones would strike the Houthis a couple hours beforehand. 在Signal事件中，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在群聊中提前几小时告诉同事们——以及被误加进去的记者——美国战机和无人机将打击胡塞武装的准确时间。 Presumably, that information might have been of some use to those Houthis being targeted, had they known it. But the White House and Mr. Hegseth are essentially saying that that information actually was not all that sensitive. 可以想见如果胡塞武装知道了这些信息，对他们会有所帮助。但白宫和海格塞斯基本上是在说，这些信息实际上并不是那么敏感。 “We have said all along that no classified material was sent on this messaging thread,” Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said at a briefing this week. “There were no locations, no sources or methods revealed and there were certainly no war plans discussed.” “我们一直都说，这个群聊里没有发出过机密材料，”白宫新闻秘书卡洛琳·莱维特在本周的一次新闻发布会上说。“没有透露地点、信源或方法，当然也没有讨论战争计划。” She did not mention the time estimates. Instead, when pressed about them by reporters, Ms. Leavitt changed the subject and attacked the journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg, editor in chief of The Atlantic, and Democrats for making too much of the whole thing. She then assailed former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. for the botched troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. 她没有提到其中涉及的预估时间。相反，当记者追问这些问题时，莱维特改变了话题，并攻击记者、《大西洋》主编杰弗里·戈德堡，称民主党人过分渲染此事。然后，她抨击前总统拜登从阿富汗拙劣的撤军。 National security veterans in both parties scoffed at the contention that the details that Mr. Hegseth provided about the imminent strike were not classified during the group chat that also included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the national security adviser Michael Waltz and others. 对于海格塞斯在群聊中提供的有关即将发生的袭击的细节不构成机密的说法，两党的国家安全资深人士都嗤之以鼻。参加群聊的还有副总统JD·万斯、国务卿鲁比奥、国家安全顾问迈克尔·沃尔兹等人。 “There is absolutely no way in which the information shared in that group chat was not classified at the highest levels,” said Oona Hathaway, a former Pentagon lawyer now at Yale Law School. “I’m frankly stunned that anyone would try to suggest otherwise. Such detailed information about an imminent military operation is precisely the kind of information that is most closely guarded.” “在这个群聊中分享的信息绝对不可能不是最高机密，”前五角大楼律师、现就职于耶鲁大学法学院的乌娜·哈撒韦说。“坦率地说，我很震惊，居然有人会试图提出不同的看法。这种关于即将开展的军事行动的详细信息恰恰是最需要严密保护的。” She added: “This is all the more absurd in light of the government’s assertion that the state secrets privilege permits it to withhold information from the district court about a plane of migrants that had already landed.” 她还说：“鉴于政府声称国家机密特权允许它向地区法院隐瞒一架已经降落的移民飞机的信息，这就更加荒谬了。” While less sensational secrecy lapses have typically triggered serious investigations involving possible criminal liability, Attorney General Pam Bondi on Thursday seemed to suggest that she did not plan to pursue the issue. 即使远没有如此轰动的保密失误通常都会引发严肃的调查，可能关系到刑事责任，然而司法部长帕姆·邦迪周四似乎表示，她不打算追究这个问题。 Just last week, though, Ms. Bondi’s deputy, Todd Blanche, announced that the Justice Department was opening a criminal investigation into a leak to The New York Times about the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. In his announcement, Mr. Blanche said that the leaked information was “inaccurate but nevertheless classified.” How false information could be classified, he did not explain. 不过，就在上周，邦迪的副手托德·布兰奇宣布，司法部将对有人向《纽约时报》泄露有关委内瑞拉黑帮“特伦·德·阿拉瓜”的信息一事展开刑事调查。布兰奇在声明中说，泄露的信息“不准确，但仍然属于机密”。他没有解释虚假信息如何能成为机密。 国防部长皮特·海格塞斯（右）在 Signal群聊中向同事们（以及一名被误加入群的记者）提前透露了美国战机和无人机在几小时后打击胡塞武装的准确时间。 Mr. Trump has always viewed violations of national security secrecy through the lens of who is doing the violating. He won the presidency for the first time in 2016 at least in part by excoriating his opponent, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, for using an unsecure private server to send email while in office. He led crowds in chants of “lock her up” and declared that if he were elected “no one will be above the law” when it comes to endangering government secrets. 关于国家安全机密违规问题，特朗普一直是对人不对事。他在2016年首次赢得总统大选，至少在一定程度上是因为他严厉指责对手、前国务卿希拉里·克林顿在任期内使用不安全的私人服务器发送电子邮件。他带领人群高呼“把她关起来”，并宣称如果他当选，在危害政府机密的问题方面，“没有人能凌驾于法律之上”。 But once he got to office, Mr. Trump regularly disregarded warnings about protecting government information. He posted sensitive satellite imagery of Iran online. He kept using an unsecured mobile phone even after being told it was monitored by Russian and Chinese intelligence agencies. He tore up official documents and threw them to the floor despite laws requiring they be preserved, leaving aides to collect the pieces and tape them back together. 但特朗普一上台后却经常无视有关保护政府信息的警告。他在网上发布了伊朗的敏感卫星图像。他在被告知手机受到俄罗斯和中国情报机构的监控后，仍使用不安全的手机。他撕毁需依法保存的官方文件，扔在地上，让助手们去收集碎片用胶带粘好。 Most memorably, of course, Mr. Trump took classified documents when he left the White House in January 2021, storing them in a shower, an office, a bedroom and a ballroom at his Mar-a-Lago estate and defying a subpoena requiring him to return them. When the special counsel Jack Smith later indicted him for over his handling of secrets and conspiring to obstruct justice, Mr. Trump derided the case as partisan persecution. 当然，最令人难忘的是他在2021年1月离开白宫时带走机密文件，把它们存放在马阿拉歌庄园的淋浴间、办公室、卧室和宴会厅里，并无视要求他归还文件的传票。当特别检察官杰克·史密斯后来以处理机密和密谋妨碍司法为由起诉他时，特朗普嘲笑此案是党派迫害。 When Mr. Biden was found to also have classified documents at his home in Delaware, however, Mr. Trump expressed outrage, even though Mr. Biden, unlike Mr. Trump, promptly reported the discovery himself, returned the documents and cooperated with investigators. “Trump was peanuts by comparison,” Mr. Trump declared at one point, referring to himself in the third person. 然而，当人们发现拜登在特拉华州的家中也有机密文件时，特朗普表示愤怒（尽管与特朗普不同，拜登自己迅速报告了这一发现，归还了文件，并与调查人员合作）。“相比之下，特朗普的事就是小题大做，”特朗普一度这样宣称。 Even on Thursday, Mr. Trump’s team fell back on a whataboutism defense, insisting that the disclosure of a military operation in advance on a Signal chat was a nothingburger compared to Democratic transgressions. 即使在周四，特朗普团队又再次选择了比烂的角度，坚称在Signal聊天中提前披露一项军事行动，与民主党的违规行为相比根本不值一提。 While Ms. Bondi did not seem troubled enough by the Trump team’s disclosure of attack plans to even initiate an investigation, her department went to court this week to protect the secrecy of information that could compromise the Trump administration politically and legally. 邦迪对特朗普团队披露攻击计划的行为似乎没有太大意见，甚至没有发起调查，但她所在的部门本周向法院提起诉讼，要求保护可能在政治和法律上损害特朗普政府的信息的机密性。 The flight data for the deportation of Venezuelan immigrants would help Judge Boasberg figure out whether the administration ignored his order to turn the plane around so that he could first decide whether the expulsion was legal. 驱逐委内瑞拉移民的飞行数据可以帮助博阿斯堡法官弄清楚，政府是否无视了他的命令，当时他要求飞机掉头返回，由他先裁定驱逐是否合法后再行动。 Ms. Bondi’s department refused to comply, arguing in a brief that disclosure “would pose reasonable danger to national security and foreign affairs.” How that would be a danger once the flight was over was not clear, but the administration included a declaration from Mr. Rubio saying that it would “erode the credibility of the United States’ assurances” to other countries “that information will be maintained in confidence.” 邦迪的司法部拒绝遵照执行，并在一份简报中辩称，相关披露“将对国家安全和外交事务构成相当程度的危险”。目前尚不清楚飞行结束后披露还能构成怎样的危险，但政府附上了鲁比奥的一份声明，称这将“削弱”美国向其他国家保证“信息会被保密”的“信誉”。 However, the government of El Salvador, which agreed to the Trump administration request to accept and imprison the Venezuelan migrants, was hardly trying to keep the matter secret. Indeed, the country’s president posted a video of the arrival. Hiding the time of the arrival did not seem a matter of concern. 然而，应特朗普政府要求接收并监禁委内瑞拉移民的萨尔瓦多政府似乎根本没打算保密。事实上，该国总统发布了一段飞机抵达的视频。看起来他没有隐瞒到达时间的想法。 司法部长帕姆·邦迪坚持认为，在Signal聊天中提前披露军事行动的恶劣程度比不上民主党以前的过失。 In an example of a Washington oddity, the two cases converged in a way on Thursday when the same Judge Boasberg, acting in a separate lawsuit filed in response to the attack plan group chat, ordered the Trump administration to preserve all Signal messages from March 11 to 15 to comply with federal records law. 周四，这两件事在某种程度上有了交集——展现了华盛顿特有的光怪陆离。在针对攻击计划群聊提起的另一起诉讼中，同样是那位博阿斯堡法官命令，特朗普政府应依据联邦记录法保存3月11日至15日间的所有Signal信息。 Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统，有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
MEAGHAN TOBIN, KEITH BRADSHER2025年3月28日周五，北京，习近平（中）与国际商界代表会面。 Florence Lo/Reuters Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, met with executives of Saudi Aramco, BMW, Toyota Motor, FedEx and dozens of other foreign companies at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Friday as China seeks to boost foreign investment amid worsening trade relations between China and the United States. 周五，中国最高领导人习近平在北京人民大会堂会见了沙特阿美、宝马、丰田汽车、联邦快递等数十家外国企业的高管。中美贸易关系恶化之际，中国正努力吸引外资。 It was the third time that Mr. Xi has met with executives of multinationals in the past 17 months, courting investment as sluggish growth and tightening national security laws have made global companies wary of making big bets in China. 这是习近平在17个月内第三次与跨国公司高管会面，以期吸引投资。中国经济增长低迷，而跨国公司也因国家安全法规趋紧对在华进行大规模投资愈发谨慎。 More than 40 executives attended Friday’s meeting, including Amin Nasser of Saudi Aramco, Oliver Zipse of BMW, Akio Toyoda of Toyota, Ola Källenius of Mercedes-Benz, Lee Jae-yong of Samsung and Raj Subramaniam of FedEx, as well as the heads of the global shipping company Maersk, the Japanese conglomerate Hitachi, the South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix and the pharmaceutical giants Pfizer and Sanofi. 超过40位企业高管出席了周五的会面，包括沙特阿美首席执行官阿敏·纳瑟、宝马首席执行官奥利弗·齐普策、丰田汽车会长丰田章男、梅赛德斯-奔驰首席执行官康林松(Ola Källenius)、三星会长李在镕以及联邦快递首席执行官拉吉·苏布拉马尼亚姆。全球航运公司马士基、日本企业集团日立、韩国半导体制造商SK海力士以及制药巨头辉瑞和赛诺菲的负责人也出席了会议。 Mr. Xi urged the executives to maintain the stability of global supply chains and said China held great potential for investors, according to Chinese state media. 据中国官方媒体报道，习近平在会上敦促企业高管维护全球供应链的稳定，并表示中国对投资者来说仍具有巨大潜力。 Fresh foreign investment in China has dropped substantially over the past several years. One exception is the German automotive industry, which sees China, the world’s largest car market, as a place to try to compete with increasingly formidable domestic automakers. 近年来，外国对华新投资大幅下降。但德国汽车行业是个例外。德国车企希望能在中国这个全球最大的汽车市场与实力日益增强的本土车企竞争。 German automakers represented half of new investments from the European Union last year, according to Rhodium Group, a consulting firm. BMW has upped its stake in a Chinese joint venture, and this week announced it would use artificial intelligence technology developed with Chinese tech giant Alibaba in its in-car assistant. 咨询公司荣鼎集团的数据显示，德国汽车制造商贡献了去年欧盟对华新投资的一半。宝马已增持其在华合资企业的股份，并在本周宣布其车载辅助系统将采用与中国科技巨头阿里巴巴合作开发的人工智能技术。 宝马首席执行官奥利弗·齐普策（左）与丰田汽车会长丰田章男，两人均在参加这次会面的高管之列。 A huge new electric car factory by Volkswagen in central China was one of the few new manufacturing facilities built by foreign firms in China last year. Volkswagen has also purchased a small stake in a Chinese automaker, Xpeng, as part of an approach it describes as “in China, for China.” 德国大众汽车在中国中部建设了一座大型电动车工厂，这是去年外国企业在华兴建的少数制造基地之一。作为其“在中国，为中国”战略的一部分，大众还收购了中国汽车制造商小鹏汽车的少量股份。 The meeting with Mr. Xi came four days after the China Development Forum, an annual economic and finance event attended by global executives. Tim Cook of Apple, Stephen Schwarzman of the Blackstone Group and executives from AstraZeneca, Cargill, Pfizer and FedEx, among others, were in Beijing to attend the forum along with the presidents of dozens of Chinese companies. 习近平会见外国企业高管的四天前，北京举办了中国发展高层论坛。该论坛是一个年度经济与金融盛会，苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克、黑石集团首席执行官苏世民以及阿斯利康、嘉吉、辉瑞、联邦快递等全球企业的高管都出席了论坛。与会者还包括数十家中国公司的总裁。 Speaking at the forum, Mr. Källenius of Mercedes-Benz talked about how his company had invested in Chinese engineering, including $2 billion spent in China on a long-wheelbase electric car. 在论坛上，梅赛德斯-奔驰公司的康林松谈到了公司在中国工程领域的投资，包括斥资20亿美元研发一款长轴距电动车。 China tapped $116 billion in foreign investment last year, down from $163 billion the preceding year and a peak of $189 billion in 2022, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce. Much of that money comes from the reinvestment of profits from existing operations. 根据中国商务部的数据，2024年中国吸引外资1160亿美元，低于前年的1630亿美元和2022年的峰值1890亿美元。这些投资的资金大部分来自已有业务取得的利润。 周一，北京，中国副总理何立峰（右）会见黑石集团主席苏世民。 Tensions between Washington and Beijing have discouraged American companies from making new investments. 华盛顿与北京之间的紧张关系使得美国企业在华投资趋于谨慎。 Ever-tightening national security laws have discouraged some investors. Five Chinese employees of the Mintz Group, an American corporate consulting firm, were released after two years in detention, the firm said this week. Firms like the Mintz Group that do research or due diligence for corporations have mostly pulled out of China, leaving multinationals without the support they need to check whether potential investments will face legal, environmental or political issues. 中国不断收紧的国家安全法规也让一些投资者望而却步。本周，美国咨询公司美思明智表示，其五名中国员工在被拘留两年后获释。美思明智这样的公司通常为企业提供市场调研或尽职调查服务，但如今已基本撤出中国，导致跨国企业难以评估潜在投资的法律、环境或政治风险。 Another problem for foreign businesses in China, according to surveys by foreign chambers of commerce, is the deteriorating domestic market. Many industries suffer from severe overcapacity and falling prices. The potential to make a profit from new investments is limited. 根据外国商会的调查，外国企业在中国面临的另一大挑战是国内市场的恶化。许多行业产能严重过剩，价格不断下跌，使得新投资的盈利空间有限。 Siyi Zhao和Berry Wang对本文有研究贡献。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
EAMON DOLAN2025年3月28日 Shuhua Xiong Twelve years ago, I broke up with my mother. She beat me and my siblings hundreds of times in our youth, and she inflicted on us an array of other behaviors that qualified as emotional abuse — from insults and tirades to humiliation and gaslighting. Her abuse continued into my 40s, when after years of futile efforts to change the dynamic between us, I severed ties with her for good. 十二年前，我和母亲断绝了关系。我们小时候，她数以百计次殴打我和她的其他儿女，还对我们实施了一系列可被认定为情感虐待的行为，从辱骂、没完没了的数落到羞辱，再到精神操控。她的虐待一直持续到我40多岁。在历经多年徒劳地试图改变我们之间的关系后，我最终和她彻底断绝了往来。 I expected to feel guilt and grief after my decision, and I did. I didn’t expect to feel joy, but I did. Cutting ties with my mother was one of the most transformative, liberating moments of my entire life. It filled me with uplifting emotions — peace, pride, elation, anger (yes, anger can be uplifting) — that I had never felt before. 做出这个决定后，我料到自己会感到愧疚和悲伤，事实也确实如此。但我没想到自己还会感到喜悦。与母亲断绝关系是我人生中最具变革性、最让我感到解脱的时刻之一。它让我心中充满了从未有过的振奋情绪——平静、自豪、欢欣，甚至还有愤怒（没错，愤怒有时也能让人振奋）。 But for several years, I kept my happiness mostly to myself. During much of that time, my happiness took a back seat to my shame. 但在随后几年里，我基本上将这种喜悦深藏心底。在那段时间的大部分日子里，我的喜悦之情都被羞耻感所掩盖。 Cultural taboos against estrangement — cutting or limiting ties with relatives — make even the most well-intentioned souls withhold support from those who need and deserve it most. When I tell people I’ve written a book that argues for stepping away from relatives who have done us physical or psychological harm, the most common response is concern but not necessarily for those of us who step away. Many people worry about the family members who were cut off. “Isn’t that devastating for your relatives?” they ask. Or “Isn’t no contact kind of drastic?” 疏远亲人——切断或限制与亲人的联系——是一个文化禁忌，这使得即使是最善良的人也不会去向那些在这方面最急需也最应当得到帮助的人提供支持。当我告诉别人我写了一本书，主张和给我们造成身心伤害的亲人保持距离时，最常见的回应是表示担忧，但这种担忧并不一定是为我们这些选择疏远亲人的人而发。许多人担心的是那些被断绝关系的家庭成员。他们会问：“这对你的亲人来说不是毁灭性的打击吗？” 或者“完全不联系是不是有点极端了？” Still others retain a fixation on reconciliation, even suggesting that advice to cut ties is immoral. Some openly questioned my ethics, reminding me that spanking was perfectly acceptable among my mother’s peers or assuring me that she was doing the best she could or berating me for my refusal to forgive and forget. For a long time, I was unable to offer the correct response to such judgments: No abuser’s ignorance or era or condition excuses her behavior any more than her treatment of us gives us license to abuse other people. 还有一些人一味地执着于和解，甚至认为建议断绝关系是不道德的。有些人公然质疑我的道德观念，提醒我说，在我母亲那一代人中，打孩子是完全可以接受的，或者向我保证说她已经尽力了，又或者指责我拒绝原谅和忘却。在很长一段时间里，对于这样的评判，我都无法给出恰当的回应：施虐者的无知、所处的时代或自身的状况不能成为其行为的借口，就如同她对我们的伤害也不能成为我们去虐待他人的理由一样。 My experience of abuse and estrangement, along with that of dozens of other survivors I spoke with, convinces me that estrangement is often the most moral option. What’s immoral is encouraging people to remain in relationships that hurt them. 我自己遭受虐待和疏远亲人的经历以及我与其他数十位幸存者交流的情况让我坚信，在很多时候，与施虐亲人疏远是最合乎道德的选择。鼓励人们继续维持那些伤害他们的关系才是不道德的。 For centuries, society has pressured us to protect the family unit at all costs and vilified us when we failed to do so. Clichés like “blood is thicker than water” have lately been augmented by pundits and aggrieved relatives who complain about the proliferation of hashtags like #toxicfamily and #nocontact on social media. The critics’ complaints are varied — from dismissing it as a TikTok fad to bemoaning spoiled millennials who see trauma in the ordinary ups and downs of family life to attacking therapists who, by advocating estrangement from family, are accused of ignoring the profession’s guidelines to do no harm. This criticism ignores the fact that some of the most commonly cited reasons for estrangement are abuse, neglect, untreated mental illness and addiction that hurt family members. 几个世纪以来，社会一直迫使我们不惜一切代价维护家庭的完整，而当我们未能做到时，又会对我们横加指责。“血浓于水”这样的陈词滥调最近又被一些专家和心怀不满的亲属们拿来反复提及，他们抱怨社交媒体上诸如“有毒家庭”和“断绝联系”等话题标签的泛滥。批评者们的不满五花八门，有人将其斥为爱抱怨、被宠坏的千禧一代在TikTok上制造的一时风潮，这些千禧一代在寻常家庭生活的起伏中都能看到创伤，还有人攻击那些提倡与家人疏远的心理治疗师，指责他们无视了行业中“不可伤人”的准则。这种批评忽略了一个事实：人们与亲人疏远时，最常提及的一些原因包括虐待、忽视、未得到治疗的精神疾病以及成瘾问题，而这些问题都对家庭成员造成了伤害。 The anti-estrangement attitude that prevails in all corners of society, from religion to psychology to pop culture, is grounded in a deep and often willful ignorance about the prevalence of child abuse, the serious harm it inflicts in childhood and beyond and the profound healing that can result from estrangement. Many people — even abuse survivors — fail to recognize the most common forms of maltreatment or grasp their deep impact on us. 从宗教到心理学再到流行文化，社会各个层面普遍存在的这种反对与亲人疏远的态度源于一种深刻且往往是故意的无知。这种无知关系到虐待儿童现象的普遍性、它在童年及之后所造成的严重伤害，以及与施虐亲人疏远后所能带来的深度治愈。许多人——甚至包括虐待幸存者——都未能认识到最常见的虐待形式，也没有理解这些虐待对我们产生的深远影响。 Almost everyone believes that sexual assault of a minor equals abuse, and many would agree that physical assault is abuse, too, although hitting a child is legal, to some extent, in all 50 states. But emotional abuse, a more common kind of maltreatment and the one most likely to persist into a survivor’s adulthood, often goes unnoticed. The most common kind of all, neglect, is itself one of the most neglected in our culture and among the most harmful. 很少有人会否认对未成年人的性侵犯属于虐待，很多人也会认同身体伤害是虐待，尽管美国50个州都在一定程度上允许打孩子。但情感虐待这种更常见也最有可能持续到幸存者成年后的虐待形式却常常被无视。而“忽视”这个最常见的虐待形式本身就是我们文化中最被忽视的问题之一，同时也是危害最大的问题之一。 Only after I started researching my book did I discover the pervasive silence that hides the intertwined phenomena of abuse and estrangement. This silence starts early, and it often starts at home. Kids are hard-wired to believe that whatever they experience in the home is normal and to put their caregivers on a pedestal, regardless of how they treat them. Abusers cement that belief by convincing kids that they deserve their abuse. Institutions like schools and churches can add to the stigma, either with potentially toxic messages like “honor thy father and mother” and “turn the other cheek” or with no teaching at all. Then there are the sins of omission committed by all those — relatives, neighbors, friends — who may witness abuse but say or do nothing. 直到我开始为写书做研究时，我才发现，对这一问题的普遍沉默掩盖了虐待与疏远相互交织的现象。这种沉默很早就开始了，而且往往始于家庭内部。孩子们天生就会认为，他们在家庭中所经历的一切都是正常的，并且会把照顾他们的人奉若神明，无论这些人如何对待他们。施虐者通过让孩子们相信他们活该被虐待，进一步强化了这种观念。学校和教堂等机构可能会加剧这种污名化，要么传递一些潜在有害的信息，比如“孝敬父母”和“要以德报怨”，要么根本就对此不做任何教导。此外，还有那些可能目睹了虐待行为却什么都不说、什么都不做的亲戚、邻居和朋友们，他们这种不作为也是一种罪过。 Pop culture also normalizes family dysfunction, tacitly encouraging us to endure difficult relatives rather than estrange them. Popular TV series, from “The Sopranos” to “Succession,” show us clans that stick together season after season despite abuse that would be suspect if anyone other than a relative perpetrated it. And we’re awash in a sea of self-help books, podcasts and videos that urge us to set aside our sadness, forgive and forget, be grateful for what we have, accept that everything happens for a reason and draw good things to us by thinking only good thoughts. This toxic positivity makes us ignore our emotions and stifle our pain, which lets our abusers, and the culture that abets them, off the hook. 流行文化也使家庭功能失调变得常态化，默认鼓励我们忍受难缠的亲人，而不是与他们疏远。从《黑道家族》(The Sopranos)到《继承之战》(Succession)等热门电视剧向我们展示了一个个家族，其中的行为如果不是亲人在实施，估计就会被认为有虐待之嫌了，但是，一季又一季，这些家族维系在一起。我们还被大量的自助书籍、播客和视频所包围，这些内容都敦促我们抛开悲伤，选择原谅和忘却，对我们所拥有的心怀感激，接受一切发生皆有其因的观点，只有往好处想才会有好事发生。这种有害的积极态度让我们忽视自己的情感，压抑自己的痛苦，从而让施虐者以及助长这种行为的文化得以逃脱应有的指责。 All these forces and more obscure the scope and impact of abuse. Research suggests that child maltreatment may increase the risk that one will suffer a slew of ailments in adulthood: diabetes, high blood pressure, lung disease, cancer, stroke, depression, anxiety, addiction, relationship problems, suicidal ideation and more. Few survivors recognize these conditions as the fallout of abuse; instead, we tend to see them as normal or as innate mental or physical flaws for which we blame ourselves. Fueled by shame, too many of us keep quiet and forgo the support we might receive by sharing our experiences with other survivors. 所有这些因素乃至更多其他因素都掩盖了虐待行为的范围和影响。研究表明，虐待儿童可能会增加一个人在成年后患上一系列疾病的风险，包括糖尿病、高血压、肺部疾病、癌症、中风、抑郁症、焦虑症、成瘾问题、人际关系问题、自杀念头等等。很少有幸存者意识到这些状况是虐待行为的后果，相反，我们往往认为这些是正常的，或者是我们自身内在的精神或身体缺陷，并因此而自责。在羞耻感的驱使下，我们中太多人选择保持沉默，放弃了通过与其他幸存者分享经历而可能获得的支持。 But others are speaking out — and stepping away — at last. I began writing my book just as estrangement became an epidemic, as Joshua Coleman, a psychologist who has studied the phenomenon extensively, and Will Johnson, the chief executive of the Harris Poll, have called it. In the past year alone, stories in The New York Times, The New Yorker, The Guardian, NPR, Oprah Daily, Vogue and elsewhere pondered the implications of this apparent uptick. And a Harris Poll conducted in November in collaboration with Dr. Coleman buttressed the anecdotal evidence I shared above, putting the proportion of estranged Americans at 1 in 2. (The previous benchmark — 27 percent — came from a Cornell study published just four years earlier.) These numbers disprove one of the most persistent myths about estrangement: that it’s rare. In fact, it is perhaps becoming the norm. 但终于，一些人开始发声，并选择断绝联系。在我开始动笔写我的书时，恰逢对这一现象有大量研究的心理学家约书亚·科尔曼和哈里斯民意调查公司首席执行官威尔·约翰逊开始声称，与亲人疏远已经成为一种流行现象。仅在过去一年里，《纽约时报》《纽约客》《卫报》、美国国家公共电台、《奥普拉每日杂志》《Vogue》等媒体都探讨了这种明显增加的现象所带来的影响。去年11月，哈里斯民调与科尔曼合作进行的一项民意调查也印证了我上面所分享的那些轶事证据，调查显示，美国有一半的人曾与亲人疏远（而此前的基准数据是27%，来自四年前康奈尔大学发表的一项研究）。这些数据推翻了关于与亲人疏远的一个最持久的错误观念，即认为这种情况很罕见。事实上，它或许正逐渐成为一种常态。 Estrangement’s growing visibility reveals a shift in social attitudes brought about by several factors. Among them is the pandemic, which thrust some families into painfully close quarters and offered others a hiatus that some members came to relish. More young people are in therapy than in previous generations, and they’re more knowledgeable about concepts like trauma, narcissism and complex post-traumatic stress disorder that relate to abuse. Yet another is the opportunity social media gives people with abusive relatives to support one another and escape the isolating stigma that society, family and even well-meaning friends impose. 与亲人疏远的现象越来越多地出现在人们的视野中，揭示了社会态度的转变，而这种转变是由多种因素共同促成的。其中一个因素是新冠疫情，它让一些家庭的成员被迫长时间共处，痛苦不堪，而对另一些家庭来说，它提供了一个休息的机会，有些成员甚至开始享受这种状态。与前几代人相比，现在接受心理治疗的年轻人更多了，他们对创伤、自恋以及与虐待相关的复杂创伤后应激障碍等概念也有了更多的了解。还有一个因素是，社交媒体为那些遭亲人施虐的人提供了相互支持的机会，让他们能够摆脱社会、家庭甚至是出于好心的朋友所施加的那些让人倍感孤立的污名。 Whatever the causes, I’m profoundly encouraged to see signs of a decline in the shame and stigma that have so long prevented survivors from embracing the lifesaving potential of estrangement. For me, it was the healthiest possible choice, and that’s true for other survivors of parental abuse. One of them told me he had cut ties with his father “to save my life.” Another declared: “I feel proud that I did it. I want to get a tattoo with the date.” 无论原因是什么，我看到幸存者选择与施虐亲人疏远可能带来的羞耻感和污名化在减少，这让我深感鼓舞，长期以来，正是这些羞耻和污名促使人们不愿意做出一个可能拯救生命的决定。对我来说，这是我能做出的最健康的选择，对于其他遭受父母虐待的幸存者来说也是如此。其中一位幸存者告诉我，他与父亲断绝关系“是为了自救”。另一位则宣称：“我为自己的决定感到骄傲。我想在身上纹上断绝关系的日期。” I don’t recall the exact date of my estrangement; otherwise, I might do the same thing. I consider that date as significant as my birthday. Maybe more so, because it’s the day I finally stepped out of my mother’s dark shadow and into my own light. 我不记得我与母亲断绝关系的确切日期了，不然我可能也会这么做。我认为那个日期和我的生日一样重要，也许更重要，因为那一天，我终于走出了母亲的阴影，迎来了属于自己的光明。 Eamon Dolan是即将出版的《The Power of Parting: Finding Peace and Freedom Through Family Estrangement》一书的作者。 翻译：经雷 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
袁莉2025年3月28日 Dongyan Xu In December 1967, when he arrived at a snowy farm on China’s northeastern border with the Soviet Union, Xu Chenggang carried with him an electron tube to help him assemble a radio. 1967年12月，许成钢来到中国东北中苏边境附近的一座白雪皑皑的农场，当时他带了一个电子管，准备用它组装一个收音机。 Mr. Xu, a 17-year-old Beijing native, would spend the next 10 years there, living in a horse stable and subjected to re-education and persecution for his anti-revolutionary thinking. One thing that got him through the cold, dark decade was the tube radio that brought him Voice of America programs. 时年17岁的北京人许成钢将在那里度过接下来的十年，他住在一个马厩里，因其反革命思想而受到再教育和迫害。在那寒冷黑暗的十年里，有一样东西让他度过了难关，就是那台为他带来美国之音节目的收音机。 He learned about the Prague Spring, the Watergate scandal and President Richard Nixon’s resignation, as well as criticisms of Chairman Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution. The radio was also used by his peers as evidence of what was called his thoughtcrime, which led them to torture him physically and mentally. But he never regretted it. 他通过收音机了解到布拉格之春、水门事件和理查德·尼克松总统辞职的消息，以及对毛泽东主席的文化大革命的批判。收音机也成为同伴们指控他“思想犯罪”的证据，这导致他们对他进行了身心上的折磨。但他从不后悔。 “Voice of America was my school,” said Mr. Xu, 74, who attended Tsinghua University and Harvard after the end of the Cultural Revolution and is now an economist at Stanford. The VOA programs beamed into China shaped his worldview, his understanding of constitutional democracy and his values about freedom and human dignity, he said. He also learned English through a special program that provided news and information using a limited vocabulary and slow and clear pronunciations. “美国之音是我的学校，”现年74岁的许成钢说。他在文化大革命结束后进入清华大学和哈佛大学学习，目前是斯坦福大学的经济学家。他表示，美国之音的节目塑造了他的世界观、对宪政民主的理解以及对自由和人类尊严的珍视。他还通过一个特殊的节目学习了英语，该节目使用有限的词汇，并采用缓慢而清晰的发音传递新闻和信息。 Millions of Chinese, me included, learned English through Voice of America and listened to its news reports, which contradicted the Chinese Communist Party’s narratives. Through its programs, we had a glimpse of the world on the other side of the Bamboo Curtain and, later, the Great Firewall, technology China uses to block most popular foreign websites from its citizens. We got to imagine a world where life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness were held as ideals. 包括我在内的数百万中国人通过美国之音学习英语，收听其新闻报道，这些报道与中国共产党官方的叙事相悖。通过这些节目，我们得以一窥“竹幕”另一侧的世界，后来还看到“防火长城“的另一侧——也就是中国为阻止公民访问大多数外国网站使用的技术。我们开始想象一个将生命、自由和追求幸福视为理想的世界。 That’s why it came as a shock to many Chinese when they learned that President Trump had decided to dismantle Voice of America and end grants to Radio Free Asia. It’s unfathomable to them that Washington would surrender the battle of narratives by silencing these news outlets, which produce uncensored and factual reporting on countries like China that lack a free press. 这就是为什么当得知特朗普总统决定解散美国之音，并停止对自由亚洲电台拨款时，许多中国人感到震惊。这些新闻机构对中国这样缺乏新闻自由的国家进行了未经审查的事实报道。对他们来说，华盛顿竟然让这些新闻机构沉默，从而放弃叙事之战，这是难以理解的。 It’s a decision that “pains one’s loved ones and pleases one’s enemies,” as a Chinese saying goes. Nationalist Chinese celebrated the news. “The so-called beacon of freedom, VOA, has now been discarded by its own government like a dirty rag,” Global Times, the Communist Party tabloid, wrote in an editorial. 这个决定如同中国俗话所说：“亲者痛，仇者快”。中国的民族主义者庆祝这一消息。共产党小报《环球时报》在一篇社论中写道：“美国之音这块所谓“自由灯塔”的招牌，如今已被本国政府嫌弃得像块脏抹布。” 位于华盛顿的美国之音大楼。数百万中国人通过它的广播学习英语，收听它的新闻报道。 Beijing has long loathed Voice of America’s China coverage, especially its reporting on the persecutions of Uyghurs and Tibetans, the protests in Hong Kong in 2019, the draconian “zero Covid” measures during the pandemic and the country’s economic slowdown. “Almost every malicious falsehood about China has VOA’s fingerprints all over it,” the editorial said. 北京长期以来一直痛恨美国之音对中国的报道，特别是其对维吾尔人和藏人受到迫害、2019年香港抗议、疫情期间严苛的“清零”政策以及中国经济放缓的报道。该社论写道：“几乎每一个荒谬恶毒的涉华谎言背后，都少不了这家媒体的‘原创贡献’。” I interviewed and had email exchanges with a dozen Chinese, including some in their 20s and 30s. They expressed their sadness and disappointment about the closing or weakening of these agencies. Other than Mr. Xu, they all asked for anonymity, or that I use only their first names, for fear of retribution from Beijing or Washington. 我采访了十多位中国人，与他们通过电子邮件进行了交流，包括一些20多岁和30多岁的人。他们对这些机构的关闭或削弱表示了悲伤和失望。因为担心来自北京或华盛顿的报复，除了许成钢之外，他们都要求匿名，或者不使用他们的姓氏。 Over the past decade or so, Beijing has killed independent journalism, first in China and increasingly in Hong Kong. That makes agencies like VOA some of the few reliable institutional sources of news that people in the Chinese speaking world can turn to. 在过去十年左右的时间里，北京扼杀了独立新闻业——首先是在中国大陆，然后越来越多地扩展到香港。这使得像美国之音这样的机构成为中文世界中人们可以依赖的少数可靠的新闻来源之一。 “Without VOA and RFA’s independent reporting, Beijing and other authoritarian actors could more easily flood the information space with state propaganda, presenting a distorted view of reality to both domestic and international audiences,” wrote Kris Cheng, a journalist from Hong Kong. “如果没有美国之音和自由亚洲电台的独立报道，北京和其他专制政权将更容易用国家的政治宣传充斥信息空间，向国内外观众呈现扭曲的现实，”香港记者郑乐捷写道。 Mr. Cheng, like more than 1,000 of his peers, was forced to leave home and has been freelancing for VOA out of London since 2021. “This would be a strategic victory for the Chinese and Hong Kong governments.” 郑乐捷和其他1000多名香港记者一样被迫背井离乡，他自2021年以来一直在伦敦担任美国之音的自由撰稿人。“这将是中国政府和香港政府的战略胜利"。 The U.S. government needs media organizations that convey American values to the world, said a 35-year-old biotech worker in the San Francisco Bay Area who started listening to Voice of America when he was in high school in China. 美国政府需要向世界传递美国价值观的媒体机构，旧金山湾区一位35岁的生物技术工作者说，他在中国读高中时就开始收听美国之音。 “Since the United States views China as its biggest competitor, you should have a tool like this in your toolbox,” he said. He is set to become a naturalized citizen next month and invoked the Declaration of Independence in our video call. He said he supported President Trump but had not expected the administration to dismantle these agencies without a backup plan. 他说：“既然美国将中国视为最大的竞争对手，那么你应该在工具箱里有这样一个工具。”下个月将成为美国公民的他在我们的视频通话中提到了《独立宣言》。他说他支持特朗普总统，但没想到政府会在没有后备方案的情况下解散这些机构。 In a statement on the White House website, the Trump administration listed reasons behind Mr. Trump’s executive order to shutter Voice of America, including a report by The Daily Caller, a right-wing website, that said multiple VOA reporters had posted anti-Trump content on their social media accounts. Radio Free Asia and some VOA employees are challenging the administration’s efforts in court. 在白宫网站上的一份声明中，特朗普政府列出了总统下达行政命令关闭美国之音的原因，其中包括右翼网站《每日呼吁者》的一篇报道，该报道称美国之音的多名记者在其社交媒体账户上发布了反特朗普的内容。 In February, Elon Musk posted on X that the agencies were “just radical left crazy people talking to themselves while torching $1B/year of US taxpayer money.” 今年2月，埃隆·马斯克在X上发帖称，这些机构“只是激进的左派疯子在自说自话，同时每年烧掉美国纳税人10亿美元”。 That’s not true. 这不是事实。 Voice of America reaches more than 361 million people a week around the world on an annual budget of $268 million. Its English channel on YouTube has 3.7 million subscribers. Its Chinese channel has 2.3 million subscribers. Many of its programs’ episodes had millions of views, including an hourlong one by Mr. Xu, the Stanford economist, on China’s economic troubles, which was viewed 5.1 million times. A weekly commentary program by Cai Xia, a retired professor of the Communist Party central school turned critic of the party, garnered hundreds of thousands of views for each episode on YouTube. They and some other regular commentators on VOA and Radio Free Asia are far from radical leftists. 年预算2.68亿美元的美国之音每周可以覆盖到全球超过3.61亿人。其YouTube英文频道拥有370万订阅者，中文频道有230万订阅者。许多节目的观看次数达到了百万级别，其中斯坦福大学经济学家许成钢的一个关于中国经济困境的一小时长节目观看次数达到510万。还有每周播出一集的中央党校退休教授蔡霞的评论节目，每集也获得了数十万次观看。他们以及其他一些在美国之音和自由亚洲电台的常驻评论员远非激进左派分子。 Radio Free Asia broadcasts in Burmese, Cantonese, English, Khmer, Korean, Lao, Mandarin, Tibetan, Uyghur and Vietnamese. It has an annual budget of $60.8 million and reaches 58 million people a week. “The cost is inconsequential compared to the value of news that challenges the narratives of autocratic regimes,” The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board wrote last week. 自由亚洲电台以缅甸语、粤语、英语、柬埔寨语、韩语、老挝语、汉语普通话、藏语、维吾尔语和越南语进行广播。它的年预算为6080万美元，每周覆盖5800万人。“与挑战专制政权叙事的新闻价值相比，这个成本微不足道，”《华尔街日报》编辑委员会上周写道。 The Cold War ended partly because the thinking of Europeans living in Eastern bloc countries changed, Mr. Xu said. “There might be nothing cheaper than disseminating ideas,” he added. 许成钢说，冷战结束的部分原因是生活在东欧国家的欧洲人的思想发生了变化。他还说：“可能没有比传播思想更便宜的事情了。” Agencies like VOA and RFA were created to use uncensored information to fight communism and promote democratic values. Like any traditional media, they have been forced to adapt to the digital age. In 2020, Radio Free Asia launched an online newsmagazine, called WHYNOT, aimed at young Chinese speakers. It quickly gained traction with its coverage of the White Paper protests in 2022. 像美国之音和自由亚洲电台这样的机构是为了利用未经审查的信息来对抗共产主义并推广民主价值观而创建的。和所有传统媒体一样，它们也被迫要适应数字时代。2020年，自由亚洲电台推出了面向年轻中文听众的在线新闻杂志《WHYNOT》。该杂志迅速因其对2022年“白纸革命”抗议活动的报道而获得关注。 The U.S. government is giving up on telling its story to the world while China is getting better at shaping narratives and promoting its geopolitical goals. 美国政府正在放弃向世界讲述自己的故事，中国则越来越擅长塑造叙事并推动其地缘政治目标。 In a 2023 report, the State Department said Beijing had invested billions of dollars to construct an information ecosystem to propel China’s propaganda. “Unchecked,” the report said, “the P.R.C.’s efforts will reshape the global information landscape,” using an abbreviation for the People’s Republic of China, the country’s official name. 在2023年的一份报告中，美国国务院表示，北京已经投资数十亿美元建设一个信息生态系统，以推动中国的宣传。“如果不加以遏制，”报告写道，“PRC的努力将重新塑造全球信息格局。”其中的PRC是中华人民共和国的缩写。 In interviews, Chinese told me how Voice of America and Radio Free Asia had changed their lives. 在采访中，许多中国人告诉我，美国之音和自由亚洲电台改变了他们的生活。 Zilu, who is in their 30s, started listening to VOA during family breakfast because their father didn’t like the Chinese government. Zilu hummed the opening music of the morning news program to me. In 2001, at the age of 12, they were appalled that their classmates clapped at the Sept. 11 terrorism attacks. Now they read WHYNOT. 30岁出头的子鹿（音）一开始是在和家人吃早餐时收听美国之音，因为他们的父亲不喜欢中国政府。子鹿哼给我听早间新闻节目的开场音乐。2001年，当时12岁的子鹿对同学们为“9·11”恐怖袭击事件鼓掌而感到震惊。现在，子鹿会阅读《WHYNOT》杂志。 Another Chinese person I spoke to, Xuanyi, 29, started listening to Voice of America in high school to learn English. Its news programs led him to conclude that his government did bad things and refused to admit its mistakes. Now a government worker in northern China, he is worried that without U.S. government news outlets, Chinese who circumvent the Great Firewall will find that the internet outside China is full of misinformation. 我还采访了一位29岁的中国人轩逸（音），他在高中时开始收听美国之音来学英语。其新闻节目让他得出结论：自己的政府做了坏事，却拒绝承认错误。现在他在中国北方做政府工作，他担心如果没有美国政府的新闻机构，那些突破“防火长城”的中国人会发现，中国之外的互联网充满了虚假信息。 “They might lose interest and retreat back inside the Great Firewall quickly,” he said. “他们可能会失去兴趣，迅速退回到‘防火长城’里，”他说。 袁莉为《纽约时报》撰写“新新世界”专栏，专注中国及亚洲科技、商业和政治交叉议题。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAMIEN CAVE, STEVEN ERLANGER2025年3月28日加拿大总理马克·卡尼（中）参观哈利法克斯的一家工厂，摄于周二。卡尼在周三将美国总统特朗普的最新一轮关税描述为“直接攻击”。 Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press, via Associated Press President Trump’s unexpected plan to impose a 25 percent tariff on cars and car parts imported into the United States will not only disrupt supply chains. It will also fuel anger and alienation — and pressure to retaliate — among American allies across the globe. 美国总统特朗普出人意料地打算对进口到美国的汽车和汽车零部件征收25%的关税，这不仅会扰乱供应链，还会在美国全球各地的盟友中加剧愤怒和疏远，增加它们采取报复措施的压力。 Many of the countries most affected by the new levies, such as South Korea, Japan, Germany, Mexico and Canada, are already reeling from the Trump team’s disregard for free trade deals already signed and his threats to long-established security relationships. 受新关税影响最大的许多国家（如韩国、日本、德国、墨西哥、加拿大）因特朗普团队无视已签署的自由贸易协定和他威胁长期建立起来的安全关系的做法而感到震惊。 Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada said on Wednesday that Trump’s move on tariffs was “a direct attack.” Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said the result would be “bad for businesses” and “worse for consumers.” Robert Habeck, Germany’s acting economics minister, said, “It is now important for the E.U. to respond decisively to the tariffs — it must be clear that we will not back down in the face of the U.S.” 加拿大总理马克·卡尼周三表示，特朗普加征关税是“直接攻击”。欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩称，关税的结果“对企业不利”，“对消费者更糟”。德国代理经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克表示，“欧盟现在对关税作出果断回应很重要，我们必须明确表示，我们不会在美国面前退缩。” Other leaders reacted in muted terms, hinting that they were still considering how to respond, with another round of tariffs, in addition to this one, expected in early April. 其他领导人的反应则比较低调，暗示他们仍在考虑如何应对，除了这一轮关税外，预计4月初还会有新一轮关税。 “We need to consider what’s best for Japan’s national interest,” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan told Parliament on Thursday. “We’re putting all options on the table in considering the most effective response.” “我们需要考虑最符合日本国家利益的做法，”日本首相石破茂周四对国会说。“我们正在把所有选项摆到桌面上，考虑最有效的应对措施。” The tariffs, which threaten both American and foreign carmakers, increase the likelihood of a global trade war. A chain reaction of economic nationalism with tariffs and other measures — perhaps adding costs for finance and services — could suppress economic growth globally, spread inflation and add rancor to already testy negotiations with Washington about security. 这些关税给美国和外国的汽车制造商们都带来威胁，增加了全球贸易战的可能性。使用关税和其他措施的经济民族主义连锁反应可能导致金融和服务成本增加，抑制全球经济增长，让通货膨胀蔓延，并可能会使其他国家与美国本已紧张的安全谈判气氛更加激烈。 The Trump White House has sought to use every tool of American power, including its military support and consumer market, to extract what Mr. Trump sees as a better deal for Americans. But for countries that have spent decades trusting America and tying their economies and defense plans to Washington’s promises, this feels like a moment of reversal. 特朗普政府试图使用美国影响力的所有工具，包括美国的军事支持和消费市场，来获取在特朗普眼里对美国人更有利的交易。但对那些几十年来一直信任美国、把本国的经济与国防计划与华盛顿的承诺联系在一起的国家来说，这是一个逆转的时刻。 American influence, long built on pronouncements about values and the shared riches of free trade, has hardened into what many analysts describe as “all stick, no carrot.” In the Trump team’s thinking, critics argue, American gains require pain for others — friends included. 美国影响力长期以来建立在宣扬价值观和自由贸易带来共同财富的基础之上，如今已变得强硬，被许多分析人士称为“只有大棒，没有胡萝卜”。批评人士认为，特朗普班子的思维方式是，美国要得到好处，就需要其他国家（包括盟友）付出代价。 “Everything is a status competition or a dominance competition,” said Andrew Kydd, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin who incorporates psychology into studies of international relations. “I think this is characteristic of extremists of all stripes — everything is about exploitation and domination, and to think otherwise is to be blind or naïve.” “一切都是地位的竞争、或主导地位的竞争，”威斯康星大学政治学家安德鲁·基德说，他把心理学融入到国际关系研究中。“我认为这是各种极端分子的特点：一切都和剥削与控制有关，不这样想就是盲目或天真。” As a result, he added, other countries “have to take seriously the articulated goals, however alarming.” That includes threats to seize Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal, plus demands for economic submission to tariffs that weaken the economies of allies. 他还表示，其结果是，其他国家“不得不认真对待（美国）明确表达的目标，无论多么骇人听闻”。这些目标包括吞并加拿大、收购格陵兰岛、夺取巴拿马运河的威胁，还包括要求盟国在经济上屈服，接受削弱它们经济的关税。 The European Union, which governs trade policies for its 27 member states, has been working for months on proposals for counter-tariffs if necessary. Those are designed to target areas of the United States that supported Mr. Trump in the last election. The United States is the E.U.’s largest trade partner, with nearly a trillion dollars of two-way trade last year, so new tariffs and counter-tariffs will have a dramatic impact on both sides, and sharply increase market uncertainty. 负责管理27个成员国贸易政策的欧盟几个月来一直在研究必要时对关税采取反制措施的提案。这些措施主要针对在上次大选中支持特朗普的美国选区。美国是欧盟最大的贸易伙伴，去年的双边贸易额接近1万亿美元，因此新的关税和反制措施将对双方产生巨大影响，并大幅增加市场的不确定性。 停放在巴尔的摩港口的汽车，摄于今年2月。 European Union officials have already announced plans to place new tariffs on many American goods — from lingerie to soy products — by mid-April, while lifting suspension of previous countermeasures imposed on earlier tariff fights over steel and aluminum. 欧盟官员已宣布将在4月中旬前对从内衣到豆制品等许多美国商品加征关税，同时不再延缓实施此前因美国对钢铝加征关税宣布的反制措施。 That first wave, meant to hit American whiskey and motorcycles, was delayed to allow for more negotiations and over fears of a stark American response that could crush European wine and Champagne exports. 欧洲第一轮反制措施的打击目标是美国威士忌和摩托车，但为了进行更多谈判，也出于担心美国可能会作出严重打击欧洲葡萄酒和香槟出口的强烈反应，这轮计划被暂缓实施。 More potent measures are now likely to follow. 更有力的反制措施现在可能会接踵而至。 Ms. von der Leyen said late Wednesday that the European Union would “continue to seek negotiated solutions, while safeguarding its economic interests.” 冯德莱恩在周三晚间表示，欧盟将“在维护自身经济利益的同时，继续寻求谈判解决方案”。 European countries, especially Germany, export many more cars to the United States than they import. Anger about this disparity has been a regular theme for Mr. Trump since the 1980s, long before he went into politics, when he often complained about the numbers of German and Japanese cars on American streets. 欧洲国家（尤其是德国）向美国出口的汽车数量远远超过从美国进口的数量。自从20世纪80年代以来，早在他进入政界之前，特朗普就经常对这种不平衡表示愤怒，他经常抱怨美国大街上有太多德国和日本的汽车。 The United States is the most important export market for Germany’s auto industry, and the largest three German carmakers make up about 73 percent of the European Union’s automotive exports to the United States. 美国是德国汽车业最重要的出口市场，德国三大汽车制造商占欧盟对美汽车出口的73%左右。 Armin Laschet, a conservative who may become Germany’s next foreign minister, said a robust response to the tariffs must come from the European Union. 有可能出任德国下任外交部长的保守派人士阿明·拉舍特 称，欧盟必须对美国的关税作出有力的回应。 德国辛德芬根梅赛德斯奔驰工厂的一条生产线，摄于去年。 Canadian officials — with an election weeks away — have issued a similar call for action. On Wednesday, Mr. Carney’s campaign brought him to the bridge at the border with Detroit over which $300 million worth of auto parts cross daily. He unveiled a series of promises for the auto industry including a two billion Canadian dollar ($1.4 billion) fund to reshape it for a future without the United States. 加拿大官员们也发出了采取类似行动的呼吁，该国将在几周后举行联邦选举。周三，卡尼的竞选活动在与底特律相连的边境大桥举行，每天有价值3亿美元的汽车零部件从这座桥上通过。他公布了一系列针对汽车行业的承诺，包括设立一个20亿加元（约合14亿美元）的基金，以重塑汽车行业，迎接一个没有美国的未来。 “We will defend our workers, we will defend our companies, we will defend our country, and we will defend it together,” he said. “我们将捍卫我们的工人，捍卫我们的企业，捍卫我们的国家，我们将一起捍卫这一切，”他说。 In Asia, officials had hoped for softer tariff treatment based on factories already being built in the United States at great expense. “We invest in America, employ people, and pay the highest wages,” Mr. Ishiba, the Japanese prime minister, said. 亚洲国家的官员曾希望获得美国更宽松的关税待遇，因为它们已经在美国斥巨资建设工厂。“我们在美国投资，雇佣员工，支付最高的工资，”日本首相石破茂说。 特朗普与日本首相石破茂在白宫的椭圆形办公室举行会晤，摄于今年2月。 And yet, at a moment when economic and military threats seem to be converging for Japan, analysts said his hands were tied: Because inflation is rising with a weakened Japanese yen, Japan cannot afford a trade spat that drives up consumer prices even further. And with a more militarized China on Japan’s doorstep, sending armed ships to assert its claims to disputed islands in recent days, the prime minister is most keen to get a clear commitment from Mr. Trump to defend Japan’s security. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is scheduled to arrive in Tokyo this week. 但是，当日本面临的经济和军事威胁似乎交织在一起的时刻，分析人士称，石破茂能采取的措施有限：日元已贬值，通货膨胀正在上升，这让日本不能承受将进一步推高消费价格的贸易争端。随着更加军事化的中国在日本大门口出现，包括前不久派武装舰艇前往有争议岛屿的水域提出主权要求，日本首相更渴望得到特朗普对捍卫日本安全的明确承诺。美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯将在本周访问东京。 So far, the Trump administration has sent conflicting signals to America’s largest Asian ally. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reaffirmed support for Japan, the president himself has publicly questioned the two nations’ security alliance. 到目前为止，特朗普政府已向美国在亚洲的最大盟友发出了相互矛盾的信号。在国务卿鲁比奥重申支持日本的同时，总统本人却公开对两国的安全同盟表示怀疑。 “We are very much constrained at this moment,” said Ken Jimbo, a professor of international politics and security at Keio University. “我们目前受到很大限制，”庆应义塾大学研究国际政治与安全的教授神保谦说。 South Korea finds itself in a similar position; it has deepened its diplomatic and military dependence on the United States in recent years, as anti-Chinese sentiment rose among its people, and to strengthen deterrence against North Korea. 韩国也处于类似的境地；近年来，随着韩国民众的反华情绪上升，同时为了加强对朝鲜的威慑，韩国加深了外交和军事上对美国的依赖。 South Koreans’ fundamental trust in the alliance will survive the latest tariffs, in part because the penalties didn’t target South Korea only but also hit competitors, said Park Won-gon, an expert in South Korea-U.S. relations at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. 韩国人对韩美联盟的基本信任能够经受住最新这轮关税的考验，部分原因是这些惩罚措施针对的不只是韩国，也打击了韩国的竞争对手，首尔梨花女子大学研究韩美关系的专家朴元坤（音）说。 But cars are one of South Korea’s biggest export items, totaling $71 billion last year, and the United States was the destination for nearly half. The government called for a meeting with the car industry on Thursday to discuss a response to the tariffs. 但汽车是韩国出口商品中最有价值的东西，去年的汽车出口总额达710亿美元，其中近一半销往美国。韩国政府已召集汽车行业在周四开会讨论如何应对关税。 “The U.S. tariffs are expected to pose significant challenges for our automobile companies exporting a large volume to the U.S. market,” said Ahn Duk-geun, South Korea’s trade minister. “美国的关税预计将对向美国市场大量出口汽车的韩国汽车企业构成重大挑战，”韩国产业通商资源部部长安德根说。 On news portals from the left and right, many Koreans expressed outrage that the tariffs were landing just a few days after Hyundai Motor, a South Korean conglomerate, said it would invest $21 billion to expand manufacturing in the United States. 在左右两派的新闻门户网站上，许多韩国人对美国加征关税表示愤怒，因为几天前，韩国企业集团现代汽车还表示将投资210亿美元，扩建在美国的汽车工厂。 William Choong, a senior fellow at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said that for many Asian allies, it feels as if the United States is a police commander “that sticks his Glock down the back of the junior cop — i.e. regional countries — and starts shaking him down for cash and other valuables.” 新加坡尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究所的高级研究员钟伟伦表示，对许多亚洲盟友来说，美国给它们的感觉就像一个警察局长，“把格洛克手枪顶在下级警官（即区域国家）的背上，敲诈勒索现金和其他贵重物品”。 Ian Austen自加拿大安大略省温莎、Choe Sang-Hun自首尔、Martin Fackler自东京、Emiliano Rodríguez Mega自墨西哥城、Jeanna Smialek自布鲁塞尔、Melissa Eddy和Christopher F. Schuetze自柏林对本文有报道贡献。 Damien Cave领导时报在越南胡志明市的新分社，报道亚洲及全球世界范围内的权力转移。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Steven Erlanger是时报欧洲首席外交记者，常驻柏林。他此前曾在布鲁塞尔、伦敦、巴黎、耶路撒冷、柏林、布拉格、贝尔格莱格、华盛顿、莫斯科和曼谷等地进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID PIERSON, MARTIN FACKLER, HISAKO UENO2025年3月27日周六，中国外交部长王毅（左）在东京会见了日本外相岩屋毅（中）和韩国外长赵兑烈。与此同时，中日两国船只在争议水域对峙。 Pool photo by Rodrigo Reyes Marin When China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, met with his Japanese and South Korean counterparts in Tokyo last weekend, he said China saw “great potential” for trade and stability if the three neighbors worked together. Citing what he called their shared “Oriental wisdom,” he quoted a proverb, seemingly alluding to the United States as an unreliable, distant ally: “Close neighbors are better than relatives far away.” 中国最高外交官王毅上周末在东京会见日本和韩国外长时表示，在中国看来，如果三个邻国共同努力，贸易和稳定会有巨大的“潜力”。他引用谚语“远亲不如近邻”，称之为三国共有的“东方智慧”，似乎也在暗指美国是一个不可靠的远方盟友。 But even as the officials were talking, two Chinese Coast Guard ships had begun an unusual incursion into waters near disputed islands in the East China Sea. Japan’s coast guard, which moved to intercept them, said the Chinese ships were armed and had been pursuing a small Japanese fishing boat. 但是，就在官员们谈话的时候，两艘中国海警船不寻常地侵入东海争议岛屿附近的水域。前往拦截的日本海上保安厅表示，装备武器的中国船只一直在追赶一艘日本小渔船。 Japan said the incursion, which lasted nearly four days, was China’s longest yet into the waters around the islands, which are claimed by both countries. Japan’s foreign minister said he had protested to Mr. Wang on Saturday about an increase in such activity around the uninhabited islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku and China calls the Diaoyu. 日本表示，此次侵犯持续了近四天，是中国迄今在该争议岛屿周围海域活动时间最长的一次。中日两国都声称对该岛屿拥有主权。日本外相说，关于这些无人居住岛屿（日本称尖阁诸岛，中国称钓鱼岛）周围此类活动的增加，他已于周六向王毅提出抗议。 China’s simultaneous pledges of friendship and deployment of armed ships reflect the two sides of Beijing’s strategy for dealing with a Trump administration that is rapidly recalibrating America’s place in the world. 面对正在迅速调整美国的世界地位的特朗普政府，北京在做出友好承诺的同时部署武装舰艇，反映出其政策的两面性。 China is using a “carrots and sticks” approach with its neighbors, to “reward the policies of the target country that advantage Chinese interests and warn against those policies that are harmful to China,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, the managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based research institution. 位于华盛顿的研究机构德国马歇尔基金会印太项目主任葛来仪(Bonnie S. Glaser)说，中国正在对邻国采取“胡萝卜加大棒”的方式，“对目标国有利于中国利益的政策给予奖励，并警告其不要采取对中国有害的政策。” 去年在争议岛屿（日本称尖阁诸岛，中国称钓鱼岛）附近的一艘中国海警船。这些岛屿由日本控制，中国也声称拥有主权。 On the one hand, as Mr. Trump alienates allies of the United States, including by imposing tariffs and, in Japan’s case, questioning the fairness of a defense treaty, China sees an opportunity to court those countries. 一方面，随着特朗普疏远美国的盟友，包括征收关税，以及——具体到日本——质疑一项防务条约的公平性，中国看到了拉拢这些国家的机会。 On the other hand, China seems to have concluded that Mr. Trump’s abrasive foreign policy gives it leverage to advance its interests when so many U.S. allies are feeling vulnerable and questioning America’s reliability. 另一方面，中国似乎已经断定，在众多美国盟友感到脆弱、质疑美国的可靠性之际，特朗普粗暴的外交政策给了中国推进自身利益的筹码。 “China sees Trump’s alienation of U.S. allies as providing an opportunity, but that doesn’t mean that Beijing will refrain from signaling their dissatisfaction when China’s core interests are being threatened,” Ms. Glaser said. “中国认为特朗普疏远美国盟友提供了一个机会，但这并不意味着当中国的核心利益受到威胁时，北京就会避免表达不满，”葛来仪说。 That seems to be the case with Australia, which has had, at times, a tumultuous relationship with China. After Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took office in 2022, he moved to repair the relationship. Since then, China has lifted restrictions on a range of Australian exports, including wine, red meat and lobster. Last month, Chinese and Australian defense officials held high-level talks in Beijing for the first time in six years. 澳大利亚似乎就是这种情况，它与中国的关系时不时陷入动荡。安东尼·阿尔巴内斯总理2022年上任后开始修复两国关系。此后，中国取消了对澳大利亚葡萄酒、红肉和龙虾等一系列出口产品的限制。上个月，中国和澳大利亚国防官员在北京举行了六年来的首次高级别会谈。 But just days later, a Chinese naval flotilla began circumnavigating Australia, unannounced. It conducted a live-fire drill in the area for the first time, forcing dozens of civilian flights to reroute. 但就在几天后，一支中国海军舰队在未事先通知的情况下进行了绕澳大利亚航行，并首次在该地区进行了实弹演习，迫使数十架民航班机改变航线。 The exercises set off alarm in Australia and calls to re-evaluate its defenses. Some analysts said the drills were probably a response to the Australian Navy’s frequent voyages in the South China Sea, over which China claims sovereignty. Others said China could have been testing how the Trump administration would react to shows of force so close to one of America’s most trusted allies. 这些演习在澳大利亚引起了警觉，并呼吁重新评估该国防御能力。一些分析人士表示，此次演习可能是对澳大利亚海军频繁在中国声称拥有主权的南海航行的回应。也有人则表示，中国可能是在试探特朗普阵营对如此接近美国最信任的盟友之一的武力展示有何反应。 澳大利亚海军舰艇上的学员。最近，一支中国海军舰队绕澳大利亚航行并进行实弹演习，引起了澳大利亚的警觉。 “Beijing may be trying to see what it can get away with,” hoping to establish a new norm for its operations in the region, said Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “I suppose one calculation is that if the United States is ineffective or paralyzed, the other actors are unable to do much on their own.” 新加坡国立大学政治学副教授庄嘉颖说，“北京可能是想试探底线，”希望为其在该地区的行动建立一种新的规范。“我认为，它的一种考量是，如果美国无能为力或陷入瘫痪，其他国家只依靠自身，就做不了太多事情。” China has taken a similar hard-and-soft approach with South Korea and Vietnam. Its trade with Vietnam is flourishing, and it has indicated that it might soon lift an unofficial ban on K-pop entertainment from South Korea. 中国对韩国和越南也采取了类似的软硬兼施的方式。中国与越南的贸易正在蓬勃发展，中国还表示可能很快就会解除对韩流娱乐的非正式禁令。 But China held live-fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin last month after Vietnam pressed territorial claims in those waters. And it deployed its coast guard near South Korea last week after a Korean vessel tried to inspect Chinese-built steel structures in the area. (South Korea lodged an official protest with Beijing over that incident.) 但在越南对北部湾提出领土主张后，中国上月在该海域举行了实弹演习。上周，在一艘韩国船只试图检查该地区中国建造的钢结构建筑后，中国在韩国附近部署了海警。（韩国就此事件向北京方面提出了正式抗议。） Such assertive behavior is a reminder that despite the changing geopolitical currents, China remains committed to one of its primary goals, which is to become the dominant power in the Asia-Pacific region, said Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy think tank in Sydney. 悉尼外交政策智库洛伊研究所东亚问题高级研究员理查德·麦格雷戈说，这种强势的行为提醒人们，尽管地缘政治趋势在变化，中国仍然致力于实现其主要目标之一，即成为亚太地区的主导力量。 “The waters near Japan, in the South China Sea and around Australia are all in a way parts of an indivisible theater of Chinese interests,” he said. “They are going to pursue those goals whatever the ups and downs with the U.S. are. The Chinese also calculate they can do both at the same time. They are embracing while fighting.” “在某种程度上，日本附近海域、南海，以及澳大利亚周边海域都是中国利益不可分割的一部分，”他说。“无论与美国的关系如何起伏，中国都将追求这些目标。中国人也认为他们可以同时做到这两点。他们软硬兼施。” Japan’s relationship with China embodies those contradictions. 日本与中国的关系体现了这些矛盾。 The two countries’ ties have thawed in recent months. In January, the Chinese Communist Party’s diplomatic arm held talks with Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party for the first time in years. Both nations have loosened visa rules for each other’s tourists, and China has muted its objections to Japan’s release of treated radioactive water from the ruined Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. 最近几个月，两国关系有所缓和。今年1月，中国共产党的外交机构与日本执政党自民党举行了几年来的首次会谈。两国都放松了对对方游客的签证规定，中国对日本从受损的福岛第一核电站释放经处理的放射性水的反对也有所缓和。 Yet tensions persist. This month, Japan said it was considering putting long-range missiles on its southwestern island of Kyushu. Those missiles could target China’s forces if it tried to invade Taiwan, the de facto independent island claimed by Beijing. 但紧张气氛依然存在。本月，日本表示正在考虑在其西南部的九州岛部署远程导弹。如果中国试图入侵台湾，这些导弹就可以打击中国军队。 周五，日本和中国的船只在争议水域开始了持续近四天的对峙。 Meanwhile, Japan says China has been sending more and more ships into waters near the Senkaku islands, which Japan controls, in what Japanese analysts call a strategy to slowly ratchet up challenges to the status quo. 与此同时，日本称中国一直在向日本控制的尖阁诸岛附近海域派遣越来越多的船只，日本分析人士称，这是中国在慢慢加大对现状的挑战。 The latest incursion started before dawn on Friday, when two Chinese Coast Guard ships entered territorial waters around the islet of Minamikojima, apparently chasing a much smaller Japanese fishing boat. Japan’s coast guard said it sent ships to head off the Chinese vessels. 最近的一次侵犯始于周五黎明前，两艘中国海警船进入南小岛附近领海，显然是在追赶一艘小得多的日本渔船。日本海上保安厅表示，已派出船只阻止中国船只。 The Japanese ships protected the fishing boat while demanding that the Chinese withdraw. The Chinese refused, beginning a 92-hour standoff in which the ships sailed side by side, each crew shouting claims to the islands at the other. At one point, two more Chinese ships briefly joined the fray. 日本船只保护渔船，同时要求中方撤离。中方对这一要求予以拒绝，双方开始了长达92小时的对峙，双方船只并排航行，两方船员都向对方大声宣称对该岛屿拥有主权。另有两艘中国船只一度加入其中。 Japan’s coast guard said it finally “forced the Chinese Coast Guard ships to withdraw” late on Monday evening. It said China’s longest previous incursion, in 2023, had lasted almost 81 hours. 日本海上保安厅表示，它最终在周一晚间“迫使中国海警船撤离”。报告称，中国此前最长的一次侵入发生在2023年，持续了近81个小时。 A former Japanese Coast Guard commander, Atsushi Tohyama, called the recent incursion part of a strategy of attrition that began in 2010, when a Chinese fishing trawler rammed a Japanese Coast Guard ship near the Senkakus. 前日本海上保安厅指挥官远山纯司称，最近的这次侵犯是始于2010年的消耗战略的一部分，当时一艘中国拖网渔船在尖阁群岛附近撞击了一艘日本海上保安厅船只。 “They appear to have been provoked by the fishing boat,” Mr. Tohyama said of the Chinese ships involved in the latest standoff. “From what I’ve been told, the fishing boat stayed in waters around the island longer than usual, and the Chinese retaliated in kind.” “他们似乎受到了渔船的挑衅，”远山在谈到卷入最新对峙的中国船只时说。“据我所知，这艘渔船在该岛周围海域停留的时间比平时长，中方做出了相应的报复。” “In a dispute like this, even the act of fishing becomes a declaration of sovereignty,” Mr. Tohyama said. 远山说，“在这样的争端中，即使是捕鱼的行为也会成为主权的宣示。” Berry Wang自香港对本文有报道贡献。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Martin Fackler是《纽约时报》东京分社代理社长。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Hisako Ueno是驻东京的记者/研究员，报道日本的政治、商业、劳工、性别和文化相关新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
NOAH SHACHTMAN2025年3月27日 Andy Sacks/Getty Images If you’re running the security directorate of a hostile nation, savor this moment. It’s never been easier to steal secrets from the United States government. Can you even call it stealing when it’s this simple? The Trump administration has unlocked the vault doors, fired half of the security guards and asked the rest to roll pennies. Walk right in. Take what you want. This is the golden age. 如果你是敌对国家的安全机构负责人，好好享受这一刻吧。从美国政府偷取机密从来没有这么容易过。这么简单的事，你还能管它叫偷吗？特朗普政府打开了金库大门，解雇了一半的保安，让剩下的人去数硬币。直接走进去。想要什么就拿什么。这是个黄金时代。 In its first two months, the Trump administration has made move after move that exposes the government to penetration by foreign intelligence services. It’s not just the group chat about forthcoming military strikes that The Atlantic revealed on Monday — although that was, to be clear, as audacious and ridiculous a security breach as there has been in decades. The administration short-circuited the process for conducting background checks on top officials, turned tens of thousands of people with access to government secrets into disgruntled ex-employees and announced it was lowering its guard against covert foreign influence operations. It installed one of Elon Musk’s satellite internet terminals on the roof of the White House, seemingly to bypass security controls, and gave access to some of the government’s more sensitive systems to a teenager with a history of aiding a cybercrime ring, who goes by the nickname Big Balls. 在最初两个月里，特朗普政府做出了一个又一个举动，使政府暴露于外国情报机构的渗透。《大西洋》周一披露的在群聊中讨论即将到来的军事打击只是其一，尽管要明确的是，这是几十年来最鲁莽、最荒谬的安全漏洞。政府缩短了对高级官员进行背景调查的程序、将数万名可以接触政府机密的人变成心怀不满的前雇员，并宣布降低对外国秘密影响行动的警惕。它在白宫屋顶上安装了埃隆·马斯克的卫星互联网终端，似乎绕过了安全管理措施，还让一名有协助网络犯罪团伙前科的少年（绰号“Big Balls”）访问政府的一些格外敏感的系统。 In his first term, President Trump caused an uproar by revealing intelligence to the Russian ambassador that was routinely withheld from America’s actual allies. This is something different: the erosion of America’s ability to keep any secrets at all. The second Trump administration is treating security like just another stale Washington convention, an annoying impediment to its ambitions to move fast, break the bureaucratic state and replace it with an all-powerful executive. The bros in tech and finance don’t have to deal with these creaky, fussy restraints. Why should the White House? 在他的第一个任期内，特朗普总统向俄罗斯大使透露了一些通常对美国的盟友都保密的情报，引起了轩然大波。这一次又有所不同：美国保守任何秘密的能力正在削弱。特朗普第二任政府将安全问题视为又一套华盛顿陈规，非常烦人，阻碍了它快速行动，打破官僚体制，用一个无往不利的行政机构取而代之。科技和金融领域的兄弟们不需要处理这些陈旧、繁琐的限制。白宫为什么要处理这些？ Major adversaries pray for this level of chaos, confusion and opportunity. A secretive Chinese network is trying to recruit fired U.S. government workers. The Naval Criminal Investigative Service states with “high confidence” that foreign adversaries are trying to “capitalize” on the Trump administration’s mass layoffs. But the Chinese Ministry of State Security or the Russian Main Intelligence Directorate aren’t the only ones who stand to profit from the Trump administration’s disregard for even minimal operational security. Intelligence gathering has become easier for everyone. 我们的主要敌人盼望的就是这种程度的混乱、混淆和机会。一个秘密的中国网络正试图招募被解雇的美国政府工作人员。美国海军刑事调查局表示，“高度确信”外国对手正试图“利用”特朗普政府的大规模裁员。但是，特朗普政府无视哪怕最低限度的行动安全，从中获利的不仅是中国国家安全部或俄罗斯对外情报局。情报收集对所有人来说都变得更容易了。 So-called zero-click spyware is now sold to regimes and corporations around the globe. Apple has notified users in 150 countries that they’ve been targeted. A program from a single Israeli spyware maker, the NSO Group, has been deployed in Saudi Arabia, Spain, Hungary, India, Mexico and Rwanda. “Now the junior varsity countries can come in and succeed,” Frank Figliuzzi, the F.B.I.’s former assistant director for counterintelligence, told me. “You don’t need to be very sophisticated.” 所谓的“零点击”间谍软件现在被卖给世界各地的政权和公司。苹果通知150个国家的用户，他们已成为了攻击目标。一个由以色列间谍软件制造商NSO集团开发的程序已经被部署在沙特阿拉伯、西班牙、匈牙利、印度、墨西哥和卢旺达。“如今随便什么国家都可以进来，并且取得成功，”前联邦调查局反情报助理局长弗兰克·菲格里齐告诉我。“根本用不着什么水平。” This should be the time to batten down the hatches. But the Trump administration has other priorities. Around 1,000 F.B.I. agents have been diverted from their regular duties to scrub the case files of Jeffrey Epstein. (Even in New York City — a hotbed of foreign intelligence activity — the F.B.I. field office is “all hands on deck” on the Epstein review.) Meanwhile, the Justice Department stopped its investigations into the possible compromise of New York City’s Mayor Eric Adams by foreign governments. A seven-agency effort to counter Russian sabotage and cyberattacks has been put on hold. Personnel from the bureau’s counterterrorism division have been newly asked to pursue those who vandalize Teslas, while the new Joint Task Force Oct. 7 investigates “illegal support of Hamas on our campuses.” 现在本应该是严阵以待的时候。但特朗普政府还有其他优先事项。大约1000名联邦调查局探员被调离日常工作，去处理杰弗里·爱泼斯坦案的卷宗。（即便是在外国情报活动的温床纽约市，联邦调查局外勤办公室也在“全员投入”处理爱泼斯坦的案卷审查。）与此同时，司法部停止了对纽约市市长埃里克·亚当斯可能被外国政府利用的调查。七部门联合对抗俄罗斯破坏和网络攻击的努力已被搁置。联邦调查局反恐部门的人员最近被要求追查那些恶意破坏特斯拉的人，而新成立的“10月7日联合专案组”将负责调查“在我们的校园里非法支持哈马斯”的情况。 As for that mortifying incident in which a journalist was invited into a supposedly super-triple-extra-confidential conversation with top military and intelligence leaders, it’s hard to know what’s worse: not being aware who was in the group chat or conducting the chat on mobile phones. The participants — the intended participants, anyway — may have thought they were safe because their texts were encrypted by the Signal messaging app, prized by the secrecy-minded all over the world. A chat, however, is only as secure as the people using it. Just a few days ago, the Pentagon issued a warning that Russian hackers were tricking people into letting them join their Signal group texts. Steve Witkoff, a special envoy, accepted an invitation to join a chat anyway — and he did it from Moscow. Mr. Witkoff has since said that he was using a secure, government-issued device. But there’s no way to make a phone completely unhackable. In SCIFs, the secure rooms where Washington officials conduct their most sensitive conversations, phones aren’t even allowed in the door. 至于这次令人难堪的事件——一名记者被邀请参加一场据称是超级机密的、军方和情报部门最高领导人之间的谈话，不知道哪种情况更糟糕：是不知道有谁在群聊里，还是这些人在用手机聊天。参与的人——至少是那些他们知道的参与者——可能认为他们是安全的，因为他们的消息是由Signal应用加密的，这个应用受到全世界有保密意识的人的青睐。然而，聊天的安全性取决于使用它的人。就在几天前，五角大楼发布警告称，俄罗斯黑客正在欺骗人们加入他们的Signal群聊，但中东特使史蒂夫·维特科夫还是接受了群聊邀请——而且是在莫斯科。维特科夫后来表示，他使用的是政府发放的安全设备。但是没有办法让手机完全不被黑客攻击。华盛顿官员进行最敏感谈话的安全房间——敏感情报隔绝设施(SCIF)——甚至不允许带入手机。 The people at the center of Signalgate — the national security adviser, Michael Waltz; the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth; the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard; to name a few — all know this. They all served in the military. They no doubt heard innumerable lectures from counterintelligence experts about all the different ways an adversary can make off with sensitive data. But this is an administration that actively, proudly rejects expertise. It casts those who have it as the corrupt old guard, the real enemy, the “deep state,” and it touts its own refusal to heed them as proof of its legitimacy and righteousness. By that view, the security establishment must be bent to the White House’s will, and if the people at the top don’t have the traditional qualifications for their positions, all the better. This is an administration that makes a weekend Fox News host the leader of the world’s largest military, puts a conspiracy-minded podcaster in charge of the F.B.I., and has at its pinnacle a reality star turned president. Blunders like this are an inevitable consequence. “群聊门”的核心人物——比方说，国家安全顾问迈克尔·瓦尔兹；国防部长皮特·海格塞斯；国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德——都知道这些。他们都曾在军队服役。毫无疑问，他们听过反情报专家无数次介绍对手窃取敏感数据的各种不同方式。但这是一个积极、骄傲地拒绝专业素养的政府。它把那些拥有专业素养的人描绘成腐败的老古董、真正的敌人、“深层势力”，并宣称自己拒绝听取他们的意见是一种正当和正直的表现。按照这种观点，安全机构必须屈从于白宫的意愿，如果高层人士不具备传统意义上的任职资格，那就更好了。这届政府让福克斯新闻的周末主持人成为世界上最大军队的领导人，让一个充满阴谋论思想的播客主播负责联邦调查局，最厉害的是，让一个真人秀明星成为总统。像这样的失误是不可避免的结果。 “Of course they have their WhatsApp groups and their Signal groups,” Matt Tait told me. Mr. Tait is a well-connected cybersecurity consultant and a former analyst at GCHQ, the British signals intelligence service. “Fundamentally, they don’t really trust the civil service that are working for them, and don’t really see any of the constraints that traditionally people would follow as applying to them at all.” “他们当然有自己的WhatsApp群和Signal群，”人脉广泛的网络安全顾问、曾在英国信号情报机构政府通信总部担任分析师的马特·泰特告诉我。“从根本上说，他们并不真正信任为他们工作的公务员，也不认为传统上人们会遵循的任何约束都适用于他们。” In the coming days the administration’s defenders may note, correctly, that much of what the federal government stamps secret barely qualifies as sensitive, and that administrations going back 20 years or more have used their personal devices to talk war and peace. But that does nothing to excuse the recent gaffe, which is why those involved are trying to distract us with claims that fall just this side of comedy. Mr. Waltz suggested that Jeffrey Goldberg, the journalist who was invited to the war planning chat, might have hacked his way in, as if that would make the security concerns better, not worse. Ms. Gabbard claimed the texts exchanged by the group — detailing the targets, timing and weapons system used in an ongoing U.S. attack — were somehow not classified at all, and therefore no secrets had really leaked. 在接下来的日子里，政府的辩护者可能会正确地指出，联邦政府贴上机密标签的许多事情几乎不能算作敏感，而且20多年来，政府一直在用他们的个人设备谈论战争与和平。但这并不能为最近的丢人现眼开脱，这就是为什么相关人士试图用滑稽可笑的说法来转移我们的注意力。瓦尔兹暗示，被邀请参加战争计划讨论的记者杰弗里·戈德堡可能是靠黑客手段进入群组，似乎这样做会减轻而不是加重安全担忧。加巴德声称，该小组聊的内容——详细说明了美国正在进行的袭击的目标、时间和武器系统——在某种程度上根本不是机密，因此没有真正的秘密泄露。 So if you’re running a foreign intelligence service, relax. You’ve got time. This fiasco could’ve been a wake-up call to the Trump team, an opportunity to overhaul their security procedures and maybe stop courting disaster on quite so many fronts. This administration has decided to go hard in the other direction. “Nobody’s texting war plans,” Mr. Hesgeth told reporters, after being exposed for doing just that. “I know exactly what I’m doing.” 所以，如果你在管理一个外国情报机构，放轻松。你还有时间。这次出丑本可以给特朗普团队敲响警钟，给他们提供一个彻底改革安全程序的机会，或许可以停止在这么多方面制造灾难。然而本届政府决定朝着另一个方向努力。“没人用聊天软件发战争计划，”海格赛斯在被曝光使用聊天软件发战争计划后对记者说。“我很清楚自己在做什么。” Noah Shachtman曾在伊拉克、阿富汗和俄罗斯为《连线》杂志进行报道。他之前曾担任《滚石》杂志和《每日野兽》杂志主编。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
CEYLAN YEGINSU2025年3月27日大峡谷国家公园等美国国家公园吸引了许多外国游客。有些人担心最近的政府支出削减会影响他们的游览体验。 Brandon Bell/Getty Images International tourists detained at U.S. borders. Steep tariffs imposed on trade partners. Threats against longtime allies. 在美国边境拘留国际游客。对贸易伙伴征收高额关税。威胁对长期盟友采取行动。 The onslaught of contested policies and language by the Trump administration in recent weeks is causing tourists around the globe to either cancel or reconsider travel to the United States. A growing number of visitors say they feel unwelcome or unsafe and are reluctant to support the economy of a country that some foreign officials say is waging trade wars and destabilizing its allies. A draft of a new travel ban circulating through the administration could restrict citizens from up to 43 countries, including Belarus, Cambodia and St. Lucia, from entering the United States. 特朗普政府在最近几周的政策和言辞引发争议，导致全球游客纷纷取消或重新考虑前往美国的计划。越来越多的游客表示，他们感到不受欢迎或不安全，并且不愿支持一个一些外国官员认为正在进行贸易战并破坏盟友稳定的国家的经济。政府内部流传的一份草拟的新旅行禁令可能限制来自43个国家的公民进入美国，其中包括白俄罗斯、柬埔寨和圣卢西亚。 “So many Americans are looking to escape the tense and toxic atmosphere at home. Why would anyone want to visit, especially right now with all the arbitrary detentions at immigration?” said Mallory Henderson, 53, a marketing consultant in London who usually visits the United States twice a year, but canceled a trip to visit her brother and niece in Boston this Easter. “这么多美国人都想逃离国内紧张和有毒的氛围。怎么还会有人想来，尤其是现在移民局任意拘留的情况下？”53岁的伦敦营销顾问马洛里·亨德森说道。她通常每年访问美国两次，但取消了今年复活节前往波士顿探望兄弟和侄女的行程。 “It’s a really hostile and scary time, and quite frankly, there’s plenty of other inviting and pleasant places I can go to meet up with my family,” she said. 她说：“这真是一个充满敌意和可怕的时刻，坦率地说，我可以去很多其他诱人和令人愉快的地方和家人团聚。” Even before the change in administration in January, the U.S. travel industry was struggling to recover from the pandemic, mainly because of the strength of the dollar, which makes it more expensive for foreign travelers to visit, and long visa wait times. Inbound international visitor numbers were not expected to reach 2019 levels until later this year and foreign visitor spending is not projected to fully recover until 2026, according to the U.S. Travel Association. 即使在1月政府换届之前，美国旅游业就已经苦于难以在疫情后恢复过来，主要原因是美元走强导致外国游客的旅游成本增加，以及签证等待时间过长。据美国旅游协会称，入境国际游客人数预计要到今年晚些时候才能达到2019年的水平，外国游客的消费预计要到2026年才能完全恢复。 But those expectations may now be even harder to reach, travel experts say. 但旅游专家称，这些期望现在可能更难实现了。 The research firm Tourism Economics had originally forecast travel to the United States to grow by 9 percent this year, but in February, it updated its outlook, expecting inbound travel to decline by 5.1 percent and hotel demand to decline by 0.8 percent in 2025 — the equivalent of an $18 billion drop in spending. Much of the decline is the result of a boycott by Canadian travelers. In February, after President Trump announced tariffs on Canada, the number of Canadians driving across the border fell by 24 percent compared with the same period in 2024. 旅游经济研究公司最初预测今年赴美旅游将增长9%，但今年2月，该公司更新了其展望，预计2025年入境旅游将下降5.1%，酒店需求将下降0.8%——相当于减少180亿美元的消费。下降的主要原因是加拿大游客的抵制。今年2月，在特朗普总统宣布对加拿大征收关税后，驾车过境的加拿大人数量与2024年同期相比下降了24%。 Airlines are responding to the uncertainty. Some, including Delta Air Lines and American Airlines, cut their financial forecasts for the first few months of the year, citing softness in travel spending. Scott Kirby, the chief executive of United Airlines, said the carrier had reduced the frequency of numerous routes to Canada because of a “big drop in Canadian traffic” into the United States. 航空公司正在应对这种不确定性。包括达美航空和美国航空在内的一些航空公司下调了今年头几个月的财务预期，理由是旅游支出疲软。美国联合航空公司首席执行官斯科特·柯比说，由于加拿大飞往美国的客流量“大幅下降”，该公司已经减少了飞往加拿大的多条航线的班次。 “The negative sentiment shift is anticipated to be sustained by an evolving mix of Trump administration factors, including geopolitical friction on trade and national security policies, charged rhetoric and adversarial posturing,” said Adam Sacks, the president of Tourism Economics. 旅游经济公司总裁亚当·萨克斯表示：“特朗普政府的各种因素不断变化，包括贸易和国家安全政策方面的地缘政治摩擦、激烈的言论和敌对姿态，预计负面情绪的转变将持续下去。” ‘It Does Not Feel Right’ “感觉不太对” Travel operators in Europe have not yet reported large waves of cancellations on the scale of Canada, where many residents are boycotting travel to the United States, but a growing number of travelers are rethinking their spring and summer plans. Eric Dresin, the secretary general of the European Travel Agents’ and Tour Operators’ Associations, said “turbulent times” are expected, particularly if more countries are affected by U.S. policy changes. 欧洲的旅行社尚未报告像加拿大那样大规模的行程取消潮，后者的许多居民正在抵制前往美国旅行，但越来越多的欧洲旅行者正在重新考虑他们的春夏季计划。欧洲旅行社和旅游经营者协会秘书长埃里克·德雷辛说，预计将出现“动荡时期”，尤其是如果更多国家受到美国政策变化的影响的话。 Arrivals into the United States from Western Europe fell by one percent in February after increasing by 14 percent the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office. 美国国家旅行和旅游局的初步数据显示，从西欧抵达美国的游客人数在今年2月下降了1%，而去年同期则增长了14%。 搭乘连接皇后区贾马伊卡和肯尼迪国际机场的AirTrain专线来到纽约市的旅客。一些纽约企业担心加拿大和欧洲游客数量可能会减少。 Christoph Bartel, 28, a German citizen who lives in Norway, had planned a trip to Arizona this summer to visit national parks. He canceled his plans last week in response to the Trump administration’s firing of national park employees and reversal of environmental regulations. 28岁的克里斯托夫·巴特尔是居住在挪威的德国公民，他原计划今年夏天前往亚利桑那州游览国家公园。由于特朗普政府解雇国家公园员工并撤销环境监管，他上周取消了行程。 “It does not feel right to support the American economy when the president is causing so much sabotage,” Mr. Bartel said. “It is disappointing to abandon a special trip we planned for months, but we will go to Canada or Mexico instead.” “在总统大搞破坏的情况下，这种时候去支持美国经济，感觉不太对，”他说。“放弃计划了几个月的特别旅行令人失望，但我们将改去加拿大或墨西哥。” After Canada and Mexico, Britain supplies the largest number of visitors to the United States, with nearly four million last year. Travel agencies are seeing a split among those clients who frequently visit the United States and are not being deterred by the political climate, and those who are looking for alternative destinations in response to the policy changes. 在加拿大和墨西哥之后，英国是向美国输送游客最多的国家，去年接近400万人次。旅行社发现，常去美国的客户中出现了一种分化，一部分并未受到政治气候的影响，继续前往美国，而另一部分则因为政策变化而寻求其他目的地。 The sheer expense of visiting the United States in the wake of the pandemic also appears to be taking a toll. 疫情过后，访美旅行的支出总体上似乎也受到了冲击。 “America was always thought of as a really good value,” said Alan Wilson, the managing director of Bon Voyage Travel & Tours, a British company specializing in trips to the United States and Canada. Along with the strength of the dollar, prices of hotels have also been going up, and steep tips are a problem for many visitors. “美国过去一直被认为是性价比高的目的地，”一家专门从事美国和加拿大旅游的英国公司Bon Voyage Travel & Tours的总经理艾伦·威尔逊说。随着美元走强，酒店价格也不断上涨，而且昂贵的小费成为了许多游客的困扰。 “The British market absolutely hates the 20 percent tipping culture and how America always has its hand held out for the next gratuity,” he said. “They would rather pay the money up front.” “英国市场非常厌恶20%的小费文化，厌恶美国总是一遍又一遍伸出手来要求打赏，”他说。“他们宁愿一开始就支付所有费用。” The Crunch Is Hurting 游客的减少正带来伤害 In places like New York, Florida and California, the crunch is being felt by small travel businesses, which were optimistic that 2025 would bring growth. Luke Miller, the owner of the family-run company Real New York Tours, said his business was being decimated after droves of mainly Canadian visitors canceled following Mr. Trump’s announcement on tariffs. 在纽约、佛罗里达和加利福尼亚等地，游客的减少正在影响小型旅行企业，这些企业曾乐观地认为2025年将带来增长。家族企业“纯正纽约之旅”的老板卢克·米勒说，特朗普宣布加征关税后，大批以加拿大游客为主的旅行团取消了行程，他的生意因此一落千丈。 “I just had 20 busloads of seniors cancel their upcoming tours. That’s thousands of dollars of losses for my small business,” Mr. Miller said, adding that he is receiving cancellations as far out as the winter holiday season and has no bookings from Europeans this summer, his second biggest market after Canada. He called the situation “heart-wrenching.” “刚刚有20辆大巴车的老年人取消了他们的行程，这对我的小生意来说意味着几千几万的损失，”米勒说，他还说，他已经收到了甚至远到冬季节日的取消，而且今年夏天没有来自欧洲的预订，那是仅次于加拿大的第二大市场。他称眼下的情形“令人痛心”。 Major destinations like New York and California are ramping up marketing efforts to reassure international tourists that they are welcome. Visit California, the state’s tourism agency, revised its overall projections for 2025 visitor spending this month to $160 billion from $166 billion, following the slowdown in the growth of international travelers and the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles in January. 纽约和加利福尼亚等主要旅游目的地正在加大营销力度，向国际游客保证他们是受欢迎的。在国际游客增长放缓以及1月洛杉矶发生毁灭性野火之后，加利福尼亚州官方旅游机构“探访加利福尼亚”将2025年游客消费的整体预期从1660亿美元下调至1600亿美元。 圣地亚哥市中心的景色。美国的一些旅游目的地在加大宣传力度，希望让游客看到它们开门迎客的热情，加州就是其中之一。 “The good news is, thanks to California’s strong brand on the global stage, international visitors continue to show a strong affinity for the Golden State,” Caroline Beteta, the agency’s president, said in a statement. 该机构总裁卡罗琳·贝特塔在一份声明中表示：“好消息是，得益于本州在全球舞台上的良好品牌形象，国际游客继续对金州表现出强烈的好感。” New York has had similar messaging. Addressing the expense of visiting the city, Julie Coker, the president of New York City Tourism+ Conventions, said it was possible to visit on a budget, and the marketing organization would highlight those opportunities. 纽约也发出了类似的信息。在谈到游览纽约的费用问题时，纽约市旅游+会展公司总裁朱莉·科克尔说，预算有限也可来纽约玩，该营销机构将强调这些机会。 “This is an excellent opportunity to highlight the other boroughs and parts of New York City outside of Manhattan that are just as vibrant and have amazing, award-winning culinary, arts and cultural experiences,” she said, adding that New York had faced obstacles before and is confident that it will be able to reach its goal of recovering international spending by 2026 despite the current challenges. “这是一个绝佳的机会，可以凸显纽约市曼哈顿以外的其他地区，它们同样充满活力，拥有令人惊叹、屡获殊荣的美食、艺术和文化体验，”她说，此外她还说，纽约也曾面临过困难，尽管现在有一些挑战，但纽约有信心到2026年实现恢复国际游客消费的目标。 Mr. Miller of Real New York Tours is not convinced. He said that if bookings did not pick up this summer, he would have to consider laying off staff. “纯正纽约之旅”的米勒对此不以为然。他说，如果今年夏天的预订量没有增加，他将不得不考虑裁员。 “The reality is that we are being hit the hardest and might not survive,” he said. 他说：“现实情况是，我们受到的冲击最大，可能会撑不下去。” Christine Chung对本文有报道贡献。 翻译：Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。
CHARLES DUHIGG, KEITH BRADSHER2012年1月22日2010年中国河南省的一个工作招聘会上，应聘者蜂拥在富士康科技公司的展台前。 Donald Chan/Reuters When Barack Obama joined Silicon Valley’s top luminaries for dinner in California last February, each guest was asked to come with a question for the president. 去年2月 ，巴拉克·奥巴马在加州与硅谷的各位顶尖名人共进晚餐。按照这次晚宴的规矩，每位客人都得向总统提一个问题。 在中国，林丽娜（音）是PCH International的一个项目经理。该公司和苹果签有合同。"有很多工作机会，"她说。“特别是在深圳。” But as Steven P. Jobs of Apple spoke, President Obama interrupted with an inquiry of his own: what would it take to make iPhones in the United States? 然而，轮到苹果公司的史蒂芬·P·乔布斯(Steven P. Jobs)说话的时候，奥巴马总统却用自己的问题打断了他：要在美国生产iPhone的话，需要满足什么样的条件呢？ Not long ago, Apple boasted that its products were made in America. Today, few are. Almost all of the 70 million iPhones, 30 million iPads and 59 million other products Apple sold last year were manufactured overseas. 没多久之前，苹果公司还吹嘘自己的产品都是“美国制造”。今天，美国制造的苹果产品已经少之又少。苹果公司去年售出了7000万部iPhone、3000万台iPad和5900万台其他产品，这些产品几乎都是在海外制造的。 Why can’t that work come home? Mr. Obama asked. 干嘛不把这些工作拿回来做呢？奥巴马先生问道。 Mr. Jobs’s reply was unambiguous. “Those jobs aren’t coming back,” he said, according to another dinner guest. 乔布斯先生的回答毫不含糊。按照另一位在座嘉宾的说法，乔布斯的回答是：“这些工作是不会回来的。” The president’s question touched upon a central conviction at Apple. It isn’t just that workers are cheaper abroad. Rather, Apple’s executives believe the vast scale of overseas factories as well as the flexibility, diligence and industrial skills of foreign workers have so outpaced their American counterparts that “Made in the U.S.A.” is no longer a viable option for most Apple products. 总统的问题触及了苹果公司的一个核心信念。苹果的做法不光是因为外国工人比较便宜。更重要的是，苹果公司管理层认为，外国工厂的巨大规模，以及外国工人的灵活性、勤勉精神和工业技能，全都远远地超过了美国同侪。这样一来，对于大多数的苹果产品来说，“美国制造”已经不再是一个可行的选择。 Apple has become one of the best-known, most admired and most imitated companies on earth, in part through an unrelenting mastery of global operations. Last year, it earned over $400,000 in profit per employee, more than Goldman Sachs, Exxon Mobil or Google. 苹果公司已经成为全球最知名、最受人崇敬、最多人仿效的企业之一，原因之一就是它毫不手软地实施着高水平的全球运作。去年，苹果公司员工创造的人均利润超过了40万美元，令高盛(Goldman Sachs)、埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)和谷歌(Google)相形见绌。 However, what has vexed Mr. Obama as well as economists and policy makers is that Apple — and many of its high-technology peers — are not nearly as avid in creating American jobs as other famous companies were in their heydays. 然而，让奥巴马先生、各位经济学家和各位决策人士着恼的是，说到为美国创造工作机会的问题，苹果公司跟它的许多高科技同行一样，远不像其他一些鼎盛时期的著名公司那么热心。 Apple employs 43,000 people in the United States and 20,000 overseas, a small fraction of the over 400,000 American workers at General Motors in the 1950s, or the hundreds of thousands at General Electric in the 1980s. Many more people work for Apple’s contractors: an additional 700,000 people engineer, build and assemble iPads, iPhones and Apple’s other products. But almost none of them work in the United States. Instead, they work for foreign companies in Asia, Europe and elsewhere, at factories that almost all electronics designers rely upon to build their wares. 苹果公司在美国有四万三千名雇员，并有两万名海外雇员。20世纪50年代的通用汽车公司(General Motors)雇用了超过40万美国工人，20世纪80年代的通用电气(General Electric)也拥有数十万美国员工，与之相比，苹果公司的员工数目只是一个零头。为苹果的外包商打工的人却要比这多得多：苹果员工之外，另有70万人在设计、制造和组装iPad、iPhone和其他苹果产品。不过，这些人的工作地点几乎都不在美国。恰恰相反，他们的雇主是亚洲、欧洲和其他地方的外国公司，几乎所有的电子产品设计商都要靠他们服务的厂家来制造产品。 “Apple’s an example of why it’s so hard to create middle-class jobs in the U.S. now,” said Jared Bernstein, who until last year was an economic adviser to the White House.“If it’s the pinnacle of capitalism, we should be worried.” 直到去年还在担任白宫经济顾问的杰瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)说，“今天的美国很难创造出适合中产阶级的工作机会，苹果公司的做法就可以说明原因何在。如果说苹果公司代表着资本主义巅峰状态的话，我们就该担惊受怕了。” Apple executives say that going overseas, at this point, is their only option. One former executive described how the company relied upon a Chinese factory to revamp iPhone manufacturing just weeks before the device was due on shelves. Apple had redesigned the iPhone’s screen at the last minute, forcing an assembly line overhaul. New screens began arriving at the plant near midnight. 苹果管理层宣称，走向海外是他们在目前阶段的惟一选择。按照一位前苹果管理人员的讲述，离iPhone预定上架日期只有数周的时候，苹果公司靠一家中国工厂帮忙才完成了生产计划。原因在于苹果公司临时改变了iPhone屏幕的设计，不得不对装配线进行全面调整。将近午夜的时候，新的屏幕才陆续运抵装配工厂。 A foreman immediately roused 8,000 workers inside the company’s dormitories, according to the executive. Each employee was given a biscuit and a cup of tea, guided to a workstation and within half an hour started a 12-hour shift fitting glass screens into beveled frames. Within 96 hours, the plant was producing over 10,000 iPhones a day. 根据这位管理人员的说法，厂里的一名工头立刻叫醒了公司宿舍里的八千名工人，给每名工人发了一包饼干和一杯茶，吩咐他们前往车间。不到半个钟头，往倾斜放置的手机外壳上安装玻璃屏幕的12小时工作班次宣告开始。不到96个小时，那家工厂就已经在以日产一万多台的速度生产iPhone了。 “The speed and flexibility is breathtaking,” the executive said. “There’s no American plant that can match that.” 这位管理人员说，“那家工厂的速度和灵活性令人咋舌，没有哪家美国工厂能跟它相提并论。” Similar stories could be told about almost any electronics company — and outsourcing has also become common in hundreds of industries, including accounting, legal services, banking, auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals. 几乎所有的电子公司都讲得出类似的故事，“外包”也已经成为数百个行业的通行做法，会计、法律服务、银行、汽车制造和制药行业都是如此。 But while Apple is far from alone, it offers a window into why the success of some prominent companies has not translated into large numbers of domestic jobs. What’s more, the company’s decisions pose broader questions about what corporate America owes Americans as the global and national economies are increasingly intertwined. 苹果公司虽然远远算不上个例，但却为我们提供了一个窗口，我们可以从中窥见，一些杰出公司的成功表现为什么没有衍生大量的国内工作机会。除此之外，这家公司的种种决策还引出了一个更为深广的问题，在全球经济与国内经济日益融合的今天，美国企业对美国国民负有什么样的责任。 “Companies once felt an obligation to support American workers, even when it wasn’t the best financial choice,” said Betsey Stevenson, the chief economist at the Labor Department until last September. “That’s disappeared. Profits and efficiency have trumped generosity.” 直至去年9月还是美国劳工部首席经济学家的贝特西·史蒂文森(Betsey Stevenson)说，“美国公司曾经觉得自己有责任支持美国工人，即便这并不是财务上的最佳选择。这样的观念已然不复存在，利润和效率压倒了慷慨的情操。” Companies and other economists say that notion is naïve. Though Americans are among the most educated workers in the world, the nation has stopped training enough people in the mid-level skills that factories need, executives say. 各家公司以及其他一些经济学家纷纷表示，前述观念实属天真幼稚。公司高管们指出，美国人虽然居于世界上教育程度最高的工人之列，但美国的培训工作已经跟不上形势，再也不能为各家工厂提供足够数量的中等技术工人了。 To thrive, companies argue they need to move work where it can generate enough profits to keep paying for innovation. Doing otherwise risks losing even more American jobs over time, as evidenced by the legions of once-proud domestic manufacturers — including G.M. and others — that have shrunk as nimble competitors have emerged. 各家公司辩称，要想兴旺发达，他们就只能把工作转移到那些利润足以维持不断创新的地方。如其不然，假以时日，美国的工作机会还有进一步减少的风险。例证便是包括通用在内的众多美国制造业巨头，它们曾经豪气干云，后来却纷纷缩水，因为市场上出现了一些身手灵活的竞争者。 Apple was provided with extensive summaries of The New York Times’s reporting for this article, but the company, which has a reputation for secrecy, declined to comment. 《纽约时报》向苹果公司提供了本篇报道的详细纲要，然而，以行事隐秘著称的苹果公司拒绝就此发表评论。 This article is based on interviews with more than three dozen current and former Apple employees and contractors — many of whom requested anonymity to protect their jobs — as well as economists, manufacturing experts, international trade specialists, technology analysts, academic researchers, employees at Apple’s suppliers, competitors and corporate partners, and government officials. 本篇报道基于大量访谈，采访对象包括近40名离职或现职苹果员工及外包商，其中多人都要求隐去姓名，怕的是丢掉工作。此外，报道的采访对象还包括一些经济学家、制造业专家、国际贸易专家、技术分析家、学术研究人员、苹果供应商员工、竞争对手、合作伙伴以及政府官员。 Privately, Apple executives say the world is now such a changed place that it is a mistake to measure a company’s contribution simply by tallying its employees — though they note that Apple employs more workers in the United States than ever before. 苹果公司的一些管理人员私下表示，鉴于世界形势已经急剧改变，仅以员工数目来衡量企业贡献是一种错误的做法。他们同时指出，苹果在美国的工人数目比以往任何时候都要多。 They say Apple’s success has benefited the economy by empowering entrepreneurs and creating jobs at companies like cellular providers and businesses shipping Apple products. And, ultimately, they say curing unemployment is not their job. 他们说，苹果的成功给创业者带来了商机，并在手机运营商以及苹果产品承运人之类的企业里催生了更多的工作机会，由此推动了美国经济。他们还说，说到底，消除失业并不是他们的事情。 “We sell iPhones in over a hundred countries,” a current Apple executive said. “We don’t have an obligation to solve America’s problems. Our only obligation is making the best product possible.” 苹果公司的一位现职管理人员说，“我们在100多个国家销售iPhone，并没有义务解决美国的问题。我们只有一个义务，那就是推出最好的产品。” ‘I Want a Glass Screen’ “我想要玻璃屏幕” In 2007, a little over a month before the iPhone was scheduled to appear in stores, Mr. Jobs beckoned a handful of lieutenants into an office. For weeks, he had been carrying a prototype of the device in his pocket. 2007年，离iPhone预定的上架时间还有一个月出头，乔布斯先生把一小群僚属召进了一间办公室。几个星期以来，他兜里一直都揣着一部iPhone样机。 Mr. Jobs angrily held up his iPhone, angling it so everyone could see the dozens of tiny scratches marring its plastic screen, according to someone who attended the meeting. He then pulled his keys from his jeans. 据一名与会者回忆，乔布斯先生气冲冲地举起了样机，调整着样机的角度，好让大家都看到塑料屏幕上的几十条微小划痕。这之后，他把自己的钥匙从牛仔裤兜里掏了出来。 People will carry this phone in their pocket, he said. People also carry their keys in their pocket. “I won’t sell a product that gets scratched,” he said tensely. The only solution was using unscratchable glass instead. “I want a glass screen, and I want it perfect in six weeks.” 他告诉与会者，人们都会把手机揣在兜里，还会把钥匙装进去。“我不愿意出售会有划痕的产品，”他疾言厉色地说。这一来，惟一的办法便是代之以不会产生划痕的玻璃。“我想要玻璃屏幕，这件事情必须在六周之内办好。” After one executive left that meeting, he booked a flight to Shenzhen, China. If Mr. Jobs wanted perfect, there was nowhere else to go. 与会的一名管理人员走出房间，订了一张去深圳的机票。既然乔布斯先生提出了“办好”的要求，那就只能到深圳去。 For over two years, the company had been working on a project — code-named Purple 2 — that presented the same questions at every turn: how do you completely reimagine the cellphone? And how do you design it at the highest quality — with an unscratchable screen, for instance — while also ensuring that millions can be manufactured quickly and inexpensively enough to earn a significant profit? 两年多的时间里，苹果公司一直在开发这个代号为“紫色2”(Purple 2)的项目，同样的一些问题在项目的每个阶段反复浮现：怎样才能彻底颠覆原有的“手机”概念？怎样才能设计出一款质量最上乘——比如说，带有不会划花的屏幕——的手机，同时确保公司能以足够低廉的成本迅速推出数以百万计的产品、由此赚取丰厚的利润呢？ The answers, almost every time, were found outside the United States. Though components differ between versions, all iPhones contain hundreds of parts, an estimated 90 percent of which are manufactured abroad. Advanced semiconductors have come from Germany and Taiwan, memory from Korea and Japan, display panels and circuitry from Korea and Taiwan, chipsets from Europe and rare metals from Africa and Asia. And all of it is put together in China. 几乎是在每一次讨论当中，问题的答案都出现在美国之外。iPhone的组件虽然因型号而异，所有的iPhone却都包含着数百个零件，在海外生产的零件估计占总数的90%。高科技半导体来自德国和台湾，内存来自韩国和日本，显示屏和电路板来自韩国和台湾，芯片组来自欧洲，稀有金属来自非洲和亚洲，组装的地点则是中国。 In its early days, Apple usually didn’t look beyond its own backyard for manufacturing solutions. A few years after Apple began building the Macintosh in 1983, for instance, Mr. Jobs bragged that it was “a machine that is made in America.” In 1990, while Mr. Jobs was running NeXT, which was eventually bought by Apple, the executive told a reporter that “I’m as proud of the factory as I am of the computer.” As late as 2002, top Apple executives occasionally drove two hours northeast of their headquarters to visit the company’s iMac plant in Elk Grove, Calif. 创业之初，苹果公司通常只会在自家后院里寻找代工厂。举例来说，该公司于1983年推出了个人台式电脑Macintosh，数年之后，乔布斯先生曾经吹嘘它是“真正美国制造的机器”。1990年，乔布斯先生还在打理后来被苹果收购的NeXT公司。当时他曾经告诉一名记者，“我为我们的电脑自豪，同样为我们的工厂自豪。”迟至2002年，苹果公司的高层都还会时不时地开车往总部的东北方向走上两个小时的车，到加州的埃克格鲁夫(Elk Grove)去视察公司的iMac工厂。 But by 2004, Apple had largely turned to foreign manufacturing. Guiding that decision was Apple’s operations expert, Timothy D. Cook, who replaced Mr. Jobs as chief executive last August, six weeks before Mr. Jobs’s death. Most other American electronics companies had already gone abroad, and Apple, which at the time was struggling, felt it had to grasp every advantage. 然而，进入2004年的时候，苹果公司已经把大部分的生产工作转到了国外。主导这一决策的人是苹果公司的运营专家蒂莫西·D·库克(Timothy D. Cook)。去年8月，乔布斯先生去世六周之前，他接替乔布斯先生当上了苹果的首席执行官。2004年的时候，大多数美国电子公司已然转向海外，正在挣扎求生的苹果公司由是认为，自己必须用上所有的有利条件。 In part, Asia was attractive because the semiskilled workers there were cheaper. But that wasn’t driving Apple. For technology companies, the cost of labor is minimal compared with the expense of buying parts and managing supply chains that bring together components and services from hundreds of companies. 亚洲之所以诱人，部分原因是那里的半熟练工人比较便宜。不过，吸引苹果公司的并不是这一点。对于高科技公司来说，支出的大头是零件采购和管理来自数百个公司的组件及服务供应链，与之相较，人力成本可谓微不足道。 For Mr. Cook, the focus on Asia “came down to two things,” said one former high-ranking Apple executive. Factories in Asia “can scale up and down faster” and “Asian supply chains have surpassed what’s in the U.S.” The result is that “we can’t compete at this point,” the executive said. 一名苹果公司前高管说，按照库克先生的看法，聚焦亚洲的决策“可以归结为两个原因”。亚洲的工厂“扩大或缩小规模的速度比较快”，与此同时，“亚洲的供应链也比美国强”。这名前高管说，由此而来的结果就是“在这一阶段，我们没法跟别人竞争”。 The impact of such advantages became obvious as soon as Mr. Jobs demanded glass screens in 2007. 2007年，乔布斯先生提出关于玻璃屏幕的要求之后，上述条件的优越性立刻变得一目了然。 For years, cellphone makers had avoided using glass because it required precision in cutting and grinding that was extremely difficult to achieve. Apple had already selected an American company, Corning Inc., to manufacture large panes of strengthened glass. But figuring out how to cut those panes into millions of iPhone screens required finding an empty cutting plant, hundreds of pieces of glass to use in experiments and an army of midlevel engineers. It would cost a fortune simply to prepare. 多年以来，手机生产商一直不愿意使用玻璃屏幕，因为它需要精确的切割和打磨，达到标准的难度非常之大。苹果公司已经选定美国的康宁公司(Corning Inc.)来生产大块的强化玻璃板。然而，要想把玻璃板切成数以百万计的iPhone屏幕，那就得找到一家空闲的切割工厂、数百块实验用的玻璃板以及一大帮中级技师。光是准备工作就得消耗一大笔资金。 Then a bid for the work arrived from a Chinese factory. 就在这时，一家中国工厂跑来投标，要求承揽这项工作。 When an Apple team visited, the Chinese plant’s owners were already constructing a new wing. “This is in case you give us the contract,” the manager said, according to a former Apple executive. The Chinese government had agreed to underwrite costs for numerous industries, and those subsidies had trickled down to the glass-cutting factory. It had a warehouse filled with glass samples available to Apple, free of charge. The owners made engineers available at almost no cost. They had built on-site dormitories so employees would be available 24 hours a day. 苹果的考察小组赶到那家中国工厂的时候，厂主们已经开始兴建新厂房了。一名前苹果公司管理人员回忆，厂长的解释是，“这是在提前做准备，免得你们的订单让我们措手不及”。此前中国政府已经承诺为许多产业提供成本补贴，那家玻璃切割工厂也从中分了一杯羹。他们有一间装满玻璃样品的仓库，可以向苹果公司提供免费样品。厂主们还答应提供技师，几乎不需要费用。他们已经建起了厂内宿舍，员工可以24小时随叫随到。 The Chinese plant got the job. 那家中国工厂拿到了订单。 “The entire supply chain is in China now,” said another former high-ranking Apple executive. “You need a thousand rubber gaskets? That’s the factory next door. You need a million screws? That factory is a block away. You need that screw made a little bit different? It will take three hours.” 另一名前苹果高管说，“整条供应链如今都在中国。需要1000个橡胶垫圈吗？隔壁就有这样的工厂。需要100万个螺丝钉吗？厂子就在一个街区之外。需要对螺丝钉做一点小小的改动吗？三个小时就可以办到。” In Foxconn City 走进“富士康城” An eight-hour drive from that glass factory is a complex, known informally as Foxconn City, where the iPhone is assembled. To Apple executives, Foxconn City was further evidence that China could deliver workers — and diligence — that outpaced their American counterparts. 距那家玻璃厂8小时车程的地方是一大片俗称“富士康城”(Foxconn City)的建筑，iPhone的装配线就在那里。在苹果管理层看来，富士康城进一步证明了一个事实：中国有能力提供比美国同行更好的工人，勤勉的态度也超过美国。 That’s because nothing like Foxconn City exists in the United States. 原因在于，美国根本找不出像富士康城这样的东西。 The facility has 230,000 employees, many working six days a week, often spending up to 12 hours a day at the plant. Over a quarter of Foxconn’s work force lives in company barracks and many workers earn less than $17 a day. When one Apple executive arrived during a shift change, his car was stuck in a river of employees streaming past. “The scale is unimaginable,” he said. 这片厂区有23万员工，其中许多人都是每周工作6天，一天的工作时间经常会达到12小时。超过四分之一的富士康员工住在公司的宿舍里，许多工人的日薪都不到17美元。一名苹果管理人员曾经在换班的时候进入工厂，他的轿车卡在了川流的员工之中。“这样的规模真是难以想象，”他说。 Foxconn employs nearly 300 guards to direct foot traffic so workers are not crushed in doorway bottlenecks. The facility’s central kitchen cooks an average of three tons of pork and 13 tons of rice a day. While factories are spotless, the air inside nearby teahouses is hazy with the smoke and stench of cigarettes. 富士康雇了将近300名保安来引导步行的人流，免得工人堵在门口的狭窄区域。厂区的主食堂平均每天消耗3吨猪肉和13吨大米。厂房虽然一尘不染，附近的茶馆里却弥漫着烟雾和臭烘烘的烟草味道。 Foxconn Technology has dozens of facilities in Asia and Eastern Europe, and in Mexico and Brazil, and it assembles an estimated 40 percent of the world’s consumer electronics for customers like Amazon, Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Motorola, Nintendo, Nokia, Samsung and Sony. 富士康科技公司(Foxconn Technology)在亚洲、东欧、墨西哥和巴西拥有数十家工厂，组装的电子消费品估计占世界总量的40%，客户都是亚马逊(Amazon)、戴尔(Dell)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard)、摩托罗拉(Motorola)、任天堂(Nintendo)、诺基亚(Nokia)、三星(Samsung)和索尼(Sony)之类的公司。 “They could hire 3,000 people overnight,” said Jennifer Rigoni, who was Apple’s worldwide supply demand manager until 2010, but declined to discuss specifics of her work. “What U.S. plant can find 3,000 people overnight and convince them to live in dorms?” 詹妮弗·瑞格尼(Jennifer Rigoni)担任苹果公司全球供需经理至2010年，但却拒绝谈论自己的工作细节。她说，“他们可以在一夜之间雇来三千人。哪家美国工厂能在一夜之间雇来三千人、说服他们住进宿舍呢？” In mid-2007, after a month of experimentation, Apple’s engineers finally perfected a method for cutting strengthened glass so it could be used in the iPhone’s screen. The first truckloads of cut glass arrived at Foxconn City in the dead of night, according to the former Apple executive. That’s when managers woke thousands of workers, who crawled into their uniforms — white and black shirts for men, red for women — and quickly lined up to assemble, by hand, the phones. Within three months, Apple had sold one million iPhones. Since then, Foxconn has assembled over 200 million more. 2007年中期，做了一个月的实验之后，苹果公司的技师最终拿出了一个完善的办法，可以把强化玻璃板切割成适合iPhone的屏幕。据一名前苹果公司管理人员所说，夜深人静的时候，运送第一批玻璃屏幕的卡车才抵达富士康城。各位工头立刻叫醒了数千名工人，工人手忙脚乱地穿上制服——男制服是黑白衬衫，女制服则是红色——迅速排成队伍，开始手工组装手机。不到三个月，苹果公司就卖出了100万部iPhone。那之后，富士康又组装了超过2亿部iPhone。 Foxconn, in statements, declined to speak about specific clients. 富士康在声明当中拒绝对具体的客户发表意见。 “Any worker recruited by our firm is covered by a clear contract outlining terms and conditions and by Chinese government law that protects their rights,” the company wrote. Foxconn “takes our responsibility to our employees very seriously and we work hard to give our more than one million employees a safe and positive environment.” 该公司在书面声明当中宣称，“本公司招募的所有员工都签有列明各种条款及工作条件的合同，受到中国劳动法的保护。”富士康“认真履行对员工的责任，努力为百万有余的员工提供安全有益的工作环境”。 The company disputed some details of the former Apple executive’s account, and wrote that a midnight shift, such as the one described, was impossible “because we have strict regulations regarding the working hours of our employees based on their designated shifts, and every employee has computerized timecards that would bar them from working at any facility at a time outside of their approved shift.” The company said that all shifts began at either 7 a.m. or 7 p.m., and that employees receive at least 12 hours’ notice of any schedule changes. 富士康对那名前苹果管理人员讲述的一些细节提出了异议，并在书面声明当中指出，所谓的午夜班根本不可能存在，“因为我们为不同班次员工的工作时间制定了严格的规章，所有的员工都有电子计时卡，根本不可能在规定班次之外的时间进厂工作。”公司还说，所有班次要么是从早上7点开始，要么就是从晚上7 点开始，如果有所变更，公司会提前至少12个小时通知员工。 Foxconn employees, in interviews, have challenged those assertions. 接受采访的时候，富士康的员工对公司的说法提出了质疑。 Another critical advantage for Apple was that China provided engineers at a scale the United States could not match. Apple’s executives had estimated that about 8,700 industrial engineers were needed to oversee and guide the 200,000 assembly-line workers eventually involved in manufacturing iPhones. The company’s analysts had forecast it would take as long as nine months to find that many qualified engineers in the United States. 对苹果公司来说，另一个至关重要的有利条件是中国可以提供大量技师，数目令美国望尘莫及。按照苹果管理层之前的估计，生产iPhone最终要用到20万名装配线工人，需要大约8700名工业技师来承担监督和指导的职责。苹果公司的分析师预计，要想在美国找到这么多的合格技师，所需时间将会长达9个月。 In China, it took 15 days. 到了中国，这件事情只花了15天的时间。 Companies like Apple “say the challenge in setting up U.S. plants is finding a technical work force,” said Martin Schmidt, associate provost at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In particular, companies say they need engineers with more than high school, but not necessarily a bachelor’s degree. Americans at that skill level are hard to find, executives contend. “They’re good jobs, but the country doesn’t have enough to feed the demand,” Mr. Schmidt said. 麻省理工学院(Massachusetts Institute of Technology)副教务长马丁·施密特(Martin Schmidt)说，苹果之类的公司“宣称，在美国建厂的难点在于寻找技术工人”。这些公司还说，具体说来，他们需要的技师应该受过超过高中生的教育，但又不是非得拥有学士学位。管理人员们坚称，这种层次的技师在美国非常难找。施密特先生说，“这样的工作相当不错，美国却找不出足够的人来填补这些空缺。” Some aspects of the iPhone are uniquely American. The device’s software, for instance, and its innovative marketing campaigns were largely created in the United States. Apple recently built a $500 million data center in North Carolina. Crucial semiconductors inside the iPhone 4 and 4S are manufactured in an Austin, Tex., factory by Samsung, of South Korea. iPhone具有一些美国独有的特色，软件就是其中一例，与此同时，它新颖的营销手段也基本上源自美国。不久之前，苹果公司在北卡罗莱纳建立了一个耗资5亿美元的数据中心。用于iPhone 4和4S的关键性半导体由韩国的三星公司提供，产地则是位于德克萨斯州奥斯丁(Austin)的一家工厂。 But even those facilities are not enormous sources of jobs. Apple’s North Carolina center, for instance, has only 100 full-time employees. The Samsung plant has an estimated 2,400 workers. 但是，以上这些设施并不能提供大量的工作机会。举例来说，苹果的北卡罗莱纳中心只有100名全职员工。据估计，三星的奥斯丁工厂也只有2400名工人。 “If you scale up from selling one million phones to 30 million phones, you don’t really need more programmers,” said Jean-Louis Gassée, who oversaw product development and marketing for Apple until he left in 1990. “All these new companies — Facebook, Google, Twitter — benefit from this. They grow, but they don’t really need to hire much.” 让-路易斯·卡西(Jean-Louis Gassée)曾经负责苹果公司的产品开发和营销，于1990年去职。他说，“即便手机销量从100万部增加到了3000万部，你也用不着更多的程序员。包括Facebook、谷歌和推特(Twitter)在内，所有的新公司都尝到了这种甜头。他们不断成长，但却不需要雇用太多的人。” It is hard to estimate how much more it would cost to build iPhones in the United States. However, various academics and manufacturing analysts estimate that because labor is such a small part of technology manufacturing, paying American wages would add up to $65 to each iPhone’s expense. Since Apple’s profits are often hundreds of dollars per phone, building domestically, in theory, would still give the company a healthy reward. 在美国生产iPhone会增加多少成本，相关的数字很难估算。不过，按照多位学者和制造业分析师的估计，由于人力成本对高科技制造业来说微不足道，支付美国标准的薪金会让每部iPhone的成本增加至多65美元。鉴于苹果公司从每部手机收获的利润往往可以达到数百美元，从理论上说，即便在美国生产手机，苹果公司依然可以得到相当不错的收益。 But such calculations are, in many respects, meaningless because building the iPhone in the United States would demand much more than hiring Americans — it would require transforming the national and global economies. Apple executives believe there simply aren’t enough American workers with the skills the company needs or factories with sufficient speed and flexibility. Other companies that work with Apple, like Corning, also say they must go abroad. 然而，这样的分析从很多方面来说都没有什么意义，原因在于，在美国生产手机的条件远不只是雇用美国人那么简单，还意味着要对美国乃至全球经济进行调整。苹果管理层认为，美国就是没有那么多符合公司需要的工人，也没有速度够快、灵活性够大的工厂。康宁公司之类的苹果合作方也宣称，他们必须走向海外。 Manufacturing glass for the iPhone revived a Corning factory in Kentucky, and today, much of the glass in iPhones is still made there. After the iPhone became a success, Corning received a flood of orders from other companies hoping to imitate Apple’s designs. Its strengthened glass sales have grown to more than $700 million a year, and it has hired or continued employing about 1,000 Americans to support the emerging market. 苹果公司的玻璃订单让康宁公司设在肯塔基州的一家工厂获得了新生，时至今日，用于iPhone的大部分玻璃仍然产于此地。iPhone大获成功之后，康宁公司从急欲模仿苹果设计的各家公司那里接到了一大堆订单。它的强化玻璃年销售额增长到了7亿美元以上。为了满足新起的市场需求，公司雇用了或说是保留了大约1千名美国员工。 But as that market has expanded, the bulk of Corning’s strengthened glass manufacturing has occurred at plants in Japan and Taiwan. 不过，随着市场的扩张，康宁公司已经把大部分的强化玻璃生产任务转到了位于日本和台湾的工厂。 “Our customers are in Taiwan, Korea, Japan and China,” said James B. Flaws, Corning’s vice chairman and chief financial officer. “We could make the glass here, and then ship it by boat, but that takes 35 days. Or, we could ship it by air, but that’s 10 times as expensive. So we build our glass factories next door to assembly factories, and those are overseas.” 康宁公司副主席兼首席财务官詹姆斯·B·弗罗斯(James B. Flaws)说，“我们的客户来自台湾、韩国、日本和中国大陆。我们固然可以在美国生产玻璃，然后再用船运过去，航程却长达35天。我们也可以改用空运，可空运的费用是海运的10倍。既然如此，我们就把玻璃厂开在了那些组装厂的隔壁，那些组装厂都在国外。” Corning was founded in America 161 years ago and its headquarters are still in upstate New York. Theoretically, the company could manufacture all its glass domestically. But it would “require a total overhaul in how the industry is structured,” Mr. Flaws said. “The consumer electronics business has become an Asian business. As an American, I worry about that, but there’s nothing I can do to stop it. Asia has become what the U.S. was for the last 40 years.” 161年前，康宁公司在美国诞生，时至今日，它的总部依然位于纽约州北部。理论上说，公司可以把所有的玻璃生产任务放在国内。但是，弗罗斯先生说，这就“需要对整个行业的结构来一次全面调整。电子消费品行业已经变成了亚洲的独门生意。身为美国人，我对这种状况感到担心，可我没办法阻止这样的势头。亚洲已经取代了美国在过去40年当中的地位。” Middle-Class Jobs Fade 中产阶级工作萎缩 The first time Eric Saragoza stepped into Apple’s manufacturing plant in Elk Grove, Calif., he felt as if he were entering an engineering wonderland. 第一次踏进加州埃克格鲁夫那家苹果工厂的时候，埃里克·萨拉戈萨(Eric Saragoza)恍然觉得，自己走进了一处工程技术的仙境。 It was 1995, and the facility near Sacramento employed more than 1,500 workers. It was a kaleidoscope of robotic arms, conveyor belts ferrying circuit boards and, eventually, candy-colored iMacs in various stages of assembly. Mr. Saragoza, an engineer, quickly moved up the plant’s ranks and joined an elite diagnostic team. His salary climbed to $50,000. He and his wife had three children. They bought a home with a pool. 当时是1995年，这家邻近萨克拉门托(Sacramento)的工厂雇用了超过1500名工人。厂房里面就像是一个万花筒，有各式各样的机械手，有承载着各种电路板的传送带，最后还有处于各个装配流程的花花绿绿的苹果电脑。身为技师的萨拉戈萨先生在厂里的地位迅速攀升，很快就进入了负责诊断产品问题的精英团队，薪水也增加到了5万美元。他和妻子生了三个孩子，还买了一幢带游泳池的房子。 “It felt like, finally, school was paying off,” he said. “I knew the world needed people who can build things.” 他说，“当时的感觉就是，我的学总算是没有白上。我早就知道，这个世界需要会做东西的人。” At the same time, however, the electronics industry was changing, and Apple — with products that were declining in popularity — was struggling to remake itself. One focus was improving manufacturing. A few years after Mr. Saragoza started his job, his bosses explained how the California plant stacked up against overseas factories: the cost, excluding the materials, of building a $1,500 computer in Elk Grove was $22 a machine. In Singapore, it was $6. In Taiwan, $4.85. Wages weren’t the major reason for the disparities. Rather it was costs like inventory and how long it took workers to finish a task. 与此同时，电子产业却起了变化。由于产品销势每况愈下，苹果公司正在奋力进行自我改造。萨拉戈萨先生入职几年之后，他的老板谈起了加州工厂相对于海外工厂的劣势：刨去原材料不算，在埃克格鲁夫生产一台售价1500美元的电脑需要22美元的成本，在新加坡生产的成本是6美元，台湾则是4.85美元。造成差距的主要原因并不是工资，而是仓储之类的成本，以及工人完成活计的速度。 “We were told we would have to do 12-hour days, and come in on Saturdays,” Mr. Saragoza said. “I had a family. I wanted to see my kids play soccer.” 萨拉戈萨先生说，“老板告诉我们，我们必须每天工作12个小时，星期六也得上班。可我是个有家有口的人，还想看我的孩子们踢足球呢。” Modernization has always caused some kinds of jobs to change or disappear. As the American economy transitioned from agriculture to manufacturing and then to other industries, farmers became steelworkers, and then salesmen and middle managers. These shifts have carried many economic benefits, and in general, with each progression, even unskilled workers received better wages and greater chances at upward mobility. 现代化的进程总是会让一些工作变化或者消失。美国经济先是从农业转型为制造业，然后又转入其他产业，在此期间，农夫变成了钢铁工人，跟着又变成了推销员或者中层管理人员。这样的转变带来了许多经济效益，总体说来，即便是没有技术的工人也可以通过每一次的转变获得更高的工资，获得更大的上升机会。 But in the last two decades, something more fundamental has changed, economists say. Midwage jobs started disappearing. Particularly among Americans without college degrees, today’s new jobs are disproportionately in service occupations — at restaurants or call centers, or as hospital attendants or temporary workers — that offer fewer opportunities for reaching the middle class. 然而，经济学家们指出，过去20年当中，某种更为根本的东西发生了改变。中等收入的工作开始消失。今天的新工作过多地集中于餐馆职员、接线员、医院护理人员和临时杂工之类的服务性岗位，这些岗位提供不了多少升入中产阶级的机会。对于没有大学学位的美国人来说，情况尤其如此。 Even Mr. Saragoza, with his college degree, was vulnerable to these trends. First, some of Elk Grove’s routine tasks were sent overseas. Mr. Saragoza didn’t mind. Then the robotics that made Apple a futuristic playground allowed executives to replace workers with machines. Some diagnostic engineering went to Singapore. Middle managers who oversaw the plant’s inventory were laid off because, suddenly, a few people with Internet connections were all that were needed. 即便是拥有大学学位的萨拉戈萨先生也抵挡不住这样的势头。刚开始，公司把埃克格鲁夫工厂的一些日常工作交到了海外，萨拉戈萨先生没有在意。接下来，人工智能设备把苹果公司变成了一个未来主义风格的游乐场，也给公司管理层提供了用机器取代工人的机会。公司把一部分的问题诊断工作交给了新加坡。管理工厂库存的中层纷纷下岗，原因在于，公司突然发现，有那么几个连着网的人就够用了。 Mr. Saragoza was too expensive for an unskilled position. He was also insufficiently credentialed for upper management. He was called into a small office in 2002 after a night shift, laid off and then escorted from the plant. He taught high school for a while, and then tried a return to technology. But Apple, which had helped anoint the region as “Silicon Valley North,” had by then converted much of the Elk Grove plant into an AppleCare call center, where new employees often earn $12 an hour. 萨拉戈萨先生身价太高，没法安排不需要技术的工作。与此同时，他又不具备担任高层管理人员的资质。2002年的一次夜班之后，上头把他叫进一间小办公室，辞退了他，然后就让人送他出厂。他教了一阵高中，跟着又尝试重返科技行业。然而，到那个时候，曾经帮助该地区赢得“北方硅谷”美名的苹果公司已经把埃克格鲁夫工厂的大部分改造成了一个售后服务电话中心，新员工的时薪通常只有12美元。 There were employment prospects in Silicon Valley, but none of them panned out. “What they really want are 30-year-olds without children,” said Mr. Saragoza, who today is 48, and whose family now includes five of his own. 硅谷倒是有工作机会，只可惜都没有变成现实。萨拉戈萨先生现年48岁，家里已经有了5个孩子。他说，“他们真正想要的是30来岁、没有孩子的人。” After a few months of looking for work, he started feeling desperate. Even teaching jobs had dried up. So he took a position with an electronics temp agency that had been hired by Apple to check returned iPhones and iPads before they were sent back to customers. Every day, Mr. Saragoza would drive to the building where he had once worked as an engineer, and for $10 an hour with no benefits, wipe thousands of glass screens and test audio ports by plugging in headphones. 找了几个月工作之后，他产生了绝望的感觉。就连教书的工作也已经无处寻觅了。于是乎，他在一家电子行业临时工介绍所找了个工作，苹果公司雇那家介绍所来检修退回的iPhone和iPad，然后再把机器还给顾客。萨拉戈萨先生每天都要开车去他曾经担任技师的那座大楼，在那里擦洗数以千计的玻璃屏幕、插入耳机以测试音频接口，时薪10美元，没有福利。 Paydays for Apple 苹果公司的发财日子 As Apple’s overseas operations and sales have expanded, its top employees have thrived. Last fiscal year, Apple’s revenue topped $108 billion, a sum larger than the combined state budgets of Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts. Since 2005, when the company’s stock split, share prices have risen from about $45 to more than $427. 苹果公司的海外业务及销量膨胀之际，公司高层也大发其财。上一个财政年度，苹果公司的收入高达1080亿美元，超过密歇根、新泽西和马萨诸塞三州预算的总和。2005年拆分股份之后，苹果的股价已经从45美元左右涨到了427美元以上。 Some of that wealth has gone to shareholders. Apple is among the most widely held stocks, and the rising share price has benefited millions of individual investors, 401(k)’s and pension plans. The bounty has also enriched Apple workers. Last fiscal year, in addition to their salaries, Apple’s employees and directors received stock worth $2 billion and exercised or vested stock and options worth an added $1.4 billion. 一部分的财富落到了股东手里。苹果股票是股东最分散的股票之一，高涨的股价让数百万个人投资者、401(k)基金和养老基金从中受益，也让苹果的工人发财致富。上一个财政年度，除了工资之外，苹果的员工和经理还得到了总值超过20亿美元的股票，兑现或生效的股票及期权总值也达到了14亿美元。 The biggest rewards, however, have often gone to Apple’s top employees. Mr. Cook, Apple’s chief, last year received stock grants — which vest over a 10-year period — that, at today’s share price, would be worth $427 million, and his salary was raised to $1.4 million. In 2010, Mr. Cook’s compensation package was valued at $59 million, according to Apple’s security filings. 不过，最大的受益者通常都是苹果公司的高层管理人员。去年，苹果首席执行官库克先生获得了将在10年之内逐步生效的大量赠与股，按现在的股价计算，这些股票的价值是4.27亿美元。除此之外，他的薪水也涨到了140万美元。苹果公司的证券披露材料显示，2010年，库克先生的薪酬包总值为5900万美元。 A person close to Apple argued that the compensation received by Apple’s employees was fair, in part because the company had brought so much value to the nation and world. As the company has grown, it has expanded its domestic work force, including manufacturing jobs. Last year, Apple’s American work force grew by 8,000 people. 一名与苹果公司关联紧密的人士宣称，苹果员工的薪酬是合理的，部分是因为苹果公司为美国乃至全世界创造了如此庞大的价值。随着业务的发展，公司已经扩大了国内员工的规模，包括从事制造业的员工。去年，苹果公司在美国的雇员增加了八千人。 While other companies have sent call centers abroad, Apple has kept its centers in the United States. One source estimated that sales of Apple’s products have caused other companies to hire tens of thousands of Americans. FedEx and United Parcel Service, for instance, both say they have created American jobs because of the volume of Apple’s shipments, though neither would provide specific figures without permission from Apple, which the company declined to provide. 其他公司纷纷将电话中心迁往海外，苹果公司却把自己的电话中心留在了美国。某消息来源估计，苹果产品的销售已经促使其他公司雇用了数以万计的美国人。举例来说，联邦快递(FedEx)和UPS宣称，由于苹果产品带来的巨大运输量，他们都为美国人提供了更多的工作机会。不过，两家公司都不愿意提供具体的数字，说是需要得到苹果公司的许可，与此同时，苹果公司拒绝提供这样的许可。 “We shouldn’t be criticized for using Chinese workers,” a current Apple executive said. “The U.S. has stopped producing people with the skills we need.” 苹果公司的一名现职管理人员说，“我们雇用中国工人的做法无可指责，因为美国已经不能提供我们需要的人才了。” What’s more, Apple sources say the company has created plenty of good American jobs inside its retail stores and among entrepreneurs selling iPhone and iPad applications. 除此之外，苹果方面的消息来源说，公司已经为美国人创造了大量的好工作，有的岗位是在苹果的零售店里，还有的是在销售iPhone和iPad应用软件的商家那里。 After two months of testing iPads, Mr. Saragoza quit. The pay was so low that he was better off, he figured, spending those hours applying for other jobs. On a recent October evening, while Mr. Saragoza sat at his MacBook and submitted another round of résumés online, halfway around the world a woman arrived at her office. The worker, Lina Lin, is a project manager in Shenzhen, China, at PCH International, which contracts with Apple and other electronics companies to coordinate production of accessories, like the cases that protect the iPad’s glass screens. She is not an Apple employee. But Mrs. Lin is integral to Apple’s ability to deliver its products. 做了两个月iPad测试工作之后，萨拉戈萨先生辞了职。按他的盘算，与其忍受这么低的薪水，还不如把时间用来寻找别的工作。不久之前的一个十月夜晚，萨拉戈萨先生坐在自己的苹果笔记本跟前，又在网上发了一轮简历。与此同时，半个地球之外，一位女士走进了自己的办公室。这位女士名叫林丽娜（音译），是PCH国际公司深圳分公司的项目经理，该公司与苹果等电子公司签有合约，负责协调配件生产，比如iPad玻璃屏幕的保护套。林女士不是苹果雇员，但却为苹果的生产能力发挥着不可或缺的作用。 Mrs. Lin earns a bit less than what Mr. Saragoza was paid by Apple. She speaks fluent English, learned from watching television and in a Chinese university. She and her husband put a quarter of their salaries in the bank every month. They live in a 1,080-square-foot apartment, which they share with their in-laws and son. 林女士的工资略少于萨拉戈萨先生受雇于苹果时的工资。通过看电视和中国一所大学的教育，她学会了一口流利的英语。每个月，她和丈夫都会把四分之一的工资存入银行。夫妻俩住在一套108平方米的公寓里，同住的还有儿子和姻亲。 “There are lots of jobs,” Mrs. Lin said. “Especially in Shenzhen.” “工作机会多得很，”林女士说，“尤其是在深圳。” Innovation’s Losers 创新浪潮的输家 Toward the end of Mr. Obama’s dinner last year with Mr. Jobs and other Silicon Valley executives, as everyone stood to leave, a crowd of photo seekers formed around the president. A slightly smaller scrum gathered around Mr. Jobs. Rumors had spread that his illness had worsened, and some hoped for a photograph with him, perhaps for the last time. 去年，奥巴马先生与乔布斯先生及其他硅谷高管的那场晚宴临近尾声的时候，所有人都起身准备离开。一群想要合影的人围在了总统身边，乔布斯先生身边也围起了一群规模略小的人。关于他病情恶化的流言已经传开，有些人希望跟他合个影，没准儿是最后一次了呢。 Eventually, the orbits of the men overlapped. “I’m not worried about the country’s long-term future,” Mr. Jobs told Mr. Obama, according to one observer. “This country is insanely great. What I’m worried about is that we don’t talk enough about solutions.” 到最后，两个人走到了一起。按照一名旁观者的叙述，乔布斯先生对奥巴马先生说，“我并不为国家的长远前途担心。这个国家棒极了。我只是担心，我们关于解决方案的探讨不够彻底。” At dinner, for instance, the executives had suggested that the government should reform visa programs to help companies hire foreign engineers. Some had urged the president to give companies a “tax holiday” so they could bring back overseas profits which, they argued, would be used to create work. Mr. Jobs even suggested it might be possible, someday, to locate some of Apple’s skilled manufacturing in the United States if the government helped train more American engineers. 举例来说，晚宴过程之中，各位高管曾经建议政府修改签证政策，为各家公司雇请外国技师打开方便之门。有些人敦促总统给各家公司一个“税负假期”，好让他们把海外利润转回国内，同时还说，他们会用这些利润来创造工作机会。乔布斯先生甚至提出，如果政府愿意协助培训美国技师的话，有朝一日，苹果兴许会把一部分高技能制造业务迁回美国。 Economists debate the usefulness of those and other efforts, and note that a struggling economy is sometimes transformed by unexpected developments. The last time analysts wrung their hands about prolonged American unemployment, for instance, in the early 1980s, the Internet hardly existed. Few at the time would have guessed that a degree in graphic design was rapidly becoming a smart bet, while studying telephone repair a dead end. 经济学家们就以上及其他一些措施的效用争论不休，同时指出，有些时候，意料之外的发展会为步履艰难的经济带来转机。举例来说，分析师们上一次为美国失业率高居不下而揪心的情形出现在20世纪80年代早期，那个时候，互联网几乎还不存在。当时很少有人能够想到，平面设计学位会迅速成为一个精明的赌注，与此同时，电话修理却会变成一个没有前途的专业。 What remains unknown, however, is whether the United States will be able to leverage tomorrow’s innovations into millions of jobs. 不过，美国能不能把未来的技术革新变成千百万个工作机会，眼下还是个未知之数。 In the last decade, technological leaps in solar and wind energy, semiconductor fabrication and display technologies have created thousands of jobs. But while many of those industries started in America, much of the employment has occurred abroad. Companies have closed major facilities in the United States to reopen in China. By way of explanation, executives say they are competing with Apple for shareholders. If they cannot rival Apple’s growth and profit margins, they won’t survive. 过去10年当中，太阳能、风能、半导体制造以及显示技术方面的技术飞跃已经带来了数以千计的工作机会。这类产业有许多都是发源于美国，由此而来的大部分工作机会却落到了国外。各家公司纷纷关闭在美国的大型设施，为的是在中国重新开张。公司管理层的说辞是，他们这么做，是为了跟苹果争夺投资者。要是增长速度和利润率赶不上苹果的话，他们就无法生存。 “New middle-class jobs will eventually emerge,” said Lawrence Katz, a Harvard economist. “But will someone in his 40s have the skills for them? Or will he be bypassed for a new graduate and never find his way back into the middle class?” 哈佛大学的经济学家劳伦斯·凯茨(Lawrence Katz)说，“新的中产阶级工作机会终将出现。可是，那些40多岁的人具备赢得机会的技能吗？他们会不会被刚刚毕业的大学生抢在头里、再也无法回到中产阶级的行列呢？” The pace of innovation, say executives from a variety of industries, has been quickened by businessmen like Mr. Jobs. G.M. went as long as half a decade between major automobile redesigns. Apple, by comparison, has released five iPhones in four years, doubling the devices’ speed and memory while dropping the price that some consumers pay. 来自多个产业的管理人员纷纷表示，乔布斯先生之类的商人加快了创新的速度。在以前，通用公司要等长达五年的时间才会对车型进行大幅度修改。反观苹果公司，它在4年之内就推出了5款iPhone，手机的速度和内存都翻了倍，针对部分用户的售价却有所降低。 Before Mr. Obama and Mr. Jobs said goodbye, the Apple executive pulled an iPhone from his pocket to show off a new application — a driving game — with incredibly detailed graphics. The device reflected the soft glow of the room’s lights. The other executives, whose combined worth exceeded $69 billion, jostled for position to glance over his shoulder. The game, everyone agreed, was wonderful. 跟奥巴马先生道别之前，乔布斯先生从兜里掏出了一部iPhone，为的是炫耀一款影像效果无比精细的应用软件——一款驾驶游戏。手机反射着房间里的柔和光线，身价总和超过690亿美元的其他高管争先恐后地隔着他的肩膀观赏游戏画面。所有的人众口一词，这款游戏妙不可言。 There wasn’t even a tiny scratch on the screen. 手机屏幕之上，不见丝毫划痕 。 David Barboza、Peter Lattman、Catherine Rampell对本文有报道贡献。 翻译：李家真-
Tony Romm2025年3月27日特朗普总统表示，他可能会发布另一项命令，给予政府更多时间为TikTok寻找买家。 Doug Mills/The New York Times President Trump on Wednesday raised the possibility that he could relax steep upcoming tariffs on China in exchange for the country’s support on a deal to sell TikTok to a new owner from the United States. 周三，特朗普总统提出有可能放宽即将对中国实施的高额关税，换取中国支持将TikTok出售给美国新买家的交易。 Acknowledging that Beijing is “going to have to play a role” in any transaction, Mr. Trump signaled to reporters at the White House that he could be open to negotiation. “Maybe I’ll give them a little reduction in tariffs or something to get it done,” he said. 特朗普承认，在任何交易中，中国都“必须发挥一定作用”，他在白宫向记者们暗示，自己可能愿意进行谈判。“也许我会给他们稍微降低一点关税或者其他措施来促成这件事，”他说道。 Under a law enacted before Mr. Trump took office, the Chinese-based parent company of TikTok must either sell the social media app’s U.S. operations or face what essentially amounts to a domestic ban. Lawmakers adopted that policy in response to growing, bipartisan concerns that the app posed threats to U.S. national security, which TikTok denies. 根据特朗普上任前的一项法律，TikTok的中国母公司要么出售这款社交媒体应用在美国的业务，要么就将面临实质上等同于国内禁令的情况。国会议员们采取这一政策，是因为两党越来越担心这款应用对美国国家安全构成威胁，而TikTok对这样的威胁予以否认。 Congress originally set a January deadline for its ultimatum. But no sale occurred, prompting Mr. Trump — as one of his first executive actions — to delay enforcement of the law for 75 days in the hopes of securing a buyer. 国会最初为这一最后通牒设定的期限是1月。但交易并未达成，这促使特朗普将该法律的执行期限推迟了75天，以期找到买家，这也是他最早签发的政令之一。 The new deadline arrives on April 5, just three days after Mr. Trump separately plans to announce what he has described as “reciprocal” tariffs, imposing new duties on foreign nations based on the trade barriers that they erect to U.S. imports. The president has already subjected Chinese goods to a 20 percent tariff, on top of those he enacted during his first term in office. 新的最后期限是4月5日，也就是特朗普计划宣布他所称的“对等”关税政策的三天后，该关税根据其他国家对美国进口商品设置的贸易壁垒，对这些国家征收新的关税。总统已经对中国商品征收了20%的关税，这是在他第一个任期内已实施的关税基础上额外增加的。 “Every point in tariffs is worth more than TikTok,” Mr. Trump said about the prospects of a negotiation, adding: “Sounds like something I’d do.” “关税上的每一点调整都比TikTok贵多了，”特朗普在谈到谈判的可能性时说道，并且还说：“这听起来像是我会做的事。” Mr. Trump on Wednesday said he could issue another order that grants the government additional time to find a buyer for TikTok, stressing the goal is an outcome “that’s best for our country.” The president has raised the possibility that the U.S. government could acquire a stake in the app. 周三，特朗普表示，他可能会发布另一项命令，给予政府更多时间为TikTok寻找买家，并强调目标是达成“对我们国家最有利”的结果。总统曾提出美国政府有可能收购这款应用的部分股权。 ”If it’s not finished, it’s not a big deal. We’ll extend it,” Mr. Trump said. “如果还是没完成，也没什么大不了的。我们会延期的，”特朗普说道。 Chinese officials, for their part, maintain that any sale or divestiture must comply with local export laws, potentially giving Beijing power over any arrangement brokered by Mr. Trump. 就中国官员而言，他们坚持认为，任何出售或剥离资产的行为都必须遵守当地出口法律，这可能使中国政府对特朗普促成的任何交易安排都有一定的话语权。 Tony Romm常驻华盛顿，为时报报道经济政策和特朗普政府。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT2025年3月27日 WASHINGTON — Even before he disclosed secret battle plans for Yemen in a group chat, information that could have endangered American fighter pilots, it had been a rocky two months for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. 华盛顿——国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在群聊中披露了对也门的秘密作战计划，这种信息有可能威胁美国战斗机飞行员的安全，然而甚至在此之前，海格塞斯近两个月的日子也一直不好过。 Hegseth, a former National Guard infantryman and Fox News weekend host, started his job at the Pentagon determined to out-Trump President Donald Trump, Defense Department officials and aides said. 海格塞斯曾是国民警卫队的一名步兵，担任过福克斯新闻周末节目的主持人，国防部的官员和助手们说，他一到五角大楼上任就决心要比特朗普总统还特朗普。 The president is skeptical about the value of NATO and European alliances, so the Pentagon under Hegseth considered plans in which the United States would give up its command role overseeing NATO troops. After Trump issued executive orders targeting transgender people, Hegseth ordered a ban on transgender troops. 由于特朗普对北约和欧洲盟友的价值持怀疑态度，海格塞斯领导下的五角大楼考虑让美国放弃其负责北约部队指挥权的计划。特朗普发布了针对跨性别者的行政命令后，海格塞斯下令将跨性别者从部队中去除。 Trump has embraced Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of SpaceX and Tesla. The Pentagon planned a sensitive briefing to give Musk a firsthand look at how the military would fight a war with China, a potentially valuable step for any businessperson with interests there. 特朗普热情接受了SpaceX和特斯拉的亿万富翁首席执行官埃隆·马斯克。五角大楼曾计划召开一个敏感的信息简报会，让马斯克掌握美军将如何与中国作战的第一手知识，这对任何在中国有利益的商人来说都具有潜在价值。 In all of those endeavors, Hegseth was pulled back, by congressional Republicans, the courts or even Trump. 海格塞斯的所有这些努力都被国会共和党人、法院，甚至特朗普本人拉了回来。 The president made clear last Friday that he had been caught by surprise by a report in The New York Times on the Pentagon’s briefing for Musk, who oversees an effort to shrink the government, but also denied that the meeting had been planned. 总统上周五明确表示，《纽约时报》关于五角大楼向马斯克汇报情况的报道让他感到意外。马斯克目前负责一个缩减政府规模的努力，他也否认有召开这种会议的计划。 “I don’t want to show that to anybody, but certainly you wouldn’t show it to a businessman who is helping us so much,” Trump said. “我不想让任何人看到那些，肯定不会让一个给我们帮了大忙的商人看到，”特朗普说。 But Hegseth’s latest mistake could have led to catastrophic consequences. 但海格塞斯最近的错误本有可能带来灾难性的后果。 On Monday, the editor-in-chief of The Atlantic magazine, Jeffrey Goldberg, wrote that he had been inadvertently included in an encrypted group chat in which Hegseth discussed plans for targeting the Houthi militia in Yemen two hours before U.S. troops launched attacks against the group. 周一，《大西洋》月刊主编杰弗里·戈德堡撰文称，他被误加到一个加密群聊组里，在美军对胡塞民兵发动袭击的两小时前，海格塞斯在群聊中讨论了打击也门胡塞民兵的计划。 The White House confirmed Goldberg’s account. But Hegseth later denied that he put war plans in the group chat, which apparently included other senior members of Trump’s national security team. 白宫证实了戈德堡的说法。但海格塞斯后来否认他把作战计划发布到群聊中，该群聊组显然包括特朗普国家安全团队的其他高级成员。 In disclosing the aircraft, targets and timing for hitting Houthi militia sites in Yemen on the commercial messaging app Signal, Hegseth risked the lives of American war fighters. 海格塞斯在商业聊天应用Signal上披露了打击也门胡塞武装地点的飞机、目标和时间，这威胁到了参加行动的美国士兵的生命安全。 Across the military Monday and Tuesday, current and retired troops and officers expressed dismay and anger in social media posts, secret chat groups and the hallways of the Pentagon. 周一和周二，美国各大军种的现役和退役士兵和军官在社交媒体帖子、秘密聊天群群组，以及五角大楼的走廊里表达了诧异和愤怒。 “My father was killed in action flying night-trail interdiction over the Ho Chi Minh Trail” after a North Vietnamese strike, said retired Maj. Gen. Paul D. Eaton, who served in the Iraq War. “And now, you have Hegseth. He has released information that could have directly led to the death of an American fighter pilot.” “我父亲在胡志明小道上空执行夜间拦截飞行任务时阵亡，”曾在伊拉克战争中服役的退役少将保罗·伊顿说。“现在来了个海格塞斯。他泄露的信息有可能直接导致一名美国战斗机飞行员的死亡。” 海格塞斯在Signal群聊中透露了打击也门胡塞武装据点行动的飞机、目标和时间，《大西洋》月刊主编杰弗里·戈德堡也被误加到群聊组里。 It was unclear Tuesday whether anyone involved in the Signal group chat would lose their jobs. Republicans in Congress have been wary of running afoul of Trump. But Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., who chairs the Armed Services Committee, indicated Monday that there would be some kind of investigation. 周二，尚不清楚与Signal群聊有关的人中是否有人会丢掉工作。国会共和党人一直小心谨慎不与特朗普发生冲突。但参议院军事委员会主席、共和党参议员罗杰·威克尔周一表示，会对这件事展开某种形式的调查。 John Bolton, a national security adviser in the first Trump administration, said on social media that he doubted that “anyone will be held to account for events described by The Atlantic unless Donald Trump himself feels the heat.” 曾在特朗普的上届政府担任国家安全顾问的约翰·博尔顿在社交媒体上表示，他怀疑“除非唐纳德·特朗普本人感受到压力，否则不会有人对《大西洋》所描述的事件负责。” In his article, Goldberg said he was added to the chat by Michael Waltz, Trump’s current national security adviser. 戈德堡在文章中写道，把他加入群聊的是特朗普的现任国家安全顾问迈克尔·沃尔兹。 On Tuesday, Trump defended Waltz. “Michael Waltz has learned a lesson, and he’s a good man,” Trump said in an interview on NBC. 周二，特朗普为沃尔兹辩白。“迈克尔·沃尔兹已吸取了教训，他是个好人，”特朗普在接受NBC采访时说。 The president added that Goldberg’s presence in the group chat had “no impact at all” and that the Houthi attacks were “perfectly successful.” 总统还说，戈德堡出现在群聊中“完全没有影响”，打击胡塞武装的行动“完美成功”。 To be sure, some of Hegseth’s stumbles have been part of the learning process of a high-profile job leading a department with an $850-billion-a-year budget. 可以肯定的是，海格塞斯的一些失误是在一份备受瞩目的工作中边学边干的一部分，他领导的是一个年度预算高达8500亿美元的部门。 “Secretary Hegseth is trying to figure out where the president’s headed, and to run there ahead of him,” said Kori Schake, a national security expert at the American Enterprise Institute. But, she added, “he’s doing performative activities. He’s not yet demonstrated that he’s running the department.” “海格塞斯正在试图弄清楚总统想往哪里去，并抢在他之前赶到那里，”美国企业研究所的国家安全专家科莉·沙克说。但她还说，“他是在做一些表演活动。他还没有证明自己是在管理这个部门。” Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University who has studied the military for decades, said the Signal chat disclosure “raises serious questions about how a new accountability standard might apply: How would he handle a situation like this if it involved one of his subordinates?” 研究军方数十年的杜克大学政治学教授彼得·费弗表示，Signal群聊泄密一事“给可能如何适用新的问责标准带来了一个严肃的问题：如果所涉及的人是他的下属之一，他将如何处理这种情况？” 海格塞斯已向记者否认他在群聊中透露了任何作战计划，还批评了戈德堡，把他称为“所谓的记者”。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Hegseth’s stumbles started soon after he was sworn in to lead the Pentagon on Jan. 25. 海格塞斯今年1月25日宣誓就任五角大楼负责人后不久就开始出现失误。 In his debut on the world stage in mid-February, he told NATO and Ukrainian ministers that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, before Russia’s first invasion, was “an unrealistic objective” and ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine. A few hours later, Trump backed him up while announcing a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin peace negotiations. 今年2月中旬，他首次在世界舞台上亮相时曾告诉北约各国和乌克兰的部长们，让乌克兰回到2014年俄罗斯首次入侵之前的边界是“不切实际的目标”，还排除了乌克兰加入北约的可能性。几小时后，特朗普在宣布与俄罗斯总统普京通电话开始和平谈判时支持了他的观点。 Facing blowback the next day from European allies and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Hegseth denied that either he or Trump had sold out Ukraine. “There is no betrayal there,” Hegseth said. 第二天，在欧洲盟友和乌克兰总统泽连斯基的强烈反击面前，海格塞斯否认自己或特朗普出卖了乌克兰。“没有背叛，”海格塞斯说。 That was not how even Republican supporters of Hegseth saw it. “He made a rookie mistake in Brussels,” Wicker said about the secretary’s comment on Ukraine’s borders. 但就连支持海格塞斯的共和党人也不那么看。“他在布鲁塞尔犯了一个菜鸟错误，”威克尔谈到国防部长有关乌克兰边界的言论时说。 今年2月中旬，海格塞斯在布鲁塞尔对北约成员国和乌克兰的部长们说，恢复乌克兰 2014年前的边界是“不切实际的目标”，并排除了乌克兰加入北约的可能性，这让他在世界舞台上首次亮相时出错。 “I don’t know who wrote the speech — it is the kind of thing Tucker Carlson could have written, and Carlson is a fool,” Wicker said, referring to the conservative media personality and former Fox News host. “我不知道讲话稿是谁写的。塔克·卡尔森是有可能写这种东西的人，卡尔森是个傻瓜，”威克尔说，他指的是保守派媒体名人、福克斯新闻前主持人。 Hegseth sought to recover later in the week, saying he had simply been trying to “introduce realism into the expectations of our NATO allies.” How much territory Ukraine may cede to Russia would be decided in talks between Trump and the presidents of the warring countries, he said. 海格塞斯在那周后晚些时候试图挽回，称他只不过是试图“让我们北约盟友的期望变得更接近现实”。他说，乌克兰可能割让给俄罗斯多少领土将在特朗普与交战国总统的谈判中决定。 Last week, Hegseth again got crosswise with Wicker over reports that the Trump administration was planning to withdraw from NATO’s military command and reduce the number of troops deployed overseas in addition to other changes to the military’s combatant commands. 上周有报道称，特朗普政府正打算退出北约军事指挥部，减少部署在海外的军队数量，此外还将对军队的作战指挥系统进行其他调整。这些报道又一次让海格塞斯与威克尔意见相左。 Wicker and Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., who chairs the House Armed Services Committee, said in a statement that they were concerned about reports that the Defense Department might be planning changes “absent coordination with the White House and Congress.” 威克尔和众议院军事委员会主席、阿拉巴马州共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯在一份声明中表示，那些报道让他们担心，国防部也许正在“没有与白宫和国会协调”的情况下制定改变现状的计划。 海格塞斯和妻子詹妮弗·劳切出席在华沙举行的军事仪式。海格塞斯在今年2月晚些时候的那次活动中试图收回他之前发表的有关乌克兰的言论。 Greg Jaffe对本文有报道贡献。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过三十年。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ANA SWANSON2025年3月26日被加入美国限制名单的公司包括宁畅，在美国于2019年限制另一家公司曙光之后，英伟达、英特尔和微软与宁畅建立了联系。 Loren Elliott for The New York Times The Trump administration on Tuesday added 80 companies and organizations to a list of companies that are barred from buying American technology and other exports because of national security concerns. 周二，特朗普政府将80家公司和组织列入因国家安全考虑而被禁止购买美国技术和其他出口产品的公司名单。 The move, which targeted primarily Chinese firms, cracks down on companies that have been big buyers of American chips from Nvidia, Intel and AMD. It also closed loopholes that Trump administration officials have long criticized as allowing Chinese firms to continue to advance technologically despite U.S. restrictions. 这一举措主要针对的是中国公司，旨在打击那些从英伟达、英特尔和AMD购买美国芯片的大型买家。它还弥补了特朗普政府官员长期以来批评的漏洞，这些漏洞允许中国公司在美国的限制下继续推进技术进步。 One company added to the list, Nettrix Information Industry, was the focus of a 2024 investigation by The New York Times that showed how some Chinese executives had bypassed U.S. restrictions aimed at cutting China off from advanced chips to make artificial intelligence. 名单上新增的公司宁畅信息产业是《纽约时报》2024年一项调查的重点，该调查显示了一些中国高管如何绕过美国旨在阻止中国获得制造人工智能的先进芯片的限制。 Nettrix, one of China’s largest makers of computer servers that are used to produce artificial intelligence, was started by a group of former executives from Sugon, a firm that provided advanced computing to the Chinese military and built a system the government used to surveil persecuted minorities in the western Xinjiang region. 宁畅是中国最大的用于生产人工智能的计算机服务器制造商之一，该公司由一群中科曙光公司的前高管创建。曙光向中国军方提供先进的计算技术，并建立了一个系统，被政府用来监视新疆西部地区受迫害的少数民族。 In 2019, the United States added Sugon to its “entity list,” restricting exports over national security concerns. The Times investigation found that, six months later, the executives formed Nettrix, using Sugon’s technology and inheriting some of its customers. Times reporters also found that Nettrix’s owners shared a complex in eastern China with Sugon and other related companies. 2019年，美国将曙光列入“实体清单”，以国家安全担忧为由限制对其出口。《纽约时报》的调查发现，六个月后，这些高管组建了宁畅，使用曙光的技术，并继承了它的一些客户。时报记者还发现，宁畅的所有者与曙光和其他相关公司共用位于中国东部的一座综合大楼。 After Sugon was singled out and restricted by the United States, its longtime partners — Nvidia, Intel and Microsoft — quickly formed ties with Nettrix, the investigation found. 调查发现，在曙光被美国点名限制后，其长期合作伙伴英伟达、英特尔和微软迅速与宁畅建立了联系。 Records obtained through WireScreen, a business intelligence platform, showed that Sugon and Nettrix have links to the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a vast research institution that develops chip technology, parts of which the United States has placed under sanctions for national security concerns. Procurement documents indicated that Nettrix had sold servers to universities that host defense laboratories and cybersecurity firms that work with the military and on China’s Great Firewall, among other customers. 通过商业情报平台WireScreen获得的记录显示，曙光、宁畅都与中国科学院有关联。中国科学院是一家在从事芯片技术开发的大型研究机构，美国出于国家安全考虑对其部分业务实施了制裁。采购文件显示，宁畅曾向设有国防实验室的大学、与军方合作的网络安全公司以及中国防火墙等客户出售服务器。 The Trump administration added 54 companies and organizations from China to the entity list on Tuesday, as well as more than two dozen from Iran, Pakistan, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and Taiwan. 特朗普政府周二在实体清单上增加了的公司中包括54家中国公司和组织，还有来自伊朗、巴基斯坦、南非、阿拉伯联合酋长国和台湾的20多家公司和组织。 The added entities had made contributions to Pakistani nuclear activities and its missile program, advanced China’s quantum technology capabilities and hypersonic weapons development, and tried to circumvent U.S. controls on Iran, among other actions, the administration said. 政府表示，新增实体的行为包括为巴基斯坦的核活动及其导弹计划提供帮助，推动中国的量子技术能力和高超音速武器的发展，试图绕过美国对伊朗的控制等。 “We will not allow adversaries to exploit American technology to bolster their own militaries and threaten American lives,” Howard Lutnick, the secretary of commerce, said in a statement. “我们不会允许对手利用美国的技术来加强自己的军事力量，威胁美国人的生命，”商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在声明中说。 The Trump administration also expanded its penalties on Tuesday to several subsidiaries of Inspur Group, which has been a significant customer of Intel and other U.S. technology firms. The administration said those entities had aided Inspur’s development of supercomputers that were used by the Chinese military, and had tried to acquire U.S. technology in support of that. 周二，特朗普政府还将处罚范围扩大到浪潮集团的几家子公司，浪潮集团一直是英特尔和其他美国科技公司的重要客户。美国政府表示，这些子公司曾帮助浪潮开发中国军方使用的超级计算机，并试图获得美国技术以支持这一开发。 The Biden administration added Inspur’s parent company to the entity list in 2023, but after a brief pause, U.S. companies continued to do business with Inspur’s subsidiaries. Inspur Group moved its registered address to a location about a mile away from its parent group in 2023. 拜登政府于2023年将浪潮的母公司列入实体清单，但美国公司在短期暂停之后，继续与浪潮的子公司开展业务。2023年，浪潮集团将注册地址搬到了离母公司约1.5公里的地方。 Trade experts have said the impact of U.S. entity listings can be easy for companies to dodge, because the entity listing is tied to a specific name and address. 贸易专家表示，企业很容易避开被美国列入实体清单的影响，因为实体清单与特定的名称和地址挂钩。 Tuesday’s entity listings together will affect a significant portion of the Chinese market for servers, a type of computer that is necessary to generate artificial intelligence. The Trump administration also added a special designation to its restrictions to expand the penalties globally, which will stop companies from trying to bypass U.S. rules by exporting products to the Chinese firms from countries other than the United States. 周二的实体清单将影响中国服务器市场的很大一部分，服务器是一种生成人工智能所必需的计算机。特朗普政府还在其限制措施中增加了一个特别指定，将处罚范围扩大到全球，这将阻止公司试图绕过美国的规定，从美国以外的国家向中国公司出口产品。 The entity list was created under the Clinton administration to prevent adversaries from developing weapons of mass destruction, but presidents have wielded it increasingly aggressively over the past decade. 实体清单是克林顿政府为防止对手发展大规模杀伤性武器而制定的，但过去10年的几任总统越来越积极地使用该清单。 Other groups added to the list Tuesday included the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence, which the administration said was added for trying to acquire A.I. models and chips in support of China’s military modernization. 周二被列入名单的其他机构还包括北京智源人工智能研究院。政府表示，该研究院被列入名单是因为它试图获取人工智能模型和芯片，以支持中国的军事现代化。 Ana Swanson报道贸易和国际经济新闻，常驻华盛顿。她从事新闻工作已超过十年。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
TYLER PAGER2025年3月26日在美国军队对也门胡塞武装发动攻击两小时前，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯在Signal聊天中披露了战争计划。 Eric Lee/The New York Times The Trump administration is dealing with the fallout of an extraordinary leak of internal national security deliberations, disclosed in an encrypted group chat that mistakenly included a journalist from The Atlantic. 特朗普政府正在处理一场非同寻常的泄密事件的后果，该事件涉及内部国家安全讨论的泄露，相关信息被发布在一个加密的群聊中，《大西洋》月刊的一名记者被误加入了该群聊。 In the group message among cabinet officials and senior White House staff, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed specific operational details two hours before U.S. troops launched attacks against the Houthi militia in Yemen, according to The Atlantic. Michael Waltz, the national security adviser, inadvertently added Jeffrey Goldberg, the editor in chief of The Atlantic, to the group chat on Signal, a commercial messaging app. 根据《大西洋》的报道，在一个成员包括内阁官员和白宫高级幕僚的聊天群组中，国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯在美军对也门胡塞武装发动攻击的两小时前透露了行动细节。而国家安全顾问迈克尔·沃尔茨不小心将《大西洋》总编辑杰弗里·戈德堡加入了通过Signal这款商业通讯应用进行的群聊中。 Here’s the latest. 以下是最新发展。 What has the White House said? 白宫怎么说？ President Trump told NBC News on Tuesday that the leak was “the only glitch in two months, and it turned out not to be a serious one.” 特朗普总统周二告诉NBC新闻，泄密是“两个月来唯一的一次失误，而且最后证明也没那么严重”。 Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, posted on social media that “no ‘war plans’ were discussed” and “no classified material was sent to the thread.” That contradicts Mr. Goldberg, who wrote that he had not published some of the messages in the thread because he said they contained sensitive information. 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在社交媒体上发布消息称，“没有讨论‘战争计划’，”并且“没有将机密材料发送到该群聊中”。这与戈德堡的说法相矛盾，后者写道，他的文章没有公开群聊中的部分消息，他说这是因为这些信息包含敏感内容。 Mr. Goldberg’s report also raised concerns about administration officials using Signal, a nonsecure messaging platform, and setting the messages to automatically delete. Ms. Leavitt pushed back against those concerns. 戈德堡的报道还引发了人们对政府官员使用Signal这一不安全的通讯平台并将消息设置成自动删除的担忧。对此莱维特做出了反驳。 “The White House Counsel’s Office has provided guidance on a number of different platforms for President Trump’s top officials to communicate as safely and efficiently as possible,” she wrote. 她写道：“白宫法律顾问办公室已就特朗普总统的高级官员如何使用多个平台进行安全高效的沟通提供了指导。” After the Atlantic report, Brian Hughes, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said in a statement on Monday that the message thread “appears to be authentic.” Mr. Hughes said officials were “reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain.” 在《大西洋》报道之后，国家安全委员会发言人布赖恩·休斯在周一的声明中表示，群聊讨论“似乎是真实的”。休斯表示，官员们正在“审查一个错误的号码是如何被加入到该群聊的”。 The administration has tried to discredit Jeffrey Goldberg. 政府试图攻击杰弗里·戈德堡的信誉。 When Mr. Trump was first asked Monday about the report, he said he was not aware of the leak, but he immediately attacked the magazine. 当特朗普在周一首次被问及该报道时，他表示自己并不知晓泄密事件，但他立即攻击了该杂志。 “I’m not a big fan of The Atlantic,” he said. “To me, it’s a magazine that’s going out of business.” “我不是很喜欢《大西洋》，”他说。“在我看来，这是一本即将倒闭的杂志。” For years, Mr. Trump has complained about Mr. Goldberg and his publication because of an article the journalist published in 2020 that said that Mr. Trump had declined to visit a cemetery of fallen American soldiers in France because it was “filled with losers.” 多年来，特朗普一直抱怨戈德堡和他的出版物，因为后者在2020年发表了一篇文章，称特朗普拒绝访问位于法国的美国阵亡士兵墓地，因为那里“全是失败者”。 Mr. Hegseth similarly criticized Mr. Goldberg on Monday, calling him a “deceitful and highly discredited so-called journalist” after landing in Hawaii, his first stop before a weeklong trip to Asia. 赫格塞斯周一抵达夏威夷时也对戈德堡发出了类似的指责，称他是一个“虚伪且极度失信的所谓的记者”，他在夏威夷之后将开启为期一周的亚洲之行。 “Nobody was texting war plans, and that’s all I have to say about that,” Mr. Hegseth said. 赫格塞斯说：“没人用聊天软件发战争计划，我想说的就这么多。” Mr. Goldberg said “that’s a lie” on CNN in response to Mr. Hegseth’s comments. 戈德堡在CNN上回应赫格塞斯的话时说：“这是在说谎。” Will Mr. Waltz face consequences? 沃尔茨会面临后果吗？ Mr. Trump said Tuesday that Mr. Waltz would not face consequences after Mr. Goldberg wrote that the national security adviser had added him to the Signal chat. 在戈德堡的报道称是国家安全顾问沃尔茨将他加入了Signal群聊后，特朗普周二表示，沃尔茨不会面临后果。 “Michael Waltz has learned a lesson, and he’s a good man,” Mr. Trump told NBC News. The president said one of Mr. Waltz’s staff members had added Mr. Goldberg. 特朗普告诉NBC新闻：“迈克尔·沃尔茨已经吸取了教训，他是个好人。”总统表示，是沃尔茨的一名工作人员将戈德堡添加到了群聊中。 But even before Monday’s leak, Mr. Waltz faced skepticism from inside and outside the administration. Some of Mr. Trump’s most conservative allies viewed him as not loyal enough to the president while some of the Republicans he formerly served with in Congress considered him too loyal. 但即使在周一的泄密事件之前，沃尔茨就已经面临来自政府内外的怀疑。特朗普的一些最保守的盟友认为他对总统的忠诚度不够，一些曾与他在国会共事的共和党人则认为他过于忠诚。 What did Vice President JD Vance say in the chat? 副总统JD·万斯在群聊里说了什么？ In the Signal chat, Mr. Vance raised concerns about the Yemen attack, writing that he thought the administration was “making a mistake.” Mr. Vance said he worried Americans would not “understand this or why it’s necessary” to launch the attacks. He noted that only 3 percent of U.S. trade runs through the Suez Canal, a shipping route threatened by the Houthis, compared with 40 percent of European trade. 在Signal群聊中，万斯对也门袭击表达了担忧，称他认为政府“犯了一个错误”。他说，他担心美国人不会“理解这事，或为什么有必要”发起袭击。他指出，只有3%的美国贸易通过苏伊士运河，该航运路线受到胡塞武装威胁，而欧洲的贸易有40%通过该运河。 “I am willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself,” Mr. Vance wrote. He later wrote, “I just hate bailing Europe out again.” 万斯写道：“我愿意支持团队的共识，并保留我的意见。”他随后写道：“我只是受不了又要去救欧洲。” Mr. Vance’s comments revealed some disagreement within the senior ranks of the administration, a remarkable development especially from Mr. Vance, who has gone to great lengths to present a unified front with the president. A spokesman for Mr. Vance denied any dissent from the vice president. 他的评论揭示了政府高级官员之间的一些分歧，尤其是万斯出现这种情况颇为引人注目，他一直努力与总统保持统一的立场。他的发言人否认副总统持有任何异议。 “The vice president’s first priority is always making sure that the president’s advisers are adequately briefing him on the substance of their internal deliberations,” the spokesman, William Martin, said in a statement. “Vice President Vance unequivocally supports this administration’s foreign policy. The president and the vice president have had subsequent conversations about this matter and are in complete agreement.” “副总统的首要任务始终是确保总统的顾问在内部讨论的实质内容上充分地向他汇报，”发言人威廉·马丁在一份声明中表示。“万斯副总统明确支持本届政府的外交政策。总统和副总统已就此事进行了后续对话，并完全达成一致。” How are both parties responding? 两党作何回应？ Democrats are furious about the report, and they are demanding investigations into the disclosure of sensitive material. Some are also calling attention to the Trump administration’s efforts to downplay the incident, resurfacing clips of Mr. Waltz and other Trump allies criticizing Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state. 民主党人对这份报告感到愤怒，他们要求对敏感材料泄露进行调查。一些人还指出特朗普政府在试图淡化该事件，并翻出了瓦尔茨和其他特朗普盟友批评希拉里·克林顿任国务卿时使用私人邮件服务器的往事。 Ms. Clinton posted a link to the Atlantic article on social media on Monday with an emoji of two eyes and wrote, “You have got to be kidding me.” 希拉里·克林顿周一在社交媒体上转发了《大西洋》文章的链接，并配上了一个瞪大双眼的表情，写道：“这也太扯了。” Several Republicans on Capitol Hill expressed concerns about Mr. Goldberg’s inclusion in the chat and acknowledged that it was a mistake. Most, however, said they wanted a full briefing before drawing any conclusions. 国会山上的几位共和党人对戈德堡被加进群聊一事表示担忧，并承认这是一个错误。但大多数人表示希望在听取此事的完整简报后再下结论。 Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, a Pennsylvania Republican who sits on the House Intelligence Committee, said on CNN that his panel would send an inquiry to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and then determine whether a fuller investigation was warranted. But Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican of Louisiana, dismissed the idea of additional investigations or discipline for the officials involved. 宾夕法尼亚州共和党众议员、众议院情报委员会成员布赖恩·菲茨帕特里克在CNN上表示，他的委员会将向国家情报总监办公室提出质询，然后决定是否需要进行更全面的调查。但路易斯安那州共和党人、众议院议长迈克·约翰逊表示，不打算对相关官员做出进一步调查或纪律处分。 Still, some of Mr. Trump’s most loyal allies downplayed the incident. Sean Hannity, the Fox News host, said the story was a “smear” that is being “waged by the left.” 特朗普一些最忠诚的盟友还是在淡化此事。福克斯新闻主持人肖恩·汉尼蒂称这是“左派发动的抹黑行动”。 Tyler Pager是《纽约时报》白宫记者，负责报道特朗普总统及其政府。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。
托马斯·弗里德曼2025年3月26日 There is a lot of talk in Beijing this week over when President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China will meet face to face. Some Chinese experts say the two leaders need to wait a few months until Trump decides exactly what tariffs he is going to impose on China — and sees what China will do in response. 本周在北京，一个热议话题是特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平何时进行面对面的会晤。一些中国专家表示，两位领导人需要等上几个月，直到特朗普确切决定他将对中国征收哪些关税——然后再看看中国会做何反应。 Can I just butt in and say: “Excuse me, Mr. Presidents, but you two need to get together, like, tomorrow. But it’s not to discuss the golden oldies — tariffs, trade and Taiwan. 我能否冒昧插句话说：“不好意思，两位领导人，你们二位可得尽快会面，比如就明天。但会面的目的不是讨论那些老生常谈的问题——关税、贸易和台湾。 “There is an earthshaking event coming — the birth of artificial general intelligence. The United States and China are the two superpowers closing in on A.G.I. — systems that will be as smart or smarter than the smartest human and able to learn and act on their own. Whatever you both may think you’ll be judged on by history, I assure you that whether you collaborate to create a global architecture of trust and governance over these emerging superintelligent computers, so humanity gets the best out of them and cushions their worst, will be at the top.” “有一件惊天动地的大事即将来临——通用人工智能的诞生。美国和中国是两个最接近实现通用人工智能的超级大国，通用人工智能系统将和最聪明的人类一样聪明，甚至更聪明，并且能够自主学习和行动。无论你们认为历史将以什么来评判你们，我向你们保证，最关键的一点是，你们能否合作创建一个针对这些新兴的超级智能计算机的全球信任与管理架构，以便人类能够最大限度地从中受益，并缓解它带来的最坏影响。” I realize many will consider this wasted breath with all the turmoil unleashed by the new administration in Washington, but that will not deter me from making the point as loudly as I can. Because what Soviet-American nuclear arms control was to world stability since the 1970s, U.S.-Chinese A.I. collaboration to make sure we effectively control these rapidly advancing A.I. systems will be for the stability of tomorrow’s world. 我知道，鉴于华盛顿的新政府引发的种种动荡，许多人会认为我这是白费口舌，但这不会阻止我尽可能大声地阐明这一观点。因为美苏自20世纪70年代以来的核武器控制对世界稳定至关重要，同理，美中在人工智能领域的合作，以确保我们能有效控制这些快速发展的人工智能系统，对未来世界的稳定也将至关重要。 A.I. systems and humanoid robots offer so much potential benefit to humanity, but they could be hugely destructive and destabilizing if not embedded with the right values and controls. In addition, this new age must be defined by a lot of planning about what humans will do for work, and how to preserve the dignity they derive from work, when machines will be able to do so many things better than people. Millions of people possibly losing their jobs and dignity at the same time is a prescription for disorder. 人工智能系统和人形机器人能为人类带来诸多潜在的益处，但如果不赋予它们正确的价值观并加以控制，它们可能具有巨大的破坏性，甚至会破坏社会稳定。此外，这个新时代的主题必须是大量规划当机器在很多事情上做得比人好时，人类将从事什么工作，以及如何维护人类从工作中获得的尊严。成百上千万人可能同时失去工作和尊严，这将会引发社会混乱。 A veteran Chinese economist made clear to me that China is very alive to these risks: “Today, a lot of Chinese cannot find jobs. With A.I. they will not be able to find jobs forever. What happens if they cannot find appropriate jobs” because “70 percent of civil servants are robots? That will be super risky.” 一位资深中国经济学家向我明确表示，中国非常清楚这些风险：“如今，很多中国人找不到工作。有了人工智能，他们可能永远都找不到工作了。”如果因为“70%的公务员都是机器人，导致他们找不到合适的工作，那会发生什么？这非常危险”。 There is no time to lose in thinking about how we adapt, and yet we can be so nearsighted when it comes to the signs and the warnings. A decade from now, what will journalists say was the most important news story in the fall of 2024 that should have received more attention, given the long-term consequences? 有关如何适应的思考刻不容缓，然而，当面对种种迹象和警告时，我们却往往如此短视。十年之后，记者们会认为，从长期影响来看，2024年秋季最重要、本应受到更多关注的新闻事件是什么呢？ Will they say it was the second election of Donald Trump as president in November 2024? Or will they say it was Uber’s decision in September 2024 to go beyond its pilot project in Phoenix and start offering driverless, all-electric Waymo cars on its ride-hailing app in Austin and Atlanta — replacing human Uber drivers. 他们会说是唐纳德·特朗普在2024年11月第二次当选总统吗？还是会说是Uber在2024年9月做出的决定，对其凤凰城试点项目做出扩展，开始在奥斯汀和亚特兰大的叫车应用程序上提供纯电Waymo无人驾驶汽车，从而取代优步的人类司机呢？ At this point I’d vote for Uber going driverless. 在这一点上，我会投优步实现无人驾驶一票。 Will they say it was Trump’s election in November? Or will they say it was the December 2024 battle in a snowy forest near Kharkiv, Ukraine, reported by The Wall Street Journal, in which Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian bunker with four-wheeled robot drones — some mounted with machine guns or packed with explosives and backed by aerial drones from above — in a “coordinated unmanned” land and air assault “on a scale that hadn’t previously been done, marking a new chapter of warfare where humans are largely removed from the front line of the battlefield, at least in the opening stages.” 他们会说是特朗普在11月当选总统？还是会说是《华尔街日报》报道的2024年12月发生在乌克兰哈尔科夫附近一片积雪森林里的战斗？在那场战斗中，乌克兰军队使用四轮机器人（有些装备了机枪，有些装满了炸药），在上方的无人机支援下，对一个俄军掩体发动了攻击。这是一场“协同无人”陆空联合攻击，“其规模前所未有，标志着战争进入了一个新篇章，在这个篇章中，人类在很大程度上远离了战场前线，至少在战争初期是这样。” I’ll go with all-robot-no-humans Ukrainian air and land assault. 我会认为乌克兰完全由机器人发动的无人陆空攻击更重要。 How about one more — something on my mind, since I am attending a conference in China: Will they say it was Trump’s November 2024 election, or will they say it was the fact that China’s televised Lunar New Year gala this year, watched by over a billion people, featured “16 humanoid robots” taking the stage. “Clad in vibrant floral print jackets, they took part in a signature … dance, twirling red handkerchiefs in unison with human dancers,” M.I.T. Technology Review reported. In their day job, these robots work assembling electric vehicles. Dancing was just their hobby. 要不再来一个——这是我一直在想的，因为我是来中国参加一个论坛：他们会说，最重要的新闻是特朗普2024年11月的大选胜利，还是去年在中国超过十亿人观看的春节联欢晚会有“16个人形机器人”登上舞台的事实？《麻省理工科技评论》报道称：“这些机器人穿着艳丽的花坎肩，与人类舞者一起挥舞着红色手帕，表演了一场标志性的……舞蹈。”这些机器人的本职工作是组装电动汽车，跳舞只是他们的爱好。 I can see a case for humanoid robot dancers. 我能理解机器人跳舞更重要的理由 All three examples reflect the now growing consensus, as the Times technology writer Kevin Roose recently observed, that full-on A.G.I. is coming faster than most anyone thought — “very soon — probably in 2026 or 2027 but possibly as soon as this year.” 这三个例子反映了当前日益增长的共识，正如《纽约时报》科技记者凯文·鲁斯最近所观察到的那样：完整的通用人工智能正以比大多数人的预想更快的速度到来——“用不了多久——可能在2026年或2027年，但也可能就在今年。” A.G.I. is the holy grail of A.I. — single systems that can master math, physics, biology, chemistry, material science, Shakespeare, poetry and literature as well as the smartest humans but that can also reason across all of them and see connections no human polymath ever could. 通用人工智能是人工智能的终极目标——一种能够掌握数学、物理学、生物学、化学、材料科学、莎士比亚、诗歌和文学等等领域的单一系统，它的智慧能够与最聪明的人类媲美，并且能够跨越所有领域进行推理，看到人类通才从未能够看到的联系。 As Craig Mundie, a former chief research and strategy officer for Microsoft, put it to me: Probably before the end of Trump’s presidency, we will have not just birthed a new computer tool; “we will have birthed a new species — the superintelligent machine.” 正如微软前首席研究与战略官克雷格·蒙迪对我所说的：在特朗普总统任期结束之前，我们不仅将创造一种新的计算工具；“我们将创造一个新物种——超智能机器。” “Our species is carbon-based. This new one is silicon-based,” Mundie explained. “Therefore, we need to immediately begin to chart a path to coexist with this new superintelligent species and ultimately coevolve with it.” “人类是碳基的，而这个新物种是硅基的，”蒙迪解释道。“因此，我们需要立即开始规划与这个超智能新物种共存的道路，并最终与它共同进化。” We humans have lived alongside a lot of other species on this planet for a long time, “but we were always smarter than all of them,” he added. “Soon there is going to be a new one that will be smarter than we are and steadily getting smarter. We are expanding what is the highest level of intelligence on the planet — from what humans could imagine and program into computers to what computers can begin to learn themselves, which is virtually boundless.” 我们人类与许多其他物种在这个星球上共存了很长时间，“但我们总是比它们聪明，”他还说。“很快会有一个新的物种，它将比我们更聪明，并且不断变得更聪明。我们正在扩展地球上最高级别的智慧——从人类能想象并编程到计算机的东西，到计算机开始能够自己学习的东西，而这几乎是无限的。” The advances that China has made on A.I. in just the past year have made it absolutely clear that Beijing and Washington are now the world’s two A.I. superpowers. 中国过去一年里在人工智能方面取得的进展已经非常明确地表明，中国和美国现在是世界两大人工智能超级大国。 And if you thought otherwise, China’s premier, Li Qiang, opened the China Development Forum, the event that drew me to Beijing, by proudly noting how China’s recently unveiled DeepSeek A.I. system “burst onto the scene,” highlighting “the huge power of innovation and creativity of the Chinese people.” 如果你有不同的想法，中国总理李强在中国发展高层论坛开幕式上自豪地指出，中国最近推出的DeepSeek人工智能系统“横空出世”，并强调了中国人民“创新创造的巨大力量”。这个论坛正是我来到北京的原因。 On top of that, he added, “2025 could be the year of mass production of humanoid robots in China.” A recent report by Morgan Stanley described China’s dominance over the West in the humanoid robot industry, controlling a majority of the top-listed companies. These are A.I.-infused robots that move and speak remarkably like humans. 此外，他还表示：“2025年有望成为中国机器人量产的元年。”摩根士丹利最近的一份报告描述了中国在机器人行业中对西方的绝对优势，该行业的顶级企业多数由中国控制。这些是融合了人工智能的机器人，它们的动作和语言与人类非常相似。 Before these A.G.I. systems take hold and scale up, we need the two superpowers to get serious about devising a regulatory and technological framework that ensures an agreement for imbuing these systems with some kind of moral reasoning and embedded usage controls so they are prevented from being used by rogue actors for globally destabilizing activities or going rogue themselves. We need a system of governance that ensures that A.I. systems always operate and police themselves in alignment with both human and machine well-being. 在这些通用人工智能系统普及和规模化之前，我们需要这两个超级大国认真制定一个监管和技术框架，确保达成协议，使这些系统具备某种道德的推理能力和嵌入的使用控制，防止它们被不受控行为者用于全球性破坏活动，或者自己成为不受控行为者。我们需要一个管理体系，确保人工智能系统始终以符合人类和机器福祉的方式运作并自我监管。 There was a time when many people thought that such a project was something only a coalition of democracies could do — and then present it to the world. Sorry, too late. China has greatly narrowed the gap with us and surpassed the other democracies. This can’t be done without Beijing. So guess who’s coming to dinner. It’s a table for two now. Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi please step this way. History has its eyes on you both. 曾经有一段时间，许多人认为这样的项目只能由民主国家的联盟来完成——然后再呈现给世界。抱歉，太晚了。中国大大缩小了与我们的差距，并超过了其他民主国家。没有北京，这件事无法完成。所以，猜猜谁会来赴宴？现在只有一张两人桌。特朗普先生，习先生，这边请。历史正注视着您二位。 Alas, though, generating the conditions to allow for Beijing and Washington to collaborate on a uniform system for A.I. trust and governance will be no easy matter for the leaders of China and America. 不过，唉，要想创造条件，让北京和华盛顿合作建立统一的人工智能信任和治理体系，对两国领导人来说都并非易事。 Nevertheless, listening to Chinese experts and officials at this conference, I sense that the Chinese are a lot like Americans: still trying to get their minds around what new capabilities these new A.I. systems will offer. They are torn between wanting to do everything to make sure their companies win the A.I. race against American ones — so they can dominate the market — and wanting to make sure these technologies don’t destabilize their own country. 然而，听了中国专家和官员在这次会议上的发言，我感觉中国人和美国人很相像：他们仍在努力思考这些新的人工智能系统将提供什么新功能。一方面，他们想要竭尽全力，确保自己的公司在与美国公司的人工智能竞赛中获胜——这样他们就可以主导市场——另一方面，他们又想确保这些技术不会破坏自己国家的稳定。 I am hardly naïve about the level of mistrust in U.S.-China relations today — having spent the last week in both capitals — I can attest it is off the charts. So I am fully aware of how absurd it can sound calling on the two of them to trust each other to collaborate on a system of moral reasoning to ensure we get the best and cushion the worst of A.I. 我不是不知道当前美中两国之间的互信是什么状况——上周我在两个国家的首都都有逗留——我可以证明，这种不信任已经到了无以复加的地步。因此，我深知，要求两国相互信任，合作建立一个道德的推理系统，确保我们得到人工智能最好的一面，缓和最坏的一面，这听起来非常荒谬。 But our leaders should take a lesson from how software technology companies used “coopetition” (cooperation between competitors). Apple, Microsoft, Google and Meta all wanted to destroy one another in business, but they eventually realized that if they cooperated on some basic standards, rather then each going its own way, they could massively expand the markets for their otherwise independent products and services. 但是，我们的领导者应该从软件技术公司如何使用“合作竞争”（指竞争者之间的合作）中学到东西。苹果、微软、谷歌和Meta都想在商业上摧毁彼此，但它们最终意识到，如果它们在一些基本标准上进行合作，而不是各自为政，就可以为它们原本独立的产品和服务大规模扩展市场。 Once A.G.I. arrives, if we are not assured that these systems will be embedded with common trust standards, the United States and China will not be able to do anything together. Neither side will trust anything it exports or imports to the other, because A.I. will be in everything that is digital and connected. That is your car, your watch, your toaster, your favorite chair, your implant, your notepad. So if there is no trust between us and China and each of us has our own A.I. systems, it will be the TikTok problem on steroids. A lot of trade will just grind to a halt. We’ll just be able to sell each other soybeans for soy sauce. It will be a world of high-tech feudalism. 一旦人工智能到来，如果我们不能确保这些系统可以嵌入共同的信任标准，美国和中国将无法共同做任何事情。任何一方都不会信任它向另一方出口或进口的任何东西，因为人工智能将出现在所有数字化和联网的东西当中。也就是说，你的车、你的手表、你的多士炉、你最喜欢的椅子、你的医学植入物、你的笔记本。因此，如果我们和中国之间没有信任，而我们每个国家都有自己的人工智能系统，这将是加强版的TikTok问题。许多贸易将会陷入停顿。我们只能用大豆换酱油。这将是一个高科技的封建世界。 I was taken with how the Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari, who addressed a packed audience of mostly Chinese people at the forum’s session on A.I., put it. 我被以色列历史学家尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利的说法所吸引，在此次论坛的人工智能研讨会上，他向座无虚席的听众（其中大部分是中国人）发表了演讲。 “We should build more trust between humans before we develop truly superintelligent A.I. agents,” Harari said. “But we are now doing exactly the opposite. All over the world, trust between humans is collapsing. Too many countries think that to be strong is to trust no one and be completely separated from others. If we forget our shared human legacies and lose trust with everyone outside us, that will leave us easy prey for an out-of-control A.I.” “在开发出真正的超级智能人工智能代理之前，我们应该在人与人之间建立更多的信任，”赫拉利说。“但我们现在的做法恰恰相反。在世界各地，人与人之间的信任正在崩溃。太多的国家认为，要想强大，就必须不相信任何人，完全与他人隔绝。如果我们忘记了人类共同的遗产，失去了对我们以外的所有人的信任，我们就很容易成为失控的人工智能的猎物。” Together humans can control A.I., he added, “but if we fight one another, A.I. will control us.” 人类携手就可以控制人工智能，他还说，“但如果我们互相争斗，人工智能就会控制我们。” In this specific endeavor of creating trusted A.I., I don’t hesitate to say I wish President Xi and President Trump much success — and fast. 在创造可信赖的人工智能这一具体工作方面，我毫不犹豫地说，祝习近平主席和特朗普总统早日成功。 托马斯·L·弗里德曼(Thomas L. Friedman)是外交事务方面的专栏作者。他1981年加入时报，曾三次获得普利策奖。他著有七本书，包括赢得国家图书奖的《从贝鲁特到耶路撒冷》(From Beirut to Jerusalem)。欢迎在Twitter和Facebook上关注他。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
JEANNA SMIALEK, STEVEN ERLANGER2025年3月26日美国副总统万斯和国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在椭圆形办公室。他们在群聊中表示了他们对“欧洲搭便车”的厌恶同感。 Doug Mills/The New York Times Trump administration officials haven’t kept their disdain for Europe quiet. But the contempt seems to be even louder behind closed doors. 特朗普政府的官员们一直不掩饰他们对欧洲的蔑视。但这种蔑视的声音似乎在私下里还要更大。 Europeans reacted with a mix of exasperation and anger to the publication of parts of a discussion between top-ranking Trump administration officials, carried out on the messaging app Signal. The discussion, about a planned strike on Yemen, was replete with comments that painted Europeans as geopolitical parasites, and was revealed on Monday in The Atlantic, whose editor was inadvertently included in the conversation. 特朗普政府高级官员们在消息服务应用Signal的群聊中讨论的部分内容被公开后，欧洲人的反应是恼火和愤怒兼有。这些言论由《大西洋月刊》于周一披露，该杂志的主编被误加到群聊组中，讨论主要是关于打击也门的行动，但其中充斥着把欧洲人描绘为地缘政治寄生虫的批评。 “I just hate bailing out the Europeans again,” wrote Vice President JD Vance, asserting that the strikes would benefit Europe far more than the United States. “我只是受不了又要去救欧洲，”副总统万斯写道，他声称打击行动对欧洲的好处会远大于对美国的好处。 “I fully share your loathing of European freeloading,” Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, later replied. “It’s PATHETIC.” “我完全同意你对欧洲搭便车的厌恶，”美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯后来回复道。“很可悲。” The exchange seemed to show real feelings and judgments — that the Europeans are mooching and that any American military action, no matter how clearly in American interests as well, should be somehow paid for by other beneficiaries. 这些交流似乎展示了他们的真实感觉和判断——欧洲人在占便宜，美国的任何军事行动，无论多么明显地符合美国利益，都应该由其他受益方以某种形式买单。 A member of the chat identified as “SM,” and believed to be Stephen Miller, a top aide to President Trump, suggested that both Egypt and “Europe” should compensate the United States for the operation. “If Europe doesn’t remunerate, then what? If the US successfully restores freedom of navigation at great cost there needs to be some further economic gain extracted in return,” SM wrote. 群聊中的一名使用“SM”身份的成员暗示，埃及和“欧洲”都应该为这次行动向美国提供补偿，该人据信是特朗普总统的高级助手斯蒂芬·米勒。“如果欧洲不补偿，又会怎样？如果美国成功地恢复了航行自由，并为此付出了巨大代价，那就应该有进一步的经济收益作为回报，”SM写道。 特朗普政府对欧洲和乌克兰采取的立场已引发了一系列国际高层会议，包括本月在伦敦举行的会议。 The apparent disregard by administration officials of security protocols by having such a discussion — which included operational details — on a consumer chat app, even an encrypted one, prompted concern that Russia and China could be listening in. 特朗普政府官员显然无视安全规则，在一个民用聊天应用（尽管是加密的）平台上进行这种讨论（包括军事行动细节），引发了对俄罗斯和中国可能在监听的担忧。 “Putin is now unemployed: No point in spying anymore,” Nathalie Loiseau, a member of European Parliament, wrote on X, saying the leaks now came from the Americans themselves. “No point in crushing Ukraine anymore, Trump will take care of it.” “普京现在失业了：间谍活动已毫无意义，”欧洲议会议员娜塔莉·卢瓦索在X上写道，并说，现在是美国人自己来泄密了。“压迫乌克兰也已毫无意义，特朗普将亲自解决它。” The commentary in the exchange is the latest blow to one of the world’s most storied alliances, which took generations to build and strengthen but which the Trump administration has managed to weaken in mere weeks. 群聊中的言论是对世界上最有名的联盟之一的最新打击。建立和加强这个联盟是几代人努力的结果，但特朗普政府在短短几周就削弱了它。 “It is clear that the trans-Atlantic relationship, as was, is over, and there is, at best, an indifferent disdain,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of Italy’s Institute of International Affairs, who formerly advised a top E.U. official. “And at worst, and closer to that, there is an active attempt to undermine Europe.” “很明显，以前那种跨大西洋关系已不复存在，往最好处说，是一种冷漠的鄙视，”意大利国际事务研究所所长、曾为欧盟高级官员担任顾问的娜塔莉·托奇说。“往最坏处和接近最坏处说，是一种逐渐削弱欧洲的积极企图。” The European Union is, in many ways, the antithesis of the principles that Mr. Trump and his colleagues are championing. The bloc is built around an embrace of international trade based on rules. It has been at the forefront of climate-related regulation and social media user protections. 从很多方面来看，欧盟是特朗普及其同僚所倡导原则的对立面。欧盟是围绕基于规则的国际贸易而建立的，在与气候有关的监管和保护社交媒体用户方面，它也一直站在最前沿。 Europe has been on alert ever since Mr. Vance delivered a speech at a security conference in Munich last month that questioned European values and its democracy and shocked European leaders. He followed that up by warning that Europe was at risk of “civilizational suicide.” 自从万斯上个月在慕尼黑安全会议上发表讲话，质疑欧洲的价值观及其民主制度，令欧洲领导人感到震惊以来，欧洲一直处于警惕状态。万斯后来还警告说，欧洲有“文明自杀”的风险。 副总统万斯上个月在慕尼黑安全会议上的讲话震惊了欧洲领导人。 If the relationship between the United States and Europe were merely transactional, it would be relatively easy for Europeans to just spend more on the military and give Mr. Trump some sort of victory, said François Heisbourg, a French analyst and former defense official. 如果美国与欧洲的关系只是交易性质的话，欧洲人就有相对容易的办法，他们只需要增加军费开支，让特朗普获得某种胜利，法国分析师、前国防官员弗朗索瓦·埃斯堡说。 But in Mr. Vance’s speech attacking European democracy in Munich, let alone in the newly public exchange, the distaste for Europe is about more than transactions. 但从万斯在慕尼黑攻击欧洲民主的讲话、更不用说最近公开的这些交流中可以看出，对欧洲的厌恶超越了交易性质。 “Vance was quite clear: We don’t share the same values,” Mr. Heisbourg said. “万斯表达得非常清楚：我们没有相同的价值观，”埃斯堡说。 He and others, like Anna Sauerbrey, the foreign editor of Die Zeit, noted that the explicit demand for payment, rather than just political and military support, as in Iraq and Afghanistan, was new. And it ignored the fact that “the U.S. depends on global trade,” she said, and that “France, Britain and the Netherlands have deployed ships to the region” for the same purpose. The Americans, she said, “are constantly overlooking European efforts.” 他和德国《时代周报》国际版编辑安娜·索尔布雷等人指出，明确要求欧洲掏钱，而不是像在伊拉克和阿富汗战争期间那样，只要求欧洲提供政治和军事支持，这是新的做法。这种做法忽略了“美国依赖全球贸易”的事实，她说，“法国、英国、荷兰已向该地区派遣了船只，”为的是同样的目的。她说，美国人“一直无视欧洲人的努力”。 China, for example, gets most of its oil imports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and does much of its export trade with Europe through the same sea route. But no one is asking China to pay, Ms. Tocci noted. 一个例子是，中国大部分石油进口走的是曼德海峡，中国出口到欧洲的大部分贸易也走同一条海路。但没有人要求中国掏钱，托奇指出。 For months, Washington has been sending barbed statements and actions Europe’s way. 近几个月来，华盛顿一直对欧洲使用尖锐的言论和行动。 Mr. Trump has made it clear that he wants to acquire Greenland, a semiautonomous territory of Denmark, even as European leaders warn that they will defend territorial integrity. Usha Vance, Mr. Vance’s wife, and Mike Waltz, the national security adviser, are visiting the island this week, uninvited, its government says, and to an agitated response. 特朗普明确表示，他想收购属于丹麦的半自治领土格陵兰岛，尽管欧洲领导人警告说，他们将捍卫领土完整。万斯的妻子乌莎·万斯和美国国家安全顾问迈克·沃尔兹本周将访问格陵兰岛，当地政府已表示，没有邀请他们来，并对他们的即将到来作出了激烈反应。 示威者在格陵兰努克的美国领事馆外抗议美国收购格陵兰的想法，摄于本月。 Mr. Trump has also repeatedly warned that Europe must pay much more for its own defense, threatening not to come to the aid of nations that do not pay up sufficiently, and has pivoted sharply away from Ukraine. He has simultaneously rolled out plans to slap hefty tariffs on Europe and argued that the European Union was created to “screw” America. 特朗普还多次警告说，欧洲需要为自身的防务掏更多的钱，还威胁说，不会向那些没出够钱的国家提供援助，并已转向急剧疏远乌克兰的立场。同时他还推出了对欧洲征收更高关税的计划，并认为欧盟是为“敲诈”美国而成立的。 Christel Schaldemose, a Danish politician who is a center-left member of European Parliament, said the way the U.S. has been talking about the E.U. in general lately is “not helping.” 丹麦政治家、在欧洲议会属于中间偏左派的议员克里斯特尔·沙尔德莫斯说，美国最近谈论欧盟时大体上的说法对关系“没有帮助”。 “Could we start talking to each other as allies and not enemies?” she said. “我们能不能用盟友而不是敌人的方式开始交谈呢？”她问道。 Even as European leaders try to maintain the friendship, they are racing to try to bolster their defense expenditures, cognizant that it would be nearly impossible to replace American military capabilities overnight. 在欧洲领导人试图维持友谊关系的同时，他们也在争先恐后地增加国防开支，因为他们意识到，一夜之间拥有能取代美国军事能力的力量是几乎不可能的。 They are meeting on Thursday in Paris to discuss Ukraine, and NATO foreign ministers meet early next month to discuss progress. 欧洲领导人将于周四在巴黎开会讨论乌克兰问题，北约成员国的外长们将于下月初开会讨论进展情况。 They are also scrambling to strike a trade deal with the United States, with the E.U. trade commissioner headed to Washington on Tuesday to talk with his American counterparts. 他们也在努力与美国达成贸易协议，欧盟贸易专员周二已前往华盛顿与美国同行进行会谈。 But with America’s increasingly hostile attitude toward Europe, the continent’s officials are contemplating a future where the prized relationship stretching across the Atlantic, a foundation upon which decades of relative peace and prosperity have been built, might never be the same. 但随着美国对欧洲采取越来越敌视的态度，欧洲各国的官员们正在考虑这样一个未来：珍贵的跨大西洋关系可能永远不会再像以前那样，那曾是几十年来的相对和平与繁荣的基础。 来自美国、立陶宛，以及其他北约国家的士兵在德国进行训练，摄于本月。 “The international order is undergoing changes of a magnitude not seen since 1945,” Kaja Kallas, the top E.U. diplomat, said last week, echoing a line from the bloc’s defense preparedness plan, which is meant to help Europe to become more militarily independent. “国际秩序正在经历1945年以来未曾见过的巨大变化，”欧盟最高外交官卡贾·卡拉斯上周说，这个说法与欧盟的防御性备战方案中的说法如出一辙，该方案的目的是帮助欧洲在军事上更加独立。 Splintering from the United States is an expensive prospect. The E.U. has already unveiled an initiative that could be worth 800 billion euros, about $865 billion, to help European nations achieve desired military spending levels. 与美国分手是一个价格高昂的前景。欧盟已公布了一项可能值8000亿欧元（约合8650亿美元）的计划，以帮助欧洲国家实现理想的军事开支水平。 Still, the group chat leak underscores why a divorce may be necessary: The United States is not the reliable ally it once was, either rhetorically or practically. 尽管如此，群聊的泄露凸显了为什么“分手”也许是必要的：美国不再是曾经的可靠盟友，无论是在口头上还是在行动上。 It is highly unusual and possibly illegal for sensitive military plans to be discussed on a messaging app, rather than by a more secure means of communication. 在消息服务应用上讨论敏感的军事行动计划，而不是通过更安全的通信方式，是非常不寻常、甚至可能非法的做法。 That disregard for normal security procedures will “cause allies to be very reluctant to share analysis and intelligence,” said Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. forces in Europe. Barring major change, people “will assume America can’t be trusted.” 这种对正常安全程序的漠视将“导致盟友非常不愿意分享分析和情报”，曾任美国驻欧洲部队指挥官的本·霍奇斯说。除非有重大变化，人们“将假设美国不值得信任”。 Jeanna Smialek是《纽约时报》布鲁塞尔分社社长。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Steven Erlanger是时报欧洲首席外交记者，常驻柏林。他此前曾在布鲁塞尔、伦敦、巴黎、耶路撒冷、柏林、布拉格、贝尔格莱格、华盛顿、莫斯科和曼谷等地进行报道。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。
SERGE SCHMEMANN2025年3月25日 President Trump’s efforts to mute Voice of America and other U.S.-government-funded international broadcasters may not have received as much attention as his many other sallies, perhaps because these media outlets do not broadcast within the United States and so are not well known. But stifling America’s voice around the world carries serious consequences: It strips the United States of one of its most venerable and effective instruments of soft power. 特朗普总统让美国之音以及其他由美国政府资助的国际广播机构噤声的举措或许没有像他在其它领域的出击那么受关注，这可能是因为这些媒体机构并不在美国国内进行广播，因而知名度不高。但在全球范围内压制美国的声音会带来严重后果：这会让美国失去其最古老且最有效的软实力工具之一。 The order to eliminate the U.S. Agency for Global Media “to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law” was tucked into a measure also shutting down several other small government entities. As with so many of the president’s decrees, the answers to many questions remained unclear, including whether Mr. Trump had the legal authority to cut off the outlets, and whether they would be revised or fully dismantled. 那项“在最大程度上遵照适用法律的情况下”撤销美国全球媒体署的命令被夹杂在一项同时关闭其他几个小型政府机构的措施之中。和总统的许多政令一样，许多问题的答案仍不明确，包括特朗普是否拥有切断这些媒体机构的经费的法律权力，以及这些机构是会被整改还是彻底解散。 Global Media is an umbrella agency that oversees VOA and several other global media “radios,” as they’ve been collectively known — including the Office of Cuba Broadcasting, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Radio Free Asia and Middle East Broadcasting Networks. Also under the umbrella is the Open Technology Fund, formally started in 2019, which supports uncensored internet access to over two billion people. 美国全球媒体署是一个总括性机构，负责监管美国之音以及其他几家被统称为全球媒体“电台”的机构，其中包括古巴广播办公室、自由欧洲电台/自由电台、自由亚洲电台以及中东广播网。同样隶属于该机构的还有开放技术基金，该基金于2019年正式成立，致力于为超过20亿人口提供不受审查的互联网接入服务。 Collectively, the outlets reached more than 425 million listeners or viewers worldwide. VOA, which counted approximately 360 million of those people in nearly 50 languages, fell silent immediately. 这些媒体机构加起来在全球拥有超过4.25亿的听众或观众。美国之音使用近50种语言广播，受众人数约为3.6亿，该机构已在第一时间停止了广播。 No one would dispute that the radios, most with their origins in World War II and the Cold War, required updating for a rapidly changing world with rapidly evolving technology. 随着科技的飞速发展和世界的快速变化，这些大多起源于第二次世界大战和冷战时期的电台需要进行更新，没有人会否认这一点。 But they were emphatically not a waste of money or effort. For millions of people worldwide — especially in places like Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela, where access to information is jealously controlled by authoritarian regimes — the American radios were a source of trusted news and information about the world and, more important, their own countries. For many Russians, Radio Liberty was the main source of reliable information about the war in Ukraine. 但这些机构绝不是在浪费金钱和精力。对于全球成百上千万的民众，尤其是信息获取受威权政权严密控制的俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和委内瑞拉等国家的民众而言，美国的这些电台是他们获取关于世界，以及更为重要的，关于他们自己国家的可信新闻和信息的来源。对于许多俄罗斯人来说，自由电台是他们获取有关乌克兰战争可靠信息的主要来源。 The radios were also a window into America and a Western culture of openness, democracy, press freedom and civil liberties — the sort of outreach that defines “soft power,” the ability to influence the world and project American values without resorting to arms, threats, insults or punitive tariffs. 这些电台也是一扇了解美国以及西方开放文化、民主、新闻自由和公民自由的窗口，这种对外传播正是“软实力”的体现，即无需诉诸武力、威胁、侮辱或惩罚性关税就能影响世界并传播美国价值观的能力。 I spent many years as a correspondent in the Soviet Union and then Russia, and can testify to the extraordinary influence of the Western broadcasts — most notably the Russian-language broadcasts by VOA, Radio Liberty, the BBC and Deutsche Welle. In the Soviet era, all were consistently “jammed” — drowned in noise broadcast from nearby towers, which were easily identifiable by their spokes, which resembled broken umbrellas. People quickly learned how to listen anyway, either in rural areas free of jamming or by tuning to the edge of the frequency. Some recorded the broadcasts, and the tapes and transcripts quickly spread through underground networks. 我曾在苏联及后来的俄罗斯担任过多年驻外记者，可以证明西方广播——尤其是来自美国之音、自由电台、英国广播公司和德国之声的俄语广播——具有非凡的影响力。在苏联时期，这些广播都一直受到“干扰”，被附近发射塔发出的噪音淹没，这些发射塔很容易辨认，它们的天线像破损的雨伞一样。但人们很快就学会了如何收听，他们要么在没有干扰的农村地区收听，要么把收音机指针调整到频段的边缘。有些人还会录制广播内容，这些磁带和文字记录通过地下网络迅速传播开来。 I was especially familiar with the Radio Liberty broadcasts during my years in the Soviet Union because my father, Alexander Schmemann, an Eastern Orthodox priest and theologian, had a weekly program in Russian about religion and culture. The show was popular. Many of the dissidents I met tuned in regularly, and Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, for one, described to friends how he had listened “with spiritual delight.” 在苏联的那些年里，我对自由电台的广播尤为熟悉，因为我的父亲亚历山大·施梅曼是一名东正教牧师和神学家，曾在该电台有一档每周一次的俄语宗教和文化节目。这个节目很受欢迎。我遇到的许多持不同政见者都会定期收听，例如，亚历山大·索尔仁尼琴就曾向朋友们描述过他是如何“带着精神上的愉悦”收听这个节目的。 At one of the first jazz concerts in Moscow after the Soviet Union collapsed, a buzz swept through the packed hall. “Willis Conover is here!” people said. I had never heard of him, but jazz lovers in the Soviet Union grew up on the “Jazz Hour” program on VOA, which Mr. Conover hosted from 1955 until his death in 1996. At its peak, the program was listened to by up to 30 million people. That’s soft power plus. 苏联解体后，莫斯科举办了首批爵士乐音乐会，在其中一场演出上，座无虚席的大厅里传来一阵骚动。人们纷纷说道：“威利斯·康诺弗来了！”我此前从未听说过他，但苏联的爵士乐爱好者都是听着美国之音的《爵士时刻》节目长大的，康诺弗从1955年开始主持这个节目，一直到1996年去世。节目在鼎盛时期有多达3000万人收听。这就是软实力的强大之处。 Most important was news, which was the central mission of all the Western stations. While at college, I was an intern one summer on the Radio Liberty news desk, and the strict guiding rule was objectivity. The people behind the Iron Curtain who risked tuning in to a foreign broadcast, I was told, were allergic to propaganda, and would not take a big risk to get more of it. 最重要的是新闻，这也是所有西方电台的核心使命。上大学时，我曾有一个夏天在自由电台的新闻编辑室实习，当时客观性是严格的指导原则。有人告诉我，铁幕背后那些冒险收听外国广播的人对政治宣传内容极为反感，他们冒着巨大的风险可不是来获取更多宣传的。 After the Soviet Union collapsed, the radios were allowed to open bureaus inside Russia, Ukraine and elsewhere, and although their mission was now different, listeners continued to tune in for news they had learned to trust. Finally forced out of Russia as President Vladimir Putin tightened his authoritarian controls, the stations once again reverted to serving as an outside source of information, especially about Ukraine. 苏联解体后，这些电台被允许在俄罗斯、乌克兰及其他地方开办分社，尽管它们现在的使命已经不同，但听众们仍然会收听这些电台，以获取他们已经信任的新闻。随着普京总统加强了威权控制，这些电台最终被迫离开俄罗斯，它们再次成为外部信息的来源，尤其是关于乌克兰的信息。 Not surprisingly, Russia and China rejoiced at the news from Washington. “This is an awesome decision by Trump,” declared Margarita Simonyan, editor of Russia’s huge state-controlled international propaganda network, RT. “We couldn’t shut them down, unfortunately, but America did so itself.” China’s Global Times, which has long chafed over reporting on VOA, gloated that the station had now been “discarded like a dirty rag.” 毫不奇怪的是，俄罗斯和中国对来自华盛顿的这一消息感到高兴。俄罗斯庞大的国有国际宣传网络今日俄罗斯的主编玛格丽塔·西蒙尼扬宣称：“这是特朗普做出的一个了不起的决定。很遗憾我们没能关闭它们，但美国自己做到了。”长期以来一直对美国之音的报道感到恼火的中国《环球时报》幸灾乐祸地表示，美国之音现在“被本国政府嫌弃得像块脏抹布”。 Russians who had relied on Radio Liberty, meanwhile, mourned. Editors of Novaya Gazeta Europe, successors to a newspaper banned in Russia, wrote on their site that their work “will become more difficult without Radio Liberty, and many Russians will lose access to important information about what is happening in their country.” 与此同时，那些曾经依赖自由电台的俄罗斯人则感到悲痛。《新报欧洲版》的前身是一份在俄罗斯被禁的报纸，他们的编辑在网站上写道，他们的工作“一旦没有了自由电台，将变得更加困难，许多俄罗斯人将无法获取关于他们国家正在发生的重要信息”。 “During the Cold War, VOA was a lifeline for those living under tyranny, and its mission was equally relevant today,” Michael Abramowitz, the head of VOA, wrote me in an email. “Our agency was an important instrument for combating false narratives about the United States that are pushed by American geopolitical rivals like China, Iran and Russia. Those countries are spending billions on information warfare, and closing VOA will unilaterally disarm America.” “在冷战时期，美国之音是生活在暴政之下的人们的生命线，它的使命在今天同样重要，”美国之音的负责人迈克尔·阿布拉莫维茨在给我的电子邮件中写道。“要对抗中国、伊朗和俄罗斯等美国的地缘政治对手所宣扬的关于美国的虚假说法，我们这个机构是重要的工具。这些国家在信息战上投入了数十亿美元，关闭美国之音将是单方面解除美国的武装。” None of that seemed to matter for Mr. Trump. He appointed Kari Lake, a former news anchor and unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor and senator in Arizona, as a special adviser on the U.S. Agency for Global Media, and a recent White House statement referred to VOA as “the Voice of Radical America.” It appears, however, that Elon Musk — who declared VOA to be a nest of “radical left crazy people”— set his chain saw onto the radios first, before Ms. Lake could get to work. 但这一切对特朗普来说似乎都无关紧要。他任命前新闻主播、以共和党人身份竞选州长和参议员未果的卡莉·莱克担任美国全球媒体署的特别顾问，最近白宫的一份声明将美国之音称为“激进美国之音”。然而，似乎先一步对这些电台“下手”的是埃隆·马斯克，他曾宣称美国之音是“激进左翼疯子的巢穴”，在莱克能够开展工作之前就开始了行动。 What next? Like other Trump executive orders, the legality of this one is moot. Congress chartered the agency as an independent one, and the lawsuits have begun. Many Republicans were supporters of international broadcasting, but this is another battle that they seem not to be fighting. The silence is deafening. 接下来会怎样呢？和特朗普的其他行政命令一样，这项命令的合法性也存在争议。美国之音是国会特许的独立机构，相关诉讼已经开始。许多共和党人曾是国际广播的支持者，但这似乎又是一场他们不想参与的战斗。他们的沉默震耳欲聋。 Serge Schmemann1980年加入《纽约时报》，曾担任驻莫斯科、波恩、耶路撒冷和联合国分社社长。2003年至2013年，他担任巴黎《国际先驱论坛报》社论版主编。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
HELENE COOPER, ERIC SCHMITT2025年3月25日几名国防部官员表示，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯等人在Signal群聊中进行的谈话可能违反了《反间谍法》。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed war plans in an encrypted group chat that included a journalist two hours before U.S. troops launched attacks against the Houthi militia in Yemen, the White House said on Monday, confirming an account in the magazine The Atlantic. 周一，白宫证实了《大西洋月刊》(The Atlantic)杂志的报道——在美军对也门胡塞武装发动袭击两小时前，美国国防部长皮特·海格塞斯在一个加密聊天群组中透露了战争计划，群组中包括一名记者。 The editor in chief of The Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg, wrote in an article published on Monday that he was mistakenly added to the text chat on the commercial messaging app Signal by Michael Waltz, the national security adviser. 《大西洋月刊》主编杰弗里·戈德堡在周一发表的文章中写道，他被国家安全顾问迈克尔·瓦尔兹误添加到了民用通讯应用Signal的聊天群组中。 It was an extraordinary breach of American national security intelligence. Not only was the journalist inadvertently included in the group, but the conversation also took place outside of the secure government channels that would normally be used for classified and highly sensitive war planning. 这是一起重大的美国国家安全情报泄露事件。不仅这位记者无意中被加入了该群聊，而且对话发生在机密和高度敏感战争计划通常使用的加密政府渠道之外。 Mr. Goldberg said he was able to follow the conversation among senior members of President Trump’s national security team in the two days leading up to the strikes in Yemen. The group also included Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Mr. Goldberg wrote. 戈德堡称他因而得以全程关注特朗普总统的国家安全团队高级成员在也门空袭两天前的对话。该聊天群组成员还包括副总统万斯和国务卿鲁比奥，戈德堡写道。 At 11:44 a.m. on March 15, Mr. Hegseth posted the “operational details of forthcoming strikes on Yemen, including information about targets, weapons the U.S. would be deploying, and attack sequencing,” Mr. Goldberg wrote. “The information contained in them, if they had been read by an adversary of the United States, could conceivably have been used to harm American military and intelligence personnel, particularly in the broader Middle East.” 3月15日上午11点44分，海格塞斯发布了“即将对也门发动袭击的行动细节，包括有关目标、美国将部署的武器和攻击序列的信息，”戈德堡写道。“如果被美国的对手读到，其中包含的信息可能会被用来伤害美国的军事和情报人员，尤其是在更广泛的中东地区。” In an interview, Mr. Goldberg said that “up until the Hegseth text on Saturday, it was mainly procedural and policy texting. Then it became war plans, and to be honest, that sent a chill down my spine.” 在采访中，戈德堡说，“在周六海格塞斯发布这条消息之前，群聊内容主要是程序和政策方面的消息。然后就变成了战争计划，说实话，这让我脊背发冷。” Mr. Goldberg did not publish the details of the war plans in his article. 戈德堡没有在他的文章中公布作战计划的细节。 Mr. Hegseth, Mr. Goldberg wrote, said that “the first detonations in Yemen would be felt two hours hence, at 1:45 p.m. Eastern time. So I waited in my car in a supermarket parking lot.” 戈德堡在文章中写道，海格塞斯发消息称，“两小时后，也就是东部时间下午1:45，也门会发生第一次爆炸。所以我在一个超市停车场里，坐车上等着。” “If this Signal chat was real, I reasoned, Houthi targets would soon be bombed,” he added. “我当时认为，如果这个Signal群聊内容是真的，胡塞的目标很快会被轰炸，”戈德堡写道。 At around 1:55, initial airstrikes hit buildings in neighborhoods in and around Sana, Yemen’s capital, that were known Houthi leadership strongholds, according to Pentagon officials and residents. The strikes continued throughout that Saturday and into the next few days. 据五角大楼官员和当地居民表示，大约在1点55分，最初的空袭击中了也门首都萨那及其周边地区的建筑物，那里是已知的胡塞武装领导人的据点。空袭在整个周六乃至接下来数日内一直在进行。 Mr. Hegseth, Mr. Goldberg wrote, declared to the group — which included the journalist — that steps had been taken to keep the information secret. 戈德堡写道，海格塞斯向聊天群组宣布，已采取措施对这些信息保密，而记者就在这个群组之中。 “We are currently clean on OPSEC,” Mr. Hegseth wrote, using the military acronym for operational security. 海格塞斯写道，“我们目前在OPSEC方面没有问题。”OPSEC是作战安全的军事缩写用语。 Several Defense Department officials expressed shock that Mr. Hegseth had put American war plans into a commercial chat group. They said that having this type of conversation in a Signal chat group itself could be a violation of the Espionage Act, a law covering the handling of sensitive information. 几名国防部官员对海格塞斯把美国的作战计划放到一个民用聊天群里表示震惊。他们说，在Signal聊天群中进行这种类型的对话本身可能违反了《反间谍法》，该法涉及敏感信息的处理。 Revealing operational war plans before planned strikes could also put American troops directly into harm’s way, the officials said. And former F.B.I. officials who worked on leak cases described this as a devastating breach of national security. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive national security matter. 官员们表示，在打击行动开始之前披露作战计划还可能使美国军队直接处于危险之中。曾参与泄密案件的前联邦调查局官员称，这是对国家安全的严重破坏。由于讨论敏感的国家安全问题，他们要求匿名。 Former national security officials said that if personal cellphones were used in the group chat, the behavior would be even more egregious because of ongoing Chinese hacking efforts. 前国家安全官员表示，如果使用个人手机进行群聊，这种行为将更加恶劣，因为中国在持续进行黑客攻击。 Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said that the “story represents one of the most egregious failures of operational security and common sense I have ever seen.” 参议院军事委员会资深民主党人、罗德岛州参议员杰克·里德说，该报道“是我见过的行动安全和常识方面最严重的失误之一”。 “Military operations need to be handled with utmost discretion and precision, using approved secure lines of communication, because American lives are on the line,” he added. 他还说：“军事行动需要以最大限度的谨慎和精确来处理，使用经批准的安全通信线路，因为这关系到美国人的生命安全。” Republican senators faced a barrage of questions. Many said they were concerned, but most were withholding judgment until they could receive a full briefing. 共和党参议员们收到了一连串的提问。许多人表示很担心，但大多数人在听取完整简报之前都不愿做出判断。 “It appears that were mistakes were made, no question,” said Senator Roger Wicker, Republican of Mississippi and the chairman of the Armed Services Committee. “We’ll try to get to ground truth and take appropriate action.” “毫无疑问，我们似乎犯了错误，”密西西比州共和党参议员、军事委员会主席罗杰·威克说。“我们将努力弄清真相，并采取适当行动。” Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, said that he had no knowledge of the article in The Atlantic. “I don’t know anything about it,” he said, adding, “You’re telling me about it for the first time.” 特朗普在白宫对记者说，他不知道《大西洋月刊》的那篇文章。“我什么都不知道，”他说，“你是第一个告诉我的。” The Pentagon referred questions about the article to the National Security Council. Mr. Hegseth was traveling to Hawaii on Monday, his first stop on a weeklong trip to Asia. He spoke to reporters traveling with him after landing in Hawaii, called Mr. Goldberg a “so-called journalist” and, when pressed, said that “nobody was texting war plans, and that’s all I have to say about that.” 五角大楼建议由国家安全委员会回答有关该报道的问题。海格塞斯周一前往夏威夷，这是他为期一周的亚洲之行的第一站。在抵达夏威夷后，他接受了随行记者的采访，称戈德堡是“所谓的记者”，在被追问时，他说，“没人用聊天软件发作战计划，我想说的就这么多。” The White House also appeared to contradict Mr. Hegseth. “At this time, the message thread that was reported appears to be authentic, and we are reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain,” Brian Hughes, the National Security Council spokesman, said in an emailed statement. He called the thread “a demonstration of the deep and thoughtful policy coordination between senior officials.” 白宫的说法似乎与海格塞斯相悖。国家安全委员会发言人布莱恩·休斯在电子邮件声明中说，“目前，被报道的群聊消息似乎是真实的，我们正在调查一个无意中被添加到该群中的号码是如何出现的。”他称那些消息“体现了高层官员之间深入而细致的政策协调”。 The State Department spokeswoman, Tammy Bruce, said at a press briefing that she would not comment on Mr. Rubio’s “deliberative conversations,” and directed further questions to the White House. 国务院发言人塔米·布鲁斯在新闻发布会上表示，她不会对鲁比奥的“慎重谈话”发表评论，并表示进一步的问题应由白宫来回答。 The group chat also included a dissent from Mr. Vance, who called the timing of the Yemen operation a “mistake.” He and Mr. Hegseth both argued in the chat that European countries benefited from the U.S. Navy’s efforts to protect shipping lanes from Houthi attacks. 在群聊中，万斯表达了不同意见，他称也门行动的时机是个“错误”。他和海格塞斯在群聊中都声称，欧洲国家从美国海军保护航道不受胡塞武装袭击的工作中受益。 “I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now,” Mr. Vance wrote before the operation. He said he was “willing to support the consensus of the team and keep these concerns to myself.” 万斯在行动前写道，“我不确定总统是否意识到，这与他目前对待欧洲的态度有多么不一致。”他表示，他“愿意支持团队的共识，并保留我的意见”。 But he added that “I just hate bailing Europe out again.” 但他还写道，“我只是受不了又要去救欧洲。” Mr. Hegseth replied: “I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.” But, he said, “I think we should go.” 海格塞斯回答说：“我完全同意你对欧洲人搭便车的厌恶。很可悲。”但是，他写道，“我认为我们应该干这件事。” During his first term, Mr. Trump repeatedly said Hillary Clinton should have been imprisoned for using a private email server to communicate with her staff and others while she was secretary of state. Mr. Waltz, for his part, posted on social media in June 2023: “Biden’s sitting National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan sent Top Secret messages to Hillary Clinton’s private account. And what did DOJ do about it? Not a damn thing.” 特朗普在第一任期内曾多次表示，希拉里·克林顿应该因为在担任国务卿期间使用私人电子邮件服务器与工作人员和其他人通信而入狱。瓦尔兹则于2023年6月在社交媒体上发帖称：“拜登的现任国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文向希拉里·克林顿的私人账户发送了绝密信息。司法部对此做了什么？什么都没做。” In his many television appearances before he became defense secretary, Mr. Hegseth also excoriated Mrs. Clinton for using a private email server. Across social media on Monday, those criticisms were reappearing. “Hey @petehegseth_DOD, this you?” read one post, accompanying a video of Mr. Hegseth on Fox Business saying that Mrs. Clinton “betrayed her country” for “convenience.” 在出任国防部长之前，海格塞斯曾多次在电视上露面，他也曾严厉指责克林顿使用私人电子邮件服务器。周一，这些批评在社交媒体上再次出现。“嘿 @petehegseth_DOD，这个是你吗？”一条帖子写道，并附上了一段海格塞斯在福克斯商业频道上说克林顿为了“图方便”而“背叛自己国家”的视频。 Mrs. Clinton, for her part, reposted the Atlantic story on social media with one comment: “You have got to be kidding me.” 希拉里·克林顿在社交媒体上转发了《大西洋月刊》的报道，并评论道：“这可太扯了。” Michael Crowley、Adam Goldman、Maya C. Miller和Minho Kim对本文有报道贡献。 Helene Cooper是一名五角大楼记者。她此前曾任职编辑、外交记者和白宫记者。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：晋其角 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID PIERSON, KEITH BRADSHER2025年3月25日2023年，北京一座写字楼内已关闭的美思明智集团办公室。 Greg Baker/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images China has released five employees of an American corporate investigations firm, the Mintz Group, two years after they were detained as part of a crackdown by Beijing on foreign business consultancies. 中国释放了美国企业调查公司美思明智集团的五名员工。两年前，他们在北京打击外国商业咨询公司的行动中被捕。 “We understand that the Mintz Group Beijing employees who were detained, all Chinese nationals, have now all been released,” the firm said in a statement on Tuesday. 美思明智在周二的声明中表示：“据我们了解，被拘留的美思明智北京公司员工——均为中国公民——目前已全部获释。” “We are grateful to the Chinese authorities that our former colleagues can now be home with their families,” the company said. “感谢中国当局，我们的前同事现在可以回家与家人团聚，”该公司说。 The employees’ release comes as China is trying to revive overseas investment to help revive its sluggish economy. Dozens of foreign executives, including Tim Cook of Apple and Cristiano Amon, the chief executive of Qualcomm, are visiting Beijing this week to attend a development forum. Foreign investment that slowed to a crawl during Covid has not recovered in the past couple years, as weak sales and overall demand in the Chinese economy have made it less attractive. 这些员工的获释正值中国试图重振海外投资、帮助振兴低迷的经济之际。本周，包括苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克和高通首席执行官克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙在内，数十名外国高管前往北京参加一个发展论坛。中国经济的销售和总体需求疲软使其吸引力下降，过去几年中，在新冠疫情期间放缓的外国投资一直没有恢复。 Several dozen chief executives and other leaders of global companies were expected to meet with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, on Friday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, according to a person with knowledge of the planning who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment. The gathering would be the third time in 17 months that Mr. Xi has met with the leaders of multinational companies, including in San Francisco in late 2023, after a summit with President Joseph R. Biden Jr. outside the city. 据一位因未被授权置评而要求匿名的知情人士透露，数十位全球公司的首席执行官和其他领导人预计将于周五在北京人民大会堂与中国最高领导人习近平会面。这将是习近平在17个月内第三次会见跨国公司领导人，其中一次是在2023年底在旧金山郊外与拜登总统举行峰会之后。 The business forum was also attended by Senator Steve Daines of Montana, who said in an interview with The New York Times that he was trying to lay the groundwork for a meeting between President Trump and Mr. Xi. 蒙大拿州参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯也出席了前述商业论坛，他在接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，他正努力为特朗普总统和习近平的会晤奠定基础。 The Mintz employees, who have not been identified, were detained during a raid of the firm’s Beijing office in March 2023. Later that year, China fined the company about $1.5 million for engaging in “foreign-related statistical investigation activities without obtaining approval,” according to Chinese state media. 美思明智集团的员工在2023年3月对该公司北京办事处的突击搜查中被拘留，他们的身份未被公开。据中国官方媒体报道，当年晚些时候，中国对该公司处以1068万元的罚款，理由是“未依法报经批准取得涉外统计调查资格，违法从事涉外统计调查活动”。 Mintz, which is based in New York and has offices around the world, specializes in due diligence work — background checks, asset tracing, and fraud and corruption investigations — for client firms before they make investment decisions. 美思明智的总部设在纽约，在世界各地设有办事处，专门从事客户公司投资决策前的尽职调查工作，包括背景调查、资产追踪、欺诈和腐败调查。 That kind of work became the target of Mr. Xi’s government, which appears to view due diligence into Chinese supply chains and Chinese corporate activity as a threat to national security and the ruling Communist Party’s grip on power. 这类工作已成为习近平政府的目标，在其看来，针对中国供应链和中国企业活动的尽职调查威胁到了国家安全和执政的共产党对权力控制。 A month after Mintz’s office was raided, Chinese authorities visited the Shanghai offices of the U.S. management consulting firm Bain & Company and questioned its employees. 在美思明智的办公室被搜查一个月后，中国当局查访了美国管理咨询公司贝恩公司在上海的办公室，并讯问其员工。 The crackdown on foreign consultancies was also viewed as a response to the Biden administration’s introduction of export controls on advanced U.S. technology, such as semiconductors, to China. 打击外国咨询公司也被认为是在回应拜登政府限制半导体等美国先进技术向中国出口的管制措施。 Berry Wang自香港对本文有报道贡献。 David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
STEVEN LEE MYERS, STUART A. THOMPSON2025年3月25日 In her first briefing as White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt said she was “committed to telling the truth from this podium every single day.” Moments later she announced that the new administration had blocked a $50 million contract for condoms in Gaza. 在作为白宫新闻秘书的首次简报中，卡罗琳·莱维特表示，她“承诺每天都在这个讲台上说真话。”随即，她宣布新政府已阻止了一项价值5000万美元的为加沙提供避孕套的合同。 “That is a preposterous waste of taxpayer money,” she said. 她说：“这是对纳税人的钱的荒谬浪费。” It was also a preposterous claim, improbable on its face and quickly debunked. There were millions in federal grants awarded to prevent sexually transmitted diseases in Gaza, but in the province in Mozambique, not the Palestinian territory. 这本身就是个荒谬的说法，看上去就不太可能，也很快就被揭穿了。的确有数千万美元的联邦拨款用于预防加沙的性传播疾病，但这里的加沙是莫桑比克的一个省（通译“加扎”，两者英文皆为Gaza。——译注），并非巴勒斯坦的加沙。 The condoms claim went viral anyway, seeping into the political discourse that President Trump has used to justify his sweeping push to slash the federal government. 尽管如此，关于避孕套的说法还是被疯传，成为特朗普总统的政治话语的一部分，用于解释他大肆裁撤联邦政府机构的合理性。 Mr. Trump’s first four years in the White House were filled with false or misleading statements — 30,573 of them, or 21 a day on average, according to one tally. Back then, though, aides often tried to play down or contain the damage of egregious falsehoods. 特朗普上一次入主白宫的四年中，虚假或误导性言论层出不穷——有一项统计称多达30573条，平均每天21次。不过，在那时，助手们经常试图淡化或遏制严重虚假言论造成的损害。 This time, Mr. Trump is joined by a coterie of cabinet officials and advisers who have amplified them and even spread their own. Together, they are effectively institutionalizing disinformation. 这一次，特朗普的小圈子内阁官员和顾问也加入进来，他们放大了这些信息，甚至散布自己的信息。他们共同将虚假信息制度化。 While it is still early in his term, and many of his executive orders face legal challenges that could blunt the impact of any falsehoods driving them, Mr. Trump and his advisers have ushered the country into a new era of post-truth politics, where facts are contested and fictions used to pursue policy goals. 特朗普尚在任职之初，他的许多行政命令还面临法律挑战，可能会削弱任何虚假信息的影响力，但他和他的顾问们已经将美国带入了一个后真相政治的新时代，在这个时代，事实受到质疑，虚假信息被用来追求政策目标。 Mr. Trump justified the pardons of hundreds of rioters convicted of the violence, including assaults on police officers, at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, by maintaining that “they didn’t assault” anyone. He attacked Canada, a NATO ally, by claiming fentanyl was pouring across the border, when in fact less than 1 percent of the drug was traced to the country last year. 2021年1月6日在国会大厦发生的暴力事件中，数百名骚乱者被判定犯有袭警等罪行，特朗普为赦免他们辩解称，“他们没有袭击”任何人。他攻击加拿大这个北约盟国，声称芬太尼正在源源不断地从美加边境流入，事实上，去年追踪到的芬太尼中不到1%来自加拿大。 Brooke Rollins, Mr. Trump’s agriculture secretary, boasted on X that she had canceled a $600,000 contract to study the menstrual cycles of transgender men, when in fact the grant financed a study on using natural fibers like cotton, wool and hemp in feminine hygiene products. 特朗普的农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯在X上吹嘘说，她已经取消了一份价值60万美元、用于研究跨性别男性月经周期的合同，而事实上，这笔拨款在资助一项关于在女性卫生用品中使用棉、羊毛和大麻等天然纤维的研究。 Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the vaccine skeptic who now runs the Department of Health and Human Services, claimed that the measles vaccine routinely kills people every year, though scientists say that is false. 疫苗怀疑论者小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪目前负责卫生与公共服务部，他声称每年都有人因麻疹疫苗死亡，但科学家们表示这是错误的。 目前执掌卫生与公众服务部的疫苗怀疑论者小罗伯特·肯尼迪声称每年都有人因麻疹疫苗死亡，但科学家们说这是错误的。 Audrey McCabe, an analyst at Common Cause, a nonpartisan government watchdog, said the administration had pursued a strategy of “disinformation overload” that was overwhelming not only its opponents but also the judicial system. 无党派政府监督机构“共同事业”的分析师奥黛丽·麦凯布表示，美国政府推行的“虚假信息超载”战略不仅让其对手不堪重负，也让司法系统陷入困境。 “How do we push back on this when it’s coming from someone who was elected as president and those he’s decided to have close to him?” she said. 她说：“对于这种来自当选总统和他安插在自己身边的人的虚假言论，我们该如何反击呢？” False narratives that once percolated in the darker corners of the internet are now advanced by Mr. Trump and his appointees and amplified by a media echo chamber, muddying the political discourse and compounding a broader erosion of trust in institutions themselves. 曾经在互联网阴暗角落潜滋暗长的虚假言论，如今由特朗普及其任命的官员推崇，并通过媒体的回声室放大，搅浑了政治话语，并加剧了公众在更大层面上对制度本身的不信任。 Elon Musk, the technology executive leading a crusade against federal spending, has repeatedly spread disinformation, including the claim about the condoms for Gaza. He has acknowledged mistakes but presses on unchastened. 埃隆·马斯克这位领导着一场反对联邦开支运动的科技高管曾多次散布虚假信息，包括关于为加沙地带提供安全套的说法。他承认错误，但仍不做出改变。 He more recently called Social Security “the greatest Ponzi scheme of all time,” implying that one of the most popular government programs is a criminal activity. 最近，他又称社会保障是“有史以来最大的庞氏骗局”，暗示最受欢迎的政府项目之一是一种犯罪活动。 埃隆·马斯克走下“空军一号”，他最近称社会保障是“有史以来最大的庞氏骗局”。 Many remarks like that could be construed as exaggerations for rhetorical effect. Other falsehoods emanating from the administration have appeared to be misstatements of facts, perhaps unintentional. Still others arguably fall into the category of disinformation as intentional attempts to mislead Americans. 许多类似的言论可以被理解为夸张或是为了修辞效果。其他一些来自政府的不实言论似乎是对事实的错误陈述，也许是无意的。还有一些则可以说属于有意误导美国民众的虚假信息。 Mr. Trump’s second term has already elevated a new generation of online influencers to prominence, many of whom echo his politics back and forth in posts, news articles, interviews or commentary. He has even brought them into the small White House press pool, which has traditionally operated as a professional, independent chronicler of the president’s every movement and utterance. 特朗普的第二任期已经让新一代网络影响者崭露头角，他们中的许多人在帖子、新闻文章、采访或评论中来回呼应特朗普的政治主张。他甚至让他们进入白宫记者团，也就是传统上以专业、独立的方式记录总统一举一动的那个小群体。 One of them was Brian Glenn, a correspondent for Real America’s Voice, a right-wing streaming and cable channel founded in 2020 that has spread misinformation and conspiracy theories. It was Mr. Glenn who hectored Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, for not wearing a suit during his Oval Office meeting with Mr. Trump last month, giving voice to grumblings from White House aides. 其中之一是布赖恩·格伦，他是《真正的美国声音》的记者，该频道是一家成立于2020年的右翼流媒体和有线电视频道，一直在传播虚假信息和阴谋论。在上个月特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基的椭圆形办公室会晤中，正是格伦责备泽连斯基没有穿正装，表达了白宫助手们的不满。 “A lot of Americans,” he claimed, about Mr. Zelensky, “have problems with you not respecting the office.” 他声称，“很多美国人”对泽连斯基“不尊重总统”感到不满。 For Mr. Trump’s supporters, the current moment has become a war over the truth that, for now, they are winning. 对于特朗普的支持者来说，当前的时刻已经成为一场争夺真相的战争，而他们目前是这场战争的赢家。 “We are waging a 21st-century information warfare campaign against the left,” Jesse Watters, the Fox News personality, said last month. 福克斯新闻名嘴杰西·沃特斯上个月说：“我们正在发动一场针对左翼的21世纪信息战。” “It’s like grass-roots guerrilla warfare,” he added. “Someone says something on social media, Musk retweets it, Rogan podcasts it, Fox broadcasts it. By the time it reaches everybody, millions of people have seen it.” “这就像一场草根阶层的游击战，”他还说。“有人在社交媒体上发表言论，马斯克转发，罗根播客谈论，福克斯播出。当它传到每个人的耳中时，已经有数百万人看到了它。” In some cases, officials have tried to deflect questions about the false statements. A spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Human Services pointed to an opinion piece that Mr. Kennedy wrote for Fox News, in which he wrote that vaccines could protect people from measles, while also arguing that “good nutrition” remains “a best defense against most chronic and infectious illnesses.” 在某些情况下，官员们试图回避有关虚假言论的问题。卫生与公众服务部的一位发言人推荐了肯尼迪为福克斯新闻撰写的一篇评论文章，他在文章中写道，疫苗可以保护人们免受麻疹的伤害，但同时他也认为，“良好的营养”仍然是“预防大多数慢性病和传染病的最佳方法”。 特朗普总统在佛罗里达州棕榈滩的马阿拉戈庄园接受《真正的美国声音》记者布赖恩·格伦的采访。 And the Department of Agriculture said in a statement that though the contract Ms. Rollins had canceled was in fact for a study of natural fibers “on a surface level,” there was an “educational component” that referred to transgender men. The grant proposal used the word “transgender” once in a summary identifying the populations that might benefit from the research on natural fibers. 农业部在一份声明中表示，虽然农业部长罗林斯取消的合同确实“表面上”是对天然纤维的研究，但其中有“教育部分”提到了跨性别男性。在确定可能从天然纤维研究中受益的人群的摘要中，拨款提案使用了一次“跨性别者”一词。 Other moves by Mr. Trump have reflected animus to efforts to track and identify misinformation and malign foreign influence in the name of free speech. He has moved to dismantle the government agencies responsible, including one created during his first term at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. 特朗普的其他举措反映出，他对追踪和识别虚假信息以及恶意外国影响的努力存有敌意，他的这些举措是以言论自由的名义进行的。他已着手解散负责这些工作的政府机构，包括在他第一任期内成立的网络安全和基础设施安全局。 He has done so when many of the industry guardrails against the spread of disinformation have already unraveled under political and legal pressure from the right. 而他在这样做的同时，许多防止虚假信息传播的行业防范措施已经在右派的政治和法律压力下瓦解。 Days before Mr. Trump returned to the White House, Meta’s chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, announced that the company would end its third-party fact-checking program on Facebook, Instagram and Threads, embracing Republican claims that flagging lies was too often politically motivated. The company intends to shift to using Community Notes, a crowdsourced fact-checking effort used by Mr. Musk at X, the platform he bought in 2022. 在特朗普重返白宫的前几天，Meta公司首席执行官马克·扎克伯格宣布，该公司将终止其在Facebook、Instagram和Threads上的第三方事实核查计划，这是在认同共和党的说法，即标记谎言往往是出于政治动机。该公司打算转而使用“社区笔记”，这是马斯克在他2022年收购的X平台上使用的一种众包事实核查方式。 Mr. Trump’s supporters sometimes depict his false or exaggerated statements as negotiating strategies. Mr. Trump himself has described prevarication as a means to an end. “If you say it enough and keep saying it,” he said once at a rally in 2021, “they’ll start to believe you.” 特朗普的支持者有时将他的虚假或夸张言论描述为谈判策略。特朗普自己也把捏造事实描述为达到目的的一种手段。他曾在2021年的一次集会上说：“如果你说得足够多，并且一直说下去，他们就会开始相信你。” Steven Lee Myers自旧金山报道关于错误信息和虚假信息的新闻。自1989年加入《纽约时报》以来，他曾自世界各地报道新闻，包括莫斯科、巴格达、北京和首尔。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Stuart A. Thompson撰写有关虚假和误导性信息如何在网上传播，以及如何影响世界各地的人们的文章。他主要关注错误信息、虚假信息和其他误导性内容。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Ziyu Qing 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
ANTON TROIANOVSKI2025年3月25日莫斯科的圣巴西尔大教堂。俄罗斯和美国官员周一在沙特阿拉伯举行会谈，商讨部分停火协议，以停止俄罗斯打击黑海能源设施和船只的做法。 Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press President Trump says he is focused on stopping the “death march” in Ukraine “as soon as possible.” 特朗普总统说，他的重点是“尽快”结束乌克兰的“死亡行军”。 But for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, cease-fire talks with Mr. Trump are a means to much broader ends. 但对俄罗斯总统普京来说，与特朗普进行停火谈判是达到更广泛目标的手段。 Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia on Monday to deepen their negotiations about technical details of a partial cease-fire to halt attacks on energy facilities and on ships in the Black Sea. While Ukraine says it’s ready for a full truce, Mr. Putin has made it clear that he will seek a wide range of concessions first. 俄罗斯和美国官员周一在沙特阿拉伯举行会晤，就达成停止对黑海能源设施和船只袭击的部分停火协议的技术细节进行深入谈判。虽然乌克兰表示已做好全面停火的准备，但普京清楚地表明，他首先要寻求广泛的让步。 The upshot: The Kremlin appears determined to squeeze as many benefits as possible from Mr. Trump’s desire for a Ukraine peace deal, even as it slow-walks the negotiations. Viewed from Moscow, better ties with Washington are an economic and geopolitical boon — one that may be achieved even as Russian missiles continue pounding Ukraine. 结果是：克里姆林宫在缓慢地推进谈判，同时似乎决心从特朗普要达成乌克兰和平协议的愿望尽量榨取利益。从莫斯科的角度来看，与华盛顿建立更好的关系在经济和地缘政治上非常有好处，即使俄罗斯导弹继续袭击乌克兰，这也有可能实现。 Interviews last week with senior Russian foreign-policy figures at a security conference in New Delhi suggested that the Kremlin saw negotiations over Ukraine and over U.S.-Russia ties as running on two separate tracks. Mr. Putin continues to seek a far-reaching victory in Ukraine but is humoring Mr. Trump’s cease-fire push to seize the benefits of a thaw with Washington. 上周在新德里举行的安全会议上对俄罗斯外交政策高层人士的采访表明，克里姆林宫认为有关乌克兰的谈判和有关俄美关系的谈判是在两个不同轨道上进行的。虽然普京继续寻求在乌克兰取得影响深远的胜利，但他也想迎合特朗普推动停火的努力，以获取同华盛顿缓和关系所带来的好处。 Vyacheslav Nikonov, a deputy chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the lower house of the Russian Parliament, said that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin were developing a “bilateral agenda” that was “not connected to Ukraine.” 俄罗斯议会下院外交事务委员会副主席维亚切斯拉夫·尼科诺夫表示，特朗普和普京正在制定“与乌克兰无关”的“双边议程”。 俄罗斯总统普京已明确表示，他要在与乌克兰达成停火协议之前寻求大范围的让步。 “Ukraine is running its course,” Mr. Nikonov said in an interview on the sidelines of the New Delhi conference, called the Raisina Dialogue. “The offensive is ongoing,” Mr. Nikonov added. “But I think that for Putin, relations with America are more important than the question of Ukraine specifically.” “乌克兰事务正在按部就班地进行，”尼科诺夫在新德里名为“瑞辛纳对话”的会议间隙接受采访时说。“虽然攻势仍在继续，”尼科诺夫还说。“但我认为，对普京来说，与美国的关系比具体的乌克兰问题更为重要。” Engaging with Mr. Trump, Moscow’s thinking seems to go, could unlock economic benefits as basic as spare parts for Russia’s Boeing jets and geopolitical gains as broad as a reduction in NATO’s presence in Europe. What’s less clear is whether Mr. Trump will use those hopes as leverage to get a better deal for Ukraine, and whether he will at some point lose patience with Mr. Putin. 莫斯科的想法似乎是，与特朗普建立关系可能会带来经济利益（比如为俄罗斯的波音飞机获取备件这样基本的问题）以及地缘政治利益（比如减少北约在欧洲的存在这样广泛的问题）。目前不清楚的是，特朗普是否会利用莫斯科的这些希望将其当作筹码，为乌克兰争取更好的协议，以及他是否会在某个时候对普京失去耐心。 “Mr. Trump likes quick deals,” said Aleksandr A. Dynkin, an international affairs specialist who advises the Russian Foreign Ministry. “If he sees that there are big difficulties, he may be disappointed and cast this problem aside.” “特朗普喜欢尽快达成协议，”为俄罗斯外交部提供咨询的国际事务专家亚历山大·登金说。“如果他发现有很大的困难，他也许会失望，将这个问题抛在一边。” As a result, Mr. Putin seems to be pulling out all the stops to hold Mr. Trump’s interest. 因此，普京似乎正在尽一切努力吸引特朗普的兴趣。 Meeting in Moscow with the White House envoy Steve Witkoff this month, Mr. Putin handed over a “beautiful portrait of President Trump” commissioned from a Russian artist, Mr. Witkoff said in an interview released on Saturday. 本月，在莫斯科与白宫特使史蒂夫·维特科夫见面时，普京向后者转交了一幅委托俄罗斯艺术家创作的“美丽的特朗普总统肖像”，维特科夫在上周六发布的采访中公开了这件事。 “It was such a gracious moment,” Mr. Witkoff told the former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. “那是个非常亲切的时刻，”维特科夫对福克斯新闻前主持人塔克·卡尔森说。 俄罗斯无人机夜间袭击乌克兰东部第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克地区造成的破坏，摄于本月。 On Ukraine, Mr. Putin has shown no sign of budging from his far-reaching goals — a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO, a rollback of the Western alliance in Central and Eastern Europe, limits on Ukraine’s military, and some level of influence over Ukraine’s domestic politics. 在乌克兰问题上，普京没有放弃自己远大目标的丝毫迹象，他希望得到乌克兰永远不加入北约的承诺，令西方联盟减少在中欧和东欧的存在，限制乌克兰的军力，并对乌克兰的国内政治保持某种程度的影响。 Feodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said that Russia would seek a “road map” to a broader deal before agreeing to any cease-fire. 莫斯科世界经济与国际关系研究所所长费奥多尔·沃伊托洛夫斯基称，俄罗斯在同意任何停火之前将寻找达成更广泛协议的“路线图”。 He also said that Russia could accept a United Nations peacekeeping force in Ukraine as long as it did not include troops from NATO countries. 他还表示，俄罗斯可以接受联合国向乌克兰派维和部队的做法，只要维和部队不包括来自北约国家的部队。 “For Russia, the long-term perspective is more valuable than a tactical cease-fire,” said Mr. Voitolovsky, who serves on advisory boards at the Russian Foreign Ministry and Security Council. “We can emerge with a model that will allow Russia and the United States, and Russia and NATO, to coexist without interfering in each other’s spheres of interests,” he added. “对俄罗斯来说，长远视角比战术停火更有价值，”在俄罗斯外交部和安全委员会担任顾问的沃伊托洛夫斯基说。“我们能找到一种模式，让俄罗斯与美国、俄罗斯与北约在互不干涉对方利益范围的情况下共存，”他还说。 To achieve such a deal, Russia is appealing to Mr. Trump’s business-minded focus. Mr. Voitolovsky contended that broad agreement over Ukraine was a prerequisite for U.S.-Russian cooperation, and that Mr. Trump, “as a businessman,” understood that Russian assets were currently undervalued. 为达成这种协议，俄罗斯试图打动特朗普的商业头脑。沃伊托洛夫斯基认为，就乌克兰问题达成广泛协议是俄美合作的先决条件，而“作为一名商人”，特朗普了解俄罗斯的资产目前被低估的情况。 Mr. Dynkin, the Russian international affairs specialist, said that the Kremlin could remove the United States from its list of “unfriendly countries” — a classification that restricts American companies’ ability to do business in Russia. 俄罗斯国际事务专家登金称，克里姆林宫可以把美国从其“不友好国家”名单中删除，该名单限制了美国公司在俄罗斯开展业务的能力。 He said that Moscow was particularly interested in negotiations over the aviation sector, given the challenges that Russian airlines face in servicing their American-made jets. The United States could allow the export of airplane spare parts and reinstate direct flights to Moscow, he said; Russia could let American airlines fly over Siberia, a right that Russia withdrew in 2022. 他说，考虑到俄罗斯航空公司在维修美制飞机方面的挑战，莫斯科对有关航空业务的谈判尤其感兴趣。他说，美国可以允许向俄罗斯出口飞机零部件，并且恢复直飞莫斯科的航班；俄罗斯可以允许美国航空公司飞越西伯利亚，俄罗斯在2022年停止了美国航空公司的这项权利。 Anastasia Likhacheva, dean of international affairs at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, said it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would deliver quick and far-reaching sanctions relief. 莫斯科高等经济学院国际事务系主任阿纳斯塔西娅·利哈切娃表示，特朗普不太可能迅速提供影响深远的制裁减免。 But she said a thaw in relations with the United States could lead to reduced enforcement of sanctions and make it easier for Russian companies to operate globally by sending a signal that Russia was no longer a problematic partner. 但她说，与美国缓和关系可能会减少这些制裁的执行力度，并发出俄罗斯不再是有问题的合作伙伴这一信号，让俄罗斯公司在全球开展业务变得更容易。 “Such a detox,” she said, “could be useful and will expand our menu of possibilities.” “这样的解毒也许有用，而且会让我们的可能性范围进一步扩大，”她说。 Anton Troianovski是《纽约时报》莫斯科分社社长。他报道关于俄罗斯、东欧、高加索和中亚地区的新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。
DAVID E. SANGER2025年3月24日特朗普总统周五宣布了建造下一代隐形战斗机的项目。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times When President Trump announced on Friday that the United States would move ahead with a long-debated project to build a stealthy next-generation fighter jet, the message to China was clear: The United States plans to spend tens of billions of dollars over the next decade, probably far longer, to contain Beijing’s ability to dominate the skies over the Pacific. 特朗普总统上周五宣布，美国将推进争论已久的下一代隐形战斗机项目，这是向中国发出的明确信息：美国计划在未来10年乃至更长时间里花费数百亿美元遏制北京掌控太平洋空域的能力。 But here on earth, the reality has been very different. 但在我们脚踏的土地上，现实却截然不同。 As the Department of Government Efficiency roars through agencies across government, its targets have included some of the organizations that Beijing worried about most, or actively sought to subvert. And, as with much that Elon Musk’s DOGE has dismembered, there has been no published study of the costs and benefits of losing those capabilities — and no discussion of how the roles, arguably as important as a manned fighter, might be replaced. 政府效率部在政府各机构采取轰轰烈烈的行动，其目标包括了一些北京最担心或积极寻求破坏的组织。而且，就像埃隆·马斯克的政府效率部肢解的许多东西一样，目前还没有关于失去这些能力的成本和收益的公开研究报告，也没有人讨论如何取代这些可以说与载人战斗机同样重要的角色。 On the list of capabilities on life support is Radio Free Asia, a 29-year-old nonprofit that estimates its news broadcasts reach 60 million people in Asia each week, from China to Myanmar, and across the Pacific islands where the United States has been struggling to counter China’s narratives about the world. It furloughed all but 75 of its Washington staff members on Friday, trying to stay on the air while court cases develop on Trump officials’ moves to defund U.S. government-supported media. 自由亚洲电台是一家有29年历史的非营利性机构，据估计，其新闻广播每周覆盖亚洲从中国到缅甸乃至太平洋诸岛的6000万人口，美国一直在这些地方努力反驳中国关于世界的叙事。周五，该电视台大部分工作人员被强制休假，只有75名华盛顿员工仍然在岗，努力保持节目播出，与此同时，特朗普官员停止向美国政府支持媒体拨发经费的行动所引起的诉讼仍在继续。 At the Pentagon, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth eliminated the Office of Net Assessment, an internal think-tank. With an annual budget that accounted for a few seconds of Pentagon spending each year, the office tried to think ahead about the challenges the United States would face a decade or two in the future — such as the new capabilities of artificial intelligence, autonomous weapons and the hidden vulnerabilities of supply chains for military contractors. 在五角大楼，国防部长皮特·海格塞斯裁撤了内部智库“网络评估办公室”。这个办公室的年度预算在五角大楼支出中显得微不足道，但它试图就美国在未来10年或20年将面临的挑战做出前瞻性的思考——比如人工智能和自主武器带来的新能力，以及军事承包商供应链的隐患。 It was a revered institution, what a Wall Street Journal editorial this past week called “The Office that Won the Cold War.” Mr. Hegseth said in a statement that it would be reconstituted in some unspecified way “in alignment with the Department’s strategic priorities,” though its value was that it challenged conventional thinking about those priorities. 这是一个受人尊敬的机构，被《华尔街日报》上周的一篇社论称为“赢得冷战的办公室”。海格塞斯在一份声明中说，它将以某种“与国防部的战略重点保持一致”的未指明方式进行重组，尽管该机构的价值在于挑战了关于这些重点的传统思维。 Over at the Department of Homeland Security, a series of cyberdefenses have been stripped away, at a moment when China’s state-backed hackers have been more successful than at any time in recent memory. 在国土安全部，一系列网络防御措施被裁撤，而此时，中国政府支持的黑客正取得空前的成果。 Among those dissolved, at least for the time being, is the Cyber Safety Review Board, created on the model of the National Transportation Safety Board, which examines aircraft accidents and tries to extract lessons learned. The cybersecurity board was just beginning to take testimony on how Chinese intelligence bored deep inside America’s largest telecommunications firms, including the system the Justice Department uses to monitor its “lawful intercept” system, which places wiretaps on people suspected of committing crimes or spying — including Chinese spies. 至少目前已被解散的机构还有网络安全审查委员会。该委员会是以负责调查飞机事故并试图从中吸取教训的美国国家运输安全委员会为模版成立的。网络安全委员会刚刚开始听取有关中国情报机构如何深入美国最大电信公司的证词，包括司法部用于监控其“合法拦截”系统的系统，“合法拦截”对涉嫌犯罪或从事间谍活动的人进行窃听，包括中国间谍在内。 Now the board has been disbanded. No one at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency seems able to say what has happened to the investigation into one of the most successful penetrations of American networks, or who is now responsible for figuring out why American telecommunications firms were caught unawares, for more than a year, by China’s Ministry of State Security. 现在委员会已经解散。美国网络安全和基础设施安全局似乎没有人能够说得清，对美国网络最成功入侵事件之一的调查进展如何，也没有人能够说得清，现在是谁负责查明，为何美国电信公司在一年多的时间里毫无防备被中国国家安全部入侵。 The list goes on, more evidence that in its first two months the new administration has been devastatingly efficient in tearing things down, but painfully slow to explain how their actions fit into their broader strategy. 这样的例子还有很多，更多证据表明，新政府上任的前两个月里，在拆除现有机构方面表现得极其高效，但在解释他们的行动如何符合更广泛的战略方面却慢得令人痛苦。 All this has the Chinese celebrating. As the Voice of America was being dismantled and fell silent, The Global Times, a mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party, wrote that “the so-called beacon of freedom, VOA, has now been discarded by its own government like a dirty rag.” 所有这一切都让中国人欢欣鼓舞。在美国之音被裁撤并陷入沉寂之际，中国共产党的喉舌媒体《环球时报》写道，“美国之音这块所谓‘自由灯塔’的招牌，如今已被本国政府嫌弃得像块脏抹布。” China is still trying to take its measure of the new administration, which is putting new sanctions on Chinese entities that buy Iranian oil, but is also talking about wiping out the CHIPS and Science Act. The law not only provided federal funding to jump-start the production of advanced semiconductors in the United States, but provided billions for advanced work in a range of key technologies, from batteries to quantum computing, that China is subsidizing. 中国仍在试图对美国的这届新政府做出评估，新政府在对购买伊朗石油的中国实体实施新的制裁，同时又在考虑废除《芯片与科学法案》。该法案不仅为启动美国先进半导体的生产提供联邦资金，还为从电池到量子计算等一系列关键技术的先进研究提供了数十亿美元的资金，而中国正在为这些研究提供补贴。 “It’s a contradiction, as the Chinese say, that we are cutting back on our instruments of national power while saying that we are stepping up our competition with Beijing,” said Michael J. Green, chief executive of the United States Study Center at the University of Sydney in Australia. “When we reveal human rights abuses or Chinese misinformation, it’s another form of competition with China. And getting rid of it only creates a vacuum that Beijing is going to try to fill. And we are already seeing that happening.” “一方面说我们要削减国家力量的工具，另一方面又在说我们要加强与北京的竞争，用中国人的话说，这是矛盾的，”澳大利亚悉尼大学美国研究中心的首席执行官迈克尔·格林说。“揭露侵犯人权的行为或中国的错误信息，是我们与中国竞争的另一种形式。裁掉它只会造成一个真空，北京将试图填补这个真空。我们已经看到这种情况在发生。” The speed of the dismantlement has left many Asia experts a bit stunned, because they know the new aircraft — which Mr. Trump said would be called the F-47, clearly in homage to his own second term — will not contribute to American deterrence for a decade, if it is on time. 美国拆除机构的速度让许多亚洲问题专家感到有些震惊，因为他们知道，这种新飞机——特朗普说它将被命名为F-47，显然是向他的第二任期致敬——即使按时交付，也不会在10年内为美国的威慑力做出贡献。 “The charge for the United States is to deter war with China without capitulation and to compete effectively across all the areas of soft power,” Richard Fontaine, the chief executive of the Center for a New American Security and a former Republican aide to John McCain in the Senate, said on Friday. “The United States has an array of tools to do this, including humanitarian aid, development assistance, support for democracy abroad, and strategic communications efforts. Strangely, these are the efforts most under threat by the new cost-cutting teams.” “美国的责任在不退让的前提下通过威慑防止与中国的战争，并在所有软实力领域进行有效竞争，”新美国安全中心首席执行官理查德·方丹周五表示，他曾在参议院担任约翰·麦凯恩的共和党助手。“美国有一系列的手段来做到这一点，包括人道主义援助、发展援助、对海外民主的支持以及战略沟通努力。奇怪的是，这些努力正受到新的成本削减团队的最大威胁。” “If it goes too far,” he warned, “it will amount to unilateral disarmament in the world’s most important contest.” “如果做得太过火，”他警告说，“就等于在世界上最重要的较量中单方面裁军。” It is hard to find an understandable theme to the cuts; some are based on perceived acts of disloyalty, or old grudges, or a sense that even state-financed media or think tanks are inhabited by anti-Trump liberals. 很难为这些削减找到一个可以理解的主题；有些是基于被认为的不忠行为，也有些是旧怨，还有些是基于一种感觉——即使是国家资助的媒体或智库中也充斥着反特朗普的自由派。 Sometimes it is especially mystifying. The Office of Net Assessment, for example, was mostly staffed by career civilians or uniformed military, who are asked to think outside the box: How would a prolonged economic downturn in China affect its leaders’ thinking about Taiwan? What happens to warfighting when manned aircraft — like the newly announced jet fighter — can be regularly outmaneuvered by autonomous weapons? 有些地方尤其显得令人费解。例如，网络评估办公室的工作人员大多是职业文职人员或穿制服的军人，他们被要求跳出固有思维定式考虑问题：中国长期的经济低迷将如何影响其领导人对台湾的看法？当有人驾驶飞机——比如新发布的喷气式战斗机——的机动能力被自主武器轻松超越时，战争会怎样发展？ The cuts at Radio Free Asia, which broke many of the biggest stories about the internment camps China has built to “re-educate” Uyghurs in Xinjiang, are among the most mystifying. Its broadcasts have been attacked by Beijing, which has gone to great lengths to censor the reports and broadcast their own narrative, often on YouTube and X. 自由亚洲电台曾报道过许多关于中国在新疆为“再教育”维吾尔人建立拘禁营的重大新闻，它的裁员是最令人费解的事件之一。它的广播受到了北京的攻击，后者不遗余力地审查这些报道，并经常在YouTube和X上宣传自己的叙事。 Bay Fang, the president of Radio Free Asia, a nonprofit that gets its $60 million budget from a congressionally approved disbursement, said in an interview that she doubted the organization was specifically targeted. 自由亚洲电台是一家非营利组织，其6000万美元的预算来自国会批准的拨款。台长方贝在采访中说，她怀疑该电台是否被特别针对。 DOGE and the White House were gunning for Voice of America, which has hundreds of millions of listeners and readers, and which Mr. Trump has denounced as “the Voice of Radical America.” In one of his executive orders, he said he would “ensure taxpayers are no longer on the hook for radical propaganda.” (Almost all of Voice of America’s staff of 1,300 journalists have been put on paid leave.) 政府效率部和白宫对美国之音发起了攻击，拥有数亿听众和读者的美国之音被特朗普谴责为“激进美国之音”。在他的一项行政命令中，他说他将“确保纳税人不再为激进的宣传埋单。”（美国之音的1300名记者员工几乎都被要求带薪休假。） 自由亚洲电台办事处称，资助该电台的联邦拨款已终止。 “You have only to look at the way dictators in the region are celebrating our defunding,” Ms. Fang said in an interview. “We provide a voice that counters their propaganda and shines a light into dark corners they’d rather leave untouched.” The result, she said, is that “we are an essential way that America wins trust among the people living in these authoritarian countries. Shuttering RFA is not only their loss, but America’s.” “你只要看看该地区的独裁者如何庆祝我们的资金被取消就知道了，”方贝在接受采访时说。“我们发出的声音反击他们的宣传，照亮他们不愿触及的黑暗角落。”她说，“我们是美国赢得这些专制国家人民信任的重要途径。关闭亚洲自由电台不仅是这些人民的损失，也是美国的损失。” Winning trust, however, is hard to quantify. It takes years, and the results are not as easy to demonstrate as showing off a new fighter jet and, in the case of the new F-47, the semiautonomous attack drones that fly alongside. 然而，信任的赢得是很难被量化的。这需要花费数年的时间，而且结果并不像展示一架新型战斗机那样容易，就新型F-47而言，还包括展示与其协同飞行的半自主攻击无人机。 Radio Free Asia’s budget is so small that Ms. Fang said she was pretty certain the nonprofit was “collateral damage” as the administration moved to defund the U.S. Agency for Global Media, which also supports Voice of America, Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty. 自由亚洲电台的预算非常少，因此方贝说，她非常确定该非营利组织是美国政府削减美国全球媒体机构资金的“附带损害”，美国全球媒体机构还支持美国之音、自由欧洲电台和自由电台。 The defunding is taking place even before the Senate has confirmed Mr. Trump’s choice to head the global media agency, L. Brent Bozell III, a conservative political activist. He has picked Kari Lake, the pro-MAGA former journalist who lost a Senate race in Arizona, as the new head of Voice of America, but for now she is only a “special adviser” because Mr. Trump fired the board members that could have replaced the current leader. 在参议院确认特朗普选择的全球媒体机构负责人、保守派政治活动家布伦特·博泽尔三世的任命之前，裁撤就已经开始。他选择了支持“让美国恢复伟大荣光”的前记者、曾在亚利桑那州的参议员竞选中失利的卡里·莱克担任美国之音的新负责人，但目前她只是一名“特别顾问”，因为特朗普解雇了本可以取代现任领导人的董事会成员。 This administration clearly regards “soft power” as a largely irrelevant concept. But the lack of it leaves a vacuum that Beijing will happily fill. 本届政府显然认为，“软实力”在很大程度上是一个无关紧要的概念。但这种实力的缺失会留下一个北京乐于填补的真空。 “It seems self-defeating that while China mounts unrelenting cyberattacks, builds a Navy to defeat the U.S. Pacific fleet, sends ‘wolf-warrior’ diplomats far afield, and created alternatives to the dollar that America pulls inward and closes off avenues of information to the Chinese people,” said Paul Kolbe, a career C.I.A. officer who spent much of his career countering Soviet propaganda and covert operations. “中国发动无情的网络攻击，建立一支能击败美国太平洋舰队的海军，派遣‘战狼’式的外交官到遥远的海外，创造美元的替代品，而美国却向内收缩，并关闭了中国人民获得信息的渠道，这似乎是在自取灭亡，”中情局职业官员保罗·科尔比说。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在打击苏联的宣传和秘密行动。 Speaking from Jakarta, Mr. Kolbe answered his own question: “We affirm Chinese beliefs that they are ascendant, and that our decline is accelerating.” 在雅加达接受采访的科尔比说：“我们是在巩固中国人的信念——他们正在崛起，而我们正在加速衰落。” David E. Sanger报道特朗普政府和一系列国家安全问题。他在时报任职超过40年，著有数本关于美国国家安全挑战的书。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
CLAIRE FAHY2025年3月24日美国联邦法律赋予政府特工在边境入境点搜查他人财产的权利，包括手机和笔记本电脑。 Joe Raedle/Getty Images In recent weeks, a flurry of international visitors attempting to enter the United States from other countries have been denied entry at border checkpoints, leading to either deportations to their home countries or days or weeks of detention. 最近几周，大批试图从其他国家进入美国的国际旅客在边境检查站被拒绝入境，他们要么被遣返回本国，要么被拘留数天或数周。 A 28-year-old British woman arrived in Britain earlier this week after she was held at an immigration detention center in Washington State for three weeks. She had attempted to enter the United States from Canada, and questions arose at the land-border crossing whether she had the correct visa. 本周早些时候，一名28岁英国女子在华盛顿州的一个移民拘留中心关押三周后回到了英国。她此前试图从加拿大进入美国，在陆路边境口岸，关于她是否持有正确签证的问题引起了怀疑。 Her ordeal came shortly after two German tourists in separate incidents were deported after trying to enter the United States from Mexico. Both had spent weeks in a detention center in San Diego, and both said they were unclear as to why they had been detained and deported. 在她经历这场磨难不久前，有两名德国游客在试图从墨西哥进入美国后被遣返。两人都在圣地亚哥的一个拘留中心待了数周，他们都表示不清楚自己为何被拘留和遣返。 The incidents have sparked international concern over what travelers can expect at U.S. border crossings. Most citizens of most European countries have for years enjoyed visa-free travel, for up to 90 days, to the United States. 这些事件引发了国际社会对旅客在美国边境口岸可能遭遇情况的担忧。多年来，大多数欧洲国家的大多数公民都享有免签前往美国旅行的待遇，最长可达90天。 Here’s what to know about travel visas and rights for international visitors entering the United States. 以下是进入美国的国际旅客需要了解的旅行签证和权利方面的信息。 The basics of entering and exiting the U.S. 进出美国的基本要求 People seeking to enter the United States who are not U.S. citizens must have a valid passport that is not set to expire within six months. Additionally, most people need either a visa or, for citizens of countries participating in the visa-free travel agreement, an Electronic System for Travel Authorization, known as an ESTA. 非美国公民想要进入美国，必须持有在未来六个月内不会过期的有效护照。此外，大多数人需要签证，或者对于参与免签旅行协议国家的公民来说，需要申请旅行授权电子系统（简称ESTA）。 ESTAs are applied for online by submitting a photo (or computer scan) of a valid passport, as well as an email address, home address, phone number and emergency contact. 申请ESTA需要在线提交有效护照的照片（或电脑扫描件），以及一个电子邮件地址、家庭住址、电话号码和紧急联系人信息。 For citizens of countries that are not part of the visa-free program, most vetting for visas occurs at consulates in visitors’ home countries, said Jeff Joseph, an immigration lawyer in Denver. Consulate officials will look for signs that people plan to overstay their tourist visas, or intend to work, among other things. 丹佛的移民律师杰夫·约瑟夫表示，对于不属于免签计划国家的公民，大多数签证审核在旅客本国的领事馆进行。领事馆官员会留意是否有逾期滞留的意图，或者是否有工作的打算等情况。 The visa — or the authorization — is just an entry document to get people to the airport or a land border, Mr. Joseph said. It does not guarantee entry to the United States. Once a traveler arrives, they have to prove that they intend to use the visa as directed. 约瑟夫说，签证或授权仅仅是让人们到达机场或陆路边境的入境文件，并不保证能够进入美国。旅客抵达后必须证明自己打算按照签证的规定来使用签证。 Immigration officials will ask routine questions, usually regarding the purpose of the visit, the duration of the stay, where travelers plan to stay, and what they plan to do. Visitors can be taken for a second round of questioning, which is longer and more detailed. 移民官员会询问一些常规问题，通常涉及访问目的、停留时长、旅客计划的住宿地点以及他们打算做什么。旅客可能需要接受第二轮询问，询问的时间更长、更详细。 Most common visas for visitors 游客最常见的签证类型 The United States has three categories of visas for nonimmigrant visitors: a visitor visa for those who want to enter temporarily for business purposes, known as a B-1; a tourism visa, known as a B-2; and then a combination visa for both purposes — a B-1/B-2. 美国为非移民游客提供三类签证：一种是供那些因商务目的临时需要入境的人使用的访问签证，称为B-1签证；一种是旅游签证，称为B-2签证；还有一种是兼具两种目的的组合签证——B-1/B-2签证。 While the visas themselves are valid for up to a decade, visitors are only allowed to stay in the country for six months at most. 虽然这些签证本身的有效期最长可达十年，但游客最多只能在美国停留六个月。 Travelers with these tourist visas are not allowed to study, work a permanent job, do any paid performances, arrive as a member of a crew on an aircraft or ship, work in foreign press or take up permanent residence, according to the State Department. 据美国国务院规定，持有这些旅游签证的旅客不允许学习、从事长期工作、进行任何有偿演出、以飞机或船舶乘组人员身份入境、在外国媒体工作或取得永久居留权。 To obtain these visas, prospective visitors must complete an online application, provide required documents such as a passport and photo, and schedule a visa interview. The interviews cost $185. 为了获得这些签证，有意入境的人员必须完成在线申请，提供所需文件，如护照和照片，并预约签证面试。面试费用为185美元。 According to the State Department, the Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, officials “have authority to permit or deny admission to the United States.” 美国国务院、国土安全部和美国海关与边境保护局规定，官员“有权允许或拒绝（旅客）进入美国”。 Countries with visa-waiver programs 实行免签计划的国家 当国际旅客抵达边境口岸时，移民官员会询问一些常规问题，通常涉及访问目的、停留时长、旅客计划的住宿地点以及他们打算做什么。 The visa-waiver program, which allows most citizens to travel to the United States for business or tourism purposes for up to 90 days, applies to 43 countries. In return, U.S. citizens can travel to those countries for a similar length of time without a visa. 免签计划允许大多数公民以商务或旅游目的前往美国旅行，最长可达90天，该计划适用于43个国家。作为回报，美国公民也可以在类似时长内免签前往这些国家旅行。 The program began in 1986 and is seen as a “security partnership” with U.S. allies. 该计划始于1986年，被视为美国与其盟友之间的一种“安全伙伴关系”。 Travelers still need a valid ESTA in order to enter the country. The applications cost $21 and the authorizations are active for two years. The ESTA must be obtained at least 72 hours before boarding a flight. 旅客仍然需要有效的ESTA才能进入美国。申请费用为21美元，授权有效期为两年。必须在登机前至少72小时获得ESTA。 There is fine print — for example, you cannot obtain an ESTA if you visited certain countries after certain times, such as Cuba on or after Jan. 12, 2021. If you are not eligible for the ESTA, you must obtain a tourist visa. 其中有一些细则——例如，如果你在特定时间之后访问过某些国家，就无法获得ESTA，比如在2021年1月12日及之后访问过古巴。如果你没有资格获得ESTA，就必须申请旅游签证。 Those entering the United States with an ESTA are not allowed to study or work a permanent job. 凭借ESTA进入美国的人不允许学习或从事长期工作。 In this process, visitors “waive” a lot of rights, Mr. Joseph said, including waiving the right to contest deportation. Because of that, people using this program can be subject to mandatory detention. 约瑟夫说，在这个过程中，旅行者“放弃”了很多权利，包括放弃对被遣返提出异议的权利。正因为如此，使用该计划的人可能遭到强制拘留。 What rights do visitors have? 游客有哪些权利？ U.S. federal law gives government agents the right to search people’s property, including their phones and laptops, at border entry points. They do not need to be suspected of wrongdoing in order to be searched, according to the American Civil Liberties Union. 美国联邦法律赋予政府特工在边境入境点搜查他人财产的权利，包括他们的手机和笔记本电脑。根据美国公民自由联盟的说法，这样的搜查不需要首先存在不当行为的怀疑。 All visitors have the right to remain silent. But the burden of proof rests with visa holders. For example, if an officer asks if someone plans to work on their tourist visa, and that person remains silent, the officer is likely to deny them entry, Mr. Joseph said. 所有游客都有权保持沉默。但签证持有者负有举证责任。例如，约瑟夫说，如果一名官员询问某人是否打算持旅游签证工作，而那个人保持沉默，官员很可能会拒绝其入境。 If a person is found inadmissible during questioning, they can withdraw their intent to enter the country and may then be allowed to travel back to their home country. Their visa is canceled and they often get the next flight home. But an officer can deny the withdrawal, at which point the visitor is detained. 如果一个人在接受询问时被认定为不可入境，他们可以撤回入境意图，然后可能被允许返回自己的国家。他们的签证将被取消，通常会搭乘下一班航班回国。但官员可以拒绝他们的撤回，在这种情况下，游客就会被拘留。 Because these confrontations occur technically outside the country, the rights outlined in the U.S. Constitution do not apply, Mr. Joseph said, and detainees are not necessarily entitled to a lawyer. The government has about 90 days to deport people. That period can be extended if detainees don’t cooperate by providing the correct travel documents, at which point they can be subject to criminal proceedings. Following an order of removal, people are barred from entering the U.S. for five years. 约瑟夫说，因为这些状况严格来说发生在美国境外，美国宪法中规定的权利并不适用，被拘留者不一定有权请律师。政府有90天左右的时间来遣返这些人。如果被拘留者不配合提供正确的旅行文件，这一期限可以延长，届时他们可能会面临刑事诉讼。接到驱逐令的人未来五年不得进入美国。 Claire Fahy为《纽约时报》报道纽约市及其周边地区。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：经雷 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER, MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年3月24日周六，参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯和中国国务院副总理何立峰在北京。戴恩斯希望成为特朗普政府与中国政府之间的中间人。 Pool photo by Ng Han Guan Since President Trump began his second term in January, no high-level officials from the United States have met with their counterparts in China, even as the world’s two largest economies have taken turns imposing steep tariffs on each other. 自特朗普总统在1月开始第二个任期以来，尽管世界上最大的两个经济体轮番对彼此征收高额关税，但美中两国没有举行过任何高级别官员会晤。 In the absence of official meetings, Senator Steve Daines of Montana has cast himself as a go-between. Mr. Daines met with Vice Premier He Lifeng, who oversees many economic issues for China, on Saturday and was set to meet Premier Li Qiang, the country’s second-highest official, on Sunday. 在没有正式会晤的情况下，蒙大拿州参议员史蒂夫·戴恩斯扮演了中间人的角色。上周六，戴恩斯与负责中国许多经济事务的国务院副总理何立峰会面，并于周日与中国第二号官员李强总理会晤。 In an interview with The New York Times on Saturday after the meeting with Mr. He, Mr. Daines, a Republican member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he urged China to take effective action to halt the export of chemical precursors for fentanyl. 戴恩斯周六在与何立峰会面后接受《纽约时报》采访时表示，他敦促中国采取有效行动，制止芬太尼化学前体的出口。戴恩斯是参议院外交关系委员会的共和党成员。 “I met with President Trump a few days before I came over, and he was pleased that I was coming to communicate his ‘America First’ message and, importantly, to make sure that Chinese leaders knew the seriousness of the fentanyl issue, and the role that China can play in stopping the shipment of precursors to the Mexican cartels,” Mr. Daines said. “在我来这里的几天前，我与特朗普总统见了面，他很高兴我来传达他的‘美国优先’信息，更重要的是，要确保中国领导人知道芬太尼问题的严重性，以及中国在阻止向墨西哥贩毒集团运送前体方面可以发挥的作用，”戴恩斯说。 Chinese officials have said that the fentanyl crisis is rooted in an American failure to curb demand for the drug, and that Beijing has taken effective measures to limit shipments of fentanyl and its chemical precursors. China’s cabinet issued a report earlier this month on its fentanyl measures, and Mr. Daines said this was being studied by American officials. 中国官员表示，芬太尼危机的根源在于美国未能遏制对这种毒品的需求，中国政府已采取有效措施限制芬太尼及其化学前体的运输。中国国务院本月早些时候发布了一份关于芬太尼措施的报告，戴恩斯称美国官员正在研究这份报告。 Mr. Daines said he was trying to lay the groundwork for a meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping, China’s top leader. “This visit is the first step to arrange and set up the next step, which will be a very important meeting between President Xi and President Trump — when that occurs, I don’t know, where it occurs, I don’t know.” 戴恩斯表示，他正在为特朗普总统与中国最高领导人习近平的会晤奠定基础。“此行是为安排和筹备下一步做准备，这将是习近平主席与特朗普总统之间一次非常重要的会晤——何时发生，我不知道，在哪里发生，我也不知道。” The White House has not named Mr. Daines as acting on its behalf. But Mr. Daines is one of Mr. Trump’s top allies in Congress. He was the first member of the Republican leadership in the Senate to endorse Mr. Trump in 2023 for a second term at a time when many Republican senators were leery of seeing Mr. Trump return to the White House. 白宫并未指派戴恩斯代表其行事。但他是特朗普在国会的主要盟友之一。2023年许多共和党参议员对特朗普重返白宫持谨慎态度时，戴恩斯是第一个为他的竞选背书的参议院共和党领导人物。 “Given Senator Daines’s relationship to Donald Trump, China certainly wants to learn from him about Trump’s China policy intentions — whether he still wants to make a deal with China, and if so, what the deal would look like,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. 复旦大学国际问题研究院院长吴心伯表示：“鉴于戴恩斯参议员与特朗普的关系，中国肯定希望从他那里了解特朗普的中国政策意图——他是否仍然希望与中国达成协议，如果是的话，协议会是什么样的。” China also wants Senator Daines to “bring a message to Donald Trump that China wants to sit down to talk with the U.S. side and to avoid further escalation of the tensions,” Mr. Wu said. 吴心伯表示，中方还希望戴恩斯参议员“向唐纳德·特朗普传达一个信息，即中方希望与美方坐下来谈判，避免紧张局势进一步升级”。 Mr. Trump has imposed 20 percent tariffs on goods from China and threatened more. China wants to head off further tariffs. 特朗普已对来自中国的商品征收20%的关税，并威胁征收更多关税。中国希望避免进一步加征关税。 “There’s a window of opportunity before early April for China and the U.S. to engage each other, and Senator Daines’s visit could play a pivotal role,” Mr. Wu said. “在4月初之前，中美之间有一个相互接触的机会窗口，戴恩斯参议员的访问可能会起到关键作用，”吴心伯说。 Mr. Daines said that he was not focusing on tariffs with China, because the Office of the United States Trade Representative has not yet finished a policy review. 戴恩斯称，他没有把重点放在与中国的关税问题上，因为美国贸易代表办公室尚未完成政策审查。 Mr. Trump has said he plans to meet with Mr. Xi, without specifying details. China has said nothing publicly about a meeting. But the contacts between working-level administration officials that typically precede such a meeting have been absent so far during Mr. Trump’s second term. 特朗普曾表示他打算与习近平会晤，但没有具体说明细节。中国方面则未公开提及任何会晤。然而，在特朗普第二个任期内，通常在此类会晤前会进行的工作层级政府官员之间的接触至今尚未发生。 Mr. Xi makes all important decisions in China, particularly on foreign policy. That makes summits with American presidents particularly important in setting the trajectory of bilateral relations. The two leaders met in 2017 when Mr. Xi went to Mar-a-Lago, in Florida, and Mr. Trump went to China. 中国所有的重要决策都由习近平做出，尤其是在外交政策方面。这使得与美国总统的峰会在确定双边关系走向时尤为重要。两位领导人曾于2017年会晤，当时习近平访问了佛罗里达州的马阿拉歌庄园，而特朗普也在当年访问了中国。 The lack of engagement with Washington until now has led some in Beijing to begin to doubt whether Mr. Trump is sincere in his expressed desire to meet Mr. Xi, said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington. 华盛顿史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示，至今仍缺少与华盛顿的接触，让北京的一些人开始怀疑特朗普是否真心希望与习近平会面。 “They see him changing his position rapidly on a number of issues,” Ms. Sun said. “That translates into an almost fatalism for the Chinese, that they should aim to prepare for the worst case scenario, that’s their conclusion.” “他们看到他在许多问题上的立场说变就变，”孙韵说。“这对中国人来说意味着几乎只能听天由命，他们应该为最坏的情况做好准备，这就是他们的结论。” Mr. Daines said he also expressed concern about China’s barriers to imports, beyond just tariffs, during his visit to Beijing. He declined to provide any specifics. But Montana politicians have long argued that China’s intermittent halts on imports of beef from the state are unfair trade barriers, and not the result of any actual concerns about mad cow disease, as Beijing contends. 戴恩斯表示，他还表达了对中国除关税之外的进口壁垒的关切。他拒绝提供具体细节。但蒙大拿州的政界人士长期以来一直认为，中国间歇性地停止从该州进口牛肉是不公平的贸易壁垒，而不是像中国政府所辩称的那样，是出于对疯牛病的实际担忧。 Mr. Daines lived for six years in southern China in the 1990s as a project manager for Procter & Gamble, the American consumer products giant. 上世纪90年代，戴恩斯曾作为美国消费品巨头宝洁公司的项目经理在中国南方生活过六年。 This weekend’s trip is Mr. Daines’s sixth to China since his election to the Senate in 2014, making him one of the few members of Congress who have continued traveling to the country even as relations have deteriorated. 本周末的行程是戴恩斯自2014年当选参议员以来的第六次中国之行，这使他成为在美中关系恶化的情况下仍坚持前往中国的少数国会议员之一。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。 获取更多RSS： https://feedx.net https://feedx.site
储百亮, AMY CHANG CHIEN2025年3月24日上周五，台湾总统赖清德访问台北松山空军基地。 Ann Wang/Reuters After Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, launched a broad drive this month against what he warned was expanding Chinese subversion and spying, the backlash was swift. 本月，台湾总统赖清德针对他所警告的中国日益扩大的颠覆与间谍活动发起了一场大规模行动，随后迅速引发了强烈反弹。 Across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing hit back, sending a surge of military planes and ships near the island and warning that he was “playing with fire.” In Taiwan, Mr. Lai’s opponents accused him of dangerously goading China. 台湾海峡对岸的北京发起反击，派出大量军机和军舰靠近台湾，并警告赖清德正在“玩火”。在台湾，赖清德的反对者指责他危险地挑衅中国。 But Mr. Lai is wagering that he can — and, his supporters say, must — take a harder line against Chinese influence now, notwithstanding the threats from Beijing and the possibility that Taiwan’s opposition parties will dig in deeper against his agenda. 尽管面临来自北京的威胁，且台湾反对党可能会采取更多措施来反对他的议程，但赖清德正在打赌，他现在能够对中国的影响采取更强硬的立场，他的支持者也认为他必须这样做。 Mr. Lai appears to have concluded that China will limit its actions against Taiwan while Beijing focuses on trying to negotiate with President Trump over the escalating trade war, said David Sacks, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who monitors Taiwanese affairs. 美国外交关系委员会关注台湾事务的研究员大卫·萨克斯表示，赖清德似乎已得出结论，在北京一心试图与特朗普总统就不断升级的贸易战进行谈判之际，中国将克制对台湾的行动。 “The best guess is that he assessed that, if he was going to do this, he should do it at a time when China doesn’t want something to complicate its discussions with the United States,” Mr. Sacks, in an interview, said of Mr. Lai’s security steps. “最有可能的是，他认为：如果他要这么做，就应该在中国不希望出现什么事情使得与美国的谈判复杂化的时候做，”萨克斯在采访中谈到赖清德的安全措施时说。 2023年，台湾举行军事演习。赖清德总统正在采取措施加强针对中国的安全保障。 Taiwan’s political parties have for decades argued over whether to try to work with or distance the island from neighboring China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, to be taken by force if Beijing leaders so decide. The contention has taken on a sharper edge since Mr. Lai declared on March 13 that China was a “foreign hostile force” exploiting Taiwan’s freedoms to “divide, destroy, and subvert us from within.” 几十年来，台湾各党派一直在争论是应该试图与邻近的中国合作，还是与之保持距离。中国声称台湾是其领土，如果北京领导人决意如此，可以使用武力攻占台湾。自赖清德于3月13日宣称中国是“境外敌对势力”，利用台湾的自由“在台湾内部进行分化、破坏、颠覆等活动”以来，这种争论变得更加激烈。 He laid out 17 steps to fight back, including restoring military courts to try Taiwanese military personnel accused of espionage and other security crimes. He wants to more closely monitor Taiwanese people’s contacts with China to stop what he said was Beijing’s political exploitation of religious, educational and cultural exchanges. He demanded greater disclosure about Taiwanese politicians who visit China. Many such politicians belong to the opposition Nationalist Party. 他提出了17项反击措施，包括恢复军事法院审判被指控犯有间谍罪和其他安全罪的台湾军人。他希望更密切地监视台湾人与中国的联系，以阻止他所说的北京利用宗教、教育和文化交流进行政治干预。他要求对访问中国的台湾政界人士的信息进行更多披露。这些政客中的很多人属于反对党国民党。 “We have no choice but to take even more proactive measures,” Mr. Lai said. “我们没有选择，必须采取更积极的作为，”赖清德说。 Beijing despises Mr. Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party, accusing them of being separatists. Chinese officials quickly denounced Mr. Lai’s speech, especially his use of the term “foreign hostile force.” Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party, which favors ties and talks with China, accused Mr. Lai needlessly fanning tensions. 北京鄙视赖清德和他所在的民进党，指责他们是分裂分子。中国官员迅速谴责了赖清德的讲话，尤其是他使用的“境外敌对势力”一词。主张与中国建立联系与对话的台湾反对党国民党指责赖清德无端煽动紧张局势。 台湾国防部发布的一张照片显示，3月，台湾军方人员在一个未公开的地点对海军快速布雷艇进行准备工作。 “Specifically singling out mainland China and the Chinese Communist Party is to some degree a provocation,” Hsu Chiao-hsin, a prominent Nationalist lawmaker, said in an interview. “This will trigger even more tensions across the strait.” “特別去点出中国大陆、去点出中共，其实就是某种程度地去挑衅，”著名国民党立法委员徐巧芯在接受采访时表示。“那就会发起（导致）两岸更加紧张。” Nationalist politicians said they would resist at least some of Mr. Lai’s proposed steps. They argue that reinstating military courts, which were abolished in 2013 after protests over abuses of soldiers, is backsliding. “Many of these 17 steps restrict people’s civil rights,” Mrs. Hsu said. 国民党政治人物表示，他们将抵制赖清德提出的至少部分措施。他们认为，恢复军事审判是一种倒退。2013年，军事审判在因军人遭虐待而引发的抗议活动后被废除。“这个17条里面，有很多都是在限制人民的公民权利，”徐巧芯说。 Ko Chih-en, another Nationalist Party legislator, accused Mr. Lai of unfairly casting his domestic critics as “red” tools of Beijing. “Don’t make it like anyone with any connection to China is given a red hat so that everyone is in fear.” 另一名国民党立法委员柯志恩指责赖清德不公平地将国内批评者描绘成北京的“红色”工具。“不用好像处处只要是跟中国有任何的关联，每个人就要被框上一个红帽子，让大家处于这种恐惧。” The rising political acrimony could further complicate Mr. Lai’s plans, including perhaps most crucially a proposed increase in military spending meant to mollify Washington. President Trump and his team have said that Taiwan should sharply raise its defense budget, to as much as 10 percent of its economy, up from the current budgeted 2.45 percent. 政治紧张局势加剧可能会使赖清德计划的推进更加复杂，其中最关键的可能是为安抚华盛顿而提出的增加军费开支的计划。特朗普总统及其团队表示，台湾应大幅提高国防预算，从目前占经济产出的2.45%提高到10%。 Mr. Lai vowed last month to use an additional “special budget” later this year to push overall defense spending to more than 3 percent of the economy. But the increase must win approval from Taiwan’s legislature, where the Nationalists and a smaller party, the Taiwan People’s Party, hold a majority. 赖清德上个月承诺，将在今年晚些时候动用一笔额外的“特别预算”，将国防总开支提高到经济产出的3%以上。但这一增幅必须获得台湾立法院的批准，国民党和规模较小的台湾民众党在立法院中占多数席位。 Mr. Lai may be thinking that despite their anger at him, Taiwan’s opposition parties will ultimately back the planned increase in military spending, Mr. Sacks said. 萨克斯表示，赖清德也许认为，尽管台湾反对党对他感到愤怒，但最终他们会支持增加军费开支的计划。 “I think that part of Lai’s calculus is also that if the opposition played games with his proposed defense spending increase, that would get Washington’s attention in a way they really don’t want,” Mr. Sacks said. “我认为赖清德的部分盘算还在于，如果反对党利用他提出的增加国防开支的提议来做动作，那将以他们并不希望的方式引发华盛顿的关注，”萨克斯说。 1月，反对党国民党立委参加2025年中央政府预算辩论。 When Taiwan’s main annual budget passed this year, the opposition imposed cuts and conditions that Mr. Lai’s government said would hamper government operations. The opposition parties have said the cuts were aimed at wasteful spending, and Taiwan’s military preparedness would not be hurt by their measures. 今年台湾的主要年度预算案通过时，反对党强行削减开支并附加条件，赖清德政府称这些措施会妨碍政府的运作。反对党称，削减开支是为了防止浪费，台湾的军事准备不会受到这些措施的影响。 “My sense is that President Lai will eventually be able to get a special budget passed by the legislature, but at some political costs,” said Russell Hsiao, the executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington. “The opposition parties will make him and the ruling party pay a political price, even though, eventually, they will go along with it — in part because they know that Washington is paying close attention.” “我的感觉是，赖清德总统最终能够让立法院通过特别预算，但要付出一些政治代价，”华盛顿的全球台湾研究所执行长萧良其说。“反对党会让他和执政党付出政治代价，尽管他们最终会同意这笔预算，部分原因是他们知道华盛顿正在密切关注。” Negotiations over the special budget could be protracted and tense, even if both sides generally agree on more military spending, said Raymond Cheng-en Sung, the vice president of the Prospect Foundation, a government-funded institute in Taipei. “The limited window of opportunity that we have for getting this done could still vanish,” Mr. Sung said. 位于台北的政府资助机构远景基金会副执行长宋承恩表示，即使双方基本同意增加军费开支，关于特别预算的谈判也可能会很漫长，且气氛紧张。“把这件事解决的机会窗口很有限，而且仍然是可能消失的，”宋正恩说。 Several Nationalist lawmakers, including Richard Yeong-Kang Chen, a former admiral, said they broadly supported a rise in military spending. But the polarized atmosphere made legislative give-and-take harder, Mr. Chen said. Like most opposition politicians, he blamed Mr. Lai for the impasse. Mr. Lai’s side blames obstruction by the opposition parties. 包括前海军上将陈永康在内的几位国民党立委表示，他们普遍支持增加军费开支。但陈永康表示，政治分化的氛围使得立法会上的讨论变得更加困难。与大多数反对党政治人物一样，他将这样的僵局归咎于赖清德。赖清德一方则将问题归咎于反对党的阻挠。 “Putting it harshly, there’s virtually no communication now between the two parties,” Mr. Chen said of the Nationalists and Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party. “现在我严格讲就是说，两个政党几乎没有沟通，”陈永康在谈及国民党和赖清德领导的民进党时说。 Mr. Lai won 40 percent of the vote in the presidential election last year, but his party lost its majority in the legislature, resulting in frequent standoffs over Mr. Lai’s initiatives. Brawls have broken out in Taiwan’s legislative chamber, and opponents of the Nationalist Party and Taiwan People’s Party staged protests outside the legislative building last year. 去年，赖清德在总统选举中赢得了40%的选票，但他的政党在立法院失去了多数席位，导致赖清德的提议经常陷入僵局。台湾立法院曾爆发斗殴事件，去年，国民党和台湾民众党的反对者在立法院外举行了抗议活动。 去年，赖清德总统的支持者在台北的一个抗议活动上。 Hoping to weaken the opposition parties’ grip on the legislature, Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party has backed a recall campaign against opposition lawmakers, using a rule that members of the legislature can face fresh elections, outside of the usual cycle, if enough voters sign petitions. The The Nationalist Party has, in turn, backed recall petitions against D.P.P. lawmakers. 为了削弱反对党对立法院的控制，赖清德所在的民进党支持罢免反对派立委的行动，其依据的规则是，如果有足够多的选民签署请愿书，立法委员席位可以在正常选举周期之外重新选举。而国民党则支持罢免民进党立委的请愿。 Mr. Lai’s recent speech on China appeared partly intended to sharpen the contrast with the opposition, said Ryan Hass, an expert on China and Taiwan at the Brookings Institution. “I think it was intended to reassert control of the narrative, to put people who are opposing his agenda on the back foot,” Mr. Hass said in an interview while visiting Taipei. 布鲁金斯学会中国和台湾问题专家何瑞恩(Ryan Hass)表示，赖清德最近关于中国的讲话似乎部分意在加强与反对派的对比。“我认为这是为了重新掌控叙事，让反对他议程的人处于劣势，”何瑞恩在访问台北期间接受采访时表示。 Still, he and many other experts say Taiwan does face growing efforts by China to illicitly influence public opinion on the island, erode confidence in its government and military forces, and to collect intelligence. 不过，他和许多其他专家都表示，台湾确实面临着中国越来越多的企图，包括对岛内舆论的不正当影响、削弱人们对台湾政府和军队的信心，以及收集情报。 Mr. Lai said the growing threat from China was reflected in the data: 64 people faced charges of espionage in Taiwan in 2024, he said, three times the number charged with the offense in 2021. 赖清德表示，有数据表明来自中国的威胁日益严重：他说，2024年台湾有64人面临间谍罪指控，是2021年被控间谍罪人数的三倍。 Most of those accused of spying, Mr. Lai said, were former or current members of Taiwan’s armed forces. 赖清德称，大多数被指控从事间谍活动的人都是台湾武装部队的前任或现任成员。 储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者，自台北报道中国和台湾问题，重点关注政治、社会变革以及安全和军事问题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Amy Chang Chien是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻台北，报道台湾和中国新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
艾莎, JOY DONG2025年3月21日2018年，李嘉诚在香港。这位大亨建立了一个横跨地产、航运、电信等领域的帝国。 Jerome Favre/EPA, via Shutterstock The deal had the imprint of a Hong Kong billionaire nicknamed “Superman” for his empire building. One of the tycoon’s companies, which for years has run two ports on the Panama Canal, had been thrust into a broader showdown between China and the United States. 这笔交易带有一位香港亿万富翁的印记，他因建立了自己庞大的商业帝国而被称为“超人”。这位大亨的一家公司多年来一直经营着巴拿马运河上的两个港口，如今被卷入了中美之间更广泛的对决之中。 So the billionaire, Li Ka-shing, got out of the firing line by notching a $19 billion deal to sell the business to a group of deep-pocketed American investors. 因此，这位亿万富翁李嘉诚以190亿美元的价格将自己的业务出售给一群财力雄厚的美国投资者，从而远离了火线。 Or so it seemed. 至少看起来是这样。 China’s leaders are now threatening to stop Mr. Li and the company he controls, CK Hutchison, from seeing the deal through, accusing the conglomerate of betraying Beijing. 中国领导人现在威胁要阻止李嘉诚和他控制的长江和记实业有限公司完成这笔交易，指责这家企业集团背叛了北京。 The face-off tests how far Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, is willing to go to exercise his control over business in Hong Kong. 这场对峙考验着中国最高领导人习近平在对香港商业领域行使管控权方面愿意走多远。 A former British colony, Hong Kong was returned to China in 1997 with Beijing’s promise it would mostly leave the city to govern itself, allowing it to remain a bridge to China but keep a system of freewheeling capitalism. Mr. Li, as a Chinese entrepreneur who tapped investors in the West to build an empire that included property, shipping and telecommunications, embodied that distinction. 香港曾是英国殖民地，于1997年回归中国，北京承诺让香港拥有相当程度的自治，使其得以继续作为通往中国的桥梁，但保留自由放任的资本主义制度。作为一名华人企业家，李嘉诚利用西方投资建立了一个包括房地产、航运和电信在内的帝国，正是这种独特模式的体现。 巴拿马运河上的巴尔博亚港。 Beijing’s potential intervention in the port deal between CK Hutchison and a group led by BlackRock now endangers the separation, prominent financiers and business leaders in Hong Kong said. It could also destroy Mr. Xi’s golden goose at a critical moment for China’s economy. 香港知名金融家和商界领袖表示，北京对长江和记实业与贝莱德牵头的集团之间港口交易的潜在干预如今危及到了这种区别。这还可能在中国经济的关键时刻毁掉习近平的摇钱树。 After recording losses in four of the past five years, Hong Kong’s stock market is on fire — a sign of enthusiasm for China’s economy. Chinese companies are choosing Hong Kong over London or New York to list their shares. It offers Mr. Xi a bragging point: Since President Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, the S&P 500 has fallen about 5 percent while Hong Kong’s stock market is up more than 20 percent. 香港股市在过去五年中有四年录得亏损，现在却火爆起来——这是投资者对中国经济热情高涨的迹象。中国公司纷纷选择在香港上市，而不是伦敦或纽约。这为习近平提供了炫耀的资本：自特朗普总统1月20日就职以来，标准普尔500指数下跌了约5%，香港股市却上涨了20%以上。 Lawyers and regulatory experts generally believe that the authorities in Hong Kong or Beijing will be reluctant to stop the deal — and it is not clear that there is much they can do. But the mere possibility has put Hong Kong on edge. Beijing and its proxies in the media have kept up a near-daily drumbeat of criticism. 律师和监管专家普遍认为，香港或北京相关当局在出手阻止这笔交易上有所顾虑，而且目前也不清楚它们能做些什么。但仅仅是阻止交易的可能性就已经让香港坐立不安。北京及其在媒体上的代理人几乎每天都在对这项交易大肆批评。 Commentaries last week in Ta Kung Pao, a newspaper owned by the Chinese government, called the agreement between CK Hutchison and BlackRock “profit seeking and unrighteous” and a matter of “national security.” The Beijing government agency that overseas Hong Kong policy reposted the comments on its website. On Tuesday, Hong Kong’s top leader, John Lee, piled on to say the deal required “serious attention.” 中国官方报纸《大公报》上周发表评论称，长江和记实业与贝莱德之间的协议“唯利是图，见利忘义”，涉及“国家利益，民族大义”。负责香港政策的港澳办在官网上转发了这些评论。本周二，香港最高领导人李家超也发表评论，称该协议“值得重视”。 Hu Xijin, a former editor of the Communist Party tabloid Global Times, said CK Hutchison “first needs to be calm and coordinate with China’s national interests.” 《环球时报》的前主编胡锡进说，希望长江和记“既来之则安之……与强大祖国的利益协调一致”。 Any attempt by Hong Kong or Beijing to stop the deal would be extraordinary. Chinese companies must often seek permission from regulators to move their money out of mainland China. CK Hutchison operates ports worldwide, including in China, but none of the 43 ports that are part of the BlackRock deal are in China. CK Hutchison’s shares are not listed in mainland China. 香港或北京阻止这笔交易的任何尝试都将是非同寻常的。中国企业往往必须获得监管机构的许可，才能将资金转移出中国大陆。长江和记在世界各地运营港口，包括在中国，但贝莱德交易涉及的43个港口中，没有一个在中国。长江和记的股票并未在中国大陆上市。 CK Hutchison declined to comment. BlackRock did not respond to a request for comment. 长江和记拒绝置评。贝莱德没有回应置评请求。 Victor Li, the chairman of CK Hutchison (and son of Li Ka-shing), said on Thursday in a statement accompanying an earnings release that the environment for CK Hutchison’s businesses could be “both volatile and unpredictable” this year. 李嘉诚之子、长江和记主席李泽钜周四在一份财报附带声明中表示，今年长江和记的业务环境可能“动荡而又不可预测”。 The scorn and warnings heaped on CK Hutchison are reminiscent of “Cultural Revolution-style criticism” that will scare off foreign investors, said Lew Mong-hung, a former Chinese political adviser. 前中国政治问题顾问刘梦熊表示，对长江和记的轻蔑和警告让人想起“文革式的批评”，会吓跑外国投资者。 在中美就巴拿马运河港口问题对峙之际，李嘉诚完成了一项价值190亿美元的交易，将其业务出售给主要投资者。 “Who would dare to come to Hong Kong?” said Mr. Lew, a former finance professional. “If you don’t obey, don’t want to make a political sacrifice and don’t want to be a political tool, you will be criticized and persecuted. Who will come to invest?” “谁还敢来香港？”曾是金融专业人士的刘梦熊说。“如果不服从，不作牺牲品，不作政治工具，就要批斗你、整你。谁还会来投资呢？” Chan King Cheung, a professor of media ethics at Hong Kong Baptist University and a former chief editor of the Hong Kong Economic Journal, wrote in a Hong Kong newspaper this week that the increasing intervention by Beijing in the city’s business community — through comments and visits made by Chinese officials to pressure business leaders to be patriotic — was a sign that it was getting harder to detach Hong Kong companies from Chinese politics. 香港浸会大学媒体伦理教授、《信报财经新闻》前主编陈景祥本周在一份香港报纸上写道，北京方面对香港商界的干预越来越多——通过中国官员的言论和访问向商界领袖施压，要求他们爱国——这表明香港公司越来越难以同中国的政治分离。 The attention Beijing has put on the Panama Canal deal was just another example that “‘great’ entrepreneurs must be patriots,” Mr. Chan wrote. “It has been proven that the days when Hong Kong companies considered issues purely based on economic or commercial interests are over,” he added. 陈景祥写道，北京对巴拿马运河交易的关注只是“‘伟大’的企业家必须是爱国者”的又一个例子。他还写道：“事实证明，香港公司纯从经济效益或商业角度考量问题的日子已经过去。” The concern among business leaders cuts to the heart of the question facing Hong Kong: Are its companies free to make their own business decisions, or must they consider China’s broader national interests as do mainland Chinese firms? 商界领袖的担忧直指香港面临的核心问题：香港公司是否可以自由做出自己的商业决策，还是必须像内地企业那样考虑中国更广泛的国家利益？ For many, the answer will determine whether Hong Kong can still operate separately from the rest of China. Hong Kong’s autonomy in free speech and civil society has already been eroded after the shutdown of local media outlets; the arrest of Jimmy Lai, a Hong Kong newspaper publisher; and the arrests and trials of dozens of pro-democracy leaders. 对很多人来说，这个答案将决定香港是否仍能与中国其他地区分开运作。在香港本地媒体机构被关闭、报纸出版人黎智英遭逮捕，以及数十名民主运动领袖遭到逮捕和审判之后，香港在言论自由和公民社会方面的自主权已经受到侵蚀。 “It’s one thing to go after Jimmy Lai and Apple Daily, but quite another to go after ‘Superman’ KS Li and his companies, the most successful international business H.K. has ever produced,” said Mark L. Clifford, a former board member at Mr. Lai’s Next Digital and president of the Committee for Freedom in Hong Kong. “打击黎智英和《苹果日报》是一回事，但打击‘超人’李嘉诚和他的公司——香港有史以来最成功的国际企业——则是另一回事，”祈福德(Mark L. Clifford)说，他是黎智英壹传媒的前董事会成员，也是香港自由委员会基金会主席。 To Beijing and its supporters, the Trump administration has already politicized business transactions, thwarting investment and imposing tariffs in the name of national security. In an opinion article, Mr. Hu, the former Chinese tabloid editor, argued that former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. also did this when his administration stopped a deal between Japan’s Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel. 对北京及其支持者来说，特朗普政府将商业交易政治化，阻挠投资，并以国家安全的名义征收关税。胡锡进在评论文章中指出，拜登前总统在其政府阻止日本新日铁和美国钢铁公司之间的交易时也这么做过。 香港媒体大亨黎智英是著名的中国政府批评者，自2020年以来一直被监禁。 Beijing has reason to be concerned, he added. The Trump administration “wants to use the ports to charge extra fees to Chinese ships arriving at the port and hit China’s shipbuilding and shipping industries.” 他还称，北京方面有理由感到担忧。特朗普政府“要在美国港口对所有到岸的中国船只加收额外费用，打击中国航运和造船业”。 Others argued that China’s condemnation of CK Hutchison for supposedly not acting in China’s national interests has effectively ratified Mr. Trump’s original claim that the company was controlled by China. 也有人认为，中国谴责长江和记所谓的不符合中国国家利益的行为，实际上证实了特朗普最初关于该公司受中国控制的说法。 “China’s reaction to the deal implicitly concedes the Trump administration’s point that control of major ports, here just the Panama Canal, constitutes a security threat to the United States,” said Lester Ross, the partner in charge of the Beijing office of the law firm Wilmer Hale. “中国对该交易的反应默认了特朗普政府的观点，即控制主要港口——这里仅指巴拿马运河——对美国构成了安全威胁，”威尔默黑尔律师事务所北京办事处主管合伙人莱斯特·罗斯说。 “It may also bring the Hong Kong business community as a whole even more tightly under Beijing’s thumb.” “这也可能使整个香港商界受到北京更紧密的控制。” 艾莎(Alexandra Stevenson)是《纽约时报》上海分社社长，报道中国经济和社会新闻。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ERIC SCHMITT, ERIC LIPTON, JULIAN E. BARNES, RYAN MAC, MAGGIE HABERMAN2025年3月21日特朗普总统与埃隆·马斯克、马斯克的儿子X本月在白宫。目前尚不清楚向马斯克提供如此敏感的简报的原因是什么。 Doug Mills/The New York Times The Pentagon is scheduled on Friday to brief Elon Musk on the U.S. military’s plan for any war that might break out with China, two U.S. officials said on Thursday. 两名美国官员周四表示，五角大楼定于周五向埃隆·马斯克做简报，介绍美国军方针对美中开战的可能情形制定的作战计划。 Another official said the briefing will be China focused, without providing additional details. A fourth official confirmed Mr. Musk was to be at the Pentagon on Friday, but offered no details. 另一名官员称，这次简报将以中国为重点，但没有提供更多细节。第四名官员证实，马斯克周五会前往五角大楼，但也没有透露任何细节。 Hours after news of the planned meeting was published by The New York Times, Pentagon officials and President Trump denied that the session would be about military plans involving China. “China will not even be mentioned or discussed,” Mr. Trump said in a late-night social media post. 时报报道本次会面计划几小时后，五角大楼官员和特朗普总统做出了否认，称该会面与涉及中国的军事计划无关。“甚至不会提到或谈论中国，”特朗普深夜在社媒上发帖说。 It was not clear if the briefing for Mr. Musk would go ahead as originally planned. But providing Mr. Musk access to some of the nation’s most closely guarded military secrets would be a dramatic expansion of his already extensive role as an adviser to Mr. Trump and leader of his effort to slash spending and purge the government of people and policies they oppose. 目前尚不清楚马斯克的简报会是否会按原计划进行。但让马斯克获取这个国家的最高军事机密意味着他的身份再一次得到大幅扩展，此前他作为特朗普的顾问，领导了一场裁减支出，对政府中他们不认可的人和政策进行清洗的行动，本身就已经扮演了一个非常宽泛的角色。 It would also bring into sharp relief the questions about Mr. Musk’s conflicts of interest as he ranges widely across the federal bureaucracy while continuing to run businesses that are major government contractors. In this case, Mr. Musk, the billionaire chief executive of both SpaceX and Tesla, is a leading supplier to the Pentagon and has extensive financial interests in China. 由于马斯克广泛涉足联邦政府的各个部门，同时还继续经营着作为政府主要承包商的企业，也将凸显出他身上存在的利益冲突问题。具体来说，作为SpaceX和特斯拉的首席执行官，有亿万身家的马斯克不仅是五角大楼的主要供应商，还在中国拥有广泛的经济利益。 Pentagon war plans, known in military jargon as O-plans or operational plans, are among the military’s most closely guarded secrets. If a foreign country was to learn how the United States planned to fight a war against them, it could reinforce its defenses and address its weaknesses, making the plans far less likely to succeed. 五角大楼的作战计划——用军事术语来说就是所谓的“O计划”或“行动计划”——属于军方最高级别的机密之一。如果某外国了解到美国计划如何对其发动战争，它就可以加强防御并弥补弱点，从而大大降低这些计划取得成功的可能性。 The top-secret briefing for the China war plan has about 20 to 30 slides that lay out how the United States would fight such a conflict. It covers the plan beginning with the indications and warning of a threat from China to various options on what Chinese targets to hit, over what time period, that would be presented to Mr. Trump for decisions, according to officials with knowledge of the plan. 对华作战计划的绝密简报有大约20到30张幻灯片，阐述了美国将如何应对此类冲突。据知情官员称，这份计划涵盖的内容从中国威胁的迹象和预警，到在什么时候打击中国目标的各种方案，这些内容都会呈交给特朗普供其决策时参考。 A White House spokesman did not respond to an email seeking comment about the purpose of the visit, how it came about, whether Mr. Trump was aware of it, and whether the visit raises questions of conflicts of interest. The White House has not said whether Mr. Trump signed a conflicts of interest waiver for Mr. Musk. 白宫发言人没有回复请求置评的邮件，提问包括马斯克此次到访五角大楼的目的、此行如何促成、特朗普是否知情，以及是否引发利益冲突问题。白宫也未说明特朗普是否为马斯克签署了利益冲突豁免书。 The chief Pentagon spokesman, Sean Parnell, initially did not respond to a similar email seeking comment about why Mr. Musk was to receive a briefing on the China war plan. Soon after The Times published this article on Thursday evening, Mr. Parnell gave a short statement: “The Defense Department is excited to welcome Elon Musk to the Pentagon on Friday. He was invited by Secretary Hegseth and is just visiting.” 另一封类似的邮件询问了马斯克为何将接受有关对华作战计划的简报，对此五角大楼首席发言人肖恩·帕内尔起初也没有回应。但在时报于周四晚间发布相关报道后不久，帕内尔发表了一份简短声明：“国防部很高兴在周五欢迎埃隆·马斯克来到五角大楼。他是受国防部长赫格塞思邀请，仅仅是来访。” 国防部长赫格塞思已经听取了对华作战计划的部分内容，预计他将与美国政府和军方高级官员一起向马斯克介绍这些信息。 About an hour later, Mr. Parnell posted a message on his X account: “This is 100% Fake News. Just brazenly & maliciously wrong. Elon Musk is a patriot. We are proud to have him at the Pentagon.” 大约一个小时后，帕内尔的X账户发布了一条消息：“这完全是100%假新闻，公然且恶意地错误解读。埃隆·马斯克是爱国者，我们为他来到五角大楼感到自豪。” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also commented on X late on Thursday, saying: “This is NOT a meeting about ‘top secret China war plans.’ It’s an informal meeting about innovation, efficiencies & smarter production. Gonna be great!” 国防部长皮特·赫格塞思也在周四晚些时候在X上发表评论称：“这不是一场关于‘绝密中国作战计划’的会议，而是一场围绕创新、效率和更智能生产的非正式会谈。一定会很棒！” Roughly 30 minutes after that social media post, The Wall Street Journal confirmed that Mr. Musk had been scheduled to be briefed on the war planning for China. 这条推文发布大约30分钟后，《华尔街日报》证实，马斯克原定听取有关对中国作战计划的简报。 Whatever the meeting will now be about, the planning reflected the extraordinary dual role played by Mr. Musk, who is both the world’s wealthiest man and has been given broad authority by Mr. Trump. 无论这次会议最终将涉及什么内容，其筹备过程都反映出马斯克所扮演的极为重要的双重角色——他既是全球最富有的人，又被特朗普赋予了广泛的权力。 Mr. Musk has a security clearance, and Mr. Hegseth can determine who has a need to know about the plan. 马斯克拥有安全许可，国防部长赫格塞思也有权决定谁需要了解这份计划。 Mr. Hegseth; Adm. Christopher W. Grady, the acting chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and Adm. Samuel J. Paparo, the head of the military’s Indo-Pacific Command, are set to present Mr. Musk with details on the U.S. plan to counter China in the event of military conflict between the two countries, the officials said. 上述知情官员表示，赫格塞思、参谋长联席会议代理主席克里斯托弗·格雷迪上将，以及美军印太司令部司令塞缪尔·帕帕罗上将，将向马斯克介绍在中美发生军事冲突的情况下，美国将如何应对中国的具体方案。 Operational plans for major contingencies, like a war with China, are extremely difficult for people without extensive military planning to understand. The technical nature is why presidents are typically presented with the broad contours of a plan, rather than the actual details of documents. How many details Mr. Musk will want or need to hear is unclear. 像美中战争这样的重大突发事件的作战计划，对于没有丰富军事规划经验的人来说是极难理解的。正是因为其技术层面的复杂性，总统通常只会听取计划的大致轮廓，而非文件的实际细节。目前尚不清楚马斯克想要或需要了解多少细节。 Mr. Hegseth received part of the China war plan briefing last week and another part on Wednesday, according to officials familiar with the plan. 据熟悉该计划的官员称，赫格塞思上周听取了有关与中国作战计划部分内容的简报，周三听取了另外一部分。 It was unclear what the impetus was for providing Mr. Musk such a sensitive briefing. He is not in the military chain of command, nor is he an official adviser to Mr. Trump on military matters involving China. 目前尚不清楚向马斯克提供如此敏感的简报的原因是什么。他不在军事指挥系统中，也不是特朗普在涉及中国的军事事务方面的正式顾问。 马斯克的公司SpaceX对五角大楼来说已经变得如此重要，以至于中国政府表示，如果爆发战争，它可能会把SpaceX的资产作为目标。 But there is a possible reason Mr. Musk might need to know about the war plan. If Mr. Musk and his team of cost cutters from the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, want to trim the Pentagon budget in a responsible way, they may need to know what weapons systems the Pentagon plans to use in a fight with China. 但有一个可能的原因是，马斯克需要了解作战计划。如果马斯克和他的政府效率部成本削减团队想以负责任的方式削减五角大楼的预算，他们可能需要知道五角大楼计划在与中国的冲突中使用哪些武器系统。 Take, for example, aircraft carriers. Cutting back on future aircraft carriers would save billions of dollars, money that could be spent on drones or other weaponry. But if the U.S. war strategy relies on using aircraft carriers in innovative ways that would surprise China, mothballing existing ships or stopping production on future ships could cripple that plan. 以航母为例。削减未来的航母数量将节省成百上千亿美元，这些钱可以用于购买无人机或其他武器装备。但是，如果美国的战争策略依赖于以创新的方式使用航母达到令中国措手不及的目的，那么封存现有的航母或停止建造未来的航母可能会使该计划陷入瘫痪。 Planning for a war with China has dominated Pentagon thinking for decades, well before a possible confrontation with Beijing became more conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill. The United States has built its Air Forces, Navy and Space Forces — and even more recently its Marines and Army forces — with a possible fight against China in mind. 几十年来，与中国开战的计划一直主导着五角大楼的思路，远在与北京对抗的可能性在国会山成为普遍看法之前就已经如此。美国在建立空军、海军和太空部队——甚至最近的海军陆战队和陆军部队——都考虑到了可能与中国发生的冲突。 Critics have said the military has invested too much in big expensive systems like fighter jets or aircraft carriers and too little in midrange drones and coastal defenses. But for Mr. Musk to evaluate how to reorient Pentagon spending, he would want to know what the military intends to use and for what purpose. 批评人士称，军方在战斗机或航母等昂贵的大型系统上投入太多，而在中程无人机和海岸防御系统上投入太少。但对于马斯克来说，要评估如何调整五角大楼的支出方向，他需要知道军方打算使用什么装备以及出于什么目的。 Mr. Musk has already called for the Pentagon to stop buying certain high-priced items like F-35 fighter jets, manufactured by one of his space-launch competitors, Lockheed Martin, in a program that costs the Pentagon more than $12 billion a year. 马斯克已经呼吁五角大楼停止采购某些高价装备，像是F-35战机。该战斗机由他的太空发射竞争对手之一洛克希德·马丁公司制造，这个采购项目每年让五角大楼花费超过120亿美元。 Yet Mr. Musk’s extensive business interests make his access to strategic secrets about China a serious problem in the view of ethics experts. Officials have said revisions to the war plans against China have focused on upgrading the plans for defending against space warfare. China has developed a suite of weapons that can attack U.S. satellites. 然而，在商业操守专家看来，马斯克广泛的商业利益使得他接触有关中国的战略机密成为一个严重的问题。官员们表示，对华作战计划的修订侧重于升级抵御太空战的计划。中国已经研发出了一系列能够攻击美国卫星的武器。 Mr. Musk’s constellations of low-earth orbit Starlink satellites, which provide broadband data and communications services from space, are considered more resilient than traditional satellites. But he could have an interest in learning about whether or not the United States could defend his satellites in a war with China. 马斯克的近地轨道星链卫星群从太空提供宽带数据和通信服务，被认为比传统卫星有更强的适应力。但他可能有兴趣了解美国是否能在与中国的战争中保护他的卫星。 Participating in a classified briefing on the China threat with some of the most senior Pentagon and U.S. military officials would be a tremendously valuable opportunity for any defense contractor seeking to sell services to the military. 对于任何一家试图向军方出售服务的国防承包商来说，与五角大楼和美国军方一些最高级别官员一起参加关于中国威胁的机密简报会，都是一个极为宝贵的机会。 Mr. Musk could gain insight into new tools that the Pentagon might need and that SpaceX, where he remains the chief executive, could sell. 马斯克可以深入了解五角大楼可能需要的新工具，而他仍然担任首席执行官的SpaceX可以出售这些工具。 Contractors working on relevant Pentagon projects generally do have access to certain limited war planning documents, but only once war plans are approved, said Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he focuses on defense strategy. Individual executives rarely if ever get exclusive access to top Pentagon officials for a briefing like this, Mr. Harrison said. 美国企业研究所主要研究国防战略的高级研究员托德·哈里森表示，参与五角大楼相关项目的承包商通常确实可以接触到某些有限的战争计划文件，但只有在战争计划获得批准后才可以。哈里森说，高管个人很少有机会单独接触五角大楼的高级官员，听取这样的简报。 “Musk at a war-planning briefing?” he said. “Giving the CEO of one defense company unique access seems like this could be grounds for a contract protest and is a real conflict of interest.” “马斯克出席战争规划简报会？”他说。“让一家国防公司的首席执行官独家获取这样的信息，似乎已经构成发起竞标抗议的依据，这是实打实的利益冲突。” 得州博卡奇卡的SpaceX Starbase。五角大楼的简报可以帮助埃隆·马斯克了解五角大楼可能需要哪些新工具，同时他仍然担任首席执行官的SpaceX可以出售这些工具。 Mr. Musk’s SpaceX is already being paid billions of dollars by the Pentagon and federal spy agencies to help the United States build new military satellite networks to try to confront rising military threats from China. SpaceX launches most of these military satellites for the Pentagon on its Falcon 9 rockets, which take off from launchpads SpaceX has set up at military bases in Florida and California. 马斯克的SpaceX公司已经从五角大楼和联邦间谍机构获得了数十亿美元的资金，以帮助美国建立新的军事卫星网络，应对来自中国日益增长的军事威胁。SpaceX为五角大楼发射的大部分军用卫星都是用猎鹰9号火箭发射的，它们从SpaceX在佛罗里达州和加利福尼亚州的军事基地设立的发射台起飞。 The company separately has been paid hundreds of millions of dollars by the Pentagon that now relies heavily on SpaceX’s Starlink satellite communications network for military personnel to transmit data worldwide. 五角大楼已经分别向该公司支付了多笔巨额资金，目前严重依赖SpaceX的星链卫星通信网络，供军事人员在全球范围内传输数据。 In 2024, SpaceX was granted about $1.6 billion in Air Force contracts. That does not include classified spending with SpaceX by the National Reconnaissance Office, which has hired the company to build it a new constellation of low-earth orbit satellites to spy on China, Russia and other threats. 2024年，SpaceX获得了约16亿美元的空军合同。这还不包括美国国家侦察局对SpaceX的机密支出，该局已聘请SpaceX为其建造一个新的低地球轨道卫星群，以监视中国、俄罗斯和其他威胁。 Mr. Trump has already proposed that the United States build a new system the military is calling Golden Dome, a space-based missile defense system that recalls what President Ronald Reagan tried to deliver. (The so-called Star Wars system Mr. Reagan had in mind was never fully developed.) 特朗普提议美国建立一个新系统，军方称之为“金穹”，这是一个天基导弹防御系统，让人想起罗纳德·里根总统试图带来的东西。（里根心目中所谓的星球大战系统从未完全开发出来。） Perceived missile threats from China — be it nuclear weapons or hypersonic missiles or cruise missiles — are a major factor that led Mr. Trump to sign an executive order recently instructing the Pentagon to start work on Golden Dome. 来自中国的导弹威胁——无论是核武器、高超音速导弹还是巡航导弹——是导致特朗普最近签署行政命令，指示五角大楼启动“金穹”的一个主要因素。 Even starting to plan and build the first components of the system will cost tens of billions of dollars, according to Pentagon officials, and most likely create large business opportunities for SpaceX, which already provides rocket launches, satellite structures, and space-based data communications systems, all of which will be required for Golden Dome. 五角大楼官员表示，即使是开始规划和建造该系统的第一个组件就将花费数百亿美元，这很可能为SpaceX创造巨大的商机，该公司已经提供火箭发射、卫星结构和天基数据通信系统，所有这些都是“金穹”所需要的。 Separately, Mr. Musk has been the focus of an investigation by the Pentagon’s inspector general over questions about his compliance with his top-secret security clearance. 另外，马斯克一直是五角大楼监察长的重点调查人物，原因是有人质疑他是否遵守了绝密安全许可。 The investigations started last year after some SpaceX employees complained to government agencies that Mr. Musk and others at SpaceX were not properly reporting contacts or conversations with foreign leaders. 调查始于去年，当时一些SpaceX员工向政府机构投诉称，马斯克和SpaceX的其他人没有合规报告与外国领导人的接触或对话。 Air Force officials, before the end of the Biden administration, started their own review, after Senate Democrats asked questions about Mr. Musk and asserted that he was not complying with security clearance requirements. 在参议院民主党人提出有关马斯克的问题并声称他没有遵守安全审查要求后，空军官员在拜登政府末期前开始了自己的审查。 The Air Force, in fact, had denied a request by Mr. Musk for an even higher level of security clearance, known as Special Access Program, which is reserved for extremely sensitive classified programs, citing potential security risks associated with the billionaire. 事实上，空军拒绝了马斯克要求获得更高级别安全许可的请求，（即所谓的“特殊访问计划”，专为极度敏感的机密项目预留，）理由是与这位亿万富翁有关的潜在安全风险。 In fact, SpaceX has become so valuable to the Pentagon that the Chinese government has said it considers the company to be an extension of the U.S. military. SpaceX实际上对五角大楼来说已经变得如此重要，以至于中国政府表示将该公司视为美国军方的延伸。 “Starlink Militarization and Its Impact on Global Strategic Stability” was the headline of one publication released last year from China’s National University of Defense Technology, according to a translation of the paper prepared by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 根据战略与国际研究中心的译文，中国国防科技大学去年发表了一篇论文，题为“星链军事化及其对全球战略稳定的影响”。 Mr. Musk and Tesla, an electric vehicle company he controls, are heavily reliant on China, which houses one of the auto maker’s flagship factory in Shanghai. Unveiled in 2019, the state-of-the-art facility was built with special permission from the Chinese government, and now accounts for more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries. Last year, the company said in financial filings that it had a $2.8 billion loan agreement with lenders in China for production expenditures. 马斯克和他控制的电动汽车公司特斯拉严重依赖中国，这家汽车制造商的旗舰工厂之一就设在上海。这座最先进的工厂于2019年揭幕，是在中国政府的特别许可下建造的，目前占特斯拉全球交付量的一半以上。去年，该公司在财务文件中表示，它与中国的贷款机构达成了一项28亿美元的贷款协议，用于生产开支。 In public, Mr. Musk has avoided criticizing Beijing and signaled his willingness to work with the Chinese Communist Party. In 2022, he wrote a column for the magazine of the Cyberspace Administration of China, the country’s censorship agency, trumpeting his companies and their missions of improving humanity. 在公开场合，马斯克避免批评北京，并表示愿意与中国共产党合作。2022年，他为中国的审查机构——国家互联网信息办公室旗下的杂志撰写了一篇专栏文章，大肆宣扬他的公司及其为人类谋福利的使命。 That same year, the billionaire told the Financial Times that China should be given some control over Taiwan by making a “special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable,” an assertion that angered politicians of the independent island. In that same interview, he also noted that he gave Beijing assurances that he would not sell Starlink in China. 同年，这位亿万富翁向英国《金融时报》表示，中国应该通过“在台湾设立一个合理可接受的特别行政区”，来获得对台湾的一些控制权，这一主张激怒了这个独立岛屿的政界人士。在同一次采访中，他还指出，他向北京保证，不会在中国出售星链。 The following year at a tech conference, Mr. Musk called the democratic island “an integral part of China that is arbitrarily not part of China,” and compared the Taiwan-China situation to Hawaii and the United States. 次年，在一次科技会议上，马斯克称台湾这个民主的岛屿是“中国不可分割的一部分，但被擅自认定不属于中国”，并将台湾和中国的情况比作夏威夷和美国。 On X, the social platform he owns, Mr. Musk has long used his account to praise China. He has said the country is “by far” the world leader in electric vehicles and solar power, and has commended its space program for being “far more advanced than people realize.” He has encouraged more people to visit the country, and posited openly about an “inevitable” Russia-China alliance. 在他拥有的社交平台X上，马斯克长期以来一直使用自己的账户赞扬中国。他说，到目前为止，中国在电动汽车和太阳能方面处于世界领先地位，并称赞其太空计划“比人们意识到的要先进得多”。他鼓励更多的人到中国旅游，并公开表示，中俄结盟是“不可避免的”。 Aaron Kessler对本文有报道贡献。 Eric Schmitt是《纽约时报》国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过30年。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Eric Lipton是《纽约时报》调查记者，他深入挖掘了从五角大楼支出到有毒化学品等一系列话题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Julian E. Barnes是一名国家安全记者，常驻华盛顿，报道情报机构新闻。2018年加入时报之前，他为《华尔街日报》报道安全相关议题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Ryan Mac报道全球科技行业的企业责任相关议题。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普第二任期。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
KEITH BRADSHER2025年3月21日位于中国滨州的一家铝基材料厂。北京没有那么多钱来帮助面临关税的中国出口商，或帮助消费者抵御经济放缓和房地产市场崩溃。 Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Buried in China’s latest government budget were some numbers that add up to an alarming trend. Tax revenue is dropping. 在中国最新的政府预算中，隐藏着一些数字，综合起来显示出一种惊人的趋势。税收收入正在下降。 The decline means that China’s national government has less money to address the country’s serious economic challenges, including a housing market crash and the near bankruptcy of hundreds of local governments. 下降意味着中国国家政府用于应对国家严重经济挑战的资金减少，这些挑战包括房地产市场崩溃和数百个地方政府濒临破产。 Weak tax revenue also puts China’s leaders in a box as they square off with President Trump, who has imposed 20 percent tariffs on goods from China and threatened more to come. Beijing has less spare cash to help the export industries that are driving economic growth but could be hurt by tariffs. 税收收入疲软也让中国领导人在与特朗普总统对峙时处于不利地位。特朗普已对来自中国的商品征收了20%的关税，并威胁要征收更多关税。中国政府手上用于帮助出口行业的备用资金减少了，该行业有助于推动经济增长，但可能受到关税的冲击。 The drop in tax collections leaves China’s leaders in an unfamiliar position. Until the last several years, China enjoyed robust revenue, which it used to invest in infrastructure, a rapid military buildup and extensive industrial subsidies. Even as economic growth has slowed gradually over the past 12 years, taking a dent out of consumer spending, tax revenue held fairly steady until recently. 税收的减少使中国领导人处于一个陌生的境地。直到最近几年，中国还享有丰厚的收入，用于投资基础设施、快速军事建设和广泛的工业补贴。尽管在过去的12年里，经济增长逐渐放缓，消费者支出受到影响，但税收收入一直相当稳定，直到前不久。 Tax revenue fell further last year than ever before. And the only two previous declines in recent decades were under special circumstances: In 2020, China imposed an essentially nationwide pandemic lockdown for a couple of months, and in 2022, Shanghai endured a two-month lockdown. 去年，税收收入降幅比以往任何时候都要大。近几十年来，仅有的两次下降都是在特殊情况下发生的：2020年，中国在全国范围内实施了几个月的疫情封锁，2022年，上海经历了两个月的封锁。 China’s declining tax revenue now has several causes. A big one is deflation — a broad decline in prices. Companies and now the Chinese government find themselves with less money to make monthly payments on their debts. 目前，中国税收收入下降有几个原因。一个大问题是通货紧缩——物价普遍下跌。企业和中国政府现在发现，他们每月用来偿还债务的钱越来越少了。 在多年为基础设施建设、军事发展和工业补贴提供资金后，税收收入的下降使中国领导人处于一个不同寻常的境地。 Since September, Chinese officials have promised several times that they were on the cusp of doing what practically every foreign and Chinese economist recommends: spending more money to help the country’s beleaguered consumers with such measures as higher pensions, better medical benefits, more unemployment insurance or restaurant vouchers. But again and again, including on Sunday, they have laid out ambitious programs without providing more than a smidgen of extra spending. 自去年9月以来，中国官员多次承诺，他们即将采取几乎所有中外经济学家都建议的措施：花更多的钱来帮助陷入困境的中国消费者，比如提高养老金、改善医疗福利、增加失业保险或提供餐饮代金券。但一次又一次，包括周日这一次在内，他们制定了雄心勃勃的计划，却没有提供一点点额外支出。 The usual explanation for the frugality lies in longstanding opposition from Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, who warned in a speech in 2021 that China “must not aim too high or go overboard with social security, and steer clear of the idleness-breeding trap of welfarism.” 对于这种节制，通常的解释是中国最高领导人习近平长期以来反对支出，他在2021年的一次讲话中警告说，中国在社会保障方面“不能提过高的目标，搞过头的保障，坚决防止落入‘福利主义’养懒汉的陷阱”。 But China’s 2025 budget, which the Ministry of Finance released on March 5, suggests a different explanation: The national government may not have the money. Despite record borrowing, it would be hard-pressed to find the money needed to stimulate consumption. 但中国财政部3月5日公布的2025年预算给出了另一种解释：中央政府可能没有钱。尽管借贷达到了创纪录的水平，但要找到刺激消费所需的资金将非常困难。 Overall tax revenue fell 3.4 percent last year. That might not look like a lot. But it is a sizable divergence from the overall economy, which according to official statistics grew 5 percent before being adjusted for deflation. 去年，税收总额下降了3.4%。这看起来可能不是很多。但这与整体经济存在很大差异，根据官方统计，在扣除通缩因素之前，中国经济增长了5%。 Falling tax revenue means that China’s budget deficits are widening not because of extra government spending to help the economy, but because there is less money coming into the till. The problem has been worsening for years at local governments, which have plummeting revenues from selling state land, and has spread to the national government. 税收收入的下降意味着中国的预算赤字正在扩大，这并不是因为政府为帮助经济而增加了开支，而是因为进入金库的钱减少了。地方政府出售国有土地的收入急剧下降，导致这一问题几年来日益严重，并已蔓延至国家政府。 企业、家庭和中国政府现在都在努力偿还债务。 Fitch Ratings calculates that overall revenue for the national and local governments — including taxes and land sales — totaled 29 percent of the economy’s output as recently as 2018. But this year’s budget indicates that overall revenue will be just 21.1 percent of the economy in 2025. 据惠誉评级计算，截至2018年，国家和地方政府的总收入（包括税收和土地销售）总计占经济产出的29%。但今年的预算显示，到2025年，总收入将仅占经济总量的21.1%。 Roughly half of the decline comes from plummeting revenue from land sales, a well-documented problem related to the housing-market crash, but the rest comes from weakness in tax revenue, a new problem. 大约一半的下降来自土地销售收入的急剧下降，这个已有详尽报道的问题与房地产市场崩溃有关。但其余的下降来自税收收入的疲软，这是一个新问题。 That adds up to a huge sum of money. If overall revenue had kept up with the economy over the past seven years, the Chinese government would have another $1.5 trillion to spend in 2025. 这些问题加起来意味着失去一大笔钱。如果过去七年的整体收入与经济增长保持同步，那么到2025年，中国政府的可支配资金应该比现在多出1.5万亿美元。 China announced this month that it would allow its official target for the budget deficit to increase to 4 percent this year, after trying to keep it near 3 percent ever since the global financial crisis in 2009. But analysts say the true deficit is already much larger, because China is quietly counting a lot of long-term borrowing as though it were tax revenue. 中国本月宣布，今年将允许其官方预算赤字目标增加到4%，自2009年全球金融危机以来，中国一直试图将其保持在接近3%的水平。但分析人士说，真正的赤字已经大得多了，因为中国正在悄悄地把大量长期借款当作税收收入来计算。 Comparing spending only with actual revenue, without the borrowing, the Finance Ministry’s budget shows a deficit equal to almost 9 percent of the economy. In 2018, it was only 3.2 percent. 仅将支出与实际收入（不包括借款）相比较，财政部的预算赤字几乎相当于经济总量的9%。2018年，这一比例仅为3.2%。 “Deficits are quite high and debt is rising quite quickly, so they are fiscally challenged,” said Jeremy Zook, a director of Asia and Pacific sovereign ratings at Fitch. “赤字相当高，债务增长相当快，因此他们面临财政挑战，”惠誉亚太主权评级主管杰里米·祖克表示。 The biggest taxes in China are value-added taxes, a kind of sales tax that the government collects on practically every transaction, from rent to refrigerators. Last year, revenue from value-added taxes fell short of expectations by 7.9 percent. 中国最大的税种是增值税，这是一种销售税，政府对从租金到冰箱的几乎每一笔交易都征收。去年，增值税收入比预期低7.9%。 The word “deflation” is prohibited in official Chinese documents, so the ministry came up with a euphemistic explanation: “This decrease was mainly due to the fact that the producer prices were lower than expected.” “通货紧缩”一词在中国官方文件中是禁止使用的，因此，财政部给出了一个委婉的解释：这一下降的原因“主要是工业生产者出厂价格低于预期”。 自2020年以来，公寓销售暴跌，许多房地产开发商破产。 Hector Retamal/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Producer prices, essentially wholesale prices calculated as goods leave factories and farms, fell 2.3 percent in China last year. 生产者价格即商品离开工厂和农场时计算的批发价格，去年，中国的生产者价格下降了2.3%。 Revenue from value-added taxes began weakening in 2018. That was when the government cut these taxes sharply for exporters to help them offset the impact of tariffs imposed by President Trump in his first term. 2018年，增值税收入开始减少。当时，政府大幅削减了出口商的这部分税收，以帮助他们抵消特朗普总统在第一个任期内征收关税的影响。 The cost of that tax break has soared since then as China’s exports have surged, producing a trade surplus of almost $1 trillion last year even as the rest of the economy stagnated. 从那以后，随着中国出口激增，这一减税的代价急剧增加，去年中国的贸易顺差达到了近7万亿元，而其他经济领域却停滞不前。 Another problem lies in falling salaries and rising layoffs, especially during the second half of last year. Income taxes collected from individuals were 7.5 percent below expectations last year, the Finance Ministry said in its budget. 另一个问题是工资下降和裁员增加，特别是在去年下半年。财政部在预算中表示，去年征收的个人所得税比预期低7.5%。 China’s own steep tariffs on imports are another large source of revenue. But having lost much of their savings in the housing market crash, China’s consumers have cut back on purchases of imports like handbags and perfume, while prices have fallen for many imported goods. So revenue from customs duties was 9.2 percent below forecasts last year, the Finance Ministry said. 中国对进口商品征收的高额关税是另一大收入来源。但由于在房地产市场崩盘中损失了大部分积蓄，中国消费者减少了购买手袋和香水等进口商品，而许多进口商品的价格也有所下降。因此，财政部表示，去年的关税收入比预期低9.2%。 This year’s financial picture could be even worse than the budget anticipates. The Finance Ministry’s budget repeated many of the same optimistic assumptions about tax revenue and overall economic performance that it made last year. 今年的财政状况可能比预算预期的还要糟糕。财政部的预算重复了去年对税收收入和整体经济表现做出的许多乐观假设。 Governments in the West derive considerable revenue from taxes on investment gains, inheritances and real estate. But China has no taxes on investment gains or inheritances and almost none on real estate. 西方国家政府从对投资收益、遗产和房地产征税中获得可观的收入。但中国对投资收益或遗产不征税，对房地产也几乎不征税。 浙江省的一条电动汽车生产线。为帮助中国出口商而进行的税收减免付出了巨大代价。 Florence Lo/Reuters The general lack of real estate taxes lies at the root of a separate problem: China’s local governments are also running out of money. Until recently, they derived up to 80 percent of their revenues from selling land to property developers. 房地产税的普遍缺失是另一个问题的根源：中国的地方政府也面临缺钱的困境。直到前不久，它们高达80%的收入来自向房地产开发商出售土地。 But those sales have plummeted since the housing crash began in 2021, which has gutted demand for new apartments and bankrupted many developers. 但自2021年房地产市场开始崩盘以来，这些销售大幅下降，导致对新公寓的需求锐减，许多开发商破产。 Local governments are responsible for most pensions, medical benefits and other social spending in China. The national government has been selling extra bonds to raise money for bailing out the weakest local governments, many of which are behind on their debts. The national government has called for local governments to step up social spending but, short on cash itself, has offered scant new financial assistance. 在中国，地方政府承担了大部分养老金、医疗福利和其他社会支出。中央政府一直在出售额外债券，筹集资金救助最弱的地方政府，其中许多地方政府拖欠债务。中央政府呼吁地方政府加大社会支出，但由于自身资金短缺，提供的新财政援助很少。 And new taxes are not likely forthcoming, according to Jia Kang, a retired research director at the Finance Ministry and still one of China’s most influential voices on tax policy. He said in an interview that public opposition to inheritance taxes is strong, while taxes on investment gains or real estate would hurt stocks or the housing market. 据财政部退休研究主任、中国在税收政策方面最有影响力的人士之一贾康称，新税不太可能出台。他在接受采访时表示，公众强烈反对遗产税，而对投资收益或房地产征税会损害股市或房地产市场。 One factor not causing China’s tax challenges is fraud or tax evasion, Mr. Jia said. The procedures for checking on payments have become very detailed, he said. “It is difficult to cheat in this system.” 贾康说，欺诈或逃税并非造成中国税收挑战的因素。他说，检查付款的程序已经变得非常详细。“在这个系统里很难作弊。” Siyi Zhao对本文有研究贡献。 Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，此前曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长，以及华盛顿记者。他在新冠疫情期间常驻中国进行报道。 点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
ERICA L. GREEN, ZOLAN KANNO-YOUNGS, MAGGIE HABERMAN2025年3月21日特朗普总统在司法部走廊停下脚步，看挂在那里的他的官方肖像，摄于上周五。 Eric Lee/The New York Times President Trump called for one federal judge seeking basic information about his deportation efforts to be impeached amid mounting concern about a constitutional showdown. 特朗普总统要求弹劾一名正在寻求获取关于他驱逐移民行动的基本信息的联邦法官，让一场宪法层面摊牌的担忧日益增加。 Another judge found that Mr. Trump’s efforts to shut down a federal agency probably violated the Constitution and stripped Congress of its authority. 另一名法官认为特朗普关闭一个联邦机构的做法可能违反了宪法，而且剥夺了国会的权力。 The president was accused of overstepping his executive authority yet again in firing two Democratic commissioners from an independent trade commission. 总统解除了一个独立贸易委员会两名民主党委员的职务，该做法导致了对他再次超越行政权力的指控。 And that was just Tuesday. 这些还只是发生在周二的事情。 Nearly two months into his second term, Mr. Trump is trying to consolidate control over the courts, Congress and even, in some ways, American society and culture. 特朗普再次担任总统已将近两个月，他正在试图巩固对法院和国会的控制权，甚至在某些方面试图巩固对美国社会和文化的控制权。 His expansive interpretation of presidential power has become the defining characteristic of his second term, an aggressive effort across multiple fronts to assert executive authority to reshape the government, drive policy in new directions and root out what he and his supporters see as a deeply embedded liberal bias. 他对总统权力的宽泛解读已成为第二个任期的决定性特征，他在各个方面行使行政权力，以重塑政府、推动政策转入新方向，并根除他和他的支持者眼中根深蒂固的自由主义偏见。 “We’ve never seen a president so comprehensively attempt to arrogate and consolidate so much of the other branches’ power, let alone to do so in the first two months of his presidency,” said Stephen Vladeck, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center. “我们从来没有看到过一名总统如此全面地试图从这么多其他政府分支机构那里僭取并巩固权力，更不用说在担任总统头两个月的时间里这样做了，”乔治城大学法学院教授斯蒂芬·弗拉德克说。 Congress, which is controlled by Republicans, has ceded some of its core duties to Mr. Trump, handing off elements of the legislative branch’s spending authority to the White House and standing aside as congressionally chartered agencies are shuttered. The president has threatened to “lead the charge” against the re-election of the rare Republican who dares challenge his agenda, and the party has bent to his will at every turn. 由共和党控制的国会已将一些核心职责交给了特朗普，把立法部门控制支出的部分财权交给了白宫，在国会授权成立的机构被关闭时袖手旁观。特朗普已威胁要“带头反对”敢于挑战其议程的少数共和党人竞选连任，该党每次都屈从于他的意愿。 Mr. Trump has dismantled independent measures of checks and balances, fired inspectors general and installed loyalists at the Justice Department willing to carry out his campaign of retribution. He has targeted private law firms with connections to those he views as political enemies and cowed previously skeptical or hostile business leaders into pledging public support, even as he has imprinted his “MAGA” stamp on the private sector by trying to dictate hiring practices. 特朗普已废除了独立的制衡措施，解雇了总监察长，在司法部安插了忠诚分子，他们愿意为特朗普的报复行动效力。他已把目标对准与他视为政治敌人的人有联系的私人律师事务所，迫使以前对他持怀疑或敌对态度的商界领袖公开承诺支持他，为了把他的“让美国恢复伟大荣光”理念在私营部门留下烙印，他甚至试图对私营企业的招聘做法发号施令。 His efforts to reshape institutions in his image have not been limited to the government and policy. Mr. Trump has tried to spread his influence through the arts, as well, by making himself chairman of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington. 他按照自己的方式重塑机构的努力不限于政府和政策。特朗普还试图把自己的影响力扩大到艺术领域，任命自己为华盛顿约翰·肯尼迪表演艺术中心的主席。 But Mr. Trump’s latest target — the judiciary — has been described by constitutional scholars and historians as perhaps the most alarming power play to date. 但特朗普的最新打击目标——司法部门——已被宪法学者和历史学家们形容为可能是到目前为止最令人担忧的弄权之举。 The Trump administration brushed off an order by James E. Boasberg of the Federal District Court in Washington, who sought to pause the deportation of a group of migrants, many of whom received little to no due process. Administration officials said that most of the migrants were from Venezuela and that all of them were affiliated with gangs. But officials did not release the migrants’ names or evidence of their alleged crimes. 特朗普政府对华盛顿联邦地区法院詹姆斯·博斯伯格法官的命令置之不理，这名法官曾试图叫停对一批移民的驱逐行动，因为其中许多人几乎或者完全没有经过正当程序。政府官员说，这些移民中的大多数来自委内瑞拉，都与帮派有关。但官员并没有公布这些移民的姓名或他们涉嫌犯罪的证据。 Mr. Trump has called for Judge Boasberg to be impeached, arguing on social media that “if a President doesn’t have the right to throw murderers, and other criminals, out of our Country because a Radical Left Lunatic Judge wants to assume the role of President, then our Country is in very big trouble, and destined to fail!” 特朗普已要求弹劾博斯伯格，并在社交媒体上辩称，“如果一名总统无权将杀人犯和其他罪犯驱逐出我们的国家，只是因为一个激进左翼疯子法官想取代总统的职责，那么我们的国家已陷入了非常大的麻烦，而且注定要失败！” The White House did not respond late Wednesday to a request for comment. 白宫在周三晚些时候没有回复记者的置评请求。 Mr. Trump has never been consistent in his attacks on the judicial system generally and on judges in particular. Last week during a speech at the Department of Justice, he suggested that criticism of Judge Aileen M. Cannon, the Florida jurist who dismissed the classified documents case against him last summer, may not be legal. 特朗普在笼统地攻击司法系统和具体地攻击法官时，从来都没有一致性。他上周在司法部发表讲话时曾暗示，对佛罗里达州的联邦法官艾琳·坎农的批评可能不合法，坎农去年夏天决定对涉及特朗普的机密文件案不予考虑。 But he has applied the same logic of fairness to court cases that he has to presidential elections: They’re fair if he wins but not if he loses. 但他判断法庭案件是否公平的逻辑与他判断总统选举是否公平的逻辑一样：他赢了的时候公平，他输了的时候不公平。 In one way or another, Mr. Trump has been a party to lawsuits going back to the 1970s, as a private developer and later as a candidate and president. When he has lost cases, he has tended to attack the judges in question as partisan activists or worse. 自20世纪70年代以来，特朗普一直是各种各样的诉讼案的一方，他那时是一名私人开发商，后来成了候选人和总统。当他输掉官司时，他常常会攻击涉案法官是带有党派偏见的激进分子，甚至说更难听的话。 When he wins, he praises the judge in question. 当他赢了官司时，他会赞扬涉案法官。 Mr. Trump’s allies say he is using his power to enact an agenda that he promised during the campaign, and that he is executing Article II of the Constitution, which sets out the powers of the president. 特朗普的盟友们说，他正在运用自己的权力来推行他在竞选期间承诺的议程，他是在执行宪法第二条赋予总统的权力。 “President Trump’s doing the unthinkable in Washington — he’s doing what he told Americans he was going to do, and he’s doing it fast,” said Mike Davis, founder of the Article III Project, a conservative advocacy group. “特朗普总统正在做华盛顿难以想象的事情——他正在做他告诉美国人他要做的事情，而且做得很快，”保守派倡导组织Article III Project的创始人迈克·戴维斯说。 保守派倡导组织Article III Project的创始人迈克·戴维斯是特朗普的盟友之一，他说，特朗普不过是在行使权力，实施选民在他获胜后要求他实施的议程。 Still, a few traditionally right-leaning voices have expressed concern. 尽管如此，一些传统上偏右的声音已表示了担忧。 The Wall Street Journal editorial page, for example, said Mr. Trump had campaigned on deporting gang members, “but it’s still troubling to see U.S. officials appear to disdain the law in the name of upholding it.” The New York Post ran a headline on its opinion page that said: “Trump, don’t heed the dangerous urge to attack the rule of law." 例如，《华尔街日报》社论版称，特朗普在竞选期间表示要把帮派成员驱逐出境，“但看到美国官员们好像是在维护法律的名义下蔑视法律，仍令人不安。”《纽约邮报》在其观点版发表的一篇文章的标题是：“特朗普，不要听从攻击法治的危险冲动。” Both papers are part of the media empire of Rupert Murdoch, Mr. Trump’s on-again, off-again ally. 这两份报纸都是鲁珀特·默多克媒体帝国的一部分，默多克有时是特朗普的盟友，有时不是。 The judiciary, created to provide checks and balances to both the executive and legislative branches, has only rarely faced such open defiance, experts say. Some of Mr. Trump’s top lieutenants have suggested he has a right to defy court orders. 美国司法部门的设立，是为了制衡行政部门和立法部门的权力，但司法部门以前几乎没有遇到过如此公开的蔑视。特朗普的一些高级副手们已暗示他有权违抗法院命令。 “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power,” Vice President JD Vance declared last month. 副总统万斯上个月宣称：“不允许法官控制行政部门的合法权力。” “I don’t care what the judges think — I don’t care what the left thinks,” Mr. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, said this week during an appearance on “Fox & Friends.” “我不在乎法官们怎么想——我不在乎左派们怎么想，”特朗普的边境事务主管汤姆·霍曼本周在《福克斯与朋友们》节目上说。 Haiyun Jiang for The New York Times副总统万斯和特朗普的边境事务主管汤姆·霍曼都已表示，特朗普有权无视法庭命令。 Mr. Trump’s allies often point out that he is doing what he said he would do during his campaign, when his policy platform, Agenda 47, laid out an agenda of maximalist presidential power. He and his advisers believe he was stymied in his first term through investigations and a resistant federal bureaucracy. 特朗普的盟友们经常指出，他正在做他在竞选期间说要做的事情，他当时在自己的政策平台Agenda 47上给出了让总统权力最大化的议程。他和他的顾问们认为，他的第一个总统任期内曾受到各种各样的调查，以及抵制他的联邦官僚机构的阻碍。 Some of his closest allies, including Russell T. Vought, Mr. Trump’s current and former director of the Office of Management and Budget, spent years preparing for the possibility of a second Trump presidency, searching for pockets of independence in the executive branch that could be seized. 特朗普的一些最亲密的盟友，包括曾在他第一次当总统期间以及现在担任管理和预算办公室主任的拉塞尔·T·沃特，花了好几年时间为特朗普再次当总统的可能性做准备，在行政部门中寻找能夺取的独立空间。 Mr. Vought and other Trump allies have advocated a doctrine called the unitary executive, a legal theory that all power in the executive branch flows from the president. 沃特和特朗普的其他盟友们一直提倡一个被称为“集权行政”的学说，这个法律理论认为，行政部门的所有权力来自总统。 “The great challenge confronting a conservative president is the existential need for aggressive use of the vast powers of the executive branch to return power — including power currently held by the executive branch — to the American people,” Mr. Vought wrote in the conservative blueprint for a Republican presidential transition, Project 2025. He added that it would take “boldness to bend or break the bureaucracy to the presidential will.” “保守派总统面临的最大挑战是，积极使用行政部门的巨大权力，将权力（包括目前由行政部门掌握的权力）归还给美国人民，这是一种生存的需要，”沃特在为共和党总统接管权力制定的保守派蓝图《2025计划》中写道。他还说，这将需要在“让官僚机构屈服于总统的意志上采取大胆行动”。 One of the dozens of executive orders that Mr. Trump signed since taking office, which called for taking over “independent regulatory agencies,” asserted similar goals. “For the federal government to be truly accountable to the American people, officials who wield vast executive power must be supervised and controlled by the people’s elected president,” the executive order states. 特朗普上任以来签署的数十项行政命令之一就是要求接管“独立的监管机构”，主张了与上述目标类似的东西。“为了让联邦政府真正对美国人民负责，拥有巨大行政权力的官员必须受到人民选举产生的总统的监督和控制，”该行政命令写道。 Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II, a former acting deputy Homeland Security secretary in the first Trump administration and a contributor to Project 2025, said those who criticize Mr. Trump’s use of executive power “are doing so primarily to weaken the presidency and this president in particular under the guise of ‘conventional wisdom’ that has no constitutional foundation.” 肯尼斯·库奇内利曾在特朗普的第一个任期担任国土安全部代理副部长，他也是《2025计划》的参与者。他说，那些批评特朗普行使行政权力的人“主要是为了削弱总统，尤其是这名总统的权力，他们打着没有宪法基础的‘传统智慧’幌子”。 被特朗普任命为管理和预算办公室主任的拉塞尔·沃特权力巨大，他是保守派文件《2025计划》的主要设计者，该文件已成为特朗普战略的蓝图。 Critics of how Mr. Trump is approaching his executive authority say the unitary executive theory does not mean that everything the executive branch does is legal. 批评特朗普如何行使行政权力的人说，集权行政理论并不意味着行政部门所做的一切都是合法的。 Ruth Ben-Ghiat, a historian at New York University who studies fascism and authoritarianism, singled out what she said were some of Mr. Trump’s most troubling behaviors: the expansion of executive power, the politicization of the other branches of government, the dismantling of an oversight and accountability structure, and the targeting of those who seek to hold the president and his allies accountable. 在纽约大学研究法西斯主义和威权主义的历史学家露丝·本-吉亚特指出了她认为特朗普最令人不安的一些做法：扩大行政权力、将其他政府部门政治化、瓦解监督和问责构架，以及把那些试图追究总统及其盟友责任的人作为打击目标。 “The ultimate beneficiary of the acts that we’re seeing happen, whether it’s with the judiciary or other agencies, is Trump himself, because it’s an expansion of his personal power,” she said. “The scale and the speed of what’s going on is terrifying.” “我们看到，无论是对司法部门还是其他机构采取的这些做法，其最终受益者都是特朗普本人，因为这是他个人权力的扩张，”她说。“这些行动的规模和速度使人恐惧。” Erica L. Green是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普总统及其政府。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 Zolan Kanno-Youngs是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道拜登总统及其政府新闻。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 Maggie Haberman是《纽约时报》白宫记者，报道特朗普第二任期。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：Cindy Hao 点击查看本文英文版。
SANTUL NERKAR2025年3月20日安全忠将被处以500万美元罚金，其中包括向他所针对的那名男子以及另外两名受害人支付100多万美元的赔偿。 Dave Sanders for The New York Times The script was familiar. For more than five years, a wealthy Queens businessman forcefully delivered the same message to a man wanted by China. Return to the homeland, or you — and your family — will face the consequences. 这是个似曾相识的剧本。在长达五年多的时间里，皇后区的一名富商强硬地向一名遭到中国通缉的男子传达同样的信息：回到祖国，否则你——还有你的家人——将承担后果。 On Wednesday, he was sentenced to prison for those threats. 本周三，他因这些威胁行为被判入狱。 The businessman, An Quanzhong, will spend about 13 months behind bars for trying to harass a U.S. resident into leaving for China to face charges for purported crimes. Mr. An pleaded guilty last May to working as an unauthorized agent for a foreign country, while his daughter, An Guangyan, pleaded guilty to an additional charge of visa fraud conspiracy. Ms. An is yet to be sentenced. 因试图骚扰一名美国居民、迫使其前往中国接受所谓的犯罪指控，这位名叫安全忠的商人将入狱约13个月。去年5月，安全忠承认为外国担任未经授权的代理人，他的女儿安光阳则承认了另一项签证欺诈阴谋的指控，但尚未宣判。 The government refers to Mr. An with his given name first, though Chinese naming conventions place his family name, An, first. 政府在提到安全忠时采用名前姓后的方式，但按照华人的习惯，姓氏在前。 Mr. An has also been ordered to pay $5 million in penalties, including more than $1 million in restitution to the person he targeted and to two other victims. 安全忠还被处以500万美元罚金，其中包括向他所针对的那名男子以及另外两名受害人支付100多万美元的赔偿。 Mr. An, 58, appeared before Judge Kiyo A. Matsumoto in Brooklyn federal court and listened to his sentencing through a Mandarin-speaking interpreter, with several relatives and supporters in attendance. He has been on home confinement since May 2023 after spending seven months at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn. 58岁的安全忠在几位亲属和支持者的陪同下，在布鲁克林联邦法院通过一名中文翻译听取了法官松本清（Kiyo A. Matsumoto，音）的判决。自2023年5月以来，他一直处于居家监禁状态，之前他在布鲁克林大都会拘留中心度过了七个月。 In deciding Mr. An’s sentence, Judge Matsumoto said she had considered Mr. An’s difficult upbringing, his prominent status in the Chinese American community in Queens and the wretched conditions he faced at the detention center after he was detained in 2022. His time at the troubled jail, Judge Matsumoto said, warranted “a discount off his sentence.” 在对安全忠进行量刑时，松本法官表示，她考虑到了其艰难的成长经历、他在皇后区华裔美国人社区中的显赫地位，以及他在2022年遭拘留后在拘留中心面临的恶劣条件。松本法官称，考虑到他在那所问题重重的监狱里度过的时间，“应该在量刑时予以酌情从轻处理。” But she said a sentence was necessary to deter transnational repression by the Chinese government, which she described as widespread. She noted the harm he had caused the people he sought to repatriate, who remain in the United States. 但她表示，为了阻止中国政府的跨国镇压，判刑是必要的，她认为这种镇压普遍存在。她指出，安全忠对他试图遣返的人造成了伤害，这些人目前仍在美国。 “Mr. An’s conduct presents a serious threat to national security,” Judge Matsumoto said. “安全忠的行为对国家安全构成了严重威胁，”松本法官说道。 Ben Brafman, a lawyer for Mr. An, said in an interview after the proceeding that the 20-month sentence with credit for the seven months already served was about the best he could have hoped for, given the seriousness of the crime. 安全忠的律师本·布拉夫曼在宣判后接受采访时表示，考虑到这一罪行的严重性，20个月的刑期减去已经服刑的七个月，这是他所能期望的最好结果了。 In 2022, prosecutors in the Eastern District of New York indicted the Ans and five others in connection with Operation Fox Hunt, the Chinese government’s clandestine campaign to repatriate dissidents abroad. The Chinese Communist Party under its leader, Xi Jinping, started the operation in 2014, claiming it was meant to make fugitives face justice for corruption. U.S. officials have said it is merely autocratic repression. 2022年，纽约东区的检察官起诉安氏父女以及另外五人，指控他们与中国政府的“猎狐行动”有关，这是中国政府开展的一项秘密行动，目的是将在国外的持不同政见者遣送回国。中共在习近平的领导下，于2014年启动了这一行动，声称这是为了让一些逃亡贪腐分子接受法律制裁。美国官员称，这不过是专制镇压行为。 The sentencing was the latest example of Eastern District prosecutors’ crackdown on China’s efforts to harass U.S. residents and influence public officials. 此次宣判是纽约东区检察官打击中国骚扰美国居民、影响政府官员行为的最新案例。 In June 2023, three men, including a former New York police officer, were convicted of stalking a former Chinese government official. In September, a former aide to New York governors, Linda Sun, was indicted on charges that she had used her position to benefit China in exchange for lavish gifts. In December, a man pleaded guilty in Brooklyn federal court to working as an agent of a foreign government after he was charged with running a Chinese police outpost in Lower Manhattan. 2023年6月，包括一名前纽约警官在内的三名男子因跟踪一名前中国政府官员而被定罪。去年9月，纽约州州长的前助手孙雯遭到起诉，她被指控利用职务之便为中国谋取利益，以换取奢侈的礼物。12月，一名男子在布鲁克林联邦法院承认充当外国政府的代理人，他被控在曼哈顿下城管理一个中国警务站。 The Chinese government since 2002 had targeted the man in the An case, who was not named, accusing him of stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from a state-owned company, prosecutors said. 检察官表示，自2002年以来，中国政府就盯上了安全忠一案中的男子（未透露姓名），指控他从一家国企盗取大量资产。 Starting in 2017, Mr. and Ms. An tried to induce him to return to China, prosecutors said, including by forcing a relative in China to travel to the U.S. to persuade him to return. On one occasion, Mr. An told the man’s son that the Chinese government had “targeted and monitored” the man’s family in China, and that “all of your relatives will be involved,” according to the indictment. 检方还称，从2017年开始，安氏父女就试图诱使他返回中国，包括强迫他在中国的一名亲属前往美国劝说他回国。根据起诉书内容，有一次，安全忠告诉这名男子的儿子，中国政府已经“盯上并监视”了他在中国的家人，而且“你所有的亲属都会遭到牵连”。 In 2019, the company that accused the man of stealing sued in State Supreme Court, and Mr. An told the man he could make the case go away if he returned to China, prosecutors said. In that event, Mr. An said, not only he would pay the Chinese government to drop the suit, but he would provide the man with housing, according to the indictment. 检方称，2019年，那家指控该男子盗窃的公司向州最高法院提起诉讼，安全忠告诉那名男子，如果他返回中国，这起案件就能了结。根据起诉书内容，安全忠当时表示，他不仅会出钱让中国政府撤销诉讼，而且还会为那名男子提供住房。 If the person didn’t return, Mr. An said, the suit would remain open. He also promised that the fugitive would not face prison in China, according to the indictment. In the courtroom on Wednesday, prosecutors said that lawsuit was still active. 起诉书显示，安全忠还说，如果那个人不回国，诉讼就会继续进行。他还承诺，那名逃犯回国后不会在中国面临牢狱之灾。周三在法庭上，检察官表示，这起诉讼目前仍在进行中。 Mr. An’s businesses and political influence spanned his native China and the United States, where he was a permanent resident, according to court papers. He founded the Anqiao Group, a real estate company based in Zaozhuang, a city in eastern China’s Shandong province that by 2015 had about $800 million in assets, Chinese state media reported. In 2014, Mr. An, through the Anqiao Group, opened the 96-room Parc Hotel in Flushing, Queens. 法庭文件显示，安全忠的生意和政治影响力横跨他的祖国中国和美国，他本人是美国的永久居民。据中国官方媒体的报道，他创办了安侨集团，这是一家总部位于中国山东枣庄的房地产公司，截至2015年，该公司资产约为8亿美元。2014年，安全忠通过安侨集团在皇后区法拉盛开设了拥有96间客房的安侨酒店(Parc Hotel)。 Mr. An was the president of the New York Shandong Association, an organization in Flushing for immigrants from that province, and enjoyed close ties to Representative Grace Meng, a Democrat whose district includes Flushing. She declared Oct. 6, 2015, “An Quanzhong Day.” 安全忠曾是纽约山东同乡会会长，该同乡会是法拉盛的一个为山东移民设立的组织，他与国会民主党众议员孟昭文关系密切。她将2015年10月6日设为“安全忠日”。 In a statement, a spokesman for Ms. Meng noted that the declaration took place before Mr. An’s crimes, and that she was “totally against any foreign government influencing or manipulating our democracy,” including China’s. 孟昭文的发言人在一份声明中指出，这件事发生在安全忠的犯罪行为之前，并且她“完全反对任何外国政府影响或操纵我们的民主制度”，包括来自中国政府的影响或操纵行为。 Back home in China, Mr. An was named in 2015 as a member of a government advisory committee in Zaozhuang, a city of about 3.9 million people. 在中国国内，安全忠于2015年成为枣庄市政协常委，枣庄是一座人口约390万的城市。 In 2013, he was named to the standing committee of the All-China Federation of Returned Overseas Chinese, an organization that is an essential part of the Communist Party’s United Front, which seeks to extend its influence both within China and among the tens of millions of ethnic Chinese people around the world. 2013年，他被推选为中华全国归国华侨联合会常务委员会委员，该组织是是中共领导的统一战线工作的重要组成部分，致力于在中国国内以及全球数千万华侨华人中扩大影响力。 In arguing for a lighter sentence, Mr. Brafman said that Mr. An had sought to repatriate the man out of genuine concern, and that his promise to protect him from incarceration in China showed he was looking out for him. 在为安全忠争取从轻量刑时，布拉夫曼称，他的当事人试图将那名男子遣送回国是出于真心的关切，而且他承诺让那名男子回国后不被监禁，这表明他是在为对方着想。 But Alex Solomon, an assistant U.S. attorney, said in court on Wednesday that Mr. An had more sinister intentions and “fundamentally undermined” American national security. 但美国助理检察官亚历克斯·所罗门周三在法庭上说，安全忠并非出于好意，并“从根本上破坏了”美国的国家安全。 “This was an extremely coercive situation,” Mr. Solomon said. 所罗门表示：“这是一种极具胁迫性的情况。” Santul Nerkar是时报记者，报道布鲁克林联邦法院。点击查看更多关于他的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
MEAGHAN TOBIN2025年3月20日加拿大外交部长赵美兰在上周的新闻发布会上。 Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press, via Associated Press China has executed four Canadians over drug-related convictions, Canada’s foreign affairs minister said Wednesday, a development that threatens to worsen an already tense relationship between the countries. 加拿大外交部长于周三表示，中国以涉毒罪名处决了四名加拿大人。这一事态发展可能会使两国之间本已紧张的关系进一步恶化。 Mélanie Joly, the Canadian minister, told reporters that she condemned the executions, and that the government would still seek clemency for others. 加拿大外交部长赵美兰(Mélanie Joly)告诉记者，她谴责了这些处决行为，政府仍将为其他人寻求宽大处理。 “We will continue to engage with China as we’ll continue to not only strongly condemn but also ask for leniency for other Canadians that are facing similar situations,” Ms. Joly said. “我们将继续与中国接触，我们不仅会继续强烈谴责，还会继续为其他面临类似情况的加拿大人争取宽大处理，”赵美兰说。 The Chinese Embassy in Ottawa did not provide details on the executions but defended Beijing’s strict penalties on drug-related crimes. 中国驻渥太华大使馆没有提供处决的细节，但为北京对涉毒犯罪的严厉惩罚进行了辩护。 The executions were first reported by The Globe and Mail. The newspaper said that the executions had taken place earlier this year, citing Canada’s Department of Global Affairs as saying so on Wednesday in response to a question from the news outlet. 《环球邮报》首先报道了这些处决。该报援引加拿大全球事务部周三在回应该报提问时的话称，这些处决是在今年早些时候进行的。 Ms. Joly told reporters that she and the former prime minister, Justin Trudeau, had asked Beijing for leniency in recent months to try to prevent the executions. She said those involved were dual nationals of Canada and China. (China, however, does not recognize dual citizenship.) 赵美兰告诉记者，她和前总理特鲁多最近几个月曾请求北京宽大处理，以阻止处决。她说，涉案人员拥有加拿大和中国双重国籍。（但中国不承认双重国籍。） The Globe and Mail cited a statement from Ottawa condemning the killings as “inconsistent with basic human dignity.” The department did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The New York Times. 《环球邮报》援引渥太华的一份声明，谴责这些处决“不符合人类的基本尊严”。该部门没有立即回应《纽约时报》的置评请求。 John Kamm, the founder of the Dui Hua Foundation, a human rights group in San Francisco that has campaigned for people on death row in China, said he had been helping to lobby China on behalf of the four individuals but was unable to share their details for privacy reasons. 旧金山人权组织对话基金会的创始人康原(John Kamm)表示，他一直在代表这四个人帮助游说中国，但出于隐私原因无法分享他们的详细信息。对话基金会一直在为中国的死刑犯争取利益。 He said the four were men and that their cases were handled in the southern province of Guangdong. Mr. Kamm noted that it was “highly unusual” for China to execute four foreigners within a short time frame. 他说，这四人都是男性，他们的案件在南方的广东省处理。康原指出，中国在短时间内处决四名外国人是“极不寻常的”。 The four Canadians’ cases had been under judicial review in China for two years before they were executed, Mr. Kamm said. 康原说，四名加拿大人被处决前，他们的案件在中国接受了两年的司法审查。 Canada’s relationship with China has deteriorated since late 2018, when the Chinese government jailed Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, two Canadians in China. That move came after Canada arrested Meng Wanzhou, an executive at the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei, in Vancouver, at the request of the United States government. 加拿大与中国的关系自2018年底以来出现恶化，当时中国政府监禁了迈克尔·斯帕弗和康明凯(Michael Kovrig)这两名在中国的加拿大人。此前，应美国政府的要求，加拿大在温哥华逮捕了中国电信巨头华为的高管孟晚舟。 China’s detention of Mr. Kovrig and Mr. Spavor was widely condemned in Canada as hostage diplomacy. In 2021, Mr. Spavor and Mr. Kovrig were released after Ms. Meng was allowed to return to China. 中国监禁康明凯和斯帕弗的行为在加拿大受到广泛谴责，被视为人质外交。2021年，在孟晚舟获准返回中国后，康明凯和斯帕弗获释。 In recent years, the former prime minister, Mr. Trudeau, and senior members of his cabinet have increasingly criticized China publicly over human rights issues. Concerns have also grown over Chinese interference in Canadian affairs, including allegations that candidates in an election had received secret, illegal funding from China. 近年来，前总理特鲁多及其内阁高级成员越来越多地在人权问题方面公开批评中国。人们对中国干涉加拿大事务的担忧也与日俱增，其中包括指控某次选举中的候选人接受了来自中国的秘密非法资助。 Ms. Joly, the foreign minister, had called China an “increasingly disruptive global power” and warned Canadian companies about the potential risks in doing business there. 外交部长赵美兰称中国是一个“日益具有破坏性的全球大国”，并警告加拿大公司在中国开展业务的潜在风险。 More recently, Canada has faced growing concerns that Chinese goods were flooding into Canada. Mr. Trudeau last year announced that Canada would impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, aligning Canada with the United States. 最近，加拿大越来越担心中国商品涌入加拿大。特鲁多去年宣布，加拿大将对中国电动汽车征收100%的关税，从而使加拿大与美国保持一致。 On Wednesday, Ms. Joly said that the details of the four Canadians who were executed were not being revealed at the request of their families. She said they had been facing criminal charges linked to drugs, according to China. 周三，赵美兰表示是应家人要求不公布四名被处决的加拿大人的详情。她说，据中国报道，他们面临的刑事指控与毒品有关。 The Chinese Embassy, without providing details, said that the cases were handled according to law. “The facts of the crimes committed by the Canadian nationals involved in the cases are clear, and the evidence is solid and sufficient,” it said. The embassy urged Canada to respect China’s judicial sovereignty and “stop making irresponsible remarks.” 中国大使馆表示，这些案件是依法处理的，但没有提供细节。声明称：“涉案加拿大公民犯罪事实清楚，证据确凿充分。”使馆敦促加拿大尊重中国司法主权，“停止发表不负责任的言论。” At least one other Canadian faces the death penalty in China, Robert Lloyd Schellenberg, who has been convicted of drug trafficking. He had initially been sentenced to 15 years in prison. But in 2019 he was handed a death sentence in a one-day retrial, one month after the Canadian authorities had arrested Ms. Meng, the Huawei executive. 至少还有一名加拿大人在中国面临死刑，此人名叫罗伯特·劳埃德·谢伦伯格，被判犯有贩毒罪，最初被判处15年有期徒刑。但2019年加拿大当局逮捕华为高管孟晚舟一个月后，他在为期一天的重审中被判处死刑。 “Foreigners, like every person in China, are at risk of all kinds of arbitrary detentions and unfair trials,” said Maya Wang, the associate China director at Human Rights Watch. “The universe of cases is really big and we only hear about some of them occasionally.” “就像中国的每一个人一样，外国人面临着各种任意拘留和不公正审判的风险，”人权观察组织中国部副主任王松莲说。“案件的范围非常广泛，我们只是偶尔听到其中一些。” After the release of the two Michaels, people had hoped for a thaw in relations, but that has not taken place on a substantive scale, said Lynette Ong, a professor in Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. 多伦多大学研究中国政治的教授王慧玲表示，在康明凯和斯帕弗获释后，人们曾希望两国关系解冻，但这并没有在实质层面实现。 The timing of these executions is a way for Beijing to keep up the pressure and keep up the leverage over Canada in bilateral discussions, Ms. Ong said. 王慧玲说，这个时候处决犯人是北京在双边谈判中对加拿大保持压力和影响力的一种方式。 Joy Dong自香港、Vjosa Isai自多伦多对本文有报道贡献。 Meaghan Tobin是时报科技记者，常驻台北，报道亚洲地区的商业和科技新闻，重点关注中国。点击查看更多关于她的信息。 翻译：纽约时报中文网 点击查看本文英文版。
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